フリーポート・マクモラン（FCX）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：グラスバーグの操業拡大が成長を牽引

主要ポイント

• フリーポート・マクモラン（Freeport-McMoRan）は、2026年第3四半期の連結純利益が前年同期比で80%以上増加し、米国の鉱山事業からの営業利益は2倍以上に拡大したと発表した。
• グラスバーグ鉱山（Grasberg）の当四半期の稼働率は操業能力の67%となった。経営陣は2027年半ばまでに約80%への引き上げを目指しており、2027年末までにフル稼働に近い水準へ達すると見込んでいる。
• 経営陣は、主にグラスバーグの操業回復に伴い、銅販売量が2026年の約30億ポンドから2027年には37億ポンド、2028年には40億ポンド超へと増加すると予想している。
• FCXは、米国およびチリにおける減産と鉱山計画の更新を反映し、2026年の銅販売量見通しを約2%、2027年の見通しを約2.5%下方修正した。
• 2026年通期の純単位キャッシュコストのガイダンスは1ポンド当たり1.90ドルで維持された。予想設備投資額は2026年が約44億ドル、2027年が約52億ドルへと上方修正された。
• 同社は年初来で自社株買い3億ドルを含む約10億ドルを株主に還元した。経営陣は、将来のキャッシュフロー拡大が自律的成長（オーガニック成長）投資と株主還元の双方を支えることになると述べた。

主要財務データ

FCXの試算によると、2027〜2028年の平均年間EBITDAは、銅価格が1ポンド当たり5ドルの場合は120億ドル超、7ドルの場合は195億ドルとなる。対応する営業キャッシュフローはそれぞれ90億ドル超および約150億ドルと試算されている。これらのシナリオは、金価格を1オンス当たり4,000ドル、モリブデン価格を1ポンド当たり32ドルと仮定している。

経営陣の試算によれば、2027〜2028年において、銅価格が1ポンド当たり0.10ドル変動するごとに年間EBITDAが約3億9,000万ドル影響を受ける。また、金価格が1オンス当たり100ドル変動するとEBITDAに約1億500万ドル、モリブデン価格が1ポンド当たり1ドル変動すると約8,500万ドルの影響が生じる。

事業および操業パフォーマンス

グラスバーグの操業回復が引き続き生産量増大の主な触媒に

グラスバーグ・ブロックケーブ（Grasberg Block Cave）の操業率は第3四半期に能力の67%に達した。自動レール鉱石搬送システムのアップグレードは計画通りに進んでおり、2027年のPB1 South再開に向けた作業も継続している。インドネシアの2基の製錬所は現在どちらも稼働中である。

経営陣は、グラスバーグの銅生産量が2026年の約7億ポンドから2027年には12億ポンドに増加すると予想している。生産量は2027年を通じて徐々に拡大し、第1四半期が最小となり、下半期は上半期を上回る見込みである。

同社はPB1Cの再開についても評価を行っている。経営陣によると、PB1Cの2028年時点での寄与は軽微にとどまるものの、2030年までに銅生産量の約3%、金生産量の約6%を占める可能性がある。クチン・リアー（Kucing Liar）の開発は、グラスバーグ・ブロックケーブの回復にリソースを集中させたため、やや遅れている。

米国の事業は採掘ペースとテクノロジー活用に注力

FCXは米国の採掘ペースを前年同期から改善させたが、第3四半期中の異常気象が操業に打撃を与え、その影響は第4四半期まで続いた。また、品位の低下や鉱石の特性も選鉱回収率に影響を及ぼした。

同社は生産性向上のため、高積載大型トラックの投入、鉱山計画の更新、遠隔操作機能やデータ分析の活用を進めている。現在のエネルギーおよび原材料価格の状況はすでに計画の前提条件に組み込まれているため、経営陣は米国の生産量増大を単位コスト削減の最重要レバーと位置付けている。

浸出（リーチ）イニシアチブがさらなる上振れ要因に

FCXは、浸出（リーチ）技術の取り組みによる銅生産への寄与が、2026年の2億ポンド強から、2027年には約3億ポンドに増加すると見込んでいる。現在の予測には、次世代の独自添加剤によるそれ以上の伸びしろは含まれていない。

研究所でのテストでは、初期の添加剤と比べて4倍以上の追加回収率が示された。2027年に商用規模の現場導入が計画されており、経営陣は6〜12か月以内に有意義な検証データが得られると期待している。

長期的な目標は、2030年までに浸出技術による年間生産量を約8億ポンドに到達させることである。この成果は、新添加剤の現場での成果や鉱石集積場（ストックファイル）の温度を引き上げる取り組みの成否にかかっている。

既存鉱山（ブラウンフィールド）拡張パイプライン

FCXはアリゾナ州のバグダッド拡張計画について、2026年第4四半期に投資決定を行う見込みである。今後の見込み設備投資額は約45億ドルで据え置かれており、承認後の建設期間は約3.5年と予想されている。

このプロジェクトにより選鉱能力は2倍以上に拡大し、年間で約2億〜2億5,000万ポンドの銅と、1,000万〜1,200万ポンドのモリブデンが追加生産される見通しである。経営陣によれば、必要な許認可はすでに取得済みである。

同社はまた、チリのエル・アブラ（El Abra）やアリゾナ州のサフォード・ローン・スター（Safford-Lone Star）地区の調査も進めている。サフォード・ローン・スターでの今後の開発計画は、浸出技術の成果によって変更される可能性がある。

経営陣による業績予想（ガイダンス）

米国およびチリでの生産不足に伴い、2026年の銅販売量見通しは約2%引き下げられた。2027年の見通しも最新の鉱山計画を反映して約2.5%下方修正された一方、2028年の銅見通しは従来予想が維持された。

経営陣は、利用可能なキャッシュフローの50%を成長投資に、50%を株主還元に割り当てる財務方針を維持していると述べた。自社株買いを含む還元策は四半期ごとに見直される。

リスクおよび注視項目

• 異常気象が米国の操業に影響を与えたほか、チリのエル・アブラでは法面（のりめん）管理のための採掘順序の調整が制約となった。
• インドネシアでの異常乾燥は採掘にはプラスとなったものの、選鉱処理量を増やすための利用可能水量が減少した。
• 2026年のエネルギーコストは主に軽油の値上がりにより2025年比で約5億ドル増加した。濃硫酸の価格は年内で2倍以上に高騰した。
• 鉱業セクターの資本コストは総合インフレ率よりも急速に上昇しており、拡張および維持プロジェクトの実施リスクを高めている。
• 2027年の設備投資予測には、投資額45億ドル規模となる可能性があるバグダッド拡張計画の支出は含まれていない。
• 次世代の浸出用添加剤は現場環境で未実証であり、2030年に8億ポンドという目標はあくまで意欲的な目標にとどまる。
• クチン・リアーの開発スピードは計画よりやや遅れているが、生産拡大の開始時期は依然として2029〜2030年中と予想されている。

