CTOリアルティ・グロース 2026年第3四半期決算説明会:投資額が4億7200万ドルに達しFFOガイダンスを上方修正
CTOリアルティ・グロースの2026年第3四半期決算は、希薄化後1株当たりコアFFOが前年同期比10.4%増の0.53ドルとなり、堅調なリーシングと投資が寄与した。ショッピングセンターの既存物件NOIは3.8%増、賃貸契約面積は46万7,000平方フィートを記録。経営陣は好調な業績を背景に、通期のコアFFO見通しを2.11〜2.14ドルへ上方修正した。また、カンザスシティでの新規取得や約2億6,000万ドルのストラクチャード投資を通じてポートフォリオを拡大し、プロフォーマ調整後EBITDAに対する純有利子負債倍率は5.9倍となっている。
要点
- CTO Realty Growthが発表した2026年第3四半期の希薄化後1株当たりコアFFOは0.53ドルとなり、前年同期の0.48ドルから10.4%増加した。年初来の1株当たりコアFFOは13.8%増の1.57ドルとなった。
- ショッピングセンターの既存物件NOI(純営業利益)は、当四半期に3.8%増、年初来で6.2%増となった。一部の非コア物件を含む既存物件全体のNOIは、当四半期に2.3%増加した。
- 当四半期中の賃貸契約面積は46万7,000平方フィートに達した。比較可能な物件の賃貸契約は39万6,000平方フィートで、キャッシュ賃料スプレッドは7%であった。
- 最初の9ヶ月間の投資総額は3億3,650万ドルで、加重平均利回りは9.4%となった。四半期終了後の追加取引を経て、2026年の投資額は同加重平均利回りで4億7,200万ドルに達した。
- 経営陣は2026年通期の希薄化後1株当たりコアFFOの見通しを2.11〜2.14ドルに、AFFOの見通しを2.22〜2.25ドルに上方修正した。
- CTOの当四半期末時点のプロフォーマ調整後EBITDAに対する純有利子負債倍率は5.9倍で、手元流動性は約2億5,500万ドルであった。経営陣は、最近の投資に伴いレバレッジが一時約6.5倍まで上昇するものの、組込収益の貢献が始まるにつれて6倍台前半へと低下すると見込んでいる。
主要財務データ
| 指標 | 2026年第3四半期 / 当期実績 | 変動率または背景 |
|---|---|---|
| 希薄化後1株当たりコアFFO | 0.53ドル | 前年同期比10.4%増 |
| 年初来の希薄化後1株当たりコアFFO | 1.57ドル | 前年同期比13.8%増 |
| ショッピングセンター既存物件NOI成長率 | 3.8% | 2026年第3四半期 |
| 年初来ショッピングセンター既存物件NOI成長率 | 6.2% | 2026年最初の9ヶ月間 |
| 全既存物件NOI成長率 | 2.3% | 一部の非コア物件を含む |
| 第3四半期賃貸契約面積 | 46万7,000平方フィート | 賃貸契約総数 |
| 第3四半期比較可能物件の賃貸契約 | 39万6,000平方フィート | キャッシュ賃料スプレッド 7% |
| 年初来比較可能物件の賃貸契約 | 72万6,000平方フィート | キャッシュ賃料スプレッド 9% |
| 最初の9ヶ月間の投資額 | 3億3,650万ドル | 加重平均利回り 9.4% |
| 四半期終了後の取引完了を含む2026年投資額 | 4億7,200万ドル | 加重平均利回り 9.4% |
| 契約済み未開店(SNO)パイプライン | 560万ドル | 現在のキャッシュ賃料の約4.6% |
| 総負債 | 7億2,300万ドル | 加重平均金利 4.7% |
| プロフォーマ調整後EBITDAに対する純有利子負債倍率 | 5.9倍 | 前年同期の6.7倍から低下 |
| 手元流動性 | 約2億5,500万ドル | 四半期末時点 |
| PINEからの年間換算収益ランレート | 900万ドル | 運用報酬580万ドルおよび配当収入320万ドル |
事業および業績
CTOは退去のあった11か所のアンカーテナントスペースすべてに対処した。うち9件は約70%のプラスのスプレッドで再賃貸され、2件は全米規模の小売り業者に2,070万ドルで売却する契約を締結しており、第4四半期に取引が完了する見込みである。
Zona Rosaを除くと、契約済み稼働率は前四半期の95.4%から95.7%に上昇した。取得時に契約率67%であったZona Rosaを含めると、9月30日時点のポートフォリオ全体の契約済み稼働率は92.4%となった。
560万ドルの契約済み未開店(SNO)パイプラインは、将来の賃料成長を支えると期待されている。経営陣によると、約320万ドル分が2027年(主に年中頃)に賃料発生を開始し、2028年までにほぼ全パイプラインが稼働する見込みである。この数値には、四半期終了後にPompano Citi Centreで締結された賃貸契約は含まれていない。
Pompano Citi Centreでは、Amped Fitnessが1万9,000平方フィート拡張して5万3,000平方フィートとすることに同意した。また、系列会社が研究、試験、オフィス用途として5万6,000平方フィートを賃貸した。この追加スペースにより、同物件の報告面積は56万5,000平方フィートに拡大する。
