カーブライン・プロパティーズ（CURB）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：OFFOガイダンスを上方修正、投資額は10億ドル超へ

主要なポイント

• カーブライン・プロパティーズは、2026年通期の営業FFO（OFFO）予想を1株当たり1.25〜1.27ドルに引き上げました。中間値ベースでの成長率は18%をわずかに上回ります。
• 第3四半期の総NOI（純営業利益）は、物件取得および内部成長に支えられ、前四半期比で11%増加し、前年同期比では50%以上増加しました。
• 既存物件NOI成長率は3.4%に加速し、これには2.8%の基本賃料成長が含まれます。直近12ヶ月の設備投資（CapEx）はNOIの8%未満を維持しました。
• カーブラインは、決算説明会の直前の金曜日までに、2026年通期で8億ドル強の資産を取得しました。経営陣は現在、通期の投資額が従来の10億ドルという目標を超えると見込んでいます。
• 同社は、現金および預金、未決済の株式調達資金、借入予定の1億5,000万ドルのタームローンを含め、8億9,500万ドルの即時流動性を報告しました。経営陣は年末の純有利子負債/EBITDA倍率が2.5倍未満になると予想しています。
• 約800万ドルの契約済み未開業パイプラインのほぼ75%が2027年3月31日までに開業予定であり、第4四半期および2027年に向けた既存物件の成長加速という経営陣の見通しを後押ししています。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

カーブラインは第3四半期末時点で239件のコンビニエンスセンターを保有していました。2024年10月1日のスピンオフ以来、同社はほぼすべて個別査定による取引を通じて、17億ドル強のコンビニエンスセンターを取得しました。

募集区画に対する需要は引き続き高水準を維持しました。当四半期の新規および更新の賃貸契約面積は合計約17万平方フィートに達しました。経営陣によると、新規契約の賃料アップサイド（スプレッド）は20%近辺を維持し、更新契約のスプレッドは概ね6%〜8%の範囲でした。

予想されている既存物件NOIの成長加速は、大幅な賃料スプレッド拡大に依存するのではなく、主に入居率の上昇が牽引しています。経営陣は、契約済み未開業パイプラインのほぼ98%が2027年第3四半期末までに開業する見込みであると語りました。

カーブラインは当四半期中、既存センターに隣接する物件、またはその一部を構成する物件4件も取得しました。経営陣は、地域市場での出店密度と関係性を構築するにつれ、隣接物件の取得がより重要な案件獲得チャネルになりつつあると述べました。

経営陣による業績予想

経営陣が改定した2026年通期の1株当たりOFFO予想1.25〜1.27ドルの前提条件は以下の通りです：

• 通期の投資額が10億ドルをわずかに上回ること。
• 設備投資額がNOIの10%未満であること。
• 共有サービス協定に基づいてSITE Centersに支払われる手数料を含めて、一般管理費（G&A費用）が約3,200万ドルであること。

第4四半期の一般管理費は合計で900万ドルをわずかに下回る見込みです。追加の株式決済がないと仮定した場合、経営陣は第4四半期の平均株式数が約1億2,100万株になると示しました。非現金収益は前四半期比で約30万ドル減少する見込みです。

同社は2026年末時点の純有利子負債/EBITDA倍率が2.5倍未満になると見込んでいます。また、経営陣は、現在利用可能な資金を2026年および2027年にかけて投下することで、2027年の2桁台の収益成長を支える可能性があると述べました。ただし、今後の資金調達の決定は市場動向や買収機会に依存します。

リスクと重点領域

株式および負債コストの上昇に伴い、カーブラインが要求するアンレバード・リターンが高水準化しています。経営陣は、買主が賃料の時価評価（マーク・ツー・マーケット）の可能性、テナントの信用力、低い資本支出要件も考慮するため、高品質で成長志向の物件のキャップレート（還元利回り）は相対的に下げ渋る可能性があると指摘しました。

電話会議で議論された借入コストには、スワップ後の予想タームローン構造で約5.1%〜5.2%、プライベート・プレースメント（私募）市場では米国債金利に応じて5%台後半から6%台前半のプライシングが含まれていました。

経営陣は、低い水準からの出発ではあるものの、特にパンデミック期の恩恵を受けた一部の事業者やエンターテインメント関連企業を中心に、全米で小売業の破綻が増加していると観測しました。しかし、カーブラインは売掛金、長期滞納債権、あるいは契約更新率に重大な変化はなく、未回収収益の見込み額として約60ベーシスポイントを維持したと報告しました。

2025年12月31日時点で少なくとも12ヶ月間保有されていた資産のみが含まれるため、既存物件ポートフォリオは比較的規模が小さくなっています。その結果、四半期の既存物件の数値はポートフォリオ全体の業績を反映していない可能性があります。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

• 物件取得のプライシング：経営陣は、資本市場の変動にもかかわらず、取引規模は堅調に推移していると述べました。質の低い資産はキャップレート拡大幅が大きくなる可能性がありますが、高い信用力、集客力、賃料引き上げ余地を持つ高品質な物件の価格改定スピードは緩やかになる可能性があります。
• 要求リターン：カーブラインは、資本コストの上昇に伴い、アンレバードIRRの期待値を引き上げました。同社は物件の品質基準を変更することなく、5年間のキャッシュフロー増加モデルを通じて引き続き案件取得の評価を行っています。
• 資本配分：経営陣は負債と株式間の柔軟性を強調しました。ポートフォリオは全物件が無担保であり、ジョイントベンチャーはなく、2029年まで負債の満期もありません。
• 査定実績：経営陣によると、初期に取得した物件は概ね、当初の想定よりも力強い賃料スプレッドを生み出し、低い設備投資額で推移しています。設備投資（CapEx）は、同社の当初目標であるNOIの10%未満に対し、NOIの8%近くで推移しています。
• テナントの健全性：カーブラインはテナントの信用指標に重大な悪化を見ていません。経営陣は過去5年間における全米規模テナントの維持率を90%台前半と見積もっています。
• 地域拡大：同社は、大都市圏ごとに固定された比率を目標設定するのではなく、各物件を個別に精査・査定しつつ、良好な人口動態と適切な取得機会を持つ新たな市場への拡大に引き続き前向きです。

業績説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Curbline Properties Corp.'s Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Stephanie Ruys de Perez, Vice President of Capital Markets. Stephanie, please go ahead.

Stephanie de Perez

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Curbline Properties third quarter 2026 earnings conference call.

Joining me today are Chief Executive Officer, David Lukes, and Chief Financial Officer, Conor Fennerty. In addition to the press release distributed this morning, we have posted our quarterly financial supplement and slide presentation on our website at curbline.com, which are intended to support our prepared remarks during today's call.

Please be aware that certain of our statements today may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements.

Additional information may be found in our earnings press release and in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q.

In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, including FFO, operating FFO and same-property net operating income. Descriptions and reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's quarterly financial supplement and investor presentation.

At this time, it is my pleasure to introduce our Chief Executive Officer, David Lukes.

David Lukes

Good morning, and welcome to Curbline Properties third quarter conference call. Third quarter results highlight a continuation of trends from the first half of the year with more than $300 million of investments and fundraising, providing ample liquidity and capital to drive significant growth into the fourth quarter and 2027.

Given that our company celebrated its 2-year anniversary just a few weeks ago, I wanted to start with some details on what we've accomplished to date before pivoting to what we are seeing in the market and some operational highlights. I'll then turn it over to Conor to walk through quarterly results and our guidance increase.

As many of you know, Curbline was spun off from our predecessor on October 1, 2024, with a simple and focused strategy as the only pure-play REIT dedicated to convenience real estate, which we believe offers sustainable capital-efficient growth in excess of the retail real estate industry.

Our clear first-mover advantage has allowed us to construct an unmatched portfolio in this unique sector and scale the fragmented but liquid convenience marketplace.

In the 2-year period since spinoff, we have acquired just over $1.7 billion of convenience centers, almost entirely on an individual basis. We funded these acquisitions with $800 million of cash on hand at the time of the spinoff, plus an additional $1.6 billion of capital raised, including almost $1 billion of common equity.

This net investment activity, along with greater than 3% same-property growth in 2024 and 2025 and retained cash flow stemming from the capital-light nature of this sector has led to significant per share earnings growth on both an absolute and relative basis.

Specifically, annualized OFFO growth has grown from $0.91 per share in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $1.28 per share if you annualize the third quarter of 2026, which is an increase of over 41%. It has also led to compelling total return for shareholders with shares outperforming the REIT index by over 30% and the shopping center peers by a similar amount.

We are all obviously incredibly proud of our accomplishments to date, but what's most encouraging in our view is that we are still in the early stages of our company's growth plan, and we are highly focused on the large addressable market in front of us within this unique and capital-efficient business.

Putting Curbline in context, at the end of the third quarter, we owned 239 convenience centers as compared to ICSC's estimate of over 68,000 convenience shopping centers in the country. Not every property will fit our mandate, but it's clear to us that there is a meaningful stream of opportunities available to us that are consistent with the assets we own or want to own, and we are making sure that we are positioned with the right team in the right place to win.

For the current year, we've acquired just over $800 million of assets through last Friday and now expect to exceed our prior expectation of $1 billion of total investments with visibility on our pipeline through the early part of next year. What's interesting to note is that the addition to the themes I've called out previously, including our marketing efforts, our extensive brokerage network, and the generational tailwinds as owners look to monetize their assets for their families or heirs.

You will notice this past quarter that we acquired 4 properties that are immediately adjacent to or part of our existing centers. And if I look at our pipeline, we have a handful of additional acquisitions of adjacent properties, extending another potential path for Curbline's growth.

