ファースト・マーチャンツ（FRME）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：マージン拡大、与信見通し明確化

主要ポイント

• ファースト・マーチャンツ・コーポレーションが発表した2026年第3四半期決算は、純利益が6,780万ドル、希薄化後1株当たり利益（EPS）が1.09ドルとなりました。調整後EPSは1.10ドルで、報告ベースのEPSは前年同期比11%増加しました。
• 純金利マージン（NIM）は前四半期比で6ベーシスポイント（bp）、前年同期比で20bp拡大して3.44%となり、過去2年以上の最高水準に達しました。完全課税等価ベースの純金利収入は前年同期比で20%増加しました。
• 当四半期の預金は年率換算で4.2%増加した一方、貸出金は年率換算で1.8%増と緩やかな伸びにとどまりました。経営陣は、第4四半期の貸出増加率が1桁台半ばに回復すると予想しています。
• 貸倒損失（純償却額）は合計2,940万ドルとなり、主に以前から特定されていた2件の事業性融資を反映したものです。関連する損失見込額は前期までに引き当てられていたため、貸倒引当金繰入費用は330万ドルにとどまりました。
• 経営陣は、資産のリプライシングによる恩恵が、発行額1億ドルの後順位債に伴う四半期フルでの支払利息によって一部相殺されるものの、第4四半期の純金利マージンは安定的に推移すると予想しています。
• 最高経営責任者（CEO）のマーク・ハードウィック氏は年末に退任し、マイケル・スチュアート社長が後任に就任する予定です。スチュアート氏は、同社が2027年に向けた戦略計画を策定する中で、事業の継続性を強調しました。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

貸出金の伸びは建設ローンおよび住宅ローンが牽引しました。地域・法人銀行業務、動産担保融資（ABL）、投資用不動産での新規案件が、スポンサー・ファイナンスおよび協調融資（Shared National Credit）ポートフォリオにおける返済や選択的な撤退を十分相殺できなかったため、事業性融資の残高は概ね横ばいとなりました。

協調融資（Shared National Credit）のエクスポージャーは、前四半期の約11億ドルから、借入人88件で9億3,600万ドルへと減少しました。経営陣は、この減少が通常のポートフォリオ管理活動と、価格設定、クロスセル、収益性、リスクに基づく案件レベルでの判断の両方を反映したものであると説明しました。

当四半期の預金は1億7,560万ドル増加しました。リテール部門とプライベート・ウェルス部門がこの伸びを牽引した一方、無利息預金は総預金の22%を占めました。競争的な価格設定を背景に、預金支払利息率は9ベーシスポイント上昇して2.16%となりました。

貸出金ポートフォリオの利回りは前四半期比で12ベーシスポイント上昇し、6.23%となりました。新規および更新された貸出金の平均実行利回りは6.34%となり、前四半期の6.28%から上昇しました。有価証券投資ポートフォリオは31億ドルに減少しており、経営陣は今後12か月間に見込まれる2億7,140万ドルのキャッシュフローを、より高利回りの貸出増加に充てる計画です。

顧客関連手数料は合計3,430万ドルとなりました。役務手数料、資産管理手数料、カード決済手数料の増加が、貸出金売却益の緩やかな減少を相殺しました。また、経営陣は新たなSBA（中小企業庁保証ローン）および第1抵当権付HELOCの取り組みによる貢献も挙げました。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

• 貸出金の伸び： 経営陣は、安定した事業性融資の案件パイプラインと、返済や意図的な与信撤退の減少が見込まれることから、第4四半期の伸びが1桁台半ばになると予想しています。
• 純金利マージン： 第4四半期のマージンは安定的推移が見込まれています。過去の実績では25ベーシスポイントの利上げごとにマージンが1〜2ベーシスポイント押し上げられていますが、9月の利上げによる効果は後順位債のコストによって一部相殺されます。
• 与信費用： 2026年通期の貸倒損失（純償却額）は38〜40ベーシスポイント程度になると見込まれます。経営陣は、足元の問題債権処理が落ち着けば、20〜25ベーシスポイントがより正常化された償却水準になるとみています。
• 引当金カバー率： 大口債権の処理完了が見込まれた後、経営陣は引当金カバー率が1.30%台前半から半ばで推移すると予想しており、今後の引当金繰入は主に貸出金の伸びと正常化された償却額に連動する見通しです。
• 事業経費： 第3四半期の費用水準は第4四半期のランレート（年率換算ベース）として妥当な水準です。経営陣は、マーケティング、テクノロジー、および厳選された人材への継続的な投資を含め、2027年の費用がそのベースから3%〜5%増加すると予想しています。
• 手数料収入： 第4四半期の手数料収入は、住宅ローン関連利益の減少が見込まれるものの、第3四半期と概ね同水準を維持する見通しです。顧客関連の手数料部門は、2027年に8%〜10%成長すると見込まれています。
• 税率： 経営陣は、第4四半期および2027年のモデリング用として、実効税率14%を推奨しました。
• 株主還元： 同社は、後順位債の発行に一部支えられ、第4四半期および場合によっては第1四半期に自社株買いを高水準で実施すると見込んでいます。