CTOは、6か所のアウトパーセル開発プログラムにより、約3,000万ドルの投資に対してアンレバードで10%台前半の加重平均利回りが創出されると予想している。経営陣は収益への寄与が2027年に始まり、2028年にフル寄与すると見込んでいる。
カンザスシティでの物件取得
CTOは、計約130万平方フィートに及ぶ2件の取得を通じてカンザスシティ市場に参入した。
- Zona Rosa:約6,300万ドル(1平方フィート当たり82ドル)で取得。同物件の契約率は67%で、10エーカーの開発許可済み用地と、約25万平方フィートの総空室面積のうち約10万平方フィートの未利用スペースを含んでいる。経営陣は、活性化と稼働率向上に向けてヘルス&フィットネス、エンターテインメント、レストラン、ホテルの誘致を目指している。
- Summit Woods Crossing:四半期終了後に1億300万ドル(1平方フィート当たり189ドル)で取得。面積54万5,000平方フィートの同センターの稼働率は99%であった。経営陣は本資産を、ロウズやコールズなど市場価格を下回る賃貸契約を複数抱える高品質な物件と位置づけている。
ストラクチャード投資
CTOは7月に3,700万ドルの融資を実行し、クロージング時に2,980万ドルを実行済みとした。この2年ローンはオースティンの複合用途物件の定期借地権で担保されており、初期キャッシュ利回りは9.75%である。
四半期終了後、同社は10か所のショッピングセンターを保有するジョイントベンチャーに3,200万ドルの優先出資を行った。この3年間の投資利回りは17%(7%の現物支給[PIK]収益を含む)となっている。経営陣はこのポジションを保持する見込みである。
ストラクチャード投資ポートフォリオは現在、合計約2億6,000万ドルとなり、加重平均利回りは12.1%となった。経営陣は、商業ローンが非減価償却資産の約15%という同社の目標上限に近づいていることを示した。
貸借対照表と資金調達
CTOは、4億ドルのリボルビング融資枠と2029年9月から2032年3月に満期を迎える6億ドルのタームローンで構成される10億ドルの無担保融資枠を締結した。この取引により、コミットメントラインと流動性が2億5,000万ドル追加され、加重平均負債満期は1.6年から4.3年に延長された。
同社はまた、ATM(アット・ザ・マーケット)プログラムを通じて1株当たり平均発行価格21.83ドルで2,730万ドルの手取金を調達した。唯一の有担保住宅ローンを返済したことで、すべての負債が無担保となった。
経営陣は、同社が短期的な活動の資金調達において株価に依存する必要はなく、機動的な資産のリサイクリングを重視する方針だと述べた。受け入れ可能な価格が提示されれば、今後6ヶ月以内に一定のリサイクリング活動を見込んでいる。
業績予想(ガイダンス)
| 2026年ガイダンス指標 | 改定後の見通し | 従来の見通し |
|---|---|---|
| 希薄化後1株当たりコアFFO | 2.11〜2.14ドル | 2.09〜2.13ドル |
| 希薄化後1株当たりAFFO | 2.22〜2.25ドル | 2.21〜2.25ドル |
| ショッピングセンター既存物件NOI成長率 | 5%〜6% | — |
| 投資額 | 約4億7,200万ドル | 3億〜4億ドル |
| 一般管理費 | 2,100万〜2,150万ドル | — |
経営陣によると、コアFFOガイダンスの中央値は2025年比で約14%の成長を表している。ガイダンスの範囲内での第4四半期の業績は、賃料発生開始日や歩合賃料に一部依存する。
リスクと注視点
- 経営陣は、最近の取引により、四半期末時点の5.9倍からレバレッジが約6.5倍に上昇すると予想している。その後、契約済み未開店(SNO)パイプラインとアウトパーセルからの収益により、レバレッジは約0.2倍低下する可能性がある。
- 約1億ドルを対象とするスワップが2027年に満期を迎え、適用金利が約180ベーシスポイント上昇する。経営陣は、2028年には同様の著しいスワップ関連の圧力が生じることはないと予想している。
- Crossroads Towne CenterにおけるHarkins TheatresからCrunch Fitnessへのテナント入れ替えにより、2027年初頭のHarkinsの退去から2028年のCrunchの賃料発生開始までに、約12ヶ月のダウンタイム(空室期間)が発生する見込みである。
- Zona Rosaは大幅なリーシング向上のポテンシャルを持っているが、ポートフォリオ組み入れ時点の契約率は67%であった。経営陣は、繰延メンテナンスではなく、テナント関連の投資が主な資金需要になると述べた。
- 経営陣によると、金利上昇によって商業施設に対する買い手の需要が消滅したわけではないが、6ヶ月前と比較して約25〜30ベーシスポイントの価格調整につながる可能性があるという。
アナリスト質疑応答の要点
経営陣は、利用可能なスペースに殺到している状況とまでは評価しなかったものの、賃貸需要は堅調で高品質なテナントに支えられていると説明した。
アルバカーキのオフィス物件について、CTOはFidelityの将来のスペース需要を評価し、ニューメキシコ州の新政権を待った上で、2027年に資産の最適化を図る計画である。経営陣は、時期尚早に売却して潜在価値を実現できないままにすることは避けたいと述べた。
