キンセール・キャピタル（KNSL）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：保険料減少も利益率を維持

主要なポイント

• キンセール・キャピタル・グループ（KNSL）が発表した希薄化後営業EPSは前年同期比9.4%増の5.70ドルとなった一方、希薄化後GAAP EPSは主に投資ポートフォリオの再編に伴う実現損により28.4%減少しました。
• 元受保険料は4.8%減少、正味保険料は1.5%減少しました。商業用不動産を除く元受保険料は、激しい競争により大口顧客の取引量が減少したため、0.5%減となりました。
• コンバインド・レシオは前年同期の74.9%に対し75.4%となりました。損害率は50ベースポイント改善して53.4%となった一方、事業費率は100ベースポイント上昇して22.0%となりました。
• 新規事業の引き受け打診件数は6%増加しました。商業用不動産を除くと打診件数は10%増加し、キンセールの部門の半数以上で2桁の打診件数増加を記録しました。
• 純投資収益は17.5%増の5,830万ドルとなりました。保険フロートは2025年末時点の31億ドルから35億ドルに拡大しました。
• キンセールは当四半期中に1億ドルで26万9,000株の自社株買いを実施しました。経営陣は、機動的な買戻し活動を前提としつつ、既存の授権枠の残りの期間において四半期あたり約1億ドルが適切な実施ペース（ランレート）であると述べました。

主要財務データ

キンセールは利回り2%未満の債券約1億3,000万ドル分を売却し、利回り5.5%超の債券に買い替えました。経営陣はこれにより年間で約550万ドルから600万ドルの純投資収益の改善が見込まれると推計しています。債券売却により税引前利益は3,760万ドル（希薄化後1株あたり1.67ドル）減少しましたが、1株あたり純資産価値（BPS）には影響ありませんでした。

事業および営業業績

商業用不動産が引き続き最大の圧迫要因となりました。全社的な引き受け打診、見積り、成約注文が1桁台半ばのペースで増加したものの、大型および階層化された不動産案件における競争激化により受託保険料が減少しました。

キンセールのポートフォリオ構成は、より小規模なリスクへとシフトしました。経営陣によると、保険料10万ドル以上の証券は全証券数の約0.7%にとどまるものの、全体保険料の約12%を占めています。大口顧客案件では、小規模顧客案件と比較して新規事業の成約率（ヒットレート）が低下し、更新継続率も弱含んでいます。

農業関連・商用車、エンターテインメント、海上保険、環境関連など、複数の保険引受部門が2桁成長を達成しました。また経営陣は、超過賠償責任保険（Excess Casualty）、医療関連（Allied Health）、製造物賠償責任、ヘルスケア、エネルギー、農業不動産などで良好な市況が見られると言及しました。

キンセールの総合的な料率トレンドは、前四半期（2026年第2四半期）の5.9%下落に対し3.1%下落となったAmwins価格指数とおおむね一致しました。商業用不動産は引き続き大幅な料率低下圧力に直面したものの、商用車、超過賠償責任保険、エンターテインメントでは値上げの機会が得られました。

チャネル開拓と商品拡充が打診件数の増加を支えました。キンセールは当四半期中に新たに12社のホールセール・ブローカーを指定し、アスペラは124社のリテール・ブローカーを追加しました。同社は年内に小規模パッケージ保険やデジタルヘルス、船舶・P&I（船主責任）商品など、さらに5〜6商品の投入を計画しています。

経営陣は、キンセールの独自技術、17年間にわたる統一データベース、アナリティクスモデルが、より迅速な引受査定、緻密なリスク値付け、低い運営コストを実現していると強調しました。同社は引受査定、分析、保険金請求処理、打診処理、ソフトウェア開発の全般にわたり、100以上のAIエージェントおよびスキルを活用しています。

経営見通し

経営陣はすべての商品ラインにおいて、引き続き20%以上の自己資本利益率（ROE）を目指しています。料率決定にあたっては、限度額、免責金額、地域、補償条件、期待損害コストを総合的に考慮しています。

同社は近年の自然災害（カタストロフィ）の発生による業績への影響は軽微であると見込んでいます。また経営陣は、競争環境には引き続き不透明感が残るものの、商業用不動産における保険料の減少幅は和らぐ可能性があると述べました。

キンセールは、テクノロジーと自動化により、中長期的に基礎的な事業費率が低下すると見込んでいます。短期的には大口顧客からのシフトが保険料成長の重荷となり得るものの、経営陣はこの調整がいずれ一巡するとみており、具体的な時期は提示しないものの、近い将来に緩やかな成長軌道へ復帰することを目指しています。

資本配分については、保険事業の成長を最優先とし、次いで自社株買いと控えめな配当を行う方針を維持します。なお経営陣は、M&A（企業の合併・買収）には関心がないと述べました。

