ドーバー（DOV）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：受注16％増、ガイダンスを上方寄りに絞り込み

Dover Corporation（NYSE: DOV）は2026年度第3四半期決算を発表し、オーガニック成長の加速、幅広い事業での受注モメンタム、およびフリーキャッシュフローの増加を示した。経営陣は通期の業績予想レンジを従来予想の上限付近に絞り込み、2027年に向けた見通しの確実性を高める要因として受注残高の35%増を挙げた。

主なポイント

• 第3四半期のオーガニック売上高成長率は7%に加速し、調整後EPSは前年同期比10%増の2.88ドルとなった。
• 全5セグメントで受注が16%増加し、四半期のブック・ツー・ビル比率（BBレシオ）は1.03となった。受注残高は前年同期比で35%増加し、その約半分は2027年に出荷予定となっている。
• 気候・サステナビリティ・テクノロジーズ部門が、データセンター向け液冷用熱交換器やCO2冷媒システムによる過去最高の四半期売上高に支えられ、18%増とセグメント成長を牽引した。
• 第3四半期のフリーキャッシュフローは売上高の17%に相当する3億8,300万ドルに達した。年初からの累計フリーキャッシュフローは前年同期比7,200万ドル増の7億300万ドルとなった。
• ドーバーは通期業績予想を、オーガニック成長率5%〜6%、調整後EPS 10.60〜10.75ドルに絞り込んだ。
• 同社は第3四半期中に3億3,000万ドル以上の自社株買いを実施し、年初来では約4億ドルに達した。経営陣は、短期的な資本配分は引き続き株主還元を重視する姿勢を示した。

主な財務データ

事業および業績ハイライト

ドーバーによると、長期成長市場が売上高に占める割合は2024年の18%から25%以上に拡大した。これらの市場には、エネルギー転換および発電、CO2システム、データセンター、エネルギー・宇宙用途向け極低温コンポーネントが含まれる。

気候・サステナビリティ・テクノロジーズは18%のオーガニック成長を達成した。地域やエンドマーケット全体でプレート式ブレージング熱交換器の需要が引き続き堅調で、特にデータセンター向けの液冷需要が牽引した。ドーバーは2027年までに大型熱交換器の世界的な生産能力を倍増させる投資を進めている。

CO2冷媒システムは四半期として過去最高の売上高を記録した。バージニア州リッチモンド工場の生産性は改善し、ラインの出荷レートは第2四半期を15%上回った。熱交換器の高い収益性がCO2システム、特殊ケース、冷蔵扉付きケースの同時立ち上げに伴うコストで相殺され、セグメント利益率は18%となった。

食品小売事業では、生産投資、追加人員、2拠点運用による二重の固定費関連で、年初来約4,000万ドルのコストを吸収した。ドーバーは当四半期中、カリフォルニア州シルマーにおけるドアフレーム生産の集約を完了した。

クリーンエネルギー・フューエリングはオーガニックベースで12%成長した。成長を牽引したのはクリーンエネルギー用部品、流体輸送、およびここ数年で最高の四半期実績を記録した北米の給油インフラ事業である。LNGおよび宇宙ロケット打ち上げインフラ向けの極低温部品の需要も堅調を維持した。利益率は生産立ち上げコストが数量効果を相殺したため、ほぼ横ばいとなった。

イメージング・アイデンティフィケーションは、シリアル管理ソフトウェアの2桁成長とマーキング・コーディング需要の堅調さに牽引され、2%のオーガニック成長を記録した。営業利益率は、操業度によるレバレッジ、ソフトウェアの成長、地域ミックス、および為替換算効果に支えられ、400ベーシスポイント拡大して33%となった。

パンプス＆プロセス・ソリューションズはオーガニックベースで1%成長した。AIおよびエネルギーインフラ、シングルユース（使い捨て）バイオ医薬品、産業用ポンプの好調が、ポリマー加工設備の需要減退を補った。産業用ポンプおよび精密部品の増益効果に加え、バイオ医薬品の構成比が高まったことで、利益率は70ベーシスポイント上昇し34%となった。

エンジニアド・プロダクツはオーガニックベースで2%減少した。航空宇宙・防衛向け部品の強い需要があったものの、欧州での自動車サービス関連の減収に相殺された。利益率は良好な製品ミックスとコスト管理により安定を維持した。

ドーバーは、給油インフラ、極低温部品、米国向け流量計、アジア向けシングルユースバイオ医薬品部品、宇宙用高周波機器、プリンター・インク生産、特殊ケース、大型熱交換器の新生産能力への投資を継続した。多くのプロジェクトは2027年第1四半期末までに稼働を開始する見込みである。

