몬델레즈 인터내셔널(MDLZ) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 판매량 성장 및 2027년 EPS 전망

핵심 요약

• 몬델레즈 인터내셔널이 2026년 매출 및 EPS 전망을 유지했습니다. 경영진은 신흥 시장이 강력한 성장 동력으로 유지된 반면, 북미와 유럽 시장도 지속적으로 개선되었다고 밝혔습니다.
• 유럽은 때 아닌 무더위로 지역 성장이 약 1%포인트 감소했음에도 불구하고 1.6%포인트의 플러스 판매량/제품 믹스 성장을 기록했습니다.
• 경영진은 판매량 중심 성장, 생산성 향상에 따른 비용 절감, 신흥 및 선진 시장 전반의 모멘텀에 힘입어 2027년에도 강력한 EPS 성장을 달성할 것으로 확신하고 있습니다.
• 유통망 확대는 여전히 주요 성장 동력입니다. 몬델레즈는 올해 들어 현재까지 인도의 판매처를 약 13만 개 추가했고, 브라질에서는 100만 개 매장을 돌파했으며, 중국, 인도, 브라질 전역에서 약 25%의 수량적 유통 추가 잠재력이 있는 것으로 추정했습니다.
• 코코아 시장 수급 여건(펀더멘털)은 2024년보다 상당 부분 개선된 것으로 설명되었습니다. 경영진은 2025~2026 주기가 거의 50만 톤의 공급 과잉으로 마무리되어, 2026~2027 주기에 예상되는 약 19만 톤의 공급 부족에 대한 완충 장치가 될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 몬델레즈는 언더커버 스낵(Undercover Snacks)의 과반 지분을 인수하기로 합의했습니다. 이번 거래는 규제 당국의 승인 및 기타 거래 종결 조건에 따라 2027년 초에 완료될 것으로 예상됩니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

신흥 시장

소비자 심리는 전반적으로 견조하게 유지되었습니다. 경영진은 인도를 매우 긍정적으로, 멕시코와 브라질을 견조한 것으로 평가했습니다. 중국은 다소 약세를 보였으나, 회사는 해당 시장에 대해 여전히 긍정적인 입장을 유지했습니다.

몬델레즈는 비스킷과 초콜릿 부문이 선전하면서 신흥 시장 전반에서 양호한 판매량 및 매출 성장을 기록했습니다. 신규 판매처 확보, 매장 내 더 큰 냉장 진열대 설치, 매장당 입점 제품 수 확대 등 유통망 확장은 여전히 전략의 핵심으로 유지되었습니다.

라틴아메리카에서는 아르헨티나 사업이 현금 확보 중심으로 운영되고 대폭적인 가격 인상을 단행함에 따라 판매량에 가장 큰 걸림돌로 작용했습니다. 브라질의 경우, 이전에 실시한 초콜릿 가격 인상 및 용량 조정 조치가 판매량/제품 믹스에 압박을 가했으나, 경영진은 해당 카테고리가 반등 기미를 보이며 점유율을 확대하고 있다고 설명했습니다.

유럽

유럽의 소비자 심리는 에너지 가격과 생활비 압박 속에 대체로 안정적이었으나 신중한 모습을 보였습니다. 몬델레즈는 광고 및 소비자 투자를 비롯해 마케팅 활성화와 혁신에 힘입어 플러스 판매량/제품 믹스 성장과 시장 점유율 개선 추세를 나타냈습니다.

지난해의 대폭적인 인상 효과가 소멸되고 2026년 초에 실시한 선택적 가격 조정(특히 초콜릿 분야)이 반영되면서 가격 인상률은 마이너스를 유지했습니다. 경영진은 이러한 조치가 브랜드 침투율, 소비자 충성도 및 매출총이익 금액을 보호하기 위한 것이라고 밝혔습니다.

북미

소비자 심리는 여전히 약세를 보였으며, 성장은 고소득 가구에 집중되었습니다. 몬델레즈는 자사의 실적이 절제된 프로모션, 침투율이 낮았던 채널에서의 확장, 광고 및 소비자 투자 확대, 신제품 혁신 덕분이라고 평가했습니다.

회사는 가격을 전반적으로 인하하지 않고, 프로모션의 할인 폭과 빈도를 정밀 조정했습니다. 2027년을 전망하며 경영진은 점유율과 판매량/제품 믹스 모멘텀을 지키기 위해 가격 인상을 선택적으로 유지할 것이라고 말했습니다. 생산성 향상과 공급망 절감 효과가 인플레이션 압력을 상쇄하는 데 도움이 될 것으로 기대됩니다.

언더커버 스낵 인수

언더커버 스낵(Undercover Snacks)은 헬시 플레저(better-for-you) 및 부담 없는 디저트(permissible-indulgence) 세그먼트에 위치한 글루텐 프리, 알레르기 유발 물질 배제 초콜릿 바삭 스낵을 제공합니다. 이 브랜드는 타겟(Target), 월마트(Walmart) 등의 소매점을 통해 유통되며 2023년부터 유나이티드 항공 노선에서도 제공되고 있습니다.

몬델레즈는 북미 벤처 포트폴리오 내에서 이 사업을 독립 단위로 운영할 계획입니다. 다이애나 레비(Diana Levy) CEO는 직책을 유지합니다. 경영진은 몬델레즈가 광범위한 유통망, 조달 역량, 소비자 인사이트, 마케팅 전문성을 통해 성장을 지원할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 이번 인수가 2027년 실적에 실질적인 기여를 하지는 않을 것으로 예상됩니다.

경영진 가이던스

몬델레즈는 2026년 매출 및 EPS 전망을 유지했습니다. 경영진은 추가적인 실적 상승분이 발생할 경우 혁신, 신흥 시장, 광고 및 소비자 지원 등에 지속적으로 재투자하는 한편 중동 분쟁 관련 비용을 흡수할 것이라고 밝혔습니다.

2026년 4분기에 대해 경영진은 판매량/제품 믹스의 지속적인 성장과 함께 매출총이익 및 영업이익 금액의 강력한 성장을 예상했습니다. 구체적인 분기 가이던스는 제공하지 않았습니다.

2027년에 대해 경영진은 강력한 EPS 성장에 대한 확신을 재확인했습니다. 예상 동인으로는 판매량 중심 성장, 신흥 시장의 지속적인 호조, 유럽 시장의 안정화, 북미 시장의 모멘텀, 생산성 향상을 통한 비용 절감 등이 꼽힙니다. 회사는 구체적인 2027년 매출 전망을 제시하기에는 아직 이르다고 덧붙였습니다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 에너지 및 연료 가격 상승이 특히 북미와 유럽 소비자들에게 부담으로 작용하고 있습니다.
• 몬델레즈는 화물 운송, 유제품, 유지류, 포장재 분야에서 인플레이션을 겪고 있습니다.
• 중동 분쟁으로 일부 시장에서 추가 비용이 발생하고 인플레이션 우려가 커지고 있습니다.
• 유럽은 전년도의 가격 인상 효과가 소멸되고 이전의 선택적 가격 조정이 반영됨에 따라 향후 몇 분기 동안 가격 인상률이 마이너스를 기록할 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 2026~2027년에 예상되는 코코아 공급 부족은 코트디부아르와 가나의 초기 메인 크롭(주 수확기) 성작 부진과 강력한 엘니뇨 전망을 반영하지만, 경영진은 현재 재고가 충분한 보호 수단이 될 것으로 판단하고 있습니다.
• 중국의 소비자 여건은 여전히 약세를 보이고 있으며, 아르헨티나는 라틴아메리카 보고 판매량에 계속 압박을 가하고 있습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

2027년 강력한 EPS 성장을 뒷받침하는 요인은 무엇인가요? 경영진은 판매량 중심 성장, 신흥 시장의 강세, 유럽 시장 안정화, 북미 시장 모멘텀 및 생산성 절감을 꼽았습니다. 이러한 요인들이 화물 운송 및 기타 원자재 인플레이션을 상쇄할 것으로 예상됩니다.

