퓨어사이클 테크놀로지스(PCT) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 매출 감소 속 브랜드 수요 확대

퓨어사이클 테크놀로지스(NASDAQ: PCT)는 운영 신뢰성 문제로 판매 가능 생산량이 제약을 받고 뉴저지주가 식품 접촉용 재활용 원료 사용 의무화 기한을 연기함에 따라 2026년 3분기 매출이 전분기 대비 감소했다고 발표했다. 경영진은 공장 내 두 가지 문제가 모두 해결되었으며, 브랜드 제품 수주와 비용 절감이 아이언턴 공장 가동률 확대(램프업)의 다음 단계를 뒷받침하고 있다고 밝혔다.

핵심 요약

• 2026년 3분기 매출은 230만 달러로, 2026년 2분기의 450만 달러 및 전년 동기의 240만 달러에서 감소했다.
• 정제 생산량은 전분기 450만 파운드에서 520만 파운드로 증가했다. 경영진은 생산을 제한하고 제품 품질에 영향을 미쳤던 두 가지 신뢰성 문제가 해결되었다고 밝혔다.
• 순이익은 신주인수권 공정가치 변동에 따른 비현금성 이익 5,860만 달러를 포함해 690만 달러를 기록했다. 영업손실은 3,750만 달러였으며, 조정 EBITDA는 마이너스 2,800만 달러를 기록했다.
• 월평균 운영 지출은 780만 달러로, 회사가 이전에 제시한 800만~900만 달러 범위를 밑돌았으며 2분기의 840만 달러보다 감소했다.
• 상업적 협상 또는 최종 적격성 평가 단계에 있는 프로그램은 전면 가동 시 연간 4,500만~5,500만 파운드의 잠재 물량에 해당한다. 경영진은 이는 아이언턴 공장 가동률의 약 40~50%에 달하며, 해당 공장을 손익분기점에 근접하게 만들 것이라고 밝혔다.
• 분기 말 기준 유동성은 총 1억 9,300만 달러였다. 미인출 상태인 2억 달러 규모의 회전신용한도를 포함하면 가용 유동성은 3억 9,300만 달러였다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

아이언턴 공장의 두 가지 신뢰성 문제로 3분기 생산이 제한되고 일부 생산품의 품질이 저하되어 브랜드 고객사 대상 출하가 중단됐다. 퓨어사이클은 현재 두 문제가 모두 해결됐으며, 공장이 목표 가동 시간에 맞춰 운영되고 있고 생산은 현재 상업적 수요에 부합하고 있다고 밝혔다.

분기 종료 후 브랜드 상업화가 진전을 보였다. 핫리드(뜨거운 음료용 뚜껑) 프로그램은 10월에 첫 화차 단위 구매 주문을 받았으며, 경영진은 전면 가동 시 연간 700만~800만 파운드에 달할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 철도 화차 1량에는 약 19만~20만 파운드가 적재된다.

로레알은 100% 재활용 원료를 사용하는 샴푸 캡용으로 퓨어파이브(PureFive)의 적격성을 승인했으며, 4분기에 출하가 시작될 예정이다. 착색 가능한 캡과 관련된 두 번째 적용 제품도 진행 중이다. 프록터앤드갬블(P&G)의 일부 다우니 및 타이드 세제 병 뚜껑은 이미 매장에 진열되었으며, 게인 제품도 뒤를 이을 예정인 가운데 2단계 적용 작업이 진행되고 있다.

퓨어사이클은 데오도란트 스틱 및 필름 분야의 진전도 보고했다. 한 대형 퍼스널케어 기업은 11월 최종 상업 규모 시험을 조건으로 데오도란트 스틱용 화이트 등급을 승인했다. 11월 초 브랜드 스낵 필름 시험이 성공적으로 완료됐으며, 해당 분기 동안 12개의 신규 필름 프로그램이 시작됐다.

적격성 평가를 통과한 적용 분야는 6월 말 10개에서 20개로 두 배 늘어났다. 10월 말 기준 7월 이후 최소 한 단계 이상 진전된 프로그램은 67개에 달했으며, 아시아태평양 지역에서 19개의 신규 프로그램이 개시됐다.

회사는 11월부터 WM과 연간 최대 2,500만 파운드 규모의 3년 원료 공급 계약을 체결했다. 경영진은 이번 계약을 통해 아이언턴 공장 공급 원료의 일부를 확보하고 운영을 단순화하며 폴리프로필렌 수율을 개선할 수 있다고 밝혔다.

경영진 가이던스

퓨어사이클은 지난 8월에 언급했던 연말 기준 목표 가동률(exit rate)을 2026년 중에 달성하기는 어려울 것으로 보고 있으나, 향후 해당 수준에 도달할 것이라는 전망은 유지했다. 고객사 공급 전망치와 프로그램별 가동 확대 일정이 아직 수립 중이라는 이유로 분기 매출 가이던스는 제시하지 않았다.

경영진은 4분기에 브랜드 제품 매출이 증가하고 있다고 밝혔다. 일부 프로그램은 1분기에 전면 가동에 도달할 수 있으며, 다른 프로그램들은 1분기와 2분기에 걸쳐 가동 확대를 이어갈 것으로 예상된다.

4분기 프로젝트 지출은 태국 자금 조달에 연계된 지출을 제외하고 약 400만 달러로 예상된다. 2026년 연간 프로젝트 지출은 기존 전망치인 4,500만~5,000만 달러에서 상향된 약 5,100만 달러가 될 것으로 예상된다. 4분기 원리금 상환액은 약 940만 달러로 예상된다.

회사는 월간 운영 지출이 추가로 감소할 것으로 예상했으나 구체적인 목표치는 제시하지 않았다. 경영진은 또한 아이언턴 공장의 손익분기점 달성이나 전사 조정 EBITDA 기준 손익분기점 달성 시점에 대해 일정을 밝히지 않았다.

2억 5,000만 달러 규모의 태국 프로젝트에 대해 퓨어사이클은 이미 장비 및 초기 엔지니어링에 8,500만 달러 이상이 투자됐다고 밝혔다. 건축 허가는 발급됐으며, 회사는 구속력 있는 조건표(binding term sheet)에 따라 최종 자금 조달 조건을 조율 중이다. 본격적인 착공은 금융 계약 체결(financial close) 이후 시작될 것으로 예상되며, 자금 조달이 확보될 때까지 추가적인 재량 지출은 중단된 상태다.

리스크 및 주목할 점

뉴저지주가 식품 접촉용 원료 사용 규제 면제 기한을 2027년에서 2030년으로 연장함에 따라, 전면 가동 시 연간 약 5,000만 파운드의 예상 물량에 해당하는 약 15개 프로그램이 지연됐다. 경영진은 현재 4,500만~5,500만 파운드 규모의 파이프라인 중 약 1,000만 파운드가 여전히 뉴저지주 수요와 연관돼 있으며, 추가로 500만~1,000만 파운드는 2027년 전망에 편입될 수 있다고 밝혔다. 약 3,000만 파운드는 여전히 보류되거나 지연된 상태다.

고객사 적격성 평가 과정은 여전히 장기간 소요되고 있다. 경영진은 이 과정이 1년 이상 걸리는 경우가 많고 고객사 내 10~15개 부서가 관여할 수 있다고 언급했다. 따라서 상업화 시점은 최종 테스트, 브랜드 승인, 계약 체결 및 고객사의 생산 확대 일정에 따라 좌우된다.

대형 브랜드는 모든 제조 배치와 화차에 걸쳐 신뢰할 수 있는 품질과 공급을 요구하기 때문에 생산의 일관성 또한 매우 중요하다. 경영진은 3분기 신뢰성 문제가 근본적으로 해결됐다고 밝혔으나, 적격성 획득을 반복적인 매출로 전환하기 위해서는 아이언턴 공장의 실행력이 여전히 핵심이다.

태국 공장 건설은 수용 가능한 조건으로 프로젝트 파이낸싱을 완료하는 데 달려 있다. 회사는 자금 조달이 마무리될 때까지 지출이 제한적인 수준에 머물 것이라고 밝혔다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 연간 4,500만~5,500만 파운드의 잠재 수요 중 약 3분의 1은 계약 완료, 3분의 1은 계약 임박, 3분의 1은 조건 협의 중이나 아직 미체결 상태라고 설명했다. 구체적으로는 약 1,000만~1,400만 파운드가 계약 체결 상태이고, 추가로 1,000만 파운드는 계약이 임박했으며, 약 2,000만 파운드는 조건 협의가 진행됐다. 해당 물량은 약 6~8개 고객사에 분산돼 있다.

경영진은 해당 물량이 스팟(일회성) 구매가 아닌 반복적인 브랜드 프로그램으로 기획됐음을 강조했다. 가격 및 매출 논의는 상당 부분 진행됐으며, 회사는 해당 물량이 합산되면 아이언턴 공장이 손익분기점에 근접할 것으로 보고 있으나 구체적인 달성 시점은 약속하지 않았다.

비용 측면과 관련해 도널드 카펜터 최고재무책임자(CFO)는 도급업체 및 임시 인력 축소, 유지보수 및 기타 서비스 내재화, 실제 물량에 맞춘 물류 및 보관 최적화, 2027년 현장 질소 공급 설비 구축 등을 통해 절감이 이뤄지고 있다고 설명했다. 본사 기능 역시 직무를 통합하고 프로세스 자동화를 확대하고 있다.

뉴저지주 규제와 관련해 경영진은 이번 규제 기한 연장이 영구적인 수요 상실이 아닌 지연에 해당한다고 설명했다. 일부 브랜드는 자체 지속가능성 목표에 따라 재활용 원료 사용 프로그램을 이어가고 있는 반면, 다른 브랜드는 도입 속도를 늦추거나 연기한 상태다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

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전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the PureCycle Technologies Third Quarter 2026 Corporate Update Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Eric DeNatale, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Eric DeNatale

Thanks, Char. I am Eric DeNatale, Director of Investor Relations for PureCycle. And joining me on the call today are Dustin Olson, our Chief Executive Officer; and Donald Carpenter, our Chief Financial Officer. This evening, we will be highlighting our corporate developments for the third quarter of 2026.

The presentation we'll be going through on this call can also be found on the Investor tab of our website at purecycle.com. Many of the statements made today will be forward-looking and are based on management's beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to management at this time. The statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which may be beyond our control, including those set forth in our safe harbor provisions and forward-looking statements that can be found at the end of our third quarter 2026 press release issued this evening as well as in other reports on file with the SEC that provide further detail about the risks related to our business.

Additionally, please note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Our remarks today may also include preliminary non-GAAP estimates and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including, among other things, changes in connection with quarter end and year-end adjustments. Any variation between PureCycle's actual results and the preliminary financial data set forth herein may be material. You're welcome to follow along with our slide deck or if joining us by phone, you can access it at any time at purecycle.com.

With that, I will now turn it over to Dustin Olson, PureCycle's Chief Executive Officer.

Dustin Olson

Thanks, Eric, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter call. This is a quarter of real progress at PureCycle. We solved 2 reliability issues that held back production. branded railcar orders started in October, a large global cosmetics company has announced its work with us, and our costs came in below the range given to you priorly.

The quarter itself fell short, but the business is in a stronger position today than it was in August. Revenue came in below what planned. We still expect to reach the exit rate we talked about in August, but not in 2026.

Two things primarily hurt us in Q3. First, 2 reliability issues at Ironton limited production in the third quarter, and they also affected the quality of much of what we made, which meant we could not ship to branded customers for their ramps. That was disappointing, but the important thing is that we solved both of them, and those are 2 of the biggest wins of the quarter. Production is now in line with current commercial demand and the plant is running at our targeted onstream times.

Second, New Jersey extended its food contact deadline in early September. Much of our selling effort for the second half of the year was focused on closing the food contact programs and the extension moved about 15 of them. Roughly 50 million pounds of expected annual volume when at full ramp came out of this year.

Earlier in the year, a large share of what we sold was unbranded material. We have to run the plant ahead of branded demand, both to learn and also be ready when branded orders come. And the unbranded sales are how we clear the inventory rather than store it. Those sales carry very low margins, so whether we sell more or less in the quarter has very little effect on the results. What matters is branded sales, a product a brand has qualified with its name on it.

This is the volume that takes Ironton to breakeven and the volume we build on in 2027 and beyond. Despite New Jersey, that ramp has started in earnest. What has happened since is why I'm encouraged. Our selling effort is now focused on nonfood programs that are furthest along, and they are converting. Branded railcar purchase orders came in October from a very large customer. A large global cosmetics company has announced its work with us, and we expect shipments to begin in the fourth quarter.

Our monthly operations spending came in below the range we previously gave you, and our qualified applications have doubled since the end of June from 10 to 20. Our goals have not changed. Get Ironton through breakeven, prove the unit economics and grow from there.

And yesterday, Fernando Musa became our Executive Chairman. Fernando has been supporting PureCycle as a director for the last 5 years. We have a great working relationship. He has deep experience scaling new technologies and new products, and I can't wait to start digging in with him on a daily basis. I will say more about his role at the end of my remarks.

The plant turnaround in April addressed production rate and reliability across a number of projects and the rate test afterward confirmed the improvements held. As we ramped in the third quarter, we worked through 2 reliability issues. Both are solved and the plant has been running well.

The lower production in the quarter is why we did not have inventory to meet our internal revenue goals. From here, production follows customer orders. As programs convert and ramp, production increases with them. We know how to run our plant, and we know how to make products that our customers want. Our relationships with large brands depend on consistency. These companies are highly sensitive to supply disruption. Having earned their qualification, the job is now to supply each of them reliably through specification on time with every batch and every railcar.

That is one of the main reasons we brought compounding on site, an important investment that we made this year. It is available around the clock, we load directly into railcars, and we make exactly what the customer wants with more than 20 grades formulated in-house. A year ago, a customer's material went to an outside compounder with poor reliability and sample quality. Today, it goes straight to our compounding line on site. We adjust the formulation during the run and the next sample ships with the right documentation and certifications. The product shows it.

One of our senior quality leaders told me recently that Ironton is making the best product that we've ever made, and I agree. Color used to be one of our biggest challenges, and now it's a selling point. A brand does not want 15 different shades of blue at the top of a laundry bottle, and now we know the color they want lot after lot. That control is the biggest single reason qualifications move faster this year.

We continue to make incremental improvements at Ironton. For a long time, the priority was solving the problems of a first-of-its-kind plant and our spending reflected that. With the plant running more consistently, we have found real efficiency on how we spend, and it is beginning to show in the monthly operations spend.

We also signed a 3-year feedstock agreement with WM, the largest recycler in North America for up to 25 million pounds a year beginning this month. We have purchased #5 bales from WM for years, and we've run a few circularity programs with them at sporting events. Most polypropylene feedstock is still bought in the spot market, so a contract like this has been rare, and it secures a portion of supply for 3 years. It also simplifies our operations and improves the polypropylene yield. The relationship is broader than feedstock.

WM has deep relationships with the brands whose packaging ends up in bins, and we're working with WM on circularity programs with those brands. What WM collects, we purify and it goes back into the same product. We do not down cycle, we up cycle. And now we have contracted feedstock, commercial scale purification and on-site compounding in one company. And that combination is why brands can qualify us and we can supply them.

In early September, New Jersey extended the food contact exemption from 2027 to 2030. About 15 food contact programs moved into 2027 and beyond. Some of those brands are continuing on their own timetable and others have deferred. Two of those programs are quick service restaurant clear cold cups. They were fast tracked and qualified over the summer after New Jersey's conditional approval of PureFive in May and then moved out of the fourth quarter into 2027 after New Jersey's food exemption extension. The delay was disappointing, but we qualified. We are ready to ship and the customers continue to show interest in our volume. We expect both programs to begin in the first half of '27.

New Jersey did not change the mandate for nonfood rigid containers, which steps up to 20% recycled content in January 2027. That covers items such as storage totes and containers for detergents and household cleaning supplies. That is where we have redirected our selling effort with initial positive results in October.

In California, they're also adding incentives. Under its packaging law, SB 54, the latest plan submitted by Circular Action Alliance pays $500 a ton from 2027 for post-consumer recycled polypropylene certified by the Association of Plastic Recyclers. It also applies to film. Both states count purified resin because it comes from a physical plastic-to-plastic recycling process and a certified recycled content. Mass balance credits, which are based on bookkeeping rather than physical content, do not count and that works in our favor.

Recycling is not going away. Recycled content regulation has kept moving forward through changes in the administration. Even when ESG has been out of favor, the long-term direction has not changed. I have personally spent a lot of time this year with candidates for governor across several states and the support for domestic recycling, manufacturing jobs and keeping plastic out of landfills came through clearly in every one of those conversations.

Regulation creates urgency, but it's not the only thing driving demand. Two of our larger opportunities, hot lids and deodorant sticks are being driven by the brand's own commitments, not by a state mandate. And the 2 quick-service restaurant cup programs are still moving forward after New Jersey's extension because those brands want recycled content in their packaging regardless of deadline.

For the past year, we have reported on programs as they move through trials toward contract. And this first phase of commercialization taught us how long this cycle typically takes. It is well over a year from the first trial to the program.

A brand qualification runs through 10 to 15 groups inside the customer and every late or offset sample costs precious time. This quarter, the branded programs are converting, and they're converting into ongoing demand for Ironton, not spot purchases. The hot lids program is the best example. We've worked on this for over a year with a compounder that supplies multiple QSR chains. The customers change direction more than once. And when they came back to recycle content, we were the first in line with the color and processing work already done at the lab and industrial scale, a customer with a bag, then a box, then a truck and then a railcar.

A railcar holds about 190,000 to 200,000 pounds and a customer only buys at that level when it trusts every car will match what it tested. Trucks went into the third quarter, the first railcar purchase orders came in October, and the program is expected to reach 7 million to 8 million pounds a year once fully ramped.

A large global cosmetics company has qualified PureFive for shampoo closures, and we expect to begin shipping the resin this quarter. The closures will be made with 100% recycled content. This was a demanding specification, and it had to work on a living hinge cap to match and match the brand's clear and translucent colors. That qualification took well over a year, and it closed because it made the product because we could make a product that behaved exactly like the one it was replacing.

The second application with the same customer, colorable closures is underway, and it should move faster because the people, the questions and the trust are already in place. Procter & Gamble caps for select detergent bottles were on shelves across Downy and Tide brands. Gain is coming next. And it was another color match that we got right. Phase 2 of our work with Procter & Gamble is underway. It is another set of applications larger and equally recognizable. You would find these applications in your home, and we look forward to sharing more about them in the future.

What Procter taught us carries to every customer behind them. We have an inventory depth of certified warehouse, lot-to-lot consistency and the agreed test methods. So questions like a new customer ask are the ones that we've already answered.

A large global personal care company, one of the world's largest consumer product companies, has approved our white for deodorant sticks. The November trial is the last of many industrial scale processing runs. When it passes, the brand tells the converter to start, the converter tells us to ship and the converter then can offer that same grade to other customers inside of its own portfolio. This is how one approval can lead to several programs. This is a very large program, and I believe we are close.

The 2 quick-service restaurant cup programs are qualified with the converter. That means our material has run on their lines at industrial scale and passed their test. And the converter, which works with these restaurants every single day has done the review. What remains is the brand's own review and the supply agreement, which is under negotiation.

Film is the application insiders said could not be done, and now we're doing it. You cannot take a rigid plastic and mechanically recycle it into a film because it is -- because of what is in the feed will end up in the film and it doesn't work technically. We are different. We purify at the molecular level, so we can. We proved at the pilot scale last year with Bruckner and on the commercial line this year. Our snack film trial with the brand was completed successfully in early November and 12 new film programs have opened in the quarter. We already produced clear film grades and no one else can supply them at scale.

Film as a global market represents billions of pounds a year that no recycler has been able to touch, and we're on the cusp of fundamentally changing how people view the recyclability of film. The initial batch of branded programs represent about 12 million pounds of expected volume at full ramp. And the programs in commercial contract negotiation or final qualification add up to a total of 45 million to 55 million pounds a year at full ramp, which would approach about 40% to 50% utilization that we've described at Ironton.

This is a mix of both neat product as well as compounded product. And I believe this combination of programs that add up to the 45 million to 55 million pounds a year get us pretty close to Ironton breakeven. A large global cosmetics company has also announced its work with PureCycle in a LinkedIn post.

New Jersey's actions set our pipeline back in September and some metrics declined that month. By the end of October, 67 programs had advanced at stage since July. Qualified applications have doubled from 10 to 20 and 19 new programs had opened in Asia Pacific. The setback was real, but our team adjusted and the forward progress is also real.

We're working through the final terms and conditions of the Thailand project financing now, and we'll announce financial close at signing. We have already invested more than $85 million of the $250 million project in equipment and initial engineering. The construction permit was issued in September and groundbreaking and full construction will follow financial close.

In October, I spent 2 weeks with government representatives, the banks, our partners and going through the capital cost and schedule in detail and remain very confident in the $250 million estimate. The Rayong site sits inside of an operating complex, so the roads, utilities and site services already exist. This is why Line 1 will be cost effective. And the infrastructure built alongside that first line is why the second line there should cost materially less than the first.

Local and Southeast Asian demand is real as well. Converters in Thailand make packaging for brands in the United States, Europe and Japan that want recycled content, and they can't find it. They see our plant as a way for them to win the business. On the supply side, the collectors already sort polypropylene alongside PET and polyethylene, but they've got nowhere to go with it. When the plant was built, the stranded polypropylene stream will finally have a home and a circular life.

We have built the foundation to grow beyond Ironton with Thailand first, and then we are going to manage our growth spend prudently. Our other growth projects reached internal milestones in 2026 and discretionary spending on them is on hold until commercial progress at Ironton supports the further investment. With that, I'll turn the call over to Donald.

Donald Carpenter

Thank you, Dustin. Revenue for the third quarter was $2.3 million compared to $4.5 million in the second quarter and $2.4 million a year ago. The sequential decline reflects the operational issues in the quarter that limited the material we had to sell and the New Jersey delays that Dustin described.

Purified production was 5.2 million pounds, up from 4.5 million pounds in the second quarter. Production is now in line with current commercial demand. And as Dustin said, it will follow customer orders from here. Net income for the quarter was $6.9 million, which includes a $58.6 million noncash gain on the change in fair value of our warrants compared to a net loss of $28.4 million a year ago.

Operating loss was $37.5 million against $38.9 million in the third quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $28 million, an improvement of $0.6 million year-over-year. Monthly operations spending averaged $7.8 million in the quarter. That is below the $8 million to $9 million range we gave you and down from $8.4 million per month in the second quarter. As before, it covers cash spend on operations and corporate costs on a consistent basis for all periods. It excludes materials purchases meaning feedstock, virgin polypropylene and compounding additives, which were approximately $2.7 million per month, and it excludes severance and other implementation costs.

We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $193 million, made up of $109 million in cash and cash equivalents, $71.4 million in marketable securities and $12.6 million in restricted cash. That compares to $236.9 million at the end of the second quarter. Including the undrawn $200 million revolving credit facility, total available liquidity was $393 million.

Ongoing operations and corporate spend was $31.4 million, which reflects the $7.8 million per month of operation spending plus $2.7 million per month of materials. Project spend was $13 million with $5.7 million at Ironton, $2.6 million for Antwerp, $2 million for Thailand and $2.7 million elsewhere. Debt service was $3.3 million, including the $1 million fee to extend the revolver. Cash from customers was $4.2 million and working capital and other items were a use of $0.4 million.

Project spend through 9 months was $47.6 million. We expect fourth quarter project spend of approximately $4 million, and it excludes any spend that depends on the Thailand financing. That puts full year project spend at approximately $51 million compared with the $45 million to $50 million range we gave in August. We expect fourth quarter debt service of approximately $9.4 million, which consists mainly of the December revenue bond payment. The first coupon on the 4.75% notes is payable in January and equipment financing payments concluded in September.

The lower operational spending reflects the work of our teams. At Ironton, the team has come to understand the plant much better, and they are taking on more work than outside firms used to do. That means relying more on our own maintenance team and less on contractors and temporary labor, bringing outside services in-house, sizing logistics and storage to actual volumes and moving to on-site nitrogen supply in 2027.

In our corporate functions, people are absorbing more of the work as we consolidate certain roles and set outside services to a routine level. We are implementing cost efficiencies across the organization. Capital at Ironton is limited to committed work and to projects that lower our operating costs. The results should show in monthly operations spending each quarter.

We will give a 2027 project spend range with our fourth quarter results. It depends mainly on the timing of the Thailand financing and growth spending overall is directionally lower. Our capital structure is unchanged from the June refinancing. In August, we extended the maturity of the $200 million revolving credit facility to September 30, 2028, and it remains undrawn.

Beyond cash and the revolver, potential future sources are approximately $76 million of revenue bonds we hold and equipment financing on prep equipment with an original cost of $67.3 million. We do not assume either in our liquidity plan. The Thailand investment incentives are in place and the construction permit was issued in September. More than $85 million of the $250 million project is already invested in equipment and engineering and full construction starts once the financing closes. We are working through the final terms now, and we will announce financial close at signing.

Our other growth projects are ready for their next step. The work we did in 2026 took them to the point where the next step is a larger commitment, and that is the natural point to hold discretionary spending while Ironton ramps. This is a deliberate capital decision, not a change in our plan. It keeps our capital focused on Ironton today. And because the groundwork is done, we can move quickly into the next phase as commercial progress at Ironton supports it.

To close, spending is coming down. And while Ironton ramps, growth spending is limited to Thailand and the committed cost of our other projects. With that, back to you, Dustin.

Dustin Olson

Thanks, Donald. We have 4 priorities for the fourth quarter and into 2027. First, deliver on customer orders. The orders are in hand, shipments have begun and the work now is to ship them consistently. Second, convert the programs closest to contract. We're in final contracting in some large nonfood programs. Third, keep reducing costs. Monthly operations spend came in at $7.8 million in the third quarter, and we expect continued progress. Cost is largely in our control and the lower our cost, the less revenue we need to break even, the stronger the unit economics we prove and the less capital the business requires.

We also believe future plants, Thailand, in particular, will have lower cost than Ironton. So every improvement here carries forward. That is how we reduce the cash the business uses by growing branded sales on a lower cost structure, and that remains the goal. Finally, close the Thailand financing. The incentives and construction permit are in place, and we are working through the final terms now.

As I mentioned at the start, Fernando Musa, who has been on our Board since 2021, has stepped into the role of Executive Chairman. Fernando ran Braskem America, the leading polypropylene producer in the United States and then ran Braskem globally. He joined Braskem the year it launched its renewable polyethylene, and he helped take the product from first plant to the shelves on consumer brands. Scaling a business is what he does best.

I've said many times how proud I am of the strength of our Board. It's a differential asset. And we've done this before. When Ironton had operational problems to solve in 2022, the Board brought in Dan Coombs as Executive Chairman, and the plant came through the start-up with his help. Fernando steps into the same role for commercial ramp. I couldn't be more thankful for the support that Dan provided us to get us -- to get the plant up and running and to serve as Chairman or more excited to partner with Fernando. Having Fernando alongside our management team makes us a stronger company.

Our plan for this year counted on New Jersey food contact programs to reach breakeven. And the extension took about 50 million pounds a year of that demand off the table, but we didn't slow down. We moved quickly to the rest of the pipeline. And because it is broad, we were able to redirect the programs outside of New Jersey and outside food contact. Those customers were not waiting on us, so the shift takes time, but it is working. The programs we are shipping, contracting or qualifying would approach 40% to 50% of Ironton utilization at full ramp. At the same time, we're cutting costs, which lowers the volume we need. We are growing branded revenue and cutting costs, and I believe this will get us to Ironton breakeven. The pipeline is there and the customers are pulling.

