FMC 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콜: 상업적 비용으로 전망 재편

핵심 요약

• FMC 코퍼레이션(NYSE: FMC)은 약 6억 3,900만 달러 규모의 상업 조치(commercial-action) 비용 반영 후 2026년 3분기 매출 1억 6,000만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 해당 조치와 인도 법인을 제외한 실질 매출(underlying sales)은 7억 4,500만 달러였다.
• 조정 EBITDA는 상업 조치로 인한 6억 7,200만 달러의 영향이 포함되어 마이너스 5억 5,900만 달러를 기록했다. 이러한 조치를 제외한 실질 조정 EBITDA는 1억 1,300만 달러였다.
• FMC는 북미 지역의 가격 책정 방식을 예상 순가격(net prices)에 가깝게 변경함에 따라 약 5억 달러의 비현금성 비용을 계상했다. 추가로 약 1억 7,500만 달러는 브라질, 아르헨티나, 미국 및 캐나다의 일부 유통 채널 재고 가격 재산정과 관련이 있다.
• 2026 회계연도 전체 잉여현금흐름 가이던스는 마이너스 3억 5,000만 달러~마이너스 1억 5,000만 달러로 하향 조정되었다. 구조조정 비용 차감 전 기준 예상 범위는 마이너스 1억 7,000만 달러~플러스 3,000만 달러다.
• 경영진은 4분기 조정 EBITDA를 2억 1,000만 달러~2억 3,000만 달러, 조정 EPS를 0.56달러~0.70달러로 예상하고 있다. 중간값 기준 매출은 전년 동기 대비 거의 보합세를 보일 것으로 예상된다.
• 예비 계획에 따르면 상업 조치 및 제조 부문 변화 이행을 전제로 2027년 조정 EBITDA는 6억 5,000만 달러~7억 3,000만 달러, 2028년 조정 EBITDA는 약 7억 6,000만 달러~8억 4,000만 달러로 전망된다.

핵심 재무 데이터

FMC는 또한 미국 및 스위스의 이연법인세자산에 대한 약 8억 900만 달러의 비현금성 조정과 리낙시피르(Rynaxypyr) 사업 관련 2억 8,800만 달러의 비현금성 손상차손을 기록했다. 이러한 항목은 GAAP 기준 실적에는 영향을 미쳤으나 조정 지표에서는 제외되었다.

사업 및 영업 실적

FMC는 9월 마지막 몇 주 동안 유통 채널 고객들이 재충전 주문을 줄이고 이례적으로 낮은 재고 가치로 시즌을 마무리하려 함에 따라 3분기 수요가 급격히 약화되었다고 밝혔다. 높은 자금 조달 비용, 수급 불확실성, 기존 채널 재고의 높은 가격 등이 포트폴리오 전반의 주문을 제한했다.

회사는 청구서상 사전 가격(upfront invoice prices)을 예상 순가격에 더 가깝게 조정함으로써 북미 상업 모델을 변경하고 있다. 기존 구조에서는 더 높은 총가격(gross price)을 적용한 뒤 상당한 리베이트를 제공하여, 리베이트가 확정 및 지급될 때까지 최종 순가격보다 높은 가치로 재고가 기록되었다.

이러한 전환 과정에서 3분기에 약 5억 달러의 비현금성 비용이 발생했다. 경영진은 이번 변경을 통해 가격 책정이 단순화되고 향후 리베이트 변동성이 줄어들며, 유통 채널 고객이 제네릭 대체재에 맞서 FMC 제품의 입지를 구축하는 데 도움이 될 것이라고 밝혔다.

FMC는 이와 별도로 브라질, 아르헨티나, 미국 및 캐나다의 채널 내에 이미 보유된 일부 제품의 가치를 하향 조정하고 있다. 약 1억 7,500만 달러 규모의 이번 조치는 2023년 이후 서로 다른 원가 구조, 경쟁 환경 및 특허 보호 수준 하에서 판매된 특정 제품에 적용된다.

경영진은 향후 3개 분기에 걸쳐 이 조치가 시행될 것으로 예상하고 있다. 목표는 재배농가로의 제품 이동을 촉진하고, 반품 및 재작업을 줄이며, 향후 추가 주문의 장벽을 제거하는 것이다.

경영진 가이던스

4분기 경영진은 중간값 기준 매출이 전년 동기 대비 거의 보합을 이룰 것으로 예상하고 있다. 한 자릿수 높은 비율의 가격 하락분은 물량 증가로 상쇄될 전망이다. 물량 측면에서는 브라질 내 재배농가 직판 확대, 신제품 및 경쟁력 있는 가격 책정이 긍정적으로 작용하는 반면, 특허 만료 단계에 진입하는 제품에 대한 전략적 가격 인하는 여전히 역풍으로 작용할 것으로 보인다.

경영진은 2027년이 재무적 반등의 시작점이 될 것으로 기대하고 있다. 계획된 동인으로는 신규 유효성분, 특히 플루인다피르(fluindapyr)의 성장, 추가적인 아이소스플렉스(Isoflex) 등록, 유통 채널 흐름 개선 및 생산 거점 변경에 따른 부분적 연간 혜택 등이 꼽힌다.

회사는 상업적 전환이 2028년에 대부분 완료될 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 이에 따라 연간 제조 원가 절감 효과가 확대되고 신규 유효성분의 기여도가 높아질 것으로 보고 있다. 공식적인 2027년 가이던스와 2028년 세부 사항은 2월에 공개될 예정이다.

FMC는 인도 사업 매각과 델라웨어 매각후임대차(sale-leaseback) 거래가 계획대로 완료되고 잉여현금흐름이 가이던스 범위 내에서 유지된다는 가정하에, 2026년 말을 순부채 약 31억 달러 및 회전한도대출 잔액이 없는 상태로 마감할 것으로 예상한다.

리스크 및 주요 관전 포인트

FMC는 재배농가의 수익성 악화, 치열한 경쟁 및 지역별 수요 불확실성을 포함한 어려운 시장 상황이 지속될 것으로 예상하고 있다. 특히 최근 지식재산권 보호가 만료된 제품을 중심으로 가격 하락 압력이 여전히 높은 상황이다.

유통 채널 재고 조치의 이행 여부가 핵심 불확실성 요소다. FMC의 2027년 예비 EBITDA 전망 범위 내 최종 위치는 제품이 유통 채널을 거쳐 재배농가로 얼마나 신속하게 이동하는지에 일부 좌우될 것이다.

약 1억 7,500만 달러 규모의 재고 재산정 조치는 향후 4~6개 분기에 걸쳐 크레디트 노트나 가격 크레디트를 통해 미래 현금 수취에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 빠른 대금 회수와 대금 지급 지연 또는 대손상각 리스크 감소로 해당 금액이 일부 상쇄될 수 있다고 설명했다.

유동성 확보는 여전히 최우선 과제다. 9월 30일 기준 약정 기준 EBITDA 대비 담보부부채 비율은 한도 3.5배 대비 1.4배였으며, 이자보상배율은 최소 기준 2.0배 대비 2.3배였다. 경영진은 FMC가 2027년까지 재무 약정을 계속 준수할 것으로 예상하지만, 해당 연도 상반기의 계절적 운전자본 증가액은 대부분 자체 자금으로 조달할 계획이다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

상업 조치의 현금흐름 영향: 경영진은 약 5억 달러 규모의 북미 가격 모델 관련 비용이 2026년 현금흐름에 영향을 미치지 않으며 작물 주기(crop cycle) 전체에 걸쳐 대체로 현금 중립적일 것이라고 밝혔다. 향후 총 현금 수취액 감소분은 리베이트 지급액의 대폭 감소로 상쇄될 예정이다. 약 1억 7,500만 달러의 채널 재가격 산정 조치가 향후 주요 현금성 역풍이 될 것이다.

2027년 현금 창출: FMC는 공식적인 2027년 잉여현금흐름 가이던스를 제시하지 않았다. 회사는 구조조정 비용 지출이 2026년 예상치인 약 1억 8,000만 달러보다는 낮지만 여전히 상당한 수준을 유지하더라도, 구조조정 차감 전 기준 잉여현금흐름 손익분기점 달성이 가능할 수 있다고 언급했다.

원가 구조 및 R&D: 경영진은 추가적인 비용 절감만으로는 실적을 회복할 수 없으며 매출 성장세 회복이 중요하다고 강조했다. FMC는 인플레이션을 흡수하여 판매관리비(SG&A)를 전반적으로 보합 수준으로 유지할 계획이다. 또한 개발 속도를 높이고 비용을 절감하기 위해 파트너십을 더 활용하는 방안을 모색하는 한편, 현재의 R&D 지출 수준을 유지하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.

인도 법인 매각: FMC는 12월 1일 거래 종결 목표에 맞춰 매각 절차가 차질 없이 진행 중이라고 밝혔다. 회사는 총 거래 대금 약 2억 5,000만 달러와 매각 종결 전 인도 사업으로부터 약 1억 3,000만 달러의 2026년 현금 회수를 기대하고 있으며, 이 중 1억 1,500만 달러는 연초 대비 현재까지 회수되었다.

2027년 영업 가정: 경영진은 주력 사업이 한 자릿수 낮은 비율(low-single-digit)의 성장을 기록하고, 성장 플랫폼 분야는 10%대 중반(mid-teens)의 성장률을 보일 것으로 예상하고 있다. 신규 유효성분은 플루인다피르를 중심으로 약 50% 성장할 것으로 기대된다. 경영진은 또한 가격과 물량이 함께 긍정적인 기여를 할 것으로 기대한다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call for FMC Corporation. This event is being recorded, [Operator Instructions]. I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Curt Brooks, Director of Investor Relations for FMC Corporation. Please go ahead.

Curt Brooks

Good morning, and welcome to FMC Corporation's 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Call. Today's prepared remarks will be provided by Pierre Brondeau, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Andrew Sandifer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After prepared comments, we will take on questions, our earnings release and today's slide presentation are available on the FMC Investor Relations website and the prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call.

Let me remind you that today's presentation and discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including, but not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgment based on today's understanding. Actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties.

