XP 2026년 2분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 기업 성장 가속화로 매출 8% 증가

XP Inc.는 주식, 펀드 및 강력한 법인 부문의 성장에 힘입어 2026년 2분기 매출, 이익, 수익률이 상승했다고 발표했습니다. 다만 확대된 신용 스프레드, 시가평가 손실, 부진한 부채자본시장 활동으로 인해 실적은 일부 제한되었습니다.

주요 요약

• 총매출은 51억 헤알로 전년 동기 대비 8%, 전분기 대비 3% 증가했습니다. 조정 순이익은 5% 증가한 14억 헤알을 기록했습니다.
• 조정 EBT는 전년 동기 대비 15%, 전분기 대비 10% 증가한 16억 헤알을 기록했으며, 조정 EBT 마진은 32%로 확대되었습니다.
• 고객 자산은 전년 동기 대비 17% 증가한 약 2조 2,000억 헤알에 달했습니다. 순신규자금은 리테일 부문의 200억 헤알을 포함해 총 280억 헤알을 기록했습니다.
• 홀세일 매출은 법인 매출이 117% 증가한 데 힘입어 전년 동기 대비 32% 성장했습니다. 발행자 서비스는 채권 발행이 급감하면서 압박을 받았습니다.
• XP는 바젤 비율 20.3%, 보통주자본비율(CET1) 17.1%로 이번 분기를 마감했습니다. 경영진은 목표 바젤 비율 범주인 16%~19%로 이동함에 따라 추가적인 자본 환원이 이루어질 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 경영진은 시장 상황에 따라 변동될 수 있으나 2026년 동안 두 자릿수 성장을 달성한다는 목표를 유지했으며, 연간 효율성 비율은 전년과 거의 비슷한 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상합니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

리테일 매출은 39억 헤알로 증가했습니다. 주식 매출은 거래 활동 감소에도 불구하고 전년 동기 대비 11% 증가한 약 11억 헤알을 기록했습니다. 전분기 대비로는 일평균 거래량이 약 8% 감소한 것과 비교해 주식 매출이 2% 감소했습니다.

펀드 플랫폼 매출은 운용 수수료 및 성과 수수료 반영에 따라 전년 동기 대비 23%, 전분기 대비 7% 증가했습니다. 기타 리테일 부문은 유동성 자금, 글로벌 플랫폼 및 외환 부문의 수혜를 입었습니다.

채권 부문은 여전히 제약 요인으로 작용했습니다. 경영진은 상반기 시가평가 영향을 약 4억 2,000만 헤알로 추정했으며, 1분기에 3억 헤알 미만, 2분기에 약 1억~1억 6,000만 헤알이 발생했다고 밝혔습니다. 이 효과를 제외하면 2026년 상반기 리테일 매출은 15% 성장했을 것입니다.

채권 상품 구성도 수익률이 낮은 상품 위주로 이동했습니다. 수수료율(take rate)이 낮고 듀레이션 기반의 선급 수수료 대신 일별 이자가 발생하는 방식인 일일 유동성 상품이 채권 플랫폼 판매의 거의 70%를 차지했으며, 이는 3~4분기 전 약 30%였던 것과 대비됩니다.

홀세일 매출은 전년 동기 대비 32% 성장했습니다. 파생상품, 외환, 신용 상품의 교차 판매에 힘입어 법인 매출은 전년 동기 대비 117%, 전분기 대비 22% 증가했습니다. 경영진은 현재의 법인 매출 수준이 지속 가능하다고 설명했으며, 3분기에도 견조한 실적이 유지될 것으로 예상했습니다.

발행자 서비스는 시장 상황 여파로 신규 채권 발행, 특히 비과세 상품 발행이 줄어들면서 약세를 보였습니다. 경영진은 3분기 부채자본시장(DCM) 활동이 2분기보다는 회복세를 보이고 있으나, 최근 수준 및 2025년에 기록한 사상 최대치에는 미치지 못한다고 밝혔습니다.

XP의 당기 말 활성 고객 수는 전년 동기 대비 1% 증가한 480만 명, 자산관리사 수는 1% 증가한 1만 8,400명을 기록했습니다. 순고객추천지수(NPS)는 66으로 개선되었습니다. 수수료 기반 자산 관리 계약은 고객 자산의 26%를 소폭 상회하는 수준을 나타냈습니다.

회사는 결제 대행, 카드, 담보 대출 등을 포함한 중소기업(SME) 플랫폼을 확장하고 있습니다. 해당 플랫폼은 9월 1일에 정식 가동될 예정입니다. 경영진은 SME 대출이 주로 담보, 매출채권 또는 정부 지원 프로그램을 통해 담보화될 것임을 강조했습니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 핵심 버티컬 부문의 실행력과 매출 기반 다변화에 힘입어 2026년 동안 두 자릿수 성장을 지속적으로 목표로 하고 있습니다. 전망은 시장 상황과 채권 발행 파이프라인의 회복 여부에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다.