アナリストQ&Aの要点

グラスバーグの生産ペース：経営陣は2027年にかけて生産が増加すると見込んでいる。搬送システムのアップグレードやパネル（採掘区画）の再開が進むにつれ、第1四半期が最小となり、下半期の生産量は上半期を上回る見通しである。

グラスバーグの操業停止・復旧費用：第3四半期に発生した約2億4,000万ドルの操業停止・復旧費用は主に固定費と説明された。これらは稼働率上昇後も消失しないが、生産量の増加に伴い2027年以降は単位コストへ吸収される見込みである。

浸出予測の上振れ余地：現場での結果が研究所でのテスト結果と同等であれば、2027年および2028年の3億ポンドという予測は保守的となる可能性がある。経営陣は商用テストが完了するまで、この潜在的な上振れを公式ガイダンスには含めていない。

バグダッドの採算性とスケジュール：FCXは約45億ドルのコスト見積もりを維持し、追加の許認可は不要であると述べた。本プロジェクトは最終投資決定から約3.5年後に生産を開始する可能性がある。

資本配分およびM&A：既存鉱山（ブラウンフィールド）パイプラインに支えられた自律的成長（オーガニック成長）が引き続き基本戦略である。経営陣は買収機会の監視を継続していると述べたものの、M&Aを最優先の成長計画とは位置付けていない。

コスト見通し：現在のエネルギー価格状況はFCXの計画前提に組み込まれている。経営陣は、原材料コストの正常化ではなく、生産性の向上と銅生産量の拡大が米国における単位コスト削減の主因になると見込んでいる。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan Third Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Joint, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

David Joint

Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Freeport conference call. Earlier this morning, FCX reported its third quarter operating and financial results. A copy of today's press release with supplemental schedules and slides are available on our website, fcx.com. Today's conference call is being broadcast live on the Internet. Anyone may listen to the conference call by accessing our website home page and clicking on the webcast link. In addition to analysts and investors, the financial press has been invited to listen to today's call. A replay of the webcast will be available on our website later today.

Before we begin our comments, we would like to remind everyone that today's press release and certain of our comments on the call include non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the cautionary language included in our press release and slides and to the risk factors described in our SEC filings, all of which are available on our website.

Also on the call with me today are Richard Adkerson, Chairman of the Board; Kathleen Quirk, President and Chief Executive Officer; Maree Robertson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and other members of our management team. Richard will make some opening remarks. Kathleen and Maree will review our slide materials and then we'll open up the call for questions.

Richard?

Richard Adkerson

Thanks, David. We appreciate you all for joining us today. We've been looking forward to speaking with you about our strong third quarter results and our positive outlook for the future. We are pleased and proud of our team with a steady progress throughout the year achieved on the Grasberg ramp up and with our initiatives across our business to drive value. As we look forward, the table is set for growing our volumes in the near term, medium term and longer term, supported by our portfolio of long-lived assets and by a qualified and experienced team.

Leaders in Indonesia have expressed support for the extension of our operating rights beyond 2041. We continue to work with the Ministry of Energy and Mines on documentation to implement the Memorandum of Understanding we signed with the government of Indonesia. Freeport's growth plans match up exceptionally well with accelerating requirements for copper. Electrification continues to advance at a rapid pace, bigger and faster than we've seen in the past and copper is the metal of electrification. The world requires a lot more copper and supplies are challenged. Freeport is particularly well positioned to grow with the market.

After working in this industry for decades, today's opportunity where structural trends point to a multiyear period of significant demand growth is unique. We have Freeport on the right assets at the right time with a strong team in the Freeport family and our strong financial position, we are well positioned to capture this opportunity for the benefit of our shareholders and all our stakeholders.

Kathleen?

Kathleen Quirk

Great. Thank you, Richard, and thank all of you for participating on today's call. We will review our third quarter performance and update you on our initiatives, projects and future outlook. Today, we will be discussing our team's work across our global business to build value. Our solid progress and momentum to safely and sustainably restore large-scale production at Grasberg, drive operational excellence and new technology initiatives in the Americas and advanced plans for value-enhancing organic growth.

Starting on Slide 3, we show the highlights of our third quarter performance. Copper sales have increased in each of the last 3 quarters, and we expect fourth quarter sales to be the strongest of the year by far. Steady progress continues at Grasberg with 67% ramp-up achieved and confidence is building towards full scale. Strong operational execution, combined with the favorable metal price backdrop, provided significant margins, cash flows and earnings. The diversity of our portfolio and pricing leverage for our U.S. business comes through in the results.

Operating income for our U.S. mining operations more than doubled in the third quarter compared with last year's third quarter with strong conversion to the bottom line. This contributed to an increase of over 80% in our consolidated net income compared with the year ago quarter. The progress achieved during 2026 sets us up for growing volumes and improving financial performance as we look ahead to 2027 and 2028. Additionally, we are advancing our future growth plans with a series of projects in progress.

We returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders year-to-date, including $300 million in share purchases. Our financial position remains strong. And as we look ahead, growing volumes, combined with a positive market environment for our products sets us up for significant increase in cash flows to support our value-enhancing investment program and increasing returns to shareholders.

Moving to the copper markets on Slide 4. As a leading global supplier of refined copper, Freeport has strategic significance and is strongly positioned to benefit from copper's essential and increasingly important role in societies around the world. Copper's superior conductivity makes it the metal of electrification and the global economy is rapidly becoming more electrified. Globally, copper demand is expected to rise in a number of applications, including the massive requirements for the power grid to support new technologies.

LME copper prices averaged $6.09 per pound year-to-date through September and currently approximate $6.58 per pound on the LME, an increase of 16% since the start of the year. Our U.S. customers report robust copper demand associated with growing requirements for electricity and energy infrastructure, data center builds and in the transportation sector. Copper continues to be strategically significant to China as the world's largest consumer to support its domestic power grid, technology advancement, and manufacturing of autos and consumer goods for growing exports.

The sizable movement of product to U.S. warehouses continues, resulting in tight market conditions in the major consuming regions outside of the U.S. The situation underscores the strategic role of copper in the global economy and supply chains to support future growth. The signals we see are clearly pointing to requirements for additional copper supplies to meet growing demand. And at Freeport, we have a valuable, geographically diverse portfolio of integrated copper assets with large-scale production facilities that are difficult to replicate, long-life reserves and resources and a portfolio of low-risk brownfield expansion opportunities to serve a growing market.