2028年の賃貸契約満了に関して、経営陣はRockwallにおける低賃料のJCPenneyの契約、アルバカーキのFidelityのスペース、およびすでにCrunch Fitnessへの事前賃貸が決まっているHarkinsの区画を挙げた。小規模店舗の契約更新により、さらなる賃料成長の機会がもたらされると期待されている。
経営陣は、ショッピングセンター資産に対する需要はコア資本によって引き続き支えられていると述べた。CTOは、特にプレミアム価格で売却可能な安定した成長の緩やかな物件について、選択的に売却を進める方針である。
決算説明会文字起こし全文
決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト
経営陣による説明
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the CTO Realty Growth 2026 Quarter 3 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jenna McKinney, Director of Finance. Jenna, please go ahead.
Jenna McKinney
Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today for the CTO Realty Growth Third Quarter 2026 Operating Results Conference Call. Participating on the call this morning are John Albright, President and Chief Executive Officer; Philip Mays, Chief Financial Officer; and other members of the executive team who will be available to answer questions during the call.
I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. The company's actual future results may differ materially from the matters discussed in these forward-looking statements and we undertake no duty to update these statements. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are discussed from time to time in greater detail in the company's Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. You can find our SEC reports, earnings release, supplemental and most recent investor presentation on our website at ctoreit.com.
With that, I will turn the call over to John.
John Albright
Thanks, Jenna and good morning, everyone. The third quarter was very productive for CTO as we continued our strong leasing and investment momentum. During the quarter, we signed 467,000 square feet of leases and completed $102.3 million of investments at a weighted average yield of 9.1%. That brings our 9-month total to 833,000 square feet of leasing and $336.5 million of investments at a weighted average yield of 9.4%. This activity drove core FFO per diluted share growth of 10.4% for the quarter and 13.8% for the 9 months. We have now addressed all 11 of our vacated anchor spaces. And just after the quarter end, we signed approximately 75,000 square feet of new leases at Pompano Citi Centre and completed an additional $135.8 million of investments, bringing year-to-date investments to $472 million at a weighted average yield of 9.4%.