몬델레즈가 북미 시장에서 가격을 인상할 예정인가요? 회사는 2027년에 대한 선택적 조치를 검토하고 있으나, 시장 점유율과 판매량/제품 믹스 보호를 강조했습니다. 프로모션, 생산성 향상, 공급망 개선이 여전히 중요한 수익 레버리지로 작용할 것입니다.

유럽 지역 가격 인상률이 마이너스인 이유는 무엇인가요? 몬델레즈가 기저에 있는 전년도 대폭 가격 인상 효과를 지나고(lapping), 2026년 초에 단행한 선택적 조정을 반영하고 있기 때문입니다. 경영진은 이러한 효과가 향후 몇 분기 동안 이어질 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

신흥 시장 성장은 얼마나 지속 가능한가요? 경영진은 소매 판매처 수 확대, 추가적인 제품 입점, 그리고 중국, 인도, 브라질에 남아 있는 약 25%의 수량적 유통 잠재력을 언급했습니다.

M&A 전략은 무엇인가요? 몬델레즈는 지리적 또는 카테고리 공백을 메우는 표적형 보울트온(bolt-on) 인수를 계속 선호하고 있습니다. 경영진은 잠재적 보울트온 인수 대상이 소규모 거래부터 매출 약 5억 달러, 혹은 경우에 따라 10억 달러에 가까운 기업까지 다양할 수 있다고 언급했습니다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문 녹취록

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Mondelez International Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Question-and-Answer session. [Operator Instructions]

On today's call are Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and CEO; Luca Zaramella, COO; Amit Banati, CFO; and Shep Dunlap, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Earlier this afternoon, the company posted a press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on its website.

During the call, the company will make forward-looking statements about performance. These statements are based on how the company sees things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on forward-looking statements.

As the company discusses results today, unless noted as reported, you will be referencing non-GAAP financial measures which adjust for certain items included in the company's GAAP results. In addition to the company's year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted, you can find comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within the company's earnings release at the back of the slide presentation.

Operator

We will now move to our first question. And our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

질의응답

Andrew Lazar

Dirk, I was hoping we could start as we often do with some of your current thinking really around the state of the consumer in some of your key regions? And then I've just got a follow-up from Amit.

Dirk Van de Put

Thank you, Andrew. Yes, I think that makes sense. So if I start with emerging markets, I would say that the consumer overall, the confidence is resilient. There is a difference, like India is very positive. I would say, Latin America, with Mexico and Brazil is solid. And then China is softer, but overall, we remain constructive on China. The -- if you look at it, the -- we have good volume growth, we have strong top line growth. Snacking continues to perform well across all the major emerging markets. particularly pleased that the categories in value are holding up very well, particularly in biscuits and chocolate.

As you know, we continue to increase our distribution year-to-date, I think we've added about 130,000 outlets in India. Brazil, we're now over 1 million stores. And in China, we still have a very long runway. So we keep on doing that. And of course, there is inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East. And that is a concern with consumers, for instance, in India. But overall, we feel good about the consumer in emerging markets at this stage.

Switching to Europe. I would say the consumer there, the confidence is generally stable, maybe a little bit better than in the last quarter. but very cautious and you've seen some of the things that are going on due to the energy prices and the cost of living increases. So clearly, inflation is high on the mind of consumers. The other thing seen all the heavy price increases last year, most players in our markets are behaving very rationally.

And I think the good news is that we have a positive volume mix growth of 1.6 PP in Europe was very broad-based. And on top, our share dynamics are improving. You have to take into account that on top, we had unseasonably hot weather, which had a 1% negative effect on our growth in Europe. And we are very focused on execution. We are doing very strong A&C reinvestment. We are also focused on strong activations and we have some innovations like Bisco or the Milacron that are landing very well. And we think that the positive volume growth is going to continue for the rest of the year.

And then lastly, in North America, I would say consumer confidence remains soft, also driven by energy and fuel prices. And to be honest, I don't think it's going to improve anytime soon. The K-shaped economy continues where the growth is really coming from the higher income households. We feel good about our results in Q3 and year-to-date, and we expect them to continue with solid growth in North America, and that is driven by promo discipline, us growing more in the under-indexed channels and some of the innovation and activation is doing particularly well. So overall, I would say, a pretty solid picture in the quarter.

Andrew Lazar

Great. That's really helpful. And then Amit, Mondelez today, reiterated its forecast, right, for strong EPS growth in '27. I'd really like it if you can maybe just walk through some of the key puts and takes for next year, particularly around visibility into maintaining positive volume momentum and how we should think about price, particularly in the key European region?

Amit Banati

Yes. So I'll start. From a '26 standpoint, Andrew, I think we're going to -- we are maintaining our top line outlook as Dirk mentioned, in emerging markets, we are performing well. They remain a strong engine of volume and top line growth for us. We feel good about where we are in developed markets as well. performing well in North America despite a soft consumer. And you saw this quarter, we grew share as well as top line. So we're executing well in North America and Europe, we continue to progress well. This quarter, you saw us grow volume as we lap prices and made carry forward some selective price investments that we had made earlier in the year.

From an EPS standpoint, for this year, we're maintaining our outlook. I think we've been consistent that we're going to reinvest any upside back into the business into areas that are working, innovation like risk of emerging markets in the quarter, we continued to invest back into A&C as well. So from -- and of course, we're continuing to absorb the costs related to the Middle East war. So we're absorbing that within our outlook.

So from a '27 standpoint, I think despite increased volatility in the macro as well as headwinds from an inflation standpoint, I think we remain confident that we are going to drive strong EPS growth in '27. I think that's going to be on the back of volume-led growth into the year. I think we continue to expect strength in the emerging markets, increased stabilization in Europe, continued momentum in Europe, in the U.S.

And then, of course, we feel very good about our productivity program and the savings that we expect into next year. So we feel confident despite the inflation that we are seeing in freight and some other commodities, we feel good and confident about our delivery -- about our ability to drive strong EPS growth in '27.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

Peter Galbo

Dirk, I just wanted to follow up maybe starting in North America. You're 1 of the few packaged food companies that's posting kind of positive organic sales growth in North America, you're doing that through a combination of volume and price, at least year-to-date. And if I go back to the start of the year, you were pretty emphatic in your views that the kind of cutting price in North America wasn't the right strategy, whereas some of your competitors maybe were moving in that direction. I think that's proved true. And now we're just seeing the pendulum kind of swing the other way, where we're hearing more of your peers talk about taking pricing up. So maybe you can just comment on kind of how you see the environment evolving there, particularly from a price standpoint as we get into '27?

Dirk Van de Put

Yes. Thank you, Peter. I'll hand it over to Luca to talk about the North American business.

Luca Zaramella

Yes. So Peter, first of all, I think it was a solid Q3 performance. what underpin the performance once again is the outcomes of our shares that have been improving and consistently gaining traction throughout the year. Very happy with biscuits overall, particularly Sabre is really on a roll but also can be and clearly, in some cases, even in bars, we are gaining share through Sabre, which is really an outstanding brand.

As you said, the promotions tactics have changed for us, and they are yielding good results. I think we are well executing around the depth of those promotions. The frequency and those are clearly delivering a good level of incrementality to our business. So that's 1 thing that we have fixed and that is paying off. We didn't reduce prices, but we have become I think, more precise as to what we do when. Importantly, we have increased the A&C GP dollar in the U.S. was up in North America was up, but it was partially offset by A&C spending and definitely happy with the incrementality related to some innovation launches we have made.