I'm going to move to the operating highlights on Slide 5, where we summarize the highlights by geographic region. Starting with the U.S., we continue to focus on operating disciplines to improve efficiencies and productivity to grow production despite low ore grades. We were successful in improving our mining rates compared with the year ago quarter. However, in an abnormally high frequency of extreme weather events in the third quarter, which have continued in the fourth quarter disrupted some of the momentum achieved earlier in the year. We are deploying new technology tools to enhance our operating models and are investing in more efficient trucks and mining equipment to support our objective of increasing U.S. production and reducing costs.

We've continued to pursue an exceptional opportunity to unlock meaningful value through application of new technologies for recovering copper in our leaching processes. Data from our work today to support of a potential breakthrough and we are looking forward to what we'll learn as we go through 2027 as high potential next-generation proprietary additives are deployed in the field.

In South America, our flagship Cerro Verde operation in Peru continues to demonstrate solid operating performance and productivity consistent with the large-scale, world-class operation. At El Abra in Chile, oil rates and operating rates were impacted during the quarter by mine sequencing to address slope management. We're now commissioning new facilities at lab that will allow us to enhance metal production by increasing temperatures in our leach pads. We continue to work with the Chilean government to advance our environmental impact study to position El Abra for a major transformative expansion.

In Indonesia, we are pleased to report that the team continues to achieve meaningful progress on the ramp-up at the Grasberg Block Cave. We operated at 67% of mine capacity during the third quarter and progress is advancing for meaningful growth as we go into 2027. Upgrades to the material handling system for our automated rail system are progressing on schedule, and we continue to advance work for a restart of production Block 1 South in 2027. We continue to target overall rates reaching 80% by mid-'27 and approach full capacity by the end of next year. We were successful in restarting the smelter and now have both smelters in Indonesia in operation to support our mine ramp up. The team is executing the phase ramp up safely and efficiently, and we continue to derisk the plans and increase confidence in our long-term outlook.

In Indonesia, we continue to experience abnormally dry weather conditions and are closely monitoring forecast, which predict conditions to return to more normal levels as we move into 2027. The dry conditions are generally favorable for mining, but low water availability presents challenges in increasing mill rates. We're accurately managing the situation with limited impact to date. As Richard mentioned, we're continuing to work cooperatively with the Indonesian government to secure our long-term operating extension in accordance with the MoU reached earlier in the year. We submitted our application in June, and we're continuing to work to complete the formal process. The government continues to express support for extension to provide long-term continuity of large-scale operations and mutual benefits.

Big picture, the third quarter, the team executed well but experienced challenging operating conditions. You'll note, we continue to expect the fourth quarter will be the strongest of the year, but have adjusted our 2026 copper sales by approximately 2% to incorporate the impact of short files in the U.S. and in Chile. Our team is committed to execution, dedicated to overcoming challenges and driven for excellence in all that we do.

I'm going to move to Slide 6, where we have some real excitement around Freeport about the growth catalysts. We're driven to increase copper supply to a growing market and we're strongly positioned as we look forward with significant near-term, medium-term and long-term growth. The progress we've made throughout 2026 positions us for significant growth in volumes, margins and cash flows in 2027 and 2028 as Maree will cover shortly. In the short term, we're positioned to grow from 3 billion pounds this year to 3.7 billion pounds in 2027 and over 4 billion pounds in 2028.

Continued strong execution of the Grasberg recovery is the major driver with improved U.S. production, adding incrementally. This growth notably does not require new capital. With our U.S. growth initiative as America's Copper Champion, we see a path for Freeport to be a 4.5 billion to 5 billion-pound a year copper producer in the 2030 time frame with success in our innovative Leach initiative and our expansion of our Bagdad mine in Arizona.

We continue to see the innovative Leach initiative as one of the most attractive opportunities in our company because it leverages our existing infrastructure is scalable, is not capital intensive and has low incremental operating costs. We've been on this journey and advancing this initiative for the last 3 to 4 years, and our excitement continues to build, supported by progress in developing a proprietary next-generation additive that would unlock recoveries of low-grade ores previously thought to be unrecoverable.

As you'll see in the chart, lab testing of the new Freeport additive is showing incremental recoveries of more than 4x those achieved with our initial additive. The next-generation additive is now being manufactured on a fast-track schedule, and we'll start receiving commercial quantities for field deployment as we go into 2027. While we need to be cautious until it's proven in the field, this could represent the major breakthrough technology that we've been working to achieve. We expect to make an investment decision on the Bagdad down expansion in the fourth quarter. Very excited about this. We see it as an attractive opportunity to transform Bagdad into the second largest copper mine in the U.S., benefiting from economies of scale and the use of modern technology to set the operation up for improved multi-decade performance.

We're also advancing further growth options which could be developed by the mid-2030s with a large-scale expansion of the El Abra mine in Chile and exciting possibilities for development of our large resource position in the Safford Lone Star District in Arizona. We see our pipeline of organic growth being particularly attractive in the context of an industry where greenfield projects carry significant risk and development time frames can span 15 to 20 years. We have a differentiated advantageous position since our projects are brownfield in nature, resulting in benefits from leveraging existing infrastructure, lower capital intensity, experienced workforces and relationships with key stakeholders to move more quickly with less risk than a greenfield project.

We're increasingly mindful of escalating inflationary pressures affecting capital costs for major projects and the need to be disciplined on qualifying projects delivering investment returns and carefully controlling budgets and schedules. We're going to continue to be focused, selective and deliberate as we go forward and on balancing investments in growth with shareholder returns. At Freeport, we benefit from an experienced and highly respected project development team with proven experience in successfully managing major projects around the world. Putting this all together, the setup for Freeport is exceptionally strong and Team Freeport is intensely focused on execution and delivery to capture the value and the special opportunities that lie ahead.

Now I'm going to turn the call to Maree who will review our outlook and then we'll take your questions.

Maree Robertson

Thanks, Kathleen. Just moving to Slide 7, we show our 3-year outlook for sales volumes of copper, gold and molybdenum. As Kathleen referenced, we expect significant production and sales growth in the coming years. We have [indiscernible] our 2026 copper sales by about 2%, taking into account slightly lower production in the U.S. and Chile and by approximately 2.5% in 2027 reflect current mine plan updates. Copper sales in 2028 are consistent with previous estimates and gold and moly sales are unchanged for the 3-year period. We expect our fourth quarter of 2026 sales volumes to be the highest of the year, with copper sales increasing 17% and gold sales nearly tripling from third quarter levels.

For the year 2027, we expect annual growth in copper sales of over 20% compared with 2026 and more than a 50% increase in gold volumes with additional growth in 2028 of 10% for copper and 20% for gold. Our team remains focused on delivering our plan safely and efficiently, which will translate into strong financial performance and meaningful future cash flow growth.