XP는 분기별 평균 약 200억 헤알의 리테일 순신규자금 유입이라는 자체 완곡한 목표(soft target)를 재확인했습니다.

2026년 전체에 대해 경영진은 효율성 비율과 보수 비율이 전년과 거의 비슷한 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 명목 비용은 매출 계절성, 보너스 충당금, 기술 투자 및 Expert 행사 관련 비용으로 인해 하반기에 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

경영진은 XP가 신규 사업과 유통 채널에 지속적으로 투자하고 있기 때문에 확약사항은 아니지만, 2027년에도 효율성 비율이 전년과 거의 동일하게 유지되는 것이 합리적인 가정이라고 말했습니다.

회사는 바젤 비율을 목표 범위인 16%~19% 수준으로 낮출 계획입니다. 경영진은 주가 상황에 따라 비중이 결정되겠지만, 배당 및 자사주 매입을 통한 2026년 주주 환원율이 50%를 상회할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

리스크 및 핵심 주안점

• XP가 상반기 중 관련 트레이딩 및 웨어하우징 포트폴리오의 규모를 줄였음에도 불구하고, 신용 스프레드가 확대될 경우 추가적인 시가평가 손실이 발생할 수 있습니다.
• 부채자본시장의 발행 물량이 과거 수준을 밑돌면서 발행자 서비스 및 발행시장 수수료 매출이 제한되었습니다.
• 단기 듀레이션 및 일일 유동성 상품에 채권 판매가 집중되면서 수수료율(take rate)에 지속적인 압박이 가해졌습니다.
• 글로벌 지정학적 긴장과 잔여 시장 변동성이 신용 스프레드와 투자자의 위험 선호도에 영향을 미쳤습니다.
• 하반기 비용은 계절적 보상, 기술 지출, Expert 행사 등으로 인해 명목 기준으로 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 법인 부문의 성장에 따라 신용 위험가중자산이 증가했으나, 경영진은 신용 및 담보 요건에 대해 보수적인 접근 방식을 유지하고 있음을 재확인했습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 XP가 여러 거래 시장에서 상당한 점유율을 보유하고 있어 변동성 확대가 기관 및 리테일 트레이딩 매출을 뒷받침할 수 있다고 밝혔습니다. 거래량이 증가할 경우 하반기 해당 부문에서 더 높은 매출이 발생할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

자본 환원과 관련하여 XP는 10억 헤알 규모의 자사주 매입을 완료했으며, 추가로 10억 헤알의 한도를 보유하고 있습니다. 지난 6월에 지급된 약 5억 헤알의 배당금과 합쳐 발표된 2026년 자본 환원 규모는 총 25억 헤알에 달합니다. 또한 XP는 발행 주식 수의 약 2.3%에 해당하는 약 1,180만 주의 자사주를 소각할 계획입니다.

경영진은 재무제표를 활용한 공격적인 대출 확대로 전략을 전환할 계획은 없다고 밝혔습니다. 홀세일 및 SME 신용 대출은 담보, 포트폴리오 품질, 위험 조정 수익률을 중시하면서 점진적으로 확대할 예정입니다.

특히 인공지능(AI), 서버, 클라우드 인프라 부문에서 기술 지출이 증가했습니다. XP는 디지털 리테일 고객을 위한 AI 어드바이저를 출시할 계획이며, 2027년 해당 부문의 고객 성장이 가속화될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Andre Parize

Good evening, everyone. I'm Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer at XP Inc. Welcome, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter '26 earnings call. Today's presentation will be delivered by our CEO, Thiago Maffra, and our CFO, Gustavo Alejo. Right after the presentation, they will be both available for the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Live translation in Portuguese is available, you can enable it by clicking the button below.

Before we begin, please take a moment to review the legal disclaimer on Page 2 of today's presentation, which addresses forward-looking statements. The full presentation is available for download on our Investor Relations website, and you'll find additional materials in the SEC filings section of our IR website.

Now I hand it over to Thiago Maffra. Good evening, Maffra.

Thiago Maffra

Thank you, Andre. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2026 earnings call. I would like to begin by welcome Gustavo Alejo, our new CFO. He joins us at an exciting time just after the biggest Expert in our history and even that showed how far we have come and how much further we aim to go. Now let's dive into our second quarter 2026 numbers.