We expect this theme or trend to continue going forward with our boots on the ground driving this effort. In each case, we continue to filter our acquisition opportunities by the factors most accretive to long-term cash flow growth, primary vehicular corridors, strong demographics, high traffic counts and creditworthy tenants.

Simple, flexible buildings with a straightforward row of shops support an extremely wide range of tenants and the result is a growing Curbline portfolio of highly diversified credit tenants with limited capital needs over time.

Moving to operations. We continue to see the elevated demand for space and signed just under 170,000 square feet of new leases and renewals this quarter. Trailing 12-month spreads remain consistent with our 5-year averages as the shortage of space in the affluent markets where we operate continues to lead the attractive leasing economics.

And importantly, as I noted last quarter, commencement of our SNO pipeline started to pick up at the tail end of the third quarter with the majority of our almost $8 million SNO pipeline expected to commence by March of next year.

This operational tailwind, along with the aforementioned investment activity is driving significant earnings growth with our raised guidance representing over 18% growth, which is among the highest in the entire REIT sector.

In terms of same-property growth, third quarter growth of 3.4% accelerated as we expected, with Conor providing more details on this later. Our capital expenditures also remain well below 10% of NOI, placing us among the most capital-efficient operators in the entire public REIT sector, an important hallmark of the convenience asset class and a differentiator in a rising rate environment.

In summary, we remain incredibly optimistic about the opportunity ahead for Curbline as we exclusively focus on the fragmented convenience real estate sector in an effort to deliver compelling relative and absolute growth for stakeholders.

I'd like to thank everyone at Curbline for their contributions that have positioned us and the company for outperformance. And with that, I'll turn it over to Conor.

Conor Fennerty

Thanks, David. I'll start with third quarter earnings and operating metrics before shifting to the company's revised 2026 guidance, and then conclude with the balance sheet. Third quarter NOI was ahead of plan, driven in part by higher year-over-year occupancy and recoveries.

Total NOI was up 11% sequentially and over 50% year-over-year, driven by acquisitions along with organic growth. Outside of the quarterly operational outperformance, there are no other material variances for the quarter, highlighting the simplicity of the Curbline income statement and business plan.

In the third quarter, we recorded a gross-up of $1.8 million of noncash G&A expense, which is offset by $1.8 million of noncash other income. This gross-up, which is a product of the shared services agreement and nets to 0 net income, is expected to continue through the third quarter of 2027 and is excluded from any G&A figures or targets.

In terms of operating metrics, the lease rate was effectively unchanged sequentially, down 10 basis points to 96.4%. Occupancy was up 20 basis points sequentially and 60 basis points year-over-year as we begin to see the impact of rent commencements.

Trailing 12-month leasing volume continues to grind higher on elevated activity and portfolio growth, though quarterly volumes and figures remain volatile given the lack of available space in the portfolio.

As David noted, we remain encouraged by the amount of activity and depth of demand for available space. As expected, same-property NOI accelerated in the third quarter to 3.4% with base rent growth of 2.8% and an easier comparison as compared to the second quarter on recoveries. Importantly, this growth was generated by limited capital expenditures with trailing 12-month CapEx of less than 8% of NOI.

Moving to our outlook for 2026. We are increasing OFFO guidance to a range between $1.25 and $1.27 per share, which at the midpoint represents just over 18% growth. We believe this level of growth will be the highest, certainly in the retail space and among the highest in the entire REIT sector.

Underpinning the midpoint of the range is: one, just over $1 billion of full year investments; two, CapEx as a percentage of NOI of less than 10%; and three, G&A of roughly $32 million, which includes fees paid to SITE Centers as part of the shared services agreement. Those fees totaled $1.4 million in the third quarter.

In terms of same-property NOI, we are now forecasting growth of 2.5% to 4% in 2026, following 3.3% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2024. As I've noted previously, the same-property pool is growing, but small, and it includes only assets owned for at least 12 months as of December 31, 2025, resulting in a large non-same-property pool, which we expect to grow at a similar rate to the same-property pool over the course of the year.

That said, we continue to expect an acceleration into the fourth quarter and 2027, driven by lease commencements with almost 75% of the SNO pipeline expected to commence by March 31 of next year and over 98% expected to commence by the end of the third quarter. The speed of the deliveries speak to the simplicity of the buildings that we buy and operate and differentiates Curbline from other purpose-built retail formats.

For moving pieces between the third and the fourth quarters, as a result of the timing of equity settlements in the third quarter, the quarter end share count was higher than the weighted average. Assuming no additional settlement activity, the fourth quarter share count would average about 121 million shares, which is a good starting point to layer on additional share settlement, which will be the primary funding source for fourth quarter acquisitions. Additionally, noncash revenue is expected to decline sequentially by about $300,000.

Finally, G&A is expected to total just under $9 million in the fourth quarter. Additional details on 2026 guidance and the moving pieces that I just outlined can be found on Page 10 of the earnings slides.

