ロケット・カンパニーズ（RKT）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：利益率29%と第4四半期見通し

主要なポイント

• ロケット・カンパニーズ（NYSE: RKT）が発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後売上高は26億ドル、調整後EBITDAは7億4,800万ドル、調整後EBITDA利益率は29%となり、利益率は過去ほぼ5年で最高水準となりました。
• 調整後純利益は4億1,900万ドル（希薄化後1株あたり0.15ドル）でした。総売上高33億ドルに基づくGAAP純利益は7億900万ドル（希薄化後1株あたり0.25ドル）でした。
• 推定新規購入市場シェアは第2四半期の6.2%から6.5%近くに達し、借り換えシェアは14.3%から15.5%に拡大しました。
• ロケットの当四半期末時点の流動性は過去最高の114億ドルに達し、これには27億ドルの現金が含まれます。純有利子負債倍率（ネット・レバレッジ）は1倍未満を維持しました。
• 経営陣は、住宅ローン金利の上昇、季節的な低迷、および借り換え市場の前四半期比で50%近くの縮小が見込まれることが事業活動を圧迫するとして、第4四半期の調整後売上高を21億ドル〜23億ドルと予想しています。
• 同社は第3四半期までにMr. Cooper買収に伴う経費シナジー効果を年率換算で3億ドル実現しており、当初計画を1年前倒しして第4四半期には目標である4億ドル全額を達成する見込みです。

主要財務業績

事業・営業業績

ロケットによると、今年の売上高の70%以上が、サービシング（管理回収）手数料、サブスクリプション、新規購入住宅ローン、キャッシュアウト借り換え、ホーム・エクイティ製品など、継続的または金利感応度の低い収益源によるものでした。

第3四半期のサービシング部門の手数料収入は10億ドルとなりました。ロケットは910万人の顧客に対し、2兆ドルの元本未償還残高のサービシングを行いました。金利上昇に伴い、ヘッジ控除後の住宅ローン・サービシング権（MSR）の公正価値は7億1,000万ドルに増加しました。

ホーム・エクイティ・ローンの取扱高は過去最高を記録しました。年初来のホーム・エクイティ顧客の約3分の2は、第1抵当権住宅ローンも同社でサービシングされていました。経営陣によると、統合サービシング・ポートフォリオ全体のリキャプチャー率（顧客維持率）は過去最高に達し、旧Mr. Cooperポートフォリオのリキャプチャー率は、2027年末の目標値である65%に対し60%に達しました。

新規購入の成長は、Rocket Local、Redfin、Compassによって支えられました。Rocket Localの取扱高は前年同期比で30%以上増加し、主要大都市圏で400人以上の融資担当者を擁しています。新規購入顧客の5人に1人がRedfinまたはCompassのエージェントを介していました。

新規購入住宅ローンの手続きを開始するためにクリックしたRedfinの訪問者数は前年同期比で50%増加し、Redfinからの借り換えリードは2倍以上に拡大しました。Compassの累積ユニーク物件掲載数は前四半期の約2万5,000件から4万件近くに増加しました。2月以降、Compass経由のRocket Pro純金利ロック取扱高は30億ドルを超えました。

ロケットはまた、約200社のRocket Proブローカー・パートナーを追加しました。これは年間120億ドルの潜在的な取扱高に相当します。

テクノロジーは引き続き、効率化と成約率向上の中核的な推進力となっています。直販部門の取扱高の約20%において、AIが融資担当者との接触前に与信確認の手続きを完了させました。デジタル申請は直販部門の借り換え申請の40%以上を占め、他のチャネルの4倍の成約率を記録しました。AI音声エージェントはサービシングへの問い合わせ電話の65%に対応し、その半数以上をオペレーターの補助なしで解決しました。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

2026年第4四半期について、経営陣は調整後売上高を21億ドル〜23億ドルと予想しています。この見通しは、継続的な市場シェア拡大を想定しているものの、季節的な低迷、過去数十年で最高水準に近い住宅ローン金利、および第3四半期からの借り換え市場のほぼ50%の縮小を見込んでいます。

売上高予想の中央値に基づくと、経営陣は総費用を25億0,000万ドルと見込んでいます。これには無形資産償却費1億1,000万ドル、株式報酬費用8,000万ドル、一時的な統合費用1,000万ドルが含まれます。これらの項目を除外した費用は18億5,000万ドルとなり、第3四半期から1億6,500万ドルの減少を見込んでいます。

ロケットは第4四半期に、年率換算で残りの1億ドルのMr. Cooperコスト削減を実現し、年間シナジー総額を4億ドルにする予定です。また、Mr. Cooperの目標とは別に、2027年上半期にさらに年間1億ドルのコスト削減を見込んでいます。

経営陣は、ロケットには追加の固定費を必要とせずに3,000億ドル以上の融資実行能力があると述べました。同社は需要に対してその能力を評価しており、次回の決算発表でさらに詳細を説明する予定です。

リスクと注視すべき分野

住宅ローン金利は第3四半期開始時の6.4%から9月末には7.3%に上昇しました。住宅ローンの申し込みは当四半期の13週のうち10週で減少し、第2四半期の平均を23%下回りました。