リスクと注目点

• 商業用不動産および一部のロングテール（保険金支払までに期間を要する）損害保険ラインにおける激しい競争が、料率や大口顧客の保険料規模を圧迫しています。
• 経営陣は、特に不動産分野および大型損害保険取引において、オルタナティブ・キャピタル、MGA（総代理店）、認可保険会社（アッドミテッド・キャリア）が主な競合相手となっていると指摘しました。
• 一部の部門では損害コストのトレンドが料率改定をわずかに上回って推移していますが、経営陣は既存の利益率がクッションの役割を果たしていると述べています。
• ロングテール損害保険の準備金は、保険金請求の不確実性、インフレ、および米国における不法行為（トート）環境の変化に引き続き晒されています。キンセールはこれらのラインにおいて保守的な積立姿勢を継続しています。
• 再保険保有比率の高揚は引受利益率と投資可能な保険フロートを増大させる一方で、再保険手数料（出資手数料）の減少をもたらし、計上される事業費率を押し上げる要因となります。
• 個人向け保険は、ルイジアナ州への集中リスク削減や、カリフォルニア州およびフロリダ州における住宅所有者保険の競争激化により、引き続き圧迫を受けています。

アナリストQ&Aの要点

経営陣は、小規模顧客案件へのシフトが事業費率に重大な悪影響を与えることはないと述べました。平均保険料の低下はわずかにとどまっており、打診件数の増加と自動化によって保険料成長の鈍化による影響はほぼ相殺されています。

準備金の変動（リザーブ・デベロップメント）について経営陣は、前年度の好意的な結果は損害発生から支払いまでの期間が短い不動産などのショートテールラインに偏っており、これらは損害予測が比較的容易であると説明しました。キンセールはロングテール事業からの準備金取り崩しに関しては、引き続き慎重な姿勢を維持しています。

損害保険の料率設定に関し、経営陣は一部の部門で損害コストの上昇が料率変更を上回っていることを認めました。しかし同社は、20%以上のROEを創出できると確信する契約のみを引き受ける方針を徹底しています。

経営陣は、投資利回りの向上によって短期的な目標損害率が変更されることはないと述べました。高水準の利回りが長期にわたって持続した場合には、最終的に料率設定へ影響を与える可能性があるとしています。

競合他社の動向について経営陣は、ライバル社が大口顧客の更新においてキンセールの満期保険料を大幅に下回る価格を提示した事例を挙げました。同社は、収益性の要件を満たさない価格設定の案件については追求しないと述べました。

決算電話会議文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2026 Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2025 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its third quarter results.

Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com.

I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's Chairman, President and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

Michael Kehoe

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by Bryan Petrucelli, our Chief Financial Officer; Stuart Winston, our Chief Underwriting Officer; Tomanlibai, our Chief Analytics and Technology Officer; and Chris Tangard, our Chief Accounting Officer. Before we get into the quarterly results, I want to acknowledge and congratulate our colleague, Bryan Petrucelli on his just announced retirement next year and his election to the Kinsale Board of Directors. Bryan has made significant contributions to Kinsale in a variety of roles, but especially as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for the last decade or so.

Bryan is not only a financial expert and a sound business manager, but he has great judgment and integrity and most importantly, he's a quality human being. We will miss having him on the day-to-day team next year, but know that he will make a great addition to our Board, and we are grateful that he will continue contributing to Kinsale in that capacity. I also want to congratulate Chris Tangard, who will become Kinsale's CFO in March of 2027. Chris joined the company from KPMG 7 years ago. He's taken -- he has taken on a number of finance roles over the years, including his promotion to Chief Accounting Officer 2 years ago.

As CFO, Chris will continue to build on our current success and investors will have lots of opportunity to get to know him in the months ahead. In the third quarter 2026, Kinsale's diluted operating earnings per share increased 9.4% over the third quarter of '25, generating an annualized operating ROE of 25.6% through 9 months. Gross written premium was down 4.8% and net written premium was down 1.5%. Kinsale's combined ratio was 75.4% for the quarter. E&S market conditions in the third quarter continued to be competitive and largely consistent with conditions in the second quarter. The level of competition and our growth rate continues to vary from one market segment to another, as you can see from the premium by underwriting division exhibit in our Q. And I'm sorry, we've got a fire alarm going off in the building adjacent to ours. We're going to keep persevering here.

The continued intense competition in our commercial property division weighed on our growth rate in the quarter. And excluding that one division, our gross written premium was down 0.5%. It's also important to note that even with the drop in gross written premium for the quarter, can sales number of submissions, quotes and bind orders grew in the mid-single-digit range. Essentially, with the competition in the E&S market, our book shifted slightly from larger to smaller accounts. Not only is this shift positive for maintaining best-in-class margins, but it also shows that the Kinsale model works and works well even in the most competitive market we've seen in the last 10 years.

Our disciplined underwriting and low-cost business model recognizes the importance of the insurance buyer in every transaction we deliver competitively priced insurance without compromising our margins and we continue to grow the business and take market share, subject only to a temporary written premium growth slowdown as we shift slightly away from larger transactions and write a slightly smaller average premium.