リスクと注目点

ファースト・マーチャンツが把握している一部の問題与信の処理を進める中で、与信関連の動きは引き続き活発です。新たに報告された2件の無利息化債権— 1,840万ドルの自動車部品ディストリビューターおよび430万ドルのデジタルマーケティング会社 — については、すでに前四半期までに個別引当金が計上されています。経営陣は両件とも第4四半期中に解決すると見込んでおり、現時点で大幅な追加個別引当金の必要性は想定していません。

要管理債権および分類債権は緩やかに増加したものの、経営陣はこの動きについて、単一の大口エクスポージャーや広範な悪化によるものではなく、通常のポートフォリオ移行によるものと説明しています。金利上昇は投資用不動産ポートフォリオの一部に影響を与えているものの、より広範な信用上の懸念にはつながっていないとしています。

住宅ローン金利が7%を超えたことで、個人向け住宅ローンのパイプラインは軟化しました。借入コストの上昇に伴い、一部の商業用不動産プロジェクト、設備投資、買収案件の見直しも進んでいます。さらに経営陣は、事業判断に影響を与える要因として関税の不確実性も挙げました。

預金コストも引き続き考慮すべき点です。第3四半期中に平均支払金利が上昇した一方、経営陣は自律的な預金獲得を支援するため、マーケティングおよびブランディング関連支出を増額しています。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

アナリストからは、貸倒償却および引当金計上のタイミングに強い関心が寄せられました。経営陣は、新たに発生した無利息化債権2件の全額が償却されるわけではないことを説明しました。すでに個別引当金が設定されているため、第4四半期に見込まれる貸倒償却によって同等の新たな引当金繰入費用が発生することはないとしています。

貸出需要について、経営陣は中核となる商業・産業（C&I）向け融資および動産担保融資（ABL）を最も有望な領域として挙げました。事業性融資のパイプラインは前四半期比でやや増加し、前年同期比では横ばいとなった一方、個人向け住宅ローンは金利上昇の影響を最も明確に受けた減速分野となりました。

収益性について、経営陣は第4四半期に貸出金利回りと利息収入が上昇すると予想しています。平均金利4.90%の固定金利貸出金約3億5,000万ドルが今後12か月間にリプライシングされる予定であり、これが資産利回りのさらなる追い風となります。

経営陣の事業承継（サクセッション）に関して、マイケル・スチュアート氏は業務の継続性を維持することが最優先事項であると述べました。また同社は、1株当たり利益（EPS）および1株当たり有形純資産の成長を支援することを目的とした戦略的計画プロセスの一環として、リソース配分やバランスシートの機会の検討も進めています。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Merchants Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, management would like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements with respect to the future performance and financial condition of First Merchants Corporation, that involve risks and uncertainties. Further information is contained within the press release, which we encourage you to review.

Additionally, management may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are intended to supplement but not substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The press release available on the website contains financial and other quantitative information to be discussed on today's call as well as a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Mark Hardwick, CEO. Mr. Hardwick, you may begin.

Mark Hardwick

Good morning, and welcome to First Merchants third quarter 2026 conference call. Thanks for the introduction and for covering the forward-looking statement on Page 2. We released our earnings yesterday after markets closed, and today's presentation materials are available via the link on Page 3 of the earnings release.

Turning to Slide 3, you will see today's presenters and members of the executive management team. Joining me on today's call are Mike Stewart, our President; John Martin, our Chief Credit Officer; and Michele Kawiecki, our Chief Financial Officer.

Slide 4 highlights our footprint and financial scale. We operate 126 banking centers across Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. Total assets stand at $21.1 billion with $15.6 billion in loans, $16.9 billion in deposits and $7.1 billion in assets under advisement.

Turning to Slide 5. Third quarter net income totaled $67.8 million or $1.09 per diluted share. Earnings per share are up 11% from the third quarter of last year and up nearly 30% from the third quarter of 2024. Excluding a small amount of remaining acquisition-related expenses, adjusted earnings per share for the quarter totaled $1.10. Last quarter, we said that we believe that the key factors were in place for improved performance in the second half of the year. The third quarter delivered on that belief.

Net interest margin expanded 6 basis points to 3.44%, our highest margin in more than 2 years and 20 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2025. Fully taxable equivalent net interest income has grown 20% over the past year. Adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision earnings totaled $83.7 million, up 19% from a year ago and an adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision ROA totaling 1.59%. Return on assets was 1.30% and return on tangible common equity was 15.09%. We also made meaningful progress with the two commercial credits we discussed last quarter. Net charge-offs on those two loans were in line with the specific reserves we established in the second quarter.

