USANA（USNA）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：Hiyaの成長、EBITDA見通し下方修正

ユサナ・ヘルス・サイエンシズ（USNA）が発表した2026年度第3四半期の事業動向は強弱入り混じる結果となった。「コア・ニュートリション」の収益性向上や「Hiya」の成長加速が見られたものの、コア・ニュートリションの顧客数減少や「ライズ・ウェルネス」の売上低迷により相殺された。経営陣は現在、2026年度通期の売上高が9億ドルに迫り、調整後EBITDAは約7,700万ドルになると見込んでいる。

主要なポイント

• 2026年度通期の売上高は9億ドルに迫る見通しである一方、調整後EBITDAのガイダンスは従来の8,050万ドルから約7,700万ドルへ引き下げられた。
• コア・ニュートリションのアクティブ顧客数は前年同期比で8%減少した。経営陣は同部門の売上高を約7億4,000万ドルと見込んでおり、直近の見通しを1,000万ドル下回っている。
• 東南アジア・太平洋地域の売上高は、前四半期の13%減から回復し、前年同期比2%増となった。アクティブ顧客数は前四半期比で3%増加した。
• Hiyaの月間アクティブ登録者数は前四半期比で18%増加し、純増数は約2万9,500人となった。経営陣はHiyaの2026年度売上高見通しを1億3,000万ドルに引き上げた。
• 年初来の営業キャッシュフローは前年同期の2,600万ドルから4,500万ドルに増加し、フリーキャッシュフローは3,600万ドルに達した。四半期末時点のユサナの手元資金（現金）は1億7,900万ドルで、無借金であった。
• ライズ・ウェルネスのガイダンスは、クラブチャネル向け受注が引き続き予想を下回ったことや、発注時期のズレが売上に影響し続けたことから、再び引き下げられた。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

コア・ニュートリション

コア・ニュートリションは、イベント費用や報酬費用の減少により営業収益性が改善した。この改善の一因は、前年同期に計上された報酬プラン関連費用が一巡し、前年比の比較が有利になったことにある。

顧客動向は依然として低調だった。アクティブ顧客数は前年同期比で8%減少し、中華圏が売上高およびアクティブ顧客数の前四半期比での減少の大半を占めた。東南アジア・太平洋地域を除き、すべての地域で為替変動の影響を除いたベースで減収となった。

東南アジア・太平洋地域が主な改善要因となった。前四半期の13%減から売上高は前年同期比2%増に転じ、アクティブ顧客数も前四半期比で3%増加した。経営陣はこの改善について、現場リーダーとのエンゲージメント強化、複数市場におけるリーダーシップの刷新、およびインセンティブプログラムの奏功によるものとしている。

ユサナは、ブランド投資、新製品の投入、インセンティブプランの調整を通じて、新規顧客の獲得と維持を支援する計画である。新製品への取り組みは一部女性や子どもに焦点を当てており、2027年中の発売を見込んでいる。

Hiya

Hiyaは、顧客獲得コストが上半期の水準から低下したことで、前年同期比で増収に転じた。ユサナがデジタルマーケティング投資を増やしたことで、月間アクティブ登録者数は前四半期比で18%増加し、約2万9,500人の純増となった。

ターゲット（Target）とアマゾン（Amazon）の合算売上高は第2四半期から2倍以上に拡大したが、経営陣は比較対象となる母数が小さかったと指摘している。Hiyaはクリエイターやアフィリエイトのプログラム、TikTok Shopを通じた顧客獲得の拡大も進めている。

新規顧客に対して初回注文の割引やプレミアムな初期パッケージを提供するため、顧客獲得費用の増加が足元の利益率を押し下げた。経営陣は、Hiyaの継続率と顧客生涯価値は引き続き堅調であり、最近獲得した登録者が今後の四半期で業績に寄与するにつれて利益は改善する見通しであると述べている。同社によると、小売売上高はDTC（直販）チャネルよりも高い利益率をもたらすという。

