킨세일 캐피털(KNSL) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 보험료 감소에도 마진 유지

핵심 요약

• 킨세일 캐피털 그룹(KNSL)은 희석 조정 영업 주당순이익(EPS)이 5.70달러로 전년 동기 대비 9.4% 증가했다고 발표했다. 반면 희석 GAAP EPS는 투자 포트폴리오 재편에 따른 실현 손실이 주된 원인이 되어 28.4% 감소했다.
• 원수보험료는 4.8% 감소했고 순원수보험료는 1.5% 줄었다. 치열한 경쟁으로 대형 계정 물량이 줄어들면서 상업용 부동산을 제외한 원수보험료는 0.5% 감소했다.
• 합산비율은 전년 동기의 74.9%에서 75.4%로 상승했다. 손해율은 53.4%로 50bp 개선된 반면, 사업비율은 22.0%로 100bp 증가했다.
• 신규 사업 인수 제안은 6% 증가했다. 상업용 부동산을 제외하면 인수 제안은 10% 늘었으며, 킨세일 사업부의 절반 이상이 두 자릿수 인수 제안 증가율을 기록했다.
• 순투자수익은 5,830만 달러로 17.5% 증가했다. 보험 운용자금(Float)은 2025년 말 31억 달러에서 35억 달러로 늘었다.
• 킨세일은 해당 분기 동안 1억 달러 규모로 자사주 26만 9,000주를 매입했다. 경영진은 기회주의적 매입 활동에 따라 달라질 수 있지만, 기존 매입 승인 잔여 기간 동안 분기당 약 1억 달러 수준이 적정한 실행 속도(Run rate)라고 밝혔다.

핵심 재무 데이터

킨세일은 수익률 2% 미만인 채권 약 1억 3,000만 달러어치를 매각하고 수익률 5.5% 이상인 채권으로 교체했다. 경영진은 이로 인해 연간 순투자수익이 약 550만~600만 달러 증가할 것으로 추산했다. 채권 매각으로 세전 이익은 3,760만 달러(희석주당 1.67달러) 감소했으나 장부가치에는 영향이 없었다.

사업 및 영업 실적

상업용 부동산은 여전히 가장 큰 압박 요인이었다. 전사 인수 제안, 견적 및 승낙 주문(Bind orders)이 4~6%대 비율로 증가했음에도 불구하고, 대형 및 분할(Layered) 부동산 계정의 경쟁 심화로 원수보험료가 감소했다.

킨세일의 계정 구성은 소형 위험 중심으로 이동했다. 경영진은 보험료 10만 달러 이상인 증권이 전체 증권 건수의 약 0.7%에 불과하지만 전체 보험료의 약 12%를 차지한다고 밝혔다. 대형 계정은 소형 계정에 비해 신규 사업 성사율(Hit rate)이 낮고 갱신 유지율도 약세를 보이고 있다.

농업 및 상업용 자동차, 엔터테인먼트, 해상, 환경 등 여러 언더라이팅 사업부가 두 자릿수 성장을 달성했다. 경영진은 또한 초과 배상책임, 의료연계(Allied Health), 생산물 배상책임, 헬스케어, 에너지 및 농업 부동산 부문에서도 우호적인 여건을 확인했다고 덧붙였다.

킨세일의 종합 요율(Pricing) 추세는 2026년 2분기 5.9% 감소에서 3.1% 감소로 완화된 암윈스(Amwins) 요율 지수와 대략 일치했다. 상업용 부동산은 상당한 요율 하락 압력에 지속적으로 직면한 반면, 상업용 자동차, 초과 배상책임 및 엔터테인먼트는 요율 인상 기회를 제공했다.

유통망 및 상품 확대가 인수 제안 성장을 뒷받침했다. 킨세일은 해당 분기 동안 12개 신규 도매 브로커를 선정했고, 아스페라(Aspera)는 124개 소매 브로커를 추가했다. 회사는 소형 패키지 보험, 디지털 헬스, 선박 및 선주 배상책임(Hull and P&I) 상품을 포함해 연말까지 5~6개의 신규 상품을 추가 출시할 계획이다.

경영진은 킨세일의 자체 기술, 17년간 축적된 통합 데이터베이스, 분석 모델이 더 신속한 언더라이팅, 세분화된 위험 요율 책정, 낮은 영업 비용을 뒷받침한다고 강조했다. 회사는 언더라이팅, 분석, 보상 청구, 인수 제안 처리 및 소프트웨어 개발 전반에 100개 이상의 AI 에이전트와 스킬을 활용하고 있다.

경영진 전망

경영진은 전 상품 라인에 걸쳐 최소 20%의 자기자본이익률(ROE) 목표를 계속 유지하고 있다. 요율 결정에는 보상 한도, 공제액, 지역, 보장 조건 및 예상 손실 비용이 반영된다.

회사는 최근의 재해 발생 활동이 실적에 미치는 영향은 미미할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 경영진은 또한 경쟁 환경이 여전히 불확실하지만 상업용 부동산 보험료의 감소세가 완화될 수 있다고 밝혔다.