While Kinsale always prioritizes profit over growth, we are still working very hard to grow the business. The various growth initiatives involve new and enhanced products, appointing new brokers, a robust marketing effort and improved customer service. Stuart Winston will have some commentary on these topics here in a moment.

In this era of artificial intelligence, Kinsale's long-standing strategy of making technology a core competency is allowing us to widen our lead over many competitors. Kinsale's core enterprise system is custom-built for our business by our own engineers, analysts and developers. We don't have any legacy software applications dating back decades ago. We also have all the company data from the first policy we wrote for the first claim we received 17 years ago, recorded in the same database.

Kinsale's tech advantage allows for lower costs, better customer service and more data at the transaction level to better manage the business. Further, we have built our analytics and actuarial team over the last decade to constantly evaluate our own data and data that we acquire to improve how we segment and price risk. This team of quants, combined with millions of dollars of investment and further combined with a superior tech stack, is creating underwriting and pricing algorithms superior to others in the E&S industry. And Salmaan Allibhai is going to have some further comments on this topic in a moment as well.

And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Chris Tanngard.

Unknown Executive

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone. Before I provide commentary on our quarterly results, I want to recap our capital allocation priorities and recent actions, particularly in light of the current competitive environment that Mike mentioned. Our first capital allocation priority is to fund growth in our high-margin insurance business. Our second priority is to return excess capital to stockholders, primarily through share repurchases.

We also pay a dividend that, while modest, has increased at a 17.5% compound annual growth rate since our IPO in 2016. We have no interest in M&A. Over the last several years, we've generated significant capital in excess of what we need to operate the business in the current lower growth phase of the cycle. This excess capital generation continues today. As a result, in the third quarter, we repurchased 269,000 shares at an aggregate cost of $100 million or just under 80% of net operating earnings in the quarter. The $100 million is consistent with the second quarter and an increase from the $62.5 million in the first quarter of this year. At this time, we expect $100 million to be a good quarterly run rate and plan to be opportunistic otherwise.

Our debt to total capitalization is low at approximately 10%. And should we need additional capital in the future, we would likely look to use leverage to generate higher returns on equity.

Moving on to our financial results for the quarter. Diluted earnings per share declined 28.4% and diluted operating earnings per share increased 9.4% compared to the third quarter of last year. Annualized return on equity and annualized operating return on equity for the 9 months ended September 30 were 26.6% and 25.6%, respectively. The decline in GAAP earnings was primarily driven by our sale of certain fixed maturity holdings in a loss position, largely offsetting our selling of certain equity investments in a gain position as we repositioned the investment portfolio.

With the proceeds from these sales, we reinvested approximately $100 million in higher conviction equity securities and replaced approximately $130 million of bonds yielding less than 2% with bonds yielding more than 5.5%. As the unrealized depreciation of equities is recorded through earnings each quarter, the majority of the equity gains were reflected in earnings in prior periods.

Conversely, the loss on the fixed maturity holdings was reflected in earnings upon sale.

The net pretax earnings impact of the bond sales was $37.6 million or $1.67 per diluted share in the third quarter. The sales had no impact on book value.

Stripping out the investment noise, diluted operating earnings per share improved to $5.70.

Quarterly combined ratio was 75.4% compared to 74.9% in the third quarter of 2025. The loss ratio improved to 53.4% from 53.9%, largely driven by higher favorable prior year development. The expense ratio increased 1 point to 22% from 21%, primarily due to higher net commissions resulting from higher reinsurance retentions, which results in lower ceding commissions. The higher retention is an intentional trade to retain more underwriting margin and float to generate investment income, which results in a slightly higher expense ratio. As a result of these changes to our reinsurance program, which renewed on June 1, the retention ratio increased to 86.2% in the third quarter compared to 83.3% in the third quarter last year.

The other underwriting portion of the expense ratio, which is the best measure of the operational efficiency of our business was 10.2% for the third quarter of 2026, flat compared to the same period last year.

Turning to investments. Net investment income increased 17.5% to $58.3 million as a result of both a higher invested asset base and higher interest rates. Kinsale's sales float increased to $3.5 billion at September 30, up from $3.1 billion at year-end 2025. New money yields are averaging north of 5%, and the fixed maturity portfolio has an average duration of 4.4 years.

Overall, we're pleased with our third quarter performance. We continue to produce best-in-class underwriting results, attractive investing returns and strong returns on equity while returning meaningful capital to stockholders.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Stuart.

Stuart Winston

Thanks, Chris. At the risk for sound like a broken record, the soft E&S market continued in the third quarter across property in certain long-tail casualty lines. However, there are some favorable areas in the market that we are turning into growth opportunities. Our goal is an underwriting organization and a softer softening market is to grow where we can, but more importantly, maintain our profitability. We'll continue to be aggressive where we can, but at the same time, maintain a conservative stance in areas where we feel irrational competition has taken hold. We offer our brokers one of the broadest risk appetites in the E&S market. We will continue developing new products and adding underwriting flexibility where it makes sense, further expanding that appetite.

