도버(DOV) 2026년 3분기 실적발표회: 수주 16% 증가, 가이던스 범위 상향 축소

도버 코퍼레이션(NYSE: DOV)이 2026 회계연도 3분기 자체 매출 성장 가속화, 전반적인 수주 모멘텀 및 잉여현금흐름 증가를 기록했다고 발표했다. 경영진은 연간 가이던스를 기존 제시 범위의 상단으로 좁혀 잡았으며, 35% 증가한 수주잔고를 2027년에 진입하는 핵심 가시성 원천으로 꼽았다.

핵심 요약

• 3분기 자체 매출 성장률은 7%로 가속화되었으며, 조정 EPS는 전년 동기 대비 10% 증가한 $2.88를 기록했다.
• 수주는 5개 전 사업 부문에서 16% 증가해 분기 수주/매출 비율(book-to-bill ratio) 1.03을 기록했다. 수주잔고는 전년 동기 대비 35% 증가했으며, 약 절반이 2027년 출하될 예정이다.
• 기후 및 지속가능성 기술 부문이 데이터센터 액체 냉각용 열교환기와 CO2 냉동 시스템의 분기 최대 매출에 힘입어 18% 성장을 기록하며 부문 성장을 이끌었다.
• 3분기 잉여현금흐름은 매출의 17%에 달하는 3억 8,300만 달러를 기록했다. 연초 대비 누적 잉여현금흐름은 전년 동기 대비 7,200만 달러 증가한 7억 300만 달러를 기록했다.
• 도버는 연간 가이던스를 자체 매출 성장률 5%~6%, 조정 EPS $10.60~$10.75 범위로 좁혀 조정했다.
• 당사는 3분기 동안 3억 3,000만 달러 이상의 자사주를 매입했으며 연초 대비 누적 매입액은 약 4억 달러에 달한다. 경영진은 단기 자본 배분이 주주 환원에 지속해서 집중될 것이라고 밝혔다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

도버는 자사의 구조적 성장 시장이 2024년 18%에서 현재 매출의 25% 이상을 차지하고 있다고 밝혔다. 이러한 시장에는 에너지 전환 및 발전, CO2 시스템, 데이터센터, 에너지 및 우주 응용 분야용 극저온 부품이 포함된다.

기후 및 지속가능성 기술 부문은 18%의 자체 성장률을 달성했다. 지역 및 최종 시장 전반에서 브레이징 판형 열교환기, 특히 데이터센터 액체 냉각에 대한 수요가 견조하게 유지되었다. 도버는 2027년까지 대형 열교환기의 글로벌 생산 능력을 2배로 늘리기 위해 투자하고 있다.

CO2 냉동 시스템은 분기 최대 매출을 기록했다. 버지니아주 리치먼드 공장의 생산성이 향상되어 분기 말 라인 생산 속도가 2분기 대비 15% 상승했다. 열교환기의 견조한 이익 전환에도 불구하고 CO2 시스템, 특수 케이스, 냉동 도어 케이스의 동시 생산 증대로 인해 부문 영업이익률은 18%를 기록했다.

식품 리테일 사업 부문은 생산 투자, 추가 인력 및 2개 공장 운영에 따른 이중 고정비 관련 연초 대비 누적 약 4,000만 달러의 비용을 반영했다. 도버는 이번 분기 동안 캘리포니아주 실마에서 도어 프레임 생산 통합 작업을 완료했다.

클린 에너지 및 주유 솔루션 부문은 자체적으로 12% 성장했다. 이러한 성장은 클린 에너지 부품, 유체 수송, 그리고 수년 만에 가장 강력한 분기 실적을 기록한 북미 리테일 주유 부문이 견인했다. LNG 및 우주 발사 인프라에 사용되는 극저온 부품 수요는 건전하게 유지되었다. 이익률은 생산 증대 비용이 물량 증가 효과를 상쇄하면서 보합세를 나타냈다.

이미징 및 식별 기술 부문은 직렬화 소프트웨어의 두 자릿수 성장과 견조한 마킹 및 코딩 수요에 힘입어 2%의 자체 성장률을 기록했다. 영업 레버리지, 소프트웨어 성장, 지역적 구성 및 환율 변동 효과 덕분에 이익률은 400베이시스포인트 확대된 33%를 기록했다.

펌프 및 프로세스 솔루션 부문은 자체적으로 1% 성장했다. AI 및 에너지 인프라, 일회용 바이오제약, 산업용 펌프가 폴리머 가공 장비 물량 감소를 상쇄했다. 산업용 펌프 및 정밀 부품의 이익 전환과 바이오제약 비중 증가에 힘입어 이익률은 70베이시스포인트 증가한 34%를 기록했다.

