プロビデント・フィナンシャル・ホールディングス（PROV）2027年度第1四半期決算説明会：純金利サヤ（NIM）拡大、信用指標は安定

要点

• Provident Financial Holdingsの2027年度第1四半期の融資残高は、主に単世帯住宅向けローンを中心に約400万ドルの増加となりました。
• 新規融資実行額は4,540万ドルとなり、前四半期の4,640万ドルから減少しました。元本返済および完済額は前四半期比6%減の4,080万ドルとなりました。
• 純金利マージンは前四半期比11ベーシスポイント上昇し3.32%となりました。連邦住宅貸付銀行（FHLB）からの特別現金配当が約10ベーシスポイント寄与しており、この影響を除いた実質的なマージンは経営陣の推計で約3.22%となります。
• 信用力は安定して推移しました。不良資産（NPA）は50万4,000ドル（総資産の4ベーシスポイント）にとどまり、初期段階の延滞ローンもありませんでした。
• 経営陣は、2026年12月期の新規融資実行額について、直近の四半期レンジである2,900万〜4,600万ドルの範囲内にとどまると予想しており、一方で融資の完済動きはさらに一段落すると見込んでいます。
• 同社は2026年10月22日に5%の新規自社株買い計画を承認しました。第1四半期の自社株買いと現金配当の合計額は約248万ドルとなり、四半期純利益の約158%に相当します。

主要財務データ

業績および事業状況

新規融資の実行が引き続き資産利回りを下支えしました。2026年9月期に実行された融資の加重平均金利は6.19%となり、期末時点の保有投資目的融資ポートフォリオ全体の5.43%を上回りました。

借り換えに伴うメリットの低下が期前償還の動きを抑制しました。ホリデーシーズンは通常、新規融資実行量が落ち込むものの、安定した案件パイプラインにより継続的な融資成長が下支えされると経営陣は説明しています。

信用指標は好調を維持しました。オフィスビル担保ローンは合計3,330万ドルで、保有投資目的融資の3.2%を占めています。経営陣は、借り手の属性や物件の担保特性から今後も健全な推移が見込まれるとしています。2027年度の残りの期間に満期を迎える商業用不動産ローンは、わずか3件（合計42万4,000ドル）にとどまります。

当四半期中、同社は約8万6,000株の自社株買いを160万ドルで実施し、約88万ドルの現金配当を支払いました。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣は、2026年12月期の新規融資実行額について、直近の四半期レンジである2,900万〜4,600万ドルの範囲にとどまると予想しています。融資の完済規模は6月期および9月期の水準から減少する見込みであり、これがバランスシートの緩やかな拡大を下支えする可能性があります。

2026年12月期中に、約1億1,600万ドルの変動金利ローンが金利改定（リプライス）を迎える予定です。経営陣は加重平均金利が6.56%から7.21%へ、約65ベーシスポイント上昇すると予想しています。

同時に、連邦住宅貸付銀行（FHLB）からの借入金、ブローカー経由の譲渡性預金（CD）、および政府系CDの計1億490万ドル（加重平均金利3.94%）が満期を迎えます。経営陣は、これらの資金調達コストがやや高めに改定されると見込んでいます。

FHLB特別配当の影響を除いたベースで、経営陣は12月期の純金利マージンが拡大すると予想していますが、拡大幅は第1四半期に計上された増加分を下回ると見ています。

リスクと注視すべき事項

市場金利の上昇により借り手の繰上返済インセンティブが低下し、融資ポートフォリオの予想存続期間が長期化しています。これが当四半期における77万7,000ドルの貸倒引当金繰入の主な要因となりました。

調達コストの上昇が引き続き圧迫要因となっています。経営陣によると、満期を迎えるホールセール調達の金利を引き下げる機会はほぼ一巡しており、12月期に満期を迎える資金調達はより高い金利で改定される見通しです。

商業用不動産（特にオフィスビル担保ローン）については、同社のエクスポージャーが限定的で足元の業績が安定しているものの、引き続き注視が必要な領域となっています。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

融資の伸びについて経営陣は、完済額の減少がホリデーシーズンにおける季節的な新規融資の減速を相殺するのに寄与すると述べました。同社は2026年12月期、さらには2027年3月期にかけてもある程度の成長が見込めると引き続き予想しています。

マージンの動向について経営陣は、変動金利ローンの金利改定や既存ポートフォリオの平均を上回る金利での新規融資による効果を強調しました。ただし、これらのプラス効果の一部は、満期を迎えるホールセール調達のコスト上昇によって相殺される見込みです。

満期保有目的の有価証券ポートフォリオの再編について問われた経営陣は、選択肢として検討はしたものの、進める計画はないことを示しました。同ポートフォリオは自然に減額（ランオフ）が進んでおり、回収されたキャッシュフローは大幅に高い金利で再投資されています。

決算説明会 文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Provident Financial Holdings First Quarter of Fiscal 2027 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Donavon Ternes, President and CEO. Donavon, please go ahead.

