FACTBOX-HSBC forecasts surplus oil in 2025, 2026 on strong supply, sluggish demand growth

March 18 (Reuters) - HSBC expects the oil market to be in a surplus in 2025 and 2026 due to strong supply and sluggish demand growth, the bank said in a note on Tuesday.

The bank said that it expects a surplus of 200,000 barrels per day this year, revising its a previous forecast of a balanced market, which is likely to grow to over one million barrels per day in 2026 if OPEC+ continues to increase production as planned.

The bank continues to expect Brent prices at $73 per barrel this year and $70 per barrel next year, with risks asymmetrically skewed to the downside. While prices are firmly capped on the upside by OPEC+ spare capacity, they could fall if global trade and economic activity slump, especially in light of U.S. tariffs, HSBC said.

The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2025 and 2026 average prices for Brent and WTI (in $ per barrel):

indicates end-of-period forecast

# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision

For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL