마스코(MAS) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 배관 부문 마진 확대로 EPS 가이던스 상향
마스코(NYSE: MAS)는 2026년 3분기 순매출이 전년 동기 대비 3% 증가했으며, 브리스탄 매각과 불리한 환율 효과를 제외할 경우 4% 증가했다고 발표했다. 조정 영업이익은 13% 늘어난 3억 5,100만 달러를 기록했고, 가격 인상, 비용 절감, 전년 동기 대비 관세 비용 감소의 영향으로 조정 주당순이익(EPS)은 23% 증가한 1.19달러를 나타냈다.
배관 제품 매출은 4% 증가했으며, 북미 지역은 현지 통화 기준으로 8% 늘어났다. 건축 장식 매출은 보합세를 보인 가운데 전문가용 페인트는 중간 한 자릿수 성장을 기록했으나 DIY 페인트는 낮은 한 자릿수 감소세를 보였다.
마스코는 2026년 연간 조정 EPS 전망치를 기존 4.40~4.60달러에서 4.65~4.75달러로 상향 조정하고, 영업이익률 전망치도 18%~18.5%로 올려 잡았다. 경영진은 거시경제 및 지정학적 불확실성이 2026년 남은 기간과 2027년까지 이어질 가능성이 크다고 전망했다.
마스코 2026년 3분기 실적 발표: 마진 확장으로 주당순이익(EPS) 전망치 상향
마스코(NYSE: MAS)가 2026년 3분기 순매출이 전년 동기 대비 3% 증가했다고 발표했다. 조정 영업이익은 13% 늘어난 3억 5,100만 달러를 기록했다. 조정 주당순이익(EPS)은 가격 인상, 비용 절감, 전년 동기 대비 관세 비용 감소에 힘입어 23% 증가한 1.19달러를 기록했다.
핵심 요약
- 순매출은 3% 증가했으며, 브리스탄(Bristan) 매각 및 불리한 환율 효과를 제외하면 4% 증가했다.
- 조정 영업이익률은 160bp 확장된 17.9%를 기록했으며, 매출총이익률은 250bp 개선된 37.1%를 나타냈다.
- 배관 제품 매출은 4% 증가했으며, 현지 통화 기준 북미 매출은 8% 증가했다. 부문 영업이익은 25% 증가한 2억 5,600만 달러를 기록했다.
- 건축 장식 매출은 보합세를 보였다. 전문가용(PRO) 페인트는 중간 한 자릿수 성장을 기록한 반면, DIY 페인트는 낮은 한 자릿수 감소세를 나타냈다.
- 마스코는 2026년 조정 EPS 전망치를 기존 4.40~4.60달러에서 4.65~4.75달러로 상향 조정하고, 영업이익률 전망치도 18%~18.5%로 올려 잡았다.
- 회사는 해당 분기 동안 주주에게 3억 2,200만 달러를 환원했으며, 2026년 첫 9개월 동안 8억 5,000만 달러 이상의 자사주 매입을 완료했다.
주요 재무 데이터
| 지표 | 2026년 3분기 실적 | 전년 동기 대비 변동 / 설명 |
|---|---|---|
| 순매출 | 미기재 | 3% 증가; 브리스탄 매각 및 불리한 환율 제외 시 4% 증가 |
| 매출총이익률 | 37.1% | 250bp 상승 |
| 조정 영업이익 | 3억 5,100만 달러 | 13% 증가 |
| 조정 영업이익률 | 17.9% | 160bp 상승 |
| 조정 EPS | 1.19달러 | 23% 증가 |
| 배관 제품 매출 | 미기재 | 4% 증가; 매각 및 불리한 환율 제외 시 5% 증가 |
| 배관 부문 영업이익 | 2억 5,600만 달러 | 25% 증가 |
| 배관 부문 영업이익률 | 19.1% | 320bp 상승 |
| 건축 장식 매출 | 미기재 | 보합 |
| 건축 장식 영업이익 | 1억 2,600만 달러 | 대체로 보합 |
| 건축 장식 영업이익률 | 20.1% | — |
| 분기 말 유동성 | 16억 달러 | 현금 및 회전한도 대출 가능액 |
| 총부채 대비 EBITDA | 2.1배 | 분기 말 기준 |
| 주주 환원 | 3억 2,200만 달러 | 배당 및 자사주 매입 |
사업 및 영업 성과
배관 제품
배관 제품은 성장의 주요 동력이자 이익 기여 원천이었다. 매출은 4% 증가했으며, 브리스탄 매각과 불리한 환율 영향을 제외하면 5% 증가했다. 가격 인상이 부문 매출을 5% 끌어올렸고, 북미 판매량 증가가 2% 기여했다. 해외 판매량 감소와 불리한 제품 조합이 이러한 이익을 일부 상쇄했다.
북미 배관 매출은 델타(Delta) 브랜드의 주도로 현지 통화 기준 8% 증가했다. 경영진은 델타가 도매, 리테일, 이커머스 전 채널에서 성장을 기록했다고 밝혔다. 신규 부나치(Bunacchi) 욕실 컬렉션은 전시장 및 이커머스 채널에서 호응을 얻었으며, 프리미엄 및 럭셔리 브랜드인 브리조(Brizo)와 뉴포트 브라스(Newport Brass)도 견조한 실적을 이어갔다.
해외 배관 매출은 현지 통화 기준 5% 감소했으나, 브리스탄을 제외하면 1% 감소했다. 경영진은 이러한 감소가 일부 유럽 시장의 높은 기저 부담과 중국의 지속적인 약세 때문이라고 설명했다. 매각 영향을 제외한 연초 대비 해외 배관 매출은 현지 통화 기준 1% 증가했다.
배관 부문 영업이익은 25% 증가한 2억 5,600만 달러를 기록했다. 가격 인상, 비용 절감, 전년 동기 대비 관세 비용 감소 효과가 원자재 비용 상승 및 인건비 관련 비용 증가를 상회했다.
건축 장식
건축 장식 매출은 보합세를 나타냈다. 전문 시공업자를 이용하는 소비자가 늘면서 전문가용(PRO) 페인트 매출은 중간 한 자릿수 증가한 반면, DIY 페인트 매출은 시장 약세가 이어지며 낮은 한 자릿수 감소했다.
마스코는 온라인 주문, 매장 수령, 현장 배송 등 PRO 채널을 강화하기 위해 홈디포(The Home Depot)와 함께 지속적인 투자를 진행하고 있다. DIY 고객을 대상으로는 AI 기반 색상 선택 도구를 발전시키고 베어(Behr) 브랜드의 품질과 가치를 강조하는 마케팅을 펼치고 있다.
