Forestar (FOR) 2026年度第4四半期決算説明会：2027年度売上高ガイダンス

主なポイント

• フォレスター（NYSE: FOR）の2026年会計年度第4四半期の売上高は5億8,080万ドル、同社に帰属する純利益は5,920万ドル（希薄化後1株当たり1.15ドル）となりました。
• 通期の売上高は16億ドル、フォレスターに帰属する純利益は合計1億4,260万ドル（希薄化後1株当たり2.78ドル）となりました。
• 第4四半期の売上総利益率は、主に760万ドルの不動産減損損失およびプロジェクト終了費用の増加により、前年同期の22.3%から17.8%に低下しました。これらの項目を除いた売上総利益率は20.8%でした。
• フォレスターの期末流動性は13億ドル、純有利子負債対資本比率は6.7%となりました。1株当たり純資産価値は8%増加し、37.56ドルとなりました。
• 経営陣は、2027年会計年度の売上高を14億〜15億ドル、区画引渡数を12,000〜13,000区画と予想しており、下期の活動は上期を上回ると見込んでいます。
• 住宅購入能力の低下、慎重な消費者心理、住宅ローン金利の上昇が、新築住宅需要や住宅メーカーによる宅地購入の短期的な圧迫要因であり続けています。

主要財務データ

9月30日時点で、フォレスターは6億5,700万ドルの使途制限のない現金と、回転信用枠の未使用枠6億5,800万ドルを保有していました。有利子負債総額は7億9,400万ドルで、2028年会計年度までシニア社債の償還期日はありません。株主資本は合計19億ドルでした。

事業および業績の動向

フォレスターは第4四半期に土地取得および開発へ2億9,900万ドル、通期では13億ドルを投資しました。いずれの金額も約80%が開発、20%が土地購入に充てられました。同社は引き続き、平均棚卸資産に対する税引前利益率15%以上、および36か月以内の当初キャッシュ投資の回収を目標としています。

同社は期末時点で、所有する58,200区画と購入契約により管理する26,200区画を含む、計84,400区画を管理していました。所有する完成区画は前期比16%減の8,100区画となり、その大半は売買契約済みでした。

フォレスターが保有する手付金約2億ドルに裏付けられた契約済みの所有区画は21,500区画に上りました。経営陣によると、これらの契約により将来的に22億ドルの売上高が発生する見込みです。また、保有する別の18,600区画についてはD.R.ホートンへの優先交渉権（ROFO）が設定されています。

D.R.ホートンは引き続きフォレスターの最大顧客です。2026年会計年度において、D.R.ホートンが着工した住宅の14%がフォレスターの開発区画上のものでした。また、フォレスターは年間販売量の14%にあたる1,916区画をD.R.ホートン以外の顧客（25社以上の住宅メーカーや8社の新規顧客を含む）に販売しました。

経営陣によると、下請業者や資材の確保状況は堅調に推移しており、政府・行政関連の遅延が続いているものの、開発コストと施工サイクルタイムは安定していました。フォレスターは、小規模で回転率の高いプロジェクト、供給不足の市場、および複数の製品タイプを提供する開発プロジェクトを優先しています。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

2027年会計年度について、経営陣は以下を予想しています。

• 売上高：14億〜15億ドル
• 区画引渡数：12,000〜13,000区画
• 土地取得および開発への投資額：約13億ドル（資金の大部分は開発に充当）
• 人員数：ほぼ横ばい
• 第1四半期が区画引渡数と売上高の最低の四半期となり、下期の業績は上期を上回る見込み

経営陣は、プロジェクトのリターンを最大化するため、販売ペースと価格設定のバランスを取りながら、プロジェクトの段階や投資ペースを足元の需要に合わせて調整し続けると述べました。

リスクと注視すべき領域

住宅ローン金利の高止まりにより住宅購入能力の制限が続いており、消費者の慎重姿勢が新築住宅需要の重荷となっています。住宅メーカーは住宅ローン金利の引き下げ（バイダウン）を実施していますが、工期の短縮や住宅・完成区画の在庫管理の厳格化も進めており、これがフォレスターの区画販売の時期や数量に影響を与えています。