The breadth of our underwriting appetite allows us to pivot to the areas where growth is promising and take advantage. The divisions like Agribusiness in commercial auto, entertainment, Ocean Marine and environmental, all experienced double-digit growth for the quarter. We continue to see favorable underwriting conditions in excess casualty, Allied Health, products liability, health care, energy and Agribusiness property as well.

Before I move on, I want to briefly address the most recent cat activity in the quarter, and we expect this impact on our results to be immaterial.

Moving on, overall new business submission growth increased 6% in the third quarter, a similar rate to Q2 of this year. We continue to see a decline in new business submissions in the Commercial Property division that handles a large share on layered deals. Excluding the Commercial Property division, new business submissions were up 10% for the quarter and over half of our divisions are seeing submission growth in the double digits.

While our lines of business are experiencing varying levels of competition and pricing pressure, the combined pricing trend for Kinsale is in line with the Amwins pricing index, which showed a decrease of 3.1% compared to 5.9% decrease in Q2 2026. While we continue to see strong rate pressure in commercial property, other lines like commercial auto and excess casualty and entertainment present opportunities for meaningful rate increases.

Distribution and product expansion continue to drive growth. On the product side, we're looking to finish the year by rolling out an additional 5 or 6 new offerings ranging from small package policies to a digital health offering in Holland P&I. We continue to look for opportunities in the market to roll out new offerings to broaden our appetite. We also continue to sign up new producers to drive submission growth. During the third quarter, we appointed 12 new wholesale brokers at the Kinsale platform and 124 new retail brokers to Aspera, our in-house broker through which we distribute most of our personal lines products.

The durability of our model continue to show throughout the third quarter. Despite an influx of competition, submissions, quotes and binders increased across the company, while renewal retention remains steady. New products in addition to our distribution network should continue to support growth. At the same time, large accounts remain under downward pressure. We will not chase business where the economics do not make sense. Instead, we will maintain our discipline and continue to focus on the small to medium enterprise space.

So to bring it all together, the market is soft and it may stay that way for a while. We aren't going to let the market change how we operate. We will grow where the opportunity is real. We'll hold the line where competition has outrun the risk and we will never trade profitability for volume. Soft markets don't last forever and neither do hard ones. What we can control is how we operate in each. A broad risk appetite lets us find areas for growth, our small account focus allows for more opportunities and more favorable rates and a tremendous efficiency advantage will support returns as pricing softens. That's our model in a nutshell and it's designed to perform across the whole of the market cycle.

So with that, I'll turn it over to Salmaan.

Salmaan Allibhai

Thanks, Stuart. On the analytics and actuarial side, our guiding philosophy is that we constantly want to improve how we segment and price risk. While many competitors cut rates across the board, our goal is to be more targeted and methodical. We will adjust rates where it makes sense consistent with our target of a 20% return on equity or better. Two major components of our analytics strategy are third-party data and generalized linear models. Each year, we acquire, analyze and incorporate more third-party data into our underwriting and pricing process. This augments our internal data and information provided by the brokers to improve how we segment and price risk. Because all 17 years of Kinsale data resides in one database, we can perform analyses and implement improvements quickly.

Generalized linear models are an increasingly important part of our pricing toolkit. They let us measure how various risk characteristics together drive loss at a granular level rather than relying on broad class level rates. We also use other machine learning algorithms to find patterns that feed back into those models and ultimately, our rates. Our rating engine brings this all together and produces a technical price for every risk adjusted for the coverage provided. That tells our underwriters exactly where market pricing is relative to the actuarially sound price. The results show in our loss ratios. In today's market, the analytics advantage we have is more important and more durable than ever and will allow us to maintain those low loss ratios, while competitors with less sophisticated pricing face adverse selection.

On technology, our talented engineers and developers have built our own proprietary systems. We do not have legacy software, which lets us spend our effort on innovation rather than maintenance. Those proprietary systems support the fast response times our brokers expect, power our data and analytics advantage and keep our expense ratio the lowest among our competitors by a wide margin. As we've noted in the past, AI has been adopted broadly across the company for some time now.

Every associate has an enterprise license for 2 of the leading frontier models along with their agentic tools. Across the organization, we utilized over 100 agents and skills to process submissions, improve underwriting, perform analytics, intake, claims, draft correspondents and much more. For the technology team in particular, these genic tools help our developers write and review code, which speeds up how quickly we deliver new capabilities to the business. We've made meaningful progress building AI functionality into our enterprise applications, and there is a lot more to be done.

Kinsale is well positioned for a more competitive part of the insurance cycle and for the disruption that AI will bring to our industry. Our efficiency and pricing accuracy compound over time, and we believe our lead is widening every day.