Today's discussion and the supporting materials will include references to adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, organic revenue growth and revenue excluding India, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please note that as used in today's discussion, earnings means adjusted earnings EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA and sales refers to sales excluding India. A reconciliation and definition of these terms as well as other non-GAAP financial terms, to which you may refer during today's conference call are provided on our website. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Pierre.

Pierre Brondeau

Thank you, Curt. Today, I want to spend most of my time on the commercial actions we announced on October 15. Why we decided to take them and what they mean for the business going forward. I'll then walk through our third quarter results in more detail and the forward outlook. First, some brief context on the quarter. Our underlying performance was below our expectations before considering the impact of the commercial actions. Through the early part of September, third quarter performance was tracking broadly in line.

However, during the final weeks of the quarter, channel customers in several key markets sharply reduced replenishment orders as they thought to close the season with lower inventory levels. Given the importance of September, to Q3 results, the impact on sales was significant. But the underlying short fall does not explain the magnitude of the actions we announced on October 15. Apart from weaker demand, there is an issue, which is having an outsized impact on the business. In response to high financing costs, the perception of import supply and demand uncertainty, channel customers are seeking to hold the lowest inventory values we have ever seen.

For FMC, this creates a specific constraint for 2 reasons. First, a North America business model has been based on a higher gross price followed by significant rebates. As a result, the gross invoice price carried in customers' inventory can remain above the expected net price until those rebates are earned and paid. Second, some customers are holding SMT products that entered the channel at prices above current market levels. These products were sold on different cost structures, competitive conditions and levels of patent protection. The elevated price of these products can delay their movement downstream to growers.

Both reasons increase the value of FMC inventory held by customers. This limits customers' ability or willingness to place orders across the FMC portfolio. To address this issue, we are taking 2 actions to reduce the value of their FMC channel inventory. These actions are resulting in the third quarter EBITDA impact of $672 million. First, we are transitioning the North America business model to a framework that brings the upfront price closer to the expected net price. This change resulted in approximately $500 million charge in the third quarter.

This is a noncash charge, which does not change future cash obligations. These charge related to the first commercial actions consist of 2 components. The first and larger components reflect pricing and rebate adjustments associated with the transition to the new model. Under the previous model, fourth quarter sales would have continued at a higher gross price. With high rebate paid after the end of the crop season. Since we moved to the new model on October 1, which is the start of the North America are season, that same gross price and rebate cycle will not continue in the fourth quarter.

As a result, the remaining adjustments associated with the recently completed crop season was recognized in the third quarter. The second component reflects adjustments needed to bring inventory already in the North America channel from the higher gross price closer to post rebate net price. The new model is expected to materially reduce the volatility associated with future rebate payments. It should also provide a simple pricing structure for FMC and our customers while allowing those customers to manage the value of FMC inventory more closely with the current market condition.

In addition, bringing the upfront price closer to the expected net price should make it easier for customers to position FMC products competitively against generic alternatives downstream. The second commercial action we are taking is to reduce the price of select high-priced products held by channel customers in Brazil, Argentina, the U.S. and Canada. These adjustments are intended to bring the value of that inventory closer to FMC's current pricing. To be clear, we are only adjusting the value of high-priced products already in the channel.

Our objective is to support movement of these affected product downstream to growers and remove the constraint on future replenishment of FMC products. These actions represent the remaining approximately $175 million EBITDA impact and applies to select products sold into the channel since 2023.

It is the only component of the total charge that is expected to reduce future cash collections. These pricing adjustments will be booked against accounts receivable or via pricing credits on new orders. We have managed these higher-priced products in the channel as part of our ongoing business operations, expecting to break down their pricing incrementally over time.

After assessing our third quarter results, the industry outlook and the need to change a North America business model. It became clear at that time that more comprehensive actions were needed given the priority customers are placing on holding very low inventory values. We have spent the past several years making significant changes to the company. We have lowered costs, change our manufacturing footprint, generated significant proceeds to support our balance sheet and advanced new products to market allowing this inventory issue to continue constraining the business will limit our ability to fully realize the benefits of that work.

Therefore, we have decided to address the issue more comprehensively now. The faster products move downstream to growers, the quicker we can start to realize the benefit of our current competitive pricing. Moreover, the manufacturing changes underway across our legacy portfolio are expected to further improve our cost position and our ability to compete. While the final impact of these actions is reflected in the third quarter results implementation is just beginning.

Discussions with customers are taking place now, and we expect to transition the transition to occur over the next 3 quarters. Initial customer feedback has been very positive and reinforces our view that these actions address an important commercial constraint. Our priority is now on implementing them in a disciplined and structured way. With that context, let me turn to our third quarter results, I outlined on Slide 4, 5 and 6.

Third quarter revenue was $106 million including approximately $639 million of impact from the commercial actions. Excluding the commercial actions in India, Underlying sales were $745 million. This was below the low end of our original guidance due to lower-than-expected volumes. Price was a year-on-year headwind, including the effect of our strategic pricing actions for products which have recently lost IP protection.

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was negative $559 million including approximately $672 million associated with the commercial actions. Excluding those actions, underlying EBITDA was $113 million. This was below the low end of our original game as weaker-than-expected volume were partially offset by better-than-expected cost. Adjusted earnings per share were negative $4.41, which was well below our initial guidance due mainly to the impact from the commercial actions.

Turning now to Slide 7 for our updated fourth quarter outlook. We expect the challenging market conditions that we observed in the third quarter to continue. This includes strain grower margins a highly competitive market and demand uncertainty in multiple regions stemming from potential line impact. We are guiding fourth quarter revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.14 billion, which is about flat versus prior year at the midpoint as volume growth is offset by a high single-digit price decline.

The pricing headwind is mostly driven by strategic pricing actions but transitioning to the post patent phase. Higher volumes are expected to be driven by increased direct to grow sales in Brazil growth of new products and more competitive FMC pricing. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $210 million and $230 million, a decline of 22% versus the prior year. Lower pricing and an FX headwind are expected to be partially offset by higher volume and favorable costs. This is lower than our prior Q4 guidance due mainly to an increase in the pricing headwind. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $0.56 and $0.70. I will now turn the call over to Andrew.

Andrew Sandifer

Thanks, Per. I'll start this morning with some income statement items. Third quarter sales reflect a minor FX tailwind and with favorability from the Brazilian real, partially offset by modest strengthening of several EMEA currencies. FX was a modest headwind in EBITDA due to shifts in currency values versus how we were hedged. Looking forward to the rest of the year, we expect a similar profile, a minor FX tailwind at revenue, combined with a modest FX headwind at EBITDA. .

Third quarter interest expense of $73.6 million was up $9 million versus the prior year period, with the impact of financing activity earlier in the year, only partially offset by lower foreign borrowing and higher interest income. We expect full year 2026 interest expense to be in the range of $270 million to $280 million, up approximately $35 million versus the prior year at the midpoint. Due to the impacts of the recent financing activity, partially offset by lower foreign interest expense. We continue to expect depreciation and amortization for full year 2026 to be between $160 million and $170 million.

There were several extraordinary changes in the third quarter charges in the third quarter. We took charges of $639 million against revenue and $672 million against EBITDA and coming from the commercial actions that Pierre described a few moments ago. These charges impact both GAAP and adjusted metrics as reported. There are 2 additional charges that impact our GAAP earnings this quarter that are excluded from our adjusted metrics, consistent with our non-GAAP reporting policy. We recorded noncash adjustments of approximately $809 million to deferred tax assets in the United States and Switzerland as well as a noncash impairment charge against our indefinite-lived intangible assets related to our Rynaxypyr business of $288 million.

These charges reflect revised expectations regarding future operating results and cash flows that reduced the book value of these assets. As a result of the commercial charges, and expected negative reported earnings before tax for full year 2026. We now expect a full year effective tax rate on adjusted earnings of 12% to 14%. The effective tax rate on adjusted earnings through the quarter is now 13% in the midpoint of this range. Moving next to free cash flow on Slide 8. Free cash flow in the third quarter was negative $18 million, $214 million better than the prior year period

Significantly lower EBITDA in part due to the commercial action charges was more than offset by working capital improvement. Free cash flow before restructuring was modestly positive after considering the $23 million in cash restructuring spending in the quarter. In light of the year-to-date performance and the conditions that led to our taking the commercial actions discussed we've updated our outlook for free cash flow for 2026. We now expect full year of 2026 free cash flow to be in the range of negative $350 million to negative $150 million.

This change in outlook for free cash flow is driven by several factors, including lower than previously expected Q3 results, lower than previously expected Q4 EBITDA outlook, lower collections in Q4 and and somewhat higher restructuring spending. We traditionally received large advanced payments from customers, particularly in the United States during the fourth quarter. Our free cash flow forecast assumes similar levels of customer prepayments is in 2025. And Further, our full year free cash flow guidance includes an expected $180 million in restructuring spending.

Therefore, free cash flow before restructuring is expected to be negative $170 million to positive $30 million. Moving next to the balance sheet, leverage and liquidity. We ended the third quarter with gross debt of approximately $4.2 billion, up $103 million from year-end 2025. Cash on hand increased $259 million to $736 million. This resulted in net debt of approximately $3.4 billion, $48 million lower than at year-end 2025.

Cash and net debt this quarter reflect the $403 million equity investment by Tecendrelo Group that closed on September 23. With this investment, to Cenlar Group now owns approximately 20% of FMC's outstanding common stock. We were in compliance with all covenants at September 30. Covenant EBITDA is calculated differently from reported adjusted EBITDA and and the definite allows charges like the commercial action charges taken in the third quarter to be added back for covenant purposes. Secured debt to covenant EBITDA was 1.4x, well below the 3.5x covenant.

Interest coverage was 2.3x above the minimum 2.0x. And while total debt covenant EBITDA is not formally measured for the third quarter, this metric would have been 6.1x as compared to the 6.75x covenant limit. It will be reinstated at December 31, 2026. We continue to make good progress on the 2 transactions we expect to close in the fourth quarter, both of which will generate additional cash proceeds. The sale of our India business remains on track for a planned December 1 close and the sale-leaseback of our Delaware site is also expected to close by year-end. Cash and debt at September 30 reflect the proceeds from the remission licensing deal and the Decenderlo Group equity investment.

