노바(NVMI) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 사상 최대 매출 및 4분기 가이던스

핵심 요약

• 노바 리미티드(NASDAQ: NVMI)가 2026년 3분기 매출 2억 8,780만 달러를 기록해 자체 가이던스 상단을 웃돌았다고 발표했다. 이는 전 분기 대비 13%, 전년 동기 대비 28% 증가한 수치로 역대 최대치다.
• 비GAAP 기준 영업이익률은 35.5%를 기록해 회사의 목표 모델인 28%~33%를 상회했다. 비GAAP 희석 주당순이익(EPS)은 2.86달러였다.
• 주로 DRAM 생산능력 확장, 재료 계측 샘플링 비율 상승, 적용 분야 확대에 힘입어 메모리 부문 매출과 수주액이 사상 최고치를 기록했다.
• 첨단 패키징 부문은 스탠드얼론 치수 계측에서 사상 최고 실적을 달성했다. 10개 이상의 고객사가 노바 WMC 플랫폼을 주문했거나 인수를 완료했으며, 추가 평가도 진행 중이다.
• 경영진은 4분기 매출을 3억 500만~3억 1,500만 달러, 비GAAP 희석 EPS를 3.03~3.18달러로 전망했다. 회사는 2026년 연간 매출 10억 달러 돌파 목표를 순조롭게 달성할 궤도에 머물러 있다.
• 경영진은 2026년 하반기 매출이 2025년 하반기 대비 33% 이상 성장할 것으로 예상하며, 게이트올어라운드(GAA), 첨단 DRAM, HBM 관련 지출 등 2027년으로 접어들며 투자 구성이 더욱 유리해질 것으로 내다봤다.

핵심 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

메모리 부문이 주요 성장 동력이었다. 특히 견조한 DRAM 수요에 힘입어 매출과 수주액이 사상 최고치를 기록했다. 첨단 DRAM 생산능력 확대로 통합 계측 장비가 수혜를 입었으며, 고객사들이 샘플링 비율을 높이고 응용처를 확대함에 따라 XPS 수요가 증가했다. 경영진은 주요 고객사 기준 팹당 장비 수가 최대 9대에 달했다고 밝혔다.

첨단 패키징 부문 역시 스탠드얼론 치수 계측에서 사상 최고치를 달성했다. 노바는 반도체 후공정 외주(OSAT) 고객사향 매출 증가와 로직 및 고대역폭 메모리(HBM) 응용 분야 전반에서 노바 WMC 도입이 지속되고 있다고 전했다. 재료 및 화학 계측 또한 HBM 관련 공정으로 적용 범위를 넓혀가고 있다.

첨단 로직 수요는 견조한 흐름을 유지했다. 경영진은 게이트올어라운드(GAA) 생산에는 핀펫(FinFET) 대비 약 30% 더 높은 계측 집약도가 요구되며, 고객사 전반에서 GAA 공정 내 노바의 점유율이 더 높다고 설명했다. 회사는 2024년부터 2026년까지 GAA 누적 매출 5억 달러를 달성한다는 목표를 순조롭게 이어가고 있다.

전공정 화학 계측에서는 안코씬(AncoScene)이 검수를 마치고 주요 파운드리 업체의 대량 양산용으로 출하 승인되었다. 노바는 해당 플랫폼이 여러 지역에 걸쳐 추가 고객사 침투 단계를 순조롭게 밟아가고 있다고 밝혔다.

장비 설치 기반이 확대됨에 따라 서비스 매출도 다시 한번 사상 최고치를 경신했다. 첨단 공정 노드 제조를 지원하는 업그레이드 수요에 힘입어 부가가치 서비스 매출은 전년 동기 대비 약 50% 증가했다.

노바는 수요에 대응하기 위해 생산능력을 확대하고 있다. 아시아 지역의 신규 클린룸이 연말까지 가동될 예정이며, 이를 통해 생산능력을 늘리고 고객사 및 현지 공급업체와 더 가까운 곳에 생산 거점을 마련하게 된다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 2026년 4분기에 대해 다음과 같은 전망을 제시했다.