同社は8月にクローレン（Cloeren）の買収を完了し、ライシュトゥング（Leistung）の買収案件は第4四半期に完了する見込みである。クローレンにより押出金型、フィードブロック、および30万平方フィートを超える米国の製造能力が加わる。ライシュトゥングはインドにおける極低温部品の製造能力を提供する。

経営陣の業績予想（ガイダンス）

ドーバーは2026年通期の見通しを従来予想の上限付近に絞り込んだ：

経営陣は、歴史的に同社にとって最も現金創出力が高い第4四半期において、フリーキャッシュフローがさらに増加すると予想している。

2027年に向けて、経営陣は受注残高、構造改革による費用削減、買収の寄与、株式数の減少、および食品小売事業の移行コスト削減の見込みを支援要因として挙げた。ドーバーは2027年の正式な財務予想を公表しなかったものの、気候・サステナビリティ・テクノロジーズの利益率は大幅に改善する見込みであり、前年比での利益率改善は第1四半期から始まると述べた。

リスクと注視点

• 生産能力の制約により、熱交換器、極低温製品、給油インフラ市場の一部でリードタイムが長期化している。新規能力の追加には先行投資が必要であり、稼働率が向上するまでは利益率を押し下げる可能性がある。
• 第4四半期の出荷タイミングは、顧客が年末の運転資本の調整を行う12月のデリバリー指示（コールオフ）に一部依存する。
• 食品小売における立ち上げコストは、生産性と固定費の吸収が改善する年末にかけて増加し続けると見込まれている。需要（取扱量）が維持されることを前提として、経営陣は移行が2027年第1四半期末までに概ね完了すると予想している。
• ドーバーは、コモディティおよびその他の原価要素への暴露（リスク）に対応するため、2027年に向けて一部の価格引き上げ処置を前倒しで実施した。SWEPにおける銅のリスクは、サプライヤー契約の価格設定メカニズムに組み込まれている。
• 競合他社も生産能力を拡大しているため、経営陣はデータセンター需要の継続期間に関する不確実性を認めたが、ドーバーは現在の受注残高が同社の投資計画を支えていると述べた。
• 受注から出荷までの期間が短い従来の短サイクル事業では、引き続き見通しの確実性が相対的に低い。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

受注残高と2027年の見通し：経営陣によると、生産能力が制約されている市場の顧客が早期に供給枠を確保しているため、受注残高は通常より高水準となっている。受注残高は従来の長サイクル事業よりも、主にCO2システムおよびSWEP熱交換器に集中している。またドーバーは、ポリマー加工機器や製缶機器が現在の低い水準から回復すれば、上振れの可能性があると見ている。

気候・サステナビリティ部門の利益率：経営陣は2027年の利益率上昇幅の数値化は避けたものの、「大幅な改善」になると述べた。拠点の重複コスト削減、生産ラインの安定化、過剰人員の削減、および増収に伴う固定費の吸収により改善が見込まれる。

データセンター向け冷却装置の生産能力：ドーバーはSWEPの主要なデータセンター製品ラインの生産能力を増強しており、将来的に中央冷却システムから冷媒分配ユニット（CDU）への製品ミックスの移行を見込んでいる。生産は高度に自動化されており技術的難易度が高いため、生産能力に関する意思決定は約18ヶ月前に行う必要があると経営陣は説明した。

資本配分：ドーバーは補完的（ボルトオン）な買収に引き続き積極的だが、リターン基準は維持する。経営陣は、自社投資によるオーガニックプロジェクトが買収と同等の売上成長を生み出す可能性があるとし、当面は株主還元を優先する姿勢をあらためて強調した。

給油インフラサイクル：地下タンク設備の供給制約により、設備投資サイクルが長期化していると経営陣は述べた。ドーバーは現在、従来の3年という見通しに対し、このサイクルが少なくとも4年間続く可能性があると考えている。

金利影響：金利上昇が設備投資計画関連の事業に影響を与えているかという質問に対し、経営陣は影響は見られないと回答した。

決算説明会（トランスクリプト）全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Dover's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Executive -- Chief Executive Officer; Chris Woenker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jack Dickens, Vice President, Investor Relations. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with this term, please disconnect at this time. Thank you.

I would now like to turn our call over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead, sir.

Jack Dickens

Thank you, Leslie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through November 12, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days.

