CNA 파이낸셜(CNA) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표: LTC 관련 비용이 핵심 이익에 부담

핵심 요약

• 핵심 이익은 2억 300만 달러로 전년 동기의 4억 900만 달러에서 감소했으며, 여기에는 연례 장기 요양(LTC) 준비금 가정 검토에 따른 세후 1억 3,700만 달러의 불리한 영향이 포함되었습니다.
• 손해보험(P&C) 부문은 3억 9,700만 달러의 핵심 이익을 창출했습니다. P&C 합산비율은 대형 재해 손실 2.8포인트를 포함해 97.0%를 기록했으며, 기초 합산비율은 91.3%에서 94.2%로 상승했습니다.
• P&C 원수보험료는 3% 증가했습니다. 갱신 보험료 변동률은 3%였으며, 요율 변동률은 전 분기 보합에서 2%로 개선되었습니다.
• 순투자수익은 6억 3,500만 달러로 전년 동기의 6억 3,800만 달러와 비교됩니다. 채권 및 기타 투자 수익은 4% 증가한 5억 8,700만 달러를 기록했습니다.
• 영업활동 현금흐름은 6억 5,400만 달러에 달했습니다. 누적 기타포괄손익(AOCI)을 제외한 주당순자산가치는 배당금을 조정한 후 2025년 말 대비 5% 증가한 46.11달러였습니다.
• 경영진은 4분기 채권 및 기타 투자 수익이 약 6억 달러, 연간 전체 수익은 23억 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

상업보험

상업보험 부문의 합산비율은 92.7%에서 99.7%로 상승했습니다. 대형 재해 손실이 4.8포인트(7,000만 달러)를 차지했으며, 주로 초과 배상책임 준비금 강화에 따른 전기 불리한 준비금 진전이 2.4포인트(3,500만 달러)를 추가했습니다.

기초 합산비율은 전년 동기의 90.0% 대비 92.5%였습니다. 원수보험료와 신규 계약 모두 2% 성장했으며, 유지율은 83%였습니다. 요율 변동률은 2%로 개선되었으며, 사회적 인플레이션의 영향을 가장 많이 받은 종목에서는 높은 한 자릿수 인상률을 보였습니다.

CNA는 가격 책정과 조건이 불충분한 부문의 익스포저를 축소했습니다. 대형 기업 고객 재산보험의 총원수보험료는 신규 계약 32% 감소를 포함해 12% 하락했습니다.

전문보험

전문보험 부문의 합산비율은 96.8%였으며, 기초 합산비율은 93.3%에서 96.7%로 상승했습니다. 원수보험료는 4% 증가했고, 신규 계약은 5% 증가한 1억 3,700만 달러를 기록했습니다.

갱신 보험료 변동률은 5%, 요율 변동률은 4%였습니다. 헬스케어 요율은 8%로 강세를 유지했으며, 금융 및 경영진 배상책임보험 요율 변동률은 2%로 개선되었습니다.

해외 사업

해외 사업 부문의 합산비율은 10.1포인트(3,500만 달러)의 유리한 전기 준비금 진전에 힘입어 91.8%에서 86.1%로 개선되었습니다. 기초 합산비율은 91.2%에서 94.1%로 상승했습니다.

원수보험료는 4% 증가했으며, 환율 변동을 제외하면 6% 증가했습니다. 유지율은 87%였으나, 치열한 시장 경쟁 속에서 요율은 4% 하락하고 갱신 가격 변동률은 2% 감소했습니다.

장기 요양

생명 및 단체보험은 전년 동기 2,200만 달러의 손실에서 확대된 1억 7,100만 달러의 핵심 손실을 기록했습니다. 연례 LTC 검토 결과, 단기 간병비 인플레이션 가정 상승으로 인한 1억 4,500만 달러 영향과 수정된 이환율 가정으로 인한 7,500만 달러 영향에 주로 힘입어 GAAP 기준 준비금이 1억 7,300만 달러 증가했습니다. 보험료율 가정 조정에 따른 5,000만 달러의 이익이 이러한 변화를 일부 상쇄했습니다.