킨세일은 기술과 자동화를 통해 향후 사업비율 원가를 점진적으로 낮출 수 있을 것으로 기대하고 있다. 단기적으로는 대형 계정 비중 축소로 인해 보험료 성장에 지속적인 영향을 받을 수 있으나, 경영진은 이러한 조정 과정이 자연스럽게 마무리되어 구체적인 일정을 제시하지는 않았지만 단기 내에 완만한 성장세로 복귀하기를 기대하고 있다.

자본 배분은 보험 사업의 성장을 계속해서 최우선 순위에 둘 예정이며, 자사주 매입과 완만한 수준의 배당이 그 뒤를 잇는다. 경영진은 킨세일이 인수합병(M&A)에는 관심이 없다고 밝혔다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 상업용 부동산 및 일부 장기 배상책임(Long-tail casualty) 분야의 치열한 경쟁이 요율과 대형 계정의 보험료 수입을 압박하고 있다.
• 경영진은 특히 부동산 및 대형 배상책임 거래에서 대안 자본(Alternative capital), MGA(총괄대리점) 및 인가 보험사(Admitted carriers)를 주요 경쟁 요인으로 꼽았다.
• 일부 사업부에서는 손실 비용 상승 추세가 요율 인상폭을 약간 앞서고 있으나, 경영진은 기존 마진이 이를 완충해 주고 있다고 설명했다.
• 장기 배상책임 준비금은 청구 불확실성, 인플레이션, 미국 불법행위법(Tort) 환경 변화 위험에 여전히 노출되어 있다. 킨세일은 이들 라인에 대해 보수적인 준비금 적립 기조를 유지하고 있다.
• 재보험 보유비율 상승은 언더라이팅 마진과 투자 가능 운용자금을 늘려주지만, 출재 수수료(Ceding commissions)를 감소시켜 보고상 사업비율을 높인다.
• 개인 보험(Personal Insurance)은 루이지애나주의 집중도 축소와 캘리포니아 및 플로리다주의 주택 소유자 보험 경쟁 심화로 인해 계속 압박을 받고 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

경영진은 소형 계정 중심으로의 이동이 사업비율에 실질적인 영향을 미치지는 않을 것이라고 밝혔다. 평균 보험료 하락폭은 미미한 수준에 그쳤으며, 인수 제안 증가와 자동화 도입이 보험료 성장 둔화의 영향을 대부분 상쇄했다.

준비금 진전(Reserve development)과 관련해 경영진은 전년도의 우호적인 결과가 청구 결과의 예측 가능성이 높은 부동산 및 기타 단기 라인에 집중되었다고 밝혔다. 킨세일은 장기 사업 부문의 준비금 환입에 대해서는 여전히 신중한 태도를 취하고 있다.

배상책임 요율 책정에 대해 경영진은 일부 사업부에서 손실 비용 증가율이 요율 변동률을 상회하고 있음을 인정했다. 다만 회사는 최소 20% 이상의 ROE를 창출할 수 있다고 판단되는 계약만 지속적으로 인수하고 있다.

경영진은 투자 수익률 상승이 단기적으로 목표 손해율을 변경시키지는 않는다고 밝혔다. 다만 높은 수익률이 장기간 지속될 경우 궁극적으로 요율 책정에 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 덧붙였다.

경쟁사의 동향과 관련해 경영진은 경쟁사들이 대형 갱신 계약의 요율을 킨세일의 기존 보험료보다 훨씬 낮게 책정한 사례를 언급했다. 회사는 요율이 수익성 요건을 충족하지 못하는 사업은 추진하지 않겠다고 밝혔다.

실적발표 콘퍼런스 콜 전문

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전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2026 Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2025 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its third quarter results.

Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com.

I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's Chairman, President and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

Michael Kehoe

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by Bryan Petrucelli, our Chief Financial Officer; Stuart Winston, our Chief Underwriting Officer; Tomanlibai, our Chief Analytics and Technology Officer; and Chris Tangard, our Chief Accounting Officer. Before we get into the quarterly results, I want to acknowledge and congratulate our colleague, Bryan Petrucelli on his just announced retirement next year and his election to the Kinsale Board of Directors. Bryan has made significant contributions to Kinsale in a variety of roles, but especially as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for the last decade or so.

Bryan is not only a financial expert and a sound business manager, but he has great judgment and integrity and most importantly, he's a quality human being. We will miss having him on the day-to-day team next year, but know that he will make a great addition to our Board, and we are grateful that he will continue contributing to Kinsale in that capacity. I also want to congratulate Chris Tangard, who will become Kinsale's CFO in March of 2027. Chris joined the company from KPMG 7 years ago. He's taken -- he has taken on a number of finance roles over the years, including his promotion to Chief Accounting Officer 2 years ago.