Assuming the India and Delaware transactions closed in the fourth quarter as expected and considering our outlook for free cash flow, we expect to end 2026 with net debt of approximately $3.1 billion, with no outstanding revolver balance. At this level of debt and guided EBITDA, we expect to remain in compliance with all covenants at year-end. Further, we expect to remain in compliance with all covenants through 2027. We have a solid liquidity position supported by meaningful cash on hand and available borrowing capacity to our facilities.

We are confident this positions us well to meet the needs of the business. While the commercial actions take effect -- we will prioritize liquidity. And as such, we intend to largely self-finance the seasonal working capital build in the first half of 2027. And with that, I'll hand the call back to Pierre.

Pierre Brondeau

Thank you, Andrew. Before I close and following Andrew's comments on the Tessenderlo Group investments, I want to formally welcome Luc Tack, CEO of Tessenderlo Group to the Board of Directors. We look forward to working with in. The commercial actions we discussed earlier are directly connected to our 4 operational priorities but do not represent a change in our strategy. Instead, they enable their implementation and form the basis for how we are thinking about performance in 2027 and 2028.

With that as a backdrop, then provide some preliminary perspective on these 2 years. We will provide formal 2027 gains and additional perspective in 2028 in February. At that point, planning will be complete and we'll have had the time to assess how quickly our commercial actions are taking effect. For today, I want to share the preliminary ranges reflected in our current planning. We expect 2027 to mark the beginning of a financial inflection for FMC. Sales of the new active ingredients are expected to increase, led mainly by Fun taper, where we have new registration pending in 6 new countries, along with continued expansion in existing markets.

Potential irrigations for Isoflex in Spain, France and Belgium will also contribute to growth of new actives. In addition, differentiated renexatia formulation and mixture are also expected to support the branded portfolio. The benefit of the commercial action should build over the year as FMC products move more quickly through the channel. These actions will lower our costs by reducing product return and rework. In addition, we expect partial year benefit from our ongoing manufacturing changes weighted towards the second half of the year.

Together, these actions are expected to support improved competitiveness and growth across the portfolio. As part of our manufacturing footprint redesign, Sales at per manufacturing will move to 1 of our low-cost manufacturing sites. While this will negatively impact 2027 partner sales as cost reduction flow through cost plus arrangements. The much larger brand business will benefit from the lower cost base.

Based on a preliminary we currently see 2027 adjusted EBITDA of at least $650 million and as much as $730 million. We recognize this is a broad rate where we'll land within it will depend on how quickly the commercial actions we discussed today improve the flow of our products with the channel to grow. Looking ahead to 2028, we expect a greater contribution from the same drivers described for 2027. The transition associated with the commercial actions is expected to be largely complete and the new manufacturing footprint should be delivering a broader cost benefit across the core portfolio for the full year.

Growth from new active ingredients is expected to accelerate further through the continued expansion of fluindapyr with increased contribution from Isoflex and Derivex. Isoflex is expected to gain key registration in Europe and Donilex in Brazil and Asia during 2028. We also expect the first launch of Rense the headwind from diamide partner contracts is expected to be much smaller. As shown on Slide 10, these factors are expected to support strong growth and earnings profile for FMC based on our preliminary planning, we currently expect 2028 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $760 million to $840 million billion.

We also expect 2028 to be a year with much stronger cash generation helped by greatly reduced cash restructuring spending. We recognize that confidence in FMC can only be rebuilt through execution and results. Our priorities are clear: complete the commercial actions protect liquidity, lower the cost of our core portfolio and continue growing new technologies. With that, we are ready to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

질의응답

Vincent Andrews

I wanted to try to get a sense of what cash flow will look like for 2027 and I guess a couple of things. Andrew, I think you made a comment about what you thought prepayments would be in the fourth quarter, but I wasn't clear whether you thought they would be the same as last year, you thought it'd be a lot lower than than last year?

And then if you could also talk to the $175 million from the third quarter actions, the future cash effect of that, is that that you will have to forgo cash collection in 2027 and beyond to provide that $175 million back to your customers? Or is some of that just a write-down of receivables? And any other bridge items for cash flow next year as well would be helpful. And any sort of sense of how positive it could be would be helpful.

Andrew Sandifer

Sure. That's a lot there. I'll try to see if we can knock that in various pieces. To start with the simple one. Our free cash flow guidance for 2026 assumes flat prepays to the prior year, so the same level of customer prepays that we received in 2025. As we look ahead to 2027 Obviously, EBITDA growth will be a big contributor to the free cash flow prospects. We do have some relatively fixed pieces of our walk from free cash -- from EBITDA to free cash flow, particularly cash when we look at interest expense, relatively cash taxes, legacy expenses, et cetera.

