BUZZ-COMMENT-Rand under pressure ahead of central bank decision

Jan 22 (Reuters) - South Africa's Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to cut its key rate by 25-basis points Thursday and despite showing resilience through the post-Trump inauguration volatility, the rand is coming under renewed pressure.

USD/ZAR's recent decline from a 19.2300 nine-month high is attempting to base in the 18.4800-18.4850 area. The daily chart is highlighting volatility with a Tuesday rally to 18.6800 leading into a pullback to 18.5125 by the close.

Early Wednesday price action shows the dollar recovering to 18.5725 and forming a potential bullish engulfing candlestick. The reversal warning would need a close above 18.4950 (Tuesday close) to partially complete and then a bullish Thursday session to confirm the signal. A close below 18.4950 would negate the signal and put the rand back in control.

A minimum retracement of the 19.2300 to 18.4800 drop provides a bull target and resistance point at 18.6570. However, a bearish resumption could gather pace on a break below a key 50% Fibonacci level at 18.4250. The retracement level is taken off the 17.6200-19.2300 Dec. 12-Jan. 3 rally.

A larger than expected SARB rate cut or a no change decision would add further volatility to USD/ZAR and could shape near-term direction.

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(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((peter.stoneham@thomsonreuters.com))