As CFO, Chris will continue to build on our current success and investors will have lots of opportunity to get to know him in the months ahead. In the third quarter 2026, Kinsale's diluted operating earnings per share increased 9.4% over the third quarter of '25, generating an annualized operating ROE of 25.6% through 9 months. Gross written premium was down 4.8% and net written premium was down 1.5%. Kinsale's combined ratio was 75.4% for the quarter. E&S market conditions in the third quarter continued to be competitive and largely consistent with conditions in the second quarter. The level of competition and our growth rate continues to vary from one market segment to another, as you can see from the premium by underwriting division exhibit in our Q. And I'm sorry, we've got a fire alarm going off in the building adjacent to ours. We're going to keep persevering here.

The continued intense competition in our commercial property division weighed on our growth rate in the quarter. And excluding that one division, our gross written premium was down 0.5%. It's also important to note that even with the drop in gross written premium for the quarter, can sales number of submissions, quotes and bind orders grew in the mid-single-digit range. Essentially, with the competition in the E&S market, our book shifted slightly from larger to smaller accounts. Not only is this shift positive for maintaining best-in-class margins, but it also shows that the Kinsale model works and works well even in the most competitive market we've seen in the last 10 years.

Our disciplined underwriting and low-cost business model recognizes the importance of the insurance buyer in every transaction we deliver competitively priced insurance without compromising our margins and we continue to grow the business and take market share, subject only to a temporary written premium growth slowdown as we shift slightly away from larger transactions and write a slightly smaller average premium.

While Kinsale always prioritizes profit over growth, we are still working very hard to grow the business. The various growth initiatives involve new and enhanced products, appointing new brokers, a robust marketing effort and improved customer service. Stuart Winston will have some commentary on these topics here in a moment.

In this era of artificial intelligence, Kinsale's long-standing strategy of making technology a core competency is allowing us to widen our lead over many competitors. Kinsale's core enterprise system is custom-built for our business by our own engineers, analysts and developers. We don't have any legacy software applications dating back decades ago. We also have all the company data from the first policy we wrote for the first claim we received 17 years ago, recorded in the same database.

Kinsale's tech advantage allows for lower costs, better customer service and more data at the transaction level to better manage the business. Further, we have built our analytics and actuarial team over the last decade to constantly evaluate our own data and data that we acquire to improve how we segment and price risk. This team of quants, combined with millions of dollars of investment and further combined with a superior tech stack, is creating underwriting and pricing algorithms superior to others in the E&S industry. And Salmaan Allibhai is going to have some further comments on this topic in a moment as well.

And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Chris Tanngard.

Unknown Executive

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone. Before I provide commentary on our quarterly results, I want to recap our capital allocation priorities and recent actions, particularly in light of the current competitive environment that Mike mentioned. Our first capital allocation priority is to fund growth in our high-margin insurance business. Our second priority is to return excess capital to stockholders, primarily through share repurchases.

We also pay a dividend that, while modest, has increased at a 17.5% compound annual growth rate since our IPO in 2016. We have no interest in M&A. Over the last several years, we've generated significant capital in excess of what we need to operate the business in the current lower growth phase of the cycle. This excess capital generation continues today. As a result, in the third quarter, we repurchased 269,000 shares at an aggregate cost of $100 million or just under 80% of net operating earnings in the quarter. The $100 million is consistent with the second quarter and an increase from the $62.5 million in the first quarter of this year. At this time, we expect $100 million to be a good quarterly run rate and plan to be opportunistic otherwise.

Our debt to total capitalization is low at approximately 10%. And should we need additional capital in the future, we would likely look to use leverage to generate higher returns on equity.

Moving on to our financial results for the quarter. Diluted earnings per share declined 28.4% and diluted operating earnings per share increased 9.4% compared to the third quarter of last year. Annualized return on equity and annualized operating return on equity for the 9 months ended September 30 were 26.6% and 25.6%, respectively. The decline in GAAP earnings was primarily driven by our sale of certain fixed maturity holdings in a loss position, largely offsetting our selling of certain equity investments in a gain position as we repositioned the investment portfolio.

With the proceeds from these sales, we reinvested approximately $100 million in higher conviction equity securities and replaced approximately $130 million of bonds yielding less than 2% with bonds yielding more than 5.5%. As the unrealized depreciation of equities is recorded through earnings each quarter, the majority of the equity gains were reflected in earnings in prior periods.

Conversely, the loss on the fixed maturity holdings was reflected in earnings upon sale.

The net pretax earnings impact of the bond sales was $37.6 million or $1.67 per diluted share in the third quarter. The sales had no impact on book value.

Stripping out the investment noise, diluted operating earnings per share improved to $5.70.

Quarterly combined ratio was 75.4% compared to 74.9% in the third quarter of 2025. The loss ratio improved to 53.4% from 53.9%, largely driven by higher favorable prior year development. The expense ratio increased 1 point to 22% from 21%, primarily due to higher net commissions resulting from higher reinsurance retentions, which results in lower ceding commissions. The higher retention is an intentional trade to retain more underwriting margin and float to generate investment income, which results in a slightly higher expense ratio. As a result of these changes to our reinsurance program, which renewed on June 1, the retention ratio increased to 86.2% in the third quarter compared to 83.3% in the third quarter last year.

The other underwriting portion of the expense ratio, which is the best measure of the operational efficiency of our business was 10.2% for the third quarter of 2026, flat compared to the same period last year.