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

Richard Tobin

Thanks. Jack. Good morning, everyone. Let's get started on Slide 3. Overall, it was a solid quarter. Organic growth accelerated to 7%, led by our secular growth markets and supported by durable demand across the majority of the portfolio. Bookings were the highlight in the quarter. Orders were up 16% year-over-year, with growth in all 5 segments. Book-to-bill was 1.03 for the quarter. Our backlog is up 35% versus this time last year, which supports our confidence in the forecast and provides very good momentum heading into 2027.

Adjusted EPS was $2.88 per share, up 10% in the quarter. We remain active on the capital -- on capital deployment, announcing 2 bolt-on acquisitions that add complementary capabilities, low-cost manufacturing and geographic breadth to our businesses. We also repurchased over $330 million of our shares in the quarter. We are narrowing our full year guidance towards the upper end of the range, with organic growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted EPS and from $10.60 to $10.75 per share, representing double-digit growth consistent with our long-term algorithm.

Let's go to Slide 5. Our secular growth markets now represent over 25% of our total revenue, up from 18% in 2024. Across the top of the slide, we show our expected growth rates in each of these markets this year. In total, these markets are a material driver of our overall revenue growth in 2026, and we expect that trend to continue in 2027. We have purposely built these platforms through R&D spending and new product development in our legacy businesses as well as through targeted M&A.

Our business model is unique. It allows us to pursue a variety of high-growth business opportunities across a range of secular themes, with several of our businesses participating in more than one. We have been able to deliver this growth by proactively adding capacity in advance to the market, which has allowed us to capture leadership positions. This has been particularly important in energy transition and power generation, CO2 systems, data centers and cryogenic components serving the energy and space markets. We have continued to invest in additional capacity in 2026 behind this demand strength, some of which we will detail in a subsequent slide.

These organic and inorganic investments have delivered high returns on invested capital despite the proactive upfront investments as the result -- as a result of high growth rates and margin profiles of these sectors. These businesses are technically demanding mission-critical applications where Dover tends to win. The vast majority of our acquisition capital over the past 5 years has been deployed in these markets, and they remain our top priorities from both an organic and inorganic investment.

Going to Slide 6. This slide underscores the breadth and duration of our order book. Trailing 12-month bookings were up 16%, well ahead of revenue growth at 8, and trailing book-to-bill has climbed to 1.08. Every segment has grown bookings faster than revenue over the past 12 months. That sustained order momentum has underpinned the top line acceleration we are seeing in 2026, and it gives us confidence in our outlook going forward. Importantly, our backlog is 35% higher than it was at this point last year and is up sequentially from Q2, with roughly half scheduled to ship in 2027. That gives us a solid foundation heading into next year with revenue visibility well ahead of where we would expect to be at this point in the planning cycle.

Moving to Slide 7. Engineered Products was down 2% organically. Demand for aerospace and defense components remained strong, was more than offset by lower volumes in European vehicle services. Margin was stable on favorable mix and cost controls.

Clean Energy & Fueling grew 12% organically, with solid shipments in new orders in clean energy components, fluid transport and North American retail fueling, which posted its strongest quarter in years. Demand for our cryogenic components in LNG and space launch infrastructure remains healthy, with several recent high-profile project wins. Margin was roughly flat as volume leverage was offset by production ramp in cryogenic product lines where demand is running ahead of capacity. We're actively expanding that capacity with additional output coming online in the first quarter of 2027.

Imaging & ID grew 2% organically, led by double-digit growth in serialization software and solid performance in core marking and coding. Consumables and equipment margins expanded 400 basis points to 33%, driven by volume leverage on largely fixed cost base and software growth in consumables, favorable geographic mix and foreign currency translation.

Pumps & Process Solutions grew 1% organically, with growth in AI and energy infrastructure, single-use biopharma and industrial pumps that was partially offset by lower volumes in polymer processing equipment where quoting activity is high. Margin expanded 70 basis points to 34% and solid conversion in industrial pumps and precision components and a higher mix of biopharma revenue.

Climate & Sustainability Technologies accelerated to 18% organic growth in the quarter. Shipments and order rates in brazed plate heat exchanges remain robust across all geographies and major end markets, with notable strength in liquid cooling for data centers which is initially concentrated in the U.S., but we are now seeing meaningful acceleration in Europe and Asia. Lead times remain extended and we are actively investing to double our global capacity for large heat exchanges through 2027.

CO2 refrigeration systems posted quarterly revenue -- posted record quarterly revenue with September reaching its highest output of the year in refrigerated door cases. The investments that we have added in Richmond, Virginia facility are ramping up. Line rates exiting third quarter were 15% higher than the second quarter. We expect another sequential increase in line rates and output in the fourth quarter. We also completed the consolidation of the door frame production in Sylmar, California at the end of the quarter.