Reflecting all of this activity, we are raising our 2026 core FFO guidance, which Phil will walk through shortly. Starting with leasing, our third quarter activity included 396,000 square feet of comparable leases at a 7% cash rent spread. Year-to-date comparable leasing totals 726,000 square feet at a 9% cash rent spread. Regarding the vacated anchor spaces, we addressed the last remaining box this quarter by subdividing the former Conn's space at Carolina Pavilion in Charlotte and signing leases with Cavender's and 2nd & Charles. We're pleased with how this all played out. Of the 11 spaces, 9 have been re-leased at approximately 70% positive spread. The remaining 2, as previously announced, are under contract to be sold to a national retailer for $20.7 million with closing expected in the fourth quarter. We expect these new anchors to bring more traffic to our centers and benefit the adjacent small shop space.
A few other leasing highlights. First, we signed a 55,000 square foot lease with Crunch Fitness at Crossroads Towne Center in Phoenix to replace Harkins Theatres. Although the Harkins lease runs through late 2028, we had negotiated an early termination right. That let us proactively backfill the space at a positive cash spread with a view that it will drive more foot traffic. We expect roughly 12 months of downtime between Harkins vacating early 2027 and the Crunch lease commencing in 2028. Second, just after the quarter end, Amped Fitness signed a lease to expand by 19,000 square feet at Pompano Citi Centre, bringing this immersive experience-driven fitness destination to 53,000 square feet.
An Amped affiliate also leased 56,000 square feet for research, development and testing of gym equipment and experiential rooms as well as office operations. This space is part of the 62,000 square feet of unfinished second floor shell space we identified as upside when we acquired the property last December. Because the space isn't currently in the center's square footage, the lease will increase Pompano Citi Centre to 565,000 square feet. Third, our outparcel program. This quarter, we signed 4 leases at multi-tenant buildings in 2 outparcel developments, T-Mobile at The Plaza at Rockwall and Jason's Deli, Acapella Nail Spa and Nothing Bundt Cakes at Beaver Creek in Raleigh. Together with the Swig and Cooper's Hawk leases signed earlier this year, we're making steady progress.
We continue to expect a blended low double-digit unlevered yield on about $30 million of investments across these 6 outparcels with earnings contribution beginning in 2027 and the full benefit in 2028.
Turning to occupancy. Excluding Zona Rosa, leased occupancy increased to 95.7% from 95.4% last quarter. Including Zona Rosa, which was 67% leased when we acquired it, the total portfolio was 92.4% leased at September 30. Zona Rosa gives us real room to grow, which I'll come back to in a moment. At quarter end, our signed-not-open pipeline was $5.6 million or about 4.6% of in-place cash rent. That's down modestly from last quarter, mainly because the State of New Mexico began paying rent at our Albuquerque property in September, though new leasing during the quarter offset most of this impact. We expect the majority of the signed-not-open pipeline to commence rent over the course of 2027.
Moving to investments. On our last call, we said we expected to close at least one more acquisition this year. We closed 2, both in Kansas City, a new market for CTO with more than 2.2 million people in a pro-business climate. Together, these 2 centers, both in strong local submarkets, add about 1.3 million square feet to our portfolio. First, Zona Rosa, which we acquired in the third quarter for approximately $63 million or $82 per square foot, well below replacement costs. It's a top lifestyle center in Kansas City's Northland submarket with about 5.5 million annual visits and is anchored by DICK's Sporting Goods, Barnes & Noble, Old Navy, Burlington and DSW.
Beyond the lease-up opportunity, the property includes 10 acres of entitled development land and about 100,000 square feet of underutilized space we can reposition. Second, Summit Woods Crossing, which we acquired in early October for $103 million or $189 per square foot, also well below replacement cost. It's a 545,000 square foot power center in Lee's Summit, one of the metro's most affluent submarket. It's 99% occupied and anchored by Lowe's, Kohl's, Best Buy, T.J. Maxx and Total Wine with a SuperTarget on the site that we don't own. With about 7.3 million annual visits, it's among the most visited shopping centers in the Kansas City metro area. These 2 acquisitions also strengthened our tenant credit with Dick's and Best Buy, both investment grade becoming our 2 largest tenants.