経営陣によると、第4四半期に入った時点でMBA購入申請指数は前年同期比で約20%低下し、借り換え申請は50%以上低下しました。ロケットのリアルタイム・データは、第4四半期の住宅ローン市場全体の活動が業界予想を大幅に下回り、過去数十年で最低水準に近くなる可能性があることを示しています。

同社は、金利・期間変更目的の借り換えにおいて最も強い圧力がかかると予想しています。キャッシュアウト借り換えや第2順位抵当権のホーム・エクイティ製品は比較的堅調を維持すると期待されますが、業績は引き続き住宅ローン金利、住宅需要、および季節要因の影響を受けやすい状況です。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

アナリストの関心は、費用の柔軟性、市場シェア拡大の持続可能性、価格戦略、サービシングにおける顧客維持（リキャプチャー）、および資本配分に集中しました。

経営陣によると、第4四半期における調整後費用の前四半期比1億6,500万ドルの減少予測は、Mr. Cooperシナジーの完全実現と取扱高に連動する変動費を反映しています。ロケットはまた、ベンダー支出、外部委託コスト、マーケティング効率、および過剰な融資実行能力の見直しを行っています。

市場シェアについて、経営陣は4つの主要な要因を挙げました：サービシングにおける顧客維持、Redfinによるリード獲得、ホーム・エクイティ融資、およびRocket Local、Compass、Rocket Proを通じた販売網の拡大です。同社は、新規購入シェア8%、借り換えシェア20%という長期目標を改めて表明しました。

経営陣は、価格インセンティブについて、すべてのローンで一律に最低価格を提供するのではなく、投下資本利益率（ROI）に基づいていると説明しました。Compass関連の価格優遇インセンティブについては、十分な収益性をもたらしたため延長したと述べました。

ロケットは、住宅ローン・サービシング権（MSR）の買収チャネル（コレスポンデント、バルク、共同発行（コーイシュー）取引など）において引き続き積極的な姿勢を維持しています。経営陣は、同社のサービシング・コスト効率と顧客維持能力が、実行力とリターンを勘案した上での継続的なMSR投資を裏付けていると述べました。

決算説明会（電話会議）全文文字起こし

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Rocket Companies, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions].

I will now hand the conference over to Sharon Ng, Head of Investor Relations. Sharon, please go ahead.

Sharon Ng

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Rocket Company's earnings call covering the third quarter 2026. With us this afternoon are Rocket Company's CEO, Varun Krishna; and our President and CFO, Brian Brown.

Earlier today, we issued our third quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at rocketcompanies.com under Investor Info. Also available on our website is an investor presentation.

Before I turn things over to Varun, let me quickly go over our disclaimers. On today's call, we provide you with information regarding our third quarter performance as well as our financial outlook. This conference call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and the assumptions we mentioned today. We encourage you to consider the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or further events, except as required by law.

This call is being broadcast online and is accessible on our Investor Relations website. A recording of the call will be posted later today. Our commentary today will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our earnings release issued earlier today as well as in our filings with the SEC.

And with that, I'll turn things over to Varun Krishna to get us started. Varun?

Varun Krishna

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. On today's call, I'll do 3 things: walk you through the market, share our results and show you what 3 years of rebuilding Rocket has brought us.

Here's the truth about tough markets, they don't lie. They strip everything down to what's real. Who has the capital to keep investing? Whose model works in any cycle? Who can win their clients back? And who can move fast when it counts? This quarter did all of this. From June to September, the 10-year treasury rose 80 basis points to 5.3%, the highest in 24 years. The 30-year mortgage rate rose more than 80 basis points to 7.3%. On an annualized basis, existing home sales fell below 4 million. Refinance applications fell more than 50% from a year ago. Total applications declined 4 straight weeks to close the quarter. For American families trying to buy a home, the math went from hard to punishing. Well, in that exact market, we delivered.

Adjusted revenue of $2.6 billion near the midpoint of our guidance, share gains in purchase and refinance quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $748 million with margins expanding to 29%. This was our highest margin in nearly 5 years and our fourth straight quarter of expansion since we closed the Mr. Cooper transaction.

Adjusted net income of $419 million, $0.15 of adjusted EPS. Let me say that differently. In one of the hardest mortgage markets in a generation, we grew share, expanded margins and earned $0.15 of adjusted EPS. So why does Rocket win? It's no accident. Three years ago, we made a decision. Rebuild this company at every single level, an ecosystem that serves clients from home search through servicing. A technology platform built for scale, speed and efficiency, distribution that reaches homebuyers and homeowners everywhere, and a fortress balance sheet, now over $11 billion in liquidity, so we can keep investing while others pull back. That combination puts Rocket squarely in a category of 1, number 1 in purchase, refinance, home equity and servicing.

Now let me take you back to late 2023. The last time rates were this high. Back then, we were unprofitable. Today, in a market just as brutal, we earned $0.15 of adjusted EPS and grew market share. Same environment, different Rocket, durable through cycles. So the question is, where does this durability come from? It comes from 2 things: first, a business model built for any cycle. Second, technology that drives better, faster and a more affordable experience for our clients.