엔지니어링 제품 부문은 자체 성장률이 2% 감소했다. 견조한 항공우주 및 방산 부품 수요는 유럽 차량 서비스 물량 감소에 의해 상쇄되었다. 우호적인 제품 구성과 비용 통제 덕분에 이익률은 안정적인 수준을 유지했다.

도버는 리테일 주유, 극저온 부품, 미국 유량계, 아시아 일회용 바이오제약 부품, 우주용 무선 주파수 장비, 프린터 및 잉크 생산, 특수 케이스, 대형 열교환기 등의 신규 생산 능력 확보를 위한 투자를 지속했다. 상당수 프로젝트는 2027년 1분기 말까지 가동될 것으로 예상된다.

당사는 또한 8월에 클로에런 인수를 완료했으며 라이스퉁 거래는 4분기에 완료될 것으로 예상된다. 클로에런은 압출 다이, 피드블록 및 30만 제곱피트 이상의 미국 내 생산 능력을 추가한다. 라이스퉁은 인도의 극저온 부품 생산 능력을 제공할 예정이다.

경영진 가이던스

도버는 2026 회계연도 전체 실적 전망을 이전 제시 범위의 상단으로 좁혀 잡았다.

경영진은 도버의 역사상 현금 창출력이 가장 뛰어난 분기인 4분기에 잉여현금흐름이 더욱 증가할 것으로 예상한다.

2027년에 대해 경영진은 수주잔고, 구조조정에 따른 비용 절감, 인수 효과, 주식 수 감소, 식품 리테일 전환 비용의 예상 감소 등을 긍정적 요인으로 꼽았다. 도버는 정식 2027년 재무 가이던스를 제공하지는 않았으나, 기후 및 지속가능성 기술 부문의 이익률이 상당 부분 개선될 것이며 전년 동기 대비 이익률 개선은 1분기부터 시작될 것으로 예상된다고 밝혔다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 생산 능력 제약으로 인해 열교환기, 극저온 제품 및 일부 리테일 주유 시장에서 리드 타임이 연장되고 있다. 신규 생산 능력 확보에는 선제적 지출이 필요하며 가동률이 개선되기 전까지 이익률을 희석시킬 수 있다.
• 4분기 출하 시점은 고객사가 연말 운전자본을 관리할 수 있는 12월의 고객 납품 요청(call-off)에 부분적으로 의존한다.
• 식품 리테일 생산 증대 비용은 생산성과 고정비 흡수가 개선되기 전까지 연말까지 지속해서 상승할 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 물량이 계속 뒷받침된다는 가정 하에 2027년 1분기 말까지 전환 작업이 대부분 완료될 것으로 예상한다.
• 도버는 원자재 및 기타 원가 투입 요소에 대한 노출에 대응해 2027년에 앞서 일부 가격 인상 조치를 조기 시행했다. SWEP의 구리 익스포저는 공급업체 계약 가격 책정 메커니즘에 반영되어 있다.
• 경쟁사들 또한 생산 능력을 확장함에 따라 경영진은 데이터센터 수요의 지속 기간에 대한 불확실성을 인정했으나, 현재의 수주잔고가 자사의 투자 계획을 뒷받침한다고 설명했다.
• 일반적으로 더 짧은 기간 내에 수주 및 출하가 이루어지는 전통적인 단기 사이클 사업에서는 가시성이 상대적으로 제한적인 수준에 머물러 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

수주잔고 및 2027년 가시성: 경영진은 생산 능력이 제한된 시장의 고객들이 물량을 조기에 예약함에 따라 수주잔고가 평소보다 높은 수준이라고 밝혔다. 수주잔고는 전통적인 장기 사이클 사업보다는 주로 CO2 시스템과 SWEP 열교환기에 집중되어 있다. 도버는 또한 폴리머 가공 및 제캔 장비가 현재의 낮은 수준에서 회복될 경우 추가 상승 여력이 있을 것으로 보고 있다.

기후 및 지속가능성 이익률: 경영진은 2027년 이익률 증가폭을 수치화하는 것은 사양했으나 상당한 수준이 될 것이라고 설명했다. 이중 시설 비용 제거, 생산 라인 안정화, 과도한 인력 절감 및 물량 증가를 통한 고정비 흡수를 통해 개선이 이뤄질 것으로 기대된다.

데이터센터 냉각 용량: 도버는 SWEP의 주요 데이터센터 제품 라인의 생산 능력을 증대하고 있으며, 향후 중앙 냉각 시스템에서 냉매 분배 장치(CDU)로의 제품 구성 전환이 일어날 것으로 예상하고 있다. 경영진은 생산 프로세스가 고도로 자동화되어 있고 기술적 요구 수준이 높기 때문에 생산 능력 결정은 약 18개월 전에 내려져야 한다고 전했다.