Segment margin was 18%. Margins in heat exchanges were robust as volumes outrun the significant investments in capacity build. With direct labor, less than 10% of its cost base, this business converts incremental volume exceptionally well. Those gains in heat exchangers were offset by cost of ramping production simultaneously across CO2 systems, specialty cases and refrigerator door cases ahead of higher demand and shipment rates in 2027, which is reflected in our backlog. Heat exchangers should continue to benefit from [ via ] leverage in 2027, with a good portion of Q1 revenue already in backlog.

In food retail, we have absorbed roughly $40 million of costs year-to-date from investments and extra labor costs associated with the production ramp along with duplicate fixed costs of running 2 facilities for the throughput of 1. As line rates continue to ramp and as the roll-off of fixed cost accelerates through the balance of the year, margins in Climate & Sustainability Technologies are poised to improve meaningfully in 2027.

I'll pass it over to Chris.

Christopher Woenker

Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. Let's go to our cash flow statement on Slide 8. Year-to-date, free cash flow was $703 million or 11% of revenue, up $72 million over the prior year, driven primarily by increased operating cash conversion which more than offset working capital investments to support accelerating top line growth. Third quarter free cash flow was $383 million or 17% of revenue. We've taken up our full year CapEx guide for the year to reflect the organic investments we're making behind demand strength. Free cash flow accelerated in the third quarter, consistent with historical trends, and we expect a further increase in the fourth quarter, which is historically our highest cash-generating quarter. Our full year free cash flow guidance remains on track at 14% to 16% of revenue.

With that, let me turn it back to Rich.

Richard Tobin

Okay. I'm on Slide 9. Organic investment remains our highest return use of capital. On the left are our most meaningful projects. In support of our organic revenue trajectory, we have greenfield expansions underway in below ground retail fueling, cryogenic components, flow meters in the U.S. and single-use biopharma components in Asia, along with capacity investments in radio frequency equipment for space, printer and ink production and specialty cases in CO2 systems and large heat exchanges. Many of these projects will be online by the end of the first quarter of 2027.

On the productivity side, we are optimizing our vehicle services footprint, extracting synergies from our polymer processing acquisition and have now completed the footprint consolidation in food retail. These actions generate substantial carryover restructuring benefits which we will quantify when we provide full year guidance in January.

On the right side of the slide are the bolt-on acquisitions we announced in the quarter. Cloeren, which we closed in August, adds extrusion dies and feedblocks to our mag polymer processing platform, along with more than 300,000 square feet of U.S. manufacturing capacity close to the U.S. petrochemical and space launch infrastructure.

Leistung, which we signed and expect to close in the fourth quarter, gives our Clean Energy segment a low-cost state-of-the-art cryogenics components manufacturing presence in India. Both businesses carry excess capacity that other Dover operating companies will leverage its manufacturing hubs in highly strategic locations.

Moving to Slide 10. Our balance sheet remains a competitive advantage and our capital allocation priorities are unchanged. Organic investment generates our highest returns, and we are guiding full year CapEx of $200 million to $220 million, with the capacity and productivity projects I just covered delivering attractive returns into next year. We have committed approximately $80 million to our 2 announced acquisitions. And our pipeline remains active for bolt-on opportunities in high priority markets. We have also repurchased approximately $400 million of shares year-to-date, including $330 million in the third quarter, with over $3 billion of dry powder at quarter end. We have the ample flexibility to play offensive capital allocation and a near-term bias towards returning capital to shareholders.

Let's finish with Slide 11. We are moving our full year guidance towards the upper end of the range. Our focus is on finishing the year strong, and our order book gives us confidence in the forecast with momentum carrying into 2027. Alongside a constructive demand backdrop and a strong order book, we will benefit from carryover restructuring savings contributions from completed acquisitions, a lower share count and a roll-off of transition costs in food retail. We look forward to closing out the year strong and are confident as we enter 2027 from a position of strength.

Over to you, Jack.

Jack Dickens

Leslie, we can go right to the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Steve Tusa with Wells Fargo.

質疑応答

Charles Stephen Tusa

Just on the backlog, I think it's like a little bit above $3 billion now, I kind of like go back, do the math. And I think you said 50% of that is like shippable for next year. Is there anything in kind of the non-backlog business that you look out to next year that you would be like worried about being unsustainable or dropping off at all?

Richard Tobin

I'd characterize it this way. I guess, where we have been capacity constrained is what's driving the backlog into 2027. So the duration of the demand is a good indicator because customers are basically getting in line to reserve that capacity.