Let me talk about the model first. More than 70% of our revenue this year comes from recurring or less rate-sensitive sources, servicing fees, subscriptions, purchase, cash-out refinance, home equity. Let me take you inside 2 of them: Purchase and servicing. Purchase starts with Redfin and every home search begins there. Now inside every listing, there's a path to Rocket mortgage. Buyers meet us before they ever make an offer. The results, visitors who click through to start-a-purchase mortgage transaction are up 50% year-over-year. Redfin's contribution to our refinance leads also more than doubled this quarter from a year ago.

Compass simply extends that same playbook and delivers what buyers want most. Homes and the agents who sell them. Cumulative unique listings are now nearly 40,000, up from roughly 25,000 last quarter. Homes you cannot find anywhere else. Rocket Pro net rate lock volume through Compass has passed $3 billion since February, up 50% from last quarter. Then there's servicing, our ballast. More than $1 billion a quarter in servicing fees, more than $4 billion a year. That's triple where we were 3 years ago. That's recurring cash flow in any rate environment, revenue that shows up whether rates are 4% or 8%.

And here's what makes it compound because we know these clients were first in line when they're ready for their next loan. In Q3, recapture across the combined portfolio hit the highest level in our history. We recapture at a rate multiple times higher than the industry. On our platform, servicing isn't just an annuity, it is a growth engine. Home equity extends the advantage. There is a record $12 trillion in tappable home equity in this country and home equity loans let owners unlock cash without giving up their first lien rate. That's resonating with our existing client base. Year-to-date, about 2/3 of our home equity clients also have their first mortgage serviced by Rocket.

Our second advantage is technology, and I'll be very direct with this. This is where the industry's future gets decided. For most of this industry's history, a mortgage moved at the speed of paperwork and business hours, AI removes both limits. How does technology win? 4 proof points from this quarter. First is credit pulls. We reimagined how credit gets pulled across every digital lead, purchase and refinance with AI agents guiding the client all the way through. On nearly 20% of our direct-to-consumer volume, AI completed that step before the client ever spoke to a loan officer. A year ago, that number was 0. Think about what that means. Our loan officers now spend their time with clients who are ready to move forward.

Second, the fully digital refinance. We threw out the form entirely and rebuilt the experience around agents. Clients can choose to pull their credit, see their loan options and lock their rate without ever speaking to a loan officer. In Q3, digital was more than 40% of all direct-to-consumer refinance applications and digital leads converted at 4x the rate of every other channel. Same demand, more growth.

Third is voice. Our AI voice agents are now integral to how we serve every client. The platform handles 65% of inbound servicing calls and resolves more than half of them on its own. It's natural, personal and always on. Clients get answers in seconds and our people spend their time where humans excel.

Fourth is the agentic future. Consumers are starting to shop with their own AI agents, like Meta's Muse, that compare price, speed and ratings across lenders giving people more transparency and control. We saw that coming. Over the past 18 months, we built the APIs and protocols, those agents need to complete the mortgage process with Rocket end to end. And here's the thing about agents. They don't care about your brand. They care about 2 things: the best price and the easiest close, and we show up well as Rocket in both.

Put it all together, Rocket is faster, simpler and more affordable, open 24/7 across every channel from AI agents to in person. Our structural cost advantage flows straight back to clients through better rates and offers like our preferred pricing bundle.

So where do we go from here? I'll close where I started. Tough markets don't lie. They reveal what's real. And this quarter revealed a company that delivered revenue near the midpoint of guidance, expanded margins for the fourth straight quarter and took share in purchase and refinance in one of the hardest markets this industry has ever seen. Three years ago, at these rates, we lost money. Today, we make it. The rates didn't change, we did. We built Rocket to be the strongest ship in rough water. We're built to grow in any rate environment. We are not waiting for the market. We're taking the reins.

And with that, let me hand it over to Brian.

Brian Brown

Thank you, Varun, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'll walk through our third quarter results, the expense discipline behind our margin expansion and the strength of our balance sheet. I'll close with our outlook for the fourth quarter.

Let's start with the results. Q3 was a tough quarter for the mortgage industry. The 30-year fixed rate started the quarter at 6.4% and rose to 7.3% by the end of September. The MBA's mortgage application index fell in 10 of the 13 weeks during the quarter. Applications were down 23% from the second quarter average. Those headwinds have carried into the fourth quarter, which I'll cover more in our outlook.

Against that backdrop, Rocket grew share in both purchase and refinance. We expanded adjusted EBITDA margin to its highest level in nearly 5 years, and we ended the quarter with record liquidity. Adjusted revenue was $2.6 billion, near the midpoint of our guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA was $748 million, a 29% margin, up from 28% last quarter. This is our fourth consecutive quarter of margin expansion and our highest since the fourth quarter of 2021.