자본 배분: 도버는 보충형(bolt-on) 인수에 대해 열린 태도를 유지하되 수익성 기준은 고수할 방침이다. 경영진은 자체 프로젝트가 인수합병에 맞먹는 매출 성장을 창출할 수 있다고 언급하며, 단기적으로는 주주 환원을 선호한다는 입장을 재확인했다.

리테일 주유 사이클: 경영진은 지하 탱크 장비의 공급 제약으로 인해 설비투자 사이클의 기간이 연장되고 있다고 말했다. 도버는 현재 이 사이클이 이전 전망이었던 3년과 비교해 최소 4년은 지속될 수 있다고 판단하고 있다.

금리: 고금리가 자본 계획 관련 사업에 영향을 미치고 있는지 묻는 질문에 경영진은 아무런 영향도 관찰되지 않았다고 답했다.

실적발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문(Transcript)

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전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Dover's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Executive -- Chief Executive Officer; Chris Woenker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jack Dickens, Vice President, Investor Relations. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with this term, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

I would now like to turn our call over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead, sir.

Jack Dickens

Thank you, Leslie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through November 12, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days.

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

Richard Tobin

Thanks. Jack. Good morning, everyone. Let's get started on Slide 3. Overall, it was a solid quarter. Organic growth accelerated to 7%, led by our secular growth markets and supported by durable demand across the majority of the portfolio. Bookings were the highlight in the quarter. Orders were up 16% year-over-year, with growth in all 5 segments. Book-to-bill was 1.03 for the quarter. Our backlog is up 35% versus this time last year, which supports our confidence in the forecast and provides very good momentum heading into 2027.

Adjusted EPS was $2.88 per share, up 10% in the quarter. We remain active on the capital -- on capital deployment, announcing 2 bolt-on acquisitions that add complementary capabilities, low-cost manufacturing and geographic breadth to our businesses. We also repurchased over $330 million of our shares in the quarter. We are narrowing our full year guidance towards the upper end of the range, with organic growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted EPS and from $10.60 to $10.75 per share, representing double-digit growth consistent with our long-term algorithm.

Let's go to Slide 5. Our secular growth markets now represent over 25% of our total revenue, up from 18% in 2024. Across the top of the slide, we show our expected growth rates in each of these markets this year. In total, these markets are a material driver of our overall revenue growth in 2026, and we expect that trend to continue in 2027. We have purposely built these platforms through R&D spending and new product development in our legacy businesses as well as through targeted M&A.

Our business model is unique. It allows us to pursue a variety of high-growth business opportunities across a range of secular themes, with several of our businesses participating in more than one. We have been able to deliver this growth by proactively adding capacity in advance to the market, which has allowed us to capture leadership positions. This has been particularly important in energy transition and power generation, CO2 systems, data centers and cryogenic components serving the energy and space markets. We have continued to invest in additional capacity in 2026 behind this demand strength, some of which we will detail in a subsequent slide.

These organic and inorganic investments have delivered high returns on invested capital despite the proactive upfront investments as the result -- as a result of high growth rates and margin profiles of these sectors. These businesses are technically demanding mission-critical applications where Dover tends to win. The vast majority of our acquisition capital over the past 5 years has been deployed in these markets, and they remain our top priorities from both an organic and inorganic investment.

Going to Slide 6. This slide underscores the breadth and duration of our order book. Trailing 12-month bookings were up 16%, well ahead of revenue growth at 8, and trailing book-to-bill has climbed to 1.08. Every segment has grown bookings faster than revenue over the past 12 months. That sustained order momentum has underpinned the top line acceleration we are seeing in 2026, and it gives us confidence in our outlook going forward. Importantly, our backlog is 35% higher than it was at this point last year and is up sequentially from Q2, with roughly half scheduled to ship in 2027. That gives us a solid foundation heading into next year with revenue visibility well ahead of where we would expect to be at this point in the planning cycle.

Moving to Slide 7. Engineered Products was down 2% organically. Demand for aerospace and defense components remained strong, was more than offset by lower volumes in European vehicle services. Margin was stable on favorable mix and cost controls.

Clean Energy & Fueling grew 12% organically, with solid shipments in new orders in clean energy components, fluid transport and North American retail fueling, which posted its strongest quarter in years. Demand for our cryogenic components in LNG and space launch infrastructure remains healthy, with several recent high-profile project wins. Margin was roughly flat as volume leverage was offset by production ramp in cryogenic product lines where demand is running ahead of capacity. We're actively expanding that capacity with additional output coming online in the first quarter of 2027.

Imaging & ID grew 2% organically, led by double-digit growth in serialization software and solid performance in core marking and coding. Consumables and equipment margins expanded 400 basis points to 33%, driven by volume leverage on largely fixed cost base and software growth in consumables, favorable geographic mix and foreign currency translation.

