コロンビア・スポーツウェア（COLM）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：売上高2%増、2026年見通しを更新

主要なポイント

• コロンビア・スポーツウェア（NASDAQ: COLM）が発表した2026年第3四半期の売上高は、前年同期比2%増の9億6,300万ドルとなりました。米国およびカナダを除く海外売上高は9%増加した一方、米国売上高は主に卸売出荷の遅延により1%減少しました。
• グローバルにおける直販（DTC）売上高は5%増加し、そのうちEC売上高が9%増、実店舗売上高が4%増となりました。米国のコロンビアブランドのEC売上高は、販促活動を抑えた中で1桁台後半の成長率を記録しました。
• 報告ベースの売上総利益率は20ベーシスポイント低下し49.8%となりました。提携工場に対する支援措置や関税還付による50ベーシスポイントの純対前年逆風を除いた実質的な売上総利益率は、30ベーシスポイント拡大しました。
• 営業利益率は11.4%に達し、報告ベースのEPSは前年同期の0.95ドルから1.66ドルに増加しました。2025年第3四半期の2,900万ドルの減損損失を除いた実質的な営業利益率は、120ベーシスポイント拡大しました。
• 経営陣は2026年第4四半期の売上高成長率を3.5%〜7%、EPSを1.85ドル〜2.10ドルと見込んでいます。通期ガイダンスでは売上高成長率を2%〜3%、報告ベースのEPSを4.65ドル〜4.90ドルとしています。
• 当四半期中、2027年春モデルの卸売受注残高が拡大しました。経営陣は現在、2027年上半期の卸売成長率について、米国およびグローバルの双方で1桁台半ばを見込んでいます。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

コロンビアブランドの売上高は、1桁台後半のDTC成長とほぼ横ばいの卸売売上高に支えられ、3%増加しました。経営陣は、「ACCELERATE」戦略が特にECのアクセス数、コンバージョン率、定価販売率の向上を通じて米国で浸透しつつあると述べました。

フリース製品が主要な牽引役となりました。「Helvetia」フリースは新しいカラーやプリント、ターゲットを絞ったマーケティングの展開により好調を維持し、新製品の「MTR」フリースも初期需要が非常に力強い動きを見せました。「Amaze Puff」は昨秋シーズンにほぼ完売したのに続き、引き続き主要な売れ筋商品であり、2026年秋の最大の成長ドライバーとなっています。

コロンビアブランドのフットウェア売上高は1桁台半ばの成長率を記録しました。「Omni-MAX」テクノロジーを搭載した「Peak Freak」「Tellurix」「Konos」シリーズなどのよりプレミアムなモデルが成長を牽引しました。また経営陣は、2027年春の受注残高においてフットウェアの伸びがアパレルの伸びを上回ったと述べました。

フィッシングウェアブランド「Performance Fishing Gear（PFG）」は、専門店での施策、各種イベント、新商品投入により勢いを増しました。「Terminal Tech」は第3四半期中にほぼ完売し、PFGにおける2027年春の受注残高に大きく貢献しています。

海外市場は引き続き米国を上回る成長を見せました。為替変動の影響を除いた定常通貨ベースで、EMEA売上高は7%増、LAAP（ラテンアメリカ・アジア太平洋）売上高は10%増となりました。国別では中国が10%台前半、日本が10%台前半、韓国が10%台後半の成長率を記録しました。経営陣は、厳しいマクロ経済環境および競合環境の中、現地での的確な事業遂行と市場シェア拡大が中国の業績につながったとしています。

新興ブランドの中では、「SOREL」の売上高が主に2026年秋モデルの卸売受注好調により2%増加しました。「Mountain Hardwear」の売上高は、2026年秋モデルの卸売受注減少やクリアランス販売が影響し17%減少しましたが、定価販売のアウターウェアや新製品に対するEC需要によって一部相殺されました。

棚卸資産は、2026年秋モデルの入荷遅延や、物流リードタイム長期化に伴う2027年春モデルの生産前倒しにより増加しました。経営陣は、輸送中だった遅延在庫の大部分がすでに物流センターに到着しており、関連する物流の混乱は過去のものとなった（解消した）と述べています。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

通期の売上総利益率の見通しは160〜180ベーシスポイントの改善を示しており、提携工場への支援費用を控除した関税還付による約180ベーシスポイントのプラス効果を含んでいます。

経営陣によると、約3,000万ドルの卸売売上高が第3四半期から第4四半期へ移行し、各四半期の成長率にそれぞれ約2.5〜3ポイントの影響を与えました。第4四半期について同社は、第3四半期末の好調な勢いを反映し、実店舗のDTC成長率は第3四半期と概ね同水準、EC成長率は10%台前半を見込んでいます。