Ending on the balance sheet and some thoughts on growth in 2027. Curbline was spun off with a unique capital structure aligned with the company's business plan.

In the third quarter and fourth quarter to date, Curbline sold just over 3.6 million shares on a forward basis with roughly $102 million of expected gross proceeds, which we expect to use to fund acquisitions.

Including cash and deposits at quarter end of $133 million, total unsettled equity proceeds of $612 million and expected proceeds of $150 million from a term loan expected to close in the fourth quarter, Curbline has $895 million of immediate liquidity before taking into account operating cash flow or any additional capital.

In addition, we expect to end the year with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of under 2.5x, providing substantial additional dry powder and leverage capacity, continue to acquire assets and scale, resulting in significant earnings and cash flow growth well in excess of the REIT average. And with that, I'll turn it back to David.

David Lukes

Thanks, Conor. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

質疑応答

Ronald Kamdem

Can we just start with sort of the acquisitions? Obviously, looking forward to do over $1 billion this year, which is great. The interest rate environment has obviously changed over the past couple of months. But just love to hear your thoughts on what you're seeing today and how this could play out in terms of acquisition opportunities, cap rates, and then expected IRRs.

David Lukes

Sure, Ron. It's David. I think one thing we've learned over at least the last 5 or 6 years in the sector is that the liquidity of the subsector primarily result of the fact that most of this is owned by private families, and I think life events dictate a lot of need and desire to sell.

We've seen a pretty consistent stream of assets every week that come from what is effectively a very, very large subsector. And every time there's been any capital markets disruption or interest rate movements or geopolitical events, we just haven't really seen a change in the total volume of deals that are hitting the market.

You add to that the unlisted assets where we're getting phone calls from sellers at least half the time for assets that we're buying. I think our confidence level that the deal volumes remain high is also very high.

So in terms of deal volumes, I think our expectations are we're continuing to see a whole lot of real estate. A small portion of that is real estate that fits our buy box. And so, if I tie that back to your question about cap rates and pricing, I think you just have to remember that given the borrowing rates have gone up and on the margin, I would say, so have cap rates, I think it warrants some commentary about the fact that this subsector does contain numerous assets that are lower quality, lower growth, lower credit, and not a lot of spread between market rents and in-place.

And those types of assets, I think, are traditionally bought by levered buyers that are private, and I suspect that those cap rates have already moved up substantially.

On the other hand, there is a portion of this subsector which we're very intrigued and interested in. It fits our buy box, and it generally has strong credit, strong traffic, and a lot of mark-to-market on the rents. Given how those market rents keep growing with inflation, I would suspect that the cap rate movement is going to be a little bit stickier for growth-type assets.

Ronald Kamdem

Great. That's helpful. And then just my second quick one on the same-store NOI, good acceleration sort of in the quarter. As you're sort of thinking about the renewals business at 96% sort of in-line tenants, what are the prospects of sort of further acceleration from here, and how we should think about it?

Conor Fennerty

Sure, Ron. It's Conor. I would say there's 2 pieces to that question. As we talked about last quarter and this quarter, we are expecting acceleration in same property from the third to the fourth quarter and into 2027. That is largely occupancy-driven as we called out. It's really a function of our SNO pipeline.

To your point on pricing power and to David's commentary, tying that all together, we still have what we think is a pretty significant supply/demand imbalance in the markets we operate in, which is a huge benefit for us.

And I think our biggest asset management question with each renewal is, do we renew the existing tenant with 3% annual bumps, or do we potentially upgrade the tenant in terms of credit and mark-to-market? So again, it doesn't feel like a material change in terms of the operating environment. I would say it's stable given the supply/demand imbalance.

All that said, I wouldn't expect a dramatic change in renewal rates or renewal spreads or new leasing spreads. We've kind of hovered right around 20% on new leasing spreads, and renewals we've been in this, call it, 6% to 8% range.

So again, I don't expect a material change in that, but the same-property NOI acceleration really is a function of occupancy as opposed to pushing rents harder.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Todd Thomas

David, I appreciate the commentary there about the stickier yields and IRRs, I guess, on the higher-quality product that you are targeting. But has Curb's return requirements changed at all as you think about future deployment and just deploying capital and your current dry powder today? How are you thinking about that?

David Lukes

I think absolutely they have. Our cost of capital has gone up both on the equity and the debt side. And so our unlevered IRR expectations have also increased.

I'll just remind you that it depends on the risk level to generate that IRR, but there's no question they've gone up. I'm sure Conor has some commentary as well with respect to how we look at returns relative to our 5-year plan.

Conor Fennerty

Sure. I mean, Todd, as we've discussed on a number of occasions, we look at everything from a 5-year cash flow accretion model in addition to the kind of other traditional REIT metrics. And so if it was accretive to acquire a property today under that calculus, and we thought it was additive to the company, we'd consider it.

To David's point, I would just point out 3 things. We've never adjusted our buy box or characteristics of properties regardless of our share price was higher or lower. And then the second piece is the source and the use are the critical part of the analysis.