Nonperforming assets were stable at 57 basis points of total assets. Credit costs for new nonaccrual loans were recognized in prior quarters, keeping this quarter's provision expense to a modest $3.3 million. Year to date net charge-offs of 38 basis points remains consistent with the full year outlook we provided last quarter. Deposits grew $175.6 million or 4.2% annualized and noninterest-bearing deposits now represent 22% of total deposits. Loan growth was more modest at 1.8% annualized.

Year to date results on Slide 6 reflect the earnings power of a combined company now that First Savings acquisition and integration are fully behind us. Excluding acquisition-related expenses and the first quarter mortgage loan sale adjustment, adjusted EPS totaled $2.87, up nearly 16% from the same period 2 years ago. Adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision earnings totaled $247 million, up 18% from last year and 24% from 2 years ago, and our adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 53.85%.

Our capital position remained strong. We completed a $100 million subordinated debt issuance in late September. Our total risk-based capital ratio increased to 13.58%, and we repurchased $50.3 million of common stock year to date, including $12 million in the third quarter. Tangible common equity was 8.83% with the decline in tangible book value this quarter driven by the impact of higher interest rates on AOCI rather than our operating performance.

Now Mike Stewart will discuss our line of business momentum.

Michael Stewart

Thanks, Mark. Starting on Slide 7, business strategy. Our primary business strategy is to build on our Midwestern strength through disciplined organic growth. Our goal is to be the bank of choice across the Midwest, earned through trusted relationships. Our four core business lines continue to work together to deliver financial solutions for businesses and consumers across the market we serve.

We are focused on driving organic growth by concentrating on the client segments in the markets where we hold a competitive advantage and by deepening relationships across our commercial and consumer banking lines of business. We have made meaningful progress building a stronger, more focused growth engine that is supported by deep client relationships, disciplined capital deployment and continued investment in the capabilities needed to serve our clients and communities.

Our Midwest markets remain resilient and our relationship-based model continues to create opportunities for growth. As we engage with clients every day, we see businesses investing, expanding and seeking trusted financial partners who can provide our broad range of solutions.

Turning to Slide 8, a few more comments on loans. After a strong second quarter, third quarter loans, like Mark said, increased at 1.8% annualized rate with strong growth coming from the construction and mortgage loan portfolio. Overall, commercial loans were relatively flat as solid production did occur within our Community and Corporate Banking segments, our asset-based and investment real estate teams, but that could not outpace the normal course payoffs within the sponsor finance and the Shared National Credit portfolios. Pipelines overall are stable, so loan growth should continue through the fourth quarter in the mid-single digits.

Slide 9, deposits. We continue to focus on our deposit gathering and deepening relationships across both the commercial and consumer side of the business. Our objective is to support loan growth with strong core funding, while maintaining a disciplined approach to balance sheet. Third quarter deposits grew at a 4.2% annualized rate with the consumer line of business and specifically the Private Wealth team driving the increase.

We spoke last quarter about one of our clients selling a business, which resulted in a large and temporary increase in the commercial deposit base. That client has now moved those balances to our Private client team for investment services and distributed some of the cash they needed to along the way. The 0.5% annualized year to date decline in total deposits is primarily now the result of balance sheet repositioning from the first quarter with First Savings Bank broker deposits being eliminated.

On a year to date basis, consumer non-maturity deposits continue to show growth of 3% and net increases in households, and as noted on this page, our core commercial loans also grew.

So I'll turn it now over to Michele for her detailed summary of the balance sheet income statement. Michele?

Michele Kawiecki

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Slide 10 covers our third quarter performance. Total revenues continued to grow in Q3 with net interest income increasing $2.1 million or 1.3% and noninterest income increasing $800,000 linked quarter. This resulted in healthy pre-tax, pre-provision earnings for the quarter. Tangible book value per share of $28.86 decreased $0.94 or 3.2% linked quarter due to the impact of AOCI from changes in interest rates during the quarter.

Slide 11 shows our year-to-date results. Lines one through four at the top of the page show the growth of our balance sheet over the past 12 months with loans increasing $2 billion or 14.6% and deposits increasing $2.1 billion or 13.8%. At the same time, the lower yielding investment portfolio declined $258 million as we continue to shift our earning asset mix toward higher yielding loans.

Of the $2 billion increase in loans, the majority came from the acquisition of First Savings in the first quarter. Excluding loans acquired from First Savings and the impact of the mortgage loan sale activity in the second quarter, we generated organic loan growth of $473.7 million or 3.5% over the past 12 months, reflecting continued demand across our markets.

Looking at the income statement in the middle of the page, net interest income increased $74.3 million or 18.7%, benefiting from growth and lower funding costs and our year to date net interest margin of 3.39% was 16 basis points higher than the same period in the prior year. Noninterest income increased $17 million when excluding the $29.8 million loss on mortgage loans sold in the second quarter. Altogether, total revenue grew nearly 19% on a normalized basis with First Savings contributing approximately 13% of that growth.