Turning to investments. Net investment income increased 17.5% to $58.3 million as a result of both a higher invested asset base and higher interest rates. Kinsale's sales float increased to $3.5 billion at September 30, up from $3.1 billion at year-end 2025. New money yields are averaging north of 5%, and the fixed maturity portfolio has an average duration of 4.4 years.

Overall, we're pleased with our third quarter performance. We continue to produce best-in-class underwriting results, attractive investing returns and strong returns on equity while returning meaningful capital to stockholders.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Stuart.

Stuart Winston

Thanks, Chris. At the risk for sound like a broken record, the soft E&S market continued in the third quarter across property in certain long-tail casualty lines. However, there are some favorable areas in the market that we are turning into growth opportunities. Our goal is an underwriting organization and a softer softening market is to grow where we can, but more importantly, maintain our profitability. We'll continue to be aggressive where we can, but at the same time, maintain a conservative stance in areas where we feel irrational competition has taken hold. We offer our brokers one of the broadest risk appetites in the E&S market. We will continue developing new products and adding underwriting flexibility where it makes sense, further expanding that appetite.

The breadth of our underwriting appetite allows us to pivot to the areas where growth is promising and take advantage. The divisions like Agribusiness in commercial auto, entertainment, Ocean Marine and environmental, all experienced double-digit growth for the quarter. We continue to see favorable underwriting conditions in excess casualty, Allied Health, products liability, health care, energy and Agribusiness property as well.

Before I move on, I want to briefly address the most recent cat activity in the quarter, and we expect this impact on our results to be immaterial.

Moving on, overall new business submission growth increased 6% in the third quarter, a similar rate to Q2 of this year. We continue to see a decline in new business submissions in the Commercial Property division that handles a large share on layered deals. Excluding the Commercial Property division, new business submissions were up 10% for the quarter and over half of our divisions are seeing submission growth in the double digits.

While our lines of business are experiencing varying levels of competition and pricing pressure, the combined pricing trend for Kinsale is in line with the Amwins pricing index, which showed a decrease of 3.1% compared to 5.9% decrease in Q2 2026. While we continue to see strong rate pressure in commercial property, other lines like commercial auto and excess casualty and entertainment present opportunities for meaningful rate increases.

Distribution and product expansion continue to drive growth. On the product side, we're looking to finish the year by rolling out an additional 5 or 6 new offerings ranging from small package policies to a digital health offering in Holland P&I. We continue to look for opportunities in the market to roll out new offerings to broaden our appetite. We also continue to sign up new producers to drive submission growth. During the third quarter, we appointed 12 new wholesale brokers at the Kinsale platform and 124 new retail brokers to Aspera, our in-house broker through which we distribute most of our personal lines products.

The durability of our model continue to show throughout the third quarter. Despite an influx of competition, submissions, quotes and binders increased across the company, while renewal retention remains steady. New products in addition to our distribution network should continue to support growth. At the same time, large accounts remain under downward pressure. We will not chase business where the economics do not make sense. Instead, we will maintain our discipline and continue to focus on the small to medium enterprise space.

So to bring it all together, the market is soft and it may stay that way for a while. We aren't going to let the market change how we operate. We will grow where the opportunity is real. We'll hold the line where competition has outrun the risk and we will never trade profitability for volume. Soft markets don't last forever and neither do hard ones. What we can control is how we operate in each. A broad risk appetite lets us find areas for growth, our small account focus allows for more opportunities and more favorable rates and a tremendous efficiency advantage will support returns as pricing softens. That's our model in a nutshell and it's designed to perform across the whole of the market cycle.

So with that, I'll turn it over to Salmaan.

Salmaan Allibhai

Thanks, Stuart. On the analytics and actuarial side, our guiding philosophy is that we constantly want to improve how we segment and price risk. While many competitors cut rates across the board, our goal is to be more targeted and methodical. We will adjust rates where it makes sense consistent with our target of a 20% return on equity or better. Two major components of our analytics strategy are third-party data and generalized linear models. Each year, we acquire, analyze and incorporate more third-party data into our underwriting and pricing process. This augments our internal data and information provided by the brokers to improve how we segment and price risk. Because all 17 years of Kinsale data resides in one database, we can perform analyses and implement improvements quickly.

Generalized linear models are an increasingly important part of our pricing toolkit. They let us measure how various risk characteristics together drive loss at a granular level rather than relying on broad class level rates. We also use other machine learning algorithms to find patterns that feed back into those models and ultimately, our rates. Our rating engine brings this all together and produces a technical price for every risk adjusted for the coverage provided. That tells our underwriters exactly where market pricing is relative to the actuarially sound price. The results show in our loss ratios. In today's market, the analytics advantage we have is more important and more durable than ever and will allow us to maintain those low loss ratios, while competitors with less sophisticated pricing face adverse selection.

On technology, our talented engineers and developers have built our own proprietary systems. We do not have legacy software, which lets us spend our effort on innovation rather than maintenance. Those proprietary systems support the fast response times our brokers expect, power our data and analytics advantage and keep our expense ratio the lowest among our competitors by a wide margin. As we've noted in the past, AI has been adopted broadly across the company for some time now.

