Goldman Sachs Expects Solid Supply Growth Outside US Shale To Weigh Further On Oil Prices

May 11 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

• "WE STILL EXPECT BRENT/WTI PRICES TO EDGE DOWN AND AVERAGE $60/56 IN THE REST OF 2025 AND $56/52 IN 2026"

• EXPECTS SOLID SUPPLY GROWTH OUTSIDE US SHALE TO WEIGH FURTHER ON OIL PRICES

• EXPECTS THAT THE GRADUAL FALL IN WTI PRICES TO OUR $51/BBL ESTIMATE OF THE AVERAGE US SHALE BREAKEVEN PRICE WILL DRIVE A 0.5MB/D DROP IN US LOWER 48 CRUDE SUPPLY BY 2026Q4

• EXPECT SOLID EXECUTION OF LONG-CYCLE PROJECTS WITH LOW VARIABLE COSTS IN BRAZIL, THE US GULF, AND GUYANA TO DRIVE STRONG GLOBAL SUPPLY GROWTH EX OPEC, RUSSIA, AND US SHALE OF 1.4MB/D IN 2025 (Q4-Q4)

• EXPECTS EXPECT SLOW BUT NON-RECESSIONARY DEMAND GROWTH OF 0.3MB/D IN 2025 AND 2026 (Q4-Q4 BASIS), AND BELIEVE THAT CHINA OIL DEMAND HAS PEAKED

• SAYS "WE ASSUME THAT OPEC8+ NO LONGER RAISES SUPPLY FROM AUGUST AS WE EXPECT THE DECELERATION IN HARD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY DATA AND OIL DEMAND TO BE NOTICEABLE THEN, BUT BELIEVE THE RISKS TO OUR OPEC8+ SUPPLY PATH REMAIN TO THE UPSIDE, ESPECIALLY IF COMPLIANCE DOESN'T IMPROVE"