경영진은 포트폴리오 조정에 따른 미래 예상 투자수익 증가가 경제적 관점에서 불리한 준비금 가정 변경을 거의 완전히 상쇄하지만, GAAP 기준에 따라 이러한 혜택은 시간에 걸쳐 인식될 것이라고 밝혔습니다. CNA는 또한 LTC 포트폴리오에 대한 13억 달러의 법정 준비금 마진을 재확인했습니다.

투자 및 자본

채권 및 기타 투자 수익은 전년 동기 대비 4% 증가한 5억 8,700만 달러를 기록했습니다. 통합 채권 포트폴리오의 실효 수익률은 전년 동기 4.8%에서 5.0%로 상승했습니다.

CNA는 9월 30일까지 13억 달러 이상의 듀레이션 확대 거래를 실행하여, 거의 무시할 수 있는 수준의 실현 손실만 내고 수익률 5.5%의 단기 듀레이션 BBB+ 등급 채권을 수익률 6.2%의 장기 듀레이션 A 등급 채권으로 교환했습니다.

AOCI를 제외한 주주지분은 125억 달러였습니다. 법정 자본 및 잉여금은 총 112억 달러였으며, AOCI를 제외한 자본 대비 부채 비율은 19.2%였습니다.

경영진 가이던스

• 경영진은 현재의 금리 환경을 바탕으로 4분기 채권 및 기타 투자 수익이 약 6억 달러에 달할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 2026년 연간 채권 및 기타 투자 수익은 23억 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예상됩니다.
• CNA는 약 30%의 P&C 사업비율을 2026년의 합리적인 런레이트(run rate)로 계속 평가하고 있습니다.
• 경영진은 위험 조정 수익률이 적절한 곳에서 성장을 도모하고 가격 책정이나 조건이 불충분한 사업은 축소하면서, 2026년 4분기 및 2027년까지 엄격한 언더라이팅 기조를 유지할 방침입니다.

리스크 및 주요 관심 영역

• 사회적 인플레이션이 초과 배상책임 청구 결과에 계속 영향을 미치고 진전 패턴을 연장시켜, 최근 팬데믹 이후 사고 연도에 대한 준비금 강화의 원인이 되고 있습니다.
• 대형 기업 고객 재산보험, 산재보험 및 일부 해외 종목에서 요율 압박이 여전히 두드러집니다.
• 대형 재해 손실은 총 7,800만 달러였으며, 주로 심각한 폭풍우 활동으로 인해 발생했습니다.
• 금리 상승으로 AOCI 내 채권 미실현 손실이 증가했지만, 경영진은 이러한 손실이 투자적격 등급 증권에 집중되어 있으며 신용 악화를 나타내지 않는다고 밝혔습니다.
• LTC 실적은 간병비 인플레이션, 이환율, 계약 유지율 및 승인된 보험료율 인상 조치의 달성 여부에 여전히 민감하게 반응하고 있습니다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Douglas Worman

[ The transcript was presubmitted by CNA Financial Corporation. No live call was conducted for the Q3 2026 earnings call. ]

In the third quarter, we achieved disciplined growth and high-quality underwriting results underpinned by prudent loss ratio selections and strong execution of our underwriting strategies to optimize our portfolios in the current marketplace. We maintained the higher underlying loss ratio we established in the first half of 2026, and our expense ratio was below 30% even as we continue to substantially invest in talent, technology and artificial intelligence (AI) to augment the efficiency and effectiveness of our operation.

Core income was $203 million in the third quarter. Core income includes an unfavorable after-tax impact of $137 million from our annual Life & Group long-term care (LTC) reserve assumption review. However, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions, the anticipated benefit of which is not reflected in current period earnings under GAAP accounting. We had another quarter of strong investment income at $635 million, robust cash flow from operations of $654 million and 5% year-to-date growth in book value per share excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) and the impact of dividends. LTC and investments will be detailed in Scott's remarks.