Moving to Slide 8. We continue to carefully manage all costs and capital whilst driving efficiency and productivity programs particularly in light of inflationary pressures affecting our business and the industry. As discussed on prior calls, we continue to experience cost pressures and volatility in global energy and commodity markets including oil, sulfur and acids, largely associated with the conflicts in the Middle East. Rising energy costs during 2026, particularly diesel prices have impacted costs by approximately $500 million compared with 2025. Sulfuric acid, a key input into various copper processing technologies across the industry, has more than doubled this year. Notably, Freeport is comparatively well positioned given our integrated business model and is generally [indiscernible] from [ price moves ] as a significant producer of sulfuric acid through our smelting operations and consumer of asset in our leaching processes.

In addition to operating costs, capital costs across the mining industry have been trending at a greater pace than overall headline inflation rates in recent years. These pressures affect both sustaining capital and expansion project costs, reinforcing the importance of remaining highly focused on carefully assessing our priorities, pursuing continuous optimization programs. and maintaining rigorous and strict project and cost control. On net unit cash costs, we are maintaining our full year guidance for 2026 of $1.90 per pound with by-products, particularly molybdenum, providing an offset to the impact of higher input costs.

In putting together our projected volumes and cost estimates, we show model results on Slide 9 for EBITDA and cash flow at various copper prices ranging from $5 to $7 copper. These are modeled results using the average of 2027 and 2028 with current volume and cost estimates and holding gold flat at $4,000 per ounce and molybdenum flat at $32 per pound. Annual EBITDA would range from over $12 billion per annum at $5 copper to $19.5 billion at $7 copper. With operating cash flows ranging from over $9 billion per year at $5 or approximately $15 billion at $7 copper. We show sensitivities to various commodities on the right. [indiscernible], we are highly leveraged to copper prices with each $0.10 per pound change equating to approximately $390 million in annual EBITDA in the 2027-2028 period.

We also have exposure to gold prices with each $100 per ounce change in price, approximating $105 million in annual EBITDA. And molybdenum, which has shown significant price strength in recent months, each dollar per pound change in moly approximates $85 million in EBITDA per annum. With our long-life reserves and large-scale production, we are well positioned to generate substantial cash flows to fund future organic growth and cash returns under our performance-based payout framework.

Slide 10 shows our current forecast for capital expenditure in 2026 and 2027. Our 2026 capital expenditure is currently estimated to approximately $4.4 billion, a 2% increase from the prior estimate and $5.2 billion for 2027, an increase of approximately $400 million above the [indiscernible] estimate, primarily reflecting additional mining equipment investments to support and enhanced productivity improvements in the U.S. and cost inflation. The discretionary projects are expected to approximate $1.6 billion in 2026 and $2 billion in 2027, with roughly 50% related to the Kucing Liar development and the LNG project at Grasberg. The balance includes acceleration of tailings and other infrastructure to support the Bagdad expansion upgraded mining equipment and capitalized interest.

The discretionary category reflects the capital investments we are making in new projects that under our financial policy are funded with the 50% of available cash that is not distributed. These projects are value-enhancing initiatives and are detailed on Slide 28 in our reference materials. The capital estimates exclude projects to remain subject to completion of final studies and Board approval, including the potential [ Bagdad ] expansion project. And as I mentioned on the previous slide, we'll continue to carefully manage our spending and deploy capital strategically to projects with the best return and risk reward profiles.

Finally, on Slide 11, we reiterate the financial policy priorities centered on a strong balance sheet, cash returns to shareholders and investments in value-enhancing growth projects. Our balance sheet is solid with investment-grade ratings, robust credit metrics and flexibility within our debt targets to execute on our projects. We have a strong liquidity position and have substantial flexibility for funding upcoming 2027 maturities.

Our strong balance sheet and significant cash flow generation supports disciplined investment in growth -- ind future growth whilst returning cash to shareholders. And since adopting our financial policy in 2021, we have distributed $6.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share purchases, including approximately $1 billion year-to-date in 2026 and have an attractive future long-term portfolio that will enable us to continue to build long-term value for shareholders. Our global team is focused on disciplined execution, profitable growth and long-term value creation.

Thanks for your attention, and we'll now turn to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Richard Garchitorena with Barclays.

質疑応答

Richard Garchitorena

And congrats on the strong quarter. First, my question on Grasberg. Given the progress that you're seeing with ramp-up on track production from Block 1S expected for mid-2027 and then full run rates by the end of the year. How should we think about the cadence of production for copper and gold in the first half of next year versus second half? And then how should we think about the mine plan heading into '28 as you ramp up even further?

Kathleen Quirk

Thank you, Richard. And we're very pleased with the progress that we're making at Grasberg. The installation of the material handling system upgrades is going well. And we expect that those will be ramping up towards the end of this year and early next year. So I think as you look at where we are for 2027, you should see first half starting to ramp up. The second half will likely be higher than the first half. But we expect with the start-up of these panels that are currently down, that will add a lot. PB1 South is not a huge contributor in 2027, but you'll see pretty significant ramp-up throughout the year, but second half will be higher than the first half and the first quarter will probably be the lowest of the year.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.

Christopher LaFemina

So first, I want to say congratulations on the progress you're making at Grasberg. It's been an impressive recovery there in the last couple of quarters. But I wanted to ask about the idle facility cost, the recovery and restoration costs that you book each quarter. I think it's $240-some-odd million in the third quarter, more than $900 million year-to-date. And a question about that, first of all, how much of that is -- relates to costs that are going to go away when Grasberg fully ramps [indiscernible] costs that you're spending to repair the operation versus what portion of those costs are actually kind of fixed costs that you'll continue to carry going forward? That's my first question is around the idle cost at Grasberg.

Kathleen Quirk

Okay. Thanks, Chris. Thanks for your comments. The idle costs are essentially fixed costs. The accounting rules require us to charge costs that are not attributable to production directly to production costs rather than going through cost of sales. But those costs won't go away, but they will be in our unit cost going forward. We expect the fourth quarter because rates are consistent between third quarter and fourth quarter. We expect the fourth quarter to be similar to the third quarter. But beginning in 2027, we don't expect to have those costs treated separately and they'll be in our all-in unit costs. But of course, with the rising volumes, we've got a very significant increase in volumes going from 700 million pounds of copper this year to 1.2 billion next year, you'll see very low unit costs continuing at Grasberg. So it's really an accounting classification as opposed to a change in cost.

Christopher LaFemina

Got it. And just one question on the U.S. operations. So you're doing a lot of good work there in terms of getting mining rates up. Obviously, grades there are low, but I've noticed that recovery rates have been trending lower. And wondering if that will continue and why that might be happening, is the nature of the ore changing? Is this something that's temporary? What's going on there?

Kathleen Quirk

I'm going to let Cory -- Cory Stevens cover that one. But it is -- you're right, your last comment about nature of the different types of ore that does affect recovery. But Cory, why don't you give some color on that?