So you're right, cost of capital has gone up. But I think just looking at either cost of debt or cost of equity alone, this is out, and the other important piece of the equation, which is what's the going in yield or to David's point, what's the growth profile.

And the last point I would make is, as I mentioned in my comments, we've got over $900 million of immediate liquidity on hand. And so if we were just to invest the remainder of that capital over the course of '26 and '27, we're still in a position to generate well into double-digit growth next year, which is pretty encouraging and speaks to our earlier comments about being flexible and maintaining optionality, which has been our kind of core principle or guiding principle since we completed the spinoff 2 years ago.

Todd Thomas

Okay. And then just thinking about sort of acquisition pace, I guess, and the shared service agreement, does the expiration of the shared service agreement at all play into the desire to achieve greater scale and perhaps some discipline around acquisition activity?

If acquisition pricing doesn't adjust enough to today's cost of capital, would you be comfortable slowing investment activity even if that means entering the standalone structure at maybe a slightly smaller scale than you previously anticipated, just given the current pace of investments that you've been achieving?

Conor Fennerty

So Todd, if you think back to our spin-off timing, we initially put out kind of guidance or a target of $500 million per year, right? And so you think about that would imply about $1.5 billion of total investments from the time of the spinoff to the end of the SSA in October of next year.

We bought $1.7 billion in the first 2 years. So from a scale perspective, we're well past what we expected to be or where we expect it to be, excuse me.

And if you recall, since our spinoff, we've updated our kind of G&A bogey of saying, hey, we thought we could be as efficient as SITE to, we think we could be more efficient in SITE. So whether or not we buy a single property from here, we feel really good about our scale, our positioning, our G&A leverage, et cetera.

In terms of the combat discipline, I would just say, again, we bought $1.7 billion. I think it's only 2 investments have been greater than $50 million, i.e., 2 portfolios greater than $50 million.

So I would just say we've been incredibly disciplined, incredibly focused on making sure we've been buying the right real estate over that period. It might look like a significant number of dollars, but it's all underwritten on an individual basis, which I think is really important.

So again, it kind of dovetails back my response to your first question to David's response to Ron. We've been incredibly disciplined from the start in terms of how we invest capital. I don't expect a higher return hurdle to change that. It just means that we're looking through a different lens.

So -- and then lastly, I think to your question about how we think about the pace of deployment, et cetera, we've got a pipeline that really goes out for the next 2 quarters, and that's been consistent really over the last year plus.

So our visibility on investments and the spread, et cetera, for the initial spread, I should say, for the first -- for the fourth quarter and the first quarter next year is incredibly high. And I think that helps give us a lot of confidence in terms of our growth for next year and deploying capital over the course of 2027.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman with Citi.

Craig Mailman

I don't want to beat a dead horse here on the yield expectations on new acquisitions. But I'm just kind of curious, your commentary on the stickiness of cap rates, I mean, how deep is the buyer pool beyond you guys from sort of a cash buyer perspective that you wouldn't have a little bit more negotiating power to either re-trade your going-in yields higher or be a little bit firmer in setting kind of pricing expectations in a rising rate environment?

David Lukes

It's David. I think that the buyer pool out there for this asset class has been very large for a very long period of time. I mean, there are a significant number of private buyers that are active in the space.

We infrequently run into the same people in bidding tents across the country because there's so few regional, and we're the only national operator, but there's a number of regional operators. But I would say the frequency of running into the same names is pretty low.

And given that we're only buying a certain small percentage of the overall sector, I think you can appreciate that there are a lot of buyers. So whether we behave or act in an aggressive or a conciliatory manner, I think the pricing of the entire sector at large is being priced through by the numerous other transactions where we're not involved.

I think my commentary earlier was that I will freely admit that I think a lot of this subsector is bought by levered local buyers, and therefore, that going-in spread is really important. But there's a pretty substantial group of buyers that are indeed looking at how growthy this property type is.

And because of that, I think unlevered IRR expectations on the one hand, you would expect the math to make cap rates go up substantially with borrowing costs. On the other hand, the reason borrowing costs are going up is because of inflation, and inflation rolls right through to the retailers and how they raise their prices on goods and services, and it affects market rents because replacement cost goes up.

So I'll give you an example. If you look on Page 16 of our stock, you'll see the number of assets that we bought this quarter, and I'll just kind of highlight 2. There's a large group of assets we bought in Los Angeles called Candlewood Shops.

And if you look at the entire rent roll of that property, which is a pretty large group of assets, the average tenure of all those tenants in place is 18 years. Same thing with Lexington Station in Minneapolis. The average tenure is 11 years.

So when you have national credit tenants that have been in a property for 10 or 20 years, the mark-to-market is really substantial. And I think a lot of buyers are less concerned about going-in cap rate, and they're more concerned about the lack of CapEx to generate pretty substantial same-store growth over the next 5 or 10 years.