On the structured investment side, in July, we originated a $37 million loan, of which $29.8 million was funded at closing. It's secured by a leasehold interest in a mixed-use property in Austin, Texas, has a 2-year term and carries a 9.75% initial cash yield. Then after quarter end, we closed a $32 million preferred equity investment in a joint venture that owns 10 shopping centers. It is fully funded at closing, has a 3-year term and yields 17%, including 7% pay in kind. Our structured investment portfolio now totals approximately $260 million at a blended rate of 12.1%.
Finally, during the quarter, we closed a new expanded credit facility that gives us ample capacity to fund this activity. Phil will cover the details. In summary, we're very pleased with the 9 months of 2026. We believe our embedded growth drivers, including below-market in-place rents, the signed-not-open pipeline, lease-up opportunities, outparcel developments and disciplined capital recycling positions CTO for meaningful earnings growth.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil.
Philip Mays
Thanks, John. On this call, I will briefly highlight our quarterly results and provide an update on our balance sheet and revised full year outlook. Starting with operating results. For the third quarter, core FFO was $0.53 per diluted share, up 10.4% from $0.48 a year ago. Growth was driven primarily by leases that commenced paying rent over the past year, along with contributions from our property acquisitions and structured investments. Year-to-date, core FFO was $1.57 per diluted share, up 13.8%. Shopping center same-property NOI grew 3.8% for the quarter and 6.2% for the year-to-date.
As we flagged on our last call, growth moderated as several anchors that opened in late 2025 moved into the prior year comparable period. Including a few noncore properties, total same-property NOI grew 2.3% for the quarter. This reflects the downtime at our last significant noncore property in Albuquerque, where space vacated last December is now leased to the State of New Mexico, which recently commenced paying rent, as John noted. Turning to PINE. Income from our management agreement and equity investment was $2.2 million for the quarter and our annualized run rate is now $9 million, consisting of $5.8 million of management fees and $3.2 million of dividend income.
Moving to the balance sheet. During the quarter, we closed a $1 billion unsecured credit facility, consisting of a $400 million revolver and $600 million of term loans with maturities ranging from September 2029 to March 2032. The facility added $250 million of commitments and liquidity and extended our weighted average debt maturity to 4.3 years from 1.6 years. Also during the quarter, we raised $27.3 million of net proceeds through our ATM program at an average gross price of $21.83 per share and repaid our only secured mortgage. Our debt is now entirely unsecured.
We ended the quarter with net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA of 5.9x, essentially in line with the last quarter and down from 6.7x a year ago and approximately $255 million of liquidity. Total debt was $723 million at a weighted average interest rate of 4.7%. Finally, turning to guidance. We're raising our 2026 core FFO guidance to a range of $2.11 to $2.14 per diluted share, up from $2.09 to $2.13. At the midpoint, that represents approximately 14% growth over 2025. We're also raising the low end of our AFFO guidance to a new range of $2.22 to $2.25 per diluted share, up from $2.21 to $2.25. Key assumptions in our revised guidance include shopping center same-property NOI growth of 5% to 6%, investment volumes, including commercial loans and structured investments of approximately $472 million, up from our prior range of $300 million to $400 million and general and administrative expenses of $21 million to $21.5 million.
With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jay Kornreich of Cantor Fitzgerald.
質疑応答
Jay Kornreich
Can you talk just about the general supply-demand fundamentals you're seeing across the portfolio? I guess, are the power centers currently a landlord's market via pricing power? And if so, is that a trend you expect to continue throughout 2027?
John Albright
Yes. Thanks, Jay. Yes, we're seeing still good activity on the leasing front from really good quality tenants. I wouldn't say that it's like a mad grab for space or anything like that but good consistent demand and the type of tenants you want.
Jay Kornreich
Okay. And then maybe just shifting to the office property in New Mexico. Just curious if there's any update there for opportunities to start marketing that asset and any update to timing when a potential sale could happen?