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

Michael Kehoe

Thanks, Salmaan. Operator, we're now ready for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Christian Getsoff with Wells Fargo.

質疑応答

Unknown Analyst

As we think about the mix shift towards smaller accounts and casualty, when we look at the average premium per policy ex personal lines of $11,700, if I exclude commercial property estimate, it's around $10,400, how we are you expecting that average premium per policy to trend to? And is there any meaningful impact on loss ratios from this mix shift towards smaller accounts?

Stuart Winston

Yes. Christian, this is Stuart. I think the average premium is closer to -- ex CP was closer to $10,700 or in $10,900 year-to-date through Q2, $10,700 through Q3. It's probably going to remain pretty steady, but we'll trend maybe slightly downward as competition picks up, but it's not a drop off a steep lift.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. And then your LAE ratios, if I look at statins continue to improve meaningfully, I calculate about 200 bps improvement in the first half, which is offsetting a lot of the pressure on the incurred loss ratio side. if you kind of think about pricing pressure and mix shift towards casualty, can you frame how you're thinking about that LEE improvement from here? Is this 200 bps of good pokey as we kind of think about 2027?

Stuart Winston

I don't know that we're -- have that level of detail to jump into in the call. I would think it's going to be pretty consistent. I'm not sure what's driving the delta there. Our reinsurance retentions wouldn't impact that.

Michael Kehoe

Yes. I wouldn't read too much into the change. Some of that is assumption changes when we're setting IBNR. I wouldn't read too much into that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.

The next question will be from Andrew Kligerman with TD Cohen.

Andrew Kligerman

So I'm curious, with casualty written premium up about 0.9%, I'm curious as to what rates did with respect to that point, what proportion was rates, how much were rates up actually? And did pricing keep up with loss cost?

Salmaan Allibhai

Andrew, this is Salmaan. I would say pricing varies across the divisions. But in general, right, I think Stuart noted, the pricing trends are kind of in line with the Amwins index. I think loss cost trends are in some divisions running slightly ahead of where rates are. But for us, we think that's okay just given the margins that we're generating.

Andrew Kligerman

Perfect. Okay. And then on the prior year development of 4.5%, could you kind of give us the geography of of accident years and products that went into that $4.5 million?

Salmaan Allibhai

We probably won't get too much into the detail by accident year, but I can tell you that a lot of the prior year favorable development was disproportionately the shorter tail lines of business. So I think the property lines of business and some of the shorter claims made lines of business.

Michael Kehoe

And Andrew, we've kind of been maintaining that methodology, I think, for a couple of years now, allowing the short tail results to flow out to the bottom line where there's more predictability and being a little bit more cautious holding back the reserve development on the longer tail business.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

Pablo Singzon

How much net investment pickup you expect from the fixed income assets you repositioned this quarter?

Unknown Executive

Pablo, this is Chris. We the delta on the bonds we sold and the bonds we purchased was just shy of 400 basis points, and the proceeds we reinvested were about $130 million. So you can do the math on it, probably $5.5 million, $6 million annually.

Pablo Singzon

Yes. And then a second question. As you adapted a more competitive market, are you still able to price at your historical expected margins in the business you choose to, right? And how does investment income figure how you price and accept our turnover business?

Michael Kehoe

Yes. Pablo, this is Mike. We manage really all of our product lines to a 20% return or greater. And as the actuaries work through our pricing models, they effectively translate the ROE into a loss ratio target for the division managers. That's how it's more or less handled internally. But yes, 20% ROE or greater. So all the business we're putting on the books is business that we think is producing really compelling margins.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer.

Michael Phillips

With the shift towards the smaller accounts, can you talk -- you already talked about the impact on the loss ratio. Can you talk about the, I guess, the puts and takes that happen on the expense ratio from that shift?

Michael Kehoe

Yes Michael, this is Mike. I don't any real impact on the expense ratio. I think if you look at the average premium, it's down, I don't know, a couple of hundred dollars over the last year or something. I mean it's it's more or less steady. The reason we've kind of highlighted the decline kind of addresses a little bit around this idea that, hey, the written premium is down. And we're trying to just emphasize the fact that, yes, the written premium is off a little bit, mostly because we've seen an attrition in some of the larger business we write, whereas the submission count is growing, the number of quotes, the number of bind orders, it's all up kind of mid-single digits for the quarter, which to us kind of communicates the fact that our business model, even in a very competitive market is continuing to work quite well.

Michael Phillips

Okay, Mike. And maybe just the second question is still on the expense ratio. I was trying to think about the benefits of productivity gains from tech versus slower top line growth and maybe just how to weigh those 2 and what that could mean in the near term for the expense ratio.

