マーカンタイル・バンク（MBWM）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：NIMが3.73%に上昇

要点

• Mercantile Bank Corporationの2026年第3四半期純利益は2,410万ドル（希薄化後1株当たり1.39ドル）となり、2025年第3四半期の2,380万ドル（同1.46ドル）から増加しました。
• 純金利マージン（NIM）は、資金調達コストの低下、Eastern Michigan Bankの買収、ならびに固定金利貸出および有価証券のリプライシングに支えられ、前年同期比で24ベーシスポイント拡大し3.73%となりました。
• 2026年最初の9か月間に4億4,800万ドルの商業貸出の完済および一部返済があったものの、商業貸出は2025年末比で9%増加しました。融資コミットメントは5四半期ぶりの高水準となる5億8,900万ドルに達しました。
• 預金総額は前年同期比で17%増加し、うち無利息預金は22%増加しました。定期預金（CD）は、主にブローカー経由CDの減少により約1億8,000万ドル減少しました。
• 資産の質は引き続き堅調を維持しました。2026年9月30日時点で、不良資産比率は総資産の14ベーシスポイント、延滞貸出比率は総貸出の3ベーシスポイントとなりました。
• 2026年第4四半期について、経営陣は純貸出増加率を年率換算で5%〜7%、純金利マージンの上昇、および実効連邦税率を約17%と予想しています。

主要財務データ

2026年最初の9か月間の純利益は7,270万ドル（希薄化後1株当たり4.21ドル）となり、前年同期の6,590万ドル（同4.06ドル）を上回りました。調整後純利益は7,610万ドル（同4.41ドル）となり、前年同期の6,640万ドル（同4.09ドル）から増加しました。

事業および営業業績

商業貸出が引き続き主な成長ドライバーとなりました。商業貸出は2025年末比で9%増加し、未実行の建設融資部分を含むコミットメント額は前年同期の3億8,600万ドルから5億8,900万ドルに増加しました。経営陣によると、資産売却、借換、余剰キャッシュフローによる大幅な返済があったものの、新規融資パイプラインは引き続き堅調に推移しています。

預金の増加により資金調達構成が改善しました。2026年9月30日までの12か月間で預金総額は17%増加しました。無利息預金は22%増加し、有利息預金は15%増加しました。経営陣はこの増加要因として法人顧客取引、公金預金、およびEastern Michigan Bankの買収を挙げています。定期預金が約1億8,000万ドル減少したことで、高コストな定期調達への依存度が低下しました。

2026年最初の9か月間の非金利収入は16%増加しました。口座手数料収入が34%増加、クレジットおよびデビットカード収入が22%増加、スワップ収入が11%増加し、主に法人取引の拡大を反映しています。

非金利費用は前年同期比で第3四半期に880万ドル、最初の9か月間に2,580万ドル増加しました。Eastern Michigan Bankは第3四半期の非金利費用のうち410万ドルを占めました。その他の要因としては、人件費・福利厚生費の増加、ミシガン州南東部での採用、IT投資、ならびに基幹システムおよびデジタルバンキングの移行関連費用が挙げられます。

経営陣の見通し

経営陣による2026年第4四半期の前提条件は、市場環境のボラティリティが継続していることを認識しつつも、フェデラルファンド（FF）金利が据え置かれることを前提としています。

• 純貸出増加率は、好調な商業融資パイプラインと見込まれる返済を織り込み、年率換算で5%〜7%と予想されています。
• 純金利マージンは、商業貸出の増加、シカゴ連邦準備銀行における現金残高の減少、ならびに低利回りの固定金利商業用不動産融資および有価証券のリプライシングに支えられ、上昇する見込みです。
• 実効連邦税率は約17%と予想されています。
• ミシガン州南東部での人員投資、システム移行インセンティブ、およびEastern Michigan統合に関連する一時的費用は、2026年第4四半期に120万ドル、2027年第1四半期に70万ドルと予想されています。
• 2027年4月1日以降、データ処理および明細書発行処理のコストが四半期あたり60万ドル削減されると経営陣は見込んでいます。

経営陣は、金利環境が変化する中でも純金利マージンは数四半期にわたり比較的安定して推移し、わずかに上昇する可能性もあると予想しています。ただし預金価格設定の動向、特にマネー・マーケット口座の動向は依然としてモデル化が困難です。

リスクと注目点

2026年最初の9か月間における商業貸出の返済額は合計4億4,800万ドルとなり、前年同期の3億600万ドルから増加しました。経営陣は、余剰キャッシュフローによる返済を、今後の貸出成長において最も予測が難しい要因として挙げています。