We're continuing to work through the budget for 2025. So we're not prepared to give formal guidance on free cash flow today. I would suggest certainly that there is a continued high level of restructuring spending in 2027, though at a lower level than what we're experiencing in 2026. We have guided to $180 million roughly of cash spending on restructuring in 2026. It will be lower than that in 2027, but still a meaningful drag on cash flow.

At this point in our budgeting process, we believe it's possible to get to a free cash flow before restructuring that's breakeven, but it would not at this point, it's going to be premature to give too much of a guidance. To your specific question around the commercial actions, I'll give a brief answer here. The $175 million, which is really adjusting the value of inventory held by customers that was sold under very different market conditions and at much higher prices. That will be executed through credit notes or pricing credits against future orders. Credit notes would reduce the value of accounts receivable that's not yet been collected.

So that is theoretically at least a reduction in future cash flows. The time it may, in fact, actually accelerate collection in places where that product may not have moved as quickly may allow us to bring cash forward more than what it might have without taking those incentives. And in other places where that inventory has been paid for by customers, it would be a pricing credit against future sales. So it just reduces the amount of cash we would receive from customers on that future sales.

So over a 4- to 6-quarter period, that probably is a cash headwind for the company. But again, there may be some offsets there in terms of collections that would have either been further delayed or potential bad debt write-offs or other issues if that product were not repriced and unable to move through the channel more quickly. So I don't personally view that as 100% cash headwind over the long-term horizon.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Salvator Tiano with KeyBanc.

Unknown Analyst

Yes. Thank you very much. I just want to continue a little bit on the free cash flow. As you said, the $175 million is pretty much forgoing receivables, $500 million, if I understood correctly, is the timing. So theoretically you were going to give these rebates, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, they are accrued already in your liabilities. It's just that you're giving them earlier. So can you tell us in your updated Q4 -- sorry, in your updated 2026 guidance for free cash flow, how much of that $175 million do you assume essentially you're not getting back this year versus the next few quarters that you said for '26?

And out of the $500 million as well, how much do you think is this year versus next year as it's brought forward versus when it was originally supposed to affect your cash flow.

Andrew Sandifer

So why don't we take that in reverse order and Pierre certainly jump in anywhere here. On the $500 million, there is no impact to '26 to '26 cash flow the rebates that we have to pay cash rebates that we'll pay in December in the U.S. are earned on sales that our customers made to their customers and the market year from October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026. The payment of those rebates has always been in our free cash outlook for 2026.

There is no change from that action and what we expect to have a cash outflow in 2026. In 2027, we will be selling at a lower gross price, but we'll also be paying substantially lower rebates as that difference between the gross price and the net price is much lower. We don't believe there's any impact on our cash flow from that change in rebates over the crop year. There may be some timing impacts where historically in North America, we would sell in -- particularly Q4, Q1, Q2, we would collect that -- we would sell at a high gross price historically.

We would collect those sales in the second and third quarters. and then we didn't pay a very large rebate in the fourth quarter. This year, we'll sell in a similar kind of timing, but we will sell at a lower gross price, so we will collect a lower amount in Q2 and Q3 and but we will pay out a substantial lower rebate in Q4. such that by the time we get to Q4 of '27, we don't believe there's really a net impact from that $500 million in rebate charges to the cash of the company.

It does change between quarter-to-quarter, but not over the crop season. So I think that's an important thing to understand about the changes in the pricing structure and the rebate in North America.

Pierre Brondeau

Yes. I think let me add a comment around how much of the $125 million cash leakage could be expected in 2026. It is still a number we are looking at is not a large part of the $175 million because as you can understand, we are at the end of October, and we are starting to implement commercial actions now. So we are right now putting in place the plan for the next 2 weeks to be discussed with the customers. Some of those actions will lead to assurance of credit notes during maybe the second half of November and December to get this process started.

But it is not a very significant amount of the $175 million, we are overall expecting to generate as credit notes.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

Matthew DeYoe

On. Pierre, we get a lot of questions around go-forward revenues and the cost structure of the company and just maybe somewhat of a hard floor on for it. But clearly, as sales have come under pressure, some of your like overhead costs have ballooned a bit as a percent of revenue, right? Maybe not so much on an absolute dollar basis. But if you think about the cost structure of FMC, you shifted from mid-teens SG&A to sales to over 20%.

So what -- what can you do to address that cost structure from an overhead perspective? I know you're obviously very focused on the operational side of the business. But from an overhead, obviously, what can you do there? And then can FMC still support the same amount of just overall R&D spend that it has? Or is that something that you also have to kind of take some measures on to be more efficient?

Pierre Brondeau

Yes. I mean the percentage of SG&A increase versus sales comes more from the decline in sales that increase in G&A. If you look over the last few years, our SG&A cost has remained in that number roughly flattish, which means we've been more than absorbing all of the inflation, which has been significant. We had a cost restructuring in '24, '25 to eliminate $300 million of SG&A cost. We then have the manufacturing footprint where we have eliminated about 1,000 positions shut down 3 plants.

