Goldman Sachs Says Its Base Case For Bal2025/2026 TTF Gas Remains 49/36 EUR/Mwh

March 18 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

• SAYS EUROPEAN GAS MARKETS REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN TIGHT PROMPT PHYSICAL MARKET AND POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED RUSSIAN GAS SUPPLIES FROM POTENTIAL UKRAINE PEACE DEAL

• SAYS ITS BASE CASE FOR BAL2025/2026 TTF REMAINS 49/36 EUR/MWH ($14.90/$10.80/MMBTU)

• SAYS END-MAR25 GAS STORAGE LEVELS ARE SIMPLY TOO LOW FOR EUROPEAN INVENTORIES TO REACH 90% FULL BY END-SUM25

• SAYS STORAGE CAN STILL REACH OVER 80% FULL, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GO THROUGH NEXT WINTER GIVEN THE ONGOING RAMP IN GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY

• SAYS IT BELIEVES POTENTIAL TTF DOWNSIDE IS SIGNIFICANT, CREATING RISK TO US LNG EXPORTS ACROSS SEVERAL SCENARIOS, PARTICULARLY FROM 2026

• SAYS DESPITE PROMPT BALANCE TIGHTNESS, MARKET FACES POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN GAS SUPPLY AVAILABILITY FROM RUSSIA, THOUGH VOLUME AND TIMING REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN