エンプロイヤーズ・ホールディングス (EIG) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：保険料低下の中で収益性が向上

要約

• エンプロイヤーズ・ホールディングス（NYSE: EIG）が発表した2026年第3四半期の純利益は希薄化後1株あたり0.64ドルとなり、前年同期の1株あたり純損失0.36ドルから黒字に転換した。調整後純利益は希薄化後1株あたり0.71ドルで、前年同期の調整後純損失1.10ドルから改善した。
• 損害率および損害調査費（LAE）率は、前年同期に3,800万ドルの準備金積み増しが含まれていたことなどを主因に、前年同期の97.1%から71.2%へ改善した。同社は2026年中に任意保険事業において過年度の準備金進展（変動）を認識しなかった。
• GAAPコンバインド・ラシオは129.7%から108.4%へと低下した。経営陣はこの改善を著しい進展と評価しつつも、引受利益を過去の水準に回復させることに引き続き注力すると述べた。
• 元受収入保険料は18%減の1億5,110万ドル、既経過正味保険料は17%減の1億6,020万ドルとなった。この縮小は、長期化する軟調な市場環境の中で意図的な価格設定および引受対応を行った結果を反映している。
• 純投資収益は23.8%増の3,230万ドルとなった。これにはプライベート・エクイティ投資からの分配金560万ドルが含まれている。これらの分配金を除いた投資収益は6%増の約2,670万ドルとなった。
• 経営陣は、対象を絞った引受再評価プログラムが2026年第4四半期中に全保有契約に一巡し、その後は保険料がある程度安定すると予想している。

主要財務データ

年初来9ヶ月間の純利益は5,080万ドルとなり、2025年同期の3,420万ドルから増加した。調整後純利益は前年同期の740万ドルから3,590万ドルに増加した。

事業および経営成績

有効保険契約件数は8%減の約124,000件となった。保険料収入の低下に比べて契約件数の減少が緩やかであったのは、同社が特定の業種や地域から撤退する一方で、小規模事業者の顧客の大半を維持したことを反映している。

6月に投入された超額労災保険商品については、決算電話会議の時点で31件の契約と650万ドルの保険料を計上した。エンプロイヤーズ・ホールディングスはまた、2027年の商品化を目指し、高額免責（ラージ・ディダクティブル）型商品の開発にも着手した。

テクノロジー投資とAI導入は拡大を続けている。ITチームは2026年第3四半期中、適用可能な業務タスクの3分の2でAIを活用した。新たなAI活用による保険金請求サマリー・アプリが未解決請求案件の全体を審査・分析しており、経営陣はこれにより保険金請求チームが3年間で5万時間以上を他の業務へ再配分できると見込んでいる。

固定利付有価証券ポートフォリオの簿価利回りは前年同期比で40ベーシス・ポイント上昇し5%となった。修正デュレーションは4.3、平均信用格付けは「A+」を維持した。金利上昇に伴う満期保有目的有価証券の時価下落により、その他の包括損益累計額の損失は6,170万ドル増加して7,400万ドルとなった。経営陣は、この下落は信用力に関連するものではないと説明している。

エンプロイヤーズ・ホールディングスは当四半期中、1,810万ドルの自社株買いと630万ドルの普通配当を含め、計2,440万ドルを株主に還元した。同社は平均価格48.44ドルで373,848株を取得し、2026年の自社株買い承認枠のうち9,490万ドルを残している。また、取締役会は2026年第4四半期の配当金を1株あたり0.34ドルとすることを決定し、11月12日時点の株主に対し12月3日に支払われる予定である。

経営見通し

経営陣は、2025年末に開始した対象限定の引受再評価プロセスが2026年第4四半期中に全保有契約を一巡すると見込んでいる。対象となる契約の解約や非更新が完了すればトップラインの安定化が進むと期待されるが、経営陣は、労災保険の損害コスト低下傾向が続く中では成長の確保が引き続き困難である点も強調した。

