オックスフォード・スクエア・キャピタル (OXSQ) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：NAV低下、デレバレッジ継続

主要ハイライト

• オックスフォード・スクエア・キャピタル（NASDAQ: OXSQ）が発表した2026年第3四半期の純投資所得は490万ドル（1株当たり0.04ドル）となり、前四半期の510万ドル（1株当たり0.05ドル）から減少しました。
• 1株当たり純資産価値（NAV）は1.29ドルから1.21ドルに低下した一方、実現および未実現の純投資損失の合計は110万ドルから330万ドルに拡大しました。
• 総投資所得は前四半期の940万ドルから990万ドルに増加しました。投資買付総額は2,080万ドルとなり、返済額の1,030万ドルを上回りました。
• 四半期末のデット・エクイティ・レシオ（負債資本倍率）は1.07となり、2026年第1四半期末の1.26から低下しました。経営陣によると、その後の追加の債務返済によりレバレッジはさらに低下したとのことです。
• 取締役会は、2027年1月、2月、3月について1株当たり0.015ドルの月次分配金を発表しました。経営陣は、分配金の引き下げについて、足元の収益力、継続的なデレバレッジ、およびセカンダリー市場での投資機会に備えた資金余力の確保に関連していると説明しました。
• 経営陣は、ポートフォリオをより保守的なリスクプロファイルへとシフトさせたのは意図的なものであり、投資機会の出現に伴いさらなるローテーションを期待していると述べました。

主要財務データ

事業および業績

経営陣は、ポートフォリオのリポジショニングについて、米国シンジケート・コーポレートローンおよびCLOエクイティにおけるリスクの価格設定に対する意図的な対応であると説明しました。同社は、第二抵当権付き担保付債務およびCLOエクイティへのエクスポージャーを削減する一方で、第一抵当権付き担保付債務への重点を強めています。

オックスフォード・スクエアは、CLOエクイティのセカンダリー市場に魅力的な投資機会を見出しているものの、プライマリー市場では魅力的な機会が減少していると見ています。経営陣は、厳選した投資活動と、緩やかなデレバレッジおよびリスク管理のバランスを取る方針です。

モーニングスターLSTA米国レバレッジド・ローン指数は、6月30日時点の額面比94.96%から9月30日時点の95.32%へと上昇しました。格付け別では、BB格のローン価格が8ベーシスポイント上昇、B格が119ベーシスポイント上昇したのに対し、CCC格の価格は286ベーシスポイント下落しました。

過去12ヶ月間のローンデフォルト率（元本ベース）は0.97%から0.55%へ低下しました。しかし、負債管理措置（LME）を含むデフォルト率は6月末時点の2.77%から2.97%に上昇し、高水準にとどまりました。ディストレスト比率は6.87%から7.05%に上昇しました。

修正・リプライシング取引を除く米国のレバレッジド・ローン新規発行額は、2026年第3四半期に1,074億ドルとなり、2025年第3四半期比で20%減少しました。ローン・ファンドへの資金流入額は約12億8,000万ドルでした。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、さらなる緩やかなデレバレッジを進めつつ、機動的な投資の機会を捉えるためにポートフォリオのローテーションを継続すると見込んでいます。具体的なレバレッジ目標は示されておらず、負債削減のペースは投資機会と適切なレバレッジ比率の維持とのバランスによって決定されます。

取締役会は、2027年1月から3月までの各月について、1株当たり0.015ドルの分配金を発表しました。経営陣によると、この水準はポートフォリオの現在および予想される足元の収益力、レバレッジ削減の目標、ならびにセカンダリー市場での投資に対する柔軟性を維持する必要性を反映したものです。

リスクと注視すべき点

• 1株当たりNAVは前四半期比で0.08ドル低下し、実現および未実現の純損失の合計は330万ドルに拡大しました。
• 高格付けカテゴリーの上昇とは対照的に、CCC格ローンの価格は当四半期中に286ベーシスポイント下落しました。
• 負債管理措置を含むデフォルト率は2.97%に上昇し、ローン・ディストレスト比率は7.05%に上昇しました。
• 経営陣は、プライマリー市場におけるCLOエクイティの魅力的な機会が減っていると考えており、リスクに対してより保守的なアプローチを維持しています。
• 分配金の減額は、ポートフォリオの足元の収益力に関する経営陣の評価と、デレバレッジの優先順位を反映しています。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