이러한 전망치의 중간값을 기준으로 노바는 또 한 해 사상 최대 연간 매출을 기록할 것으로 기대하고 있다. 경영진은 2026년 연간 매출이 10억 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예상되며, 이는 5개년 전략 계획보다 1년 앞당겨 달성하는 것이라고 밝혔다. 회사는 이미 지난 3분기에 최근 12개월(TTM) 누적 매출 10억 달러를 넘어선 바 있다.

2027년과 관련해 경영진은 게이트올어라운드(GAA) 투자 모멘텀, 두 자릿수 DRAM 설비투자 성장세 지속, 1c 및 1d를 포함한 첨단 DRAM 전환, HBM 생산능력 확대, 고객사 도입 확대를 예상했다. 경영진은 연중 분기별 성장세가 이어질 것으로 기대하면서도 공식적인 2027년 재무 가이던스는 제시하지 않았다.

리스크 및 주요 주목 요인

• 반도체 산업의 급격한 확장이 공급망에 부담을 주고 있다. 이에 따라 노바는 장기 공급 역량을 확보하기 위해 기존 공급업체들과 협력하는 동시에 공급망을 다변화하고 내부 제조 인프라에 투자하고 있다.
• 경영진은 웨이퍼 팹 장비(WFE) 지출 대비 노바의 성장률은 공정 노드 및 아키텍처별 투자 구성에 따라 달라질 수 있다고 밝혔다.
• 2027년 하반기에는 XPS 재료 계측 시장에 새로운 경쟁업체가 진입할 가능성이 있다. 노바는 경쟁 우위를 유지하기 위해 더 우수한 성능과 낮은 소유총비용(COO)을 갖춘 제품에 투자하고 있다.
• 5대 주요 고객사 중 4곳이 이미 대량 양산, 추가 도입 프로그램 또는 평가 단계에서 메트리온(Metrion) 플랫폼을 사용하고 있으나 리드타임이 긴 편이다.
• 경영진은 4분기 이후 비용 증가를 예상하고 있으나, 출하량 확대, 운영 효율성 개선, 제품 기능 강화 및 가격 조정을 통해 이를 상쇄할 수 있을 것으로 보고 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 2027년 설비투자 구성이 노바에 점점 더 유리해질 것으로 설명했다. 게이트올어라운드(GAA)의 계측 집약도는 핀펫(FinFET)보다 약 30% 높으며, 첨단 DRAM, HBM 및 신규 시장 진입자들로 인해 적용 분야 침투율과 고객 기반이 확대될 수 있다.

메모리 부문과 관련해 경영진은 생산능력 확장과 노바의 치수·재료·화학 계측 포트폴리오 활용 확대를 강력한 성장의 원인으로 꼽았다. 4F스퀘어(4F-Square) 전환과 관련된 초기 파일럿은 2027년에 시작될 것으로 예상되며, 이는 공정 제어 집약도를 더욱 높일 수 있다.

노바는 2027년 하반기경 잠재적인 XPS 경쟁업체가 등장할 것으로 예상하고 있으나, 전체 재료 계측 포트폴리오 전반에 걸친 것은 아니라고 보고 있다. 회사는 더 뛰어난 성능과 개선된 소유총비용을 갖춘 새로운 XPS 제품을 개발 중이다.

경영진은 5대 주요 목표 고객사 중 4곳이 대량 양산, 추가 도입 또는 평가 과정을 통해 메트리온(Metrion)을 채택했다고 밝혔다. 노바는 2027년에 5번째 고객사를 확보하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.

수익성과 관련해 경영진은 4분기 비GAAP 기준 매출총이익률 전망치를 약 59%로 유지했으며, 현재로서는 특별한 매출총이익률 역풍이 보이지 않는다고 밝혔다. 분기별 마진은 약 1%포인트 안팎으로 변동할 수 있다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Nova Limited Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Miri Segal, CEO of MS-IR. Please go ahead.