Now at this time, I would like to hand it back over to Char so we can open the phone to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Andres Sheppard of Cantor Fitzgerald.

질의응답

Andres Sheppard-Slinger

Congrats on the quarter. Dustin, I wanted to start maybe with the L'Oreal post. Congratulations, very exciting to see a global brand putting its name next to yours publicly. I guess I'm wondering, can you talk a bit more about that relationship? How do the first applications come together? And more importantly, what comes next with them?

Dustin Olson

Yes. Thanks, Andres. L'Oreal is a really exciting project for us. If you recall, L'Oreal has been a strong supporter of PureCycle for a long time. I mean, probably approaching a decade. They took volume out of the FEU. They trialed early samples. They saw the promise of the technology early, and they leaned in and stayed with us.

L'Oreal is also one of those customers that's just -- it's got one of the most recognizable highest quality brands in the world. And it demands a high-quality product. And so similar to what happened with Procter & Gamble in terms of the length it takes to qualify, I mean, L'Oreal basically holds to the similar standards. And so it took a while to get qualified, but we went through all the processes. We spent the time required to get the analytical results, the processing results the brand approval results. And ultimately, we delivered a product that has great color, great opacity, great processability, and it's going to be used in some of the products.

I mean -- quite frankly, I'm thankful to L'Oreal for continuing to develop this relationship with PureCycle. And I'm just ecstatic to have our name next to theirs on the shelves. I can tell you from a personal perspective that my daughters buy a lot of their products. And so our household will be buying PureCycle product back via that channel as well.

Andres Sheppard-Slinger

Very helpful. And maybe just as a quick follow-up, Dustin, I do want to maybe touch on New Jersey. So New Jersey clearly had a real impact on the quarter. Similar question, can you give us a bit more color on maybe what happened there? And what does the path forward look like?

Dustin Olson

Yes. I mean New Jersey is disappointing, okay? We have built a pipeline around New Jersey. We had an extremely strong fourth quarter plan for PureCycle because of New Jersey. And when they made that decision in September, quite frankly, it shocked us. We were very surprised by that move, and we had to pivot, okay?

Now PureCycle's product is very diverse. It can be used in lots of different applications. It can be used virtually in any polypropylene application. And because of the work that we've done technically to prove that, like we've got a pipeline available to backfill for what we lost in New Jersey. I mean 50 million pounds on 107 million pound plant is a lot of volume, okay? But being able to replace that with contracts that add up to 45 million to 55 million pounds in a relatively short order is no small feat, and it's a real credit to the quality of our product and what our team can do.

With New Jersey, we're in steadfast alignment with New Jersey. We talk to them all the time. We've had numerous conversations with all levels of officials in the state all the way from the New Jersey DEP and up to the Governor, okay? We've had lots of conversations there. And early on, we got a lot of strong progress with them with getting our product counted as recyclable. But then this decision to delay the food quality mandate was challenging for us. I've been to several conferences since this broke, and I've talked to just a lot of people in the industry on how this impacted them. And I think this has had a pretty wide impact across the country.

The reality is a lot of converters, a lot of brands, a lot of suppliers have put a tremendous amount of time, capital, effort, blood, sweat and tears into getting ready for that regulation. And when it pulled, it pulled a lot of supply off the table, a lot of demand off the table, which led to a reduction in supply, not just at PureCycle, but at a lot of companies across the spectrum.

I think there's going to be a lot of movement with New Jersey. I think that a lot of independent industry associations, whether it be truck drivers or it's plastic recycling associations or brand associations, I think there's a lot of lobbying happening in New Jersey right now. Quite frankly, there's some pretty simple things that we can do to get the ball rolling rather than wait for 3 years, but we have to wait and see.

At the end of the day, it is disappointing for Q3, and it will be disappointing for Q4 as well. But it's not really an indication of what's to come. Recycling is not going away. You see regulations dropping all over the world, okay? We obviously see California. We've seen Colorado, Washington, Oregon, who knows what happens in the future political climate. You even see things happening in Europe and in Asia. In Asia, it's almost unheard of to see this sort of thing happened. We see a lot of interest with companies in Canada because they have regulations there. And quite frankly, Mexico is also leaning towards some regulations as well.

So this is a delay and not a devastation. And so we're well prepared for it. I think we pivoted really nicely in Q3, and I think that you'll be pleased with the results irrespective of what happened in New Jersey.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global Advisors.

Hassan Ahmed

Before I get into my question, I just wanted to congratulate Fernando on his appointment as Executive Chairman. I've known him for years, have a lot of respect for him, going all the way back to the Braskem days. And congratulations to you guys for him to be involved at PCT.

So my first question, Dustin, just around this 45 million to 55 million pounds of annualized demand that you guys highlighted, just want to understand how much of that is already under firm purchase orders or binding contracts versus still, call it, in qualification or under negotiation?

Dustin Olson

Yes. So I had a little cheat sheet here, so I'm going to do some math on the run. We've got about 10 million to 14 million pounds that are under good contracts, okay? We've got another 10 million pounds that's very close to being contracted. And the final 20 million contract terms have been discussed, but it's not signed yet, okay? So I would probably characterize that as 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, okay, nearly. But all 3 of the 1/3 are having contract negotiations for contracted demand.

So this is not spot. This is not like a railcar here and a railcar there. This is steady demand that's been approved by the brand that will deliver month over month over month. And like I said, when you look at -- because we've done all the -- we've done most of the commercial negotiations in terms of pricing and revenue generation out of this. I mean when you add up those 45 million to 55 million pounds, you get really close to an Ironton breakeven number. And that's exciting for us because that's what we've been driving for, and we're starting to see contractual clarity to get us to that point.