同社は2027年通期のガイダンスを開示していません。経営陣は第4四半期決算発表時にその見通しを発表する見込みです。

リスクと注目点

• サプライチェーンの遅延が米国、欧州、カナダにおける2026年秋モデルの卸売出荷タイミングに影響を及ぼしましたが、経営陣は物流の混乱がほぼ解消したと述べています。
• 棚卸資産は金額ベースで11%増、数量ベースで10%増となりましたが、これは物流リードタイムの長期化に対応して2027年春モデルの生産を前倒ししたことなどが要因です。
• 経営陣は、米国の追加関税の可能性をめぐる不確実性を挙げ、2027年後半には製品仕入コストの圧力が強まると予想しています。同社はこれらのコスト圧力を軽減するため、一部商品の価格を引き上げています。
• 直近の伸びにもかかわらず、中国市場は依然として厳しいマクロ経済環境と激化する競争環境に晒されています。
• 天候は、特に卸売事業において、第4四半期の需要に大きな影響を与える変数であり続けています。
• 通期の売上総利益率には関税に関連するかなりの純利益が含まれており、これが2027年の前年比較における考慮要素（比較対象）となります。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

経営陣は米国EC業績の改善について、単一の製品やキャンペーンによるものではなく、アクセス数の増加、コンバージョン率の向上、およびオンラインブランド体験の刷新によるものと説明しました。過去2四半期で新規顧客の伸びが加速し、第3四半期は2023年以降で最も力強い新規顧客獲得の伸びを記録しました。

2027年春モデルの受注残高について、経営陣は90日前に公表した1桁台前半〜半ばの成長ペースから改善したと述べました。同社は現在、上半期の卸売成長率を1桁台半ばと見込んでおり、米国での1桁台前半〜半ばの成長に対し、海外市場は引き続きそれを上回る成長を見込んでいます。

ジム・スワンソン最高財務責任者（CFO）は、会社予想を約2,500万ドル上回った第3四半期の売上高のうち、約2,000万ドルは卸売出荷タイミングの改善によるものであり、残りはDTC事業の好調によるものだと説明しました。同氏は、2026年第4四半期と2027年第1四半期の間で目立った出荷時期のズレは予想されていないと語りました。

経営陣は、小売業者が適切な（健全な）在庫水準でシーズンに入ったとし、「Amaze」コレクションやフリース製品の実売（セルスルー）は順調であると伝えています。また、2026年秋モデルの注文キャンセルに関して目立った変化は見られないと述べました。

2027年の収益性について経営陣は、売上高の成長次第で販管費が更なるレバレッジ（利益率改善）の推進力となり得ると述べました。一方、関税、価格設定、仕入コスト、プロモーション、値下げをめぐる不確実性を理由に、売上総利益率の見通しは示しませんでした。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Columbia Sportswear Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions]

It is now my pleasure to hand the floor over to your host, Matt Tucker. Sir, the floor is yours.

Matthew Tucker

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us to discuss Columbia Sportswear Company's Third Quarter Results. In addition to the earnings release, we furnished an 8-K containing a detailed CFO commentary and financial review presentation explaining our results. This document is also available on our Investor Relations website, investor.columbia.com. With me today on the call are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tim Boyle; Co-Presidents, Joe Boyle and Peter Bragdon; Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Swanson; and Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer and General Counsel, Richelle Luther.

This conference call will contain forward-looking statements regarding Columbia's expectations, anticipations or beliefs about the future. These statements are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis. However, each forward-looking statement is subject to many risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from what is projected. Many of these risks and uncertainties are described in Columbia's SEC filings. We caution that forward-looking statements are inherently less reliable than historical information. We do not undertake any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this conference call to conform the forward-looking statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations.

I'd also like to point out that during the call, we may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including constant currency net sales. For further information about non-GAAP financial measures and results, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and an explanation of management's rationale for referencing these non-GAAP measures, please refer to the supplemental financial information section and financial tables included in our earnings release and the appendix of our CFO commentary and financial review. Following our prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A period, during which we will limit each caller to 2 questions so we can get to everyone by the end of the hour.

Now I'll turn the call over to Tim.

Timothy Boyle

Thanks, Matt, and good afternoon. For the third quarter, we're pleased to report results that exceeded our quarterly revenue and earnings guidance. Our better-than-expected revenue growth primarily reflected a portion of delayed fall '26 wholesale orders shipping earlier than expected, coupled with improved underlying business trends in the U.S. Our operating margin also exceeded expectations. Gross margin upside was driven by higher full price realization and favorable U.S. EPC freight costs despite elevated fuel prices. SG&A expenses were lower than planned, declining year-over-year and demonstrating healthy operating leverage on disciplined spend management.

Our business outside the U.S. and Canada, which represents roughly 35% of global net sales, continues to lead our growth and maintained its strong momentum with sales up 9% versus the prior year. Our U.S. business declined 1%, but would have grown if not for the supply chain-related delays impacting the timing of wholesale shipments.

We're particularly pleased with the momentum we saw in DTC e-commerce, which provides the pinnacle expression of our brands. U.S. e-com grew mid-single-digit percent in the quarter, including high single-digit percent growth for the Columbia brand. This momentum accelerated through the quarter, including strong early sell-through of fall '26 products. Importantly, it also came with reduced promotions, consistent with our strategy of repositioning e-com as a more full-price channel. Our U.S. brick-and-mortar sales grew modestly. Stronger productivity more than offset continued traffic headwinds at our outlet doors amid a challenging macro environment.

Overall, we're highly encouraged by our third quarter performance in the U.S. Trends for the Columbia brand are stabilizing, and we're seeing continued tangible signs of progress with the Accelerate growth strategy. We are seeing this progress not only in the quality of our U.S. e-com business, but also the consumers we are attracting. Over the past 2 quarters, growth of new consumers has accelerated, and the third quarter represented the strongest growth in new consumers since 2023. An increased share of our e-com sales can be attributed to purchases by our target dynamic active and professional consumer groups. This momentum in e-com reflects the combined progress we're making in elevating our brand, product, marketing and marketplace through ACCELERATE, not any single factor product or marketing campaign. We have been building that foundation since launching our Engineered for Whatever marketing platform last August and relaunching columbia.com last September.

Earlier this year, we began amplifying our mid-funnel marketing engine with more targeted marketing, increased influencer partnerships and creative activations. Our full funnel marketing strategy is reaching our target consumers and materially improving the sell-through of our featured products. Together, these efforts provide strong indications that the strategy is gaining traction and increases our confidence that we're on the right track.

A key theme underlying our third quarter performance is the momentum we're building in fleece. We're thrilled with the sell-through we are seeing across multiple franchises. A major highlight within this category has been our Helvetia fleece, a style that first launched in 1991. This fall, we offered the Helvetia in several new bold colorways and prints, bringing new energy to an iconic legacy product, which appeal to younger targeted consumers. Additionally, to celebrate Helvetia's heritage and lean into the current '90s nostalgia, we launched our [ Fax 4 ] fleece campaign in early September, featuring a 1991 era fax machine, we challenged consumers through social media channels to be among the first 91 people to send us a fax if they could actually find a fax machine in order to receive a free fleece. The energy and engagement created by this campaign for both the Helvetia and the Columbia brand was incredible. To our surprise, we received over 8,000 faxes far exceeding our expectations.

This energy has extended beyond the Fax for Fleece campaign. Our new MTR fleece, a more premium style launched this fall has seen strong early demand. Columbia Fleece has even been positively trending on TikTok as of late. Earlier this month, we launched a special edition of our Helvetia, featuring the iconic PDX airport color carpet. It sold out within minutes online and consumers lined up around the block at our Portland flagship store. Earlier this week, we launched our latest campaign with our Don't panic Room contest. Similar to our highly successful Expedition Impossible campaign, we are challenging consumers to submit videos, this time highlighting their survival skills. The winner will receive the actual Don't Panic Room Bunker. It's been modified as the shipping container and it's filled with essentials needed to survive anything that mother nature throws at you.

The Don't Panic Room includes spacious living quarters, nonperishable supplies and most importantly, plenty of Columbia gear. We are seeing the momentum created by our innovative products and marketing translate into stronger marketplace positioning. The Amaze Puff launched in fall '25 continues to resonate with our target female consumers and retail partners alike. After largely selling out last fall, it's among our top sellers and biggest growth drivers for fall '26 with an expanded variety of styles and colorways. That product story will have prominent visibility within elevated retail spaces. For example, in Q4, the Amaze is being featured in dozens of [ DICK'S ] Sporting Goods House of Sport Doors and in [ Macy's ] flagship Herald Square Door in New York City.

Beyond the Amaze Puff, we're highly encouraged by the momentum in products primarily designed for and marketed to our younger target consumers and especially women. Among newer products, the Amaze sweats introduced this year are already among our top-selling women's pants. We are seeing momentum in established and refreshed styles as well. This includes the men's Rock pant, a legacy style that we redesigned and relaunched last year, targeting the dynamic active consumer. The [ Siena Hill ] jacket, a legacy women's style also sold through exceptionally well in Q3, supported by strong mid-funnel marketing. We're also excited by the momentum we see building in PFG for Performance Fishing Gear. The PFG team is doing a phenomenal job of connecting with its target consumers and communities. We have renewed our focus on brand-enhancing specialty accounts and engaged in over 40 events and activations year-to-date with several more planned throughout year-end.

In Q3, we continued bringing energy to the 30th anniversary of our iconic Bahama shirt, including a collaboration with country music superstar, Luke Combs that drove strong engagement for the brand. In June, we launched the Terminal Tech performance apparel line. It features our proprietary Omni-Shade and Omni-Wick innovations, providing all-day sun protection, breathability and comfort on the water. Terminal Tech largely sold out during Q3, and it's a key driver of our growth in PFG's Spring '27 order book.

Another key growth driver for PFG in Q3 and Spring '27 is the [ Dry Tortuga ] boot. It contributed to another solid quarter of growth for Columbia brand footwear, which was up mid-single digits percent in Q3 overall. Importantly, this growth was led by more premium styles featuring our proprietary Omni-MAX technology such as the Peak Freak and the Tellurix families in hike and the Konos in trail running.