Miri Segal-Scharia

Thanks, operator, and good day, everyone. Welcome to Nova's Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. With us on the line today are Gaby Waisman, President and CEO; and Guy Kizner, CFO.

Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that certain information provided on this call may contain forward-looking statements, and the safe harbor statement outlined in today's earnings release also pertains to this call. If you have not received a copy of the release, please view it in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

Gaby will begin the call with a business update, followed by Guy with a financial overview. We will then open the call for the question-and-answer session.

I will now turn the call over to Gaby Waisman, Nova's President and CEO. Gaby, please go ahead.

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Miri, and thank you all for joining us today. I will start the call by summarizing our third quarter performance highlights. Following my commentary, Guy will review the quarterly financial results in detail. We delivered another record quarter, exceeding the top end of our guidance with revenue reaching approximately $288 million and growing 28% year-over-year as well as record profitability. This performance was driven in part by record revenue from memory and advanced packaging segments. The strength of the quarter was reflected in outstanding performance in multiple product lines. We achieved record results across integrated metrology, stand-alone dimensional metrology and chemical metrology solutions, coupled with record service revenue.

These results manifest the continued industry momentum as well as the proliferation of our portfolios across regions, customers, market segments and critical applications. Our healthy pipeline continues to provide solid visibility into customer demand. Furthermore, we now guide the second half of 2026 to grow more than 33% compared to the second half of 2025, demonstrating an accelerating momentum of our business into 2027. The semiconductor industry's investment momentum is substantial. The mounting requirements for computing power, memory and connectivity are driving increased investments in advanced logic, memory and packaging nodes. We see this reflected in robust demand across our customer base as our industry continues to expand capacity and transitions to more advanced manufacturing technologies. These trends reinforce our confidence in demand durability.

For Nova, the opportunity is shaped not only by the overall level of industry investment, but also by the split to specific nodes and architectures. As spending shifts towards more complex designs and applications, including gate-all-around, the need for advanced process control and the intensity of metrology keep climbing. While we grow at a fast pace, our growth relative to WFE may vary from time to time depending on the investment mix. Our objective remains to outperform the market over time while continuing to leverage opportunities created by capacity expansions and unique value offerings.

Memory was an important growth engine this quarter, reaching record levels of both revenue and bookings, primarily driven by strong DRAM demand. This performance was supported equally by our dimensional and materials metrology solutions. Our integrated metrology products benefited from capacity expansions in advanced DRAM manufacturing. In materials metrology, demand for our XPS solution continued to grow as customers increased sampling rates and expanded the platform's use into new applications, increasing tool utilization. This translates into a growing number of tools per fab at leading memory customers, including a significant order from a major customer that further solidified the demand profile in 2027.

Advanced packaging was another significant contributor during the quarter with record performance of our stand-alone dimensional metrology solutions and continued strong momentum across the portfolio. Our sales to OSAT customers picked up significantly, and we see multiple opportunities to expand our presence in this market. We are particularly pleased with the continued adoption of the Nova WMC platform across both logic and HBM applications and across a broad geographic footprint with more than 10 customers having placed orders or completing acceptance of the platform and additional evaluations underway.

Alongside growing application content in dimensional metrology, we see adoption of our materials metrology solutions in HBM-related applications, complemented by strong performance from our chemical metrology portfolio. Together, these developments are expanding Nova's participation across the evolving advanced packaging ecosystem. Advanced logic sustained its robust momentum during the quarter, driven by healthy demand. Looking ahead, as investment mix increasingly shifts towards gate-all-around devices, we expect a step function in the number of tools needed to support process complexity and metrology requirements and in the value provided by our Nova PRISM platform.

The logic segment also represents an opportunity for our front-end chemical metrology. During the quarter, the AncoScene platform successfully completed acceptance and release for high-volume manufacturing by a leading foundry, and it continues to grow in both market share and customer base. These developments broaden our opportunity in advanced logic and reinforce the increasing relevance of our portfolio. Nova's growing installed base continued to drive record service revenue with strong performance in every region. Customers remain focused on maximizing production capacity, which increases the importance of tool availability, productivity and robustness. These dynamics drove approximately 50% year-over-year growth in value-added services revenue, led by strong demand for upgrades supporting advanced node production.