Michael Kehoe

Yes. I think I would say the rollout -- the steady rollout of more and more automation in our business, not just in underwriting, but in claims in our policy services area really across the company, has a positive impact. You could say, well, the decline in premium for the quarter probably had a modest negative impact. I think they largely offset. I think Chris indicated our other underwriting expense component of the expense ratio was steady at 10.2%. But I would just tell you, from a higher level, that low expense ratio that Kinsale has is a fundamental part of our business strategy. And we expect that to drift downward over time, not up, mostly because of technology.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Anderson with Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen

Congrats to Brian on retirement and Chris for the new role here. As we think about the business mix, should commercial property contraction moderate in 2027? Or do you find the current pricing and submission trends pointing to perhaps another year of double-digit declines in premium volume there?

Stuart Winston

Andrew, it's Stuart. We're always hopeful that it will moderate. There are some signs that the reductions are easing, but it's day by day, but we are hopeful that it will moderate.

Andrew Andersen

Okay. And across the whole business with property and casualty here, when you talk about competition, are you seeing this more from admitted carriers pulling more business back from E&S? Is it competition within -- from existing E&S carriers and MGAs? And perhaps how far along are we in that shift if it is the admitted market being more of the competitive dynamic here?

Stuart Winston

I think the admitted market is more prevalent in the property space with the MGAs. MGAs and admitted in the property space. And on the casualty side, long-tail lines, it's the front and the MGAs on larger deals that are driving accounts that should be $500,000 or going for $150,000. It's just not worth competing on that business. And it's been going on for a couple of years. We'll see how long it has until it bears fruit.

Andrew Andersen

And maybe last one. I think I heard $100 million quarterly run rate. Was that just for the -- for buybacks? Was that just for the remainder of the year? Or are you contemplating that into '27 as well?

Stuart Winston

That was intended to be for the remainder of our repurchase authorization.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

Mark Hughes

Yes. I'll just congratulations to Brian and Chris. I'll follow that up to the $100 million once you exhaust this authorization, presumably you'll have another is $100 million beyond that, a good run rate?

Michael Kehoe

Well, Mark, this is Mike. We haven't -- we'll make that decision when we get down the road a little bit. But essentially, our capital allocation strategy should be pretty obvious at this point. Growth is our biggest priority. If we can't grow the business near term as rapidly as we want, it's buybacks and then the small dividend is how we're thinking about capital allocation.

Mark Hughes

Okay. When we think about current accident year, I think you might have touched on this, but the moving parts of decline in property, which I think has been more profitable, correct me if I'm wrong, would seem to be a headwind for accident year losses, but then the mix shift maybe into smaller accounts and better underwriting would be helpful. How should we think about that accident year loss number? Is it more likely to go higher than lower? How should we think about it?

Michael Kehoe

Mark, we don't -- we probably can't give you forward guidance on the accident, your loss ratio. But I might -- I would say looking at it simply casualty versus property, that may not be the best way to look at it, right, even within casualty, there are varying lines of business with differing loss ratios. I would say, across the board, our losses are coming in below expected. But the ultimate takeaway for us is that the business continues to generate really attractive underwriting margins again in the property space and the casualty space.

And that we continue to reserve cautiously and conservatively so that investors have a lot of confidence in the strength of our balance sheet and in the integrity of our results.

Unknown Analyst

If I might ask one more. The submissions up mid-single digits. It sounds like your retention is pretty good. I'm just sort of curious, is that reflective of perhaps a more shopping behavior? Or are you still seeing a mix shift out of admitted into E&S?

Stuart Winston

Mark, it's Stuart. I think there is a little more shopping, but it's also -- hey, we have a lot of new products that we rolled out this year. We have a lot of new distribution partners that we're working with. So that all comes into play. So it's a little bit of everything. Stuff we've done internally and stuff happening in the market.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.

Jian Huang

I understand that you don't have tech legacy infrastructure data is modern. And you talked about with AI, your tech edge is widening versus your peers. That said, right, a lot of traditional carriers or maybe even a lot of the newer carriers are showcasing more complex capabilities. And so for example, right, like a sub 24 hours underwriting quote and bind is much more common these days. Can you maybe help us think about how you're thinking about AI as a resetting mechanism for technology and competition, where you feel you have the widening tech lead over others. Like just curious if you can give us some examples as well is that possible?

Michael Kehoe

I'm going to let -- Salmaan you start.

Salmaan Allibhai

Yes. Again, I alluded to some of these comments, right? We're definitely able to -- our underwriters are definitely able to quote more quickly, but also handle more volume, right? Our policy operations folks are able to process transactions more quickly. The claims examiners are more efficient, right? They're able to draft correspondents more quickly.

On the IT side, we're able to deliver new features and functionality to the business more quickly. the ability to do analytics is enhanced, right, turning unstructured data into structured data. So I think there there are efficiencies and productivity gains across the board. And again, we feel like we're at the forefront of that.