Cory Stevens

Yes. So Kathleen and [indiscernible] -- the really, the recovery rates are driven by the -- how the ore body presents itself. And we've really been mining lower volumes in past years. To be honest, we're missing expectations of where we really wanted to be, and there's a bit of catch up at this point in time as we increase volumes and the ore presents itself to get to the better locations for better grade. And so that's where a lot of our focus is really placed on increasing mine performance and really adjusting to the employed various technologies as we go forward, we launched our -- officially launched our remote operating center here in Phoenix. They really coupled a high operating standard with state-of-the-art technology and analytics to be able to deploy and work with the teams at sites to help them be successful as they work through the higher volumes. We're implementing new tooling with new -- higher pay load [indiscernible] trucks, better mine plans and road designs. But really, we see the solution going forward at this point with higher volumes to really set these processing plants up and then coupling that with the new technologies that we're developing on the leach enhancements and the additives on that front.

Christopher LaFemina

So do you expect the recovery rates to rise from where they are today? Or should they stabilize where they are?

Cory Stevens

Yes. So really, that kind of goes back to this additive development work, which is really giving us a lot of confidence that our Gen1 additives, we've deployed in 2025 and 2026. That's really giving us expected results from our lab protocols, and that gives us confidence that our Gen2 additives are really going to really launch us into this next phase of development that really could change quite everything in terms of how we're going to be leveraging the copper that's in the existing stockpile, but also harness the resource that's in the ground still. So we're really pretty excited about where that's headed.

And we've got limited demonstrations that are in the portfolio right now that's really going to set the stage for how we really want to leverage that going forward. But we're quite optimistic on how that's going to play out. And yes, there's going to be learnings with those commercial developed -- deployments that we have planned in 2027, but the team stands ready to adapt and adjust as we pursue America's Copper Champion.

Kathleen Quirk

And Chris, I think you're referring to -- Cory was talking about the leach recoveries, but I think you're also referring to the mill recoveries and those are impacted by the types of ore and what those recoveries are. So those will vary depending on the types of ores that are being milled. But as Cory was saying, we're really very excited about the opportunities in the U.S. We're thinking bigger and bolder. These resources are very large. They're low grade. But the more that we can drive productivity and we're leveraging technology, we see that as a major value unlock for us. The more that we can drive productivity, Cory talked about a different kind of trucks that we're using. We've had great success with those in Peru at Cerro Verde. And those are going to be -- allow us to be more efficient, more productive as we go forward.

And so we're really focused on increasing our mining rates in the U.S., particularly at Morenci, where we pretty much process everything that we mine there. And the more progress we make on building those mining rates up, the better we're going to be in terms of increasing production in the U.S., not just from the leach but also through our mill. So we're very excited about the opportunity to enhance our operating models within our U.S. mines.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic

Maybe staying on the U.S. side, specifically on the leach thing. I think you mentioned that the new additives are performing as expected, but it does seem that leaching ramp-up is a bit slower than previously expected. Can you talk about what is driving that?

Kathleen Quirk

So as Cory was talking about, the current additive that we're using is showing what we expected in the lab. It's consistent, maybe a bit better than what it was predicted to be in the lab. We have always been, as I mentioned over the last couple of years, we've always been testing multiple additives. And so we have not yet tested in the field this next-generation additive that is -- that has the potential to put us on the path for scale. That, combined with the work that we're doing to increased temperature of our stockpiles has the potential to really help us with scale. We've got 300 million pounds targeted in 2027 compared to just over 200 million in 2026. But those new additives, which I said are being manufactured now, really show the potential that we were looking for to supercharge these recoveries.

So we'll have to wait a little bit longer, but the optimism is an excitement around this initiative is building because we have -- as we've talked about before, over 40 billion pounds of copper that's already been mined, it's in aboveground stockpiles and prior technologies didn't allow us to recover copper from it. And so now with the promise of potential next-generation additives, we see a real opportunity to build scale.

So to date, we've been using principally operating tactics to get more solution to areas within the stockpile that were dry. But now we're able to enhance that with additives. We've started to -- with the initial additive, but we expect that, that will be replaced with these new additives we've got coming in, in 2027. So this is going to evolve. It will be a dynamic period for us in 2027, but we really see it having the potential to unlock a lot of copper throughout not just in North America but South America, a lot of copper as we go forward. And again, this is something proprietary to Freeport, very proud of the teams that we have that have been working on this to unlock this value. It's unlike anything we have in the mining industry because it doesn't require significant new capital. So stay tuned, but we're very, very excited about what lies ahead.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Orest Wowkodaw with Scotiabank.

Orest Wowkodaw

I'm wondering if you can give us some more color on the increase to the CapEx guidance for '27? It looks like it would up $400 million from the Q2 guidance. Is there -- is that just inflation on the existing plan projects? Or have you added, I guess, have you added projects to the list?

Kathleen Quirk

Well, we've added in our -- the category that we call Other, Sustaining and Other, we've added more mining equipment. As I mentioned, the success we've had with ultra-class trucks in Peru at Cerro Verde has been very strong. And so we've added some additional trucks to allow us to continue to increase mining rates to unlock more production, more copper production as we go forward. So that was about half or so of the increase. We do have some inflation that's part of it, and we have some additional costs as we complete the project at Atlantic Copper, the circular project that we expect to complete during 2027. So those are the key categories.

But as Maree mentioned, we are seeing capital cost inflation. You see [indiscernible] up and it's trended higher than CPI in recent years. So we are continuing to work to control costs, to prioritize what makes sense. But from a big picture standpoint, this industry, historically, in recent years, I mean, arguably has been underinvested. And as we look forward at making sure that we've got the ability to grow our business in line with where we see demand for copper growing, we've got to be thinking bigger and bolder. That doesn't mean we're not going to control spend. We're going to control spend, it's in our DNA. But bigger and bolder in terms of how can we get more out of our existing assets and incremental capital spend can make us more efficient, more productive, help us address the labor challenges that we have.

So we're thinking differently about the future than maybe we have in the past in terms of making sure that all these operations are producing at their max rates to be able to meet the requirements of the future. And as we've been saying, what we see in front of us is very significant growth in demand, and we've got to be prepared to step up to that demand and do it in a profitable and economic way. But that's part of what you're seeing, Orest.

Orest Wowkodaw

Appreciate the color. Is it fair to sort of read into this that, that approach likely continues into '28 in terms of more of an elevated spend?

Kathleen Quirk

Well, as we see the markets today, we see a need a signal to produce more. And so we're going to be looking within our portfolio of what is the cheapest way, the most economic and productive way to build new capacity and get more out of what we already have, the resources that we already have. So if we can add incremental capital and get benefits and quick payouts, those are things that we're going to be inclined to do. Now we've got also the major project and our Board will be considering the investment in Bagdad, we're very enthusiastic about moving forward with that project.