Every associate has an enterprise license for 2 of the leading frontier models along with their agentic tools. Across the organization, we utilized over 100 agents and skills to process submissions, improve underwriting, perform analytics, intake, claims, draft correspondents and much more. For the technology team in particular, these genic tools help our developers write and review code, which speeds up how quickly we deliver new capabilities to the business. We've made meaningful progress building AI functionality into our enterprise applications, and there is a lot more to be done.

Kinsale is well positioned for a more competitive part of the insurance cycle and for the disruption that AI will bring to our industry. Our efficiency and pricing accuracy compound over time, and we believe our lead is widening every day.

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

Michael Kehoe

Thanks, Salmaan. Operator, we're now ready for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Christian Getsoff with Wells Fargo.

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Unknown Analyst

As we think about the mix shift towards smaller accounts and casualty, when we look at the average premium per policy ex personal lines of $11,700, if I exclude commercial property estimate, it's around $10,400, how we are you expecting that average premium per policy to trend to? And is there any meaningful impact on loss ratios from this mix shift towards smaller accounts?

Stuart Winston

Yes. Christian, this is Stuart. I think the average premium is closer to -- ex CP was closer to $10,700 or in $10,900 year-to-date through Q2, $10,700 through Q3. It's probably going to remain pretty steady, but we'll trend maybe slightly downward as competition picks up, but it's not a drop off a steep lift.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. And then your LAE ratios, if I look at statins continue to improve meaningfully, I calculate about 200 bps improvement in the first half, which is offsetting a lot of the pressure on the incurred loss ratio side. if you kind of think about pricing pressure and mix shift towards casualty, can you frame how you're thinking about that LEE improvement from here? Is this 200 bps of good pokey as we kind of think about 2027?

Stuart Winston

I don't know that we're -- have that level of detail to jump into in the call. I would think it's going to be pretty consistent. I'm not sure what's driving the delta there. Our reinsurance retentions wouldn't impact that.

Michael Kehoe

Yes. I wouldn't read too much into the change. Some of that is assumption changes when we're setting IBNR. I wouldn't read too much into that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.

The next question will be from Andrew Kligerman with TD Cohen.

Andrew Kligerman

So I'm curious, with casualty written premium up about 0.9%, I'm curious as to what rates did with respect to that point, what proportion was rates, how much were rates up actually? And did pricing keep up with loss cost?

Salmaan Allibhai

Andrew, this is Salmaan. I would say pricing varies across the divisions. But in general, right, I think Stuart noted, the pricing trends are kind of in line with the Amwins index. I think loss cost trends are in some divisions running slightly ahead of where rates are. But for us, we think that's okay just given the margins that we're generating.

Andrew Kligerman

Perfect. Okay. And then on the prior year development of 4.5%, could you kind of give us the geography of of accident years and products that went into that $4.5 million?

Salmaan Allibhai

We probably won't get too much into the detail by accident year, but I can tell you that a lot of the prior year favorable development was disproportionately the shorter tail lines of business. So I think the property lines of business and some of the shorter claims made lines of business.

Michael Kehoe

And Andrew, we've kind of been maintaining that methodology, I think, for a couple of years now, allowing the short tail results to flow out to the bottom line where there's more predictability and being a little bit more cautious holding back the reserve development on the longer tail business.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

Pablo Singzon

How much net investment pickup you expect from the fixed income assets you repositioned this quarter?

Unknown Executive

Pablo, this is Chris. We the delta on the bonds we sold and the bonds we purchased was just shy of 400 basis points, and the proceeds we reinvested were about $130 million. So you can do the math on it, probably $5.5 million, $6 million annually.

Pablo Singzon

Yes. And then a second question. As you adapted a more competitive market, are you still able to price at your historical expected margins in the business you choose to, right? And how does investment income figure how you price and accept our turnover business?

Michael Kehoe

Yes. Pablo, this is Mike. We manage really all of our product lines to a 20% return or greater. And as the actuaries work through our pricing models, they effectively translate the ROE into a loss ratio target for the division managers. That's how it's more or less handled internally. But yes, 20% ROE or greater. So all the business we're putting on the books is business that we think is producing really compelling margins.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer.

Michael Phillips

With the shift towards the smaller accounts, can you talk -- you already talked about the impact on the loss ratio. Can you talk about the, I guess, the puts and takes that happen on the expense ratio from that shift?

Michael Kehoe

Yes Michael, this is Mike. I don't any real impact on the expense ratio. I think if you look at the average premium, it's down, I don't know, a couple of hundred dollars over the last year or something. I mean it's it's more or less steady. The reason we've kind of highlighted the decline kind of addresses a little bit around this idea that, hey, the written premium is down. And we're trying to just emphasize the fact that, yes, the written premium is off a little bit, mostly because we've seen an attrition in some of the larger business we write, whereas the submission count is growing, the number of quotes, the number of bind orders, it's all up kind of mid-single digits for the quarter, which to us kind of communicates the fact that our business model, even in a very competitive market is continuing to work quite well.

Michael Phillips

Okay, Mike. And maybe just the second question is still on the expense ratio. I was trying to think about the benefits of productivity gains from tech versus slower top line growth and maybe just how to weigh those 2 and what that could mean in the near term for the expense ratio.

Michael Kehoe

Yes. I think I would say the rollout -- the steady rollout of more and more automation in our business, not just in underwriting, but in claims in our policy services area really across the company, has a positive impact. You could say, well, the decline in premium for the quarter probably had a modest negative impact. I think they largely offset. I think Chris indicated our other underwriting expense component of the expense ratio was steady at 10.2%. But I would just tell you, from a higher level, that low expense ratio that Kinsale has is a fundamental part of our business strategy. And we expect that to drift downward over time, not up, mostly because of technology.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Anderson with Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen

Congrats to Brian on retirement and Chris for the new role here. As we think about the business mix, should commercial property contraction moderate in 2027? Or do you find the current pricing and submission trends pointing to perhaps another year of double-digit declines in premium volume there?

Stuart Winston

Andrew, it's Stuart. We're always hopeful that it will moderate. There are some signs that the reductions are easing, but it's day by day, but we are hopeful that it will moderate.

Andrew Andersen

Okay. And across the whole business with property and casualty here, when you talk about competition, are you seeing this more from admitted carriers pulling more business back from E&S? Is it competition within -- from existing E&S carriers and MGAs? And perhaps how far along are we in that shift if it is the admitted market being more of the competitive dynamic here?

Stuart Winston

I think the admitted market is more prevalent in the property space with the MGAs. MGAs and admitted in the property space. And on the casualty side, long-tail lines, it's the front and the MGAs on larger deals that are driving accounts that should be $500,000 or going for $150,000. It's just not worth competing on that business. And it's been going on for a couple of years. We'll see how long it has until it bears fruit.

Andrew Andersen

And maybe last one. I think I heard $100 million quarterly run rate. Was that just for the -- for buybacks? Was that just for the remainder of the year? Or are you contemplating that into '27 as well?

Stuart Winston

That was intended to be for the remainder of our repurchase authorization.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

Mark Hughes

Yes. I'll just congratulations to Brian and Chris. I'll follow that up to the $100 million once you exhaust this authorization, presumably you'll have another is $100 million beyond that, a good run rate?

Michael Kehoe

Well, Mark, this is Mike. We haven't -- we'll make that decision when we get down the road a little bit. But essentially, our capital allocation strategy should be pretty obvious at this point. Growth is our biggest priority. If we can't grow the business near term as rapidly as we want, it's buybacks and then the small dividend is how we're thinking about capital allocation.

Mark Hughes

Okay. When we think about current accident year, I think you might have touched on this, but the moving parts of decline in property, which I think has been more profitable, correct me if I'm wrong, would seem to be a headwind for accident year losses, but then the mix shift maybe into smaller accounts and better underwriting would be helpful. How should we think about that accident year loss number? Is it more likely to go higher than lower? How should we think about it?

Michael Kehoe

Mark, we don't -- we probably can't give you forward guidance on the accident, your loss ratio. But I might -- I would say looking at it simply casualty versus property, that may not be the best way to look at it, right, even within casualty, there are varying lines of business with differing loss ratios. I would say, across the board, our losses are coming in below expected. But the ultimate takeaway for us is that the business continues to generate really attractive underwriting margins again in the property space and the casualty space.

And that we continue to reserve cautiously and conservatively so that investors have a lot of confidence in the strength of our balance sheet and in the integrity of our results.

Unknown Analyst

If I might ask one more. The submissions up mid-single digits. It sounds like your retention is pretty good. I'm just sort of curious, is that reflective of perhaps a more shopping behavior? Or are you still seeing a mix shift out of admitted into E&S?

Stuart Winston

Mark, it's Stuart. I think there is a little more shopping, but it's also -- hey, we have a lot of new products that we rolled out this year. We have a lot of new distribution partners that we're working with. So that all comes into play. So it's a little bit of everything. Stuff we've done internally and stuff happening in the market.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.

Jian Huang

I understand that you don't have tech legacy infrastructure data is modern. And you talked about with AI, your tech edge is widening versus your peers. That said, right, a lot of traditional carriers or maybe even a lot of the newer carriers are showcasing more complex capabilities. And so for example, right, like a sub 24 hours underwriting quote and bind is much more common these days. Can you maybe help us think about how you're thinking about AI as a resetting mechanism for technology and competition, where you feel you have the widening tech lead over others. Like just curious if you can give us some examples as well is that possible?

Michael Kehoe

I'm going to let -- Salmaan you start.

Salmaan Allibhai

Yes. Again, I alluded to some of these comments, right? We're definitely able to -- our underwriters are definitely able to quote more quickly, but also handle more volume, right? Our policy operations folks are able to process transactions more quickly. The claims examiners are more efficient, right? They're able to draft correspondents more quickly.

