Guy Carpenter: Central US outbreak is second-fastest start to thunderstorm wind season

By Isha Marathe

March 17 - (The Insurer) - Unusually high winds and a strong low-pressure system led to a multiday thunderstorm outbreak across Central U.S. over the weekend, ranking 2025 as the second-fastest start to the thunderstorm wind season after 2017, according to an event report from Guy Carpenter.

The period between March 14 and March 16 consisted of 373 hail reports, 1,051 wind reports, 105 tornado reports and a total of 1,500 storm reports.

Over 40 fatalities have been reported across 10 states, with the highest total of 10 in Missouri.

So far, two Enhanced Fujita (EF)-4 tornadoes have been confirmed in Arkansas. The last time more than one EF-4 was reported in the state was March 1997, Guy Carpenter said.

At least 48 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, with 27 of EF-2 strength or higher, at the time of reporting.

The highest recorded wind gust across the three days was in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, with a peak gust of 89 mph as a strong squall line traversed the Northeast U.S. Hail occurred along with individual supercell thunderstorms on March 14 in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois.

Guy Carpenter found that tornado and hail activity is tracking near normal in 2025, with more than 85% of the season still ahead.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center had forecast the multiday severe weather outbreak days in advance and had issued the rare “high risk” potential for severe weather, the top rating on the five-category severe weather forecast scale, verified with multiple EF-3 and EF-4 long-track tornadoes, according to Guy Carpenter.

The powerful winds fanned fires in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and other smaller communities in the state, with over 300 structures damaged or destroyed as of Monday morning.

At least 130 fires across 44 counties broke out at the time of reporting, according to Guy Carpenter.

The threat of tornadoes has diminished in the Great Plains region, but Red Flag fire danger warnings were issued for parts of Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico, the NOAA said.

Extreme fire danger is expected for West Texas and New Mexico on Tuesday, officials said.