Beginning with the key highlights of the quarter. Client assets combining AUM and AUA reached BRL 2.2 trillion representing a 17% year-over-year growth. We ended the period with 18,400 advisers, up 1% year-over-year, while our active client base totaled 4.8 million, a 1% increase year-over-year. Gross revenues amounted to BRL 5.1 billion this quarter, up 8% from the same period last year. EBT advanced 15% to BRL 1.6 billion, while net income came to BRL 1.4 billion, rising 5% year-over-year.

In terms of profitability, our ROE increased 80 bps sequentially to 22.5%. Our capital ratio stood at a comfortable 20.3%, reflecting our ability to grow while maintaining disciplined capital and risk management. Also, our EPS grew 9% year-over-year, stronger than our net income growth, thanks to our capital management and payout strategy.

The second quarter of 2026 was again marked by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and residual market volatility. While these headwinds materialize with less intensity than in the previous quarter, they still impacted our results, particularly through the widening of credit spreads and a reduction in primary DCM offerings.

Without these effects, we would have achieved double-digit revenue growth with a low teens expansion year-over-year. This demonstrates that despite the market volatility we faced in the first half of the year, our core businesses continued to perform well with resilient underlying momentum. Towards the end of the quarter, we began to see signs of normalization across markets, along with a gradual recovery in the fixed income pipeline. We expect this pipeline to materialize into primary offerings over the coming quarters, depending on the market dynamics.

That said, depending on how these dynamics evolve, we continue to target double-digit growth throughout 2026, supported by stronger execution across key verticals and a more diversified revenue base. This quarter, we continued to launch products for both individuals and businesses, and our ecosystem is becoming more complete every day. We have a clear ambition to be the investment leader in Brazil by 2033 but that leadership will come hand-in-hand with increasing completeness in everything we offer to clients, this next growth phase is built on personalized service with a focus on financial, tax, and succession planning. Our goal is simple, to be our clients' CFO covering their full spectrum of financial service needs.

Moving on to the next slide. Let's take a look at client assets. During the second quarter of 2026, our total client assets combined with assets under management from our asset management business and AUA from our fund administration business totaled approximately BRL 2.2 trillion, representing 17% growth year-over-year.

On the right side of the slide, you can see how net new money has evolved. In the second quarter of 2026, we again met our soft target of BRL 20 billion retail net new money, while corporate and institutional inflows came in at BRL 8 billion. Altogether, net new money amounted to BRL 28 billion for the period. While we posted positive results and met our soft guidance, we continue to navigate a challenging environment in 2026. We are constantly improving our investment platform. And as we have mentioned, enhancing the client experience through numerous initiatives.

This combination reinforces our confidence in achieving our ambition of roughly BRL 20 billion in retail net new money per quarter on average. Related to that, it's worth mentioning that our NPS ended the second quarter at 66 points. As mentioned in our previous earnings call, we are on a consistent recovery path from the one-off events that impact us in former quarters. This demonstrates the strength of our brand and the trust clients place in our platform and it gives us an indication that we will return to historical levels over the next quarters.

With that, let's now take a deeper dive into the strategic drivers that are shaping our next growth phase. Our comprehensive financial ecosystem is built around long-term relationships. We provide service and personalized advice with excellence across every aspect of our clients' financial lives from investments to banking solutions.

Many of our clients have needs well beyond investments, and our mission is to provide them with complete solutions. Under this model, the focus shifts from product distribution to building a personalized financial strategy for each investor. Looking ahead, we see the role of the investment adviser at XP undergoing a profound transformation. The professional is no longer just an intermediary of financial products but it's taking on a role closer to that of a wealth consultant broadly accompanying clients throughout their financial journey.

Given this context, it's crucial to understand personal and family goals such as retirement and long-term wealth building. The same client-centricity logic that guides us on offerings from individuals also extends to our corporate clients. We have recently launched new initiatives targeting the business segment, always focused on delivering financial management solutions. We already have a very robust corporate segment, and now we are expanding our offering, particularly for a small- and medium-sized enterprise.

As we have said over the past few quarters, XP is uniquely positioned for this new market environment. We have the largest and most qualified adviser network in Brazil, along with a trusted brand and an innovative DNA, a combination that enables our tech lead scaling and keeps us ahead of the market.

On the next slide, we share further details on our strategy. Across every client segment we serve, our ambition is to deepen relationships, enhance the completeness of our product offering and fully meet all of our clients' financial needs. On the individual side, our focus remains on investments. We continue to deepen our segmentation, offering a specific value proposition for each client layer. We were the first to address a latent market demand and offer a truly model agnostic approach. Today, we have evolved this concept to a comprehensive wealth planning model, one that allow us to cover our clients across all their financial needs from investment allocation to estate planning, succession, and beyond.