We had another restructuring in September where we've been eliminated another safety position. And we've just made a move where we've been eliminating among the top 100 position about 20 to 25 high compensation. So we are getting to a place where we will not save the performance of the company through future cost savings, it is absolutely vital. And that's centered to what we do now. FMC will return to high performance only depending upon our ability to grow and that's where if you look at our strategic pillars and the commercial actions we are taking, that is where all of our focus will be -- we certainly intend to maintain flat SG&A spend, which mean absorbing inflation going forward.

That being said, the focus has to be to return to growth in '27 and '28. We do believe -- we do believe very strongly and only in the next few quarters, we'll prove that that the actions we are taking are absolutely vital in terms of returning back to growth. We have a portfolio with a new manufacturing cost, which will be cost competitive. We do have new technologies for which we are getting more and more registration by '28, we will have 3 of those products fully commercial. We are going to see the benefit in '27 and '28, thanks to the commercial actions of less return, less rework, less of an impact of credit notes so we have a pretty strong certainty that we are handling in '27 and '28 back to growth.

I will obviously result in a decrease of as a percent of sales. But where I am focused right now after all of the restructuring we've done over the last 3 years is getting the corporation back to growth. And that's why this last action we took. And I'll tell you, it's been in my mind for the last month. I just needed a a point where I felt there was no other way to move forward to bring back growth to the company that we took those actions, and they will be vital to go back to growth.

So -- that's where the focus is. I think we've done a lot in cost structure. Obviously, if we do not succeed in growing the top line, then we are facing another problem. And then you're right, we're going to have to look at our infrastructure costs for the company. But right now, almost solely focused with the actions we are taking on top line growth, which we believe is very achievable with the last set of actions we have taken, which are very critical. And by the way, to make a comment.

I can tell you, I was myself with customers over the last few days. We are meeting with all of our customers. We are preparing a plan per customer. It is very, very well received. On the point -- the last point you made around R&D. At this stage, R&D is a very solid contributor to growth. We do have 4 new active upbringing in the market we have multiple products in the pipeline, which are very interesting, and we need to keep on accelerating formulation research in the region.

I would like to hold R&D spending where it is today. Now I am not excluding the fact that we might have to think in the future and maybe the very near future about R&D with a different model, which is all based on partnership. That is what is more critical today, which is developing single molecule new active by yourself as a company might be a story of the past and in the future, I believe we're going to have to join force with partners on specific projects to increase the speed of development and reduce the cost.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Duffy Fisher with Goldman Sachs.

Patrick Fischer

Can we just go back to the $500 million charge, that part of it? Roughly, what's the split between the transition to new pricing model and adjusting the gross price would be question one. And then two, for each of those transactions, can you walk through the double entry accounting basically, what happened in Q3 through the P&L, balance sheet, cash flow statement and then what happens with those going forward.

Andrew Sandifer

Duffy, it's Andrew. Let me take a crack at some of this. Certainly, the $500 million charge in the quarter, that split about 60-40 between the change in the pricing structure of the mechanics itself versus the change in the gross to net price on historic inventory. In terms of the flow-through of those items from the income statement to the balance statement A big chunk of it goes against the crude rebates. The next biggest piece goes against trade receivables and then there's some minor adjustments to advance payments and current liabilities. .

But when we publish the more detailed balance sheet and accompanying notes with 10-Q later today, that will be a little more transparent. But those are really -- those are the 3 lines on the balance sheet that are most directly impacted on our -- from these charges in Q3. And again, from a Q3 perspective, there's really no cash impact. These are noncash charges. The only time that there's a cash impact is in the future periods, and it's really not related to the $500 million rebate pricing structure change in North America as we just described in a few questions ago.

It's much more related to where we're giving credit notes and pricing adjustments for channel inventory held by customers that was sold at much higher prices and it's held in inventory value by our customers at much higher prices.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Kevin, please go ahead.

Kevin McCarthy

Andrew, maybe a couple for you. With regard to the pending divestiture of your India business, are you still expecting to extract $200 million of working capital in addition to the $252 million transaction value and then secondly, I'd welcome your thoughts on what you're baking into your guidance for any foreign exchange-related impacts given the volatility in the Brazilian reais postelection?

Andrew Sandifer

Yes. Great questions. We'll start with India. Look, we are currently -- we're updating our carrying value for the India held-for-sale business to a fair value of $260 million at the September 30 print date. You will see this in 10-Q that we file later today. We started the year with a carrying value of about $450 million with the gross proceeds that we expect the terms of the initial sign of the deal, about $250 million. .

Cash collected of about -- we're expecting to collect about $130 million this year before closing. We've collected $115 million in cash year-to-date from the India business. The different -- the remaining difference is deal fees, FX, some other frictions that come with the executing of the transaction. But essentially, we've been around a 400 number for the value of that transaction from the beginning. The headline price plus the cash received. Obviously, there's always frictions with executing a transaction, but we're still in that same ballpark.

So we're very pleased with progress. Like I said, we're on track for the December 1 close. We think we have a very good partner in crystal crop in terms of out of a route to market for our new technology going forward in India. So we think they're going to be a very, very good partner to work with over the long term in addition to this initial transaction.

So we're very, very excited about that, the trickier sorry, I pause there, the trickier part of your question. Obviously, last weekend's election in Brazil has caused a bit of a market upset with BRL it's basically I think from our viewpoint, it's basically reversed strengthening the Brazil with the expectations by polls at the election might go the other way. So for a lot of our planning purposes for the rest of '26 and '27, we were planning at levels pre that run up.

So not a specific headwind that I would point to in our Q4 outlook related to the BRL and certainly, the current rates factor in very much in the way we're thinking about 2027.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lucas Beaumont with UBS.

Your next question comes from the line of Laurent Favre with BNP Paribas.

Laurent Favre

I'd like to go back to, I guess, the 2027 early look that you provided, I'm more thinking about the industry backdrop. I was wondering how you've been sort of tensing in price against variable costs. I understand you will have benefits on manufacturing costs, but I would have assumed that the disruptions related to the Middle East would start to sort of show up into the variable cost inflation side, are you assuming you get pricing back into positive territories into '27? .

Pierre Brondeau

Let me take this opportunity to Laurent to give you an overall view of how we think about '27 just to break it down along the line of the way we describe the company. We believe our core business should be back to growth even at a low level because we will not yet be benefiting for the full year from the manufacturing cost. We are not today, there is some level of inflation of raw materials, but for some reason, it is not a number which is dramatically impacting manufacturing cost. It is, to some extent, but it is not a big driver.

So when we look at our business, the core business will be growing in the low single digit, mostly driven for us by a normalized channel with the commercial actions we are taking and we continue to grow our direct sales in Brazil, and that include pricing into the equation, but not expecting a major cost increase from raw material. Then we are looking at the growth platform. I think it's going to be up in the mid-teens, and that is driven by new active ingredients, which we believe will be growing 50%, mostly driven by fluindapyr that year.

And then when you look at costs, much more important that inflation cost on raw material we're expecting a very significant decrease of cost because of the fact that we will have cleaned up the channel inventory we're going to be way less return of products, which we've been getting over the last few years, which impact top line we will be getting, obviously, less rework to do when we receive those products. And of course, with the atoms we have taken way less impact of credit notes. If you think about cost of the corporation, that is going to have a much cost and even turbine, a much more much, much greater impact than the inflation we are seeing today with the Detroit of on wood with the Strand situation.

Finish 1 single comment. Maybe to get you towards the EBITDA. If you take the 3 comments I made around core around growth and the improvement linked to the change of the channel and the lower cost. We've applied to those 3, and we've quantified each of those 3 and applied in EBITDA in the 18% to 19% and that is what is driving us to the kind of range we are giving for '27.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

Laurence Alexander

So just to clarify 1 of the comments about the core business. When you say it's back to growth, is your intention for '27 and '28 that both volume and price will be net positive? Or will it be back to growth in the sense that volumes are positive, but net price is probably negative or negative relative to inflation and you're making up for that elsewhere in the portfolio. .

Pierre Brondeau

So the first one, we're impacting that the price volume will be a net positive for us. and even greater in '28, where we'll have a full year impact of the new manufacturing footprint.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lucas Beaumont with UBS.

Lucas Beaumont

I just wanted to follow up on the free cash flow. So I mean, the for the year, you sort of reduced the outlook by $400 million there. It seems like maybe $70 million of that is kind of associated with the cut to the second half EBITDA. Can you kind of just walk us through the buckets of what the rest is sort of baked in their place?

Andrew Sandifer

Yes. So if we look at the full year cash flow outlook versus our prior guide certainly, it starts with the reduction in EBITDA, right? We underperformed the midpoint of our prior guidance for Q3 by about $17 million. We've reduced the outlook for Q4 by $75 million. So it's nearly $100 million reduction in the EBITDA outlook for the full year on an underlying basis. .

Second thing I'd point to is sales also lagged in the third quarter and its compound lower sales that we experienced earlier in the year to where the collections and that we will collect from sales made earlier in the year. Particularly from the under delivery of sales in Q3 and see things we sold in Q3 that a portion of which we would have collected in Q4 are lower than what we had previously expected. For sales that we make in Q4 that we collect in Q4 which is nontrivial portion of our U.S. business.

Because of the shift in gross pricing, we could sell the same number of units collected a lower amount of gross sales in the fourth quarter and certainly from forecast to forecast, that is a reduction in collections in Q4. Now the natural offset to that is in Q4 of '27 we will be paying significantly lower rebates. That's my earlier comment about over the cycle, those rebate changes in North America really should be cash flow neutral. And then finally, there is some amount of credit notes that will be applied in Q4.

As Pierre described earlier, that's a very active discussion. We have an estimate in there. It could be higher and lower based on how timing and how agreements are reached with customers, but that does factor in as well. So those combination of 4 factors are essentially how we shift from the prior recast guidance to our current guidance.

Pierre Brondeau

Just 1 comment about the $175 million, the last comment, and we made. The more we use is not always the news because that would mean that we are reaching agreements with customers. So there would be some level of payment but there would be some significant level of increased revenues from those transactions. So we have made some assumptions but going beyond what we have is not at all bad news from a potential growth in Q4 above what we have in the plan should those contract be reached with customers faster than what we have in the plan.

Operator

This concludes the FMC Corporation earnings call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.