So I think we are still cautious in terms of what type of pricing we had to take, and we are assessing carefully as we go into 2027, what we have to do. But in a nutshell, I think if you look at the volume/mix momentum, which we believe is going to accelerate [Audio Gap]

So Peter, I don't know where you lost me. But I gave quite an articulated answer. So let me repeat what I said. Look, as we boil down to the U.S. and North America in general. Look, we are quite pleased with the performance of the U.S. As you said, the share performance, I believe, in general, is quite positive, we very pleased with Savory that is at all in terms of share gains, risks and innovation is really resulting incrementality and delivering volume mix and share gains. So we are very pleased we can be sort of at is an outstanding brand that is delivering quite a bit of growth.

As I mentioned a few points, the bigger change we may seem, obviously, Q4 last year, it has been around promotion. And as it goes on to promotions, we had redefined June our strategies in a way that result in a near as opposed to last year where there was quite a big switching between regular prices and proper prices. We saw increase in AMC, and that is clearly helping us.

And finally, launches that we have made at our audio which mean is clarified protein are clearly resulted in positions. As we look at the shape of the P&L, there is clearly some inflationary pressure coming our way, but the reality -- the reality is we want to protect share and volume mix momentum. So we will be very selective on the pricing actions that we would take as a majority of them will be most likely to PVA and we have some plans as we walk into 2027.

I think you're going to see 1 good numbers in terms of share and volume momentum in Q4, and that momentum is critical to be kept into the P&L of 2027 as North America's algo leverage. coming out of it. And so a combination of oil mix, PPA selective pricing and the fact that we will continue pushing part on productivity and supply chain in North America is delivering with outcome.

We believe that we have what in place to keep on investing in the business and the events to the income in North america for next year.

Peter Galbo

Great. And apologies on the technical. Maybe just as a quick follow-up on Europe. I think it's kind of the opposite question, but just I think the pricing was maybe a bit light of expectations or down a bit more. Maybe you could just comment on kind of how you see that shaping up in Q4 and into next year as we think about exit rate?

Luca Zaramella

Look, I think, again, the -- we are quite pleased with the way Europe is turning the P&L in. Despite the of summer, clearly, things are moving in the right direction. You saw positive volume mix. You saw the impact of both chocolate and the other categories, it's positive across both chocolate and biscuit. The reality is, as I said consistently since the Q1 earnings, we made some selective price adjustments in Europe. And as we start lapping higher pricing in the second part of last year, those clearly are impacting through pricing, particularly in the chocolate category.

So I would say nothing really to worry about. Those are decisions that we made at the beginning of the year in terms of adjustments of pricing that we decided was the right thing to do. I think you have to say that the volume mix and the share numbers that we are seeing are clearly a reflection of those decisions were sound. And importantly, as I mentioned many times, we are looking at GP dollar growth. And so our goal has been consistently to deliver the right pricing level for our consumers, it has been consistently in restoring the profit pool of chocolate across the board.

And it is in the end, something that we believe is paying off because I believe those pricing actions are actually allowing us to have a much more sound and sustainable business because in the end, what matters to us. is to keep the penetration of our brand and the loyalty of our consumers into our brands. And as we look at penetration numbers, as we look at share results, clearly, for me, at least, that was the right decision to be made.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Rob Dickerson with U.S. Bancorp.

Robert Dickerson

Great. Maybe just a question on the acquisition, right? I know you said you acquired a majority stake in undercover snacks. So maybe you could just kind of walk through rationale distribution potential kind of how it fits in the portfolio and really kind of why you like the brand?

Dirk Van de Put

So it's -- basically, it's a crispy Kina snack with quite a unique currency texture. It's usually chocolate covers or prospects. The brand is called undercover because the founder wanted to give her kids who were diagnosed with celiac disease, helping regions in this guy. So it's a healthy product, but really great pace. So it's very simple. It has better-for-you ingredients, it's gluten-free, it's allergy friendly. And if you've flown United Airlines, you probably have had the snacks. There's on the place is 21 and they're in the main cabin also as a complementary snacks since 2023 or they're ibottarget, Walmart and so on.

So overall, the reason why we like it is highly incremental to our portfolio. I think it's going to capture growing demand spaces, particularly the better-for-you moments, the permissible indulgence. And we think that's a complementary consumer base. We believe that over time, our portfolio needs to evolve towards healthier snacks, and this is 1 step in that direction, basically.

I think that as consumers' age, younger consumers, they will be looking for great tasting, better-for-you snacks that support a more active lifestyle. So the opportunity is quite big. It's -- at the moment, it's a small business, growing very fast, though, still a very big distribution opportunity, which, of course, that's 1 of the areas where we can help, but we will also provide them with health in procurement. We will sharpen the positioning through our consumers' insights and our marketing expertise and we will help the team add undercover to accelerate their growth.

Diana Levy, who is the CEO, will remain the CEO, and we will integrate the business as a stand-alone unit within our North American ventures where we have other brands just like -- perfect Snacks, states or you being in chocolate. And so we think that the deal will close by early '27, of course, subject to closing conditions, regulatory approval, but overall, we're quite excited. And I think it's really building for the future here. It won't make a big difference in '27. But I think we're moving our portfolio in the right direction with this acquisitions.

Robert Dickerson

All right. Great. Interesting. And then maybe if I could as question around Kacal. I mean, clearly, right, we're in the period, West Africa can crop and we've seen the price of Ducales in spot or near-term futures increase, feel like investors were talking about that a fair amount. But at the same time, we did hear from another company this morning kind of speaking for a number of reasons to kind of how that cost should come down. at least, I guess, over time, I don't know if it's near term, but you usually provide a lot of detailed perspective that I appreciate. So maybe any perspective you can give on kind of view on total right now would be helpful.

Dirk Van de Put

Yes, sure. I mean I think it's important to understand that the market is fundamentally in a different position than the spike that we saw in '24. I think if you look at the '25, '26 cycle, we expect to be ending this year with a surplus of almost 0.5 million tonnes, so 500,000 tonnes, which is a record level of surplus. So I think if you look at the level of inventories that are there in the market right now, they're very good. I think from a '26, '27 standpoint, right now, if you look at the estimates, it's projected to be a deficit of, call it, around 190,000 tonnes, I think, driven by poor initial setting of the main crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana as well as expectations of a strong El Nino.

So even if that deficit were to eventuate, there is plenty of supply from the surplus this year to absorb that deficit. So I think we feel pretty good about the fundamentals of the market. It's very different from what it was in '24. You look at the coverage levels of the industry, they're at around 9 months. again, different position than where it was in '24. And if you look at the cocoa prices itself, they remain largely range bound as the concerns of the El Nino have been priced in.

So net-net, that's our view. And I think the fundamentals are in a much stronger position than in the previous crisis.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Christopher Carey

Yes. I'd like to ask about Latin America, please. The volumes here have flattened out and turned slightly positive past couple of quarters for the first time and a little over 2 years, which is certainly nice to see. Can you give us a bit of context on why have volumes been under pressure in Latin America? What is the evolution that has brought us to this point? And how should we think about the durability of positive volume growth in the region and the concept of pricing versus affordability here as we go into next year?

Luca Zaramella

Yes. So look, the number 1 drug in terms of volume for Latin America, it is Argentina, which we manage for cash and where we have been pricing very diligently over the quarters. And so when you strip that out and you look at the volume/mix performance of Latin America, it has actually been okay, I would say. Remember that in Brazil, we had quite a material and sizable chocolate business, which, again, we price diligently. And part of the pricing actions that we took were through RGM, and so we downsized some of the portfolio. reality is chocolate in Brazil is turning the corner in terms of volume mix. And importantly, we have been gaining share consistently in the last few quarters.

So I think there, the situation is absolutely under control. We get penetration. We have been gaining share and in general, we have been delivering good volume -- good revenue growth for the business. When you step back and you look at the business all across, excluding Argentina, you actually see that in Latin America, the volume mix for the chocolate business has been at about 4% to 5% in the last quarter. So I think it is quite a remarkable number. We are extremely pleased with the performance of coming Kandy. particularly Trident is delivering amazing numbers across the board. We have record high share, record high penetration. We are investing materially in the business, gaining distribution and delivering profit out of it.

And then clearly, all the regions, Mexico, Brazil and WAC are delivering, in general, a positive volume mix and the exception is really, as I said, the chocolate business in Brazil. As we start lapping the pricing actions and the PPA that we took last year, you're going to see accelerated volume mix coming out of Brazil, too. So a long articulated answer, but I would say Argentina is the #1 driver. And then clearly, some of the pricing and decisions that we took about chocolate in Brazil have been resulting in lower volume mix than maybe you had in mind.

Christopher Carey

That's very helpful. Just on Q4, it could imply a wide range for profit outcomes if you take the full year guidance, I'm sure your own internal expectations are not so wide. Can you give us a sense of maybe where you might be landing on the range or just a way to frame how to think about Q4, so as to get a sense of exit rate on that could be top line margins, earnings trajectory, but just conscious it's a wide range relative to Q4. So any additional color you could provide, I think, would be helpful.

Amit Banati

I think, like I said, we'll be -- we are maintaining our EPS outlook for the year. I think in the quarter, without getting into specific quarterly guidance, I think you can expect for us to continue to -- you can expect to see us continue to grow volume mix into the quarter. I think the upside that we've seen in quarter 3, we'd reinvest back into the business. I think you'll see strong gross profit and OI dollar growth in the quarter.

Operator

Our next question will come from Max Gumport BNB.

Max Andrew Gumport

Thanks very much for the question. Very strong gross profit delivery in the quarter, which helped to refund some reinvestment in advertising and brand support. I was hoping you could give us a bit more color on what drove the gross profit delivery, given it came in much better than the Street was modeling and to help to drive the EPS?

Amit Banati

Yes. I think strong volume growth. So obviously, operating leverage coming through. I think very pleased with the productivity program that our supply chain colleagues are delivering through the supply chain, in procurement, in conversion. So that clearly helped in the quarter. And of course, as we have discussed, timing of cocoa. So we saw that the benefit of a lower cocoa cost come through in the quarter as well. So those are the main drivers from a gross profit standpoint.

And I think, like I mentioned, we should continue to see that into quarter 4 as well.

Max Andrew Gumport

Great. And then on the emerging markets, can you just give us a sense for where we are in the distribution run rate. I mean you talked about adding, I think it was 130,000 outlets year-to-date in India, in Brazil, you're now at more than 1 million stores, but can you just help frame how much more upside there is in some of these emerging markets from expanding your distribution?

Luca Zaramella

I mean, look, the universe is much bigger than our current distribution. And I think what is also important for you to know is that the universe of point of sales, particularly in places like India, Southeast Asia and in other places in Latin America, the universe is growing consistently. So it is most likely a point in time type of number that we can give you. but reality is the universe is going. The other big opportunity that we have is around the number of listed items that we have on the store. I think what you have to consider at this point in time is that the runway that we have in places like China, India, Brazil, it is most likely we still have 25% numeric distribution to go.

Clearly, the 25% numeric distribution is a number that implies smaller opportunities on as you go and grab it. But it is still a sizable number to be open. There is also an opportunity that we have, particularly in places like India, which is to upgrade the current universe in the sense that you know that we have these coolers in India. And the size of the coolers depend upon the evolution of the point of sales. So between the incremental point of sales, the upgrade that we have on the current universe, the fact that we can increase the number of items that are carried by those stores. I think the opportunity is quite sizable.