That's why I think the cap rates are likely to be stickier. But again, it's only been a couple of months since we've been in this environment. And I think we'll see what happens over the next couple of quarters.

Craig Mailman

No, that's helpful. And I guess just from a capital raising perspective, I mean, that doesn't make sense here, most likely. Just from a strategic standpoint of not fatiguing the market or becoming predictable, I guess, just any thoughts on avoiding those 2 kind of pitfalls here as you guys look to keep the pace of deals kind of consistent in '27 and beyond?

Conor Fennerty

Sure, Craig. So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we have just under $900 million of liquidity on hand, and that includes a $150 million term loan that we expect to close in the fourth quarter. That's before retaining cash flow, which is pretty significant relative to our asset base.

On top of that, our entire asset base is unencumbered. We have no maturities until 2029. We expect to end the year with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio call it 2.1, 2.2. So we can be incredibly tactical and look at a variety of funding sources over the course of the year.

Not all of those are available to our peers; not all of those are available to private investors. So I would just tell you, we feel really good about this environment. This is almost tailormade for our platform in terms of how much liquidity we have on hand.

And you're right, we like to be tactical and turn things on and off, whether that's debt, equity, et cetera. But I would just tell you, with $900 million-plus liquidity -- immediate liquidity on hand, I feel like we're in a really good spot on a relative and absolute basis.

I would also come back to my response, I think it's to Todd. Even if we just invested just the cash on hand, we're well into the double digits for next year in terms of earnings growth. And that's before, which I think doesn't get a lot of airtime, the operational growth that David was referring to a moment ago with assets like Candlewood.

So again, just to tie all that together, with that much liquidity relative to our asset base before free cash flow, we feel like we're in a really good spot, particularly given what we think is a pretty steady stream of investment opportunities in front of us.

Craig Mailman

What do you think is the range of borrowing costs for you guys, depending on where you are in the term structure or kind of product type between secured and unsecured?

Conor Fennerty

Yes. So we're about to close, as I mentioned a couple of times, a $150 million term loan in the fourth quarter. If we weren't to swap that, our all-in rate would be about 4.9. We've obviously swapped $100 million of that $150 million and call it the low 5s. So let's just call that product 5.1, 5.2.

I haven't checked the 5-year treasury today, but private placement market, we're about 130 over. So depending on the hour of day we're looking at that, we're anywhere in the high 5s, low 6s.

And that's just 2 options. Again, as I mentioned, again, just a moment ago, we're 100% unencumbered. We have no joint ventures. We've -- I mean, we've just got incredible optionality, which has been our focus and our focus are to maintain since our spinoff.

So again, those are 2 markets just going off the top of my head, but very different types of markets at very different rates. But again, as you've -- kind of your question has alluded to and as David responded to, we're 4 months into a pretty dynamic time, and we'll see how things flesh out over the next, call it, 9 to 12 months.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb

Two questions. First, maybe just picking up that point there. You guys are blessed with a pretty good cost of equity, but you're also kind of talking about debt.

And clearly, debt is what is concerning folks today in the market just given the volatility. So as you think about your capital, are you -- I know that you're closing on a term loan, presumably that was in the works for some time.

But as you think about your capital structure going forward, are you thinking about adding more debt? Or given where interest rates are, your view is just primarily remain heavy on the equity funding, but have debt sort of as an availability, sort of as an undrawn resource, but not really something that you're planning to use?

Conor Fennerty

I would say, Alex, we love optionality, not to beat a dead horse here. But if you think back to our spinoff in our initial business plan, it was to invest the cash and raise some debt over the 5-year period.

And that was what led to double-digit FFO growth and invest $500 million a year. Things have obviously dramatically been different in a positive way since then. We've obviously raised just under $1 billion of equity. We bought over $1.7 billion. We've pivoted because of a different cost of capital.

So I would just tell you, every morning, we wake up, we look at our screens, we look at our menu of options. We look at new options, and we say, at that point in time, based off our uses, what is the best path for us to consider?

And so I know it sounds like an evasive answer, but that will be our kind of our job tomorrow morning is to wake up, look at our screens, see what the best available source is and then compare it to the use, which is critical.

So I wouldn't imply that we'll be more equity-focused or debt focused going forward. I would just tell you, we will pivot based off what the market is -- has available to us based off our uses.

Alexander Goldfarb

Okay. And then, David, you mentioned adjacent properties. Obviously, you guys have a huge pipeline, and I don't know how big these adjacent properties are as far as percentage of deal flow.

But I'm just curious, are these like owned by the same -- are you finding that these are owned by the same sellers, meaning they additionally were monetizing part of their portfolio and now they're monetizing more? Or these are sort of friends that are nearby, and they see that their buddy sold and now they're going to sell?

And I would imagine that as you sort of cluster, the operational synergies go up as far as pricing and rent and being able to optimize tenancy.