第4四半期の利益率低下は、個別プロジェクトの実行リスクや規制リスクも浮き彫りにしました。フォレスターは2つのプロジェクトで計760万ドルの減損損失を計上したほか、別の開発プロジェクトの終了に伴い、追加の法務費用、雨水処理の修復費用、およびメンテナンス費用が発生しました。

経営陣は、四半期ごとの平均販売価格が地域および区画サイズの構成に応じて変動すると見込んでいます。2026年会計年度の開発サイクルタイムは安定していたものの、政府・行政手続きの遅延が引き続き運用の制約要因となっています。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

経営陣は、D.R.ホートンの住宅の3分の1をフォレスターが開発した区画上に建設するという共通目標を達成するには、フォレスターが地域展開をより急速に進める必要があると述べました。フォレスターの進出市場は65であるのに対し、D.R.ホートンは約130であり、西部地域への拡大が2027年会計年度および2028年会計年度の進展を後押しすると期待されています。

資本配分について問われた経営陣は、自社株買いよりも事業への再投資を最優先する方針に変わりはないと答えました。期末に6億5,700万ドルの使途制限のない現金を保有していたものの、フォレスターは2027年会計年度に約13億ドルを投資する計画です。

経営陣はまた、第4四半期後半において買収の好機が増加したと報告しました。これらの機会は、経営陣が今後さらに厳しくなる可能性があると分析する事業環境に先立ち、価値の顕在化を目指す非上場の住宅メーカー・デベロッパーに関連したものが中心でした。

利益率について、経営陣は用地一括売却と減損損失を除いたコア区画販売利益率が、前年度の21.3%に対し2026年会計年度は21%であったことを強調しました。また、インフレ圧力が緩和すれば、土地開発活動の沈静化や下請業者の確保状況の改善によって、直接コストを低減する機会が生まれる可能性があると述べました。

決算説明会のトランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Forestar's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Chris Hibbetts, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations for Forestar.

Chris Hibbetts

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, and welcome to the call to discuss Forestar's fourth quarter and fiscal year results. Thank you for joining us.

Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although Forestar believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to Forestar on the date of this conference call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements publicly. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in Forestar's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our earnings release is available on our website at investor.forestar.com, and we plan to file our 10-K in the next few weeks.

After this call, we will post an updated investor presentation to our Investor Relations site under Events and Presentations for your reference. Now I will turn the call over to Andy Oxley, our President and CEO.

Anthony Oxley

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. I'm also joined on the call today by Jim Allen, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Walker, our Chief Operating Officer.

Before discussing our fourth quarter and fiscal year results, I want to recognize Don Tomnitz. As announced in yesterday's press release, Don will retire as Executive Chairman of Forestar effective October 31. His leadership has played a vital role in shaping the company's strategic direction and driving its significant growth. We are deeply grateful for his dedicated service and many contributions, and we wish him all the best in retirement.

Now turning to the results. The Forestar team had a solid finish to the fiscal year, generating over $580 million of revenue in the fourth quarter and $1.6 billion for the full year within our most recent guidance range. Ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to weigh on new home sales and higher mortgage interest rates added further pressure during the quarter. Despite these challenges, we increased our book value per share by 8% to $37.56 at year-end and further strengthened our balance sheet, ending the year with $1.3 billion of liquidity while continuing to position us to achieve our long-term objectives.

Over the last 5 years, we have invested more than $7 billion in land acquisition and development and delivered approximately 75,000 finished lots to local, regional, and national homebuilders. During the same period, our book value per share increased 83%. These results reflect the strength of our business model and teams that we have built across our national footprint.

For fiscal 2027, we will continue to allocate capital prudently, manage inventories efficiently and focus on generating solid returns to strengthen our market-leading presence in the highly fragmented lot development industry. With a differentiated combination of financial resilience, deep expertise, and a substantial operating platform, we are well equipped to supply homebuilders with the finished lots they need while successfully navigating current market dynamics.

Jim will now discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 financial returns in more detail.