Under this model, the charging structure naturally aligns as a fee based which continues to gain traction. We already have slightly more than 26% of our clients' assets under this framework. On top of that, we are expanding our offshore investment capabilities, and making continued progress on new product launch, including ETFs and managed portfolios, all fully aligned with our way of serving clients.

At the same time, we are adding credit to a solution shelf that has already expanded meaningfully over the past few years, during which we introduced numerous innovations in banking and insurance. I would like to emphasize that this expansion is the continuation of a well-planned strategy, one that has been consistently executed over the years with the addition of services and solutions.

For businesses, the same logic holds true, and this is where we see the greatest opportunity since these companies and their founders have long been underserved by traditional players. We plan to change that by delivering a complete, modern, and scalable offering. Just as we transform the investment landscape for individuals, we are now about to do the same for businesses. We introduced a new standard of high-quality advice, supported by technology and a complete range of products and service designed to tackle the real pain points of a market that has never been fully served. By advising these entrepreneurs with the same depth we bring to individuals, we can help them manage and allocate their cash flow more effectively to grow their businesses.

We are now expanding and upgrading our commercial coverage while launching new features for businesses. We recently announced partnership for a POS device and a credit card geared towards small- and medium-sized enterprise. These are natural extensions of our franchise and a continuation of our strategy that has been underway since 2019 when we obtained our banking license.

Finally, I want to emphasize that we'll execute this strategy with the utmost discipline, ensuring that every step we take remains firmly aligned with our capital ratios and conservative risk approach.

With that, I will now hand the call over to Alejo to cover the financial section of the presentation.

Gustavo Viviani

Thank you, Maffra. It's a pleasure to be here with all of you today. I would like to begin by expressing my sincere appreciation for the warm welcome since joining XP. I'm thrilled to be part of this journey, and I'm looking forward to contributing to our next chapter of growth.

Now let me walk you through our financial performance for the quarter. Total gross revenue in the second quarter 2026 reached BRL 5.1 billion, up 8% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter. Retail growth in the quarter was driven by equities, funds platform, new verticals and other retail, which expanded at a rapid pace year-over-year.

The Wholesale Bank division also delivered consistent growth, led by solid performance of our Corporate segment. Now let's move on to Retail revenue. Retail revenue totaled BRL 3.9 billion in the quarter, representing an 8% growth year-over-year and a 3% growth quarter-on-quarter, reflecting the impact of fixed income, corporate credit in Brazil already explained. Excluding this mark-to-market effect, Retail revenues would have grown 15% in the first half of 2026 when compared to the same period last year, showing a resilient underlying momentum.

Even with the lower ADTV of equities and futures in second quarter, equities revenue increased 11% when compared to the same period of last year, reaching almost BRL 1.1 billion. Sequentially, Equities revenue dropped 2%, while ADTV fell approximately 8% in the same period. Funds platform also posted a strong performance this quarter, growing 23% year-over-year and 7% sequentially, due to the booking of management and performance fees this quarter. Also, retail annual performance benefited from stronger contributions from new verticals, and different revenue lines included in other retail, like floats, international platform, and FX.

Now let's move on to the next slide, where we'll cover how our Wholesale Bank is evolving. Our Wholesale segment, including Corporate, Issuer Services, and Institutional revenues grew 32% year-over-year and 3% sequentially. The market deterioration that began in March and prevailed through April, combined with the lower risk appetite from investors, led to a sharp decrease in the number of new fixed income offerings, particularly tax-exempt fixed income instruments. The reduction in fixed income offerings weighed directly on our Issuer Services segment, resulting in lower revenues versus both prior year and the previous quarter.

Despite this reduced number of offerings, the Corporate segment posted another strong result, with revenues growing 117% year-over-year and 22% sequentially. Our ability to cross-sell and deliver a broader set of solutions to our Corporate clients, such as derivatives, FX, and credit continued to support our revenue growth.

Finally, our Institutional business grew year-over-year and was relatively flat sequentially. Like retail equities, the segment reflects lower trading volumes during the quarter.

Now let's shift our focus to SG&A and efficiency ratios. Our SG&A totaled BRL 1.6 billion in the second quarter, increasing 5% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter. On the right-hand side of the slide, our last 12 months efficiency ratio stood at 34.3%, an increase of 30 basis points year-over-year and a decline of approximately 30 basis points sequentially. This quarter, we delivered a good efficiency ratio against a more challenging revenue backdrop. As we move into the second half of the year, we expect the typical effects that lift both revenues and expenses, such as bonus provisions and the Expert event. Despite these effects, we continue to closely monitor the pace of our investments, and we still target to deliver a flattish efficiency ratio on a year-over-year basis for full year.

