US natgas prices slide 2% to 2-week low on record output, Waha turns negative

By Scott DiSavino

March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a two-week low on Monday on record output, negative spot prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas and forecasts for mild weather through early April, which should keep the amount of gas utilities pull from storage to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 12% below normal levels after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS] NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.6 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $4.018 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since February 28.

That futures price decline occurred despite record gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected.

In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian shale in West Texas turned negative for the first time since November 2024 due to pipeline maintenance that trapped gas associated with oil production in the basin.

Traders talked of maintenance on U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N El Paso Natural Gas pipe from Texas, New Mexico and Colorado to California and Arizona and WhiteWater, MPLX MPLX.N and Enbridge's ENB.TO Whistler pipeline from West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

With Permian oil production hitting record highs every year since at least 2016, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, energy firms have had a hard time building gas pipes fast enough to keep up with soaring associated gas output. Permian gas production has also hit record highs every year since at least 2018.

Those pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices to turn negative a record 49 times in 2024. Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 1.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 107.2 bcfd this week to 107.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a one-week low of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a 12-week low of $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

For gas data on the LSE terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSE terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SOL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SOL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: EMPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C