So -- but as we look at this, it all fits into our balance of investing in our business, growing our copper production to match what we see is strong demand going forward. The absence of supply growth across the industry, the absence of real significant supply growth. So what we're doing is trying to figure out on a brownfield basis how can we get more to be able to meet these demands. So that's -- and we'll monitor it. We'll monitor market conditions as well. At Freeport, we've had a long history of adjusting to market conditions. If we need to conserve capital, we can. But as we see it right now, these are going to be very strong economic capital decisions that we're making that help us set us up for the future growth that we're pursuing.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.

Lawson Winder

And congratulations on the nice quarter. If I could I'd like to ask about Bagdad and the investment decision that's expected in Q4 '26. I mean I think this is a really exciting moment for Freeport USA. When thinking about the CapEx that you've now put out, the $4.5 billion, you've had now another quarter to refine the engineering work, do you see any potential change in that $4.5 billion estimate? And then could you just walk us through time lines, are there any permits outstanding that still need to be concluded post an FID decision later this quarter? And then when would be a reasonable time for us to assume commissioning would start for this asset and then ultimately run rate capacity?

Kathleen Quirk

Thanks. In terms of permits, we don't -- we have what we need to go forward with this expansion. We've been working on it for some time. We've been spending money to ready the operation for this investment. We have been advancing work on our tailings down there to be -- that we would have needed to do any way down the road, but to be ready for new production. We have converted the haulage fleet there to fully autonomous to prepare for the ability to scale.

One of the things that has been a factor for us and thinking about growing in the U.S. has been the tight labor market, particularly for the types of skills that we need. And so we have been leaning on technology to help us scale. And at Bagdad, that was the first mine we selected to deploy the autonomous trucks. And so as we move forward with an expansion that will allow us to scale and add autonomy -- continue to add autonomous trucks to scale that without needing to as many people as we would have otherwise needed.

But in terms of your question on the capital cost, our estimate now on a go-forward basis is still at that $4.5 billion level. We've done a lot of work on it this year. We've been working with our contractors. We've been working to make it as efficient as possible. It's a competitive market in Arizona with all of the not just copper projects, but all the other activity really is driving demand for skills in Arizona, in the semiconductor sector with all the build going on and in electricity build-out and data centers, it's a very active time in Arizona.

And so we have been planning this working to derisk the capital as much as possible, working on a model that would allow us to prefab certain of the material so we didn't have to -- we don't have to do everything or limit what's done on site. So we've been doing a lot of things to try to derisk the capital, but it is an environment where, as we mentioned, escalation, labor costs, cost of steel, other things, tariffs, other things that are affecting cost energy markets have a degree of an impact. So all those things are things that we're taking into account and we don't know what the future inflation will be. But in current dollars, we're drawing a circle around $4.5 billion, and we're going to work very hard to manage both the capital spend and the time schedule. We expect the project would come in within the next from the final decision coming around 3.5 years.

And so our team is well organized. One of the things about Freeport is we have a project development execution team that is best-in-class. And the project controls are excellent, our work with contractors is very strong. We have an approach where we don't just turn over a project to a contractor to execute. We're right in there executing all the costs and everything are on our system so that we can manage and control those.

Having said that, it's a challenging environment. But if any team was ready, this team is ready. This -- a lot of the people on this team that we're forming have -- were integral in getting that smelter done in Indonesia during a very challenging time during the pandemic and really worked hard to bring that project in. So we've got resource capacity within the company that are -- dedicated to this. We've got contractors that we've been working with for some time, both on the EPC side and on our labor side.

And so we feel we're ready. We're going to talk with the board about it, but this is a real opportunity for us as America's Copper Champion to leverage what we have there, the facilities are currently under sized for the size of the resource. And so we're really looking at this for the long term and to set this operation up to be more efficient, more modernized. This was done in the 1940s and more modernized and this will be a mine of the future and one that we're very excited about moving forward. So we'll make a decision with our Board here soon and hopefully be on our way.

In terms of the incremental production, the Bagdad we're looking at doubling, it would be something [indiscernible] 200 million, 250 million pounds a year. The concentrator size will be more than doubled. We're also -- we benefited Bagdad from a large amount of molybdenum production, so we'll be adding 10 million to 12 million pounds a year of molybdenum. So big feature of the project is using economies of scale to bring down our costs, and that's what we're focused on across the U.S. is finding ways to reduce our costs as we go forward.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Timna Tanners with Wells Fargo.

Timna Tanners

I wanted to ask, if I could, 2 quick follow-ups. One is regarding the leaching discussion, really helpful detail on the potential benefits from the new additives. But I wanted to just clarify, is it possible that this additive is not in your numbers right now and could result in upside to your numbers? Or do you think that the success of the additive would be beyond 2027? Just a little more color on that. And then -- yes, I'll ask the one next, sure.

Kathleen Quirk

We got -- we have 300 million pounds in our numbers for '27 and '28. That is lower than potentially could be expected if the additive is as successful in the field as it is in the lab. And then with that data, that would give us the plan to decide where to go. This is a test. It's a commercial test. We've got enough quantities that we've got manufactured to be able to fully test it. But if it's successful, this could be really what we've been looking for. And you could have a situation where leach recoveries start to compete with a mill recovery, and that could have implications to how we think about the future, like the Safford opportunity we're pursuing -- we're pursuing a mill, but that could change the flow sheet as well.

So -- but remember, our target or our potential or our aspiration is to scale the leach opportunity from just over 200 million this year to 300 million next year. And then ultimately, by 2030 to get to this 800 million level. And that would be done with a combination of a successful leach additive and the increased temperatures that we're currently testing now. We're testing -- we're just starting a project at El Abra now to heat the solution that's going into the stockpiles there. We're doing some at Cerro Verde, where we have smaller stock smaller leaching operations, and we have plans to do it in Morenci as well.

But we'll have to see the testing work that we're doing is showing really strong recoveries and is a possibility that we may not even need heat in the U.S. if the recoveries are as good as what the lab is showing. So it's dynamic, and we'll have a lot more information as we go through '27. But it's not in our forecast. We feel confident we can get to 300 million, but the 800 million is going to depend on the results in the field. And so we're not at a point where we can give guidance. We see it as a potential value driver that we're pursuing aggressively. But we're not in a point to put it into our forecast.

Timna Tanners

Okay. I appreciate that. And if I could, I know you've been talking, of course, about organic growth opportunities, but to the extent that this high copper price yields a pretty attractive free cash flow going forward. Do you consider M&A? Do you consider other ways to grow outside of your organic opportunities?

Kathleen Quirk

Always. I mean, as we have our base case plan of organic growth. And at Freeport, we have -- we're advantaged in that we do have a significant organic growth pipeline. But we're always monitoring market opportunities. Richard just did a podcast for those of you who haven't seen it yet, he did a podcast with Andrea Hatter about the [indiscernible] deal. And for those of you who haven't seen it, you should see it because it was a -- it's a good example. We're going on our 20-year anniversary there. And at the time, we didn't expect that opportunity to become available but we were prepared and we're ready to move on it and it ended up being, I believe, one of the best M&A transactions in our sector going back to looking at where we were and where Freeport is today.