再投資利回りの上昇が今後の収益を下支えすると見込まれている。また、同社は高額免責型の労災保険商品について2027年の投入を目指している。

リスクおよび注視事項

• GAAPコンバインド・ラシオは前年同期から大幅に改善したものの、108.4%と依然として100%を超える水準にとどまった。
• 料率が軟調な環境下で同社が成長よりも収益性を優先したため、保険料の規模縮小が続いた。
• 各保険会社がシェアを争う中、新規契約における手数料の引き上げ圧力が継続していると経営陣は報告した。エンプロイヤーズ・ホールディングスは、引受マージンが許容できると判断した場合にのみ手数料を引き上げている。
• 全米の保険金請求頻度は、カリフォルニア州以外の州が牽引して減少傾向が続いた。しかし、カリフォルニア州では2025年までの累積的トラウマに関する請求を主因として、直近の事故年度で請求頻度が増加した。
• 経営陣は2026事故年度においてカリフォルニア州外で請求深刻度（シベリティ）の上昇圧力が見られる初期兆候に言及したが、これは広範な傾向ではなく少数の大口損害によるものだとしている。
• 金利上昇が固定利付有価証券の時価を引き下げ、報告上の純資産の重荷となった。ただし、経営陣はこの動きが信用品質の悪化を反映したものではないと説明している。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

引受再評価と保険料の安定化：経営陣は、自社の取り組みが全般的に適用されたものではなく、特定の業種や地域に集中していると述べた。このプロセスは2026年第4四半期末までにポートフォリオ全体へほぼ反映され、その後の保険料収入の一定の安定化を支える見通しである。

保険金請求頻度：全米のポートフォリオ全体で請求頻度の低下傾向が続いたが、カリフォルニア州は例外にとどまった。経営陣はカリフォルニア州での頻度高止まりの主因を累積的トラウマとし、自己負担額を設定している規模の大きな被保険者は請求頻度の変化による影響を受けにくいため、新規の超額労災保険事業によってリスクが分散されると述べた。

給料計算監査と解約：監査にかかる未払計上額は約2,300万ドルで、2026年第3四半期中に動きはなかった。同社は約230万ドルの不承認契約・不遵守保険料（ノンコンプライアンス・プレミアム）を計上した。解約件数は前年同期比でほぼ横ばいだったが、代理店がより有利な価格設定やより高い手数料を求めたため、見積もりや引き受けの打診件数は増加した。

医療費および医薬品コスト：全体の損害深刻度（シベリティ）は横ばいまたは低下した。同社の医薬品コスト指数はパンデミック前の水準をやや上回っているものの、経営陣は医療費負担の問題が自社ポートフォリオにおける請求行動を大きく変化させている証拠は見られないと説明した。

決算電話会議トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2026 Employers Holdings, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Lisenby, General Counsel for Employers Holdings. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Lisenby

Thank you, Danny. Today's call is being recorded and webcast from the Investors section of our website, where a replay will be available following the call.

Statements made during this conference call that are not based on historical facts are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are made in reliance on the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although we believe the expectations expressed in our forward-looking statements are reasonable, risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to be materially different from our expectations, including the risks set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

All remarks made during the call are current only at the time of the call and will not be updated to reflect subsequent developments. The company also uses its website as a means of disclosing material nonpublic information and for complying with disclosure obligations under SEC Regulation FD. Such disclosures will be included in the Investors section of our website. Accordingly, investors should monitor that section of our website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls and webcast.

In our earnings press release and in our remarks or responses to questions, we may use non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results are included in our financial supplement as an attachment to our earnings press release, our investor presentation and any other materials available in the Investors section of our website.

Now, I will turn the call over to Kathy Antonello, our Chief Executive Officer.

Katherine Antonello

Thank you, Jeff. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me today is Mike Pedraja, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, I will begin with highlights of our third quarter results and then hand it over to Mike for more detail on our financials. Before we take your questions, I'll come back with some closing thoughts.

Our third quarter results reflect the progress we're making to restore our underwriting profitability to historical levels. We reported net income of $0.64 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $0.36 per diluted share in Q3 of 2025. Adjusted net income was $0.71 per diluted share compared to an adjusted net loss of $1.10 per diluted share. The improvement in earnings was driven primarily by the absence of the $38 million of reserve strengthening we recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Our loss and LAE ratio improved to 71.2% from 97.1%. We have not recognized any prior year development on our voluntary business this year, and our current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding the loss portfolio transfer, is 72%.

Our GAAP combined ratio improved to 108.4% from 129.7%. That is significant progress, but we are not satisfied with that level, and we'll continue to strive for underwriting improvement. The reduction in the loss and LAE ratio was slightly offset by the underwriting expense ratio, which was 24.3% compared to 20.6% a year ago and reflected the smaller premium base. Gross premiums written were $151.1 million, a decrease of 18% and net premiums earned were $160.2 million, a decrease of 17%. These decreases reflect the pricing and underwriting actions we've taken to prioritize profitability in the prolonged soft market. Policies in force declined 8% to about 124,000, a smaller decline than premium as we retained the majority of our small business customers while exiting selected classes of business.