It is not overly influenced from some of our more traditional long-cycle businesses. Maag's pretty much as a bottom, same with Belvac. So it's not -- those numbers aren't influenced by those 2 businesses. So that's actually upside the backlog build as we go into 2027. And then our traditional short-cycle businesses, we don't have a lot of visibility going into next year, and we'll just book and ship as we normally do between now and the end of the year.

Charles Stephen Tusa

Right. And is there any reason for the growth to like slow materially in 4Q? I know you kind of like guided that number. The midpoint is a bit of a slowing. Like anything stand out? I mean the orders have been pretty good, book-to-bill above 1 seasonally.

Richard Tobin

Yes, not really, other than the fact that Q4 is not always in our control, right? We've got the orders, we can make the orders, then it becomes a question at the end of the year whether those orders get called off by our customers or does everybody play a kind of managing the working capital gain at the end of the year. So we're always a little bit cautious because December could go almost either way in any given year. But there's nothing based on the trajectory that we see that's any slowing. It's pure calendarization.

Charles Stephen Tusa

Okay. One more. Just on the buyback you've done, $300 million or something like that. Are you done with that? Or is there still some of that -- you have a ton of cash, ton of capacity is -- can you [ queue ] through some of that?

Richard Tobin

Yes. I think in corporate speak, what we said is that our bias was still on capital return. So take that for what it is.

Charles Stephen Tusa

Great. I don't understand all corporate speak, but that's pretty clear. So I appreciate that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe

Maybe, Rich, could you just kind of give us a little kind of sense on the dual cost you called out, I think, $40 million of investment and deal cost that's now behind us. Maybe give us a sense on how you see CST margins in the fourth quarter, but more importantly, going into 2027. And you've said 20% margin target in the past for that segment. Are we on track for that in 2028?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Just for clarity's sake, it's the year-to-date headwind costs of the plant closure and the redundant labor that we've had to run as a result of that. And that's year-to-date, okay? So that number will actually probably go up between now and the end of the year because as line rates come up, we'll absorb that extra labor and then we'll begin to flip it over into productivity. So that's the $40 million.

Yes. I mean I think that we're well on track of meeting the targets that we put on that sector because of 2 things. Number one, that the carryover of not having those costs of consolidation between the 2 years is an add back. The volume across the segment goes up, and so the incremental margin of the fixed cost goes up along with it. So I think that's why I said that we can expect a material change in 2027 in the margin of that particular segment.

Nigel Coe

But no numbers?

Richard Tobin

Come on, Nigel. We're going to give you guidance when we get to the end of the year, but it's material.

Nigel Coe

Okay. You've said 20% of the past. I'm just trying to get a sense on that. But maybe -- can we just talk about the PPS orders -- sorry, not PPS, CST orders? Been strong for a long time now, no sign of slowdown. I'm just wondering maybe if you can just like try and give us another sort of second level detail on SWEP versus CO2 versus core refrigeration.

And I do want to get a sense on one number, Rich, 3% growth in data center this year is impressive. But I would think it'd be even more impressive just given the growth in the market. And I'm wondering if there's any capacity constraints within SWEP that maybe gets released in 2027?

Richard Tobin

Well, yes. I mean I think that if you go on the slide of our capital investments and if you go back and read the transcript of what I said, yes, we've been capacity constrained all year. It doesn't seem to be preventing the actual build-outs, but everybody is trying to get in front of securing the supply. So there's a lot of signaling effect in there. But we are basically ramping to double capacity into the main product line that's been growing. This is SWEP now, that's been sent into data centers. That will change over time because there'll be a shift between the central cooling system demand, which we see it now, into more CDU mix into the future, and we're taking that into consideration.

In terms of the backlog, I don't want to say 50-50, but it's dominated by CO2 systems demand and SWEP.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird.

Michael Halloran

So back to the backlog question on some level, what's the normal conversion ratio at this point? You have your backlog shippable next year. What does that normally look like? And maybe any thoughts on the lead times you're seeing in the industry and if those are starting to extend?

Richard Tobin

It is higher than average that we would see at this time. I said if we go back and read the transcripts, we would expect in a kind of, let's call it, a normal year, for book-to-bill to come down in Q3 just because of the order of magnitude of shipments. But because of the secular growth nature of some of these businesses that we're in, that customers in certain segments are securing supply, so trying to secure capacity, and so that they're ordering well in advance of what we would normally expect. And that's why we gave you the backlog figures, and that's why we tried to monetize how much of that is 2027 because that, in general terms, would not look like that except for the pace of the growth rate in some of those segments.