The P&C all-in combined ratio was 97.0% in the quarter, including 2.8 points, or $78 million, of catastrophe impacts. Catastrophes were primarily driven by severe storm activity. Prior period development had no impact on the combined ratio in aggregate as additional reserve strengthening in excess casualty in recent accident years was balanced by favorable reserve changes in other classes of business. The P&C underlying combined ratio was 94.2% compared to 91.3% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 29.7%, consistent with the first half of the year. The P&C underlying loss ratio was 64.1%, consistent with the prudent assumptions set earlier in the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter. Long run

loss cost trend assumptions were unchanged in the quarter.

Net written premium growth was 3% and new business was up 1%. P&C renewal premium change was 3% and rate change improved to 2%, compared to last quarter when rate change was flat. Rate remained under pressure in national accounts property, workers' compensation and many areas of our International segment, but the rate decline was modestly mitigated compared to last quarter. Notably, as we indicated last quarter, when we cannot achieve appropriate pricing along with terms and conditions we will walk away and lean into areas where we believe we can achieve a more appropriate return. As an example, national accounts property gross written premium was down 12% in the quarter, with new business down 32%.

Turning to each of the three P&C operating segments, in Commercial, the all-in combined ratio was 99.7% compared to 92.7% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe impacts were $70 million, or 4.8 points of the combined ratio, compared with just 2.7 points in a very benign quarter last year. Prior period development added 2.4 points to the combined ratio, or $35 million. This was primarily from reserve strengthening in excess casualty, partially offset by favorability in workers' compensation and property.

The reserve strengthening in excess casualty is primarily from recent post-pandemic accident years. The excess casualty risk adjusted return continues to be accretive to the overall portfolio; however, we have continued to see the impacts of social inflation influence the trajectory of claim outcomes and lengthen development patterns. We have quickly reacted to elevated activity compared to prior expectations in our reserve assumptions across our different excess casualty portfolios.

The underlying combined ratio was 92.5% compared to 90.0% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 65.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.4 points compared to the prior year quarter, as we maintain the philosophy addressed in our remarks for the first quarter. The expense ratio improved to 26.2% in the quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter below 27%.

In Commercial, net written premium grew 2% and new business also grew 2% to $332 million. Retention in the quarter was 83% with significant variation by business unit and class, similar to last quarter. While we continue to see opportunities in the portfolio, there are areas across many portions of the portfolio where we chose to walk away given current market conditions where pricing, terms and conditions are not appropriate. Commercial segment rate change increased to 2% in the quarter. Rate was high single-digit in classes most impacted by social inflation.

For Specialty, the all-in combined ratio was 96.8% and the underlying combined ratio was 96.7% compared to 93.3% in the prior year quarter. There was no prior period development in the aggregate. The underlying loss ratio was 62.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter for the reasons we discussed previously. The expense ratio of 33.6% was in line with the first half of the year.

In Specialty, net written premium grew 4% in the quarter and new business was up 5% to $137 million. Retention overall was 83%. Renewal premium change was 5% and rate change was 4% in the quarter. Rate remained strong at 8% in our healthcare business. In our affinity business, rate was up to 4% and retention was 80%, as we executed underwriting actions on portions of our professional errors and omissions programs. Financial and management liability lines rate change improved to 2%.For International, the all-in combined ratio was 86.1% compared to 91.8% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe losses were 2.1 points compared to 0.6 points in the prior quarter. Prior period development was favorable by 10.1 points in the quarter, or $35 million, compared to no prior period development in the aggregate in the prior year quarter. Favorable development was concentrated in the property, professional liability and management liability classes of business. The underlying combined ratio was 94.1%, up from 91.2% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 59.8%, consistent with the first half of 2026 and up from 58.5% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 34.3%.