Adjusted net income was $419 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.15. On a GAAP basis, total revenue was $3.3 billion and net income was $709 million or $0.25 per diluted share. We generated $40.4 billion in net rate lock volume and $43.6 billion in closed loan volume. In what was a smaller market, we grew both purchase and refinance share. Based on our estimates, purchase market share approach 6.5% and refinance market share was 15.5%. That's compared to the 6.2% and 14.3% reported in the second quarter.

In purchase, our investments in distribution are paying off. Rocket Local is our team of in-market loan officers who work directly with real estate agents in their communities. Rocket Local grew volume more than 30% year-over-year and we've built the team to more than 400 loan officers across major metro areas. Our partnership with Redfin and Compass extend that reach. And today, 1 in 5 of our purchase clients is represented by our Redfin or Compass agent.

We're also growing in wholesale. Over the last few months, we've added roughly 200 new Rocket Pro partners to our platform, representing $12 billion in potential annual volume. Our loan officers and pro broker partners have the full weight of the Rocket platform behind them. They focus on relationships and the platform handles routine work. That makes them more productive and gives clients a better, faster and more affordable experience.

In refinance, home equity loans were the standout. Volume set a record as homeowners tapped into their home's values without giving up the rate on their first lien. Cash out refinance volume remained healthy, supported by another step-up in recapture. Recapture rates on the combined portfolio reached an all-time high, the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement. Gain on sale margin excluding correspondent, was 333 basis points up from 311 basis points last quarter. The increase was driven by higher direct-to-consumer margins, which rose to 431 basis points from 413 basis points in the second quarter. That improvement reflects a growing mix of home equity volume, which carries higher gain on sale margins.

As Varun shared, Rocket is a fundamentally different company than it was 3 years ago. Servicing is our foundation. We are the largest servicer in the country with $2 trillion of unpaid principal balance across 9.1 million clients. Servicing generated $1 billion of fee income for the third quarter. As rates rose, the fair market value of our MSRs, net of hedges, increased to $710 million in the quarter. Because our recapture engine acts as a natural hedge, we don't need to hedge away all the upside. And when rates fall, recapture offsets the decline in value.

Now let me walk you through what drove our profitability expansion. There are 2 parts to the story: disciplined expense management and ongoing investments in technology that give us optionality on our fixed cost structure. Starting with expenses. Total expenses were $2.3 billion, down $175 million from the second quarter. A portion of this decrease reflects synergies and the rest reflects variable costs that move with volume. Through the quarter, we have realized $300 million in Mr. Cooper expense synergies. We expect to deliver the remaining $100 million of annualized savings in the fourth quarter, reaching the full $400 million a year ahead of the original timeline. As we shared last quarter, beyond the $400 million of Mr. Cooper expense synergies, we have line of sight into an additional $100 million in annual savings, which we expect to realize in the first half of 2027.

The second driver of our profitability expansion is our technology platform. Most lenders rent their technology. We have built ours across origination and servicing, and we pair it with the richest client data sets in the industry. When you control the system and the data, you don't wait on a vendor's road map. We build AI, deploy it and scale it across the business faster than others running on a rented system. The result is an industry-leading cost to originate and service. On the top line, the AI capabilities Varun described lift conversion, turning more of the leads we already generate into closed loans and lifetime client relationships without adding acquisition cost.

On the bottom line, AI handles more of the routine work across origination and servicing and keeps lowering our cost per loan. Those savings are structural. That's where the optionality comes in. The traditional mortgage model adds capacity by adding headcount. We don't run the business that way. We've built more than $300 billion of origination capacity without needing to add fixed costs. If the market remains soft, we can align our cost structure with demand and keep the capacity we need. When the market turns, others will be hiring to catch up. We'll already have the capacity in place. We're not dependent on a rate recovery, but we're positioned to capture the upside when it comes.

Underpinning all of this is the strongest balance sheet in the industry. We ended the quarter with a record $11.4 billion of liquidity, including $2.7 billion of cash. Net corporate leverage is below 1x and we're the only independent mortgage company with an investment-grade rating.

This matters more now than at any point in the last few years. Many lenders came into this market with less capital and more leverage and higher rates are testing their balance sheets, along with their business models. In a market like this, capital isn't just defense, it's offense. We have the capital to keep investing and take advantage when opportunities arise. Investing through the cycle is how we build on the advantages we have today, our technology platform, our servicing portfolio, our ecosystem, our distribution, our brand and our talent. We're going to keep investing and keep widening that gap.

Now turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter. As I mentioned earlier, the market remains challenged. The MBA purchase Application Index is down nearly 20% year-over-year and refinance applications are down more than 50%. The fourth quarter is seasonally low for our industry. And this year, that slowdown comes at a time where mortgage rates are reaching highs we haven't seen in 2 decades. Last quarter, we told you our real-time data pointed to a third quarter mortgage market that would be smaller than Q2, something the industry had not seen since 2022. That is exactly how the third quarter played out. Today, based on our estimates, the same data points to a fourth quarter market, well below what industry forecasts indicate. More specifically, we expect the refinance market to decline by almost half from the third quarter which would leave the overall mortgage activity near multi-decade lows.