ライズ・ウェルネス

ライズ・ウェルネスは、変動の激しいクラブチャネル向け受注により引き続き圧迫された。前年同期には再発しなかった「ライズ・バー（Rise Bar）」の大型受注が含まれていた一方、当四半期のクラブ向け受注は再び同社予想を下回った。

ユサナはクラブチャネル以外へのライズの販路拡大を進めている。経営陣は、2026年末までにターゲットや食品スーパーなど4,100の小売店舗で「プロテイン・ポップ（Protein Pop）」が取り扱われるようになると見込んでいる。プロテインとプレバイオティクス食物繊維を配合した「プロテイン・ポップ・バランス（Protein Pop Balance）」は9月にターゲットで発売され、2027年における同ブランドの最重要製品となる見通しである。

経営陣のガイダンス

経営陣は、2026年度通期の売上高が9億ドル近くに達し、調整後EBITDAは約7,700万ドルになると見込んでいる。従来の8,050万ドルからEBITDA予想を引き下げたのは、ライズの売上低迷やHiyaへの投資増加を反映したものであり、コア・ニュートリションの収益性向上によって一部相殺されている。

Hiyaについて、経営陣は第4四半期に売上高と調整後EBITDAがともに前四半期比で増加すると見込んでいる。この見通しは、第3四半期に増加した登録者が四半期全体を通じて寄与すること、ならびにターゲットやアマゾンでの勢いが引き続き拡大することを前提としている。

コア・ニュートリションの通期売上高は約7億4,000万ドルと見込まれ、2026年初頭に提示されたレンジ内にとどまるものの、アクティブ顧客数の減少により直近の会社予想を下回る水準となる。

ライズの見通しは、第4四半期に予定されている小売向け注文が計画どおりに出荷されることを前提としている。これらの注文が2027年度第1四半期にずれ込んだ場合、2026年度の売上高および利益は更新された見通しを小幅に下回る可能性があり、その分の貢献は2027年度に移行すると経営陣は述べている。

リスク要因と注視すべき分野

• コア・ニュートリションのアクティブ顧客基盤は、特に中華圏において依然として圧迫されている。
• Hiyaにおける高水準の顧客獲得投資は、四半期ごとのEBITDAおよび利益率に変動をもたらす可能性がある。
• ライズ・ウェルネスは一部クラブチャネルからの受注に依存しているが、経営陣はその性質について本質的にムラがあり、発注時期は自社の管理外にあると説明している。
• ライズは、より広範な小売流通網を構築する中で、売上総利益率の改善を引き続き最優先事項としている。
• Hiyaの無形資産の償却およびユサナのベンチャー事業の足元の業績は、税率面で引き続き逆風となっている。
• インセンティブプランの変更や新製品の投入による改善効果は、即座に現れるのではなく、徐々に蓄積していくと見込まれている。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

経営陣によると、コア・ニュートリションのインセンティブプランの初期の変更では、新規獲得を促し、新たなブランドパートナーがいち早く成功を収められるよう、プランの初期段階への報酬配分を重点化した。今後の調整では、維持率、ロイヤルティ、顧客生涯価値を高めるため、資格要件やインセンティブの支払い時期に焦点を当てる予定である。これらの変更は2027年中に段階的に導入される見込みである。

Hiyaについて、経営陣は顧客獲得コストの低下が第3四半期の登録者数の拡大を加速させる好機をもたらしたと説明した。この費用は初期の利益率を圧迫するものの、登録者が継続利用し、売上構成比における小売の比率が高まるにつれて収益性は改善すると同社は見込んでいる。また、Hiyaは2027年第1四半期初頭にクラブチャネルへ参入する計画である。

ライズ・ウェルネスについて、経営陣は変動の大きいクラブ向け受注への依存度を下げるため、ターゲットや食品スーパーにおけるより安定した小売基盤の構築を強調した。追加の製品も計画されているものの、当面は「プロテイン・ポップ・バランス」が製品展開の中心となる。

税務面について、経営陣はHiya、ライズ、その他のベンチャー事業における事業遂行力の向上が、時間をかけて実効税負担を軽減する主な機会になると指摘した。また、事業運営上の支援につながることを前提に、各市場において消費者に近い領域への支出を増やすことも検討している。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the USANA Health Sciences Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce speaker, Andrew Masuda, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Andrew Masuda

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us to review our third quarter results. Today's conference call is being broadcast live via webcast and can be accessed directly from our website at ir.usana.com.

