アンテロ・ミッドストリーム（AM）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：EBITDAとパイプラインの成長

主要ハイライト

• アンテロ・ミッドストリーム（AM）が発表した2026年第3四半期の調整後EBITDAは、約100億立方フィート（Bcf）のスループット削減があったものの、前年同期比3%増の2億9,100万ドルとなりました。
• 集荷量および圧縮量はそれぞれ19%増と17%増となった一方、設備投資額は合計5,100万ドルとなりました。
• 配当支払い後のフリーキャッシュフローは、クリアウォーター訴訟の和解金3億7,700万ドルを含め4億4,900万ドルに達しました。同社はこのキャッシュフローを充当し、4億ドル以上の負債削減を行うとともに、自社株買いを加速させました。
• 9月30日時点のレバレッジ比率は2.8倍に低下し、AMの目標である3.0倍を下回り、2022年末のピークから1.0ポイント低下しました。
• 経営陣は、予想されるスループット削減分調整後の緩やかなスループット成長と淡水輸送に支えられ、2026年第4四半期の調整後EBITDAが過去最高を更新し、前四半期比で一桁台後半の成長率を示すと見込んでいます。
• 2027年について、経営陣は前年比で2桁のEBITDA成長を見込むとともに、イースト・サイド・エクスプレスやその他の地域ガス需要プロジェクト向けに、自律的成長プログラムに加えて1億ドル以上の追加設備投資を見込んでいます。

主要財務データ

事業および運用の業績

アンテロ・ミッドストリームは、HGの買収、自律的な集荷・水関連プロジェクト、および新しい地域パイプライン事業部門を通じて、統合されたマーセラス・シェールインフラの拡大を継続しました。

AM専用の鉱区では2組の完工クルーが稼働し、掘削済み未完工（DUC）の成長パッド2区画を支援しました。第3四半期中、既存およびHG双方の水インフラシステムは100%の稼働率を達成しました。同社は年内にHG水システムの統合を完了させ、買収時に見込んでいた水関連のシナジー効果を実現する計画を順調に進めています。

イースト・サイド・エクスプレスの建設は継続しています。経営陣によると、同パイプラインを経由してアンテロ・リソーシズの天然ガスへのアクセスを求める複数の川下取引相手から関心が寄せられています。このプロジェクトには、川下パイプラインとの約7箇所の相互接続が含まれる見込みです。

AMはまた、南北地域パイプライン、天然ガス需要センターへの支線パイプライン、統合型電力事業機会を含む数拾億ドル規模の潜在的なインフラプロジェクトを検討しています。経営陣は、既存のサードパーティ契約が満了するに伴い、自社インフラを活用してバリューチェーンにおけるより大きな価値を取り込む方針であると述べました。

2022年末以降、AMは総額14億ドルに上る5件の買収を統合し、自律的成長のために10億ドル以上の設備投資を行い、日量のスループットを10億立方フィート（Bcf）以上増加させ、発行済株式数を600万株以上削減しました。

経営陣の業績見通し

経営陣は、2026年第4四半期の調整後EBITDAが過去最高を更新し、第3四半期比で一桁台後半の成長率になると想定しています。この改善見通しは、淡水輸送量の増加と、予想される削減分調整後の緩やかなスループット成長に基づいています。

2027年について、経営陣は前年比で2桁のEBITDA成長を見込んでいます。主な要因としては、アンテロ・リソーシズの生産計画に連動したスループットの増加、通年稼働する2組の完工クルー、追加の淡水輸送、および既存鉱区における成長パッド2区画の完了が挙げられます。

同社は、2027年の設備投資額が主にイースト・サイド・エクスプレスやその他の地域ガス需要プロジェクト向けに、自律的プログラムを1億ドル以上上回ると見込んでいます。

イースト・サイド・エクスプレスの投資規模は約2億ドルから3億ドルと見込まれており、2028年後半または2029年の完成を目指しています。経営陣は現在、提案されている南北パイプラインの評価を進めており、最終投資決定は2027年になる可能性があると述べました。

リスクおよび注視すべき事項

第3四半期のスループットは約100億立方フィート（Bcf）の削減により減少しており、経営陣の第4四半期の見通しも一定の削減が継続することを前提としています。

イースト・サイド・エクスプレスは建設に複数年を要する見通しであり、南北パイプラインは調査・評価段階にとどまっており、まだ最終投資決定に至っていません。

2027年に見込まれるEBITDA成長は、アンテロ・リソーシズのスループット増加、持続的な完工活動、および淡水輸送量の増加に一部依存しています。

アナリスト質疑応答の主なハイライト

ゴールドマン・サックスのアナリスト、ジョン・マッケイ氏は、AMの地域パイプラインプロジェクトの規模、コスト、時期について質問しました。経営陣は、イースト・サイド・エクスプレスの規模が約7箇所の川下相互接続を含めて2億ドルから3億ドルであり、完成時期は2028年後半または2029年であると改めて説明しました。

検討中の南北パイプラインに関して、経営陣はクラリントン市場からの強い関心を挙げました。同社は初期評価作業を実施しており、2027年に最終投資決定を行う可能性があります。

2027年のEBITDA成長への要因について問われた経営陣は、スループットの増加、掘削済み未完工パッド2区画の完了、および通年での完工クルー2組の稼働による淡水輸送量の増加を挙げました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to Antero Midstream Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Dan Katzenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin.

Daniel Katzenberg

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's Third Quarter Investor Conference Call. We will spend a few moments going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A.

I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures.

Joining me on the call today are Michael Kennedy, CEO and President of Antero Midstream; Justin Agnew, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Resources.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Kennedy

Thanks, Dan. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide #3. Antero Midstream continues to expand its integrated Marcellus Shale footprint to support growing natural gas demand across North America. This expansion includes our HG acquisition and integration, organic gathering and water growth projects and our new regional pipeline business unit.