As our installed base expands, we see further opportunities to deliver value throughout the life cycle of our solutions. As our business continues to scale alongside industry demand, we remain focused on ensuring that our operational infrastructure and supply chain can support our growth and meet our customer commitments. We are working closely with our suppliers to align capacity and planning with our needs while continuing to strengthen the resilience and breadth of our supply base. At the same time, we're expanding our own manufacturing capacity, including the new cleanroom in Asia, which is expected to become operational by year-end.

Our outstanding execution this quarter, combined with a robust outlook for the fourth quarter, puts us on track to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue, reaching this important milestone a year ahead of our current 5-year strategic plan. With a strong pipeline, extended customer visibility and an increasingly favorable industry investment mix, we believe Nova is well positioned to carry this momentum into 2027. We look forward to discussing the next chapter of Nova's journey at our Investor Day on March 9, 2027, in New York City, where we will present our future strategy and provide greater insight into the market and technology transitions ahead, the opportunities they create and how we are aligning our portfolio and investments to drive Nova's next phase of growth.

Now for some more details on our financials, let me hand over the call to Guy.

Guy Kizner

Thanks, Gaby. Good day, everyone. I will begin by reviewing our third quarter financial achievements and then provide guidance for the fourth quarter. We delivered another quarter of record results, generating $287.8 million in revenue, our third consecutive quarter of all-time high. Revenue exceeded our guidance and increased 13% quarter-over-quarter and 28% year-over-year. This achievement is a testament to the strength of our core offerings as well as our ability to capture and respond to the continued demand in the market. Product revenue distribution was approximately 61% from logic and foundry and 39% from memory and others. Product revenues included 4 customers and 4 territories, which contributed each 10% or more to product revenues.

In the third quarter, gross margin was 57.7% on a GAAP basis and 59.1% on a non-GAAP basis. These strong margin levels reflect the high value of our product delivered to customers. Combined with record revenue, they enable us to generate another quarter of strong profitability. As expected, operating expense increased to $73.3 million on a GAAP basis and $68 million on a non-GAAP basis as we continue to invest in innovation and future growth opportunities. The increase was driven primarily by higher R&D spending to support our product road map and technology leadership as well as costs related to ongoing strategic evaluations.

Operating margins in the third quarter reached 32% on a GAAP basis and 35.5% on a non-GAAP basis, surpassing the upper range of our target model of 28% to 33%. These results highlight our ability to translate revenue growth into profitable expansion. The effective tax rate in the third quarter was approximately 18%. Earnings per diluted share in the third quarter on a GAAP basis were $2.64 per diluted share, and earnings per share on a non-GAAP basis were $2.86 per diluted share, exceeding the high end of our third quarter guidance.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $1.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, bank deposits, and marketable securities. Our free cash flow for the third quarter reached $132 million, bringing total positive free cash flow for the first 3 quarters of 2026 to approximately $206 million. This performance highlights the strong cash-generating capability of the business and the quality of earnings. In addition, consistent with our balanced capital allocation strategy, we repurchased approximately $38.5 million of shares during the quarter, following the $200 million share repurchase authorization announced in September.

Next, I'd like to outline our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026. We currently expect revenues for the quarter to be between $305 million and $315 million. GAAP earnings per diluted share to range from $2.78 to $2.94 (sic) [ $2.93 ]. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share to range from $3.03 to $3.18. At the midpoint of our fourth quarter 2026 estimates, we anticipate the following: Gross margins of approximately 57% on a GAAP basis and approximately 59% on a non-GAAP basis. Operating expense on a GAAP basis to increase to approximately $78 million. Operating expense on a non-GAAP basis to increase to approximately $72 million. Financial income on a non-GAAP basis is expected to increase to approximately $18.7 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting the higher cash balance on hand. Effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 17%.