A major highlight for our footwear business in Q3 was the continued success of our sponsored athletes on the trail, further demonstrating that our trail running product is capable of performing at the highest levels of the sport. In August, Columbia athlete [ Gabriel Rolanda ] placed 20th at the UTMB Finals in Chamonix, France. The 108-mile race around Lon Blanc is considered to be the world's most prestigious and competitive trail running event. And last month, long-time athlete, [ Yassine Dbun ] claimed a spot on the podium in the Mammoth 200 in California, where he took third place in his first career 200 Miler. Competing for over 60 hours, his Columbia Konos Trillium footwear propelled him through the rugged terrain, while his Columbia apparel kept him protected and comfortable through a wide variety of challenging conditions. Big congrats to our athletes and product teams who continue to demonstrate that Columbia truly owns the trail.

Turning back to third quarter financial performance. Net sales increased 2% to $963 million, driven by growth in international markets, partially offset by a modest decline in the U.S. From a channel perspective, our DTC business grew 5% globally, including 9% growth in e-com and 4% growth in brick-and-mortar. Our wholesale business was relatively flat versus the prior year. This primarily reflected double-digit percent growth in Asia direct wholesale and EMEA region distributors, offset by unfavorable shipment timing from supply chain delays impacting the U.S. and Europe direct wholesale. That said, these delays had less impact on Q3 net sales than we anticipated when we provided guidance 3 months ago.

Wholesale delivery timing was the primary driver of upside versus our Q3 revenue guidance, followed by stronger-than-expected U.S. DTC performance. Third quarter gross margin declined 20 basis points to 49.8% on a reported basis. This includes a 50 basis point headwind from accommodations to our factory partners, net of tariff refunds recognized in the quarter. Excluding this impact, underlying gross margins expanded 30 basis points, primarily due to lower DTC freight costs.

SG&A expenses declined 1%, primarily reflecting lower corporate overhead costs on disciplined expense management and some shift of planned marketing spend to the fourth quarter. This was partly offset by higher incentive compensation accruals and DTC expenses. The result was SG&A leverage of 140 basis points compared to the prior year, leading to the operating margins of 11.4%.

As a reminder, our Q3 ' 25 operating income included $29 million in onetime impairment charges. Excluding this prior year impact, our underlying operating margin expanded by 120 basis points. This overall performance resulted in reported EPS of $1.66 compared to $0.95 in the prior year. Inventories increased 11% versus the prior year in dollar terms with units up 10%. This growth primarily reflects higher in-transit inventory from delayed Fall '26 receipts. Overall inventory composition remains healthy. We continue to maintain our fortress balance sheet, exiting the quarter with $230 million in cash and short-term investments and no debt.

Looking at net sales by geography, U.S. net sales decreased 1%, reflecting greater wholesale shipment timing, partially offset by growth in DTC. Wholesale net sales declined low single-digit percent. DTC net sales grew low single-digit percent with brick-and-mortar up low single digits and e-comm growing mid-single digits.

From our review of third quarter year-over-year net sales growth in international geographies, I will reference constant currency growth rates to illustrate underlying performance in each market. EMEA net sales increased 7% overall. Europe direct net sales increased low single-digit percent driven by strong double-digit percent growth in DTC despite unfavorable weather and a challenging macro environment. This was partially offset by a decline in wholesale, reflecting Fall '26 supply chain delays. The Europe team continues doing an incredible job of connecting with our target consumers, particularly on the trail. Our Hike Society events in Q3 remained highly popular and continue to sell out, driving energy and awareness for our brand.

Key highlights in the quarter included full funnel marketing campaign around the launches of our [ Peak 3 ] hiking shoe and our Street Tech apparel line. Street Tech is an exciting new collection representing the evolution of outdoor sportswear, remixing technical outdoor function into streetwear-led styles for a youth audience. Street Tech launched recently and was sold into some of our leading partners such as [ JD Sports, Zalando and ASOS ]. Early indications show high consumer engagement and strong sell-through with the target demographic.

Our EMEA distributor business grew in the high 30% range, primarily reflecting fall '26 shipment timing versus the prior year, which more heavily weighted Q2. Key growth drivers included hike, supported by Columbia Hike Society events sponsored in several countries. We also saw strong growth and sell-through in Outdoor Lifestyle, driven by Fleece and the Rock Path as well as in PFG.

LAAP net sales increased 10%. China net sales grew low teens percent, reflecting growth across channels amid a challenging macro and competitive environment. The China team continues to do a great job of increasing its share of business with younger consumers, connecting with local communities through Columbia Hike Society and outdoor club events. A key highlight included our Hike Party 3.0, a first-of-its-kind activation for the launch of our new railway Rambler interchange jacket. The event combined hiking, fishing and kayaking and attracted millions of impressions on social channels with hundreds of thousands of viewers tuning into the live stream. We were also pleased with successful campaigns featuring our [ Peak 3 ] hiking footwear and our China exclusive transit apparel line.

Japan net sales increased low double-digit percent with growth across channels, reflecting healthy demand for fall season products. Key product drivers included women's pants, Konos footwear and rainwear, which was helped by unusual rainy and cool conditions during September.

Korea net sales increased high teens percent, driven by strong wholesale growth, reflecting a higher Fall '26 order book. Key drivers in the quarter included the [indiscernible] fleece, trending lightweight down styles and [indiscernible] footwear styles. These were supported by elevated in-store presentations and a successful fall campaign, leveraging the engineered fluid of global brand platform.