Moving to earnings before taxes now, our adjusted earnings before taxes totaled BRL 1.6 billion in the second quarter 2026, up 15% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter. We delivered 32% adjusted EBT margin expanding on both a quarterly and a yearly basis. Lower mark-to-market impacts, positive performance across several of our segments, and controlled expenses all contributed to operating leverage which resulted in a higher EBT and EBT margin this quarter.

On the next slide, we present our net income. Adjusted net income reached BRL 1.4 billion in the second quarter representing a 5% increase compared with both the prior year and the prior quarter periods. Net margin was 28.3% in the second quarter 2026 up around 50 basis points sequentially and down around 100 basis points year-over-year. And our tax rate for the quarter was sequentially higher due to the mix of results, stronger performance results from the Corporate line, and less negative mark-to-market impacts from the warehousing book.

Now let's move on to the next slide to talk about our earnings per shares and returns. Our adjusted diluted earnings per shares increased by approximately 9% year-over-year at a faster pace than our net income growth, reflecting the execution of our share buyback program. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see our adjusted annualized return on tangible equity and return on equity. Given our lower Basel ratio, sequentially, both metrics are higher this quarter when compared to the previous one.

With that, I move on to the next slide to talk about our capital management strategy. During the second quarter, we continued executing our share buyback program. As of the end of June, we have executed BRL 1 billion and close the previous buyback program. We still have another open program of BRL 1 billion, which we continue to execute strategically. Combining the 2 buyback programs and approximately BRL 500 million in dividends distributed in June, we reached nearly BRL 2.5 billion in capital distribution already announced in 2026.

Additionally, I would also like to announce that we will be canceling approximately 11.8 million treasuries shares, represent roughly 2.3% of our total outstanding shares, further reinforcing our commitment to disciplined capital allocation and returning value to our shareholders.

Now let's move on to the second part of our capital management strategy on the next slide. I'd like to turn to our capital ratio and risk-weighted assets. We closed the quarter with a Basel ratio of 20.3% and a CET1 ratio of 17.1%. As mentioned in our previous earnings calls, throughout 2026, we will operate the business with a high Basel ratio. However, we are comfortable bringing it down to our target range of 16% to 19%, while still maintaining a comfortable capital buffer.

On the right-hand side of the slide, we show our RWA. The main growth driver was credit RWA, mostly associated with our Corporate business. It's worth noting that while total RWAs grew around 26% year-over-year, our corporate revenues expanded 117% over the same period. This shows that we will continue to evaluate and seize growth opportunities as they arise while maintaining our focus on risk return criteria.

And with that, we can move on to the Q&A section.

Andre Parize

Daniel, please go on.

질의응답

Daniel Vaz

Alejo, welcome aboard. I hope you the most success in XP. I'd like to hear a little bit more about volatility and I guess, we're heading into an election period, and I'll be curious to hear what your expectations for the volatility and your revenues, mostly if you could break down into the Retail revenues and also for the Corporate cost. Corporate, we are seeing a very strong first half. You delivered close to BRL 1.1 billion. So trying to understand whether that's a level on the Corporate side that could even go higher compared to the first half of the year as you have more opportunities for maybe sell, hedging, derivatives effects and also protection for rates ahead of the October and November election period? And also, so breaking down in Retail and Corporate would be very good to hear about that. Thank you.

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for your question Vaz. This is Thiago. Yes, about volatility. It's important to mention that usually, when we have a high volatility, it's positive in terms of volumes and revenues for some businesses, especially when we look the Institutional desks or Retail trading clients, if volumes pick up, as we have for most of the markets between 30% and 50% market share. If volumes pick up, we make more money.

So yes, when you look -- especially just 2 business lines, Institutional and Retail traders, we expect higher revenues in the second semester. About Corporate revenues. I believe we have been investing on this business since 2021. So the business has been growing year-over-year on a very conservative way. So for example, we had this year a lot of credit events. We didn't have any exposure for these names. So we have a very high-quality credit portfolio. The derivative business is growing, energy among FX and a lot of other business they are growing. So we believe this level of corporate business, it's a normal level for the future, okay? I know it was very strong, but we expect that Q3 also is strong for Corporate. So it's part of the business that's growing, okay? So it's a normal level looking forward.

Andre Parize

Okay. Next question is from Eduardo Rosman from BTG.

Eduardo Rosman

I have a couple of questions here about the Wholesale Banking business. If you can share with us your expectations on how relevant this business could become within XP as a whole, over the next few years. If you think you already have the right teams and all the alignment in place to expand the lending business, if not, what's still needed to get there? And finally, if you could share your view about payout ratio medium-term, right? I think in the short-term, I think you mentioned you still expect to pay more than 50% in the form of dividends and buybacks. But given that you expect to use more of your balance sheet in the future? Should we expect any change in that?