부문 영업이익은 1억 2,600만 달러로 거의 보합을 기록했다. 가격 인상과 비용 절감이 원자재 비용 상승과 판매량 감소를 대부분 상쇄했다.
현금 흐름 및 자본 배치
마스코는 16억 달러의 유동성과 2.1배의 총부채 대비 EBITDA 비율로 분기를 마감했다. 매출 대비 운전자본 비율은 18.8%였으며, 경영진은 연말까지 약 16.5%를 계속 목표로 하고 있다.
회사는 3분기에 배당과 자사주 매입을 통해 3억 2,200만 달러를 주주에게 환원했다. 2026년 동안 자사주 매입이나 인수에 약 10억 달러를 집행할 것이라는 기존 예상을 유지했다. M&A는 주로 배관, 도료, 웰빙 관련 분야의 보울트온(bolt-on) 인수 기회에 집중하고 있다.
경영진 가이던스
마스코는 2026년 연간 조정 EPS 전망치를 기존 4.40~4.60달러에서 4.65~4.75달러로 상향 조정했다. 수정된 범위는 희석 평균 주식 수 1억 9,800만 주, 실효 세율 24.5%를 전제로 한다.
| 2026년 가이던스 | 수정 전망 | 이전 전망 / 배경 |
|---|---|---|
| 마스코 매출 성장률 | 낮은 한 자릿수 | 동일 |
| 조정 영업이익률 | 18%~18.5% | 약 18% |
| 배관 매출 성장률 | 낮은 한 자릿수 상단 | 낮은 한 자릿수 |
| 배관 영업이익률 | 약 20% | 관세 환급, 가격 인상 및 비용 절감에 힘입은 마진 확장 |
| 건축 장식 매출 | 대체로 보합 | 동일 |
| 건축 장식 영업이익률 | 약 19.5% | 약 19% |
| 조정 EPS | $4.65-$4.75 | $4.40-$4.60 |
경영진은 2026년 순 관세 환급 혜택을 약 8,500만 달러로 계속 추산하고 있다. 회사는 4분기 매출이 주로 배관 부문을 중심으로 낮은 한 자릿수 비율로 성장할 것으로 예상하는 반면, 건축 장식 매출은 전년 동기 대비 대체로 보합세를 유지할 것으로 전망한다.
리스크 및 관전 포인트
- 경영진은 거시경제 및 지정학적 불확실성이 2026년 잔여 기간은 물론 2027년까지 이어질 가능성이 크다고 보고 있다.
- 3분기 동안 원자재 및 운임 비용을 반영한 두 부문의 투입 원가 인플레이션은 중간 한 자릿수를 기록했다. 경영진은 연간으로도 비슷한 수준이 유지될 것으로 예상한다.
- 구리, 석유 기반 제품 및 운송비 비용이 여전히 높은 수준이다. 마스코는 원자재 비용 시차가 배관 부문에서는 약 2분기, 건축 장식 부문에서는 1분기 지연 반영되는 경향이 있다.
- 중국 시장은 해외 배관 사업, 특히 글로벌 브랜드에 계속 역풍으로 작용하고 있다.
- DIY 페인트 수요는 기존 주택 거래량과 밀접하게 연계되어 있으며, 경영진은 주택 거래량이 저점 수준에 근접한 것으로 보고 있다.
- 성과급, 의료비 및 기타 인건비 관련 비용의 증가가 4분기 실적에 더 큰 부담으로 작용할 것으로 예상된다.
애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용
- 4분기 수요: 경영진은 사업 모멘텀에 유의미한 변화가 없다고 밝혔다. 마스코는 신축 주택 건설보다 경기 순환의 영향을 적게 받는 수리 및 리모델링 사업 비중이 여전히 높다.
- 배관 부문 수익성: 경영진은 3분기를 중대한 일회성 이익이 없었던 비교적 깨끗한 분기로 설명했다. 전년 동기 대비 비교에서는 중국 관세 정점 관련 1,500만 달러를 포함해 2025년 3분기 관세 비용 부담에 따른 기저효과를 누렸다.
- 전략적 투자: 마스코는 관세 환급금의 일부를 브랜드, 디지털 마케팅, 매출 성장 관리 및 고객 파트너십에 재투자하고 있다. 경영진은 성과가 수 분기에 걸쳐 가시화될 것이라고 밝혔다.
- 인공지능(AI): 야론 벤 다비드(Yaron Ben David) 최고기술 및 AI 책임자가 소비자 참여, 이커머스, 제조, 기획, 조달, 물류 전반에 걸친 사업을 이끌 예정이다. 경영진은 또한 기존 검색에서 거대언어모델(LLM)을 통한 제품 탐색으로의 전환을 강조했다.
- 가격 및 인플레이션: 경영진은 가격 대비 원가(price-cost) 수지가 배관 부문에서 소폭 수혜를 보고, 건축 장식 부문에서 대체로 중립적일 것으로 예상하고 있다. 가격 인상은 소싱, 생산성, 구조조정 및 기타 비용 조치 이후 활용하는 최종 수단으로 남아 있다.
- 시장 점유율: 마스코는 미국 배관 무역, 리테일, 이커머스 채널 전반에서 매출액 및 수량 점유율을 모두 확대하고 있다고 밝혔다. 경영진은 또한 한스그로에(Hansgrohe)와 악소르(Axor)가 침체된 유럽 시장 대비 우수한 성과를 내고 있다고 판단하고 있다.
- M&A 전략: 회사는 기존 사업 범주 내 보울트온 인수를 계속 선호하며, 신축 주택 건설 노출도가 높은 사업으로의 확장에는 높은 진입 장벽 기준을 유지하고 있다.
실적 발표 전화회의 전문
전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록
경영진 발표
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Masco Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. [Operator Instructions]
I will now hand the conference over to Renee Benedict, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate FP&A. Renee, please go ahead.
Renee Benedict
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Masco Corporation's 2026 Third Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Jon Nudi, President and CEO of Masco; and Rick Westenberg, Masco's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
Our third quarter earnings release and the presentation slides are available on our website under Investor Relations. Following our remarks, we will open the call for analyst questions. Please limit yourself to one question with one follow-up. If we cannot take your question now, please call me directly at (313) 792-5500.
Our statements today will include our views about our future performance, which constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. We've described these risks and uncertainties in our risk factors and other disclosures in our Form 10-K and our Form 10-Q that we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Our statements will also include non-GAAP financial metrics. Our references to operating profit and earnings per share will be as adjusted, unless otherwise noted. We reconcile these adjusted metrics to GAAP in our earnings release and presentation slides, which are available on our website under Investor Relations.
With that, I will now turn the call over to Jon.
Jonathon Nudi
Thank you, Renee. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered strong third quarter results, reflecting the disciplined execution of our teams and the resilience of our business in the face of a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Our strategy is clear: drive above-market growth by investing in our industry-leading brands, expanding our commercial capabilities and enhancing our operational excellence. This quarter, we made tangible progress across each of these priorities.
If you turn to Slide 5, I'll highlight a few examples of how we're advancing our strategy across the business. First, we rounded out our Executive Committee with the appointment of Brad Hiranaga, Masco's Chief Marketing Officer; and Yaron Ben David as Chief Technology and AI Officer. Together, they bring deep expertise, which will enhance our capabilities in two increasingly critical areas, advance our strategic priorities and further position Masco for long-term growth and success.
Second, I was honored to attend the Home Depot's 2026 supplier partnership meeting earlier this month, where Delta Faucet Company was named interconnected Partner of the Year, and BEHR Paint company was named Marketing Partner of the Year. These recognitions demonstrate the strength of our customer partnerships and our team's continued focus on delivering innovative solutions.
Lastly, Delta further reinforced its leadership position with two important brand distinctions. Based on 2025 U.S. dollar sales, Delta's #1 faucet brand in the U.S. In addition, a third-party survey ranked Delta the #1 go-to brand for professionals. This broad appeal among homeowners and trade professionals underscores the strength of the Delta brand. Collectively, these accomplishments demonstrate how we are continuing to strengthen our capabilities, deepen our customer partnerships and both on the leadership of our brands to drive long-term growth.
Now turning to our third quarter financial results. Please refer to Slide 6. Our net sales in the quarter increased 3%. In local currency, excluding the divestiture of the Bristan business, which we announced in July, sales increased 4%. Operating profit was $351 million, an increase of 13% over the prior year. Operating profit margin was 17.9%, an increase of 160 basis points, and earnings per share grew 23% during the quarter to $1.19 per share. We are very pleased with these results, which demonstrate the resilience of our business and our ability to execute in a dynamic external environment.
Turning to our segments. Plumbing Products sales increased 4% or 5% excluding the impact of our divestiture of Bristan and unfavorable currency. North American sales increased 8% in local currency led by our Delta business, which delivered strong growth in the third quarter. Recent product launches at Delta are gaining traction, including the new Bunacchi bath collection, which is performing well across both showroom and e-commerce channels.
Our premium and luxury brands also continue to perform well, supported by resilient demand at the higher end of the market. Across our Brizo Newport brass brands, we have earned 12 product design awards this year alone. And we're seeing encouraging progress from our continued digital investments, which are making it easier for customers to find, choose and install our products. Overall, this performance builds on solid year-to-date North America plumbing results with sales up 3%, reflecting the strength of our brands and innovative products and reinforcing our confidence in the long-term growth opportunity in this business.
Turning to international Plumbing. Sales decreased 5% in local currency or 1%, excluding the Bristan divestiture, reflecting lower sales against a difficult prior year comparison in some European markets as well as continued weakness in China. We remain confident in our core Hansgrohe international Plumbing business. And the strength of the brand, innovative products and geographic market opportunities, we feel good about the solid year-to-date performance with sales up 1% in local currency and excluding the divestiture. Operating profit for the Plumbing Products segment grew 25% to $256 million and operating margin expense at 320 basis points to 19.1%.
Turning to our Decorative Architectural segment. Sales were flat compared to the prior year. PRO paint delivered another quarter of strong mid-single-digit growth with more consumers turning to professionals for the painting projects, we believe Behr is well positioned to capture this opportunity through its combination of innovative, high-quality products, value and exceptional service. Our investments alongside the Home Depot continue to gain traction, and we are retaining existing PRO customers while attracting new professional painters to the Behr brand.
DIY paint sales decreased low single digits, largely in line with our expectations, given the continued softness in the market. Despite the near-term environment, we remain focused on strengthening the consumer experience and investing to make color selection easier and more engaging. This includes continuing to advance our AI-powered color selection tool along with recently launching a new marketing campaign, highlighting Behr paint as having the best quality at the best price. Together, these investments are further differentiating Behr and position the business to capitalize when market conditions improve. Operating profit for this segment was roughly flat compared to the prior year of $126 million, and operating margin was 20.1%.
Turning to capital allocation. Our free cash flow and balance sheet remains strong, allowing us to return $322 million to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share repurchases. As we look ahead, we expect uncertainty in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment to continue through the balance of the year and likely into 2027. Against this backdrop, we remain focused on executing our strategy and driving above-market growth. We'll also continue to implement the restructuring actions we previously discussed to better align our cost structure.
Based on our strong execution and operational performance year-to-date, we are raising our 2026 earnings per share guidance to $4.65 to $4.75 from a previous range of $4.40 to $4.60.
While we continue to expect sales to increase low single digits in 2026, our operating profit margin outlook has improved. We now expect operating profit margin to be in the range of 18% to 18.5% compared to our prior guidance of approximately 18%.
While the near-term environment remains uncertain, we are encouraged by the strength and resilience of our business and our ability to continue to execute. Our confidence extends beyond this quarter. The long-term fundamentals supporting repair and remodel activity remain compelling, including strong home equity levels and aging housing stock to pent-up demand for home improvement projects. And importantly, we are not waiting for the market to improve. We are investing in our industry-leading brands, innovative products, strengthening our customer partnerships and driving greater efficiency across the organization. Combined with our strong cash generation, these actions give us confidence in our ability to outperform in our markets and to create long-term shareholder value.
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Rick to go over our third quarter results and 2026 outlook in more detail. Rick?
Richard Westenberg
Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining. As Renee mentioned, my comments today will focus on adjusted performance excluding the impact of rationalization charges and other onetime items. Turning to Slide 8. Sales increased 3% or 4%, excluding the impact of our divestiture of Bristan in July and unfavorable currency. In local currency, North American sales increased 5%, international sales decreased 5% or decreased 1%, excluding the divestiture impact. Gross margin in the quarter improved 250 basis points to 37.1%. SG&A was 19.2% of sales, primarily reflecting higher employee-related costs, inclusive of inventive compensation.
Operating profit grew 13% to $351 million in the quarter, and our margin expanded 160 basis points to 17.9%. The increase in operating profit was driven by pricing actions, cost savings initiatives and lower year-over-year tariff costs, partially offset by higher commodity and employee-related costs. Our EPS grew 23% to $1.19 per share in the quarter.
Turning to Slide 9. Plumbing sales in the third quarter increased 4% or 5%, excluding the impacts of our divestiture and unfavorable currency. This strong performance was driven by pricing, which increased sales by 5% and higher North American volume, which contributed 2% to growth. This was partially offset by lower international volume and unfavorable mix.
In local currency, North American Plumbing sales increased 8%. This performance was led by strong growth at Delta. While year-over-year performance benefited from an easier comparison due to a softer Q3 2025, Delta continued to execute exceptionally well, delivering growth across the wholesale, retail and e-commerce channels. In local currency, international plumbing sales in the quarter decreased 5% or 1%, excluding the divestiture impact. This primarily reflected lower sales at Hansgrohe due to a difficult prior year comparison in some European markets as well as continued softness in China.
Segment operating profit in the third quarter increased 25% to $256 million, and operating margin expanded 320 basis points to 19.1%. The strong profit growth reflected the benefits of pricing, cost savings initiatives and lower year-over-year tariff costs, partially offset by higher commodity and employee-related costs.
Turning to Slide 10. Decorative Architectural sales were flat compared to the prior year. Our strong PRO paint performance continued with sales increasing mid-single digits in the quarter. DIY paint sales decreased low single digits, largely in line with our expectations, given the ongoing softness in the DIY paint market. Overall, paint sales continue to track largely in line with our expectations. For the full year, we continue to anticipate PRO paint sales to increase mid-single digits and for DIY paint sales to decrease mid-single digits.
Operating profit in the third quarter was $126 million operating margin was 20.1%. Profit was largely in line with the prior year as the impacts of higher commodity costs and lower volume were mostly offset by pricing and cost savings initiatives.
Turning to Slide 11. Our balance sheet remains strong with gross debt-to-EBITDA at 2.1x at quarter end. We ended the quarter with $1.6 billion of liquidity, including cash and availability under our revolving credit facility. Working capital was 18.8% of sales at quarter end. We continue to anticipate working capital as a percent of sales will be approximately 16.5% at the end of the year.
Our strong cash performance enabled us to return $322 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the third quarter. We also continue to expect to deploy approximately $1 billion towards share repurchases or acquisitions in 2026 and have executed over $850 million in share repurchases year-to-date through the third quarter.
Now let's turn to Slide 12 and review our full year outlook. Our underlying performance year-to-date has been stronger than our initial expectations. In addition, we continue to estimate a net tariff refund benefit of approximately $85 million for the year. Reflecting the stronger operating performance, we are updating our full year guidance as follows. For Masco overall, we continue to expect 2026 sales to increase low single digits, and now expect an operating margin between 18% to 18.5% compared with our prior expectation of approximately 18%.
Turning to our segments. In Plumbing, we continue to expect full year sales to increase low single digits, but now expect sales growth towards the higher end of that range and operating margin to expand to approximately 20%. Margin expansion is being driven by the net tariff refund benefit, pricing discipline, operational efficiencies and continued cost savings initiatives.
In our Decorative Architectural segment, we continue to expect 2026 sales to be roughly flat with the prior year and now expect operating margin to be approximately 19.5%, up from our prior expectation of approximately 19%, supported by our continued focus on cost savings initiatives.
Finally, as Jon mentioned earlier, we are increasing our 2026 EPS guidance to be in the range of $4.65 to $4.75 per share, up from our previous range of $4.40 to $4.60 per share. Our updated EPS guidance assumes a 198 million average diluted share count for the year compared with our previous assumption of 200 million shares and an effective tax rate of 24.5%. Additional financial assumptions for 2026 can be found on Slide 15 of our earnings deck.
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Jon for some closing comments before we open up the line for questions. Jon?
Jonathon Nudi
Thanks, Rick. Before we open up the line for questions, I'd like to recognize the recent passing our Chairman Emeritus; son of Masco's Founder, Richard Richard played an extraordinary role in shaping Masco for over 5 decades, helping build our company into a global leader while establishing values, which remain deeply embedded in our culture today. On behalf of our Board of Directors and all Masco employees, we extend our sincere condolences to Richard's family, friends and all who are fortunate to know him, and we honor his lasting legacy and contributions to Masco.
Lastly, I want to thank our nearly 18,000 employees around the world. Our results this quarter reflect their hard work, focus and commitment to our customers and consumers. I'm incredibly proud of what our team has accomplished and how they continue to deliver. We have strong brands, great people and a clear strategy. We are making progress, and we have momentum. I am confident in our ability to build on that momentum, deliver above-market growth and create long-term value for our shareholders.
With that, I'd like to open up the call for questions. Operator?
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays.
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Matthew Bouley
So I wanted to ask around the targeted strategic investments from last quarter and if you made any decisions around how you're planning to spend that and if you've seen actually any early benefits from some of those investments here in Q3? Or if that's still something we should kind of look forward to any kind of timing around that?
Richard Westenberg
Matt, it's Rick. Yes, as we discussed in our Q2 earnings call, unlike many of our peers, as indicated, we plan to invest a portion of our tariff refunds in terms of investments to really accelerate and enhance our growth initiatives. Importantly, these investments are consistent with the existing investments that we're making and they're really aligned around our strategy that we outlined in our recent Investor Day, really focused on investing in our brands, developing capabilities like digital marketing and revenue growth management and partnering with our customers to drive long-term growth.
We're not going to get into specific details in terms of the investment themselves. It's really as a general matter. But suffice it to say, we've got a very disciplined process in terms of how we evaluate the investment. And we look at financial and strategic objectives and monitor those. In terms of our investments, they'll play out over time. So to answer your question, it's still early days. We are deploying, but it's going to be over the course of a number of quarters and really align with our overall intent -- is the overall approach to invest in the long-term growth of Masco.
Matthew Bouley
Got it. Okay. Secondly, thinking about kind of the fourth quarter revenue outlook, I think you're guiding to a little bit of deceleration. I know you don't quantify monthly trends, but obviously, as interest rates move higher and consumer confidence is not helping. Have you kind of seen any changes in demand, perhaps by channel, maybe your new construction business in plumbing. Anything kind of changing on the leading edge? And sort of how is that informing your fourth quarter revenue outlook?
Jonathon Nudi
Matt, this is Jon. I guess I would tell you we haven't seen a significant change in momentum across our businesses as we look to Q4, we still expect to grow sales low single digits as we look out. As you know, we play primarily in repair remodel, and we believe that repair and remodel is less cyclical, less impacted by short-term interest rate moves. So we feel good about where we're playing.
We haven't seen it change in our momentum. And as you know, we under-index when it comes to new home construction, and that's a strategy. And again, we like where we play today in our current categories and in repair and remodel.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.
Ketan Mamtora
Maybe just following up on Matt's question. When I think about sort of the sequential drop in EPS from Q3 to Q4, obviously, there is the seasonal component, but it seems like the drop is kind of higher than what we've seen historically. Can you just talk about the puts and takes as you think about going from Q3, Q4?
Richard Westenberg
Yes. Ketan, it's Rick. So Q3, we feel really good about our performance and our execution in Q3 and year-to-date, and that's what you gave us confidence to raise our guidance on the call this morning. In terms of sequentially, as you articulated, Q4 is generally a weaker quarter during the course of the year. It's really due to seasonality. So it's not surprising for us to have a reduction on a sequential basis.
What I would say is that in Q4, we do still expect to see revenue growth. So consistent with our guidance of low single digits. We would expect to see that in Q4, so on a year-over-year basis, primarily in plumbing. Our expectations for decorative are consistent with our -- roughly our year-to-date performance, which is roughly flat on a year-over-year basis on a top line perspective.
What I would say is what we're seeing in there's continued benefits of our growth and our cost savings initiatives. But we're also seeing elevated inflation from input costs. And that's as we've all seen in the industry accelerating in terms of copper prices as well as oil-based products, et cetera, in freight. I mean we've got a bit higher cost as it pertaining to employee-related costs and incentive comp medical, which had us a little bit more significantly in Q4. But overall, we're pretty constructive on Q4 as well as the year overall.
Ketan Mamtora
Got it. That's helpful. And then, Rick, can you just remind us in terms of what are you expecting in terms of input cost inflation as we are exiting in Q4 here because I know there is some lag here as we think about copper and other input costs?
Richard Westenberg
Yes. So in terms of our inflationary expectations, in Q3, we experienced mid-single-digit inflation from input costs in both of our segments, and we expect that for the year in its totality, so mid-single-digit inflation in plumbing and similarly with regards to Decorative Architectural
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Reid with Wells Fargo.
Richard Reid
I wanted to drill down on the third quarter plumbing EBIT. I realize you gave a fairly helpful bridge there. It sounds like pricing, cost saves, lower year-over-year tariffs were big drivers. Just making sure though there wasn't anything out kind of one-off in there. There weren't any potential, let's say, lingering tariff benefits that might have driven that. And maybe just give us a sense as to how that EBIT margin in plumbing contracted with your internal expectations heading into the quarter?
Richard Westenberg
Sure. Sam, it's Rick. As pertains to Q3, obviously, very pleased with the performance. As you indicated, we articulated really the key components of the year-over-year performance, really driven by pricing, volume and mix is largely a wash. And I would say that the other benefits that we articulated are the lower tariff cost year-over-year. So as you may recall, in Q3 of last year, was really the peak of our tariff cost, and that was accentuated by the fact that we were at the peak. China tariffs at 145%, which added $15 million of cost in Q3 of 2025. So we're lapping a favorable comp in that regard.
I think the other thing to note, and we alluded to it, particularly on our Q2 call that there was a modest pull forward of volume from Q3 2025 to Q2 2025, which created the challenging comp that we faced in Q2, but slightly easier comp in Q3. All that said, I would say, in terms of Q3 this year, relatively clean quarter in terms of our performance, no real one-off in this particular quarter, just underlying strength on our both our domestic and international business. So we feel really good with the performance and the performance year-over-year.
Jonathon Nudi
Sam, this is Jon. The only thing I might add is that our increase in guidance that we communicated this morning is entirely driven by operational performance. Again, it's not impacted by tariffs or anything like that. So your question about expectations, we are performing stronger, particularly from an EPS and operating margin standpoint, stronger than what we expected as we came into the year.
Richard Reid
That's really helpful, guys. And maybe just to piggyback on the prior quarter -- or the prior question, which was there's also the Q4 seasonal impacts you talked to, input cost inflation, higher employee incentive costs. I realize we're not talking 2027 quite yet, but would there be an expectation that those impacts the input costs and the higher employee costs, would those potentially spill over into Q1, perhaps sequentially worse Q1 versus Q4? Just trying to get a rough sense as to early 2027 modeling.
Richard Westenberg
Sure. Sam, it's Rick. So as you indicated, we're not going to really delve into 2027 at this point. We'll do so in our Q4 earnings call next year. But what I would say is that we continue to see inflationary dynamics as it pertains to input costs. And as I articulated earlier part of the Q&A, we're expecting mid-single digits for the year. And so that is something that we would certainly expect to see continue. From an employee-related incentive comp, we have higher costs this year just due to the strong performance, underlying performance as well as the tariff refund. And so we would expect some normalization of that next year, but we do continue to kind of invest in our people resources as well.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with Melius.
Unknown Analyst
I wanted to start off with the increase in sales growth outlook or maybe the slight increase for plumbing for the year, high end of the low single-digit range versus low single digits before. And maybe just speak to what's driving that? If you feel that maybe the market itself is more resilient? Or if you have any specific company initiatives that are maybe driving some gains in certain channels, would love to dial that in a little bit more.
Jonathon Nudi
Michael, this is Jon. We feel really good about the momentum in plumbing. As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, for North America were up 3% year-to-date. International were up 1%. So good momentum in tough markets. And I would take you back to our strategy, which is really growing above market by focusing on a consumer-driven strategy. We're building our brands. We've got leading brands really across the world. When you look at the U.S. Delta, as we mentioned, is the #1 faucet brand the U.S., which is fantastic.
In addition with Delta, we got upper premium luxury with Brizo and Newport are performing very, very strongly. And then globally, we -- a core part of our global business is homes growing corn, we like how we're performing there. So we -- obviously, it's a challenging market. As we mentioned, we are very focused on R&R as opposed to new home construction. We think that works for us now. I can tell you that we're growing share both from a dollar standpoint and unit share standpoint across all three channels in the U.S., whether that be trade, whether that be commerce or retail. So we feel like we have a really good momentum by focusing on our brands, innovating and really playing our game, and we recognize is tough out there, but really like how we're performing.
Unknown Analyst
Great. And secondly, I'd love to dial in a little bit as well into the hire of Yaron Ben David, the CTO and AI Officer. And trying to get a sense for where you expect them to contribute if it's going to be more internal efficiencies and processes or external initiatives in terms of perhaps e-commerce? And how you see that contributing to the overall enterprise either through perhaps savings, let's say, on the general corporate side or maybe an acceleration in some external growth initiatives or both?
Jonathon Nudi
Yes. Yes. So Mike, this is Jon. Clearly, digital touches every part of our business today. And I can tell you, I think we're starting with a good place when it comes to e-commerce. We're leading in our categories with a strong share positions. But we recognize the world is changing and particularly with AI, the digital space is advancing at a rapid rate. So we did get to the outside of Yaron expertise when it comes to digital and AI, and he'll be working with our teams, creating a center of excellence that will certainly be focused on the consumer.
The reality is the way consumers interact with brands is changing dramatically, moving from traditional search SEO to GTO, which is really leveraging LLMs to learn more about products and ultimately purchasing through LLMs as well. So we need to make sure we keep advancing. So we're bringing Yaron to help focus on the consumer side. At the same time, he's got a lot of experience optimizing manufacturing and planning efficiency, thinking about procurement and logistics really, it's across our entire business well be focused. Obviously, you can't do it all at once, so he's relatively early days. He's assessing where we are and working to put plans in place to make sure that we keep advantage. So I'm very, very excited to have Yaron join us. and also excited about the starting point, which we feel is really industry leading at this point.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi.
Anthony Pettinari
I was wondering if you could give any further color on Watkins and I guess what you're seeing with spas and Sonos and just maybe higher income consumers. I think you pointed to strength in 2Q. Just wondering how that was trending in the back half?
Jonathon Nudi
Anthony, this is Jon. We feel really good about the underlying business in our wellness business, both with spas and Very much part of a secular wellness trend that we believe is really in the early innings. And we've got shared leadership when it comes to spas across North America, we continue to see good momentum there. Sona is one that we're very excited about. It's a relatively small household penetration, about 1% in the U.S. Growing very quickly. I think in pop culture, you're hearing more and more about Sona's and all the health benefits associated with them. So we feel good about that business. And when you look at the economy, it's certainly a case shaped economy, so the consumers at the top end continue to spend and continue to spend in wellness, which is benefiting our Watkins business.
Anthony Pettinari
Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess following up on plumbing, international slowed. It seems like China was tougher. You were asked earlier about sort of exit rate and 4Q assumptions. Can you just talk about sort of how we should think about international in 4Q and maybe what the comp looks like?
Jonathon Nudi
Yes. So -- this is Jon. So as I mentioned, year-to-date, we're up 1%. Obviously, you've got some fluctuations quarter-to-quarter. We had a strong quarter in international Plumbing last quarter. We feel good about our underlying business. So I'll tell you, we're share leaders across many big markets in Europe, and we continue to like how we're performing there. China is a headwind. Obviously, the market is more challenged, particularly for global brands. So that will remain a headwind as we move forward. So I would expect to see consistent performance to what we've seen year-to-date as we move through Q4. And obviously, as we move into the coming year, our goal is to accelerate that business. We're truly excited about the opportunities for Hansgrohe and Axor. While we have scale in several big markets, we've got many parts of the world that we've got a big opportunity in. And if you look at digital and how that can really help us interact with consumers and build brands around the globe, we think there's a lot more we can do with both Hansgrohe and Axor, excited about the opportunity.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.
Susan Maklari
My first question is thinking about just the price cost, you had guided last quarter to being price cost positive in both of the segments, just given the path for price relative to inflation. Is that something that we should still expect this year? And any thoughts on pricing and price elasticity as you look out to '27?
Richard Westenberg
Sure. Sue, it's Rick. So with regards to our price/cost relationship, we do anticipate price/cost to be modestly positive in our Plumbing segment. It is from a standpoint from decorative architecture more flat. So as you know, we've got an arrangement with our large customer, Home Depot from a price cost neutrality standpoint. And so that's something that we are adhering to. So from an overall standpoint, the price cost positivity is more on the plumbing side of the business. And it's something that we're focused on going forward.
As we said earlier, we're not going to get into 2027 at this point. We do see continued inflation in the environment, particularly on the commodity cost. We're copper and where oil is trading including freight costs. And so it's something that we continue to take a look at. It's certainly something that we've been able to demonstrate over time that we're able to manage. And it's not just about pricing, of course, it's also about driving efficiencies, productivity, cost reduction, sourcing footprint changes as well to manage our tariff and commodity exposure as well. And so we're pulling all levers to try to moderate. And we'll continue to do that going forward.
Jonathon Nudi
Yes. Sue, this is Jon. Building on what Rick just mentioned pricing is really the last lever we pull, what I would say is we believe that we have a capability at Masco that is allowing us to win and market by having precision pricing, really understanding it less to see. Really understanding our different products and how they interact category. So increasingly, we'll continue. We're building out the capabilities. It's becoming much more digital, much more automated. And certainly, we will pull that lever only if we have to. But when we do, we have very good confidence that we can do it in the way that will limit the elasticity across our business.
Susan Maklari
Okay. That's encouraging. And then turning to the cash flow side of the business. You're making progress on the working capital. You reiterated the guide to get that to 16.5% of sales by year-end. Can you just talk a bit about your priorities for capital allocation? Have you seen any change in the M&A pipeline given the macro this quarter? And just any thoughts there on how we should think about the cash and where that may go?
Richard Westenberg
Yes. Sue, it's Rick. So we're pleased with the cash generation of the business. It continues to be a hallmark of Masco in terms of our cash flow conversion at 90% to 100% of our net income. And so we're continuing to see that. From a working capital perspective, really consistent with prior year in terms of where we're at from a seasonality standpoint this year. And as you indicated, we're guiding towards the 16.5% of net sales at year-end.
As it pertains to our capital allocation framework, there's absolutely no change in that framework in terms of, number one, investing in the business. Number two, an investment-grade credit rating, and we'll continue to manage our leverage accordingly. Third is a relevant dividend, a 30% payout ratio. And then all available cash beyond that is available for share buybacks or M&A. In terms of our M&A pipeline, we continue to cultivate that pipeline. At the end of the day, our strategy is unchanged in that context as well. We're looking at primarily bolt-on acquisition opportunities, really in our fashion plumbing coatings and well necessary areas. And so really no change in terms of our prospect and we're pleased with how our capital allocation framework has served us and we've been able to leverage that to return capital to shareholders in a pretty assertive way.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Trevor Allinson with Wolf Research.
Trevor Allinson
Your dec arc guidance implies that you're going to return to growth there in the fourth quarter, I think the first time since 2022. Given the outperformance that you've seen with your Pro, your DIY and your core businesses are much more similar in size to what they've been historically. So -- with that in mind and an expectation that you continue to outperform PRO. Is this something -- a business dearth that you think can get back to growth in 2027 as you think about PRO continue to take share?
Jonathon Nudi
Trevor, it's Jon. As you mentioned, flat is in a way a win for it's been a more challenged category over the last few years. I can tell you, we're not satisfied with flat though as we move forward. And we continue to feel really good about our PRO paint business where we've grown mid-single digits over a consistent period of time, working very closely with our retail partner at the Home Depot to really remove friction from the experience for PROs. We believe we have the best quality and the best price. We want to continue to communicate that. We've got a new marketing campaign really centered on just that. We're really working to make the experience easier with order online, pick up the store, order online, have it delivered to the job site. So again, we believe there's a lot more room to run. PRO paint is the largest single segment we compete in at Masco, and we have a relatively small share, so we think that continues to be an opportunity.
DIY has certainly been challenged and is highly correlated with existing home turnover, which is bouncing along at trough levels. That being said, we're taking action. We've invested in which is an industry-leading AI-powered color tool. And we know that choosing the Keller is the number one barrier for a consumer to do a paint job. So we're really excited about that. We're also working with the Home Depot to make sure the in-store experience is the best it can be and really focusing again communicating that we have the best quality and the best value in the category. So certainly not taking victory laps in Decorative Architectural, but the team is doing a really nice job and really stabilizing the business overall with good wins in PRO. And again, really door that we can to really stabilize the DIY business.
Trevor Allinson
And then second question is on Europe. It seems to be holding up pretty well, excluding the divestiture. You guys talked about taking share in North America. I'm curious if you believe that, that commentary extends to Europe, how you're performing in Europe relative to the market is some outperformance in Europe as well, helping to support your performance versus overall trends in Europe?
Jonathon Nudi
Trevor, absolutely. So as I mentioned, we're up 1% in our international plumbing business for year-to-date. As we look at the markets, particularly in Europe, we think they're a little bit worse off than what the U.S. is. We think they're down low single digits. So again, we believe that we are outperforming the markets and many of the same capabilities and strategy that we're deploying in North America, we're just deploying on our Hansgrohe and Axor businesses as well. So I believe that we are gaining share. It's a little bit harder to track share across many, many markets across Europe and Asia, but feel really good about the trajectory of the business.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS.
John Lovallo
Maybe sort of dovetailing off that last question. I mean you guys have gained share in plumbing this year, I mean due in part to some competitive factors that could change. You just speak to your confidence in what you're doing to drive continued share gains into 2027, including on the e-commerce side?
Jonathon Nudi
Yes. John, this is Jon. So I can tell you we do have fierce competitors. We have many competitors plumbing really across North America and the world. We are very, very focused on playing our game, and we think it's a winning game. So as I mentioned, it starts with our industry-leading brands. We continue to build on, increasing in a modern way, which is very much digital and being very clear for what our brands stand for and how they deliver for consumers.
I would say innovation is a big part of our success as well. If you look at the vitality rate in our Plumbing business is close to 30%. So again, a percentage of products introduced over the last 3 years. We've had some real winners in terms of new products as well. I would tell you, capabilities as we build our capabilities, particularly in the digital space, they're going to benefit us from an e-commerce standpoint and how we show up again with consumers as they really go through their journey when they're starting to look for buying a new or buy a new shower. And then finally, one of the things that hasn't changed is really our operational effectiveness and efficiency, the Masco operating system has served us well for a long period of time. And I can tell you, I'm really pleased with how we're operating in a challenging environment around the world. So -- look, competitors will ebb and flow. What we can focus on is our business and our game, and we feel like we're on it at this point.
John Lovallo
Okay. Understood. And then on the M&A front, specifically, I know you guys talked about sticking close to the core. Curious though, if you have interest in factory-applied wood coatings business, whether that's cabinet stores, et cetera. It seems like it could expand the Decor TAM, perhaps not conflict with the HD relationship and maybe provide a little bit of inroads into the new construction market.
Jonathon Nudi
John, this is Jon. I guess we've been pretty consistent that we like the categories that we play in today. They are amongst the fastest-growing and highest-margin categories. We like the strategy of being tied more to R&R as opposed to new home construction. New home construction is important for us. It's a business that we take seriously, but at the same time, R&R is the bulk of our business. So we would have a very high bar, adding an additional leg or really going outside of our core categories. I think bolt-ons is what we're focused on. But again, we tend to look at a lot of things that come across our desk just to make sure that we're looking at everything in the universe. But I think we'll stay clear to what we've been guiding, which is bolt-on acquisitions will be the focus moving forward.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.
Stephen Kim
First question in Deck Arc. I think last quarter, you had indicated that you thought that the back half of the year would among other things, like employee costs and commodity headwinds and stuff. You also mentioned you expected to have some additional investments that might weigh on the margins in the back half. And obviously, you beat our expectations. And I'm curious, was there any benefit this quarter from maybe a reduced level of planned investments relative to what you had previously expected?
Richard Westenberg
Stephen, it's Rick. So your collection is correct. We did -- and we do expect increased investments in the back half of this year in Decorative Architecture. We've got the employee-related costs as cited. There's also investments in terms of in-store displays, et cetera. Those are unchanged. What I would say is what we've realized in terms of our margin expectation is improvement in cost reduction efforts, so restructuring and other cost reduction efforts that are benefiting our P&L to an increased impact than we had initially anticipated, and that's why we brought up our margin guidance from 19% to 19.5%. But our investments are intact.
Stephen Kim
Great. That's the best answer that we could have had. So that's good. Broader question than I have, you talked about specifically with DIY paint, you brought up the historic correlation with AHS, our existing home sales. And I was wondering if we could touch on that, maybe particularly in paint, but also could apply to the Plumbing business as well. I'm curious if you could talk about what that historic correlation is with existing home turnover versus people doing a discretionary remodeling job in the home that they are going to continue to live in? I was wondering if you could sort of talk about like how much of the business or the demand is related to people actually moving?
And then obviously, EHS is very depressed. So to the degree that it is impacted by that, obviously, that's a negative that's weighing on you. And yet, I would think that dilapidation happens regardless of turnover, right? So you have a housing stock that's sitting out there. And there is the pit that also drives the need for remodeling, particularly paint. And so I'm curious, in this period where you've had very diminished EHS, are you actually seeing evidence that, let's say, paint usage per home -- per existing home sale is rising or not?
Jonathon Nudi
Yes. Stephen, this is Jon. I'll take a crack at this. Maybe more broadly, as you look at other categories beyond paint, we see some different dynamics. When you look at our plumbing business, break/fix is a fairly significant part of our business. So again, something breaks a faucet or a shower and it's replaced. Paint isn't quite that way, although, again, what you described does happen where over time, people recognize they need to put a fresh coat of paint on. As we look at what impacts DIY paint by far, the item that correlates the highest existing home turnover.
And it makes a lot of sense, and it's pretty simple. If you think about if you're selling your house, you typically paint it. And then if you buy a house, in many cases, you paint it again because you don't like the colors and you want to make it your own. So -- we definitely see when we get back to more historical existing home turnover, we should see an inflection in the market. Even then, we need to make sure that we keep, again, making it easy for consumers to shop the category. We need to make sure that we continue to understand that consumers to understand that bears the best quality and the best value in the market. So there's a lot of things within our control. I would say I think DIY is going to remain a bit more challenged until we see existing sales pickup here.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Phil Ng with Jefferies.
Margaret Grady
This is Maggie on for Phil. I wanted to ask first about the lag on raws flowing through to your P&L? I understand you're not giving '27 guidance at this point. But just given that lag, and where commodities and inputs are trending now, we're starting to get a better idea of how that inflation equation is going to look at least in early '27. So -- why don't you get your thoughts on how that's informing your approach to pricing next year and any of the other mitigating factors that you talk about like cost savings and those actions?
Richard Westenberg
Sure. Maggie, it's Rick. So as we've described before, that really our lag, as you articulated, for plumbing is really a 2-quarter lag roughly speaking, commodity prices that you're seeing in the market this quarter, we would expect to see in a couple of quarters' time. On decorative, it's a little bit more accelerated. It's more of a one quarter lag. So the commodity costs that you're seeing in this quarter more of a next quarter type of dynamic. And so that's generally the rule that we leverage.
And so it does provide a bit of a time window for us to be able to visually see -- visibly see commodity costs in the market and allow us to react accordingly. And as mentioned earlier, there was a number of levers that we look at. We look at our sourcing footprint in terms of optimizing that cost reduction and has required pricing. And so that's something that will factor into our equation, not just next year, but as an ongoing basis in terms of mitigating -- what continues to be an inflationary environment.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist.
Keith Hughes
Questions on Plumbing. If you could talk about how much price and volume contributed particularly to the pretty strong domestic number here.
Richard Westenberg
Sure. Keith, I think as -- we indicated in our prepared remarks that pricing for plumbing was a 5% contributor on a year-over-year basis. And then volume was up in North America, down in international, but basically volume mix was a wash, and that's all ex the divestiture.
Keith Hughes
Okay. That's from a total Plumbing. So if we look domestically, it was price any different domestically, I guess, really my question.
Richard Westenberg
Yes. Domestically, we're not going to get in terms of details. I mean what we did indicate is that our North American plumbing tells were up 8%. So you can imagine our performance is a bit stronger in that context, but we don't provide a specific bridge on a country-by-country basis.
Keith Hughes
Okay. So one other question on that, particularly domestically, if you could talk about the channels, was there any one channel that was particularly better than that 8% number?
Richard Westenberg
Yes. So what we'll say, Keith, to that is we were up really across all three channels, so trade, retail and e-commerce. We continue to perform really well in terms of our e-commerce. We continue to be a leader in that context. But it was encouraging to see that we were performed up on a net sales perspective, really across all three channels. So it was a very balanced performance for the quarter and quite frankly, year-to-date.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.
Michael Dahl
Just a couple of quick ones, a follow-up on the fourth quarter guide. I think you mentioned you still expect price cost positive and incoming neutral in deck arc. In total, I know there's a range in there, but the midpoint of the implied guide would suggest margins down year-on-year. And so I'm just trying to get a better sense of your performance to date has clearly been much better than that. So is that really have the price cost differential narrowing? Is the employee cost help us maybe get into a little more detail on why you see that inflection in margins than Nate?
Richard Westenberg
Yes. Sure, Mike. Yes. We don't -- I know you're implying a lot in terms of our Q4. So we don't get into specific quarterly guidance. But that said, you're directionally right. I would say that -- in terms of our -- as I mentioned on an earlier question or response to an earlier question, in terms of top line performance, we do expect continued low single-digit sales improvement in plumbing and roughly flat in Decorative Architecture kind of consistent with what we've seen year-to-date.
In terms of the margin question, we're basically expecting an operating profit and margin to be roughly in line on a year-over-year basis. And as articulated earlier, that's the trade-off between slightly increased sales on a year-over-year basis and cost reduction efforts. That's being offset by higher commodity costs that are mid-single digits and growing as we finish out the year. a well as higher employee-related costs, incentive compensation and medical costs, which are notably higher as we finish out the year. So ultimately roughly flat, but we feel really good, quite frankly, in terms of the resilience of the business given the macroeconomic backdrop and our performance in terms of where we're going to end up for the year and our momentum in the business going forward.
Michael Dahl
Okay. That's helpful, Rick. And then just -- sorry for another follow- on the kind of price cost dynamic. But this year, you obviously had a lot of things that you executed well against both on the pricing side and your internal initiatives while still taking share. I think another as alluded to kind of competitive dynamics, but when you survey kind of the landscape for next year, there has been a lot of price that's been put into the market. I think you guys kind of led the pricing this year.
And so I'm just wondering, just kind of if you had to rank order in the near term, what the most likely levers would be to offset inflation? Is it still going to be kind of the same where you're kind of -- where next year, you might be a little less aggressive on price and try to focus on the operational and cost -- some of the other cost down efforts? Or how would you think about kind of all things considered when you're balancing what you're seeing competitively, what you're seeing in terms of kind of channel response or customer discussions and how you approach that dynamic next year?
Jonathon Nudi
Yes. Mike, this is Jon. So we clearly won't get into a whole lot of detail about 2027. We're not announcing anything today, obviously, related to pricing. As I mentioned earlier, pricing is really the last lever that we pull. It really starts with making sure that we optimize our footprint to make sure that we're procuring and producing as efficiently and effectively as possible.
We talked a little bit about self-help. We've taken some initiatives from a restructuring standpoint that have been more aggressive than what we've done historically at Masco that had a benefit this year. We'll continue to have a benefit in the coming year as well and really leveraging the Masco operating system to drive cost out.
And then finally, I think we've proven over time that we can't pull the price lever if needed, and do it in a way that allows us to realize the price that we need without impacting the market to a large degree from an elasticity standpoint. And I can tell you our capabilities in that space continue to grow. It's a really important area for us to continue to invest in to make sure that we can do it with as much decision as possible. So maybe I'll stop there. And obviously, as we get into 2027, we can talk more about 2027 and our thoughts around price.
Operator
Our last question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten with Vertical Research Partners.
Adam Baumgarten
Just on the topic of freight, maybe if you could run through what you're seeing -- there and perhaps how much that represents as a percentage of total COGS?
Richard Westenberg
Adam, it's Rick. So Yes. Freight, like we're seeing across the industry and the market, freight costs are elevated, both inbound and outbound and by fuel costs. We haven't articulated the proportion of COGS that represents for Masco. It's not a huge driver, but it is something that we're keeping a close eye on, and something that we factor in, in terms of mitigation activities. So what I mean by that is when we refer to mid-single digit input cost inflation that's inclusive of both the raw materials as well as freight costs and transportation costs. And so we look at that holistically and look to pull the levers that Jon articulated in terms of mitigation.
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Renee Benedict for closing remarks.
Renee Benedict
We'd like to thank you all for joining us on the call this morning and for your interest in Masco. That concludes today's call. Have a great day.
Operator
Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
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