Slide 12 shows the details of our investment portfolio. The bond portfolio declined $168 million linked quarter to $3.1 billion due to principal paydowns and maturities as well as a decline in the portfolio valuation due to interest rate changes. Expected cash flows from scheduled principal and interest payments and bond maturities over the next 12 months totaled $271.4 million with a roll-off yield of approximately 2.11%. We plan to continue to use this cash flow to fund higher yielding loan growth in the near term.

Slide 13 covers our loan portfolio. The loan portfolio yield increased 12 basis points from the prior quarter to 6.23%. During the quarter, new and renewed loans originated at an average yield of 6.34% compared to 6.28% in the prior quarter, which continues to be a tailwind for the overall portfolio yield and reflects the pricing discipline from our team.

The allowance for credit losses is shown on Slide 14. This quarter, we recorded $3.3 million in provision and had net charge-offs of $29.4 million. As a result, the allowance for credit losses totaled $215.5 million at the end of the quarter, representing a coverage ratio of 1.38%.

Slide 15 shows details of our deposit portfolio. Total deposits grew to $16.9 billion this quarter, and the rate paid on deposits increased to 9 basis points to 2.16%, reflecting the competitive deposit pricing in our markets.

Next, Slide 16 shows a continued favorable net interest margin trend. Our net interest margin of 3.44% increased 6 basis points from prior quarter and 20 basis points over the past year. The yield on earning assets, shown on line four, increased 10 basis points to 5.56%, driven by higher loan yields, which more than offset the 4 basis point increase in interest expense shown on line five. When comparing to the same period in the prior year, the yield on earning assets nearly returned to that level in prior year, yet interest expense was 22 basis points less, creating an attractive earnings profile.

Next, Slide 17 shows the details of noninterest income, which totaled $38 million for the quarter, an increase of $800,000 over prior quarter. Customer-related fields -- fees, shown on the bottom right of the page, totaled $34.3 million and were consistent with prior quarter as growth in service charges, wealth management fees and card payment fees offset a modest decline in gains on sales of loans.

Moving to Slide 18. Noninterest expense for the quarter totaled $116.3 million and included $900,000 in acquisition-related costs. Excluding acquisition costs, noninterest expense increased $3.9 million over prior quarter, driven by higher marketing expense, employee health insurance costs and $0.5 million on an impairment charge of a building lease.

Slide 19 shows our capital ratios. The tangible common equity ratio declined 16 basis points to 8.83% due to the impact of AOCI, but remains well above our 8% target.

During the quarter, we repurchased 287,000 shares for $12 million, bringing total share repurchases year to date to just under 1.3 million shares for $50.3 million. The $100 million subordinate debt issuance we completed during the quarter increased our total risk-based capital ratio by 60 basis points, bringing it to 13.58%. We remain well capitalized with a common equity Tier 1 ratio at 11.22% and are well positioned to support continued balance sheet growth and disciplined capital return.

That concludes my remarks, and I will now turn it over to John Martin to discuss asset quality.

John Martin

Thanks, Michele, and good morning. My remarks begin on Slide 20. Overall, the loan portfolio remains well diversified across Commercial and consumer lending categories with total loans of $15.6 billion at quarter end. Commercial real estate concentration levels remain well within regulatory guidelines with total CRE at 182% of total risk-based capital and construction at 42%, leaving meaningful capacity relative to the regulatory concentration thresholds of 300% and 100%, respectively.

Within the Commercial portfolio, line utilization remained stable at approximately 49%. Shared National Credit exposure declined to $936 million across 88 borrowers, while sponsor finance totaled approximately $811 million across 91 companies in diverse industries. Overall, these measures continue to reflect a diversified portfolio and a disciplined approach to concentration and structural risk management.

Turning to Slide 21. Third quarter asset quality activity primarily reflected the continued resolution and migration of previously identified problem credits rather than broad-based deterioration across the portfolio. We recognized approximately $29 million of charge-offs related to the authorized wireless retailer and commercial and residential roofing contractor discussed last quarter with the associated provision expense having been recognized in the prior quarter.

We also moved two larger relationships to nonaccrual during the quarter, an $18.4 million auto parts distributor and a $4.3 million digital marketing firm. Both had been under stress for multiple quarters and had already been downgraded, specifically evaluated and specifically reserved in prior quarters before moving to nonaccrual in the third quarter. That timing is important to understanding the quarter. Although these relationships were newly reported as non-accrual in the third quarter, the expected loss content had already been recognized through specific reserves established in prior periods.

Consequently, their migration to non-accrual did not create a significant new provision requirement. As such, total third quarter provision expense of $3.3 million was deemed sufficient to cover growth, new credit migration and the impact of the economic forecast. We expect these new non-accrual relationships to be resolved during the fourth quarter.

Moving to Slide 22. Net nonperforming asset migration was essentially flat during the quarter. New non-accrual inflows, including the two relationships just discussed and several smaller additions were offset by charge-offs and other resolution activity. The significant charge-offs recognized this quarter were tied to the loss content of credits that moved to nonaccrual last quarter and had been reserved for at that time.

In summary, reported credit activity remained elevated as we continue to work through a limited number of known problem relationships. However, the quarter did not reflect a comparable increase in newly identified loss content. The largest charge-offs were previously provided for and the largest new non-accruals had specific reserves established in prior quarters. Outside of these relationship-specific credits, portfolio performance remains generally stable. We remain focused on proactive portfolio management, timely recognition of risk, disciplined reserving and the orderly resolution of problem assets.

I'll now turn the call back over to Mark.

Mark Hardwick

Thanks, John. Turning now to Slide 23. Our long-term track record of shareholder value creation remains a key strength and a priority. Over the past decade, earnings per share has grown at an 8.5% compound annual growth rate, dividends per share at 13.3% and tangible book value per share, excluding AOCI, at 8.5%.

Slide 24 highlights our 11.2% total asset CAGR over the past decade, reflecting a consistent strategy of organic growth complemented by disciplined value-accretive acquisitions that expand our demographic and geographic footprint.

Before we open the line for questions, I'd like to take a moment on a more personal note. As we previously announced, I will retire at the end of this year, and Mike Stewart will succeed me as Chief Executive Officer. As such, this will -- this is my final earnings call.

I joined First Merchants in November of 1997 as Corporate Controller. Over the past 29 years, I've been privileged to serve as Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and now Chief Executive, all those last three positions over the -- over a 24-year period. I couldn't have asked for a better place to spend my career.

To our 2,200 teammates, thank you. Your dedication to our clients and our communities is what makes First Merchants special, and it's been an honor -- it's been the honor of my professional life to work alongside all of you. To our clients, thank you for trusting us with your financial lives and your businesses. To our Board of Directors, thank you for your guidance, support and your confidence over many years. And to our shareholders and the analysts on this call, many of whom I've known since my early days as Chief Financial Officer, thank you for your interest, your challenging questions and your investment in First Merchants.

Those conversations have made us a better company. I have great confidence in Mike. He's been a trusted partner for 18 years. He knows our clients. He knows our markets. He's built strong teams across all of our lines of business. And together with Michele, John and the rest of our leadership team, Mike and First Merchants is well positioned to build on our Midwestern strength, deepen our client relationships and deliver sustainable earnings growth and shareholder value.

The company -- This company is in excellent hands, and I look forward to cheering on First Merchants as a shareholder. Thank you for your continued support and investment in First Merchants.

And operator, we are ready to take questions for the last time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.

質疑応答

Daniel Tamayo

First, I just wanted to say congrats on your retirement, Mark. Good luck in your endeavors, and we'll definitely miss you on the call here and in our dealings with First Merchants. And then congratulations to Mike on the new role. I guess my first question is just to -- probably for John actually on credit cost. I appreciate all the detail on the near term. So just want to make sure that we kind of understand that. So the way to think about it is the $22 million and change million of new non-accruals will be charged off in the fourth quarter. Is the way to think about that, the reserve should be relatively stable as a percentage of loans going forward? And is there anything else in terms of specific reserves that we need to be aware of kind of near term?

John Martin

Daniel, let me clarify. We're not going to charge off the full amount of those loans. And I think the way to think about it, last quarter, I guided for full year between 40 and 45 basis points for the year. And then kind of after reviewing those names and the portfolio for the end of the year, I would probably guide towards the lower of those two. It's probably closer to 40 -- 38 to 40 basis points for the remainder of the year, not for the quarter, but for the full year annualized -- for the full year. That make sense?

Daniel Tamayo

Yes, that's helpful, John. Anything on the reserve levels going forward and anything else in terms of specific reserves that we need to be aware of?

John Martin

I think in terms of the reserving level, at this point, the reserving is going to largely be related to portfolio growth for -- again, into the fourth quarter as it relates to specific reserves or new specific reserves into the fourth quarter. I'm not seeing or expecting anything at this point outside of what's previously been specifically reserved for.

Daniel Tamayo

The increase in -- I apologize, but I think I'm remembering this correctly, there was an increase in criticized, small, if it was, but anything to kind of read into with that other than -- there's a lot of moving parts, but any color you can provide on that?

John Martin

No. The -- Both the criticized and classifieds were up somewhat for the quarter, but it wasn't related to an individual large name or anything like that. It's just kind of normal migration that we see quarter-to-quarter. Higher rates do have an impact on portions of the investment real estate portfolio, but it's not really a broad-based concern that I have as it relates to the portfolio. It's just kind of new migrations that kind of come in and go out. And we're constantly reviewing the portfolio and looking at grades and how the borrowers are performing. And in any given quarter, you can see an uptick or a downtick. But there's nothing there that I am concerned with at the moment.

Daniel Tamayo

Last question, and I'll just keep it on the same topic on credit. Just maybe help us given the volatility around credit kind of this quarter and next quarter, where you think the more normalized level should be kind of post that as we look into '27 from either provision or charge-off perspective?