International net written premium increased 4% in the quarter, or 6% excluding currency fluctuations. New business declined by $8 million to $86 million in the quarter. Retention remained strong at 87% as we hold onto profitable business in this segment. Rates were down 4% in the quarter, and renewal price change was down 2%. The environment in which our international unit operates continues to be highly competitive. Despite the competitive environment and some of the volatility it can cause, it remains an important contributor to our overall operation, and we continue to see tremendous potential there going forward.

Scott Lindquist

CNA's third quarter core income was $203 million compared with $409 million in the prior year quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month core return on equity of 8.6%. The decrease in core income reflects a $137 million unfavorable after-tax impact from our annual LTC reserve assumption updates. However, as detailed later in the Life & Group remarks, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions. Under GAAP accounting, the anticipated benefits of these portfolio actions are not immediately reflected in earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.

Excluding the LTC assumption review impact, the quarter continued to reflect stable underlying underwriting performance and strong investment results.

Our P&C expense ratio was 29.7% for the third quarter and 29.9% year to date in 2026. Despite continued investments in talent, technology and AI capabilities, our expense ratio has remained below 30% in five of the last six quarters. We continue to believe an expense ratio around 30% represents a reasonable run-rate for 2026.

The P&C net prior period development impact on the combined ratio was flat in the current quarter. Favorable development in workers' compensation, property, surety and International was offset by unfavorable development in excess casualty, and professional and management liability. The P&C paid-to-incurred ratio was 74% for the quarter and 76% year to date in 2026. Paid losses can vary from quarter-to-quarter based on claim settlement activity and other factors.

Our Corporate segment produced a core loss of $23 million compared with a core loss of $25 million in the prior year quarter, which includes interest expense on our corporate debt and certain other expenses.

Consistent with our historical practice, we intend to review our asbestos and environment pollution reserves during the fourth quarter.

Turning back to the Life & Group segment, we recorded a core loss of $171 million for the quarter compared with a core loss of $22 million in the prior year quarter. The current quarter results include a $137 million after-tax charge from our annual reserve assumption review. As in prior years, we performed a comprehensive review of all the assumptions underlying our LTC reserves, which include cost of care inflation, morbidity, persistency and premium rate actions, using a valuation date of June 30, 2026. As detailed on slide 15 of the earnings presentation, the assumption updates resulted in a $173 million increase in GAAP reserves.

Notably for this year's assumption updates, we strengthened our near-term cost of care inflation assumptions, increasing the GAAP reserve by $145 million, and we revised morbidity assumptions to reflect actual experience on richer benefit policies, increasing the GAAP reserve by $75 million. Partially offsetting was a $50 million favorable impact from our premium rate assumptions, reflecting actual rate achievement above expectations from approvals across a number of states.

As part of the annual reserve assumption review, we also evaluate the supporting investment portfolio and related future cash flows which consider any changes in portfolio characteristics as well as updated near term interest rate expectations. As of the June 30, 2026 evaluation date, we estimate an increase in future investment income almost entirely offsetting the unfavorable reserve assumption changes. This is driven by

the impact of portfolio actions taken in the second quarter of 2026 to incrementally increase fixed income portfolio duration with higher quality, higher yielding securities through a series of duration extension trades. The fixed income duration extension trading program continued into the third quarter with over $1.3 billion of trades executed this year through September 30th, exchanging shorter duration BBB+ rated bonds at 5.5%

yield for longer-duration, A rated bonds yielding 6.2%, with a negligible realized loss on these trades. As I noted earlier, under GAAP accounting, the economic benefits of these recent portfolio actions are not immediately reflected through earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.Importantly, the annual review also reaffirmed our view that the LTC business maintains a substantial statutory reserve margin of $1.3 billion.

In sum, our third quarter LTC reserve assumption updates and accompanying LTC investment portfolio review further solidifies our belief that the block remains appropriately reserved and the overall economics of the block remain stable.

In addition to the investment portfolio actions just noted, we continue to make meaningful progress in actively managing and reducing the risk of our LTC business through policy inforce actions. During 2026, we received thirty rate increase approvals averaging 20% and have effectively doubled average premium rates since original pricing. Our policy buyout program has completed approximately 12,000 buyouts through roughly $400 million of payments since 2020. As a result of these actions as well as through natural run-off, policy counts have declined by 50% since 2015, and we further expect another 40% decrease over the next decade.