Michael Halloran

That makes sense. And on the buyback side, M&A side, obviously, it certainly makes sense that you're pushing more on the capital return time short term. But maybe what's just happening on the M&A side of things? Are you getting priced out of deals at this point? Has the activity slowed? Maybe just some thoughts there.

Richard Tobin

Yes. I mean the activity naturally slows in Q4. Very little comes to the market at the end of the year. So whatever has come to market is -- has come to market not to get into certain deals. Look, we've got return criteria that we stick to. So there are some things that we didn't get that we would have liked to get, but the purchase price that those assets sold forward above that criteria at the end of the day.

We'll see in 2027, but we've got a ton on our plate of organic investment, which is probably going to drive as much revenue growth as kind of bolt-on acquisitions would do. So we retain a posture of optionality, meaning that we'll participate in M&A. We've got some interesting stuff in the pipeline. But with all the cash that we're producing that we carried into this year and all the cash that we're going to produce this year, that clearly -- that our stance is now on capital return.

Operator

Our next question is from Joe O'Dea from Vertical Research.

Joseph O'Dea

Could you talk a little bit about pricing and what might be in the pipeline just with respect to the inflationary backdrop? It looked like the price this quarter was pretty similar to the second quarter, maybe a little bit tougher comp. But are you out there in the market and you need to do anything more on the pricing side -- to carryover into next year?

Richard Tobin

Yes, it depends, Joe. I mean we are actually have moved up pricing decisions this year and have been introducing pricing, which in a kind of a stable year of a low inflation environment, we'd kind of wait till the beginning of the year. We've actually accelerated that in certain instances depending on exposure to a variety of different things, whether it's commodity group metals or other things. So I think we're on the front foot of getting ahead of what anybody's view about price cost is going into '27. I think we're actually probably a full quarter in front of getting in front of that.

Joseph O'Dea

And then just another one on the food retail and the production ramp costs. As you think about full year being somewhere above 40, how much of that we can think about as being nonrepeat? Is there a carryover associated with it? Or do you think that those are all kind of contained costs that you'll be able to leverage...

Richard Tobin

It will -- so the speed is coming down as the volumes go up, right, you get the fixed cost absorption benefit. The balance of it is productivity. So it's just winding out kind of extra labor costs as you stabilize the line rates. So we would expect that to progressively get better over the balance of the year and then probably finish up by the end of Q1. But I don't expect the 40 or whatever it ends up being at the end of this year flows through in total going into next year unless volume drops. And based on our backlog right now, we've seen no indication of volume dropping in 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

Steven Winoker

What -- Rich, what happens in retail fueling when prices -- when fuel prices are up this much? Does that create a little bit more cash flow for these guys to invest in their businesses? Seems like that -- it's been a while since we've had a big jump like this. But what does $6 diesel and $4 dollar gas do for these folks?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Not to talk about our customers' profitability, which -- many of which are publicly traded. At the end of the day, earnings spread on fueling products have been up substantially over the past 18 to 24 months, and I don't expect that to narrow. The better news -- so that's great. We like healthy customers that are making a lot of money, number one. And number two, the good part of what we've seen about the CapEx is there is supply constraints in that particular market, and that is just lengthening the duration of what we believe the demand cycle is. So we knew we were coming into a CapEx cycle for a variety of different reasons. We now believe that, that is going to extend. I think we called it out 1.5 years ago, it was a 3-year cycle. It's probably going to -- we could probably argue it's going to be at least 4.

Scott Davis

And is that an area where you're able to get price because of that supply chain dislocation?

Richard Tobin

It's -- in terms of the amount of market participants, it is a market that we like.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

Andrew Kaplowitz

Rich, so DII margin, I think, was the best margin that segment is recorded. I know you mentioned mix productivity effects, but I think you've been working on structural cost actions in that segment. So when you think about DII's margins even more sustainable, closer to Q3 rates, or maybe was that more of a one-time bump?

Richard Tobin

Look, I look at year-to-date at the end of the day because it's our most global business, there's a lot running through that, that some of our other businesses don't have to deal with specialty FX and then mix because of the disproportionate difference in margin between the consumables and the equipment. So it will move around for that.

Having said that, if you go back and take a look over a 3- to 5-year period, we've steadily marched up the margin in that business through a variety of different measures. We're making some pretty significant investments. We built a brand-new plant in Poland this past year, and we're going to finish up on basically rebuilding our ink production in 2027, so we expect some productivity to come out of that. So yes, I mean, I wouldn't get all excited about the quarters -- this quarter's margin. But if you look at it on a year-to-date basis, that's entirely sustainable.