John Martin

From a provision or charge-off perspective, I had been kind of pre the last quarter saying it was between 15 and 20 basis points. I'd say probably on a more normalized basis, we're probably in the 20 to 25 basis point range would be a normal -- kind of a more normalized charge-off run rate. In terms of the provision expense, it will just obviously keep up with that. Michele?

Michele Kawiecki

Yes. And just to give you a little more color around provision. I mean, I think once -- John, once we have these other large credits resolved and coming out of nonperforming in Q4, I would expect that specific maybe to resolve around $10 million or so. And so when you think about coverage ratio, it will be somewhere between like that mid-1s -- Right now, we're at 1.38%. It will be low to mid-1.30s. And that kind of coverage ratio is what we'll expect to have going forward with new growth.

Operator

Our next question comes from Russell Gunther with Stephens.

Russell Elliott Gunther

Wanted to -- on the loan growth discussion. So appreciate the color you shared in terms of growth coming in a little lighter this quarter and it sounds like you expect to return to your more traditional mid-single digit clip in 4Q. Could you just give us a sense of the drivers or kind of mix of the anticipated growth next quarter? And then perhaps bigger picture, is there an absolute level of rates where you start to see demand destruction or pipeline fallout that puts that kind of 6% to 8% growth target at risk?

Michael Stewart

Sure. Mike Stewart here. Go back to your first part of that question. The muted loan growth this time was as much just the management of the portfolio that's really inside the sponsor and that Shared National Credit, so where we are selectively choosing where we want to play and how much we want to continue to grow that portfolio.

If you look at the rest of the production level through the commercial book of business, what we call the community corporate bank and the investment real estate and what we do with asset-based lending, there was really good production numbers in those, so -- which is what I like. And to that point, those pipelines continue to be at really good levels and the expected payoffs and/or purposeful credit exits probably won't be at that same level in that fourth quarter. So back to that mid-single digit expectation of loan growth. And like I said, I'm seeing it through our geographies, and I'm seeing it through how we segment or go-to-market on our commercial business lines.

When I go back to your second part of that question, interest rates and impact, well, the pipeline on our consumer mortgage is definitely showing softness. You get mortgage rates that have a 7. The refi business was already kind of slowing out, nil, and purchases just become a little bit less active, so to speak. So the pipeline on the consumer mortgage side is definitely being impacted now. That level is still a good level. It's just not where it would have been a year ago when we look year-over-year, understanding seasonality and quarter-over-quarter.

When you look at -- and to John's point, maybe when you look at where the interest rate impacts would be on a Commercial portfolio, it's not bringing credit issues to bear, but it is having certain real estate projects potentially being rethought or business owners rethinking how they want to potentially do some capital expenditures or do an acquisition. So that is just a end of the year mentality, maybe it's interest rate. Maybe it's still a little uncertainty with tariffs and the general temperature throughout business lines. But right now, I don't view interest rates hurting demand except for on the consumer mortgage.

Russell Elliott Gunther

Got it. That's very helpful. And then switching gears to the margin, Michele, it would be helpful to get your thoughts in terms of potential continued expansion in the coming quarter? And maybe focusing on loan yields. I appreciate where you shared the new production came on. Perhaps if you could touch on kind of where they exited the quarter in September and bigger picture, just what type of loan yield beta you would expect in a rising rate environment?

Michele Kawiecki

Yes. Well, looking at our Q4 margin, I mean, we would expect our Q4 margin to be stable. Normally, when we get a rate increase, like we did in September, we would see our margin tick up a basis point or 2 because of our asset-sensitive balance sheet and the fact that we've got some really great tailwinds on asset repricing, not only on the loan side, but also on the bond portfolio. But I just wanted to remind you, I mean, this fourth quarter will be the first quarter that we'll be absorbing a full quarter of interest expense from the sub debt. So that will offset a little bit of that increase.

When I look at September, our September loan yields were down a little bit just simply because we had kind of flat growth in September and loan fees were lower. So I don't really use September kind of as an indication of where I think it's going to go. I feel like fourth quarter will be -- when you look at third quarter to fourth quarter, we should see loan yields increase, interest income increasing. And so once we kind of normalize with our sub debt expense, I think when you look into 2027, we'll continue to see a little bit of lift in margin.

Russell Elliott Gunther

And then just if I could sneak one more in on expenses. So results this quarter, I think, a little higher than what I was thinking about at least and maybe above where you thought about exiting the year around $114 million. So has your -- have your thoughts changed at all in terms of the near-term expense outlook in 4Q? And then perhaps bigger picture as we start to think about next year, is there sort of a normalized growth rate to contemplate that would kind of cover your anticipated investment in tech and talent? And does that translate to positive operating leverage?

Michele Kawiecki

Yes, it is higher. This quarter was more elevated than we had guided. And really, it kind of came from a strategic decision we made to invest more in marketing and branding, not just this quarter, but even on a go-forward basis to help us kind of win organically, particularly in the deposits in our markets. And so I do think this Q3 run rate is a good run rate to use for Q4. And I think when we look into 2027, as I've guided before, I think the 3% to 5% expense increase on top of that is really what I think would make sense for us.