Shortly following the call, a replay will be available on our website. As a reminder, during the course of this conference call, management will make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of our company. Those statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ perhaps materially from the results projected in such forward-looking statements.

Examples of these statements include those regarding our strategies and outlook for fiscal year 2026, uncertainty related to the economic and operating environment around the world and our operations and financial results. We caution you that these statements should be considered in conjunction with disclosures, including specific risk factors and financial data contained in our most recent filings with the SEC.

During today's call, we will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release. I'm joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Guest; our Chief Financial Officer, Doug Hekking; our Chief Commercial Officer, Brent Neidig; our Chief Operating Officer, Walter Noot; our Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Kathryn Armstrong; and other executives.

Yesterday, after the market closed, we announced our third quarter results and posted our management commentary document on the company's website. We'll now hear brief remarks from Kevin and Doug before opening the call for questions.

Kevin Guest

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to speak to the strategy we're executing, where we're seeing progress and where we still have work to do. Our earnings release and management commentary present the numbers for the business. So I'll focus on providing context for the numbers and then ask Doug to add more color on how our strategy is coming to fruition.

Overall, this was a mixed quarter, but one where I'm encouraged by the progress we're seeing with our strategy. Our strategy is to evolve USANA from a single channel direct selling company into a diversified omnichannel health and wellness company built on consumer acquisition and loyalty.

In Core Nutrition, we're working to increase customer acquisition and customer loyalty by investing in the USANA brand, bringing new products to market and further refining our incentive structure. Through Hiya and Rise Wellness, we're expanding our business to reach consumers at more venues where they already shop, including retail and Amazon. Our debt-free balance sheet lets us fund this expansion with discipline.

Let me start with what's working. In our Core Nutritional business, we generated improved operating profitability through lower event and compensation expenses. Part of that is favorable -- is a favorable comparison against compensation plan in the last year's quarter that did not repeat, but the cost base is in better shape, and that gives us a stronger foundation to invest from.

We also saw real improvement in Southeast Asia Pacific regions. Net sales grew 2% year-over-year after declining 13% last quarter. Active customers grew 3% sequentially and engagement among our field leaders has increased. It's one region and still early, but it's the improvement we're working on to generate elsewhere.

At Hiya, after a difficult year for digital advertising, results began to improve. The team has been diversifying how it reaches customers beyond a single advertising platform, building creator and affiliate programs and more recently, launching TikTok Shop.

As customer acquisition costs came down from the first half of the year, we intentionally invested in digital marketing to drive customer acquisition. Active monthly subscribers grew 18% sequentially, adding about 29,500 net subscribers and net sales returned to year-over-year growth. Target and Amazon net sales combined more than doubled from the second quarter, albeit from a small base.

Back-to-school seasonality helped and the added marketing investment pressured near-term margins. So we're staying measured, but the early results are encouraging. Hiya has historically seen strong retention and lifetime value. So the customers we add today should contribute for many quarters to come, which is why our focus is now on engaging and retaining them.

Reflecting this progress, we raised our Hiya net sales outlook to $130 million. There's still plenty of work ahead, and I'll take a few more minutes to share my thoughts on where we need to do better. First, Core Nutrition. We're tracking inside the range we expected for the year, but it isn't where we want to be. And the clearest example is active customers, which are down 8% year-over-year.

Greater China, our largest market, accounted for most of the sequential decline in net sales and active customers. On lighter incentive and promotional activity during the third quarter and outside of Southeast Asia Pacific, every region declined in constant currency.

