UPDATE 1-US natgas prices retreat from 2-year peak on forecasts of less cold

ReutersDec 26, 2024 8:13 PM

Updates for market close

Dec 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 5% on Thursday from a near two-year high in holiday-thinned trade as forecasts for less cold conditions in the short term overshadowed support from a rise in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 23.1 cents lower, or 5.9%, to $3.715 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) 03:06 p.m. EST (2006 GMT) after hitting their highest level since January 2023 earlier in the session.

"This morning we're pulling back, mainly because there is some doubt as to how cold January will be and we are definitely going to see a bit of a warm-up at the start of the year," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Financial firm LSEG forecast 393 heating degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the 10-year normal of 427 HDDs and 30-year normal of 432 HDDs.

It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, falling to 119.8 bcfd next week from 132.9 bcfd this week.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

Meanwhile, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) company Venture Global LNG's tanker Venture Bayou has departed the Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana for Germany, carrying the first LNG cargo produced at the facility, the company said on Thursday.

Elsewhere, Alexei Miller, the head of Russia's Gazprom, said the group's natural gas production is set to rise this year by 61 billion cubic metres (bcm) to around 416 bcm.

	Week ended Dec 20 Forecast	Week ended Dec 13 Actual	Year ago Dec 20	Five-year average Dec 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-98	-125	-87	-127
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,524	3,622	3,515	3,363
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	4.8%	3.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2023	Five-Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.95	3.76	2.54	2.66	3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1		14.08	11.55	13.04	14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	13.97	13.99	14.03	14.39	14.31


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	393	376	374	427	432
U.S. GFS CDDs	2	3	1	4	3
U.S. GFS TDDs	395	379	375	431	435

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2019-2023)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	103.4	103	102.7	105.6	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.5	10.4	9.4	N/A	8.7
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
Total U.S. Supply	112.9	113.5	112.1	N/A	106.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.5	3.5	3.5	N/A	3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.8	5.6	5.7	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Exports	14.0	14.3	14.4	14.7	10.8
U.S. Commercial	14.4	16.4	13.3	13.8	14.3
U.S. Residential	23.4	27.3	21.3	22.0	23.4
U.S. Power Plant	30.9	32.3	29.6	35.1	30.3
U.S. Industrial	24.7	25.3	24.2	24.7	25.1
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.7	2.9	2.6	2.8	3.7
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Consumption	101.5	109.4	96.2	103.6	102.1
Total U.S. Demand	124.7	132.9	119.8	N/A	121.7

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2003 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	95	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	93	93	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	94	95	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Dec 27	Week ended Dec 20	2023	2022	2021
Wind	9	13	10	11	10
Solar	3	3	4	3	3
Hydro	5	6	6	6	7
Other	1	1	2	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	39	39	41	38	37
Coal	20	17	17	21	23
Nuclear	22	21	19	19	20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL		3.10
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL		8.22
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL		3.45
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL		2.79
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL		2.86
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL		15.69
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL		3.46
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL		2.39
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL		1.68

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL		53.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL		35.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL		27.88
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL		36.83
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL		45.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL		45.25

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter)

((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com;))

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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

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NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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