On the IT side, we're able to deliver new features and functionality to the business more quickly. the ability to do analytics is enhanced, right, turning unstructured data into structured data. So I think there there are efficiencies and productivity gains across the board. And again, we feel like we're at the forefront of that.

Michael Kehoe

Yes. And Bob, this is Mike. I'm not sure we're well positioned to do the compare and contrast. I would just say, our experience over 17 years is that Kinsale kind of is at the lead in terms of the customer service we deliver to our brokers -- the quote ratios are, I guess, on new business, run about 75% of our submissions turn into quotes. And most of those quotes go out in a day or 2. And then when you combine that with a tremendous underwriting flexibility, in terms of risk appetite, I think our model is a little bit unique, although highly competitive market and we've got 100 competitors.

So -- and then on the tech specifically, I think that's a direct line through to the expense ratio. We finished the quarter at 22% GAAP expense ratio. I don't know how many of our competitors are at that same level. But if they're really achieving all that we're achieving in terms of technology, I suspect they ought to be in a similar neighborhood.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Cantor.

Ryan Tunis

Congrats to Brian and Chris. First of all, on the mix shift, 2 parts to this one. First of all, is there a broader point being made going from large account to small, could be a contributing factor growth deceleration? And then second of all, could you just give us some idea of what percentage of your overall business is large account today versus maybe where it was 5 years ago?

Michael Kehoe

Ryan, this is Mike. I can't do the 5-year comparison. The last time I looked, it was about a month ago. And I think 0.7% of our policies were $100,000 premium and up, but that represented about 12% of the overall premium. And then -- I forgot what your first question was, like how the mix shift is impacting growth.

Ryan Tunis

Yes, it's 12% of total premium, I'm guessing...

Michael Kehoe

Yes. But we're just seeing more competition on that end of our accounts. we see a lower hit ratio on new business quotes. We see a lower renewal retention than we do on the smaller accounts. And so we had something last week. It was $120,000 renewal. Somebody wrote it for $30,000. So it's -- there's some wild behavior out there. Obviously, we're not going to chase that down. But you got to write a handful -- you got to write $10,000 -- $12,000 policy to offset the $120,000. So we're doing that. That's why we kind of highlighted those production statistics. The submissions are growing, the quotes are growing, the bind orders are growing. It's just that we've got a temporary drop-off in the written premium. That will correct near term on its own.

Ryan Tunis

Got it. And then my follow-up is just on the underlying loss ratio. And historically, there's been that seasonality where it tends to go lower in the back half of the year. We didn't see that this quarter. I'm just curious if there's any color around that.

Unknown Executive

Yes, there's nothing unusual. Again, the loss ratio is comprised of a variety of lines of business and underwriting divisions. I think that seasonality, generally speaking, does still exist. But yes, I think in general, it does still exist.

Operator

Your next question comes from Rowland Mayor with RBC Capital Markets.

Rowland Mayor

Congrats, Bryan, on the planned retirement and, Chris, on the promotion. I wanted to start on just the yield pickup. Does that change your targeted loss ratio as you seek the 20% ROE?

Bryan Petrucelli

Not near term, no. Maybe if it persisted well into the future, at some point, it probably would impact pricing a little bit.

Rowland Mayor

Okay. That's great. And Mike, I appreciate your comment on the reserve conservatism in long-tail lines. Does that feed into pricing decisions? And is that like weighing on growth a little bit here?

Michael Kehoe

Big time. big time, it's weighing on growth because we've got some competitors that are very aggressive. We've got some disciplined competitors, too, but there are some out there that are very aggressive in how they price risk.

Rowland Mayor

And the reserves in those long tail lines have been pretty stable for a couple of years now. What do you need to see to kind of unwind that conservatism on that?

Michael Kehoe

Well, that's -- we've got a dozen lines of business. We're in our, I think, 17th exiting year every quarter. We're looking at actual claim activity, new claims coming in, old claims being negotiated and settled. And then we're comparing that activity against our actuarial assumptions and making adjustments. But I mean, ultimately, I think Salmaan laid out the goals. We want to be very conservative in our loss picks, especially on the longer tail business.

The Torch system in the U.S. can be a little bit unpredictable at times. Long tail business is a little more exposed to inflation, changes in inflation rates. And we just have always felt that, that's important is to be prepared for a little bit of that unpredictability with conservative reserves.

Rowland Mayor

And then if I could just squeeze one more. I know it's small, but the personal insurance business has been shrinking a lot. Anything going on there to call out?

Stuart Winston

Rowland, it's Stuart. Yes, we did some adjustment in our concentration in Louisiana, which was a driver of growth and for that -- for the PI division. And there's increased competition in California and Florida for homeowners. It's -- we see there's some bright spots coming with the Fair plan in California change in rates, doing a large rate increase. I think at the end of this month or start of November, so hopefully, there's a little pickup there. But it's just -- there's heavy competition in the space.

Michael Kehoe

But we're also really leaning into it. I think Stuart mentioned earlier, we're appointing a lot of new brokers. So we're kind of ramping up the distribution and the marketing in that effort, and we're working on some system enhancements. So more to come on the personal lines. That's -- it's obviously a tiny part of our business. But longer term, we think it's going to be more material to our growth prospects.