Underwriting expenses decreased slightly, primarily because of lower policyholder dividends, lower bad debt expense and premium taxes and assessments. Our commission expense ratio was 12.9% compared to 12% a year ago. Our investment portfolio was a positive contributor with net investment income increasing to $32.3 million, supported by higher yields following our 2025 investment rebalancing and $5.6 million in returns from our private equity investments.

With the significant rise in U.S. interest rates, our portfolio is well positioned to take advantage of higher reinvestment rates, which should contribute to earnings over time. Higher rates also impacted our book value through unrealized market value declines in our fixed income portfolio. The decrease is not a reflection of credit quality. Book value per share, including the deferred gain, was $49.44, up 2.1% from a year ago, but down 5.3% from the end of the second quarter, with both rates including dividends. Adjusted book value per share, which excludes accumulated other comprehensive income, was $53.64, up 7.1% from a year ago and up 1.3% from last quarter, again, with both rates including dividends.

With that, Mike will provide a deeper dive into our third quarter financial results, and then I'll return with some closing remarks. Mike?

Michael Pedraja

Thank you, Kathy. Gross premiums written were $151.1 million compared to $183.9 million for the prior year quarter, a decrease of 18%, reflecting the deliberate pricing and underwriting actions we began in 2025. These actions contributed to declines in both new and renewal business premiums in the quarter. Our losses and LAE were $114 million, a decrease of 38.9%. The decrease was primarily due to the absence of last year's reserve strengthening Kathy mentioned. Our voluntary business, current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding the LPT, was 72%. Our reported loss and LAE ratio was 71.2% compared to 97.1% a year ago.

Commission expense was $20.6 million, a decrease of 10.4%, consistent with lower premiums. Our commission expense ratio was 12.9% compared to 12% a year ago. The increase in the ratio was due primarily to higher commission rates on new business writings in 2026, combined with a onetime adjustment that reduced the 2025 third quarter ratio. Underwriting expenses were $38.9 million, a decrease of 1.8%. Our underwriting expense ratio was 24.3% compared to 20.6% a year ago. Overall, our GAAP combined ratio was 108.4% or 109.2%, excluding the LPT, compared to 129.7% and 130.4% a year ago. Net investment income was $32.3 million, an increase of 23.8%. The increase was primarily the result from our private equity investments, which contributed $5.6 million of distributions this quarter, along with higher yields on fixed maturity securities resulting from our investment rebalancing activity in 2025.

Excluding the private equity distributions, net investment income was approximately $26.7 million, up 6% from last year. Our fixed income book yield was 5%, a 40 basis point increase from last year, while our modified duration was 4.3 and average credit quality remained strong at A+. Net realized and unrealized losses on investments were $3.2 million compared to gains of $21.2 million a year ago. The current period's result was driven by a reduction in the net asset value of our private equity investments related to distributions and by reduced common equity investment gains. Interest and financing expenses were $1.3 million versus $0.2 million a year ago. The increase relates to our $125 million of senior debt associated with the recapitalization plan we announced in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Federal and state income tax expense was $2.9 million, a 20% effective tax rate compared to a benefit of $2.9 million or a 25.9% effective benefit rate a year ago. Our adjusted net income, which excludes net realized and unrealized investment gains and losses, and the benefit of LPT deferred gain amortization was $12.8 million for the quarter compared to an adjusted net loss of $25.5 million last year. Year-to-date, net income was $50.8 million and adjusted net income was $35.9 million compared to $34.2 million and $7.4 million for the 9 months of last year.

Turning to the balance sheet. Stockholders' equity was $785.6 million at quarter end, down from $858.8 million at June 30. Accumulated other comprehensive loss increased by $61.7 million to $74 million due directly to higher interest rates, reducing the market value of our fixed maturity securities. And as Kathy mentioned, is not related to credit quality. These unrealized losses should reverse as bonds approach maturity or if interest rates decline. Adjusted shareholders' equity, which excludes accumulated other comprehensive income and adds back the deferred gain was $943.6 million. We returned $24.4 million to stockholders in the quarter through $18.1 million of share repurchases and $6.3 million of regular quarterly dividends. We repurchased 373,848 shares at an average price of $48.44 per share. That price represented an 8% discount to our beginning book value per share, including the deferred gain and a 9% discount to our beginning adjusted book value per share. We have $94.9 million of repurchase authorization remaining under the 2026 program.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Kathy.