Pumps & Process Solutions grew 1% organically, with growth in AI and energy infrastructure, single-use biopharma and industrial pumps that was partially offset by lower volumes in polymer processing equipment where quoting activity is high. Margin expanded 70 basis points to 34% and solid conversion in industrial pumps and precision components and a higher mix of biopharma revenue.

Climate & Sustainability Technologies accelerated to 18% organic growth in the quarter. Shipments and order rates in brazed plate heat exchanges remain robust across all geographies and major end markets, with notable strength in liquid cooling for data centers which is initially concentrated in the U.S., but we are now seeing meaningful acceleration in Europe and Asia. Lead times remain extended and we are actively investing to double our global capacity for large heat exchanges through 2027.

CO2 refrigeration systems posted quarterly revenue -- posted record quarterly revenue with September reaching its highest output of the year in refrigerated door cases. The investments that we have added in Richmond, Virginia facility are ramping up. Line rates exiting third quarter were 15% higher than the second quarter. We expect another sequential increase in line rates and output in the fourth quarter. We also completed the consolidation of the door frame production in Sylmar, California at the end of the quarter.

Segment margin was 18%. Margins in heat exchanges were robust as volumes outrun the significant investments in capacity build. With direct labor, less than 10% of its cost base, this business converts incremental volume exceptionally well. Those gains in heat exchangers were offset by cost of ramping production simultaneously across CO2 systems, specialty cases and refrigerator door cases ahead of higher demand and shipment rates in 2027, which is reflected in our backlog. Heat exchangers should continue to benefit from [ via ] leverage in 2027, with a good portion of Q1 revenue already in backlog.

In food retail, we have absorbed roughly $40 million of costs year-to-date from investments and extra labor costs associated with the production ramp along with duplicate fixed costs of running 2 facilities for the throughput of 1. As line rates continue to ramp and as the roll-off of fixed cost accelerates through the balance of the year, margins in Climate & Sustainability Technologies are poised to improve meaningfully in 2027.

I'll pass it over to Chris.

Christopher Woenker

Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. Let's go to our cash flow statement on Slide 8. Year-to-date, free cash flow was $703 million or 11% of revenue, up $72 million over the prior year, driven primarily by increased operating cash conversion which more than offset working capital investments to support accelerating top line growth. Third quarter free cash flow was $383 million or 17% of revenue. We've taken up our full year CapEx guide for the year to reflect the organic investments we're making behind demand strength. Free cash flow accelerated in the third quarter, consistent with historical trends, and we expect a further increase in the fourth quarter, which is historically our highest cash-generating quarter. Our full year free cash flow guidance remains on track at 14% to 16% of revenue.

With that, let me turn it back to Rich.

Richard Tobin

Okay. I'm on Slide 9. Organic investment remains our highest return use of capital. On the left are our most meaningful projects. In support of our organic revenue trajectory, we have greenfield expansions underway in below ground retail fueling, cryogenic components, flow meters in the U.S. and single-use biopharma components in Asia, along with capacity investments in radio frequency equipment for space, printer and ink production and specialty cases in CO2 systems and large heat exchanges. Many of these projects will be online by the end of the first quarter of 2027.

On the productivity side, we are optimizing our vehicle services footprint, extracting synergies from our polymer processing acquisition and have now completed the footprint consolidation in food retail. These actions generate substantial carryover restructuring benefits which we will quantify when we provide full year guidance in January.

On the right side of the slide are the bolt-on acquisitions we announced in the quarter. Cloeren, which we closed in August, adds extrusion dies and feedblocks to our mag polymer processing platform, along with more than 300,000 square feet of U.S. manufacturing capacity close to the U.S. petrochemical and space launch infrastructure.

Leistung, which we signed and expect to close in the fourth quarter, gives our Clean Energy segment a low-cost state-of-the-art cryogenics components manufacturing presence in India. Both businesses carry excess capacity that other Dover operating companies will leverage its manufacturing hubs in highly strategic locations.

Moving to Slide 10. Our balance sheet remains a competitive advantage and our capital allocation priorities are unchanged. Organic investment generates our highest returns, and we are guiding full year CapEx of $200 million to $220 million, with the capacity and productivity projects I just covered delivering attractive returns into next year. We have committed approximately $80 million to our 2 announced acquisitions. And our pipeline remains active for bolt-on opportunities in high priority markets. We have also repurchased approximately $400 million of shares year-to-date, including $330 million in the third quarter, with over $3 billion of dry powder at quarter end. We have the ample flexibility to play offensive capital allocation and a near-term bias towards returning capital to shareholders.

Let's finish with Slide 11. We are moving our full year guidance towards the upper end of the range. Our focus is on finishing the year strong, and our order book gives us confidence in the forecast with momentum carrying into 2027. Alongside a constructive demand backdrop and a strong order book, we will benefit from carryover restructuring savings contributions from completed acquisitions, a lower share count and a roll-off of transition costs in food retail. We look forward to closing out the year strong and are confident as we enter 2027 from a position of strength.