Operator

Our next question comes from Damon DelMonte with KBW.

Damon Del Monte

First off, Mark, congrats on the upcoming retirement. Been a pleasure working with you over the last decade or so and wish you nothing but the best going forward. And Mike, welcome to the new role. Gotten to know you in the last few years, so look forward to continuing the journey with you. So first question, probably more for Michele here on fee income. Mortgage banking held up pretty well this quarter. But as we progress through the quarter and then with the rate hike and kind of where mortgage rates have been the last couple of weeks, it seems like it's becoming a more challenging environment. So just curious on your thoughts on kind of gain on sale income here in the fourth quarter and then kind of how that translates into a -- an outlook for all of noninterest income in the fourth quarter?

Michele Kawiecki

Yes. I mean for fourth quarter, I mean, I feel -- look, I should say, first, we had just a couple of onetime items, some CRA income and so forth. It really amounted to maybe about $700,000. It was relatively muted, that won't recur in Q4. And as Mike said, I do think that maybe gains on sale of loans could be a little bit softer. But by and large, we feel like we should be able to deliver a pretty consistent level of fee income in Q4 than we did in Q3.

Michael Stewart

And talk about the new verticals that we have and some of the gain on sale we wouldn't have had this time last year. When I think about the SBA business and the First Lien HELOC business, we're picking up some gain on sale there that we wouldn't have had a year ago.

Damon Del Monte

Got it. And then as you look out into '27, do we think about kind of card payment and wealth management as being like high single-digit growth engines for you there?

Michele Kawiecki

Yes. I mean I think when we look at particularly the client-related fee categories, which we break out on our slides, we do expect those categories to grow kind of in that higher single digits, somewhere between like that 8% to 10% rate. So that is what we would expect for 2027.

Damon Del Monte

And then I guess, lastly, with the -- some of the sub debt offering, I think you noted at the time of that, that gives you more flexibility to remain supportive of the shares in the buyback. So just curious on your thoughts. Are you still kind of committed to that? Can we expect additional buyback over the coming quarters?

Michele Kawiecki

Yes, definitely. We were in a quiet period, really, I think, so far through this quarter just because of earnings and other announcements and so forth. But we will use some of that sub debt to buy back shares. And so I think you'll see an elevated level of share buyback in Q4, maybe potentially in Q1 as well. But it is our intention to continue to stay in the repurchase game.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler.

Nathan Race

I just want to echo the earlier comments. Congratulations, Mark and Mike, look forward to working with you in the future more so. I just want to clarify going back to John's comments around kind of the near-term provisioning outlook. It doesn't sound like you expect provisioning to cover the expected charge-offs in the fourth quarter just given that you have some specific allocations already in place. Is that the right way to think about it?

John Martin

Yes. The new non-accruals that are working their way through, obviously, those are the ones that I specifically reserved for in prior quarters and are in the Allowance segment.

Nathan Race

And then, Michele, just going back to your comments around kind of hopefully getting to the kind of middle to lower end of the range of the 3% to 5% expense growth outlook for next year. I'm just curious, one, if you could confirm? Then two, to what extent are any kind of commercial banker or other kind of production-related hires contemplated in that figure to the extent you're seeing kind of opportunities or disruption across your footprint to add some high-quality folks?

Michael Stewart

Yes. I'll hit a little bit on that. We are remaining opportunistic and open to what might be coming our way, especially in the Michigan market. We're now on the back end of the integration of the Fifth Third, Comerica and individuals are becoming available. So we're actively looking at where we could add bankers that would immediately add value. So we -- if there's any increase on the salary side, I would expect to -- the resulted increase on level of production.

When you think about other areas in which right now I feel like we've got a really strong core team, we've built out and invested in some teams in the last 18 months that have been benefiting us. So absent the Michigan market, I think that's about the only place we will continue to look heavy at.

Nathan Race

And then, Mike, while I have you, just as you're taking over as CEO, and I know it's kind of early days in the transition period, just given the announcement last month. But just curious as you take the seat, is there any kind of particular initiatives that you're looking to accelerate or any potential changes that we can expect or any kind of balance sheet optimization that you're maybe looking at just to maybe kind of enhance the earnings power of the company going forward?

Michael Stewart

Yes. We've been talking a lot about those things. I want to go back a little bit that Mark's retirement really is nothing more than his opportunity in front of him. So the consistency of First Merchants and continue to execute with the existing executive team and the senior management team for me is job one, is to build that consistency and assure that our clients and the rest of our teammates and you, our shareholders, have great [indiscernible] of that.

As we look into 2027, we can look at things from a budget point of view, but we're also looking at things strategically, and we're really deep into an initiative that I started and Mark has been supportive of a year ago, to really analyze and build a strategic plan that helps us with choices. We've got a nice, a varied balance sheet. We've got opportunities to continue to improve how we want to resource our teams and our staff, and we're going to make those come to life, but we look all in the idea that we can continue to grow our earnings per share and our tangible book value and the means that brings us back to some really strong valuation.

