US natgas prices up 2% to one-week high on lower output, cold forecasts

• US gas storage withdrawals close to record high in January
• US gas production on track for record high in February
• US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February

Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a one-week high on Monday on rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand next week.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 5.3 cents, or 1.5%, to $3.497 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 7:55 a.m. EST (1255 GMT, putting the contract on track for its highest close since January 29 for a second day in a row.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.

But with the return of extreme cold and freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by 2.8 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary two-week low of 103.9 bcfd on Tuesday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

After extreme cold last month boosted heating demand to an all-time high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data.

Without calling it a new all-time high, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a report that energy firms pulled nearly 1,000 bcf of gas out of storage in January.

Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 26.

With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts that average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 132.9 bcfd this week to 138.9 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.2 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit 15.83 bcfd on Tuesday, up from 15.66 bcfd on Monday and an average of 15.05 bcfd over the prior seven days. If correct, Tuesday's high would top the current daily record high of 15.75 bcfd on January 18.

The latest LNG feedgas high came with flows to Venture Global's VG.N 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana set to hit a record 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday.

The United States became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a two-year high of around $18 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and an eight-week high of around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

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For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

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