• ポートフォリオの構成：経営陣は、第一抵当権付き債務へのシフト、および第二抵当権付き債務とCLOエクイティからの削減が意図的なものであることを確認しました。魅力的な投資機会が得られ次第、さらなるローテーションが見込まれます。
• レバレッジ：デット・エクイティ・レシオは、2026年第1四半期末の1.26から第3四半期末には1.07に低下しました。経営陣は、追加の返済によりレバレッジがさらに低下したと述べ、今後の削減ペースは投資機会次第となるとしました。
• 実現損失：実現損失は主に、2つのCLOエクイティ・ポジションが契約終了を迎えたことによるものです。これらのポジションは既に価値がほぼゼロまたはオプション価値のみで計上されていたため、主に未実現損失から実現損失への振替となりました。
• 未実現評価益：当四半期の800万ドル弱の未実現評価益について、経営陣は主にレバレッジド・ローン価格の全般的な上昇に因るものであり、一部のポジションが著しく高いリターンを生み出したと説明しました。
• 分配金の決定：取締役会は、2027年第1四半期の月次分配金0.015ドルの決定にあたり、足元の収益力、緩やかなデレバレッジの目標、およびセカンダリー市場での投資機会に備えた資本温存意向を根拠としました。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Carly, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Oxford Square Capital Corp. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jonathan Cohen, CEO. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Cohen

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Oxford Square Capital Corp. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by Saul Rosenthal, our President; Bruce Rubin, our CFO; and Kevin Yonon, our Managing Director and Portfolio Manager.

Bruce, could you open the call with the disclosure regarding forward-looking statements?

Bruce Rubin

Sure, Jonathan. Today's conference call is being recorded. An audio replay of the conference call will be available for 30 days. Replay information is included in our press release that was issued earlier this morning. Please note that this call is the property of Oxford Square Capital Corp. Any unauthorized rebroadcast of this call in any form is strictly prohibited. At this point, please direct your attention to the customary disclosure in this morning's press release regarding forward-looking information.

Today's conference call includes forward-looking statements and projections that reflect the company's current views with respect to, among other things, future events and financial performance. We ask that you refer to our most recent filings with the SEC for important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these projections. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements unless required to do so by law. To obtain copies of our latest SEC filings, please visit our website at www.oxfordsquarecapital.com.

With that, I'll turn the presentation back to Jonathan.

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you, Bruce. For the quarter ended September, Oxford Square's net investment income was approximately $4.9 million or $0.04 per share compared with approximately $5.1 million or $0.05 per share in the prior quarter. Our net asset value per share stood at $1.21 compared to a net asset value per share of $1.29 for the prior quarter. During the quarter, we distributed $0.105 per share to our common stock shareholders. For the third quarter, we recorded total investment income of approximately $9.9 million compared to approximately $9.4 million in the prior quarter.

In the third quarter, we recorded combined net unrealized and realized losses on investments of approximately $3.3 million or $0.03 per share compared to combined net unrealized and realized losses on investments of approximately $1.1 million or $0.01 per share for the prior quarter. During the third quarter, our investment activity consisted of purchases of approximately $20.8 million and repayments of approximately $10.3 million.

During the quarter ended September, we issued a total of approximately 14.1 million shares of our common stock pursuant to an at-the-market offering, resulting in net proceeds of approximately $19.4 million. On October 28, our Board of Directors declared monthly distributions of $0.015 per share for each of the months ending January, February and March of 2027. Additional details regarding record and payment date information can be found in our press release that was issued this morning.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our Portfolio Manager, Kevin Yonon.

Kevin?

Kevin P. Yonon

Thank you, Jonathan. During the quarter ended September 30, U.S. loan market performance improved versus the prior quarter. U.S. loan prices, as defined by the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index, increased from 94.96% of par as of June 30 to 95.32% of par as of September 30. According to LCD, during the quarter, there was some pricing dispersion with BB-rated loan prices increasing 8 basis points, B-rated loan prices increasing 119 basis points and CCC-rated loan prices decreasing 286 basis points on average.

According to PitchBook LCD, the 12-month trailing default rate for the loan index decreased to 0.55% by principal amount at the end of the quarter from 0.97% at the end of June. Additionally, the default rate, including various forms of liability management exercises, which are not captured in the aforementioned default rate, remained at an elevated level of 2.97% versus 2.77% as of June 30. The distress ratio, defined as a percentage of loans with prices below 80% of par, ended the quarter at 7.05% compared to 6.87% at the end of June.

During the quarter ended September 30, 2026, U.S. leveraged loan primary market issuance, excluding amendments and repricing transactions, was $107.4 billion, representing a 20% decrease versus the quarter ended September 30, 2025. This was driven by lower refinancing, dividend and M&A activity, partly offset by higher LBO activity versus the prior year comparable quarter. At the same time, U.S. loan fund inflows, as measured by Lipper, were approximately $1.28 billion for the quarter ended September 30. We continue to focus on portfolio management strategies designed to maximize our long-term total return. And as a permanent capital vehicle, we historically have been able to take a longer-term view towards our investment strategy.