Donavon Ternes

Thank you, Rebecca. Good morning. This is Donavon Ternes, President and CEO of Provident Financial Holdings. And on the call with me is Peter Fan, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I have a brief administrative item to address. Our presentation today discusses the company's business outlook and will include forward-looking statements. Those statements include descriptions of management's plans, objectives or goals for future operations, products or services, forecasts of financial or other performance measures and statements about the company's general outlook for interest rates, economic and business conditions.

We also may make forward-looking statements during the question-and-answer period following management's presentation. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed today.

Information on the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from any forward-looking statement is available from the earnings release that was distributed yesterday, from the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2026, and from other SEC filings that are filed subsequent to the Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements are effective only as of the date that they are made, and the company assumes no obligation to update this information.

To begin with, thank you for participating in our call. I hope that each of you has had an opportunity to review our earnings release that we distributed yesterday, which describes our fiscal -- or our first quarter of fiscal 2027 results. In the most recent quarter, we achieved modest loan growth of approximately $4 million, primarily in our portfolio of single-family loans. We originated $45.4 million of loans held for investment, a slight decrease from the $46.4 million originated in the prior sequential quarter. Loan principal payments and payoffs declined to $40.8 million, a decrease of 6% from the $43.5 million in the June 2026 quarter.

Loan prepayment activity declined in the current interest rate environment as refinancing opportunities are less favorable. We continue to make adjustments to our underwriting requirements within certain loan segments to support disciplined, sustainable growth in origination volume. Despite the volatility in the market, our loan pipeline has remained stable, suggesting that our loan origination volume in the December 2026 quarter will remain within the range of recent quarters which has been between $29 million and $46 million.

We would also expect to see continued moderation in loan prepayment activity. Our credit quality remains strong -- you will note that nonperforming assets were just $504,000 or 4 basis points of total assets at September 30, 2026, essentially unchanged from $505,000 at June 30, 2026.

Additionally, there were no loans in the early stages of delinquency at September 30, 2026, indicating no emerging credit issues. We continue to closely monitor commercial real estate loans, particularly loans secured by office buildings but we believe based on our borrower profiles and collateral characteristics that these loans will continue to perform in accordance with their terms. We have outlined these characteristics on Slide 13 of our quarterly investor presentation, which shows that our exposure to loans secured by various types of office buildings is limited to $33.3 million or 3.2% of loans held for investment.

You should also note that we have only 3 CRE loans that totaled $424,000 maturing in the remainder of fiscal 2027. We recorded a $777,000 provision for credit losses in the September 2026 quarter. The provision recorded in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 was primarily attributable to an increase in the expected life of the loan portfolio, resulting from higher market interest rates which reduces the incentive for borrowers to prepay. The allowance for credit losses to gross loans held for investment was 64 basis points at September 30, 2026, an increase of 7 basis points from 57 basis points at June 30, 2026. Compared to the sequential quarter ended June 30, 2026, our net interest margin increased 11 basis points to 3.32% for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, comprised of a 20 basis point increase in asset yields partially offset by a 9 basis point increase in funding costs.

For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, our average cost of deposits increased 11 basis points to 1.47%, while our cost of borrowings decreased 3 basis points to 4.01%. The September 2026 quarter net interest margin was augmented by approximately 10 basis points as the result of a Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend. The net deferred loan cost amortization associated with loan payoffs in the September 2026 quarter compared to the average of the previous 5 quarters, positively impacted the net interest margin by 1 basis point compared to a positive impact of 3 basis points in the June 2026 quarter.

New loan production is being originated at higher mortgage interest rates than the weighted average rate of the existing loan portfolio. The weighted average rate of loans originated in the September 2026 quarter was 6.19%, compared to the weighted average rate of 5.43% for loans held for investment as of September 30, 2026. In the December 2026 quarter, our adjustable rate loans are repricing at interest rates that are higher than their current interest rates. We have approximately $116 million of loans repricing to an interest rate that we anticipate will be approximately 65 basis points higher to a weighted average interest rate of 7.21% from the current interest rate of 6.56%.

I would note that the opportunity to reprice maturing wholesale funding downward is largely behind us. We have approximately $104.9 million of Federal Home Loan Bank advances, brokered certificates of deposit and government certificates of deposit maturing in the December 2026 quarter at a weighted average interest rate of 3.94%. Given the current interest rate environment, we expect to reprice these maturities somewhat higher. All of this suggests that any net interest margin expansion, adjusted for the Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend in the September 2026 quarter will be something less than recent prior quarters.