John Albright
Sure. So basically, State of New Mexico is now in, so that's great. We're talking to the other tenant, Fidelity, about kind of what their space needs are going forward and then waiting for the new administration in the State of New Mexico to come online next year. So basically, next year, we'll kind of basically optimize the property rather than hastily sell it when it might be leaving some easy money on the table.
Operator
Our next question comes from Matthew Erdner of Jones.
Matthew Erdner
I'd like to kind of touch on the 2 recent acquisitions in Kansas City. You touched a little bit on why you like the environment there. But I guess what's the opportunity that you kind of see at Zona Rosa, just the amount that you guys are able to kind of bring online over the next couple of years?
John Albright
Yes. So the property had been owned by a entity that had foreclosed on it. So there wasn't very much outreach on the leasing side. And so I feel like -- the property has some very high-performing tenants. So we've done this many times before and I think that there's a lot of opportunity on the health and fitness side, on the entertainment side, on the restaurant side and then also talked to hotel developers about the pad sites. And so just really attacking on all sides. And given that we bought it at a nice opportunistic current yield and with all that vacancy opportunity to lease up, it's -- we're really excited about the opportunity there.
Matthew Erdner
Yes, that's good to hear. And then as it relates to kind of the leasing opportunity through '28, it's about 25% of ABR right now. I guess how much of that is attributable to Zona Rosa and kind of the newer acquisitions? And then again, just the opportunity to kind of drive spreads higher there?
John Albright
I'll let Phil address that.
Philip Mays
On the -- you're asking on the '28 expirations, how much is attributable to Zona Rosa?
Matthew Erdner
Yes.
Philip Mays
There's not too much in there. What is in there, we feel really good about. There's the JCPenney's renewal at Rockwall. It's a very, very low rent. So we feel good they'll renew. There's actually Fidelity's renewal, which is in there, which John was talking about earlier at Albuquerque. They've recently generally rightsized. So we feel good about that. And then the other really large one in there is Harkins at Crossroads, which John talked about. We've already kind of proactively re-leased that with Crunch Fitness. Those are the larger ones in there. After that, a lot of small shops. Some have contractual extensions, some don't. So that will be where we'll kind of grow our rents, is in those small shop renewals.
Operator
Our next question comes from Rob Stevenson of Huntington.
Robert Stevenson
How are you thinking about equity funding in the near and intermediate term with the stock now sort of sub-20 at this point?
John Albright
Yes. I mean, obviously, we don't think the stock is at the right price. And now that we've done the investments -- a lot of investments this year, almost sort of getting close to the market cap of the company. We're not like needing to expect that the stock price to be at a certain level to raise equity here. So we've done enough investments. We're definitely looking at the recycling side. Can we get premium pricing on some of the assets that are now stabilized and slower growing? And so you probably see more of that. So we don't really need to rely on the equity price to be at a certain level.
Robert Stevenson
Okay. I guess given that comment, John, how are higher rates impacting the demand for some of the assets that you want to sell at this point? Are you still seeing decent demand and the brokers think that you could achieve the pricing? Is it a situation where people have sort of pulled back, waiting to see what winds up happening over the next couple of months in terms of moves, et cetera? How would you characterize that today?
John Albright
Yes. You still have a large capital base of capital that wants to get back into the space or get into the space as far as the retail shopping centers. And they're going to plow through no matter kind of what. Now they'll have pricing adjustments based on rates but it's not going to inhibit the demand for sure. So the demand is there from the right capital being very core capital. And of course, there'll be a little pricing adjustment, whether it's probably 25 bps, 30 bps from 6 months ago, something like that but nothing dramatic.
Robert Stevenson
Okay. And then, Phil, what is the pace of the $5.6 million signed-not-open? It doesn't sound like Crunch starts until 2028 but when do the big pieces of that $5.6 million start to hit the revenue line for you guys?
Philip Mays
Yes. So we actually put in our investor presentation there. We schedule it out by year. So that might be helpful. But of the $5.6 million, about $3.2 million comes online in '27. And pretty much all of it is online for '28. So we get really the full benefit in '28, a little over half the benefit in '27.
Robert Stevenson
And then last one for...
Philip Mays
That doesn't reflect the leasing of Pompano that John talked about that happened just after the end of the quarter. And so that will be a little more incremental positive on top of what's in the signed-not-open pipeline currently.