And again, Hassan, remember, the 50 million pounds of New Jersey demand that came off the table in Q4 was another batch of programs that would have added to this, okay? So we talked quite a bit in the last quarter about our exit ramp in Q4, and we feel very comfortable and confident in that until the September surprise with New Jersey.

Hassan Ahmed

Understood. Very helpful. And as a follow-up, maybe a quick one for Donald. Donald, you've been obviously on the CFO seat now for a couple of quarters. Just want to get a better sense, as you've sort of worked in that role with the team over there, can you talk a bit about some of the work that you've done on cost structure improvement, where you've sort of spotted some savings and how we should think about, call it, the business' cash needs coming down from here?

Donald Carpenter

Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, we have an outstanding team in operations. They have met monumental challenges to get a first-of-its-kind plant going. We were in situations where we had to sometimes throw money at challenges to get through them. But now that they've learned the plant and understand the plant, they put that problem-solving skill set into cost optimization.

So we have gone through the budget line by line, and we have looked at, "Hey, where are we using outside services? Where are we using temporary labor? Where can we take work in-house? Can we do some of our maintenance projects with the internal team?" And the team has responded. They've made commitments to shed a lot of these third-party costs and pull that cost in-house. Additionally, we've looked at small projects where we can bring nitrogen supply in-house and things like that. We'll continue to look at these small optimizations that we can make that will help us manage our variable costs.

On the corporate side, I mentioned it in my remarks, we have people that are assuming additional responsibilities. We are looking at process automation. We are doing things that oftentimes you see a mature company do in their transformation phase. And we have a very talented employee base that has leaned in really hard. Furthermore, when Dustin talks about Ironton breakeven and improving the economics, we can do that from the cost side as well. So Dustin, every improvement he makes on the pipeline, we can contribute to that breakeven calculation dollar for dollar on the cost side as well.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell of Seaport Research Partners.

Jeffrey Campbell

My first one is, Dustin, it sounded like the 50 million in New Jersey demand is not a complete loss. Some of this is going to recover in 2027, if I understood your remarks correctly. So my question is, should some of these volumes come through, are they in addition to the 45 million and 55 million pounds of demand that you just articulated with Hassan.

Dustin Olson

Yes. So that's a great question, Jeff. About 10 million of the 45 million to 55 million is New Jersey demand, okay, that stayed with us and is still continuing to ramp. And that's a brand decision, okay? So part of it is still there. The other -- let's call it, the other 40 million of New Jersey that's been delayed or on hold. Yes, another probably 5 million to 10 million is in our 2027 forecast, okay? And the other 30 million is on, let's just say, pause or delay until the brands give us further instruction.

What I'd say is that as we got into this discussion with different brand owners, ask them why and when could it change? It took -- I mean, look, this change in New Jersey took everybody by surprise, including brands. And so it took everybody a bit of time to wrap around what their strategy was going to be. Many of these brands have made public-facing comments about what they intend to do on sustainability. And that was, in some cases, predicated on what was going to happen in New Jersey.

And so while some of them may delay until 2030, a lot of them upon reflection and looking at their personal commitments are like, "No, we're going to keep moving forward with this." And so there have even been a couple of customers that initially gave us some, I think we're going to delay type comments, that have come back to a sense and say, "No, we're going to move forward." The difference is the pace, okay?

When New Jersey gave us the recycled content, let's say, badge in April, May, I mean, the flood of calls that came to us was extreme. Everybody needed us to get in and qualify right now in order to be ready for the fourth quarter. So what changed is, in many cases, not necessarily the appetite to convert, but the speed with which they have to. So instead of rushing to get it done in Q4, they're going to do it in Q1 or Q2 or in some cases, they're going to wait until 2030, okay? But I see more and more brands looking at the overall cost of this program and the impact to their brand and still stepping up to say, no, we want to go forward. We want to do this. Good question, Jeffrey.

Jeffrey Campbell

And sort of related to that, and I think you may have alluded to it to some extent, the response to the New Jersey extension demonstrates that some customers are only recycling when regulators require them to, but others are continuing to prepare to recycle regardless. I'm just wondering, is PCT making any effort to prioritize relationships with the latter sort of customers versus the former?

Dustin Olson

No, for sure. Yes. I mean, first of all, the way you described it is 100% accurate. Some brands will move forward irrespective of regulation and some brands will not, okay? There are some brands in the market that will only move forward when they're forced to. And there are some brands that will move forward because they know it's the right thing to do, it's good for their brand, it's good for their marketing, it's good for their public image.

And so for us, I mean, there's a very natural tie for customers that are like-minded to stick together. And so brands that have a high sustainability framework within their culture are brands that we naturally attract to. And so we're a good supplier for them. We're good partners together. We think the same way, and we're definitely leaning into that.

I would tell you that L'Oreal and Procter are 2 great examples of that. I mean, L'Oreal is kind of famous for the statements that they've made publicly about their sustainability goals. And I can tell you, working with them, they are really committed to it. And the same goes for Procter & Gamble. And so you've got companies like that, that continue to move forward, and we're natural partners with, and we're going to lean in and support them because they're first in, and we're going to be partners for a long time because of that.

Jeffrey Campbell

If I could sneak one last one in. I just wondered, the third quarter '26 operational issues, did they expose any previously unknown problems? And if not, how is predictability of production being improved? Because as you suggested, it's hard to imagine major brands increasing their exposure to PureFive until they're confident that production is going to be reliable?

Dustin Olson

Yes, I think that we'll pass that. I think that the issues that we resolved in Q3 had been some nagging headaches that we've dealt with peripherally that hit us pretty hard in Q3. What's exciting to me about it is that we put together a couple of really strong tiger teams and they went after it, and they solved the problem in a very fundamental way. And our performance since that solution has been quite good.