James Allen

Thank you, Andy. In the fourth quarter, net income attributable to Forestar was $59.2 million or $1.15 per diluted share on revenue of $580.8 million. Fourth quarter revenue includes $38.7 million in tract sales and other revenue. For the year, net income attributable to Forestar was $142.6 million or $2.78 per diluted share on $1.6 billion of revenue, which includes $129.1 million of tract sales and other revenue. We sold 5,004 lots during the quarter, bringing our total lots sold for the full fiscal year to 13,545. Our average sales price was $108,300 for the quarter and $111,200 for the year. We expect continued quarterly fluctuations in our average sales price based on the geographic location and lot size mix of the lots we sell.

Our gross profit margin for the fourth quarter was 17.8% compared to 22.3% for the same quarter of fiscal 2025. This quarter's margin was reduced by higher costs to close out one project due to increased regulatory compliance requirements as well as $7.6 million of real estate impairment charges related to two projects. Excluding these items, our gross profit margin would have been 20.8%. Our gross profit margin for the year was 19.7%. Excluding those same items, our full year gross profit margin would have been 20.8%.

Our fourth quarter pretax income was $78.6 million, and our pretax profit margin was 13.5%. Pretax income for the year totaled $192.1 million, and our pretax profit margin this year was 11.7%. Pretax income and profit margin for the quarter and the year were reduced by the items I just mentioned and partially offset by a $10 million gain on sale of assets in the fourth quarter. Chris?

Chris Hibbetts

SG&A expense for the fourth quarter decreased 10% to $38.4 million, representing 6.6% of revenue. The decline compared to the same quarter in fiscal 2025 was largely driven by lower headcount and variable compensation. For the year, SG&A expense decreased 2% to $151 million or 9.2% of revenue. We remain focused on managing SG&A efficiently while maintaining strong teams across our national footprint to support future growth. We expect headcount to remain relatively flat in fiscal 2027. Mark?

Mark Walker

Ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to weigh on new home demand. Buydown incentives offered by builders are helping to bridge the affordability gap. However, recent increases in mortgage rates are further constraining affordability. Meanwhile, homebuilders remain focused on shortening cycle times and efficiently managing their inventory of homes and finished lots, which is affecting the timing and volume of finished lot purchases. Our primary focus remains developing lots for new homes at prices for entry-level and first-time buyers, which is the largest segment of the new home market.

However, we maintain the flexibility to pursue projects targeting other segments of the new home market as well as those offering multiple product types. Availability of contractors and necessary materials remain solid. Land development costs have been stable, which have been helped by our team actively working with trade partners on project costs and taking advantage of less land development activity occurring across the industry. We have also seen stable cycle times despite continued governmental delays. Our teams utilize best management practices and work closely with our trade partners to develop lots to drive operational efficiency. Jim?

James Allen

D.R. Horton is our largest and most important customer. In fiscal 2026, 14% of the homes D.R. Horton started were on a Forestar-developed lot. With a mutually stated goal of one out of every three homes D.R. Horton sells to be on a lot developed by Forestar, we have a significant opportunity to grow our share of their business.

We also continue to expand our relationships with other homebuilders. In fiscal 2026, we sold 1,916 lots or 14% of our total to customers other than D.R. Horton. This includes 146 lots sold to a lot banker who expects to sell those lots to D.R. Horton at a future date. Excluding those lots, sales to other homebuilders were the highest percentage of our annual lot sales since 2018. We sold lots to more than 25 different homebuilders this year, including eight new customers. Chris?

Chris Hibbetts

Our underwriting criteria for new development projects remains unchanged at a minimum 15% pretax return on average inventory and a return of our initial cash investment within 36 months. During the fourth quarter, we invested $299 million in land acquisition and development. And for the full year, we invested $1.3 billion. For both the fourth quarter and full year, approximately 80% of our investment was for development and 20% was for land. In fiscal 2027, we currently expect to invest approximately $1.3 billion in land acquisition and development.

For new investments, we are prioritizing projects that are in undersupplied markets, smaller and faster turning or offer multiple product types. For land development, we are aligning our investment pace with current demand through disciplined project phasing and subphasing. As industry-wide development activity slows and higher rates pressure homebuilders and developers, our ongoing commitment to both new and existing projects keeps us well positioned to deliver finished lots to the market. Mark?