With that context, in the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted revenue to be between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion. Our guidance reflects continued share gain. And turning to expenses. At the midpoint of the revenue range, we expect total expenses of $2.50 billion, including $110 million of intangible amortization, $80 million of stock-based compensation and $10 million of onetime integration costs. Excluding these items, we expect expenses of $1.850 billion a decline of $165 million from the third quarter. As always, our guidance reflects the latest market data in our current visibility.

Let me close with this. Tough markets drive separation. This quarter, rates rose, volumes fell and the industry felt it. Rocket grew share, expanded margin, delivered synergies ahead of plan and ended the quarter with record liquidity. The fourth quarter will be harder still. We're ready for it.

With that, operator, we're ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question from the line of Ryan McKeveny with Zelman. Please go ahead.

質疑応答

Ryan McKeveny

Great. Congrats on the execution in the tough environment. So obviously, the mortgage rate backdrop has moved meaningfully higher the last couple of months. And certainly for us and Fannie Mae and kind of everybody is forecasting the origination market, obviously, outlooks have come down quite a bit, both for 4Q and '27. So I was hoping you could maybe elaborate a bit more on the backdrop that you're looking at kind of what's embedded from a market perspective within that 4Q guide, how you're thinking about market share. And to the extent you're willing to talk a little about '27, I guess I'd be curious, any thoughts on how you're thinking about the ability to continue driving profits even if we do enter a period where the industry backdrop is even more challenging. That would be great.

Varun Krishna

Ryan, thank you so much for the question. Why don't I start by just unpacking a little bit on the '27 market outlook? And then I'll tag team with Brian to unpack a little more on the Q4 guide. I think, look, the reality is this may be the toughest mortgage market in more than 30 years. But let me just tell you, like I like tough markets because like when you're playing in this nosebleed territory, no one can really hide, right? So yes, mortgage applications at their lowest level since January of '25. And Redfin reports that homebuyer demand is actually at its lowest level since 2013. But Rocket has a pretty unique view into this market, right? We are the largest mortgage lender. We operate in every channel, every state, and we see a lot. And the other thing is that Redfin gives us a pretty unique visibility into the demand before buyers even apply. So we've been calling for a smaller market than the industry forecast, and that's pretty much exactly what we've seen quarter after quarter after quarter.

So when you look at 2027, the forecasts are below $2 trillion. We think it could actually be even smaller still but I think here is like the key thing. I think that's exactly what we've been planning for. I think in a good market, like everyone looks good. But in a tough market, the truth comes out a little bit. We've spent the last 3 years building for this exact environment. That's why 70% of our revenue is recurring. It's less sensitive to rates. We have more than $300 billion in origination capacity. That's a pure result of our investment in technology.

And I think just a great compare is, again, when you just think back to 2023, it's like the last time that rates were around this level, they were this high and Rocket was actually losing money. And today, perhaps in an even tougher environment, we're taking share, we're expanding margins even with rates back up over 7%. And I think that just shows incredible resilience of our business model. So when you compare these 2 time periods, you have -- 2 very different versions of Rocket and I think that should tell us something. So that's kind of the context on Q4 and a little bit of a perspective into '27. And with that, maybe, Brian, you could unpack a little more on the 4Q guide.

Brian Brown

Sure. Yes, happy to do it. Good to hear from you, Ryan. Let me actually start with Q3 because I just think that would be a good jumping off point for Q4, and Q3 results were very good, to your point, and I'm really proud of the team. Purchase continues to be a bright spot. And if I just double-click into their -- in the prepared remarks, you heard me talk a little bit about Rocket Local that's starting to contribute to the purchase growth in a meaningful way. That's 400 loan officers working in communities around the U.S. and their volume, if I just compare it on a year-over-year basis, is up over 30%. We know that realtors like working with loan officers in their local communities, and that's starting to prove out in Rocket Local.

On the wholesale side, I touched on this, but that continues our strategy to provide the best tech and capabilities to brokers is working, and we've onboarded a record number of brokers over the last quarter over 200 of them, and that -- that volume might expect to come continue into next year.

On the refinance side, it's no surprise that rate and term is a bit challenged, but cash out in home equity continue to perform above even our expectations. And as a reminder, that home equity business really helps boost the gain on sale margins in the quarter that you saw come through.

And of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't talk about recapture as it relates to both refinance and purchase, but we are now at record levels of recapture on the legacy Cooper book, well ahead of our original synergy targets, which we said we wouldn't hit for 2 years from now.

Onto Q4, look, Varun said it well, I expect Q4 to be tough. You have the normal seasonality. We usually measure that at about 15% to 18% down on a historical basis compare Q4 to Q3. But given the sharp increases in rates, I expect there to be a lot of pressure on rate and term refinance in Q4. We can measure almost a 50% decrease on the refinance side going into Q4.