With that, I will turn the call back over to Jonathan.

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you, Kevin. Additional information about Oxford Square's third quarter performance has been posted to our website at www.oxfordsquarecapital.com.

And with that, operator, we're happy to open the call up for any questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Erik Zwick with Lucid Capital Markets.

質疑応答

Erik Zwick

Jonathan, I want to start maybe with just a bigger picture question as I look through the material. I noticed that the portfolio turnover rate relative to a year ago had slowed from 12.7% down to 4.1%. And then if I look at Slide 4 in the slide deck, just looking at the composition of the investment portfolio, there's been increased concentration in the first lien secured debt and the other category and then declines in the second lien secured debt and CLO equity.

So just curious, as the last year has played out, how much of that change in the portfolio composition was conscious and on your part relative to maybe just market opportunity? And curious, would we continue to see that portfolio composition change over the next few quarters? Or do you feel like the current composition is well suited for today?

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you, Erik, very much. So from an overarching perspective, I think the decision-making has been entirely conscious. We have oriented the portfolio in such a way as to take a more -- reflect a more conservative view of the current price for risk in the primary and secondary markets so far as both U.S. syndicated corporate loans are concerned and also CLO equity. We do see strong opportunities right now in the secondary market for CLO equity, but we see many fewer compelling opportunities in the primary market.

So the combination of a desire to delever the portfolio somewhat and an overall reflection of our approach to risk management, those are the things that has led -- have led to the current composition of the portfolio.

Erik Zwick

That's helpful. And I guess, do you feel like the portfolio is in a good position today? Or would you continue some remixing in favor of maybe first liens and maybe secondary CLO equity investments going forward?

Jonathan Cohen

I think you can reasonably expect to see continued portfolio rotation with the idea of both taking advantage of opportunistic investment possibilities as they arise and also reflecting, hopefully, the continued desire to moderately delever the portfolio while maintaining the appropriate levels of risk management.

Erik Zwick

Yes. That makes sense. And I did want to follow up kind of on the leverage topic. I think leverage is down to 1.07 now at this point. It sounds like maybe with your comments, we could see a little bit further deleveraging going forward? And if so, do you have a kind of target range in mind where you'd like it to settle?

Jonathan Cohen

So intra-quarter, Erik, you may have seen that we paid down some additional debt. So it's lower than that still. And our expectation is that we're going to continue to pay down debt depending on the balance that we see between investment opportunity and the necessity to maintain our leverage ratios at the appropriate levels. But you're absolutely right. You can see at the end of the first quarter, we were sitting at a total debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26. We closed out the third quarter at 1.07. And per my earlier comment, we're lower still on the back of the intra-quarter repayment.

Erik Zwick

Yes. And then moving to the net realized losses in the quarter. I know there were no sales during the quarter. So curious what drove those realized losses?

Jonathan Cohen

So essentially, on at least, I believe, 2 deals, on actually the 2 deals, those were CLO equity positions that had simply reached their terminus points. So they were essentially discharged and unwound as ongoing investments. They were being carried at essentially no value or option value only at that point.

Erik Zwick

Got you. So was that a switch from unrealized to realized? Was that considered kind of what happened as they wound down?

Jonathan Cohen

Precisely right, Erik. Yes, exactly.

Erik Zwick

Got it. Got you. Okay. And then on the flip kind of the unrealized appreciation in the quarter, just shy of $8 million. And I know Kevin mentioned increases in leveraged loan prices during the quarter. Is that primarily the driver there? Or were there some other factors at play as well?

Kevin P. Yonon

Primarily increases in leveraged loan prices, more or less across the book, except for a few positions that were sort of outsized returns, but fairly balanced across the loan portfolio.

Erik Zwick

Excellent. And then last one for me, and I'll step aside, just on the dividend payment in January going forward. Lower now, but seems to be more in line with the earnings power of the current portfolio. Just kind of curious if you could run us through the decision and how you came to that number?

Jonathan Cohen

Sure. The Board's decision, Erik, was taken on the back of exactly what you just mentioned, which is the current and likely prospective near-term earnings power of the fund, combined with the things that we had talked about earlier, which were, firstly, a desire to continue to moderately delever the portfolio, which obviously paying out a lower distribution is helpful with. And then secondly, being in an appropriate position to take advantage of principally secondary market opportunities as they arise.

Operator

I show no further questions at this time. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Jonathan Cohen, CEO, for any closing remarks.

Jonathan Cohen

Thank you very much. Thank you, everyone, for being on this call and for your continued interest in Oxford Square. We look forward to speaking to you again soon. Thanks very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.