Our FTE count at September 30, 2026, was 160 compared to 164 1 year ago. We continue to look for operating efficiencies throughout the company to lower operating expenses. Operating expenses were $7.6 million in the September 2026 quarter, a slight decline from $7.7 million in the June 2026 quarter. Our short-term strategy focuses on disciplined balance sheet growth by expanding our loan portfolio. We believe this approach is well suited to the current economic environment and the normalized yield curve. During the September 2026 quarter, we made progress on the execution of this strategy, maintaining our loan origination volume while benefiting from a more moderate level of loan prepayments.

We exceed well-capitalized capital ratios by a significant margin, providing flexibility to execute on our business plan and capital management goals. We believe that maintaining our cash dividend is very important. We also recognize that prudent capital returns to shareholders through stock buyback programs is a responsible and effective capital management tool. To that end, we approved a new 5% stock buyback plan on October 22, 2026. During the September 2026 quarter, we repurchased approximately 86,000 shares at a total cost of $1.6 million. Combined with approximately $880,000 of cash dividends paid to our shareholders, total capital returned to shareholders represented approximately 158% of the September quarter's net income.

We encourage everyone to review our September 30 investor presentation that has been posted to our website. You will find that we included slides regarding financial metrics, asset quality and capital management, which we believe will provide additional insight on our solid financial foundation supporting the future growth of the company.

We will now entertain any questions that you may have regarding our financial results. Thank you. Rebecca?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Adam Kroll with Piper Sandler.

質疑応答

Adam Kroll

I'm on for Matthew Clark. Maybe just starting out on loan growth, it looks like balances held pretty steady and some small origination volume during the quarter. But I guess I'd be curious to hear how pipelines are shaping up so far this quarter. And if you expect any potential change in prepayments with the drop in rates since the end of the quarter?

Donavon Ternes

Sure. So we started the quarter with pipelines relatively similar to where they were during much of the September quarter. We are entering, however, in the December quarter and the beginning of the March quarter. The holiday season which there is typically drops with respect to loan origination volume unless the country is in a refinance position where interest rates are such that refinance activity is elevated. That is not the case today. In fact, we would expect our loan payoff volume to decline from what we saw in the September and June quarters, for instance, as interest rates have risen to a point where it really is a small percentage of total mortgages outstanding that are in the money with respect to the ability to refinance at a lower rate.

So on that side, we think payoffs will come down. That will help growth. But additionally, we are entering the poor season, if you will, with respect to origination activity because we're entering the holiday season. Nonetheless, we do expect that we will be able to gin up some growth in the December quarter and perhaps in the March quarter.

Adam Kroll

Got it. I appreciate the color there. Maybe moving to the margin. Obviously, you have some nice tailwinds on the loan repricing side of things. But maybe if I could get an updated outlook or how you think the margin will perform and walk through sort of your deposit beta assumptions if we were to get a couple of more rate hikes.

Donavon Ternes

Of course. So if we think about where our back book of loans are, we described it in the prepared remarks, we're going to see a good bit of loans repricing in the December quarter, and they're repricing upward nicely to the tune of about 65 basis points. Additionally, with respect to new origination volume, we would expect to see new origination volume maybe coming in at 150 basis points higher than the existing loan portfolio or so, and that would also help net interest margin.

What we also described in the prepared remarks is that our maturing wholesale borrowings in the December quarter which are similar in balance to what is repricing on the loan side, they're going to reprice upward and I think they could reprice upward similarly to what the loans are repricing at. And so if I were to think about where our net interest margin on an adjusted basis, taking out approximately 10 basis points for the Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend, that puts us at about a 3.22% margin for the September quarter. We were at a 3.21% margin in the June quarter. So I would think that we will still expand our net interest margin in the December quarter, but it won't be what we saw with respect to 11 basis points from the June to September quarter if we take out that special cash dividend from the Federal Home Loan Bank.

So I think margin expands. I think it expands at a lower amount than what we saw this quarter.

Adam Kroll

Got it. And then last 1 for me. Just given the really strong capital levels you have today, has there been any consideration or thoughts into just restructuring the HTM portfolio?

Donavon Ternes

We have given it some thought. I don't know that, that's something that we're going to take on at this point. We like the strong capital ratios that we have, and that book of business with respect to investment securities is burning off quite nicely, and that cash flow is being reinvested at significantly higher rates. And so I think we'll let it take its normal course as we go down the time line.

Operator

There are currently no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Ternes for closing remarks.

Donavon Ternes

Thank you, Rebecca, and thank you, everyone, for attending our earnings call this quarter, and I look forward to speaking with you at the end of next quarter. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.