US natgas prices hold near 2-week high as higher demand offsets higher output

ReutersMay 30, 2025 2:06 PM

US LNG export feedgas down in May after hitting record in April
US gas output falls in May after reaching record last month
US gas storage is about 4% over the five-year normal

By Scott DiSavino

May 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a two-week high on Friday as forecasts for more demand this week offset a lower than previously expected output decline in recent days.

Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.9 cents, or 0.3%, to $3.531 per million British thermal units at 9:13 a.m. EDT (1313 GMT).

For the week, the front-month was up about 6% after holding steady in the prior week.

For the month, the contract was up about 4% after falling 19% in April.

Looking ahead, the premium of futures for October 2025 over November 2025 NGV25-X25 rose to its highest since October 2023 due to bigger increases in the November contract than the October contract. That means the market is likely betting on higher demand and/or lower than average amounts of gas in storage going into next winter.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 105.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 105.8 bcfd in April.

Energy traders said output reductions this month were primarily due to normal spring maintenance on gas pipelines, including U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Energy firms usually work on gas pipes when demand is low in the spring and autumn.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through June 14.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.8 bcfd this week to 96.3 bcfd next week and 100.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall from 14.7 bcfd on Thursday to a preliminary three-week low of 13.9 bcfd on Friday due primarily to reductions at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N plants.

Gas flows to Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana were on track to drop from 3.9 bcfd on Thursday to an 11-month low of 3.7 bcfd on Friday, while feedgas to the company's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas was on track to drop from 2.1 bcfd on Thursday to a two-week low of 1.6 bcfd on Friday.

Energy traders have said they expect total LNG feedgas to remain below April's record high in June with Cheniere planning about three weeks of maintenance on liquefaction trains at Sabine around May 31-June 22.

	Week ended May 30 Forecast	Week ended May 23 Actual	Year ago May 30	Five-year average May 30
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+109	+101	+94	+98
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,585	2,476	2,886	2,481
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.2%	+3.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.52	3.52	2.42	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.64	11.64	10.12	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	12.30	12.47	11.10	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	15	15	27	39	27
U.S. GFS CDDs	152	151	136	125	122
U.S. GFS TDDs	167	166	163	164	149

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	105.5	105.4	105.1	101.7	96.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.6	8.0	7.2	N/A	7.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	113.1	113.4	112.2	N/A	103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.2	1.6	1.5	N/A	2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	8.0	7.8	7.6	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Exports	15.1	15.1	15.0	13.2	10.4
U.S. Commercial	5.6	5.0	4.6	4.7	5.7
U.S. Residential	5.8	4.8	4.0	4.2	6.6
U.S. Power Plant	33.1	32.0	34.0	34.9	29.7
U.S. Industrial	22.6	22.4	22.2	21.6	21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	1.9	1.9	2.0	2.6
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	74.4	71.3	72.1	72.7	71.4
Total U.S. Demand	99.7	95.8	96.3	N/A	90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	81	82	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	81	82	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	83	83	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended May 30	Week ended May 23	2024	2023	2022
Wind	10	13	11	10	11
Solar	8	7	5	4	3
Hydro	8	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	39	33	42	41	38
Coal	15	13	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.97	3.09
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.76	1.95
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.25	3.24
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.69	1.85
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.76	2.90
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	4.00	2.90
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.42	3.63
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.94	1.89
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.26	1.35

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	34.20	40.07
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	37.85	40.64
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	49.01	16.97
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	51.60	40.50
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	36.64	23.66

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

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