Andrew Kaplowitz

That's great. And maybe a similar question on Clean Energy & Fueling. If I look at Q3 year-over-year margin, it's a little bit more difficult than the first half. I know you talked about cryo space production ramp impacting margin. But maybe update us some of the platform you created in that business, that journey, I think you talked about the 25% margin. Where is that?

Richard Tobin

Look, we're tracking there, but we've been -- the opportunities that we found on the cryo side over the past 18 months, which is driving the top line, is requiring a lot of investment on our part. So that has got a little bit of a dilutive effect, but we'll take that trade-off any day, right? Because it's driving the top line and they are -- these are businesses with secular growth that once we go through the build phase, we can expect what we saw in SWEP over the last couple of years where we had margins that were down because investment was running forward than the revenue.

Now we've got the revenue in SWEP and so the incremental margin is robust. We'd expect that same kind of trajectory. And that's the reason that we put that slide in about all the organic investments that we're making is, it's not only to kind of explain what we think about the durability of the revenue increase, but it's to give you a signal of we're going to invest here, there's some cost of making those investments. But we believe, over time, the return on invested capital there will be excellent.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

We will move to our next question. Our next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with UBS.

Amit Mehrotra

Just maybe one quick one. SWEP lead times. Last time I checked in, they were like 25 weeks. Is that still the case? And I think that's where most of your copper exposure is, obviously, copper has come off a little bit, but sort of hit all-time highs in September. I think you have material pass-through on that. So no issue on price cost. Maybe you can enlighten me on that. But maybe there's a margin issue as copper rises in that business? Maybe you can talk about those 2 things?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Let's deal with copper first. I think that it is -- and we do have copper exposure there, but it's built into the pricing mechanism with our supplier contracts in SWEP. I don't know what lead times are off the top of my head. I mean, we're bringing on additional capacity sequentially through the year, but with a pretty big jump this quarter going into Q1, then it becomes a big debate of well, but the lead times keep going out because the orders keep coming in, in advance of that capacity build. Does that wind down in '27? Hard to say. Right now, we don't see it, but we are bringing on more capacity because the fact that we believe in the durability of the demand.

Amit Mehrotra

But it's not measured in years, it's measured in quarters, right?

Richard Tobin

Yes, yes. No, no, we're not -- it's not in years.

Amit Mehrotra

So I guess just my follow-up question, my clarifying question then. If I think about quarterly order in dollar terms over the last 3 quarters. So this year, sort of averaged $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion depending on the quarter. That's about 9%, 10% higher than the average quarterly revenue of this year. I'm sure you're going to tell me to curb my enthusiasm, but is that the wrong way to think about maybe the organic growth opportunity next year?

Richard Tobin

Let me answer it this way. We've given your book-to-bill. Against my own advice, we gave you the number of the backlog increase to get into the high-level math when you don't know what the duration is of the timing of those orders is a fool's game. I'm sure Jack can give you all kinds of clarifying questions, but I can't go there right now.

Amit Mehrotra

I guess that was my question about lead times, right?

Richard Tobin

Yes, yes. Look, I mean we're not losing share because of lead times, right? Because generally speaking, we're in very concentrated markets from a supply base. So those who bring on the capacity proactively tend to win, and that's why we've been investing in advance of some of this demand to the detriment of margins, by the way. But it's -- but they end up being good investments once they roll over and absorb the fixed cost. So we can see that in SWEP right now.

Operator

Our next question is from Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

David Ridley-Lane

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew. Clean Energy & Fueling, there's a comment that you're planning a greenfield expansion and below-ground retail fueling. I know that there is a regulatory or replacement cycle there for underground tanks, but adding capacity expansion suggests that you think this is kind of a multiyear durable cycle. Is that the right interpretation?

Richard Tobin

Yes. I think I answered it a minute ago to Scott. The -- there is capacity constraints and underground equipment to become into compliance on tanks. And that -- and because there's capacity -- by the way, we don't supply. But what that is doing is lengthening the duration of the demand because you can't get the tanks to do the work, right? What we're expanding in is all of the products that are around that where we see robust demand and our margins are quite good. So that's the way I would answer it.

David Ridley-Lane

And just a quick follow-up. Have you been hearing any impact from higher interest rates from any of your more capital planning type businesses? Is that something that's pulled up to your level?

Richard Tobin

None.

David Ridley-Lane

That's very clear.

Operator

Our next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

Joseph Ritchie

So Rich, look, the Slide 9 is great, right, gives you a lot of detail on your capacity expansions, organic investments, et cetera. I guess the question I have is as you -- as we're getting closer and closer to 2027, like how much does this set you up for growth beyond '27 based on what you know today? Or do you think there's going to possibly be additional capacity expansion beyond what you've already announced?