Over to you, Jack.

Jack Dickens

Leslie, we can go right to the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Steve Tusa with Wells Fargo.

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Charles Stephen Tusa

Just on the backlog, I think it's like a little bit above $3 billion now, I kind of like go back, do the math. And I think you said 50% of that is like shippable for next year. Is there anything in kind of the non-backlog business that you look out to next year that you would be like worried about being unsustainable or dropping off at all?

Richard Tobin

I'd characterize it this way. I guess, where we have been capacity constrained is what's driving the backlog into 2027. So the duration of the demand is a good indicator because customers are basically getting in line to reserve that capacity.

It is not overly influenced from some of our more traditional long-cycle businesses. Maag's pretty much as a bottom, same with Belvac. So it's not -- those numbers aren't influenced by those 2 businesses. So that's actually upside the backlog build as we go into 2027. And then our traditional short-cycle businesses, we don't have a lot of visibility going into next year, and we'll just book and ship as we normally do between now and the end of the year.

Charles Stephen Tusa

Right. And is there any reason for the growth to like slow materially in 4Q? I know you kind of like guided that number. The midpoint is a bit of a slowing. Like anything stand out? I mean the orders have been pretty good, book-to-bill above 1 seasonally.

Richard Tobin

Yes, not really, other than the fact that Q4 is not always in our control, right? We've got the orders, we can make the orders, then it becomes a question at the end of the year whether those orders get called off by our customers or does everybody play a kind of managing the working capital gain at the end of the year. So we're always a little bit cautious because December could go almost either way in any given year. But there's nothing based on the trajectory that we see that's any slowing. It's pure calendarization.

Charles Stephen Tusa

Okay. One more. Just on the buyback you've done, $300 million or something like that. Are you done with that? Or is there still some of that -- you have a ton of cash, ton of capacity is -- can you [ queue ] through some of that?

Richard Tobin

Yes. I think in corporate speak, what we said is that our bias was still on capital return. So take that for what it is.

Charles Stephen Tusa

Great. I don't understand all corporate speak, but that's pretty clear. So I appreciate that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe

Maybe, Rich, could you just kind of give us a little kind of sense on the dual cost you called out, I think, $40 million of investment and deal cost that's now behind us. Maybe give us a sense on how you see CST margins in the fourth quarter, but more importantly, going into 2027. And you've said 20% margin target in the past for that segment. Are we on track for that in 2028?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Just for clarity's sake, it's the year-to-date headwind costs of the plant closure and the redundant labor that we've had to run as a result of that. And that's year-to-date, okay? So that number will actually probably go up between now and the end of the year because as line rates come up, we'll absorb that extra labor and then we'll begin to flip it over into productivity. So that's the $40 million.

Yes. I mean I think that we're well on track of meeting the targets that we put on that sector because of 2 things. Number one, that the carryover of not having those costs of consolidation between the 2 years is an add back. The volume across the segment goes up, and so the incremental margin of the fixed cost goes up along with it. So I think that's why I said that we can expect a material change in 2027 in the margin of that particular segment.

Nigel Coe

But no numbers?

Richard Tobin

Come on, Nigel. We're going to give you guidance when we get to the end of the year, but it's material.

Nigel Coe

Okay. You've said 20% of the past. I'm just trying to get a sense on that. But maybe -- can we just talk about the PPS orders -- sorry, not PPS, CST orders? Been strong for a long time now, no sign of slowdown. I'm just wondering maybe if you can just like try and give us another sort of second level detail on SWEP versus CO2 versus core refrigeration.

And I do want to get a sense on one number, Rich, 3% growth in data center this year is impressive. But I would think it'd be even more impressive just given the growth in the market. And I'm wondering if there's any capacity constraints within SWEP that maybe gets released in 2027?

Richard Tobin

Well, yes. I mean I think that if you go on the slide of our capital investments and if you go back and read the transcript of what I said, yes, we've been capacity constrained all year. It doesn't seem to be preventing the actual build-outs, but everybody is trying to get in front of securing the supply. So there's a lot of signaling effect in there. But we are basically ramping to double capacity into the main product line that's been growing. This is SWEP now, that's been sent into data centers. That will change over time because there'll be a shift between the central cooling system demand, which we see it now, into more CDU mix into the future, and we're taking that into consideration.

In terms of the backlog, I don't want to say 50-50, but it's dominated by CO2 systems demand and SWEP.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird.

Michael Halloran

So back to the backlog question on some level, what's the normal conversion ratio at this point? You have your backlog shippable next year. What does that normally look like? And maybe any thoughts on the lead times you're seeing in the industry and if those are starting to extend?

