US natural gas prices rebound on bigger storage withdrawal

By Anmol Choubey

March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rebounded on Thursday, recovering from more than a one-week low earlier in the session after a federal report showed last week's storage draw was bigger than expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 2.7 cents, or 0.7% higher, at $4.11 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after hitting their lowest level since March 3 earlier in the session. Prices fell more than 8% in the previous session.

"It (EIA report) just happened to come at an area of key support for the natural gas. The concerns about supply being tighter than anticipated all year are back in the play, so the market has had a big rebound off of the report," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

"Now the key thing is that if they can get back up above $4.27, there's a possibility they can get back up towards the higher high. So even though we're getting some warmer weather, this bigger-than-expected strong draw keeps supplies."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended March 7.

That was bigger than the 54-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with declines of 19 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2020-2024) average draw of 56 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Gas stockpiles remained about 12% below normal levels for this time of the year.

Financial firm LSEG has forecast that average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 111 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106 bcfd next week.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

LSEG estimated there would be 205 heating degree days over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, up from the 198 HDDs estimated on Wednesday. The normal level is 258 HDDs for this time of year.

Canada could impose non-tariff measures such as restricting its oil exports to the U.S. or levying export duties on products if a trade dispute with the U.S. escalates further, Canada's Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Tuesday.

In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada.

Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.7 bcfd since Trump's tariffs were announced, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11-day period from February 21 to March 3, according to LSEG data.

That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023).

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in March, matching the record high hit in February.

U.S. natural gas use is set to continue to hit record highs due to soaring liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand and power consumption from data centers, executives said at a conference this week, while also warning a lack of infrastructure could hurt the industry.

Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose as colder weather drives up gas demand for heating, while the market closely monitors developments on a potential ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia. NG/EU