Growing our active customer base remains our top priority. Our brand investment, product innovation that we plan to begin introducing in 2027 and the incentive plan refinements are all aimed at growth in active customers, and we expect the benefits to build gradually.

Second, we're not satisfied with Rise Wellness' results, and we're lowering our outlook again. Last year's third quarter included a large club order for Rise Bar that did not repeat, and club orders again came in below our expectations. Club channel sales are inherently lumpy and reflect in part order timing that we do not control.

Improving gross margin remains a priority. Protein Pop is still a young brand. We launched Protein Pop Balance in Target in September. As we said, we would and our goal is to broaden distribution beyond the club channel and turn this effort into more consistent results.

Third, Hiya. The work ahead is retention, building retail and improving profitability. So while there are -- there's plenty of opportunity for improvement in all our brands, we're making progress, and I'm encouraged by what we're seeing come to fruition. These early results reinforce my confidence in our strategy and in the actions we're taking. With that, I'll ask Doug to walk through the correction to our second quarter non-GAAP figures and add some color on the outlook.

G. Hekking

Thanks, Kevin. I'll briefly cover our updated outlook and our cash position and then turn it back to Kevin. With the third quarter in the books, we now expect net sales approaching $900 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $77 million compared with our prior outlook of $80.5 million.

The change reflects softer sales at Rise, our decision to invest at Hiya, which is partially offset by stronger profitability in the Core Nutritional segment. With about 2 months left in the year, we anticipate Hiya will build on momentum for the third quarter with sequential growth in net sales and adjusted EBITDA as the subscribers we add in the third quarter contribute for a full quarter and retail and Amazon keep building.

For Core Nutritional, we're assuming net sales of roughly $740 million within the range we provided at the beginning of the year and $10 million below our most recent outlook, reflecting fewer active customers. For Rise, our outlook assumes certain retail orders currently scheduled for the fourth quarter to ship as planned. If the timing of those orders shift into the first quarter, our 2026 results could be modestly below the outlook, though we would expect any changes in net sales and earnings to be realized in 2027.

Finally, cash. Cash from operations totaled $45 million year-to-date, up from $26 million last year, and free cash flow was $36 million, more than double last year. Inventory being down 13% from the end of the year was also a positive. We ended the quarter with $179 million in cash and no debt, which gives us the flexibility to continue investing in our strategy and drive future growth. With that, I'll turn it back to Kevin.

Kevin Guest

Thanks, Doug. To close, we still have plenty of opportunity for improvement, but I repeat, we're making progress. Our priorities are clear: grow customer acquisition and loyalty in Core Nutrition, engage and retain Hiya's new subscribers and improve margins at Rise. We have a strategy we believe in and the teams who are executing it. Thank you for joining us. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question we will hear from Anthony Lebiedzinski with Sidoti.

質疑応答

Anthony Lebiedzinski

So first, on the Core Nutritional side, it was good to see some pockets of growth, as you called out, the Southeast Asia Pacific. I guess it's a multipart question here. Are you doing anything meaningfully different there versus the other regions?

And I guess the second part of that question, as you look to evolve your brand partner incentive plan, can you give more specifics as far as what changes do you expect to achieve from this? What's the time frame as to when we could see some improvements in the customer count and also the segment revenue as well?

Kevin Guest

Those are excellent questions. We have some really strong leadership around the world, and we are seeing some things work in Southeast Asia that we are expanding in other markets around the world. I'd love to have Brent Neidig, our Chief Commercial Officer, who deals directly with those markets, also respond to that question.

Brent Neidig

Thanks, Kevin. Anthony, thank you for the question. Yes, it was great to see the results from Southeast Asia. I think it's a combination of many things. Southeast Asia has been in a rebuild for the last many quarters and a couple of years actually.

We've changed leadership in several markets, and that's producing fruit. In the quarter specifically, we had an incentive program that ran, which was quite successful. We are going to build on that into the fourth quarter. But I think where the real magic came together was that we have seen a great deal of reengagement from our top brand partner leaders in many of those core markets, specifically in Australia, Malaysia, even in Korea, the Philippines.