So if all these conditions hold, it could be one of our lowest origination quarters in 3 decades or lowest market quarters say, in 3 decades. And all that's reflected in our guide, which we think is very strong against this backdrop. We still expect cash out in second liens to be productive, and we expect to take share in a purchase market, which remains challenged, but much less so than refinance.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

Ryan Nash

Thank you, Varun and Brian. So maybe a few part question on expenses. First, in the 4Q guide, Brian, I think you noted $165 million quarter-over-quarter decline. Maybe just talk a little bit about how much of that is volume based versus other savings? And then more broadly, Brian, I think you talked about -- you made a comment about aligning your cost structure with demand. I know you mentioned another $100 million of cost saves in 1Q -- in the first half of '27. But can you expand on the realigning the cost structure comment? And are there more levers for you to pull beyond that $100 million?

Brian Brown

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. Appreciate it. Yes, let me -- I will hit on your questions. And just to zoom out because I'd like to give an update on the synergy goals first. Mr. Cooper goal was $400 million. Through the end of the third quarter, we were realized -- we have realized about $300 million of the $400 million, and I expect to realize that final $100 million fourth quarter. That's about $25 million of impact in the fourth quarter, but $100 million on an annualized basis. So that will put us 1 year ahead of our synergy goal, and I'm really proud of the team. And of course, that's on a tough backdrop of the market while we're continuing to take shares.

You said it, but in Q4, after intangible stock comp, onetime costs, I expect it to be down -- I expect expenses to be down about $165 million versus Q3. And since Q4 represents fully realized Cooper synergies, I think that's a good starting point for our fixed cost base into 2027. But I do want to call out because you mentioned the other $100 million that we're not stopping there. Last call, we told you we have line of sight into an additional $100 million that's on top of the $400 million Cooper synergies, and we expect that to be realized in the first half of 2027. But secondly, we're leaving no stones unturned on vendor and third-party costs, and we're also fine-tuning our marketing efforts, that's all on top of the $100 million.

And then you touched on capacity a bit, which is a good point. We've driven a lot of excess capacity in the system, and we're taking a hard look at that in light of the current rate environment. We have north of $300 billion of capacity. So listen, that option value is very high, and we will continue to evaluate that based on demand, and we'll have more to report on that in the next earnings call.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Adelson of Morgan Stanley.

Jeffrey Adelson

Good to hear from you, Varun and Brian. Maybe just could you talk about -- we talked about competition last quarter. And obviously, it continues to be a pretty tough environment out there. Can you just talk about how you guys are faring what you're seeing out there from your competitors, how you're able to take advantage in this tougher backdrop? And you've had a couple of quarters now of continued market share gains here. Maybe just highlight where you're seeing that come from other than just the channel -- high-level channel numbers, purchase and refi. Anything specific under the hood that you think is driving that? Is it more the recapture increase? Is it the focus on Rocket Pro? And do you think that environment is continuing quarter-to-date?

Varun Krishna

Jeff, thanks so much for the question. Look, this is a great topic. I think the reality is the market is literally testing every single lender. And that's like a good news, bad news story. I think the good news is if you have a strong business model, guess what, it's going to shine through. But the bad news is if you have a flaw in your business model, it's going to get exposed.

So when we think about what it takes to actually win in this environment, I think there's a couple of different things that matter. I think the first thing is you have to have a brand, you have to have a brand that stands for something that brings clients directly to you. The second thing is you have to reach buyers before they're shopping for a mortgage and you have to have good signals of intent, good models. The third thing, which is perhaps super critical is that you need things like origination, servicing and recapture working together as a unit, as a system, then you need technology that you can control so that you can innovate faster and cheaper across that entire stack. And then lastly, you also need capital to keep investing when those markets get inevitably harder. And that's a lot to have to be able to survive and thrive, right?

And I think most lenders today have like 1 piece of this equation, right? Some originate, but they don't service. Some service, but they have no origination or recapture. Some own home search portals, but they don't have the mortgage transaction. And I would argue that none of them are bringing it all together into like an AI-powered platform.

So if I were to put that even more simply, like hope is like not a strategy when it comes to competition. But if you contrast that with Rocket, you start to see all of these ingredients, right? Redfin brings 50 million monthly active users directly into our funnel, high-intent, high-quality home buyers. We are the largest lender and the largest servicer. We have 9.1 million clients. We own our technology, it's highly proprietary, we own it end-to-end with AI making that even more impactful and productive. And then we ended the quarter, as Brian shared, with record liquidity. We have $11.4 billion, and we have a leverage ratio below 1x. So simply put, the market is putting pressure on everyone, but we're not all going to come out of that in the same position. So every quarter, we think these are the core ingredients. We think we're putting more distance between Rocket and our competitors.

Jeffrey Adelson

Okay. Great. And just as a quick follow-up, maybe for Brian. You mentioned the improving gain on sale margin this quarter. You talked about home equity, the mix increasing and driving the bulk of that. Maybe just talk about the outlook in the fourth quarter. And from here, as you think about that as a component of your revenue guide with the weaker volumes, specifically in refi next quarter. Is that something that could maybe reverse the trend if you have less refi next quarter?