Finally, we believe our locked-in GAAP basis LTC reserves have reached a plateau level. The larger Individual LTC block is mature with an average attained age of 83 and is in the latter half of its reserve run-off. The younger Group LTC block, which features less risky policy benefit features and was more appropriately priced, will have reserves plateau at levels less than half that of Individual LTC. From where we are as to the maturity of the LTC block and underlying characteristics, we currently view the financial risk of the block as contained and expect it to continue to decline over the remaining run-off.

Turning to investment results, net investment income was $635 million in the third quarter compared with $638 million in the prior year quarter.

Fixed income and other investments generated $587 million of income, up 4% from the prior year quarter. Our A-rated fixed income portfolio continues to provide consistent contributions to core income, benefiting from a growing asset base and favorable reinvestment rates. The effective income yield of our consolidated fixed income portfolio was 5.0% in the third quarter, up from 4.9% in the second quarter and 4.8% in the prior year quarter. We continue to be able to reinvest at rates above our P&C portfolio effective income yield of 4.6% and our Life & Group portfolio effective income yield of 5.8%.

Looking ahead, based on the current interest rate environment, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be approximately $600 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be over $2.3 billion.

Our limited partnership and common stock portfolios returned a $48 million gain, or 1.5%, in the quarter compared with a $71 million gain, or 2.5%, in the prior year quarter. The lower return was primarily driven by our hedge fund portfolio, which produced a loss in the current quarter following particularly strong results in the second quarter of 2026. Our private equity portfolio reported steady returns this quarter. As a reminder,

private equity funds, which comprise the majority of our limited partnership portfolio, generally report on a quarter lag.

At quarter-end, our balance sheet remained very strong. Stockholders' equity excluding AOCI was $12.5 billion, or $46.11 per share, a 5% increase from year-end 2025 adjusting for dividends. Including AOCI, stockholders' equity was $10.2 billion, or $37.80 per share, which was impacted by a decrease in AOCI reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on unrealized losses in our fixed income portfolio. These unrealized losses are not indicative of credit deterioration and remain concentrated in investment-grade securities. Statutory capital and surplus in the combined Continental Casualty Companies was $11.2 billion, and our debt-to-capital ratio excluding AOCI was 19.2%.

Operating cash flow was $654 million for the quarter and $1,696 million for the first nine months of 2026. Cash flows continue to reflect higher paid losses for the year aligned with portfolio growth, partially offset by strong premium collections.

The effective tax rate on core income was 17.5% for the third quarter, reflecting a favorable provision-toreturn adjustment primarily related to foreign subsidiary taxes. Excluding this item, the effective tax rate was approximately 21.2%, generally consistent with our expectations for the full year.

Finally, we are pleased to announce our regular quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, payable on December 3, 2026 to stockholders of record on November 16, 2026.

Douglas Worman

We continue to be pleased by the operating fundamentals of our P&C businesses while maintaining a prudent posture in reserves. Our P&C operation produced core income of $397 million. Our expense ratio has remained below 30% in each quarter this year, as we continue to improve efficiency while reinvesting those gains in AI, technology and talent across the value chain to strengthen our capabilities and position us for long-term growth. We continue to be optimistic based on the results we are broadly seeing play out from our AI initiatives. These unique solutions have allowed us to continue to be more effective across our specialized operations.

In our run-off Life & Group segment, the results of the annual LTC reserve assumptions review reinforced our view that the block is appropriately reserved and its financial risk is contained.

Looking forward, we remain focused on driving disciplined execution in our portfolio to optimize our book given the varying current market conditions. That discipline will not change in the fourth quarter of the year and as we enter 2027 - we will continue to focus on growing in areas where we can achieve appropriate risk adjusted returns and be willing to walk away when we cannot.