So we'll continue to monitor the landscape, look for opportunities that could add value to the company. But we're on a path with our base case of creating value through our organic plan. So I would not rule out M&A, but it's not -- our base case is our organic growth opportunities, which we can create a lot of value from.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

William Peterson

I guess on the impact of costs, so $500 million higher in '26 relative to '25, I might have missed it, but can you provide a further breakdown between diesel and electricity as well as callouts per region, U.S. and Indonesia and South America?

Kathleen Quirk

Yes. As I think Maree covered some of that in her comments. For 2025, compared -- I mean '26 compared to '25, it's on the order of $500 million and increased energy, which includes electricity and diesel. Diesel was the biggest factor. But we are seeing -- we are seeing increased electricity rates. We saw that quarter-to-quarter in the U.S. between second quarter and third quarter, significant increase in electricity rates. But the biggest part of that was diesel, and you've seen more than doubling of diesel costs for the year. But we consume about 275 million gallons of diesel a year. And 100 million of that is in the U.S. and then we've got 80 million in Peru and the balance in Indonesia.

William Peterson

Thanks, Kathleen. And then I guess on -- for the next year, the PFS for Safford Lone Star, is there any more granularity you can provide on that timing? And I guess conceptually, when we think about the capital intensity of dollars per ton, when we think about Bagdad, I'm not sure a lot of that may be U.S. related to labor and other costs. But I guess that's like over $40,000 per tonne. Is that the right kind of ballpark? What would bring that in lower? What could bring that in, I guess, higher as we think about capital intensity?

Kathleen Quirk

With the Bagdad one, when you consider the molybdenum credits, so on a copper equivalent basis, it's around $35,000 a ton. But the Lone Star Safford, we're looking at potentially a mill on the same size as at Bagdad. We do have some gold at one of the deposits at Safford. So that's helpful. But as I said, one of the things that we are wanting to get more information on as we go into '27 to kind of form our final views on the ultimate development of Lone Star and Safford is the success of the leaching initiative. So that will play into ultimately what the flow sheet looks like so we're feeding in data to those studies as we get it to do the trade-off work.

But one thing, Bill, that -- I know you know this, but one thing to point out when you're comparing capital cost intensity across different operations, one of the things that needs to be taken into account in overall economics is the U.S. fiscal situation where while you might have a higher capital intensity because of the lower grades, you -- it offsets itself because you don't have royalties. Our tax rate is very low in the U.S. And so there's some offsetting factors that make the economics attractive. So all those things need to come and play. You can't just compare capital intensity and say one project is better than the other.

Cory, do you want to add anything about Lone Star or Safford that I didn't mention?

Cory Stevens

No. Yes. I think all those trade-offs really are going to converge to give us the right solution, but we're trying to balance capital intensity versus the value proposition and how do we best harness the resource between leaching and milling. It's not really one solution or the other, but it's going to be a combination of both that's really unlocking the true value.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Daniel Major with UBS.

Daniel Major

Maybe a couple just focusing back on Grasberg. The longer-dated production guidance given in the mine plan has come down a little bit over the last couple of updates. Can you just walk us through the drivers there? I think you previously said it's not associated with normalizing after the [indiscernible]. And then associated with that, have you -- has anything changed with respect to bringing back PB1C and PB1N and are they needed to achieve sustainable production in line with the guidance you've given over the medium term?

Kathleen Quirk

In terms of the overall 5 years at Grasberg is very similar to the prior guidance. I think there was a small change in 2030 from what we had previously. But in general, the plan that we laid out in the last quarter is consistent. Each quarter, we update our plans. We go through updates to the expected mine sequence, what makes sense in terms of the production rates. Right now, with the El Nino situation and limits on the mill on water availability, what we end up doing is reducing some production, that's very low grade. So ultimately, we maximize as much as possible the metal production and adjust the mill rates to do that to maximize it.

But the long-term plans include a restart of PB1 South, as we said, in the -- by midyear. We also are continuing to evaluate the restart of PB1C, which is where the actual -- where the incident occurred. And PB1C is a very small piece of our -- you look at '28, it's very inconsequential. As you go out, it's a little bit more by 2030. It's probably 3% to 6%, 3% for copper, 6% for gold in the 2030 time frame. But we're constantly looking at what's the right way from a safety standpoint, productivity standpoint to mine GBC. And so that will continue to evolve as we go forward.

We also are reviewing the schedule for Kucing Liar. That is expected to start ramping up in the 2029, 2030 time frame. And with the focus that we've had on the GBC, we are somewhat behind on development rates in KL. So we're working on looking at our plans there to figure out what we can make up between now and then. But our focus has been on a safe and sustainable ramp-up of Grasberg, and we feel a big picture that's well in hand.

Mark, I don't know if you want to add anything to any of those comments.

Mark Johnson

No, you said it well. We really haven't changed anything with the PB1 North and PB1C. We continue to look at options that will potentially make it more robust. And we're also working on -- as we look at the 5 years, PB3, PB4 all play a big role. We've been doing some rehab in PB3, but we're beginning the undercutting and PB4 as well. Along with the major production that's coming out of PB2 right now, I think Kathleen mentioned the construction of the conveyor or the [ sheet galleries ] is going well, both in the PB2 area and for the restart of PB1 South.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.

Bob Brackett

Coming back to the Gen 2 additives. You mentioned you'll have sufficient quantities to start a trial in 2027. Should we think about a 6- to 12-month trial so that perhaps this time next year, will go -- will know whether it's go or no-go? Or could it be a bit faster than that?

Kathleen Quirk

No, I think that's a good -- I think that is a good benchmark to use. Interestingly, as it's gone -- in the testing we've done, the longer it stays under leach the better recovery. So the tail continues to increase as it goes. So that -- we'll be getting information continually. But I think we'll have some information this time next year, and we'll update you quarterly, of course. This is something we're very, very excited about. I can't wait to get it in. And so we'll keep you updated as we get -- as we have additional insights. .

Bob Brackett

Yes, the fact that you mentioned that it could compete with no recoveries is quite a tease, but my follow-up would be talking about Grasberg risk management. You have 4 initiatives around mud removal. Two of them underway. And it feels like the slower of the 2 initiatives, you've slipped a little. Should we interpret that as a good thing that the early initiatives are doing their job? Or how should we think about that delay from '27 to '28?

Kathleen Quirk

I'm going to give that to Mark to comment on. Mark Johnson?