Brian Brown

Yes. I think, look, a couple of things. If I look at where we're printing margins right now on a channel level, they're very similar to the Q3 margins. So the only thing, then Jeff, you have to think about is mix shift. And as I said, I do expect rate and term to probably be even less in Q4. And those second liens in cash out do come with higher margins. So that is something I view as a positive.

I think the other thing that's worth pointing out when you think about gain on sale margins is traditionally when rates have risen, and we've seen lenders out there maybe try to use pricing as a lever to still drive volume, you're not seeing that as much anymore. I think the position that Varun mentioned some of our other competitors are in that -- available for them anymore. You could see a little bit of that helping gain on sale margin in the third quarter, and I could see some of that helping gain on sale margins stay steady in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harter with BTIG.

Douglas Harter

Thanks, and good afternoon. Hoping we could talk a little bit more about the market share gains that you've been experiencing, Brian. You mentioned Rocket Local, but just hoping we could just talk a little more broadly, like how DTC is doing in terms of market share, both in purchase and refi?

Varun Krishna

Thanks for the question, Doug. Yes. I mean, look, I'd start by saying 3 years ago, we set 2 bold goals, 8% purchase share, 20% refi share, and we're very much on track, right? Purchase right now is approaching 6.5%. Refi hit 15.5%. So both are up and to the right, and we're looking to accelerate that.

And it's worth pointing out that we're actually doing this with rates back up above 7%. And I would just highlight a couple of the key drivers behind the gains, and I'm going to highlight 4. I think the first one is recapture. And essentially, we're first in line when our servicing clients need their next mortgage. And it's great to see that recapture across the combined portfolio is at record levels.

The second one is Redfin. Redfin is the doorway to Rocket, right? Clicks to start-a-purchase mortgage are up 50% year-over-year. And what's also cool is that refinance leads have more than doubled. And so Redfin is really providing a valuable booster as the front door to Rocket.

The third thing, as Brian talked about, is home equity. Home equity is a product that is perfectly built for this market. We have become the nation's largest home equity lender and Rocket already serviced the first mortgage for 2/3 of these clients.

And then the last one, as you asked about, is sort of our distribution, our ecosystem, Rocket Local connects loan officers with agents and buyers in their local communities. It's how we reach a very fragmented purchase market by just focusing on one relationship at a time. Volume there grew more than 30% year-over-year. And then you also have Redfin and Compass, key ingredients that have driven more than 20% of our purchase closings.

And then also, Brian talked a little bit about our broker partners. Over 200 brokers have now activated with Rocket, that represents almost $12 billion in potential annualized volume. So 4 consecutive quarters of expanding margins, taking share, more share and better economics, that's kind of the combination that we're solving for.

Douglas Harter

I appreciate that. And can you just -- as a follow-up, can you talk about your appetite to continue to grow Rocket Local?

Varun Krishna

Yes, I would just say that, look, I think at the end of the day, maybe what I can do is just step back and just reframe our local strategy in general, right? Like 78% of buyers rely on their agents input when they're choosing a lender. We're seeing that through Redfin. We're seeing that through Compass. People want to work with people that they know. Someone who picks up the phone on nights, on weekends, it's really all about trust.

But a big part of this is just our local strategy in general. Like Rocket Local is one component of that strategy. We have local loan officers that are working in every community. But it's also about Compass, it's also about Redfin. It's putting the entire power of the Rocket platform behind all of those relationships. So it's about pricing, it's about underwriting, it's about fulfillment. It's the same platform that's providing our agents, loan officers and brokers success and scale. It's also about our centralized platform, all of these things working together as a unit. And so we just want Rocket to be there, however they choose. Some people will focus on a local relationship. Some people will use digital. Some people will use their own AI assistant. And what we're doing is just simply expanding the strength and the reach of all of these components to meet our clients where they are.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Kurnos with StoneX.

Daniel Kurnos

Great. Varun, I mean, you're clearly in the enviable position of having the best balance sheet in order to decide how aggressive you guys want to be in this market? And to your point, you've spent a lot of time talking about purchase being a bright spot right now. So you extended the Compass pricing credit through year-end after more than $3 billion have locked since Feb, Orbit adds some pricing credit flexibility, how are you deciding where to discount and how deep -- what kind of payback are you underwriting there? And how should we think about that as a permanent part of 2027 pricing? Or is the share-acquisition tool that rolls off once the volume sticks?

Brian Brown

Yes. Thanks, Dan. Maybe I'll take that, and Varun, you might have something to add, too. But I think, look, the -- I'm glad you brought it up because the pricing strategy is simple. It is based on an ROI strategy. So if the unit economics have to work. Going back to my earlier comments on the gain on sale margin, I don't think that we have to be -- pricing completely through or rock bottom prices on every single loan that we do, but we do have the flexibility and option to use price as a lever, and you're seeing that show up in the Compass relationship right now.

And part of that was to get it jump-started and drive some volume and have agents have something to offer to their consumers that they wouldn't be able to get otherwise. And that worked out really well. And then to your point, we extended it because we are seeing healthy ROIs there. What I like about what you're suggesting is it's simple. It gives us the option value as a lever to pull when no one else really has that lever to pull. So it's something that we focus on in terms of our brand messaging. It's something that we focus on internally a lot, but it does all come back to an ROI-driven equation.