And that combination of reengagement from our brand partners who are driving the growth, combined with the incentive program that we ran is really delivering the results that we're seeing. I wouldn't necessarily call it a new trend line, but we're very optimistic to see those results continue to build in some of those core markets. Remind me the second part of that question, Anthony?

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Sure. Yes. So as far as the comment about evolving your brand partner incentive plan, so if you could just comment on what types of changes you expect to achieve from these incentive plan changes and kind of the time frame as to when we could see some tangible results from that?

Brent Neidig

Yes, sure. We've talked about this many times. Our major evolution to the plan took place last year in July is when the first parts of that rolled out. What that was designed to do was to bring some more money from the back end of the plan to the front end to encourage increased acquisition and help people see success as they -- as soon as they come in the door. That's been successful.

We have seen increased brand partner engagement. And when you look at the numbers, our brand partner decline is less than our preferred customer decline. So we think that the acquisition engine is still intact and still working. Where we really see an opportunity going forward is in consumer loyalty. And Kevin addressed that in his prepared remarks.

But the consumer loyalty piece, that's where we see an opportunity to make some slight adjustments to the current plan, nothing major, but some adjustments to qualification criteria and timing of payout of certain incentives, which we believe will drive increased retention and loyalty, ultimately driving LTV. So that's the program that we've got queued up, and we expect that to roll out throughout 2027. So it's going to be a phased-in approach.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Got it. Yes. And then as far as the comment on the -- as far as new product introduction, can you speak to the pipeline of new products that you have for next year? And also, it looks like you're going to be a bit more aggressive with digital marketing. How do we think about the impact that may have on your costs?

Kevin Guest

Well, those are great questions. Meeting people where they're at is a key part of our strategy and also speaking to them effectively where they're at and relevant communications is a big part of that as we think about our product launch and expansion and growth. And we've actually done a couple of test markets here in the U.S. that are reaping positive results that we're very optimistic around the consumer-driven product-based offerings. And so -- but I would like to ask Kathryn Armstrong. Dr. Armstrong is our Chief Science Officer. And would you comment on his question?

Kathryn Armstrong

Anthony, this is Kathryn. Thanks, Kevin. When we talk about our new product launches, to Kevin's point, it's really about the holistic approach of how do we bring these to market. And so we're focusing a lot on women's and kids initiatives.

To Kevin's point, we have a lot of experience in those areas, and we've been testing out new ideas, both through our core brand as well as through our extended set of brands in terms of how we can leverage product execution to drive customer loyalty. And you can expect to see those coming to fruition in 2027 with launches.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Okay. And then with respect to Hiya, how do we think about the balance between marketing spending and profitability for the brand? And I guess as you look to scale Hiya across the core subscription business and add more retail, kind of as you look at building this brand over the course of the next few years, how do we think about gross margins, operating margins for Hiya, where they could be?

Kevin Guest

When we first acquired Hiya, the thing that got me really excited -- most excited about Hiya was the competency of their team and how proactive and how effective they were at building a national brand and how focused they were.

And it's great to see them expand and grow inside their channel and their product base. But I'd like to ask Walter, who's coordinating from our home office with the Hiya leadership team on the go-forward and execution.

Walter Noot

Yes. Think about it this way, Anthony. So when the customer first buys from Hiya, first order is half price. And the first order comes with a nice bottle and it's got a really nice box, and it's an expensive presentation that gets sent to that customer. Hiya invests in that new customer. And we have a really high LTV and it's very predictable.

It's been predictable since the beginning, we've actually seen it gone up over the last year. And so with Hiya, you'll see months like September, especially September, but even this last quarter, where CAC went down a little bit. And so it gave us an opportunity to go out and acquire more customers. And you saw a net gain of about 30,000 new customers that came in. And those customers are going to stay for a long time.

And so what happens in first month is you'll see lower EBITDA, lower margins, and then you'll start seeing us reap that just like Doug said. So in Q4, you'll start seeing margins going up quite substantially. Same thing that will probably happen in Q1 of next year, you'll see a lot more acquisition because beginning of the year, we'll acquire a whole bunch more customers.

