BUZZ-COMMENT-With Fed, RBA, CPI risks looming AUD/USD bears should tread cautiously

Feb 10 (Reuters) - AUD/USD shorts may have reason to worry after losses driven by President Donald Trump's latest tariff salvo were erased Monday, and more upside could be on the way if bullish risks emerge from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. CPI and the RBA policy decision.

Powell delivers semiannual testimony to Congress Tuesday and Wednesday, but any potentially bullish effects might be blunted by his post-meeting press conference two weeks ago, when he said the Fed doesn't need to be in a hurry to adjust policy as the committee will assess incoming data and the evolving outlook.

Below-estimate Q4 Australia CPI increased the probability the RBA will cut Feb. 18, but that move may have been fully priced in already as the latest CFTC data 1232741NNET indicated net-short positions increased.

Commodity prices have rallied sharply, which may underpin the Australian dollar. Iron-ore DCIOc2 traded at its highest since July after ending a consolidation phase, while copper HGv1 hit a 5-month high after breaking the down trendline off the 2024 yearly high.

Gold's XAU= rally to fresh all-time highs could provide more buoyancy to the Australian dollar.

With Fed and RBA impacts potentially limited, investors will probably focus on U.S. January CPI.

A below-estimate result could drive rates markets to price in deeper cuts from the Fed SRAM26, pushing U.S. yields US10YT=RR lower -- the dollar along with them.

If so, AUD/USD could rally and validate tech signals highlighting upside risks.

Rising RSIs, February's monthly bull hammer and AUD/USD's move above the 10- and 21-day moving averages are bullish.

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