I think also from an analytical perspective -- like brands, they demand consistency, they demand quality, they demand -- they just want to know that what they're getting on a day-to-day basis is going to be the same. And so one of the areas that we've added considerable progress is in our analytical capabilities through Durham and also in Ironton. I mean we track our pellet as well as anybody in the industry, okay? We have got loads of data that show our ability to deliver odor, color, haze, capacity, performance, processability. We've got lots of statistical charts that say that we can do this reliably.

And when you're talking to the big brands, that are very, very brand conscious, you've got to show that data. And I think that this has been a, let's say, an unheralded success because we're able to show that in a very big way. Thanks for the question.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Luke Persons of Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

Luke Persons

This is Luke, on for Eric. So first, you talked about a 40% to 50% utilization range for your latest stage programs once fully ramped. How concentrated is that? And how do you plan to balance customer diversification at Ironton with prioritizing some of your top volume opportunities?

Dustin Olson

Yes. Yes. So I mean the -- we have a very -- I'm trying to frame your question. So your question is how concentrated are the customers that we're delivering on the 40 million to 50 million? And how will we manage that at the Ironton operation?

Luke Persons

Yes. Just basically, what sort of the customer concentration look like for that utilization rate you kind of talked about?

Dustin Olson

Yes. So the customer concentration -- okay, I see, how many customers do we have? The 40 million to 50 million effectively adds up from 6 to 8 customers. So it's on the order of, let's say, less than 10 million per customer, okay? And some of them are a little smaller, some of them are a little bigger, but that's the way to think about that.

Luke Persons

Okay. That's helpful. And I guess just for like a second one here. Do you expect to invest any more than the $85 million spent so far for Thailand besides the project financing that you expect to close? And if so, when should we expect that to be incurred?

Donald Carpenter

Yes. I'll take this one, Dustin. As I mentioned in my remarks, I think we have gotten the projects to internal milestones where we will pause spending and await financing. So for Thailand, we're going to look to -- once we have the line of sight on financial close, that will be the milestone in which we decide to spend additional capital there. The remaining capital to be spent is just committed expenses on the existing projects, a bit of project team and some remaining engineering work to take us through the end of this quarter.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James Schumm of TD Cowen.

James Schumm

So Dustin, a lot of moving parts here. Can you just offer some help on how you see revenue progressing maybe in the fourth quarter and the first quarter?

Dustin Olson

Yes. Look, I mean, we're still in the process of really nailing down the month-by-month projections of revenue, okay? What I can say is that the branded sales are ramping in the fourth quarter. Some of them will be at full ramp in the first quarter, but others will be ramping from first quarter, second quarter, okay?

So we're not going to give revenue guidance right now in terms of month-by-month projections, quite frankly, because we don't have them yet. We're still working with the customer to nail down the supply forecast and when these things will ramp up. But what we're confident in is that the 45 million to 55 million pounds is qualified good product that's in contract negotiation right now or is actively shipping.

James Schumm

Okay. And then like -- I know maybe it's tough and the visibility isn't great. But like when would you -- what is your best guess on when Ironton would break even? And then if you had a guess on when the company EBITDA breakeven could happen, when would that be?

Dustin Olson

Yes. I mean it's just really hard, Jim. I would tell you that we are still kind of working through the New Jersey challenges and building the pipeline so we can get to first Ironton breakeven with the 45 to 55 and then get to the corporate breakeven beyond that. It's very difficult for us to say when that will happen, okay? So I just don't think that we're going to be able to give a firm comment on that question.

James Schumm

Okay. Understood. Is there -- just lastly, what happens if you can't get local Thai financing? What would be the next steps there?

Dustin Olson

Well, look, I mean, we've got a very well-developed project in Thailand. And Thailand is in a position where they benefit strategically on numerous levels by having a project like this. It's oil independence. It's removing waste from their landscape, which is a highly tourist-driven type operation that builds infrastructure for different plastic handling on the front-end side, like -- Thailand is very, very ready for a project like this, and they're leaning into it.

And if you go and you look at many of the bank's public declarations for where they intend to put capital in the future in Thailand, I think you'll find sustainability near the top of the list because it's such an existential threat for the country. I mean with respect to the relationship that we have, with the term sheet that we have, we have a binding term sheet. We're working through the details with a bank. And because of that, we feel confident in our ability to close that deal. We wouldn't have gotten to this place if there wasn't interest on both sides. And so we believe this is moving like we expect it to move, and we're going to continue to take it to close.

Donald, do you have anything else to say on that?

Donald Carpenter

I think you covered most of it, Dustin. What I'd say -- what I'd reiterate based on what you said is we did get a binding term sheet, right? And those are not issued unless the project is viable. They dug into a tremendous amount of the due diligence. And so we're just in the process of working through those final terms and conditions. These things take time, and we're not going to rush through it until we get to terms that are acceptable for both parties.

Dustin Olson

Yes. And I guess the practical answer is that we're going to pause spending until we get the financing done. So you shouldn't expect to see a lot of spending on Thailand until the project financing closes.

Operator

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Dustin Olson, CEO, for closing remarks.

Dustin Olson

Look, I know a lot has happened in this quarter and the company. Quite frankly, we responded. We fixed the problems. We redirected our selling effort. We won orders and we brought costs down. It's taken longer than any of us wanted, but look at where we are. We're commercializing phase with branded customers. Railcars are moving. Our product is on the shelves and some of the biggest brands in the world are putting their names next to ours. We're working towards the breakeven metrics that prove Ironton's economics from 2 directions, both the revenue side as well as the cost side.

Beyond the near term, this is a very large and growing polypropylene market with recycled content regulation taking effect over the next decade, and no one else can do what we do. We are a one-of-one solution. Thank you for your support.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.