Robert Stevenson
Okay. And should we -- that $3.2 million in '27, is that sort of throughout the weighted throughout the -- weighted fairly evenly throughout the year? Or is there like a big chunk in any specific quarters that we need to be aware of in the back half?
Philip Mays
Kind of back-end leases, it's right around the middle of the year.
Robert Stevenson
Okay. And then last one for me. So the guidance today, what gets you sort of at the high end? I mean the low end of the guidance range for both core and AFFO is about $0.01 better than what you did in the third quarter. But the high end of that range is a few pennies higher than that. What's the sort of variable that gets you from the sort of low end to the high end of the guidance range for the year?
Philip Mays
Yes. I mean it's a few things. A lot of it's signed-not-open rent commencement. Some of that could come online late this year and that would bump us up. That's probably -- that -- there's always in the fourth quarter, there's percent rent, right? And we have a significant amount that happens in the fourth quarter. So it's really just rent commencement dates, percent rent and where those shake out in the fourth quarter.
Operator
Our next question comes from Craig Kucera of Lucid Capital Markets.
Craig Kucera
I want to circle back to Zona Rosa, which is a pretty interesting acquisition. I guess you have about 250,000 square feet of vacancy there and you mentioned you also had 100,000 square feet of underutilized space. Can you -- are those -- those are independent of each other, correct?
Philip Mays
The 100,000 is part of the 250,000. Yes. So it's in total but there's 100,000 that's just very underutilized where it sits and not really activated because there's not an anchor to really drive people back there currently. And we're working on finding ways to implement and activate that part of the center to get some leasing momentum for that 100,000 specifically. But it's in -- the 250,000 includes that, Craig.
Craig Kucera
Okay. That's helpful. And are you expecting a meaningful amount of CapEx to reposition this acquisition? Or is there a lot of low-hanging fruit maybe like we saw at Carolina Pavilion?
John Albright
Yes, there's not a lot of capital needed to do to -- basically deferred maintenance or anything. There definitely is deferred maintenance but it's not a huge amount. And we're working on all that landscaping, painting, that sort of thing. But the real capital will come with tenants. So very much revenue-producing sort of capital yielding investment.
Craig Kucera
Right. That makes sense. And as far as repositioning there, is this a situation where some of the tenants are paying way below market and you can kind of replace them with markets? Or is it really more what you alluded to before, I think about bringing in like health and fitness and a restaurant, maybe hotels on the pads?
John Albright
Yes, it's more about activating the property to its potential. So there's not any huge mark-to-market. It's just a lot of vacancy opportunity and missing uses.
Craig Kucera
Okay. That makes sense. Changing gears with the $32 million preferred equity investment you made earlier this quarter, are you likely to keep that whole investment or sell a portion similar to what you did at PINE for some of the higher-yielding investments you have there?
John Albright
Yes. That one, we're really lucky to have and happy to help out on the transaction that transpired as a -- on a portfolio that we tried to buy. And so we lost on the transaction but was able to do this preferred investment at a lower basis than where we were willing to buy the portfolio. So we expect that to be a hold.
Craig Kucera
Okay. And Phil, is the swap on the 2030 term loan, is the only swap expiring next year?
Philip Mays
Yes, there's one swap maturing. It's on about $100 million and it rolls up about 180 basis points. I can't remember, Craig, if that's on the 2030 or the 2032 loan but either way, it's 2032 loan. It's $100 million and it will roll up 180 basis points. That's the only one we have changing in '27. In '28, we got a couple but they're fairly close to market. So there won't be a significant drag in '28 from any swaps expiring.
Craig Kucera
Okay. And just one more for me. You mentioned the lease termination at Harkins. How much was that fee? And was that recognized in the third quarter? Or will be recognized this quarter or in the future?
Philip Mays
Yes. There was -- that was really more -- we just got an early termination option. So we actually just in order to get that and have the flexibility to exercise it on timing that works with Crunch coming in and limiting the downtime. We just actually just gave them a little bit of break in rent. We didn't get any income and then we got that option in exchange for that break in rent. And Crunch is well underway of working to get all their approvals and everything. And then we'll hit that option at the most opportune time to limit the downtime there. So there's no kind of onetime income this quarter related to that.
