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UPDATE 2-US natgas prices hit over 1-week low on smaller-than-expected gas draw from inventories

ReutersDec 27, 2024 8:18 PM

Updates for market close

- U.S. natural gas futures fell over 5% on Friday, hitting its lowest level in over a week, as a weekly federal report showed a slightly smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal, and as traders booked some profits after prices rose as much as 3% earlier in the session on increasing amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 20.1 cents lower, or 5.7%, to $3.51 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 2:50 p.m. EST (1945 GMT), hitting its lowest level since Dec. 18.

The contract is down about 6.2% so far this week after prices hit $4.01/mmBtu level on Thursday, its highest since Jan 2023.

"We've definitely seen some pullback because of the inventories, we came in -93 billion cubic feet...I think because of the holiday, the market took some profits after the report. The January contract is also probably seeing rollover pressure because January's going off the board here pretty quickly and we have an expiration coming up on that contract," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed utilities pulled a smaller-than-usual 93 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Dec. 20.

That was less than the 98-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 87 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 127 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Financial firm LSEG estimated 399 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 393 estimated on Thursday.

It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping to 141.5 bcfd next week from 119.1 bcfd this week.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November.

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) company Venture Global LNG's tanker Venture Bayou departed the Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana for Germany, carrying the first LNG cargo produced at the facility, the company said on Thursday.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose, supported by forecasts of cold weather in early January and fading hopes for a new deal to transit Russian gas through Ukraine. The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub TRNLTTFMc1 was trading at $14.55 per mmBtu. NG/EU

Week ended Dec 27 Forecast

Week ended Dec 20 Actual

Year ago Dec 20

Five-year average

Dec 20

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-122

-93

-87

-127

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,407

3,529

3,515

3,363

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

4.5%

4.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.85

3.95

2.54

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

14.55

14.08

11.55

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1-

13.97

13.97

14.03

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

399

393

374

427

432

U.S. GFS CDDs

2

2

1

4

3

U.S. GFS TDDs

401

395

375

431

435

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.1

103.1

102.2

105.6

97.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

10.4

9.4

10.2

N/A

8.7

U.S. LNG Imports

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

Total U.S. Supply

113.5

112.6

112.3

N/A

106.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.5

3.6

3.6

N/A

3.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.6

5.6

5.7

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

14.3

14.3

14.6

14.7

10.8

U.S. Commercial

16.4

13.4

18.7

13.8

14.3

U.S. Residential

27.2

21.4

31.6

22.0

23.4

U.S. Power Plant

32.0

28.8

32.8

35.1

30.3

U.S. Industrial

25.3

24.3

6.3

24.7

25.1

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.1

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.9

2.5

3.1

2.8

3.7

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

109.1

95.6

117.6

103.6

102.1

Total U.S. Demand

132.5

119.1

141.5

N/A

121.7

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2003

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

93

94

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

92

93

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

93

94

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Dec 27

Week ended Dec 20

2023

2022

2021

Wind

9

13

10

11

10

Solar

3

3

4

3

3

Hydro

6

6

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

39

39

41

38

37

Coal

20

17

17

21

23

Nuclear

22

21

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.96

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.93

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.75

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.69

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.63

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

6.75

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.93

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.13

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.73

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com;))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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