US natgas prices slide 2% on mild weather, lower demand

ReutersApr 30, 2025 1:48 PM

U.S. LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high in April
U.S. gas output on track to hit record high in April
U.S. gas storage about 1% below five-year average

April 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks that should allow energy firms to keep injecting lots of gas into storage through mid May.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.9 cents, or 2.3%, to $3.307 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since April 11.

For the month, the contract was down about 20% after gaining about 7% last month.

Analysts project the amount of gas in storage will rise above the five-year normal for this time of year over the next week or two. Gas stockpiles have remained below normal levels since mid-January.

Inventories are about 1% below normal after utilities pulled a record 1.013 bcf of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold. Some analysts said mild weather and record output could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May, breaking the all-time monthly injection high of 494 bcf in May 2015. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day in April from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March.

On a daily basis, gas output fell about 1.5 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-month low of 104.6 bcfd on Wednesday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 15.

Looking ahead, meteorologists at weather company AccuWeather said homes and businesses across much of the U.S. should prepare for higher electricity bills this summer, with overall temperatures expected to be above historical averages across 45 states.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 99.0 bcfd this week to 95.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants operating in the U.S. climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 bcfd in March to 16.0 bcfd so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana.

The United States became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a nine-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and near an 11-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Apr 25 Forecast	Week ended Apr 18 Actual	Year ago Apr 25	Five-year average Apr 25
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+89	88	+64	+58
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,023	1,934	2,476	2,036
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-0.6%	-2.2%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.33	3.39	1.79	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.58	10.61	9.11	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.22	11.28	10.06	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	55	63	62	96	91
U.S. GFS CDDs	67	67	72	60	56
U.S. GFS TDDs	122	130	134	156	147

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.0	105.4	105.5	99.8	97.5
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.3	7.4	7.3	N/A	7.8
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	114.3	112.9	112.9	N/A	105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.5	2.5	2.4	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.9	7.3	7.1	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Exports	15.5	15.7	16.0	12.4	11.8
U.S. Commercial	6.3	6.0	5.6	5.7	11.8
U.S. Residential	7.4	6.9	6.0	6.0	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	30.2	31.0	28.8	33.3	27.5
U.S. Industrial	22.4	22.3	22.2	21.8	23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	1.9	2.0	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	73.6	73.5	69.9	74.2	90.1
Total U.S. Demand	98.6	99.0	95.4	N/A	110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	85	86	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	85	86	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	86	87	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended May 2	Week ended Apr 25	2024	2023	2022
Wind	18	13	11	10	11
Solar	8	8	5	4	3
Hydro	7	8	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	35	36	42	41	38
Coal	14	15	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.17	2.96
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.30	2.22
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.50	2.50
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.26	2.31
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.89	2.56
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.61	2.52
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.80	2.68
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.82	1.52
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.54	1.56

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	37.38	36.00
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	48.85	48.22
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.23	26.60
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	26.00	26.00
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	14.30	9.82

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

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