Before I conclude my remarks, I would like to highlight that based on the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, we expect to finish 2026 with another year of record revenues. Moreover, in the third quarter, we surpassed our long-term milestone of $1 billion in revenue on the last 12-month basis and delivered profitability at the high end of our target range, both achieved a full year ahead of our original plan. Reaching these milestones ahead of schedule is a testament to the strength of our business model, the disciplined execution of our strategy and the significant value our process control portfolio creates for customers. Most importantly, it reflects our ability to consistently generate attractive returns and long-term value for our shareholders.

With that, we will be pleased to take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

질의응답

Atif Malik

Gaby, you talked about objectives to outperform WFE, which is a function of spending mix. So when you look at DRAM versus foundry logic mix next year with higher gate-all-around mix and new logic project, do you think that spending mix closes the gap from this year and helps Nova outperform?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Atif, for the question. So let me perhaps give some color to what makes the 2027 investment mix more favorable for us, for Nova. So I'll start with gate-all-around. First, we see some shift towards incremental investments in gate-all-around where intensity of metrology increases by about 30% compared to FinFET. And our Nova share in gate-all-around across all players is higher as well. So that also supports the increase. In memory, we do expect continued strong double-digit growth in DRAM investments and moving to some more advanced DRAM nodes moving to such as 1c, 1d, whereas we will see some additional intensity, including in materials metrology, where we see increased sampling, new applications and higher tool utilization, which drives an increase in numbers of tools per fab, which reached up to 9. Obviously, process control intensity in memory is lower than logic as a whole, but we do see some positive trend in that vector.

And the advanced packaging and specifically in HBM, we continue to see the capacity expansion, the process complexity driving our business. And we see some -- as I mentioned during the transcript, I do see some adoption in OSATs of some of our tools as a result of those players capitalizing on leading manufacturers' advanced packaging tool selections that were already made. And last but not least, we do see some new customers and entrants into the market. And those participants create additional opportunities for us to broaden our customer base and footprint.

So overall, what I see is that 2027 combines both the WFE growth with an investment mix favorable for Nova and some opportunities for increased application penetration and expansion of our market share. So I do anticipate this momentum to drive into next year. I would also say that we do see some linearity in the business in the quarter-over-quarter growth next year in that respect.

Atif Malik

Very helpful. And Guy, on the topic of supply chain, there are some concerns in the market that shortages of components like gas delivery and optical could limit the ability to ship more. Are you seeing any issues with Nova or your ability to ship more products or the bottlenecks elsewhere?

Gabriel Waisman

We are seeing -- we're definitely seeing this rapid industry ramp, stretching our supply chain, and we're taking steps to ensure that we keep delivering and maintaining our commitment to customers in spite of it. Supply chain resilience remains an area that requires active management attention and mitigation. We're working very closely with both existing suppliers on long-term capacity initiatives while also striving to broaden our supply chain and investing in Nova's own manufacturing infrastructure. I did mention our new cleanroom in Asia, and that supports our operational agility, provides us more capacity as part of our long-term plan. It's closer to customers, by the way, and definitely broadens the local supply chain ecosystem for us.

Operator

The next question comes from Shane Brett with Morgan Stanley.

Shane Brett

My first question is on memory. Even if I assume your memory revenue is flat quarter-over-quarter into December, it would imply your memory revenue is up north of 60%, which is seriously impressive, especially given we've not necessarily had a huge technology inflection in the front end this year. Just what is driving this really impressive memory growth for Nova? And how do you think about just kind of inflections into next year for memory that could drive even more outperformance?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Shane. So we did indicate the fact that this quarter, we had about 39% of our business coming from memory and others. And we do forecast that our memory revenue this year to have a strong double-digit growth. And we do see some similar trends into next year as well. It's coming mostly from capacity expansions. You mentioned some transitions, and there are definitely some transitions that are providing some gradual increase in intensity as a result of architectural changes. And we definitely see some initial pilots next year with the transition to 4F-Square that will further increase the process control intensity for those customers.

So the opportunity in general is diverse and comes from our entire product portfolio. For the dimensional metrology, it's both the capacity expansion and an increasing intensity in HBM. In the materials metrology, we see increased sampling rates, new applications and all of that is driving additional tools per fab. I mentioned reaching the bar of 9 with leading customers. And in chemical metrology, it's definitely the growing adoption of our front-end solutions.

Shane Brett

Got it. That's great to hear. And for my follow-up, I'd love to hear about the competitive environment in material metrology. You pioneered this market have driven adoption with customers. If we do see competition emerge, how do you think this market will change for you?

Gabriel Waisman

So we anticipated the competition in material metrology. I indicated that a few times in the past. And it's a testament to the fact that this is becoming a meaningful process control area for both customers and obviously, for peers and competitors. We see new entrants that will come and compete probably towards the second half of next year. And we are investing considerably in order to maintain a very significant competitive gap to make it very challenging for new entrants. But we do welcome the competition. And again, it indicates the importance of this market and the fact that it will continue to grow and be very attractive in terms of the importance it possesses with our customers.

Operator

And the next question comes from Michael Mani with Bank of America.

Michael Mani

To start, could you give us a sense of where foundry and logic and memory end up for Q4? And the basis for that question is, when I look at your -- where your foundry and logic growth is tracking overall for this year, it seems to be maybe a little bit more muted, especially relative to memory, trailing behind overall foundry logic as we see it. What -- how should we interpret that? Is that more of a digestion sort of period after multiple years of very strong growth in that segment? Is it more of a mix factor or a timing factor? And is it really just gate-all-around coming back next year that could help return that part of your business to growth?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Michael. So I wouldn't say it's muted. We do see meaningful growth for us in logic -- logic and foundry. In both advanced and mature nodes, by the way, and I'll speak to it a bit later. In the advanced logic nodes, the transition to gate-all-around is definitely increasing intensity overall. And I believe that it will also help our growth in that respect, both the intensity as well as our share with the customers. And talking about logic, I would indicate the mature nodes, especially China, whereas in the third quarter, we did see an increase in both revenue and in share of sales. But overall, this year, we expect China's share to be lower than 2025, but still nominally grow.

Michael Mani

Got it. And for my follow-up, I think on Metrion, you've mentioned before [indiscernible] that all 5 major customers by end of next year. I think qualifications are still progressing. So how many of the 5 are fully manufactured today versus still in qualification? What do you see as the time line and the gating factors for the remaining ones to get to that milestone?

Gabriel Waisman

So we currently -- it's a great question. Thank you, Michael. We do see right now 4 out of the 5 already adopting the Metrion either in high-volume manufacturing proliferation or evaluations. I do hope to conclude the fifth next year. And we see strong demand for the Metrion. There are longer lead times for this tool, but we're very encouraged by the market demand.

Operator

And the next question comes from Charles Shi with Needham.

Yu Shi

Maybe first, I want to clarify and maybe help us unpack the Q3 results and Q4 guidance a little bit. I think that roughly 90 days ago, we were under the impression that half-over-half growth for this year is probably in the high-teens range. And obviously, I think it's going to beat and raise quarter-to-quarter. That's what Nova does. But now based on your guidance, it seems like it's going to be half-over-half, 22%. Wonder if relative to the expectation, what has changed and what's driving the upside? That's the first question.

Gabriel Waisman

So thank you, Charles. I believe that it's more or less in line with our initial expectations. So I don't think that we deviate from the previous forecast and expectation of having a stronger second half to the first one. It might be a bit higher in terms of the strength, but it's still in line with the expectation. But we are doing -- we are encouraged, as I mentioned before, by the momentum, and we expect it to continue next year as well.

Yu Shi

Maybe a follow-up question on material, the competition new entrants you mentioned about and we know you have X-ray, you have Raman, you have SIMS, and these are all material technologies. But where exactly -- which technology you are seeing new entrants, especially if it's X-ray, can you be a little bit more specific because there are all kinds of X-ray technology, XRF/XPS is where you play, but there is X-ray CT, there's X-ray SDD. So kind of unpack a little bit for us what the new entrants you are seeing and that -- how you intend to maintain your competitive lead?

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, Charles. So definitely, thank you for the question. The competition we are seeing or we will see, it's not here yet, and we need to be a bit more cautious about it. We'll probably see something initial. I'm not sure that it will be meaningful, but towards the second half of next year, but it's centered around XPS only. So we don't see this across the board in our material metrology portfolio, but XPS only. Nova does have a very extensive XPS plus XRF portfolio. We are not selling, by the way, XRF as a stand-alone tool. It's a part or an addition to the XPS capabilities, augmenting the overall application space and value of the tool.

The investment, as always, is on the 2-pronged approach on both technology and cost of ownership. So we are investing significantly, and we're releasing new products, new XPS products that are providing higher performance and better cost of ownership. And we've doubled down on investments in order to make sure that future generations of tools will have a very significant gap in offering value to customers.

Operator

And the next question comes from Tom O'Malley with Barclays.

Robert Smith

This is Trip Smith on for Tom O'Malley. I was just curious if you could expand on the qualification and completed acceptance of the AncoScene product. I was just curious if there was like a timing on that after the high-volume manufacturing by the leading foundry. And then any kind of color on the competitive space in the front-end chemicals metrology area versus like the larger incumbent and how you're gaining share there?

Gabriel Waisman

Definitely. So first of all, I'll start with saying that front-end chemical metrology extends our chemical metrology presence beyond our historical strength in back-end application. And the first quarter was a record quarter for chemical metrology in general, where specifically the AncoScene completed acceptance and was released into HBM as a leading foundry. And we're currently at additional customer penetration stages, and we gained market share, which is occurring across several geographies. We have one competitor in the chemical metrology front-end space, which is KLA, and we are offering very unique value to our customers in that -- with that tool.

Robert Smith

And then maybe just as a follow-up. I think we've heard a little bit about this in the industry, but based on your guide, it kind of implies a flattish to down gross margin. I was just curious if that's coming from continued memory headwinds or broader supply constraints and how you guys are managing those.

Guy Kizner

Yes. So we -- our gross margin this quarter was 59%, and we guided next quarter also 59%. So we don't see a reduction. Obviously, the gross margin for the next quarter can fluctuate plus/minus 1%, but we don't see currently any headwinds on the gross margin side.

Operator

And the next question comes from Vedvati Shrotre with Evercore ISI.

Vedvati Shrotre

So you've previously outlined $500 million revenue opportunity with -- cumulative revenue opportunity through '26, right? Where do we stand against that today? And with TSMC expecting N2 or their -- N2 capacity almost doubling in 2027, like how should we think about your annual gate-all-around revenues next year? Could they scale similarly? Like could you see them double?

Gabriel Waisman

So thank you, Vedvati, for the question. We are on track with the accumulated revenue from '24 to '26 of a total of $500 million. And we are very encouraged by the shift towards increasing investments in gate-all-around. I definitely believe that this is providing a tailwind for the company. I think it's a bit early to assess or provide some color on the number, but we do see growth year-over-year in our gate-all-around process control revenue.

Vedvati Shrotre

Understand. And for my follow-up question on gross margins, I understand you'll be flat in December quarter. But as we go through the year, could you talk about the headwinds you're seeing or the tailwinds you're seeing? Like one aspect is you're also expanding your manufacturing facilities in Asia. So what would be the impact of that to the gross margins?

Guy Kizner

Yes. So when we are looking beyond fourth quarter, we do see cost increase, but the cost increase is being offset by better operational efficiency and higher volumes. We also typically adjust pricing when we introduce new capabilities that add value for our customers, whether through unique metrology capabilities or productivity improvements. And as we mentioned on the last earnings call, we do have several initiatives already in the pipeline that we expect to announce in the future, which should further support this trend.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Gaby Waisman, Nova's President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

Gabriel Waisman

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining our call today.

Operator

The conference has concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.