And then throughout the year, we'll start benefiting from that. And then on the retail space, we have a much higher margin on the retail space. So we're in Target right now. That's getting us good margins, and that's growing fairly quickly. And then we're going into club at the beginning of next year and early Q1. And so you'll see -- as time goes on, I think we'll build a nice base. With DTC, especially with Hiya's business, the kind of the way it's set up with that first order being half price, that creates some inconsistency in EBITDA. But over time, as we start adding retail, that will start to change.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

Okay. That's very helpful context. And then kind of, I guess, a similar question on Rise Wellness. So it does appear that it's a bit more lumpy than expected. However, as you look to diversify your retail distribution, how do we think about sales and profitability for the brand and whether that includes any new additional products that you're thinking of as far as potentially announcing next year? Just how do we think about the trajectory for Rise Wellness?

Walter Noot

So with Rise, like you said, it has been lumpy, especially because of club stores. And even though we still are -- it's very promising. Club stores are still very interested in the brand and what we're doing with them. It's just that they do a lot of testing with us and they'll order on a regional basis rather than a national basis at times. So we're going kind of back and forth.

But we have, not just conversations, but we've got orders coming in, and we think it's going to be positive long term. But in the meantime, we've had to start building a base because if you think about it, Protein Pop was a brand-new brand last year. I mean, this is September last year, we launched at Target. So it's a new brand we have to build up.

We have gone -- by the end of this year, we'll have in the retail space, not club, but this is grocery and Target and grocery. We'll have 4,100 stores that we'll be in, which is a huge amount of growth that's all happened this year. That will build a base for us and allow us to -- especially in grocery, there's a better profitability margin for us.

And so I think that you'll see, obviously, we didn't do well this year because -- especially because of club and because of some of the lumpiness of that business. This year -- this next year and the rest of this year, we'll start having more business going through those retail channels.

Protein Pop is -- the units per store and dollars per store is the #1 clear protein product in the U.S. So it's -- and that's a product that started in September last year. So there's -- and there's a huge opportunity for us still in the grocery space and in the club space. We are -- we have just launched a new product in Protein Pop, that's called Protein Pop Balance. It's a prebiotic fiber and a protein. And it's a lower amount of protein. So it competes in the grocery aisle -- or sorry, in the soda aisle.

So because of that, we think we'll get more units per user, per customer. We think it will consume more. And we also think that being in the soda aisle, we'll get a lot more sales per store per week. And that's really been our focus. I think for the next year, I mean, we definitely have new products we'll be launching. But I think Protein Pop Balance is probably our focus for the next year.

Anthony Lebiedzinski

And I guess my last question is probably for Doug. So the tax rate has been a headwind. Just wondering if there are any things that you can try to do to minimize the tax impact, anything structurally that you could perhaps do differently or as far as the tax impact? And how do we think about the tax rate beyond 2026?

G. Hekking

Yes. I think everything that we just talked about with Hiya, Rise and even Kevin's strategic comments on the Core, all feed into that. I think we've had a little bit of a drag on our venture companies, which I think are -- there's so much positive information there. But as you see that, you just don't get the benefit from a tax standpoint, I think particularly with the amortization of intangibles at Hiya.

And so that really is a headwind. And so one of the things we look at is the absolute tax amount. And the rate is not something, believe me, we sit through Board meetings. And it's a comment every Board meeting, and it's an interesting navigation. I think there's opportunities to shift some of the spend closer to the consumers in different markets, and there's some opportunity there. I think any of those considerations, we want to be very thoughtful and very intentional about something that's going to be additive to the business. But I think just generally getting traction in the businesses and executing on the plans that we have with our venture companies are the best opportunity.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to Andrew Masuda for closing remarks.

Andrew Masuda

Thank you, Rochelle, and thanks for your questions and participation on today's conference call. If you have any remaining questions, please feel free to contact Investor Relations at (801) 954-7210.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.