Mark Walker

Our lot position at September 30 was 84,400 lots, of which 58,200 or 69% are owned and 26,200 or 31% are controlled through purchase contracts. Of our owned lots, 8,100 are finished, down 16% from the third quarter. Majority of our finished lots are under contract to be sold. Consistent with our focus on capital efficiency, we target owning a three- to four-year supply of land and lots and manage our development phases to deliver finished lots at a pace that matches market demand.

At year-end, 21,500 or 37% of our owned lots were under contract to sell. Approximately $200 million of hard earnest money deposits secure these contracts, which are expected to generate $2.2 billion of future revenue. Our contracted backlog supports our ability to continue gaining market share. Another 18,600 lots or 32% of our owned lots are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton based on executed purchase and sale agreements. Jim?

James Allen

We have significant liquidity and are using modest leverage to keep our balance sheet strong. We ended the year with $1.3 billion of liquidity, including $657 million of unrestricted cash and $658 million of available capacity on our undrawn revolving credit facility.

Total debt at September 30 was $794 million with no senior note maturities until fiscal 2028, and our net debt-to-capital ratio was 6.7%. Stockholders' equity at year-end was $1.9 billion, and our book value per share increased 8% from a year ago to $37.56.

Forestar's capital structure is one of our biggest competitive advantages and sets us apart from other land developers. Project-level land acquisition and development loans are less available today and continue to be more expensive, which affects the majority of our competitors. Those loans are generally more restrictive, carry floating rates and create administrative complexity, particularly in a higher interest rate environment. Our capital structure provides us with financial and operational flexibility, and our strong liquidity positions us to take advantage of attractive opportunities when they arise. Andy, I will now turn it back to you for closing remarks.

Anthony Oxley

Thanks, Jim. Fiscal 2026 was a solid year for Forestar. We generated $1.6 billion of revenue and grew book value per share by 8%. We continue to execute our strategy by investing in land acquisition and development across our broad operating platform. We also strengthened our balance sheet, ending the year with $1.3 billion of liquidity.

Thank you to all of the Forestar team members for your continued efforts this year. As we look forward to fiscal 2027, based on current market conditions, we expect to deliver between 12,000 and 13,000 lots and to generate $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of revenue. Similar to fiscal 2026, we currently expect our first quarter will be our lowest lot delivery and revenue quarter of the year, and we expect our lot deliveries and revenues in the second half of fiscal 2027 to be higher than the first half. We are closely monitoring each market as we strive to balance pace and price to maximize returns for each project.

Forestar has consistently demonstrated its ability to navigate changing market conditions. While we expect home affordability constraints and cautious homebuyers to remain near-term headwinds for new home demand, we are confident in the long-term demand for finished lots and our ability to gain market share in the highly fragmented lot development industry. We are well positioned for continued success with our portfolio across our diverse national footprint, operating expertise and strong balance sheet. Matthew, at this time, we'll open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Ryan Gilbert from BTIG.

質疑応答

Ryan Gilbert

I'm wondering if you could talk in a little more detail about how you plan to achieve the mutually stated goal of 1/3 of D.R. Horton's deliveries on Forestar lots and maybe some specific levers that you can pull in '27 or '28 to make progress towards that goal. It just seems like if you're going to do 12,000 to 13,000 lot sales in '27, that's a deeper year-over-year decline than what Horton is guiding to currently.

Anthony Oxley

Thanks, Ryan. We have made significant progress on that 1/3 in a lot of markets. It's just that they're in so many more markets than we are. We're in 65 markets and they're in around 130. So overall, we have to grow at a faster pace than they grow, which has been a challenge. But as we've scaled up the organization, particularly with our growth out West, we think we can make meaningful progress in '27 and into '28.

Ryan Gilbert

Okay. Got it. And then just on the cash balance, $650 million. Can you talk about how you're thinking about deploying that into land versus potentially strategic opportunities or even buying back the stock, given where it's trading?