Turning first to Water. Two completion crews are operating on acreage dedicated to Antero Midstream, supporting 2 drilled, but uncompleted growth pads. Higher freshwater delivery volumes in the fourth quarter, combined with modest throughput growth net of expected curtailments are expected to drive high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

We also remain on track to complete the HG Water System Integration by year-end and realize all of the water synergies assumed in the acquisition. Both our legacy and HG water systems achieved 100% uptime in the third quarter, positioning us well for full operational integration.

Looking ahead to 2027, these growth pads and water system integration are expected to drive double-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth.

Turning to our newly established regional pipeline business unit. We continued construction on the East Side Express. Since announcing the project last quarter, we have seen interest from multiple downstream counterparties seeking access to AR's natural gas through the pipeline. This interest underscores a shift in industry dynamics in Appalachia.

Unlike the producer push expansions of the past, today's opportunities are driven by demand pull from LNG facilities, utilities and growing electrification of America.

Importantly, unlike the previous wave of expansions that were farmed out to third parties, Antero Midstream now has the scale, balance sheet capacity and expertise to pursue these opportunities. We are actively pursuing several billion dollars in potential projects, including our first North-South directed regional pipeline, laterals to natural gas demand centers and integrated power opportunities.

As existing third-party agreements expire, we plan to leverage our infrastructure to own more of the value chain previously served by those providers. This strategy positions AM to play an integrated role in expanding AR's margins and to serve as the industrial builder in West Virginia, delivering customized infrastructure that connects growing demand with investment-grade producers.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Agnew

Thanks, Mike. I'll start with our third quarter highlights on Slide #4. Gathering and compression volumes increased by 19% and 17%, respectively. As noted in the press release, throughput was impacted by approximately 10 Bcf of curtailments during the quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $291 million, which was a 3% increase year-over-year. Capital invested during the quarter was $51 million, which marked another quarter of EBITDA growth and flat capital.

Free cash flow after dividends was $449 million, including $377 million of Clearwater litigation proceeds. This free cash flow was utilized to reduce debt by over $400 million during the quarter and accelerate share repurchases once our leverage target was achieved.

I'll conclude our prepared remarks on Slide #5, which highlights the balance sheet improvement over the last several years. As of September 30, our leverage was 2.8x, below our 3x target and in line with this time last year. As you can see on the right-hand side of the page, our leverage is down a full turn from its peak at year-end 2022 after our first dry gas gathering acquisition.

Since then, we have integrated 5 acquisitions totaling $1.4 billion, invested over $1 billion in organic growth capital, increased throughput by over 1 Bcf a day and reduced our share count by over 6 million shares.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect a step-up in capital as we invest over $100 million of capital incremental to our organic program related to East Side Express and other regional gas demand projects.

Even after these in-hand growth projects, we still have significant balance sheet capacity to pursue the large infrastructure opportunity set, Mike referenced in his comments, while still maintaining peer-leading leverage and debt levels.

In summary, our balance sheet, consistent free cash flow generation and integrated platform position us well to capitalize on the growing need for natural gas infrastructure in Appalachia.

With that, operator, we are ready to begin the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

質疑応答

John Mackay

I appreciate the updates on East Side Express and some of the early comments on North-South. Last call, you guys were still, I guess, kind of codifying the scope on East-West. So just maybe if you can kind of share a little bit more of what the latest thoughts are in terms of size, total CapEx. And then off of that, any early read on North-South would be interesting.

Justin Agnew

Yes, really no change to the scope of that project, call it, $200 million to $300 million. Again, that's going to be roughly 7 interconnects with downstream pipelines really positioning for that demand pull industry dynamic we talked about. So really no change in that scope. Everything remains kind of on track, on schedule for that late '28, 2029 time frame.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. And then on the North-South, I don't know if you -- John, if you caught the AR call, but we're having so much interest in the Clarington market. I think it'd be natural and very opportunistic for us to build a North-South from our field up into that area.

John Mackay

And maybe just any time line on that?

Michael Kennedy

Yes, over the next couple of years. We're actually scoping it right now, having a little initial capital right now assessing it. But I think you'll probably see us FID that in 2027.

John Mackay

All right. That's clear. And then second one for me. I appreciate the commentary on kind of double-digit EBITDA growth into next year. Obviously, the third quarter and kind of implied fourth quarter are softer. You guys touched on that in terms of the curtailments and some of the kind of more actual physical constraints. But maybe just walk through a little bit of the bridge for us in terms of kind of underlying volumes versus margin versus anything else.

Michael Kennedy

Yes. I don't think the fourth quarter is soft. It will be an all-time high EBITDA for the company by quite a margin or quite an amount. So not soft there. And then '27 we will have 10% on that. You saw AR's guidance at 15 to 20 Bcf, but it's still at 4.3 Bcfe versus the 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, I believe it was for AR. So you'll have that growth in throughput.

Obviously, that's a net number. So you have a little more on that on gross for AM. And then you have those 2 water projects, the completion of the DUCs on the AR legacy acreage. So that will result in substantial water volume growth. So that will drive the Q4 up in that high single-digit EBITDA growth quarter-over-quarter.

And then looking at next year at that 4.5 that AR guided, you'll see that obviously come through in the throughput. And then you'll have more freshwater delivery as we run 2 completion crews flat for the year. So you put that all together and you get the double-digit EBITDA growth year-over-year, '27 over '26.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. It appears we have no additional questions. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor to management for any closing or final remarks.

Daniel Katzenberg

I'd like to thank you for joining the earnings conference call this quarter. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out. Have a good day.

Operator

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.