Mark Johnson

Yes, we -- just as we got into the 2 projects that you mentioned, the in-pit pumping and the drift that we're developing. Those are both going well. We -- we're still learning a bit more about -- well, as we got into the drift development, there was a little bit of poor ground. We've gotten through that. That's going well now. A lot of them were just a little bit of an adjustment. It's nothing major. We believe all of these initiatives that are going on in parallel are going to be tools that we have available to us. And we just want to have all the options possible as we get into the PB1 restart.

Obviously, El Nino has helped us out a great deal like we're not getting as much -- we're getting very little water in some of the dewatering drilling that we put into the pit bottom, and that's simply because it's dried up. So the drier weather, although it's had some challenges, as Kathleen mentioned, on our mill rate, it's really helped us in a lot of areas, particularly in GBC on these initiatives.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Nick Cash with Goldman Sachs.

Nicklaus Cash

Just wanted to jump back to the U.S. for a second and your comments of $500 million of higher energy costs versus '25. With U.S. site production and delivery cost now at around $3.80 per pound versus 3.65% last quarter for the full year. Just as we bridge into '27, how much of the cost increase should reverse with, I guess, normalized U.S. weather or operating rates versus remain embedded from some of the structurally higher cost inputs that you mentioned before in terms of labor or other input cost inflation?

Kathleen Quirk

Yes. Well, we -- in the -- in all of our numbers that Maree was talking about in terms of EBITDA, et cetera, we have baked into our numbers kind of the current energy market environment. And so we're not -- at some point, hopefully, those will start to decline but those are baked in. The thing that we can bring down the unit cost for in the U.S., the thing that has the biggest potential is getting volumes up, copper volumes up. And that's -- we're working to do that with increasing the mining rates. But next year, we are expecting an increase from this year. Of course, we've got the increase in leach, but we've also got some other small increases, but that really is what our -- our goal is to build productivity, increase the production in the U.S. to reduce the overall cost.

But we are -- we've got high energy costs right now, asset costs, while we're insulated globally, we are affected. When you look at the U.S., we're a net buyer of acid -- that's offset our revenues elsewhere as Maree was talking about, but it does show up -- the asset prices do show up in the unit cost. Materials and supplies, with the -- it had moderated a lot. But now with the inflationary environment, we're starting to see increases again. So the thing that we can do the best is to improve our productivity and Cory was touching on some of the things we're doing to do that around technology and that's going to be the biggest driver for us to control the unit cost is getting more productivity.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.

Brian MacArthur

Can I go back to the comment that was made, the teaser as Bob called it for recoveries from the leaching that you might get up to mill like levels. And if I look at getting some 300 million pounds to 800 million pounds, how much of that is recovery improvement versus just more volume over time? I guess maybe the way asked is none of this other stuff works, can you go above 300 million? Or conversely, if you do get the mill like recoveries, can you get above 800 million out in 2030?

Kathleen Quirk

Ultimately, it's about recoveries. So when you look at the residual copper that's in our stockpiles, it depends on the ore types. But at Morenci, for instance, the recovery is very, very low. So if you have an uplift of 40% or more, that's not going to be a mill recovery. But in places like [indiscernible], where the leach recoveries is higher to start with, you add 40% or more, and you get closer to 80% or 85%. So it depends on the ore types that are involved.

But the thing that could help us in addition to -- in addition to the residual copper is these additives are going to be helping us also with new placements. So we're just going to have to wait, Brian, I don't want to speculate on whether it could be over or under 800 million. We've been through the model several times, and we feel that 800 million is -- it's aspirational, but it's -- you can model it based on what we know. So let us -- give us a few more quarters to give you more feedback specifically on what that could look like.

The 200 million was really tactical things. Those are things like having sensors everywhere that tell you where you need to put more solution. And so we've been doing that. We've been injecting solution to targeted levels using advanced drilling and targeted drilling. We've been using helicopters to drop drip lines where they couldn't be -- it couldn't be accessed in the past. So we've been doing a lot of tactical things to get what we call get the rocks wet. This new era over the next few years will be about technology. And it will be about the additive plus the work we're doing to increase temperature of the stockpile. So both of those things coming together is where we see the production curve starting to scale. But we're at the point now where we have to test it and see how it does in the field and what the implications are.

Brian MacArthur

Great. That's very helpful color. And maybe if I could ask another question. I know it's not core business. But just on the molybdenum, it's come up a number of times in the call. You do have a slide talking about being the world's largest moly producer. How much excess capacity is there in the primary? I mean it's in the U.S., so I would think if you could get it up in these markets it'd be a good thing to do. And my second question is, if the sales go down next year, is that just by product coming out of the U.S. mines or the international lines? Like why would it go down next year in a good moly market?

Kathleen Quirk

Yes. It will vary. We've got our 2 primary mines and then the production will vary depending on what the production is from our byproduct lines. We're very positive on the outlook for moly. A lot of the same drivers that we're talking about with copper, supply challenges at the same time where uses from molybdenum are growing. So we see it as -- we see it as a privileged business we have is in being the world's largest producer.

We do have some opportunities to expand primary at [indiscernible], and so we're kind of dusting off our old schedules of those to look at those. But our priority, Brian, is really to move copper, but we'll continue to look at what the opportunities are so that we can have additional optionality in the moly business.

Operator

Our final question will come from the line of Liam Fitzpatrick with Deutsche Bank.

Liam Fitzpatrick

Two quick ones, I hope. Firstly, just a clarification on the CapEx guidance for 2027. Does that include anything for Bagdad in terms of the $4.5 billion project number that could be approved later this year? And then the second one is just on buybacks based on what you're showing us here on sensitivities. At current spot prices, there could be a very material uplift in cash flows next year. So based on that 50% of available cash flows that could be returned to shareholders, how often do you make that decision in terms of how much stock to buy back? Is it on a kind of rolling quarterly basis? Or is it less frequent?

Kathleen Quirk

We generally monitor the -- we have a policy where 50% of the cash flow is for investments in our future growth, and the other half is for shareholder returns. And so we have the dividends and then we have been using cash flows above that to get to the 50% to stock. So we monitor it quarterly and look at our -- to make sure that we're being consistent with the overall distribution policy. But you're right, we're going to be generating a lot in the current market environment and with our growth coming, very significant rise in cash flows. So that will, by the policy mean we have more cash to distribute while at the same time, investing in growth. We do not have -- for the $4.5 billion, we do not have anything in '27 at this point.

Operator

And I'll now turn the call over to management for any closing remarks.

Kathleen Quirk

Well, thank you all for participating. Lots of good questions. I'd just ask Richard if he wants to make any observations, comments or closing remarks.

Richard Adkerson

Thanks, Kathleen. You can tell everyone that our management team, our Board is very excited about Freeport's outlook and what we have available to us going forward. We appreciate your attention and your support. And if you have any follow-up questions, let us know. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude our call for today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.