Our LAAP distributor markets declined low single-digit percent, primarily reflecting earlier fall shipment timing that landed in Q2 versus the prior year. Canada net sales were relatively flat overall. This primarily reflected the decline in wholesale sales due to supply chain delays leading to later shipments versus the prior year. This was offset by growth in DTC, particularly e-com. Key growth drivers in the quarter included the [indiscernible] collection, hiking footwear and fleece. Our Canada team also continues to find unique ways to engage new, younger consumers. For example, we sponsored a hike in Q3 to the top of [indiscernible], capped off with a yoga class on the Summit. We also held an event at the Toronto International Film Festival, connecting and introducing our brand and products to numerous influencers and cultural tastemakers.

Looking at third quarter performance by brand. Columbia net sales increased 3%, reflecting high single-digit percent growth in DTC and relatively flat wholesale sales.

Turning now to our emerging brands. As a reminder, each of these brands derive a significant majority of their revenue from the U.S. marketplace. SOREL net sales increased 2%, primarily driven by growth in wholesale on stronger Fall '26 orders. A key highlight for SOREL in the quarter was the launch of the [ Ambler ], a new franchise rooted in the iconic style of the [ Cariboo ] boot. The [ Ambler ] has seen encouraging sell-through in DTC e-com to date, supported by creative full funnel marketing, activations, collaborations and influencer partnerships. [ Prama ] net sales declined 1%, primarily reflecting lower DTC e-com sales, largely due to the late arrival of Fall '26 inventory. This was partially offset by growth in wholesale and DTC brick-and-mortar. A key highlight was the opening earlier this month of its fourth branded store in [ Burlingame ], California. With Fall '26 products now fully in stock, we expect [ Prama ] to rebound with a stronger Q4.

Mountain Hardwear net sales declined 17% year-over-year, primarily reflecting lower Fall '26 wholesale orders and closeout sales. While it was a challenging quarter overall for Mountain Hardwear, a bright spot was the strong U.S. wholesale growth in full-price outerwear. This was driven by our new patent-pending stretchdown innovation, [ DoppleWeave ], which provides both flexible warmth and unrestricted movement. Additionally, Mountain Hardwear's new lifestyle line, Hardware Supply launched in Fall '26 in DTC e-com and [ RAI ] doors. It contributed to growth in e-com for the quarter with strong sell-through to date.

We were thrilled to announce last month that [ Peter Rouch ] has assumed the role of President of Mountain Hardwear. Peter is a highly experienced and respected leader who has been with the Columbia family for nearly 20 years in different leadership roles. Most recently, Peter was the GM of the Columbia Brands North America region, leading the business through the initial phase of Accelerate growth strategy. Peter also previously spent several years leading our Asia direct businesses. He brings deep knowledge of our industry and consumers, a track record of delivering business results and a genuine passion for the outdoors. Mountain Hardwear continues to have tremendous growth potential, and we're confident Peter is the right leader to guide Mountain Hardwear into its next chapter.

We're also pleased that [ Troy Sycott ], Mountain Hardwear's President for the past 5 years, will remain with the brand as Global Vice President of Sales. Troy played a pivotal role in strengthening the brand and building a strong foundation for future success. His deep industry expertise and strong retailer partnerships position him well to help drive the brand's next phase of growth and success. With Peter moving to Mountain Hardwear, Columbia Brand President, Joe Boyle, is being supported by a strong bench of leaders within our North America DTC and wholesale businesses.

We'll now discuss our financial outlook for the fourth quarter of '26 and the full year. This outlook and commentary include forward-looking statements. Please see our CFO commentary and financial review presentation for additional details and disclosures related to those statements.

For the fourth quarter, we anticipate sales growth of 3.5% to 7%. We expect fourth quarter EPS to be in the range of $1.85 to $2.10. This brings our full year sales outlook to a revised range of up 2% to 3% versus the prior year and brings our full year EPS guidance to a range of $4.65 to $4.90 on a reported basis. We continue to expect full year reported gross margins of 52.1% to 52.3% on a reported basis or up 160 to 180 basis points versus the prior year. As a reminder, this includes a roughly 180 basis point benefit from tariff refunds, net of accommodations to factory partners. We now expect that SG&A will represent 43.8% to 44% of net sales, increasing slightly year-over-year but at a slower rate than the net sales growth. Based on these assumptions, we anticipate reported operating margins in the range of 8.7% to 9.1% for the year.

Now I'll provide an early update on our 2027 outlook. While we intend to provide full year 2027 guidance on our Q4 call, we're currently forecasting wholesale growth in the mid-single-digit percent range, both in the U.S. and globally for the first half of '27. This is supported by our wholesale spring order book, which improved from low to mid-single-digit growth since our last call.

In closing, I'm highly encouraged by our Q3 results amid dynamic and challenging market conditions. From a consumer standpoint, it's been just over 13 months since we launched our ACCELERATE growth strategy into the marketplace. This quarter's performance provides us with further proof points and greater confidence that our strategy is gaining traction. At the same time, I'm even more excited about the opportunity that we have ahead of us and that we will continue to work to elevate the Columbia brand and improve consumers' perceptions in the U.S. There is still significant room for improvement. I'm confident that we have the strategies in place, combined with our talented and energized global workforce to return our business to a path of long-term sustainable growth.