Richard Tobin

It is higher than average that we would see at this time. I said if we go back and read the transcripts, we would expect in a kind of, let's call it, a normal year, for book-to-bill to come down in Q3 just because of the order of magnitude of shipments. But because of the secular growth nature of some of these businesses that we're in, that customers in certain segments are securing supply, so trying to secure capacity, and so that they're ordering well in advance of what we would normally expect. And that's why we gave you the backlog figures, and that's why we tried to monetize how much of that is 2027 because that, in general terms, would not look like that except for the pace of the growth rate in some of those segments.

Michael Halloran

That makes sense. And on the buyback side, M&A side, obviously, it certainly makes sense that you're pushing more on the capital return time short term. But maybe what's just happening on the M&A side of things? Are you getting priced out of deals at this point? Has the activity slowed? Maybe just some thoughts there.

Richard Tobin

Yes. I mean the activity naturally slows in Q4. Very little comes to the market at the end of the year. So whatever has come to market is -- has come to market not to get into certain deals. Look, we've got return criteria that we stick to. So there are some things that we didn't get that we would have liked to get, but the purchase price that those assets sold forward above that criteria at the end of the day.

We'll see in 2027, but we've got a ton on our plate of organic investment, which is probably going to drive as much revenue growth as kind of bolt-on acquisitions would do. So we retain a posture of optionality, meaning that we'll participate in M&A. We've got some interesting stuff in the pipeline. But with all the cash that we're producing that we carried into this year and all the cash that we're going to produce this year, that clearly -- that our stance is now on capital return.

Operator

Our next question is from Joe O'Dea from Vertical Research.

Joseph O'Dea

Could you talk a little bit about pricing and what might be in the pipeline just with respect to the inflationary backdrop? It looked like the price this quarter was pretty similar to the second quarter, maybe a little bit tougher comp. But are you out there in the market and you need to do anything more on the pricing side -- to carryover into next year?

Richard Tobin

Yes, it depends, Joe. I mean we are actually have moved up pricing decisions this year and have been introducing pricing, which in a kind of a stable year of a low inflation environment, we'd kind of wait till the beginning of the year. We've actually accelerated that in certain instances depending on exposure to a variety of different things, whether it's commodity group metals or other things. So I think we're on the front foot of getting ahead of what anybody's view about price cost is going into '27. I think we're actually probably a full quarter in front of getting in front of that.

Joseph O'Dea

And then just another one on the food retail and the production ramp costs. As you think about full year being somewhere above 40, how much of that we can think about as being nonrepeat? Is there a carryover associated with it? Or do you think that those are all kind of contained costs that you'll be able to leverage...

Richard Tobin

It will -- so the speed is coming down as the volumes go up, right, you get the fixed cost absorption benefit. The balance of it is productivity. So it's just winding out kind of extra labor costs as you stabilize the line rates. So we would expect that to progressively get better over the balance of the year and then probably finish up by the end of Q1. But I don't expect the 40 or whatever it ends up being at the end of this year flows through in total going into next year unless volume drops. And based on our backlog right now, we've seen no indication of volume dropping in 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

Steven Winoker

What -- Rich, what happens in retail fueling when prices -- when fuel prices are up this much? Does that create a little bit more cash flow for these guys to invest in their businesses? Seems like that -- it's been a while since we've had a big jump like this. But what does $6 diesel and $4 dollar gas do for these folks?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Not to talk about our customers' profitability, which -- many of which are publicly traded. At the end of the day, earnings spread on fueling products have been up substantially over the past 18 to 24 months, and I don't expect that to narrow. The better news -- so that's great. We like healthy customers that are making a lot of money, number one. And number two, the good part of what we've seen about the CapEx is there is supply constraints in that particular market, and that is just lengthening the duration of what we believe the demand cycle is. So we knew we were coming into a CapEx cycle for a variety of different reasons. We now believe that, that is going to extend. I think we called it out 1.5 years ago, it was a 3-year cycle. It's probably going to -- we could probably argue it's going to be at least 4.

Scott Davis

And is that an area where you're able to get price because of that supply chain dislocation?

Richard Tobin

It's -- in terms of the amount of market participants, it is a market that we like.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

Andrew Kaplowitz

Rich, so DII margin, I think, was the best margin that segment is recorded. I know you mentioned mix productivity effects, but I think you've been working on structural cost actions in that segment. So when you think about DII's margins even more sustainable, closer to Q3 rates, or maybe was that more of a one-time bump?

Richard Tobin

Look, I look at year-to-date at the end of the day because it's our most global business, there's a lot running through that, that some of our other businesses don't have to deal with specialty FX and then mix because of the disproportionate difference in margin between the consumables and the equipment. So it will move around for that.