Michael Kehoe

Yes. And Bob, this is Mike. I'm not sure we're well positioned to do the compare and contrast. I would just say, our experience over 17 years is that Kinsale kind of is at the lead in terms of the customer service we deliver to our brokers -- the quote ratios are, I guess, on new business, run about 75% of our submissions turn into quotes. And most of those quotes go out in a day or 2. And then when you combine that with a tremendous underwriting flexibility, in terms of risk appetite, I think our model is a little bit unique, although highly competitive market and we've got 100 competitors.

So -- and then on the tech specifically, I think that's a direct line through to the expense ratio. We finished the quarter at 22% GAAP expense ratio. I don't know how many of our competitors are at that same level. But if they're really achieving all that we're achieving in terms of technology, I suspect they ought to be in a similar neighborhood.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Cantor.

Ryan Tunis

Congrats to Brian and Chris. First of all, on the mix shift, 2 parts to this one. First of all, is there a broader point being made going from large account to small, could be a contributing factor growth deceleration? And then second of all, could you just give us some idea of what percentage of your overall business is large account today versus maybe where it was 5 years ago?

Michael Kehoe

Ryan, this is Mike. I can't do the 5-year comparison. The last time I looked, it was about a month ago. And I think 0.7% of our policies were $100,000 premium and up, but that represented about 12% of the overall premium. And then -- I forgot what your first question was, like how the mix shift is impacting growth.

Ryan Tunis

Yes, it's 12% of total premium, I'm guessing...

Michael Kehoe

Yes. But we're just seeing more competition on that end of our accounts. we see a lower hit ratio on new business quotes. We see a lower renewal retention than we do on the smaller accounts. And so we had something last week. It was $120,000 renewal. Somebody wrote it for $30,000. So it's -- there's some wild behavior out there. Obviously, we're not going to chase that down. But you got to write a handful -- you got to write $10,000 -- $12,000 policy to offset the $120,000. So we're doing that. That's why we kind of highlighted those production statistics. The submissions are growing, the quotes are growing, the bind orders are growing. It's just that we've got a temporary drop-off in the written premium. That will correct near term on its own.

Ryan Tunis

Got it. And then my follow-up is just on the underlying loss ratio. And historically, there's been that seasonality where it tends to go lower in the back half of the year. We didn't see that this quarter. I'm just curious if there's any color around that.

Unknown Executive

Yes, there's nothing unusual. Again, the loss ratio is comprised of a variety of lines of business and underwriting divisions. I think that seasonality, generally speaking, does still exist. But yes, I think in general, it does still exist.

Operator

Your next question comes from Rowland Mayor with RBC Capital Markets.

Rowland Mayor

Congrats, Bryan, on the planned retirement and, Chris, on the promotion. I wanted to start on just the yield pickup. Does that change your targeted loss ratio as you seek the 20% ROE?

Bryan Petrucelli

Not near term, no. Maybe if it persisted well into the future, at some point, it probably would impact pricing a little bit.

Rowland Mayor

Okay. That's great. And Mike, I appreciate your comment on the reserve conservatism in long-tail lines. Does that feed into pricing decisions? And is that like weighing on growth a little bit here?

Michael Kehoe

Big time. big time, it's weighing on growth because we've got some competitors that are very aggressive. We've got some disciplined competitors, too, but there are some out there that are very aggressive in how they price risk.

Rowland Mayor

And the reserves in those long tail lines have been pretty stable for a couple of years now. What do you need to see to kind of unwind that conservatism on that?

Michael Kehoe

Well, that's -- we've got a dozen lines of business. We're in our, I think, 17th exiting year every quarter. We're looking at actual claim activity, new claims coming in, old claims being negotiated and settled. And then we're comparing that activity against our actuarial assumptions and making adjustments. But I mean, ultimately, I think Salmaan laid out the goals. We want to be very conservative in our loss picks, especially on the longer tail business.

The Torch system in the U.S. can be a little bit unpredictable at times. Long tail business is a little more exposed to inflation, changes in inflation rates. And we just have always felt that, that's important is to be prepared for a little bit of that unpredictability with conservative reserves.

Rowland Mayor

And then if I could just squeeze one more. I know it's small, but the personal insurance business has been shrinking a lot. Anything going on there to call out?

Stuart Winston

Rowland, it's Stuart. Yes, we did some adjustment in our concentration in Louisiana, which was a driver of growth and for that -- for the PI division. And there's increased competition in California and Florida for homeowners. It's -- we see there's some bright spots coming with the Fair plan in California change in rates, doing a large rate increase. I think at the end of this month or start of November, so hopefully, there's a little pickup there. But it's just -- there's heavy competition in the space.

Michael Kehoe

But we're also really leaning into it. I think Stuart mentioned earlier, we're appointing a lot of new brokers. So we're kind of ramping up the distribution and the marketing in that effort, and we're working on some system enhancements. So more to come on the personal lines. That's -- it's obviously a tiny part of our business. But longer term, we think it's going to be more material to our growth prospects.

Rowland Mayor

That's glad the fire alarm stops.