That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, can you help us with the questions?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Jonathan Komp from Baird.

質疑応答

Jonathan Komp

I want to follow up on the encouraging improvement you're seeing in the U.S. D2C performance. And really, I want to ask if you see that trend continuing here going forward and some of the drivers that get you excited here? And the commentary on 2027 orders, do you think that relates to the positive D2C performance resulting in stronger orders from some of your partners? Or any other color there would be helpful.

Timothy Boyle

Certainly. Well, e-comm for Colombia is just one part of our ACCELERATE system and that we're using to make the business better. And I would say, if you took a look at our website and ancillary items on the site by comparison to last year to this year, you'd see a dramatic difference in how the garments appear, how the footwear appears. We really made a distinct effort to make our e-com business the pinnacle of the Columbia brand, where it has the most and best recommendations.

So if we talk about the success, it's really a function of better traffic, more traffic as a result of our ACCELERATE activities. And then once consumers are there on the site, better conversion and really a better environment and a better experience for consumers. So that's really how we're seeing the improvements in North American e-com.

As it relates to our spring -- to our '27 business, Spring '27 order book just continue to strengthen, and that's based on a number of factors. I think likely the continued exposure of our various activations and marketing efforts as it relates to ACCELERATE. And we're just now starting to sell Fall '27. So our expectations are quite bright, and I'm expecting that we're going to see great things.

Jonathan Komp

That's great to hear. And then maybe, Jim, if I could follow up, thinking through a bit more just directionally some of the cost factors into 2027. You'll be cycling the refunds certainly in an inflationary environment broadly. Do you think SG&A becomes a lever that you intend to pull a little more aggressively to drive underlying margin expansion? Or any other color there would be helpful.

Jim Swanson

Yes. Thanks for the question, John. Certainly, we're not looking to provide any forward-looking guidance. As we look out to next year, not unlike this year, we would fully expect that we're able to leverage the SG&A line, all dependent upon how we come in ultimately on a full year basis from a revenue growth standpoint.

And I would emphasize just a couple of points as it relates to the gross margin. One, I think you nailed a good point in terms of adjusting for the tariff refund net of the factory accommodations that we've realized this year to the tune of about 180 basis points. Beyond that, it's really difficult, and we're in the midst of our planning process right now. There's obviously a lot of uncertainty as we look ahead as it relates specifically to whether there's any additional tariffs imposed by the administration. Certainly, there are product input cost pressures that will increasingly impact us in the latter part of next year. We are taking surgical price increases where we can to help mitigate those. So those are among the factors we're looking at. But going beyond that and providing specific guidance, we can't do that today.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Bob Drbul from BTIG.

Robert Drbul

A couple of questions just on the Q3, Q4 for a second it is -- so when you guys look at the inventory levels, the in-transit situation coming out of the second quarter into the third quarter, has everything normalized now as you think about what you're seeing? And within sort of the Q4 outlook, have you seen any material order cancellations or changes to the sort of Fall '26 order book around the business?

Timothy Boyle

Yes. So Bob, as it relates to the in-transit inventory, that's primarily now been delivered to our various distribution centers and is on its way if it has not already been received by our customers. So that the logistics issues that we believe is behind us. As it relates to Q4, we get orders every day, we get cancels every day, but there's no meaningful change in anything that we've seen from the order book perspective. And we run a global business. It's highly complex. And so we've given you the best advice that we can and guidance about where we believe that Q4 will end up.

Jim Swanson

I think one other point, Bob, as it relates to the inventory side of the equation is Tim I think we're well received to fulfill the remaining demand that we've got for Fall '26 coming into the fourth quarter. A big chunk of the increase in our inventory at the end of the quarter and what we're now projecting at the end of the year, we have accelerated our Spring '27 production in light of longer logistics lead times.

So just one thing to keep in mind as you think about the overall growth in our inventory is really current and future season inventory, and it's timing related.

Robert Drbul

Got it. And I guess just as you think about where we are in the fourth quarter right now, do you see elevated risk with weather or anything as it relates to especially your wholesale business, Tim?

Timothy Boyle

Well, nothing out of the ordinary, Bob. Our business is highly reactionary to weather. And so we're going to continue to watch it, but we have no expectations that it's going to be anything other than a normal weather.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Peter McGoldrick from Stifel.

Peter McGoldrick

I wanted to dive in on the order books for spring/summer '27. I was hoping you could help us think through the relative regional momentum compared to what we're seeing in the second half of 2026. And how should we be thinking about the split of growth drivers between volume, price and mix?

Jim Swanson

Yes. As it relates to the -- so first and foremost, I'd say we're awfully encouraged by where the Spring '27 order book has come in. 90 days ago, we had indicated to you that, that was up a low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage, as Tim touched on, the order book continued to come in over the course of the past couple of months, and we now reflect visibility we have, we anticipate first half wholesale growth in the mid-single-digit range.