Having said that, if you go back and take a look over a 3- to 5-year period, we've steadily marched up the margin in that business through a variety of different measures. We're making some pretty significant investments. We built a brand-new plant in Poland this past year, and we're going to finish up on basically rebuilding our ink production in 2027, so we expect some productivity to come out of that. So yes, I mean, I wouldn't get all excited about the quarters -- this quarter's margin. But if you look at it on a year-to-date basis, that's entirely sustainable.

Andrew Kaplowitz

That's great. And maybe a similar question on Clean Energy & Fueling. If I look at Q3 year-over-year margin, it's a little bit more difficult than the first half. I know you talked about cryo space production ramp impacting margin. But maybe update us some of the platform you created in that business, that journey, I think you talked about the 25% margin. Where is that?

Richard Tobin

Look, we're tracking there, but we've been -- the opportunities that we found on the cryo side over the past 18 months, which is driving the top line, is requiring a lot of investment on our part. So that has got a little bit of a dilutive effect, but we'll take that trade-off any day, right? Because it's driving the top line and they are -- these are businesses with secular growth that once we go through the build phase, we can expect what we saw in SWEP over the last couple of years where we had margins that were down because investment was running forward than the revenue.

Now we've got the revenue in SWEP and so the incremental margin is robust. We'd expect that same kind of trajectory. And that's the reason that we put that slide in about all the organic investments that we're making is, it's not only to kind of explain what we think about the durability of the revenue increase, but it's to give you a signal of we're going to invest here, there's some cost of making those investments. But we believe, over time, the return on invested capital there will be excellent.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

We will move to our next question. Our next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with UBS.

Amit Mehrotra

Just maybe one quick one. SWEP lead times. Last time I checked in, they were like 25 weeks. Is that still the case? And I think that's where most of your copper exposure is, obviously, copper has come off a little bit, but sort of hit all-time highs in September. I think you have material pass-through on that. So no issue on price cost. Maybe you can enlighten me on that. But maybe there's a margin issue as copper rises in that business? Maybe you can talk about those 2 things?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Let's deal with copper first. I think that it is -- and we do have copper exposure there, but it's built into the pricing mechanism with our supplier contracts in SWEP. I don't know what lead times are off the top of my head. I mean, we're bringing on additional capacity sequentially through the year, but with a pretty big jump this quarter going into Q1, then it becomes a big debate of well, but the lead times keep going out because the orders keep coming in, in advance of that capacity build. Does that wind down in '27? Hard to say. Right now, we don't see it, but we are bringing on more capacity because the fact that we believe in the durability of the demand.

Amit Mehrotra

But it's not measured in years, it's measured in quarters, right?

Richard Tobin

Yes, yes. No, no, we're not -- it's not in years.

Amit Mehrotra

So I guess just my follow-up question, my clarifying question then. If I think about quarterly order in dollar terms over the last 3 quarters. So this year, sort of averaged $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion depending on the quarter. That's about 9%, 10% higher than the average quarterly revenue of this year. I'm sure you're going to tell me to curb my enthusiasm, but is that the wrong way to think about maybe the organic growth opportunity next year?

Richard Tobin

Let me answer it this way. We've given your book-to-bill. Against my own advice, we gave you the number of the backlog increase to get into the high-level math when you don't know what the duration is of the timing of those orders is a fool's game. I'm sure Jack can give you all kinds of clarifying questions, but I can't go there right now.

Amit Mehrotra

I guess that was my question about lead times, right?

Richard Tobin

Yes, yes. Look, I mean we're not losing share because of lead times, right? Because generally speaking, we're in very concentrated markets from a supply base. So those who bring on the capacity proactively tend to win, and that's why we've been investing in advance of some of this demand to the detriment of margins, by the way. But it's -- but they end up being good investments once they roll over and absorb the fixed cost. So we can see that in SWEP right now.

Operator

Our next question is from Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

David Ridley-Lane

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew. Clean Energy & Fueling, there's a comment that you're planning a greenfield expansion and below-ground retail fueling. I know that there is a regulatory or replacement cycle there for underground tanks, but adding capacity expansion suggests that you think this is kind of a multiyear durable cycle. Is that the right interpretation?

Richard Tobin

Yes. I think I answered it a minute ago to Scott. The -- there is capacity constraints and underground equipment to become into compliance on tanks. And that -- and because there's capacity -- by the way, we don't supply. But what that is doing is lengthening the duration of the demand because you can't get the tanks to do the work, right? What we're expanding in is all of the products that are around that where we see robust demand and our margins are quite good. So that's the way I would answer it.

David Ridley-Lane

And just a quick follow-up. Have you been hearing any impact from higher interest rates from any of your more capital planning type businesses? Is that something that's pulled up to your level?

Richard Tobin

None.

David Ridley-Lane

That's very clear.