Michael Kehoe

Yes.

Operator

You next question comes from Mike Zaremski with BMO.

Michael Zaremski

Sorry about that earlier. I'm not sure what happened. Maybe a couple of questions on the casualty side of the business. Are you all seeing any changes in the slope of lawsuit inflation? We've heard one prominent E&S carrier talk about seeing an improvement in the slope of casualty toward inflation.

Salmaan Allibhai

Mike, this is Salmaan. I don't think we're seeing anything in particular. I don't think we have enough evidence to comment either way.

Michael Zaremski

Okay. Got it. And sticking to casualty, feel free to bring property into, but their core business is casualty. So we're seeing commission rates for a lot of the E&S carriers that drift higher. That's the total commission rate they're paying to brokers. I'm not sure about the split to the wholesale broker versus the retail broker. But would you say that trend is one of the components that's kind of causing Kinsale's win ratio to be a bit lower?

Michael Kehoe

Mike, this is Mike. No, our hit ratio on new business quotes is steady, consistent with last year. Our renewal retention is the same as it was last year. the number of submissions is growing even in this competitive market, the number of quotes, the number of bind orders. Look, I'll acknowledge when rates decline, it does create a little bit of a headwind for everybody in the business, the retail broker, the wholesale broker, the insurance carrier, the reinsurers. And so yes, there's a natural tension where the retailers, I think, this is well known are negotiating for a larger percentage of the gross commission when they're negotiating with the wholesalers.

I think the wholesalers are looking for insurance companies to pay more higher gross commission. The insurance buyer once lower costs, right, the business owners that we serve, they want to pay less for insurance, not more. So look, it's an inevitable tension in the business. It's it's been this way forever. It's probably exacerbated in a more competitive period of the cycle, for sure, but it's not new. And yes, we acknowledge we probably lose business routinely because of the commission, but we also get business routinely because we're the low-cost leader in an industry where you're selling a commodity-like product. I promise the customers want low-cost insurance.

And so we manage our own costs aggressively. I think we pay reasonable commissions. They're slightly lower than our competitors, but we also offer our brokers the best customer service in the industry. There's nobody close to what Kinsale is doing. We offer the broadest risk appetite. If you've got a hard to place E&S account, I think we're a go-to market, and we can be incredibly competitive on pricing, not just because of low cost but because of superior analytics and a better understanding of how to price risk.

So I think we're -- we like our model, but we acknowledge kind of the headwind you're noting.

Michael Zaremski

That's helpful. And maybe just lastly, sticking with the competitive conditions and in casualty specifically. And I guess we get asked a decent amount about interest rate tailwinds, especially in the last few months, great for Kinsale but also great for your competitors. I mean is it fair to assume that the kind of current levels of competition in casualty will remain the trend in terms of kind of a less growth will persist given just the -- how influential interest rates are on the overall ROE for the industry?

Michael Kehoe

Yes. I would look beyond interest rates. I think it's really the flood of alternative capital that's come into the business over the last 5 or 10 years is driving a much higher level of competition. But the reason we belabored this issue around submissions, quotes and bind orders growing. It just gives hopefully a better understanding of the premium decline. The premium decline is principally driven by a little bit of a mix shift away from larger towards smaller accounts. I think that will run its course relatively quickly. And I think we'll be back to a modest growth, hopefully, in the near term. I can't give you a date, but I think we're just going through a little bit of an adjustment as we lose some bigger deals, like the example I gave a few minutes ago, $120,000 renewal, somebody writes that for $30,000, right? That sounds kind of foolish. But that's the market we're competing in today. And so I think that's where we are.

Michael Zaremski

Got it. So on that point, and sorry to take up too much time, but on the 0.7 of policies being 12%-ish of premiums -- sorry, I had assumed, I think many people might have assumed that was mostly a property comment. So I don't know if you have the data on just that -- it sounds like you're saying that there's also some large account in casualty. Is that correct, Mike?

Michael Kehoe

Yes. We definitely write large accounts in casualty, too. I think it's been disproportionately property for sure, especially in that commercial property division, where we wrote a lot of 6-figure deals.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

Pablo Singzon

So my question is about the, I guess, the richness of the curveage you're providing, right? Has that changed versus maybe 3 or 4 years ago? And if you're holding the line there, how is competition acting? And I guess it's easier to see pricing trends on the outside, but I'm just wondering if you think about limits, exclusions, et cetera, how are you positioned versus everyone else in the market today?

Michael Kehoe

Well, we can't speak to everybody else. We just manage our own book to the 20% ROE or greater. And it absolutely takes into account limits, deductible, state territory coverage, et cetera. We've got a very quantitative approach to how we manage pricing. And again, we've got some disciplined competitors for sure, but we've got some that wouldn't sit in that category.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. We have reached the end of our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Kehoe for the closing remarks.

Michael Kehoe

All right. Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking again here in a couple of months. Have a great day.

Operator

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This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.