Katherine Antonello

Thank you, Mike. Yesterday, our Board of Directors declared a fourth quarter 2026 dividend of $0.34 per share payable on December 3 to stockholders of record as of November 12. Looking ahead, expanding our workers' compensation product offering is driving additional profitable growth and deepening our relationships with distribution partners. Our excess workers' compensation product, which we launched in June, is off to a strong start with 31 accounts and $6.5 million in premium to date. The product feedback from the market on our value-added service offerings has been very positive. We've begun developing our large deductible product, which we are targeting to launch next year.

We continue to make progress with our technology investments and AI adoption is growing each quarter. AI agents are now writing, testing and documenting software at Employers with the technology team utilizing AI in 2/3 of eligible work tasks in the third quarter. The results are tangible. This month, our new AI-driven claims summary application went live after assessing our entire inventory of open claims. We expect this new tool will allow our claims team to redeploy more than 50,000 hours over 3 years, with the efficiency ultimately benefiting our insureds, their injured workers and the company. It is a very exciting time at Employers, and we are confident that these investments are leading to a stronger and more resilient company.

And with that, Daniel, we will now take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist.

質疑応答

Mark Hughes

Kathy, the re-underwriting process, I think you started it late in the year last year. When do you think you have -- will have largely completed that and maybe get on the -- more of a footing to hold the top line stable or perhaps grow maybe too tough to ask in this kind of market, but that re-underwriting process, how much more do you have?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. It's a great question, Mark, and you hit on something that is important, it is very tough to grow in a market where loss costs continue to decline. But I will say, when you speak about the re-underwriting effort, it was very surgical. It was in specific classes and jurisdictions. And as you mentioned, we started at the end of last year, and we expect that to roll through the entire book within the fourth quarter of this year. So beyond that, we would expect that premiums will stabilize to some extent because we will be -- all those policies will have nonrenewed or canceled, and we will go back to some stability in our top line.

Mark Hughes

Appreciate that. The question of frequency has come up in a couple of different ways. I was just sort of curious your thoughts on frequency in your book. And then if you hear others like, say, Hartford saying that they're seeing a little bit more of an uptick in frequency, does that make sense in this kind of market?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. I've seen the transcripts where more and more carriers are calling out increases in frequency. I'll talk about our book to begin with. What we're seeing is frequency continuing to decline countrywide. But the devil's in the details, right? When you start to drill down, you might see things differently in different jurisdictions. The decline that we're seeing country-wide is being driven by claims outside of California. That's not new for us. It's something that we've talked about in earnings calls over the past year, 1.5 years. The frequency decreases countrywide are consistent with what you're seeing during the State of the Line and so forth with the long-term industry trends.

California frequency, as I said before, has increased in the latest accident years, and that's consistent with what the WCIRB is seeing and one of the reasons why they are filing for increases. For us, up through 2025, that was driven by cumulative trauma claim frequency. Excluding the CT claims, up through 2025, California claim frequency continued to trend downward. So we're keeping an eye on it. It can be a little bit lumpy from quarter-to-quarter. But overall, country-wide, I would just say that we're seeing decreases. I haven't seen much discussion in the earnings call transcripts from others in terms of what jurisdictions are driving that. But for us, I can tell you where we see the increases in California.

Mark Hughes

Yes. Interesting. How about the audits in the quarter? Anything it tells you about the payrolls and then cancellations? Is there any kind of uptick in cancellations maybe related to more aggressive competition or shopping?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. I mean in terms of audit, year-over-year, the audit pickup combined with our change in accrual wasn't -- they were very close, so we're not seeing a huge change there. Our audit accrual currently stands at about $23 million, and we didn't make any change to that in the third quarter of '26. We're seeing a little bit of an uptick in noncompliance premium. We recognized about $2.3 million of that this quarter. So not seeing a ton of change in terms of audit. You also asked about cancellations. I would say our cancellations are relatively flat year-over-year also. We -- where we're seeing big increases are in our submissions and our quotes which would, to me, say that more agents are shopping business to try to get a better price or a higher commission. So that could be something that's going on that policyholders are canceling policies looking for better prices.