Operator

Our next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

Joseph Ritchie

So Rich, look, the Slide 9 is great, right, gives you a lot of detail on your capacity expansions, organic investments, et cetera. I guess the question I have is as you -- as we're getting closer and closer to 2027, like how much does this set you up for growth beyond '27 based on what you know today? Or do you think there's going to possibly be additional capacity expansion beyond what you've already announced?

Richard Tobin

Well, I hope we have additional capacity expansion, but the capacities that we are laying in are for multiyear, especially the greenfields, right? I mean we're building -- greenfield is like building a new site, and we would never capacitize a new site for the next 12 months unless -- because you never get the return on capital there. So they're all -- have been sized on the initial investment for a multiyear duration. So in a way, if we have the same slide again next year and there are additional capacity on top of it, it's a great sign because it's just more demand than we've sized the initial investment. So right now, these investments we believe that we can capture our share of the market of the growth rates that I think that we showed you on Slide 5.

Joseph Ritchie

Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. And then going back to the question earlier about the $40 million and the $40 million potentially going higher as the year progresses. I guess, quick math, right, taking a look at your revenue year-to-date in CST, it's like -- that equates like roughly 300 basis points, if I'm doing the math right. So I guess the question I have is you get into 2027, like when would you expect to see a turn in CST margins and starting to -- obviously, you've been taking on these extra costs throughout the year and will continue. But I'm just curious when you would expect to be a turn based on what you know today?

Richard Tobin

I think that we will beat our comp in Q1.

Operator

Our next question is from Andrew Buscaglia with BNP Paribas.

Andrew Buscaglia

If you could -- just kind of tying this all together, I get -- sort of get the sense -- your outlook for '27 or your confidence in '27 has improved in the last few months. I mean just based on some of these higher-growth markets and like the visibility you have. Am I right in that, that's the core reason you're kind of sounding better on '27 or sounding positive on '27 or -- or Slide 6 sort of suggests like your underlying just kind of core markets are seeing some improvements cyclically. So I guess where is more of the confidence coming from? Is that high-growth stuff or like that core business?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Well, I mean, the slides are put in there for a reason, and it's the trajectory growth rates on where we've been investing, have -- I mean, we're looking at, I don't know, what did we say, 500 basis points of improvement over the past 24 or not even 24 months, 20 months. So that we're good there. And we have a data point in terms of orders and backlog earlier this year than we would have in a normal year. So growth -- where we've chosen to participate, those markets are performing well. And the customers that we have across the broader portfolio are beginning to order into 2027 for a variety of reasons that we usually are kind of cautious until we get into giving full year guidance because usually, we don't have that kind of visibility.

Andrew Buscaglia

Yes. That's the sense I get. Okay. And then just on the heat exchanger side, you talked about -- you sort of said you hope you have more capacity investments because I mean things are probably going well. What are capacity requirements like heat exchangers, in your opinion? And then just given the really strong growth we're seeing in that data center cooling side, what's the competitive dynamics there? That's always been sort of a risk that you're not alone in identifying this growth in -- yes, if you could kind of comment on that too, please?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Everybody wants to be in data centers. I see the M&A presentations all the time. Look, this is -- that's a highly automated process. You need to make capacity decisions 18 months in advance before them coming online. So this is not kind of hire a bunch of people and get bigger throughput. It's actually very little people in the process. And so it's a very highly engineered -- probably one of the most highly engineered products that we have in the entire portfolio.

It's a very concentrated market, but those competitors that we have, if you went and looked, are also announcing capacity expansion. So I don't -- I think that we've done a very good job of proactively investing in capacity in advance of the market to the detriment of margins in the past. So we'll get our fair share here.

But I can't disagree with you. I mean everybody wants to be in data center. So you've got to be -- we're going to find out altogether about the duration of the demand. Right now, I don't think we're getting over our skis just because our backlog says what it is, and we believe there is going to be a conversion into more CDU mix than we see now. But I think that we're positioned competitively and from a capacity point of view, appropriately.

Operator

Our final question comes from Brandon Knutson, Morgan Stanley.

Brandon Knutson

Just a quick follow-up on CST mark. So you said it's going to be stronger -- growth from -- flat. A lot of that...

Jack Dickens

Brandon, we're having a hard time hearing you. Are you far away from the microphone?

Brandon Knutson

Hello?

Jack Dickens

Hey, can you hear us, Brandon?

Brandon Knutson

Yes. Can you hear me?

Jack Dickens

Yes, we can hear you now. Go ahead.

Brandon Knutson

CST, you saw strong growth accelerate the margins...

Richard Tobin

Brandon, you're cutting out. You know what, give Jack a call, he'll get to you. But -- you're cutting in and out.

Jack Dickens

Okay. I think we can wrap up the call, Leslie.

Operator

That concludes our question-and-answer period and Dover's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.