Rowland Mayor

That's glad the fire alarm stops.

Michael Kehoe

Yes.

Operator

You next question comes from Mike Zaremski with BMO.

Michael Zaremski

Sorry about that earlier. I'm not sure what happened. Maybe a couple of questions on the casualty side of the business. Are you all seeing any changes in the slope of lawsuit inflation? We've heard one prominent E&S carrier talk about seeing an improvement in the slope of casualty toward inflation.

Salmaan Allibhai

Mike, this is Salmaan. I don't think we're seeing anything in particular. I don't think we have enough evidence to comment either way.

Michael Zaremski

Okay. Got it. And sticking to casualty, feel free to bring property into, but their core business is casualty. So we're seeing commission rates for a lot of the E&S carriers that drift higher. That's the total commission rate they're paying to brokers. I'm not sure about the split to the wholesale broker versus the retail broker. But would you say that trend is one of the components that's kind of causing Kinsale's win ratio to be a bit lower?

Michael Kehoe

Mike, this is Mike. No, our hit ratio on new business quotes is steady, consistent with last year. Our renewal retention is the same as it was last year. the number of submissions is growing even in this competitive market, the number of quotes, the number of bind orders. Look, I'll acknowledge when rates decline, it does create a little bit of a headwind for everybody in the business, the retail broker, the wholesale broker, the insurance carrier, the reinsurers. And so yes, there's a natural tension where the retailers, I think, this is well known are negotiating for a larger percentage of the gross commission when they're negotiating with the wholesalers.

I think the wholesalers are looking for insurance companies to pay more higher gross commission. The insurance buyer once lower costs, right, the business owners that we serve, they want to pay less for insurance, not more. So look, it's an inevitable tension in the business. It's it's been this way forever. It's probably exacerbated in a more competitive period of the cycle, for sure, but it's not new. And yes, we acknowledge we probably lose business routinely because of the commission, but we also get business routinely because we're the low-cost leader in an industry where you're selling a commodity-like product. I promise the customers want low-cost insurance.

And so we manage our own costs aggressively. I think we pay reasonable commissions. They're slightly lower than our competitors, but we also offer our brokers the best customer service in the industry. There's nobody close to what Kinsale is doing. We offer the broadest risk appetite. If you've got a hard to place E&S account, I think we're a go-to market, and we can be incredibly competitive on pricing, not just because of low cost but because of superior analytics and a better understanding of how to price risk.

So I think we're -- we like our model, but we acknowledge kind of the headwind you're noting.

Michael Zaremski

That's helpful. And maybe just lastly, sticking with the competitive conditions and in casualty specifically. And I guess we get asked a decent amount about interest rate tailwinds, especially in the last few months, great for Kinsale but also great for your competitors. I mean is it fair to assume that the kind of current levels of competition in casualty will remain the trend in terms of kind of a less growth will persist given just the -- how influential interest rates are on the overall ROE for the industry?

Michael Kehoe

Yes. I would look beyond interest rates. I think it's really the flood of alternative capital that's come into the business over the last 5 or 10 years is driving a much higher level of competition. But the reason we belabored this issue around submissions, quotes and bind orders growing. It just gives hopefully a better understanding of the premium decline. The premium decline is principally driven by a little bit of a mix shift away from larger towards smaller accounts. I think that will run its course relatively quickly. And I think we'll be back to a modest growth, hopefully, in the near term. I can't give you a date, but I think we're just going through a little bit of an adjustment as we lose some bigger deals, like the example I gave a few minutes ago, $120,000 renewal, somebody writes that for $30,000, right? That sounds kind of foolish. But that's the market we're competing in today. And so I think that's where we are.

Michael Zaremski

Got it. So on that point, and sorry to take up too much time, but on the 0.7 of policies being 12%-ish of premiums -- sorry, I had assumed, I think many people might have assumed that was mostly a property comment. So I don't know if you have the data on just that -- it sounds like you're saying that there's also some large account in casualty. Is that correct, Mike?

Michael Kehoe

Yes. We definitely write large accounts in casualty, too. I think it's been disproportionately property for sure, especially in that commercial property division, where we wrote a lot of 6-figure deals.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

Pablo Singzon

So my question is about the, I guess, the richness of the curveage you're providing, right? Has that changed versus maybe 3 or 4 years ago? And if you're holding the line there, how is competition acting? And I guess it's easier to see pricing trends on the outside, but I'm just wondering if you think about limits, exclusions, et cetera, how are you positioned versus everyone else in the market today?

Michael Kehoe

Well, we can't speak to everybody else. We just manage our own book to the 20% ROE or greater. And it absolutely takes into account limits, deductible, state territory coverage, et cetera. We've got a very quantitative approach to how we manage pricing. And again, we've got some disciplined competitors for sure, but we've got some that wouldn't sit in that category.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. We have reached the end of our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Kehoe for the closing remarks.

Michael Kehoe

All right. Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking again here in a couple of months. Have a great day.

Operator

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This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.