Nathan Race

And if I could just sneak in one more housekeeping question. I apologize if I didn't catch it, Michele, but just on the tax rate for the fourth quarter and into 2027?

Michele Kawiecki

14%, I think, would be a good, effective tax rate to use for the modeling.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Martin with Brean Capital.

Brian Martin

Congrats to both of you guys, both on different roles here. I look forward to working with you, Mike. And Mark, it's been a great journey over the years, and I wish you all the best in your retirement. So maybe just first one for me was just on Mike, you talked about just kind of the loan pipelines and the consumer where it's at. Maybe can you just give a little color, just some thoughts on where you're seeing the most opportunity on the commercial side as you look into 4Q and next year, given that seems to be a bigger focus given the consumer side, at least right now? So just kind of what you're thinking about it? You already touched on the potential rate outlook impact, so just -- or maybe it's for John, either one of you.

Michael Stewart

Well, we can both do it together. I think that where we're still seeing the best momentum and you see it continue in our pipeline is what we call in our community and our corporate bank. So in the market of bankers working with the businesses that are right in our backyards, good C&I activity, outworking our competition, being in the Midwest offers us some stability and growth opportunities as these owners are evaluating their plans into 2027. That's where I see the continued growth happening.

John Martin

Yes. I would agree. The opportunities that we continue to see are our core C&I and even on a somewhat accelerated basis the ABL, the asset-based lending portfolio where you have borrowers who need liquidity to grow their businesses, and we have a real quality group of individuals that have the controls and portfolio management skills that have allowed us to originate some real, nice opportunities.

So a couple of places there. Investment real estate with higher rates, it does have an impact. But as long as they meet the capital hurdles, we can still -- we still are finding opportunities there as well as some low-income housing tax opportunities, still continue to see those as well. So a lot of opportunities across the portfolio.

Brian Martin

And those pipelines are both up from where they were a quarter ago or stable? Or just how are they pipelined?

Michael Stewart

Yes, those are -- in some segment part of those, that commercial pipeline, it's modestly up quarter-over-quarter. I also look at things seasonal year-over-year, and it's stable to that means as well.

Brian Martin

And then secondly, maybe just Michele, on the margin. I mean, I guess, thanks for the comments on the fourth quarter and just where the balance sheet is positioned here. Just maybe two things. Just with the rate environment and a couple of rate hikes, can you just remind us the impact from rate hikes and just how you're thinking about if we get a couple of hikes going into the next couple of quarters, how that plays out? And then just remind us the level of fixed rate loans in '27, kind of what's repricing there?

Michele Kawiecki

Sure. Yes. So with each 25 basis point rate hike, we typically see margin increase 1 to 2 basis points. And so as I said, normally, we would see a 1 to 2 basis point lift with the September rate hike, but we are adding the cost of the sub debt, which will partially offset that. But I think if we get an additional rate hike or 2, you'll see some of that additional lift. And so I think that's the way you can think about it. On the fixed rate portfolio, over the next 12 months, we've got about $350 million that's at a 4.90% rate that will reprice.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brendan Nosal with Hovde Group.

Brendan Nosal

Just one from me at this point. Noticed that the book was down from $1.1 billion to $936 million quarter-over-quarter. Just kind of curious, if this was just due course changes in the book or if it just was the result of anything intentional that you implemented in the portfolio following last quarter's wireless carrier credit out of that book?

Michael Stewart

It's a little bit of both. Those account declines were -- they were coming up for just normal renewals or had some request in front of us. And we always look for how well we cross-sell the opportunity, what's the return we're getting on the opportunity and where does it fit within our hold levels and it -- all those transactions felt like they were ones we would be better not participating in.

Brendan Nosal

And then to the extent that you have additional renewals coming up, is there more work that you would do in that portfolio just to kind of realign it with where you're headed at now, or is most of that work complete at this point?

Michael Stewart

I don't really have a good view on what's coming at us in the fourth and the first quarter as far as what's on their minds. But we've got a really strong team in that area as well. And we do have some fantastic relationships in that book of business. So just like anything, we look at it on a -- on an individual basis each time. And it'll be something that we'll evaluate. But I don't think there's any changes in front of me right now. I'm looking at John as I say that.

John Martin

Yes. It's just -- I would just repeat the first part of Mike Stewart's answer in that we're looking at them transaction by transaction. It's not like we've instituted a core portfolio model change or something of that nature. We look at relationships as they come up. And I think from my seat as they come through and we discuss them, we're looking at the pricing, the cross-sell, the opportunity, how it fits to certainly what happened last quarter as it relates to potential for loss and how much maybe unsecured -- not unsecured, but [indiscernible], to use a term, in the transaction. But that's -- it's a risk management and return exercise.

Operator

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. Have a great day. You may now disconnect.