Daniel Kurnos

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe a more fun one. So Rocket was an original partner on Meta and Sierra's personal agent protocol. And I think at Sierra Summit, Muse connected with Rocket's agent and you got pre-approval letter within minutes. We know that there are others out there that are blocking Muse outright and you guys are still building along with Anthropics. So I guess when a third-party agent owns the front end, how do you guys make sure you own the client relationship and recapture? And does that traffic reach you guys at cheaper than a paid lead or route buyers through Redfin search?

Varun Krishna

I think the way I would frame it is that we're building technology that meets the client where they are. I mean some clients are going to use an agentic interface in order to shop for rates or contain more of the experience. Some clients are going to focus on local relationships and trust their agent or a broker partner. Some clients are going to come directly to Rocket and work directly within our channels. Our goal is to meet the client exactly where they are. We want to have low rates. We want to have faster in times. We want to deliver absolute certainty. That's what our brand stands for. So from our perspective, the experience doesn't start and end in any one particular place. It starts where the consumer defines it, and it ends with a successful closing. And that's kind of the fundamental of our strategy.

Operator

Your next question from the line of Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo.

Donald Fandetti

Yes. Varun, it seems like the servicing portfolio is driving a lot of home equity cross-sell. It seems like it's driving cash out refi, recapture. Can you just dig in a little bit more on that? And do you see that continuing to grow in terms of impact?

Brian Brown

Yes, Don, let me start that one up. Yes, I do. I think you saw those results come through in Q3 in a big way, and that's a big part of our Q4 guide is those products continuing to be a very productive of our origination business. To your point, the large majority of that comes from our servicing book at a very low cost of acquisition, and that continues to be really exciting.

One thing we haven't been asked about a lot is our recapture capabilities. And we're the biggest servicer, we've combined and fully integrated with Mr. Cooper. That results in the richest data set of client service information out there. That's helpful in a number of ways. We know proprietary data is a huge advantage in building propensity models, and we're seeing those models perform even better with the combination of these 2 companies coming together. We talked about the recapture being above our expectations. It actually, in Q3, hit 60% on the legacy Cooper portfolio. And remember, the goal of 65%, but we said it 65% by the end of 2027.

When we look at these client equity levels in their home, and we match that up to some of the debt and debt consolidation work we can do for them and get them in a lower net rate product, there is still a ton of room to run in my personal opinion. One of the things we talked about on a previous call was how will the liquidity behave and how will the securitization market behave and it's been extremely productive, and that hasn't been a challenge at all. There's appetite for that yield, and there's definitely a consumer need and demand in the servicing portfolio as we look over a longer horizon.

Varun Krishna

I think one thing I would just add here is just Brian talked a little bit about the scale and breadth of our data. And if you just think about how much data Rocket generates in even 1 day to power our recapture platform. Yesterday, we sent 37,000 chats. We processed 170,000 documents. We send 214,000 text messages. We did 404,000 calls, and that's almost 0.5 million minutes of talk time. So when Brian talks about the strength of our data platform and the power of our recapture capability, it just gives you a sense of how we score and rescore our pipeline based on technology. And so that's AI power at scale, at a platform that's really designed to power recapture.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bose George of KBW.

Bose George

Can you discuss how you're viewing opportunities in the MSR market? Could we still see MSR acquisitions or just with the growing correspondent business is bulk acquisition becomes less of a focus?

Brian Brown

Yes. Thanks, Bose. I'll take that one. Yes, I do think you can continue to see acquisitions. It's ultimately just the best execution equation. You mentioned the correspondent business, that's been very productive for us. We have a platform that scales very well there. But most importantly, we have the lowest cost of service and best recapture rate. So if you have those 2 ingredients, you can build yourself a really nice meal, whether that's acquiring through correspondent or whether that is, of course, doing bulk acquisitions.

So we continue to be active over all the MSR acquisition channels, and it continues to be a really good use of capital for us. You may have noticed we did sell a few low WAC portfolios that the recapturability has got to be lower given where those are sitting at 3% and 4% note rate per WAC. However, we retained the vast majority of those, we retain the subservicing and the recapturabilities on those portfolios. Again, that's something I don't think anyone else in the industry can claim that they can do subservicing and recapture for these investment funds. So it continues to be, I would say, a good use of capital for us, and we'll continue to evaluate all the different channels, including co-issue of acquiring MSRs.

Bose George

Okay. Great. Let me just throw in one last one. You've obviously had a lot of success with M&A. What are your thoughts about future M&A and just specifically in terms of distributed retail, I mean, Rocket Local is doing very well, you're growing there. Is that something where M&A could sort of supplement that?

Varun Krishna

Yes. I would just say we're always opportunistic in terms of things that can expand our core strategy and drive market share gains. And so we'll continue to evaluate opportunities as they come up, and that's kind of our primary focus.

Bose George

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Varun for closing remarks.

Varun Krishna

All right. Thank you, everyone, for joining, and we look forward to seeing you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.