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for the question, Rosman. Taking the first question about the wholesale, we don't have any change in strategy, the strategy that we started 4 years, 5 years ago. So we will continue to grow step-by-step on the business. So we received a lot of questions. If Gustavo Ale, who was coming here, like to do -- because we are planning a shift on credit basis, but that's not the case.

Of course, he has a great background on different areas of banking, including the wholesale but also retail, as you can see, all the, I would say, banking business for both individuals and companies, they are growing in the past years, insurance as well. So the strategy is to complete the ecosystem and to serve our clients as a whole, and we will continue to do that. So you guys probably saw that we announced that we are launching a platform for SMBs. It's going live in September 1, okay, with cards acquiring credit with collateral and so on, a lot of different products.

So it's part of the evolution of the business. So there is no big shift in strategy. There is no big shift on credit. We are not going to start to grow the credit portfolio in a very different pace. So it's I would say more of the same. Of course, when we compare ourselves with the other banks, we still have a lot of room like to build new business lines to grow, but it's going to be step-by-step, always being cautious on credit, always being cautious on risk. So -- and about people, I would say that we have most of the people that we need most of the capabilities. Of course, as you know very well the company, we were born as a broker-dealer focus on individuals, focus on investments, so it took us, I would say, 4, 5 years to get to this point where we are comfortable on building new business lines.

We always can bring, and we are always looking to bring people that complement our capabilities and our skills. It's always going to be part of the business. And Gustavo Alejo, who is one of this example, for sure, he will help us not only on the wholesale, but also on the individual part, on investments, and on everything.

So yes, I believe we are ready to grow and to execute the strategy that we have been executing in the past years. Not sure, if you want to share something, Alejo, I'm saying that today, he's here listening but next time he will be up to speed. And it has been 2 weeks with us, and it has been great, a lot of like good discussions already. So I'm happy to have you here.

Gustavo Viviani

Well, I'm entering my third week, so -- in this great company. So I'm energized and genuinely pleased to be part of such remarkable growth story. So the strategy is written. We are not changing the strategy and just -- will be part of this growth story, so part of the team. I saw a very strong team focusing, and very strong metrics in terms of credit, so we have all set to keep growing at a good pace and with good profitability. Very good to talk to you again.

Thiago Maffra

And take your second question about payout. As we mentioned, we have guidance to get our BIS ratio between 16% and 19%. Today, we are above 20%, meaning that we will have like to distribute more capital throughout the year. We already executed BRL 1 billion buyback. We have another BRL 1 billion open that we are executing at these levels. We already executed BRL 500 million in dividends. So totaling and assuming that we execute the BRL 1 billion that's open, BRL 2.5 billion, I believe this year, we are going to be higher than 50% for sure. Otherwise, we don't get below 19%. So you can expect more buybacks or more dividends throughout the year, depending on the price that we have during the year. At this price, of course, we lean towards buybacks, more than dividends So that's the idea today.

Andre Parize

Okay, next question is from Mario Pierry from Bank of America.

Mario Pierry

Alejo welcome. Good luck to you. It's nice to be talking to you again. Let me ask you a question on what you talked about. The Retail revenues would have increased 15%, excluding the impact of the mark-to-market, so we are estimating that's about BRL 420 million impact on revenue in the first half of the year. Is that correct? Because I think we had discussed that the impact of close to BRL 400 million in the first quarter. So are we -- is it fair to assume that the impact in the second quarter was very, very marginal?

Thiago Maffra

It's Thiago here. I will take the question. So yes, your math is right. It was around BRL 420 million. I would say it was below BRL 300 million on the first quarter and the other part on the second. So I would say, BRL 100 million, BRL 150 million, BRL 160 million on the second quarter, okay? So those are the numbers.

Mario Pierry

That's clear. So Maffra, then when we look -- I would imagine, right, this is this was an impact on your fixed income revenues. So when I look at your fixed income fees. I get an average of about 89 basis points first half of '26 down from 99 basis points first half of last year. So is this primarily -- this drop is primarily because of a changing mix?

Thiago Maffra

Yes, there are 2 effects there, okay. The first one, what you mentioned, mix. We have never seen a mix so much concentrated on SELIC post-fixed instruments and with very short term duration, mostly on daily liquid products. So that's one of the biggest problems with fixed income revenues today. But there is also when we say that we lost more than BRL 400 million on mark-to-market. It's mainly on the book from our investment banking, okay?

And if you take into consideration that there was almost no market for DCM, for debt capital market, on second quarter, there was also a huge impact on the primary market fees. So the impact on the second quarter was almost the same of the same quarter if you consider the revenue we lost on primary market and the mark-to-markets on the secondary market. So it was a very low volume. We have done less in a quarter than we do in a month, okay, when you compare Q2 with Q1 okay? So it was a huge drop on primary market.