Operator
Our next question comes from Gaurav Mehta at Alliance Global Partners.
Gaurav Mehta
I wanted to follow up on the $32 million loan that you guys did in 4Q. Why is the yield at 17% higher than, I guess, some of the other loans that you've done in the past?
John Albright
Just because the complexity of the transaction, is fast moving, needed to be done by a date certain. It gave them some flexibility on when they can kind of repay us, expect it to be more of a 2-year duration sort of investment. So it was just really -- they had to have the capital by a certain time and didn't have a lot of time to go shop around. So we -- because we, as I mentioned before, tried to acquire the portfolio, we had already underwritten it. And if they went out to other people that would need time to underwrite it, it would be impossible for them to have something closed in the timing they needed to have it closed.
Gaurav Mehta
Okay. Second question, your commercial loan investments seem like they're 14% of undepreciated assets. Can you remind us what the target is for the loan investment portfolio?
John Albright
Yes. I mean this is basically the level, 15%, I think we mentioned before. So I don't anticipate this going higher than the level where it is right now.
Operator
Our next question comes from John Massocca of B. Riley Securities.
John Massocca
So maybe just given some moving pieces, particularly happening subsequent to quarter end and your outlook on the capital markets, how are you thinking about leverage currently? And I guess you mentioned it a little bit to one of the earlier questions but does that kind of set up for some more maybe systematic dispositions next year? Or are you kind of happy at this level or maybe more opportunistic with sales?
Philip Mays
Yes. I'll take the leverage piece, John. So at the end of the quarter, we were a little under 6x. With all that activity, I think we go up to maybe 6.5x debt-to-EBITDA. And then keep in mind, we have a really robust signed-not-open pipeline. We have these pads. I'm not going to take it down 0.5 turn or anything but they will incrementally bring it down 0.2 turn or so, right? So we'd be in the low 6s. So it's a level we're comfortable with. But that said, we'll be -- we can always look to recycle depending on the opportunities we're seeing. On the market side, I'll let John answer.
John Albright
Yes. I mean I think, as I mentioned before, we'll opportunistically recycle if we get the right pricing for some of the assets. So I expect something to happen in the next 6 months on the recycling side but -- so expect a little bit of that.
John Massocca
Okay. And then on the Summit Woods transaction, anything to be aware of that could be kind of additive there, either kind of re-tenanting or re-leasing? Or is it just kind of a very attractive day 1 yield for the quality of asset you purchased?
John Albright
Yes. I would say it's the latter. That is a really high-quality property with solid tenant quality but there are very below-market leases on that property. The Kohl's and the Lowe's are really low rents. So almost sort of like a covered land play, if you will. But yes, we like the solid nature of the asset.
John Massocca
Okay. And then on Pompano Citi Centre, you're kind of adding square footage with the new tenant. Is there any more opportunities for that with some of the second floor space if you can activate it? Or is that kind of going to be fully utilized post that lease-up?
John Albright
No, we still have room to go there. There's still opportunity there on the leasing side and we're getting really good traction. So we're excited about the runway at Pompano. So the Amped expansion is going to do a lot for just driving more energy there. And we're taking out -- they're taking over corridor space. So expenses that we were paying on sort of dead space, that's going to go away. So it's all kind of lining up really well for us.
John Massocca
And I mean how much more square footage could kind of be added either as the cost of what Amped is doing or just absolutely?
Philip Mays
Yes. No. So the lease at the end of the quarter was low 90s percent like 92%, 93%. So there's a lot of runway just there and that's on the existing square feet. Amped took the vast majority of that unfinished space and for lack of a better way to describe it, it was like enclosed structure parking. I mean -- and they took 55,000 square feet and that space was, I think, right around 60,000 square feet. And we had underwritten that at 0. And while we -- as -- while we tend to do that to be conservative on our underwriting, John and our Head of Leasing take it very personal and they went out and found a creative use for it there. So that unfinished space now is largely filled with Amped but we still have a lot of runway just on the property itself because it's relatively, on a relative basis, low leased.
Operator
I am showing no further questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may now disconnect.
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