I think it is not by coincidence that you see us delivering numbers that are north of 20% growth in India or for that matter in China. numbers that have, quite frankly, defeated the odds of the market, particularly if you compare us to other companies, the reason why those numbers are being delivered is because we pursue incremental distribution opportunities quite rigorously.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Tom Palmer with JPMorgan.

Thomas Palmer

I wanted to maybe ask a little bit more on the cost environment. There's obviously the call outs that we've heard today from you and certainly from others on freight and fuel pressures in North America. Maybe a little framing on what you're seeing overseas today? And then as we start to roll into 2027, I think 1 of the key drivers of earnings was kind of this more favorable cost environment, especially in write ingredients like Coco, to what extent that kind of still holds. I don't mean the earnings growth, I mean kind of the cost environment when we balance it against some of these other costs that seem to be escalating?

Dirk Van de Put

Yes. So I'll start by saying that overall, from a '27 standpoint, we remain confident on delivering strong EPS growth in '27. I think like you mentioned, we are seeing increased increases in commodities, commodities like dairy, oil, packaging. So we are seeing inflation in that, obviously, we have productivity programs, strong productivity programs that are delivering this year, and we continue to accelerate that into next year as well. But if you kind of look at the overall mix I think we have plenty of levers to drive the earnings growth into '27.

Thomas Palmer

Okay. Understood. And then on the M&A front, obviously, the smaller acquisition here today in terms of undercover snacks that has a lot of growth opportunity. What's your appetite as you kind of shift into -- maybe a more favorable environment for growth, at least what you guys are showing, maybe not everyone to take on something a little bit bigger when it comes to M&A?

Dirk Van de Put

But in general, as we stated several times, our strategy is bolt-ons, and I mean there's bolt-on and there's bolt-on. This 1 of today is on the smaller side. There are bolt-ons, which could be in the $0.5 billion, sometimes even close to $1 billion in sales. But that would be sort of the order of magnitude, I would say that we have in mind. We are not necessarily pursuing something bigger, largely because we have a very targeted strategy of trying to find the geographical areas around the world where we have gaps or the segments in our categories where we have gaps and surgically, if you want to call it like that, trying to reinforce our portfolio. That has worked well for us.

And usually, those are the opportunity that can't be the least baggage, if I can call it, because if you go bigger, you might like a part of the company really well. There might be a part that you don't like so much. And -- so far, we are planning to continue on that course.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

Alexia Howard

You sound very confident about the strong EPS growth in 2027, but little has been said about the outlook for sales growth. Obviously, this year was at least 2%, so that's below algorithm. What are the big puts and takes? And could we get back onto algorithm next year? Or is that still TBD? And then I have a follow-up.

Amit Banati

Yes, I think it's premature to talk about the '27 and we'll obviously talk that when we give guidance for the year. I would say that we are very focused on driving volume. And that's -- you've seen us reinvest back in this quarter and render you would expect us to reinvest back in quarter 4 as well to really drive volume and growth into '27.

And just to give you a little bit more color, we'd expect continued strength in the emerging markets. I think you should see increasing stabilization in Europe. continued momentum in North America and Luca talked a little bit about some of the drivers that we are seeing from a North America performance standpoint. So you should expect to see us continue to drive that.

Alexia Howard

And then could I just ask, should we expect the negative price growth driven presumably by chocolate in Europe to continue over the next couple of quarters? When do we start to lap all of that?

Luca Zaramella

So I think the straight answer is, yes. Again, I think you need to bear in mind that pricing last year ramped up throughout the quarter. And so I urge you to take a look at the combined cumulative pricing across the 2 years. And I think you have -- you will have a good sense of what type of pricing to expect for the couple of quarters to come.

Dirk Van de Put

Thank you, Alexia. And I think with this, that concludes the Q&A for today. Thank you very much for assisting to the call. Good quarter. We feel good about Q4 also. And we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

Amit Banati

Thank you.

Luca Zaramella

Thank you. Bye.

Operator

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.