As you think about that from a geographic standpoint, and I think encouragingly from our standpoint, and I think another indicator of the work that's going on from an ACCELERATE standpoint, that does include low to mid-single-digit rate of growth also in our U.S. wholesale business. I think it leans more to the mid-single digit. and continued momentum in our international markets. Our international growth is anticipated to continue to outpace the U.S. side of business. So all in all, we're quite pleased. I think it's another -- like I said, another strong indication of the work that's been going on from an ACCELERATE standpoint.

Timothy Boyle

Yes. I would also point out that footwear growth was larger than apparel growth for us. Very encouraging.

Peter McGoldrick

Very good. And then just on the strategy to recruit more younger active consumers. Can you give us an update on anything to support that, quantify any of the drivers there? And then how that's influencing the overall engagement with the consumer audience, whether it be price willingness to spend or frequency of purchase any -- or traffic patterns with these new dynamic audiences?

Joseph Boyle

Yes. Thanks. So as it relates to the consumers we're seeing in the engagement with engineered for whatever campaign, year-over-year improvements we've seen in both consideration and purchase intent among our target audiences on the professional lease and the dynamic actives. And new customer growth in e-com with an increasing share of the business coming from those target audiences is really showing momentum in the ACCELERATE strategy as it relates to consumers.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Mitch Kummetz from Seaport Research.

Mitchel Kummetz

I guess first question, I just want to ask maybe Bob's question a different way. Tim, when you look at your retail partners, how do you think they're feeling about the winter season to date, just kind of given what early sell-through trends have been as well as kind of where channel inventory currently stands?

Timothy Boyle

Well, we've been very successful on the merchandise that we've delivered is selling through, especially in the Amaze collection and as well our fleece offerings. I think the fleece offerings are dramatically improving in terms of the sell-through. Some of that is the emphasis we've had under our ACCELERATE, where we focused heavily on this product called the Helvetia, which is a 1991 garment that we've been selling since that period. And we really revitalized it through some activations as well as new colorways, et cetera.

So I think consumers and especially retailers are very excited about what's happening with the business. They see the unusual and I would say, differentiating activations we've done around flat earth and about the Don't Panic room, which we just launched yesterday. And it's changing their perceptions of Columbia as a as a brand. And I think we're very excited about the future.

Jim Swanson

Mitch, I would just add that I think coming into the season, retailers were exceptionally clean on their inventory positions. And then as it relates to the outlook that we provide, I think we provided an adequate range of outcome for a variety of different weather conditions.

Mitchel Kummetz

Okay. And then my follow-up question for you, Jim. In terms of the sales and EBIT beat in the third quarter, how much of that was related to shifts in sales and spending versus plan versus just over deliver in the quarter? And on the over delivery is what really drove that if you had to sort of pinpoint it? And then I guess maybe just the last part of this question, are there any shifts contemplated in the fourth quarter outlook, shifts going from 4Q into 1Q '27?

Jim Swanson

Yes, far less on the latter piece. I don't think we've got any meaningful timing differences between Q4 and Q1. As it relates to the third quarter, the beat from a revenue standpoint, certainly the lion's share of that related to timing. I think it was to the tune of -- if we've got a revenue beat that's in the $25 million range, call it, $20 million of that is related to better wholesale shipments and then the balance would be the D2C business.

So I think the key to all of that, Mitch, would be, one, yes, we were able to deliver a bit earlier than we had expected coming into the quarter. But I think importantly, in all of this, as you look at the underlying trend in our U.S. business, particularly in the D2C and in the e-commerce channel, we were awfully encouraged by a notable change. And I think that's the collective efforts of what Joe and his team have done over the better part of the last year from an accelerate standpoint, that all coming together. So nice to see those overall changes.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Laurent Vasilescu from BNP Paribas.

Laurent Vasilescu

I wanted to follow up on your China number. I think last quarter, China on a constant currency basis grew mid-single digits. And this quarter, a little step up here, low teens. Curious to know -- I know your business is humming there, but curious to know what you're seeing in the environment there. It seems like it's just a challenged environment, but it seems like at the same time, you're improving that business. And how do we think about -- I know you don't guide explicitly for China on a full year basis, but should we kind of see that momentum continue in low double digits into the fourth quarter?

Jim Swanson

Yes, I can take that, Laurent. As it relates to China and looking at the execution of that marketplace, and there was some acceleration, as you noted, from Q2 into Q3. I think we would attribute that to the local marketplace strategies and the execution around that. I think our China team has done an exceptional job. I think we would also acknowledge that the macro environment in China, it's challenging. I think it's gotten incrementally more challenging during the quarter. I think the competitive nature of what's going on there is also holding to be true in terms of just increased competition. And I think our team is doing a great job in executing in an otherwise difficult marketplace. and taking some market share.

As we look out to the fourth quarter, I don't have the specifics on China, but I think we continue to forecast on a full year basis that we would see double-digit percent level growth in China. So really happy with what we've seen there.

Laurent Vasilescu

Very good. And then in your CFO commentary, I know you reiterated your gross margin, but within the fine bullet points, I noticed you mentioned higher incremental U.S. tariffs. I'm just curious like what was -- what's your assumption on tariffs because we're still close to the end of the year. I'm just curious to know like what is -- what's driving that as a source of pressure for the balance of the year because we really don't have any news from the White House.