So maybe if you could just expand on, one, if this is just a little talking point, or if you see this as a material growth avenue, these adjacent properties? And then two, your thoughts on just given the high retention rates, if there is sort of operational upside or because most tenants renew, it's not like you're going to get that many operational synergies the way we would think at like a shopping center or a mall, et cetera?

David Lukes

Sure, Alex. So I would say that 6 months ago, it was a talking point. Now it's becoming a bit more material, meaning it's a trend that's picked up. The more dense we are in a certain market, we do have tended to just get more opportunities from friends of friends. "We heard you sold to Curbline. Can you give us a number? We'll give them a ring. We're thinking about selling." I mean, that is happening more and more, just word of mouth.

There are also situations where we bought a property from someone and got a right to purchase, basically a first right to purchase, if they ever sold another property nearby, and we've exercised those rights sometimes.

And the third situation would be that someone has a family interest that controls adjacent parcels. One side of the family wants to sell today, the next side of the family may decide to sell 6 months or a year later.

So it's been a variety of reasons, but I would say that as John and I and Conor have been looking at the pipeline and kind of witnessing the dealmakers and what activity they're doing, we've seen this to be a bit more of a trend than it had been last year, and it makes us just remember that having the amount of allocated personnel sourcing deals out in the field is reaping other benefits other than just waiting for a property to hit the market.

So I think that's kind of the important piece is that it's not a -- on its own, it's not meaningful. But when you add it to all of these other arrows in our quiver, we just feel like sourcing deals is becoming easier and easier. And so our confidence level that the volumes can stay high for opportunities is pretty strong.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Floris Van Dijkum with Ladenburg.

Floris Gerbrand Van Dijkum

Congrats on another good quarter. Just wanted to maybe get around to the higher IRR expectation question maybe in a slightly different way.

Obviously, rates have gone up. Cap rates seem to be sticky. That would suggest, if you're buying assets still around the high 5s or low 6 cap rates, that your IRR expectations have increased on some of the properties.

Maybe talk about your early acquisitions. So you've been doing this for a couple of years now. If you look at your first year and look at the returns that you have achieved and the NOI growth you've achieved relative to your early expectations, how has that panned out? And how does that give you confidence as you look forward in additional acquisitions?

David Lukes

It's David. All right. So what's interesting is that we seem to come back frequently to talk about going-in cap rates. But I know that we've discussed many times that there are other important factors to unlevered IRR other than just going-in cap rate.

The going-in cap rates for this asset class have always been from the low 5s to, I would say, the low 7s. I mean, there's a very wide range of going-in cap rates for unanchored strips just depending on the credit quality, the mark-to-market available, kind of the demographics, the shape of the building, the re-leasability of it.

I mean, all these things factor into whether it's a growth asset or whether it's kind of a risky asset. So going-in cap rate is just -- it's very difficult to quantify for an entire sector.

And so I tend to focus more on what we're interested in, and we're interested in growth assets. So to your point, if we look back at the year leading into the spin and the first year after the spin, what happened to our underwriting versus actual?

And I would say we were fairly consistently wrong on mark-to-market in the fact that we were just too conservative. You could either say that we didn't fully appreciate the mark-to-market at the time or it could be that market rents have continued to grow, but we've generally outpaced the renewal spreads and the new leasing spreads from our original budgets. And so I think what you've seen is the unlevered IRRs have been higher than our hurdles were.

The second component is that CapEx has been a little bit less than we had expected. We mentioned that at the spin, we were targeting a less than 10% CapEx load for the entire sector. We're running about 8% over the last few years.

And when you run that 3-year model, a little bit more aggressive on mark-to-market, a little bit better renewal spreads and maybe a 20% reduction in total CapEx, the unlevered IRRs have been really healthy.

And so I do think that our expectations need to increase and reflect the signals we're getting from the market, both on equity and debt. But there are other levers within each underwriting that we can look at pretty carefully and still feel confident that we're making the good long-term decision.

Floris Gerbrand Van Dijkum

Maybe the next question, and I look at your largest market being Atlanta, you got 30 properties, call it, $21 million of ABR. By the way, that's 1/5 of what Simon's Lenox Mall has.

But how much more expansion do you have in your largest market, Atlanta? And then I also noticed, are you also -- I saw the first time some assets in Madison. Are you expanding and selectively picking up some assets in other markets simply because the opportunities are bigger there or because you need to deploy the capital and you feel like you can scale in some of those smaller markets as well?

David Lukes

Yes. I mean, I think we've said in the past that if we could snap our fingers, we would be equal-weighted in the top 30 markets in the U.S. But the reason we say that is primarily from a diversification standpoint.

Specific targets by each submarket don't really exist for us in practice because we're simply underwriting each asset across the country that comes available, and we're a little bit more agnostic as to how that MSA starts to rank up.

Atlanta specifically has just had a lot of growth, a lot of strength, and it's also had a lot of assets that have been available to us. And so we've been a lot more active in Atlanta.