James Allen

Yes, Ryan. So we're still planning to invest $1.3 billion in land and development. The majority of that will be in development for fiscal '27. As far as stock buybacks, it's not that the current stock price isn't compelling. We just believe that the highest priority for our cash is to reinvest in the business and the long-term growth opportunity that this company has.

Ryan Gilbert

Okay. Understood. And then last one for me, just given the weakening in the end market, the housing market over the last few months, are you seeing any distressed opportunities start to emerge in any of the markets that you're operating and that could be a potential opportunity to deploy that cash? When we had talked, I think probably coming up on five or six months ago now, it seemed like there was pretty limited opportunities on the distressed front.

Mark Walker

We are seeing more opportunities pick up, particularly in the back half of the quarter. We're reviewing each of those opportunities as they present themselves, and we think that there will be more opportunities as the year persists.

Ryan Gilbert

Any detail that you could provide there? I'm wondering if maybe you're seeing some opportunities come out of the land banking competition.

Anthony Oxley

Haven't really seen it out of the land banking competition. I think it's more around private builder developers that are looking at what happened in '26 and what the forecast is for '27. And they're looking for ways to unlock the value of their organizations that they've built, understanding that the next year or longer may be a rougher environment.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is coming from Paul Przybylski from Wolfe Research.

Paul Przybylski

To start off, I was wondering, could you frame the gross margin degradation between, maybe higher input costs or some better pricing you may have to offer your customers?

James Allen

The lower gross margin in the quarter was really caused by a couple of unusual factors. We had two impairments in the quarter for $7.6 million. And then the closeout of another project that had additional costs for legal and regulatory requirements around on-site stormwater remediation and maintenance. Those two things together really -- if you exclude those, our gross profit would be 20.8%. And really within kind of our normalized gross margin that we've seen for the last several years between 20% and 23%.

Anthony Oxley

We really haven't seen increases in costs. Earlier in the year, we actually had started to see some decreases in certain components. I think those in the second half of the year were largely offset by some other increases, particularly related to fuel. But really, pricing has been pretty stabilized and contractor availability definitely has improved.

Mark Walker

And couple that with the reduced land development activity, I think that there will be some opportunities if the inflationary pressures can be reduced to decrease our cost structures, direct costs.

James Allen

I think one other point, too, if you just look at our core lot sales margin, which excludes tract sales and impairments for the year was at 21% compared to 21.3% last year. So we really haven't seen a significant decrease in that core lot sales margin.

Paul Przybylski

Okay. Okay. You mentioned the West being an opportunity to increase your share with Horton to get closer to that 1/3 goal. But that has kind of been one of the weaker demand regions. Do you go ahead and purchase lots now? Or do you kind of sit on the sidelines and wait until that market stabilizes so you can get a better understanding on your underwriting?

Anthony Oxley

So we're focused on our smaller, quicker turning deals. We're not looking to do really large projects. And particularly where the Horton team has a great pipeline, we're able to open up and very efficiently start to expand in those markets. And we've seen that have good success over the last couple of years that we'll continue with that program.

Mark Walker

The other thing, too, is we have a very robust pipeline. So it's allowing us to select investments that really fit our model. That's something that we're seeing as well.

Paul Przybylski

Okay. And just my last one, to follow up back up on the cost. You really hadn't seen oil, I guess, pricing flow through much in '26. But are you getting surcharges or any increases in '27 that might be a headwind for your margin?

Mark Walker

We are not seeing today any material impact of that. A lot of that's due to, again, reduced land developer activity, and we're seeing more contractor availability. So the more contractors we have, the better projects. So we're really pushing back on that to the extent that we can. And our teams are working with our trade partners day in, day out to find ways to reduce cost. And if that was to come through, it takes us 12 months to put a lot on the ground. So it's going to take some time for those higher costs to work their way through.

Operator

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Andy for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Anthony Oxley

Thank you, Matthew, and thank you to everyone on the Forestar team for your focus and hard work. As we enter fiscal 2027, continue to stay disciplined, flexible and opportunistic while focusing on consolidating market share. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again in January to share our first quarter results.

Operator

Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.