And then on the flip side, I noticed that you removed higher DTC promotions as a headwind. So I'm just curious to know those puts and takes, if you can unpack that for the audience.

Jim Swanson

Yes. Good question. As it relates to the higher incremental U.S. tariffs that's noted in our gross margin outlook, frankly, that probably should have been there previously. And essentially, what that is, when you look on a year-on-year basis, -- this year, we've got the full year's impact of the incremental tariffs, albeit rates have been changing throughout the year, whereas last year, the tariffs really didn't start coming into place until midway through the third quarter and then the fourth quarter. So it's just a year-on-year comparison. The offset to that is the high single-digit price increases that we implemented for both Spring '26 and Fall '26. So effectively, those 2 things are neutral or neutralizing each other.

And then with regard to the removal of the slight headwind as it relates to D2C promotions, I think there's dependent upon geography and brand. There's certainly some promotional some promotional activity out there. China would be, I think, an example of that. We saw a little bit of that in Europe as well. But then the counter to it as well, as you've seen is we've had better full price realization within our D2C e-com business, and we are making a very concerted effort and decision to pull back on those promotion levels. So those are more or less offsetting as the reason why you're not seeing that appear in the overall gross margin bridge.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Mauricio Serna from UBS.

Mauricio Serna Vega

I wanted to ask, I think on the fourth quarter outlook, you're guiding to 3.5% to 7% growth. Just wanted to make sure, is there like an impact from shipment? I don't know if you quantified that, if you could tell us just the impact on Q4 sales growth outlook from that front. Any way that on the DTC part in the U.S., it's nice to see that inflection to positive. Any way of how you're thinking about that business in Q4? Like are you thinking that, that business can sustain that positive growth across both channels?

Jim Swanson

Yes. I appreciate the question. As it relates to the timing shifts between Q3 and Q4, it's about a $30 million shift. And so for each of the 2 quarters, it's in the 2.5 to 3 percentage points impact to revenue growth. So keep that in mind as a component of what you're seeing in the 3.5% to 7% if you adjust for that in both quarters. And then as it pertains to the direct-to-consumer business in the fourth quarter, we've planned that business more or less in line with what we realized in Q3. So if you look at our D2C brick mortgages business being up 4% in the third quarter, we're more or less planning at a commensurate level in the fourth quarter. The e-commerce business, I think we planned slightly more aggressively. We finished high single digit, 8%, 9% growth in Q3. We've got a plan, I think, is a low double-digit percent level for the fourth quarter. And that would be somewhat indicative of the improvement that we saw in the trend in that part of our business throughout the third quarter and the exit rate. So we feel good about the outlook that we're providing here today from an overall top line perspective.

Mauricio Serna Vega

Got it. And if I could just have a quick follow-up on just -- I know you haven't given guidance for next year, but is the right way to think about the 2027 gross margin, just take out the 180 basis points of the refund and then layer in things like freight, raw material and I guess, like promos is the right way to think about it like flattish year-over-year?

Jim Swanson

Yes, really tough to provide any indication on that. I mean, yes, as it relates to adjusting for the tariff refunds and the factory accommodations, but going above and beyond that in terms of all the different variables on promotional and markdown activity, where we're taking pricing, the process of cost pressure. There's a lot of variables there. We're in the middle of our planning process, and we look forward to providing an update on that in February at our year-end call.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Tom Nikic from Needham.

Tom Nikic

I wanted to ask about the progress you've made on the ACCELERATE strategy. And I'm kind of curious, things like product and marketing, like are they where you want to get them to? Like is there still kind of more progress to be made on improving the product or improving the marketing? Just kind of curious where we stand there.

Joseph Boyle

Yes. Thanks for the question. This is Joe Boyle. ACCELERATE the long-term strategy. So we're very encouraged with some of the momentum we're seeing, particularly around our consumer focus and being able to reach them with the marketing, which I'll remind, Engineer for Whatever is just a little more than a year old. So we're making a lot of progress with engineer for whatever targeting the consumers. And then as it relates to the product, both focusing on new products that we've designed and developed around these consumer segments like the Amaze Puff, MTR fleece, Helvetia fleece, which is really a new product for a lot of these new consumers, even though it's a incarnation of a classic product that we have.

And even in footwear, as we look at the products we're making, specifically around attracting consumers through ACCELERATE, a lot of progress being made there in footwear across the board and particularly in products focused with Omni-MAX as well.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I'll now hand the conference back to Tim Boyle for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Timothy Boyle

Thanks, operator, and thanks to everyone who joined the call today. I'd like to close the call by thanking our global workforce for their continued commitment and strong performance through the first 9 months of this year. Like Mother Nature, the global business environment can be volatile and unpredictable.

So far this year, we've navigated tariff uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, soaring energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Through it all, our teams have weathered the storm, focused on what we can control and positioned us to achieve the upper half of our initial 2026 sales and earnings guidance. As usual, our fourth quarter performance will remain critical to achieving our full year goals. Despite what you've heard, winter is coming, and we are ready for it. We wish all of you and your families a safe and happy holiday season and look forward to updating you on our progress again in a few months. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.