We're seeing that stabilizing again on Q3 on a lower level than in the past, but better than Q2, okay? So those are the impacts when you look, because remember, there is revenue split between primary market on retail and investment banking, and that's why the mark-to-market is there. So there are 2 impacts here.

Mario Pierry

Okay. And just clarification on this daily liquidity product, what percentage does it represent of your assets to your fixed income assets, roughly?

Thiago Maffra

Yes. We don't open the mix by type of product, but today, out of everything that we sell on the fixed income platform, I would say that almost 70%, it's on daily liquidity products, 70%, okay, 7-0. So that number was 30%, I would say, 3 quarters, 4 quarters ago, okay? So that's the -- it's a huge change on mix. And remember that when we sell a daily liquid CD or this kind of products, we get a daily accrual on a very low take rate. So you have 2 effects here. When you sell a corporate bond, you make duration times spread upfront, when you sell daily liquidity product, you get a daily accrual on a lower level. So it's a double impact here.

Mario Pierry

And you're not seeing any changes in the mix in the short-term?

Thiago Maffra

Not yet, if you look at the fund platform, we start to see more stable level. And it's early to say an improvement but we are seeing improvement on funds. But I believe we are close to the turning point here but early to say that we are already there.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

Daer Labarta

Alejo, also welcome. A couple of questions also. I guess following up on Mario's question on the mark-to-market. Great, I mean do you expect any more impact going forward? Do you think we're at a point that we can see Retail revenues growing around that 15% level going forward? Or could there still be more impact, right? Just to understand like what is the real like underlying growth of the Retail revenues that we can kind of factor in going forward?

And then second question, just -- there was a bit of a jump on the JV and associates, it was like about BRL 30 million, BRL 32 million higher than last quarter. Just was there anything significant there to highlight just to understand that jump?

Thiago Maffra

Thanks for the question, Tito. About your first question, we have reduced a lot our books because, remember, it's mainly from the primary book from investment banking and also from the -- what we call facilitation, the secondary trading flow book for retail clients, institutional clients.

So we have reduced a lot the book during the first half of the year. But it's part of the business. We still have a big book. Remember, we have 30% to 40% market share here on this kind of instrument. So we always keep a book, if we see another credit spread widening, the same size as happened in the past.

We are going to lose less than we lost in the first half because the book is smaller today, but we are going to lose something. We are not seeing the spreads there at the same level for, I would say, 2 months. It opens and close 5 bps, 10 bps. So that's not much, okay? But we -- you're seeing a stable level right now. Let's see if there is no big change. You should expect no mark-to-market provisions in the future. But again, the book is smaller, but it's part of the business. So I cannot guarantee that we are not going to lose or make money in the future, okay. Your second question was?

Daer Labarta

And the share of profit from JV and associates had like a BRL 32 million direct jump quarter-over-quarter.

Thiago Maffra

Yes. Remember that -- we have invested a lot of money on IFAs, on asset managers, and some other businesses in the past. Most of these businesses, they are growing. So you should expect this line to grow year-over-year. And there is a seasonality because remember, a part of this business, they are asset managers. Usually, you have performance fees at the end of the semesters. So that's what explains most of the increase there. But again, we put a lot of money on this business. They should grow over the years, okay.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Neha Agarwala from HSBC.

Neha Agarwala

Just a quick clarification on the cost side. You've shown very good control over costs, both in COGS and OpEx. Can we just dig a bit deeper to understand what are the key levers that you're using? And -- what can we expect in '27, where do you see additional room for optimization, if any? Or it will be more revenue play in '27?

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for your question, Neha. When we think about the -- our SG&A for the future, remember that at the beginning of the year, we said that you should expect flattish efficiency ratios, compensation ratios for the year. That's the case so far. Remember that there is a seasonality historically on our on our revenues.

And second half of the year is usually stronger than the first half, meaning that if we keep the same efficiency ratios, you should expect SG&A to grow nominally on -- in nominal terms on the second half of the year, okay? So on top of that, on Q3 we have Expert. So it's a big cost for us. So you should expect costs to pick up a little bit on second half. But again, you can expect flattish efficiency ratios and compensation ratios.

Neha Agarwala

And how should we think about '27 in terms of further room for cost optimization, should cost efficiency continue to remain flattish going into '27? Or do you see room for it to come down?

Thiago Maffra

I would say flattish is a good assumption but remember that we are building a lot of new business lines, new channels growing, so it's not a commitment that we will gain efficiency or be flat, but I would say flattish is a good assumption.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Marcelo Mizrahi from Bradesco.