Richard Tobin

Well, I hope we have additional capacity expansion, but the capacities that we are laying in are for multiyear, especially the greenfields, right? I mean we're building -- greenfield is like building a new site, and we would never capacitize a new site for the next 12 months unless -- because you never get the return on capital there. So they're all -- have been sized on the initial investment for a multiyear duration. So in a way, if we have the same slide again next year and there are additional capacity on top of it, it's a great sign because it's just more demand than we've sized the initial investment. So right now, these investments we believe that we can capture our share of the market of the growth rates that I think that we showed you on Slide 5.

Joseph Ritchie

Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. And then going back to the question earlier about the $40 million and the $40 million potentially going higher as the year progresses. I guess, quick math, right, taking a look at your revenue year-to-date in CST, it's like -- that equates like roughly 300 basis points, if I'm doing the math right. So I guess the question I have is you get into 2027, like when would you expect to see a turn in CST margins and starting to -- obviously, you've been taking on these extra costs throughout the year and will continue. But I'm just curious when you would expect to be a turn based on what you know today?

Richard Tobin

I think that we will beat our comp in Q1.

Operator

Our next question is from Andrew Buscaglia with BNP Paribas.

Andrew Buscaglia

If you could -- just kind of tying this all together, I get -- sort of get the sense -- your outlook for '27 or your confidence in '27 has improved in the last few months. I mean just based on some of these higher-growth markets and like the visibility you have. Am I right in that, that's the core reason you're kind of sounding better on '27 or sounding positive on '27 or -- or Slide 6 sort of suggests like your underlying just kind of core markets are seeing some improvements cyclically. So I guess where is more of the confidence coming from? Is that high-growth stuff or like that core business?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Well, I mean, the slides are put in there for a reason, and it's the trajectory growth rates on where we've been investing, have -- I mean, we're looking at, I don't know, what did we say, 500 basis points of improvement over the past 24 or not even 24 months, 20 months. So that we're good there. And we have a data point in terms of orders and backlog earlier this year than we would have in a normal year. So growth -- where we've chosen to participate, those markets are performing well. And the customers that we have across the broader portfolio are beginning to order into 2027 for a variety of reasons that we usually are kind of cautious until we get into giving full year guidance because usually, we don't have that kind of visibility.

Andrew Buscaglia

Yes. That's the sense I get. Okay. And then just on the heat exchanger side, you talked about -- you sort of said you hope you have more capacity investments because I mean things are probably going well. What are capacity requirements like heat exchangers, in your opinion? And then just given the really strong growth we're seeing in that data center cooling side, what's the competitive dynamics there? That's always been sort of a risk that you're not alone in identifying this growth in -- yes, if you could kind of comment on that too, please?

Richard Tobin

Yes. Everybody wants to be in data centers. I see the M&A presentations all the time. Look, this is -- that's a highly automated process. You need to make capacity decisions 18 months in advance before them coming online. So this is not kind of hire a bunch of people and get bigger throughput. It's actually very little people in the process. And so it's a very highly engineered -- probably one of the most highly engineered products that we have in the entire portfolio.

It's a very concentrated market, but those competitors that we have, if you went and looked, are also announcing capacity expansion. So I don't -- I think that we've done a very good job of proactively investing in capacity in advance of the market to the detriment of margins in the past. So we'll get our fair share here.

But I can't disagree with you. I mean everybody wants to be in data center. So you've got to be -- we're going to find out altogether about the duration of the demand. Right now, I don't think we're getting over our skis just because our backlog says what it is, and we believe there is going to be a conversion into more CDU mix than we see now. But I think that we're positioned competitively and from a capacity point of view, appropriately.

Operator

Our final question comes from Brandon Knutson, Morgan Stanley.

Brandon Knutson

Just a quick follow-up on CST mark. So you said it's going to be stronger -- growth from -- flat. A lot of that...

Jack Dickens

Brandon, we're having a hard time hearing you. Are you far away from the microphone?

Brandon Knutson

Hello?

Jack Dickens

Hey, can you hear us, Brandon?

Brandon Knutson

Yes. Can you hear me?

Jack Dickens

Yes, we can hear you now. Go ahead.

Brandon Knutson

CST, you saw strong growth accelerate the margins...

Richard Tobin

Brandon, you're cutting out. You know what, give Jack a call, he'll get to you. But -- you're cutting in and out.

Jack Dickens

Okay. I think we can wrap up the call, Leslie.

Operator

That concludes our question-and-answer period and Dover's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.