It's also a ring city. And as you know, a ring city tends to have lots of pockets all the way around the city center. And those pockets each are different factors that are available. You can't say that about some other cities that are a bit more linear.

South Florida is different, right? And so you've got just less geography to work with than some of the larger cities. I just lost the second half of your question. Yes, it was...

Floris Gerbrand Van Dijkum

Moving to Madison.

David Lukes

Yes, I mean, moving into other cities that we see strong demographics and we see opportunities to come available, we're open-minded to it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

Michael Mueller

Two operating questions. First, I guess, given the heightened focus on the consumer these days, can you talk a little bit about how you're viewing tenant health and kind of bad debt going forward?

And the second question is with the commentary about SNO coming online. Outside of like acquisition mix impact, where do you think the 94.5% economic occupancy could go to by the end of '27?

Conor Fennerty

Sure. It's Conor. On credit, we haven't seen over the course of the year change. It hasn't come up in a lot of our calls, but I think -- I don't think -- our placeholder for the year has been about 60 basis points of uncollected revenue, and we've been running just under that.

There has been an uptick in national bankruptcies you've seen with Sleep Number and Leslie's Pool Supplies and a couple on the anchor side as well. And you've seen a little bit of pain on the entertainment side of late in the credit markets.

But for us, we have not seen a material change in AR, aged AR or renewal rates. So as I mentioned at the start of my answer, 60 basis points has been a placeholder, and there isn't a change in that going into the fourth quarter.

In terms of the SNO pipeline and the gap between the kind of lease-occupied spread, and we said a couple of times before, if we're 96.5% leased, it feels like, Mike, 150 basis points or 100 basis points is probably a good spread in terms of that lease-occupied gap just given it's a shorter timeline to sign a lease and get it commenced, unlike some of the more purpose-built retail formats.

So from a percentage lease perspective, I would look at that way. The challenge is percent of lease and dollars won't line up. And so I do think using the SNO dollars as a ramp as opposed to lease-occupied gap is a better way to kind of model it out over the next 3 quarters.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Truist.

Linda Tsai

Do you have a sense of how bifurcated the market is in terms of buyers, whether they're levered or all cash? And maybe if you don't, just in terms of what you've seen in the deals that you've done?

David Lukes

It's David. I really don't have a statistically good and accurate response. I mean, we get imperfect information. But as you know, we've looked at a lot of deals, and we bought a pretty large number of deals.

So we do get some anecdotal information. I would say the traditional mortgage borrower is a lot more focused on kind of flatter assets with a higher yield. And so we tend to not bump into them very frequently.

On the higher quality unanchored, it is a lot more common for folks to use debt if they're private. But I would say a lot of times that debt appears to be sourced through private wealth networks and other types of financings, not a traditional mortgage.

So I think their all-in borrowing rates tend to be lower than if they did a nonrecourse debt piece.

Linda Tsai

And I'm sorry...

David Lukes

I certainly think we're the only -- Linda, I certainly think we're the only effectively unlevered or all-cash buyer, but there are other ones that have a similar appearance.

Linda Tsai

And then sorry if I missed this earlier. What is the retention rate in your portfolio? And is there a view of what this could grow to?

Conor Fennerty

We don't report on a quarterly basis, Linda. I don't have the number off the top of my head. My guess is I think I want to say for our nationals, it's the low 90s over the last 5 years. And to my response to Mike a moment ago about credit, we really haven't seen a change in that retention rate, albeit there has been an uptick from a very low base of bankruptcies, as I mentioned a moment ago.

Linda Tsai

On the uptick in bankruptcies, do you view it as seasonal? Or is it kind of growing into '27? Does it have to relate -- does it relate to higher interest rates at all?

Conor Fennerty

No, it's a good question. I mean, it feels like if you rewind back to 2017, '18, there was a little more seasonality to bankruptcies there was, I would say, call it, 10-plus years ago. It feels like it's a little less seasonal today, but there haven't been that many.

And by me saying there's been an uptick in bankruptcies, I'm not saying in our portfolio, I'm just saying in the kind of national retail space. It does feel like it's the kind of COVID winners who then became losers, i.e., pool, entertainment-focused that are the kind of recent headlines of sorts. We really have had no exposure. But again, it does feel like an uptick, albeit from a very, very low base.

As we look into 2027, I would imagine, yes, the credit markets will -- if they remain tighter, will definitely have an impact. Again, there's no one on our watch list that is of scale and that's purposeful, right, that we've got on our list that we're worried about in '27.

But I would have to think if GDP growth slows and/or the credit markets continue to tighten, that would have an impact on the retail environment overall for us.

Just given our payback period on our leasing, our diversification of credit, again, it feels like it's a real relative win for us. But there's nothing on our radar that's jumping out to us. It's just an observation based off economic growth in the credit markets.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to David Lukes for closing remarks.

David Lukes

Thank you all for joining our call, and we'll speak to you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.