Marcelo Mizrahi

Congratulations for the results. So my question is regarding the margin -- the gross margins also to understand. So the dynamic has been changing. So gaining margin on the fees, on the rebates, which is a dynamic of the channels. But we are seeing the gross margins pretty stable. So this quarter was pretty strong. Can we expect going forward, these gross margins going up in the next quarters with the dynamics of the mix that we -- probably the company will have in the next quarters. Thank you.

Thiago Maffra

Yes. We have a lot of operational leverage when we think about the business, and it's the same case when we think about the channels, okay? So when we look on the long run, you could expect gross margins to improve but remember that the mark-to-market also impact this kind of ratios because when we have like more than BRL 400 million on our top line that there is no correlation to our sales channels or to IFAs, it distorts a little bit the ratios, the company -- the commission ratios and so on. So that's the main explanation.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Pedro Leduc from Itau.

Pedro Leduc

Thanks, everyone. Congrats on navigating this challenging quarter. I want to go back a little bit to the SG&A side. I know you've been very clear about the seasonality in the second half. We can clearly see you investing here more behind people. But then I go back to a conversation we had earlier in the year that you are looking to revamp your tech-based, client facing, especially for massified or the base of the clients and where you were maybe losing a little bit of traction.

And when I think about this flat efficiency and you're paying out for more people, but you also have to boost the tech/AI-investment deck. So question is, are you being able to accommodate both here in these figures that you're talking about? And where are you in this upgrade that you meant to do in the base channel or service facing technology?

Thiago Maffra

Yes. Great question. When you look -- especially when you look at the first half of the semester, you see non-people SG&A growing a little bit more. And it's mainly technology, okay? So technology is growing a lot. And it's mainly concentrated on AI, on servers, cloud and so on. So we have been able to manage -- investing on these new technologies while maintaining the efficiency ratios.

And about the segment that you mentioned, we always talk about our -- when we simplify in 3 segments, the digital retail segment, the affluent clients, and the private bank clients. And you are right, we have been creating a value proposition for this retail digital clients in the past, I would say, more than a year. We are about to launch an AI adviser I would say, this month, or beginning of next month because today, as we have a more complete shelf of products, including banking, and insurance and so on, we are able to provide a good service and have a good unit economics which is a smaller ticket size clients. So you can expect, especially in 2027, the number of clients coming from this segment to accelerate. So I would say 2027, it's a good year to take a look on this segment.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Arnon Shirazi from Citi.

Arnon Shirazi

My question is still on expenses. When analyzing people expenses, I can see that salary has been increasing 23% year-over-year, while the headcount 13%, there's any change in compensation recently. Also, we see a lower magnitude of share-based compensation. Just trying to see the moving pieces here.

Thiago Maffra

It's hard to segregate salaries from bonds and total compensation and so on. So I would say the best way of looking is the compensation ratio because the mix of people is very different that we are hiring and so on. So look at the total compensation, I would say it's the best way of analyzing people costs, including also the RSUs and so on.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Guilherme Grespan from JPMorgan.

Guilherme Grespan

Two quick follow-ups on our side, Maffra. First one, just confirming Issuer Services. I think you mentioned that our primary markets has rebounded a little bit versus the second quarter but still at very soft levels compared to last year. I just want to confirm that's kind of the message for the third Q?

And then my -- my actual question is more a follow-up on the SME strategy going forward. You mentioned a little bit the credit card strategy. You have the POS partnership but specifically on the credit side of the business, what is going to be the strategy here? It's going to be credit plus working capital, the working capital, it's going to be with collateral or not? Do you plan to do government-related programs? Just want to understand the mindset for lending specifically.

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for the question. About the first question, yes, you're right. Q3, when we think about -- again, we are talking about debt capital markets, DCM, okay? If you look funds and other products, they are performing well, okay? So -- but when we look DCM that's a big chunk of our Issuer Service. It's better than Q2 but softer than the recent past or especially when we compare to 2025 that the volumes were all-time high, so it's recovering, but at a softer level, okay?

The second part, SMBs, yes, the strategy when we go to credit here. Remember that we are not aggressive even on corporate clients. So as we are going down, it's -- we are going to be even more conservative, okay? So it's always with collateral, yes, we are joining some government programs, other credits with collateral from cards, from other receivables, so it's always going to have some collateral, okay? Of course, we can have a very small revolving lines, but the main part here is with collateral and very low risk. So that's the strategy when we think about credit for these segments here. So not big risks, not clean. So we're going to go step by step here.

Andre Parize

Okay. Thank you, everyone. So here is the time that we're going to finish the call. Thank you for joining us today. We're going to keep in touch. Any further questions, the IR team is more than happy to address and see you next quarter. Thank you.