Mark Hughes

Yes. I'll ask one final question, if I might. The -- are you seeing much upward pressure on commissions? I think your reported commissions are -- looks like they're holding reasonably stable. I think maybe there's some nonrecurring stuff in the year ago quarter on commissions, if I understand it properly. But are you seeing brokers pushing and maybe that is impacting your win rate or hit rate on those quotes?

Katherine Antonello

I would say yes to all of that. In regard to our commission rate, you're absolutely correct. There was an adjustment that occurred in the third quarter of 2025 that -- so that 12% from a year ago may have been slightly lower than we would normally see. But in terms of the competitive environment, we are seeing continued pressure on commissions for new business. So I think that just comes with the territory of the softer market and carriers competing to keep their market share. We are not chasing that everywhere. We're looking for pockets where we can increase commission, where we feel like there's room in the margin to do so. But there is a lot of upward pressure on commissions right now.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Karol Chmiel with Citizens.

Karol Chmiel

Kathy, just to go back to what Mark was inquiring regarding the audit. I know there wasn't much change. But in the bigger picture, with the whole higher cost of living and now various states and counties and cities pushing for higher minimum wage, are you having any conversations with your clients as to audit issues maybe coming up in the future where companies are going to be doing more with less workers?

Katherine Antonello

Yes, it's a good question. It's something we keep an eye on in terms of just macroeconomic, the picture there. I can't say that we've had -- given our policyholder base and just the small accounts that we typically write, I don't know that we've had any specific conversations, but we do track the economic behavior of what that might impact our book of business. Not seeing anything right now that would change what I feel like is our audit pickup in the future. I will say it's nothing like what we were seeing, say, coming out of the pandemic when payrolls were just increasing at such a dramatic rate. Things are fairly stable now. And we're -- we see from month to month that: one month, we might have a pickup; the next month, we might have a return in total, but not a lot of movement there.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Barclays. This is Justin on for Alex.

Unknown Analyst

I wanted to revisit the topic of frequency. I understand the frequency outside of California continues to be trending lower for your book of business. I was just wondering if there are any particular, say, industries or claims types or even worker populations where you may be seeing some frequency pressures emerge or maybe the rate of frequency declines are not as pronounced as it has been before?

Katherine Antonello

Yes, it's a great question. I mean, for us, and I'm talking about our guaranteed cost workers' compensation book, the area where we're seeing the most elevated frequency and then over the last 2 to 3 years, the largest increase in frequency has been California cumulative trauma. So, I will say one of the things that -- one of our strategic moves to, sort of, give us more optionality was to move into the excess workers' compensation space, which will diversify our book of business and allow us to write larger insureds with self-insured retentions that might not be impacted by changes in frequency to the same extent that you would see in a small business guaranteed cost book.

So, for us, that move was intentional. So, for example, if I stick with California and CT, we just got approved to write excess workers' comp in California. We would not expect that future book to be impacted by frequency increases as much as it has impacted the guaranteed cost book. In terms of industries, I have not seen that there are increases in frequency. I've seen no research, and I haven't seen anything in our book that is showing anything in terms of the frequency is more -- the increase in frequency is more prevalent or the lack of a decrease is more prevalent in one industry versus another.

Unknown Analyst

Understood. And maybe a quick follow-up on a similar point. I think we've been hearing some discussion around sort of the rising cost of health care costs and sort of the affordability potentially affecting workers' claims comp behavior. So, sort of, like historically, maybe some claims that have been addressed in health care is now spilling over into workers' comp claims instead. I was wondering if this was something that you are seeing in your own book of business or if there's any sort of observations that you're seeing industry-wide that talks to this sort of observation?

Katherine Antonello

Yes. I mean I'll start with our book. When we look at our book overall, severity is very steady or lower. And we have early indications with accident year 2026 in states outside of California that we might have some pressure on severity, but that's almost -- that's entirely driven by a few large losses. So, I wouldn't call it a widespread severity trend. We have, for the last 5 or 6 years, developed our own pharmaceutical index that we continue to look at. And those costs are up slightly relative to what we were seeing pre-pandemic levels. We had a recent uptick that recovered most of the post-pandemic decline, but it's really pretty moderate. So, I have also heard what you've heard, sort of, out on the street, but we're not seeing anything in our book right now that would suggest it's impacting us.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Kathy Antonello for closing remarks.

Katherine Antonello

Okay. Thank you, Daniel, and thank you all for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking with you all again in February.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.