公金預金には季節性があり、ミシガン州での第3四半期の徴税が好調だったことを受けて、10月と11月にさらに減少すると予想されていました。

経営陣はまた、流動性預金の金利感応度（ベータ）、将来の人員投資、および2027年の費用増加に関する不確実性も指摘しました。住宅ローン関連収入は第4四半期に季節要因で減少する見通しであり、中期金利が変化するなか顧客が慎重な姿勢を強めているため、スワップ収入も減速する可能性があります。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

• マージン感応度：経営陣によると、資産のリプライシングは比較的一般的にモデル化できるものの、流動性預金の動向は予測しにくいとのことです。マネー・マーケット口座が最も金利感応度の高い預金カテゴリーになると予想されています。
• ミシガン州南東部での拡大：Mercantileは2年前の小規模な商業銀行拠点から、約6名の商業リレーションシップマネージャーを抱える規模へと拡大しました。経営陣はさらなる採用を見込んでいるものの、その時期の予測は困難としています。
• 流動性の運用：第3四半期の連邦準備銀行における平均現金保有高は約4億2,500万ドルでした。経営陣は第4四半期の平均が3億ドル台後半に減少すると予想しており、これがマージン拡大に寄与する見込みです。
• 2027年に向けた貸出成長：経営陣は現在の新規実行案件の一部が2027年まで持ち越されると予想しており、預金成長を貸出成長とほぼ一致させたいと考えています。事業用預金のパイプラインは、貸出パイプラインとほぼ同等の強さがあると説明されました。
• 有価証券のリプライシング：有価証券ポートフォリオの平均デュレーションは約4年で、満期分散（ラダー型）戦略をとっています。第4四半期には平均利回り1.5%の有価証券約1,600万ドルが満期を迎える予定で、2027年には平均2.5%の1億ドルが満期を迎えます。
• 資産の質：経営陣は、不良債権のゆるやかな増加は経済やポートフォリオにおける構造的な問題を示すものではないと述べました。また、近年の第4四半期における債権償却の傾向は、意図的な処理戦略ではなく偶然の一致であると説明しました。

決算説明会（トランスクリプト）全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Mercantile Bank Corporation 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Nichole Kladder, Chief Marketing Officer of Mercantile Bank. Please go ahead.

Nichole Kladder

Hello, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will cover the company's financial results for the third quarter of 2026. The team members joining me this morning include Ray Reitsma, President and Chief Executive Officer; as well as Chuck Christmas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda will begin with prepared remarks by both Ray and Chuck and will include references to our presentation covering this quarter's results. You can access a copy of this presentation as well as the press release sent earlier today by visiting mercbank.com. After our prepared remarks, we will then open the call to your questions.

Before we begin, it is my responsibility to inform you that this call may involve certain forward-looking statements such as projections of revenue, earnings and capital structure as well as statements on the plans and objectives of the company's business. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements made today due to factors described in the company's latest Securities and Exchange Commission's filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call.

Let's begin.

Ray?

Raymond Reitsma

Thank you, Nichole. Our results from the third quarter continue to build on the theme of commercial expertise generating a strong return profile. My comments will focus on highlights around the net interest margin, loan and deposit growth, asset quality, noninterest income and noninterest expense. Chuck will then follow with the specifics of the quarter.

The net interest margin improved to 3.73% during the third quarter of 2026 from 3.49% during the third quarter of 2025. This improvement was driven largely by a reduction in the cost of funds resulting from the acquisition of Eastern and the refinement of our deposit base, including a decrease in broker deposits and the repricing of fixed rate loans and securities with continued opportunities for asset repricing in 2026 and 2027.

In addition, the margin expansion occurred in a dynamic interest rate environment. From the third quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, SOFR declined by 67 basis points and our net interest margin increased by 6 basis points. From the first quarter of 2026 to the third quarter of 2026, SOFR was unchanged and our net interest margin increased by 18 basis points, highlighting the impact of the in -- actions listed above. The chart on Page 11 of the investor presentation illustrates these dynamics.

Turning to loans. Commercial loans, our largest asset class, increased 9% from the prior year-end quarter end and helped drive a 17% increase in revenue compared with the third quarter of 2025. That growth occurred despite elevated pay downs from asset and business sales, excess cash flow and refinancing to the secondary markets totaling $448 million for the 9 months ending 9/30/2026 compared to $306 million during the respective 2025 period.

At the same time, lending commitments, including unfunded portions of construction loans, stand at a 5-quarter high of $589 million at September 30, 2026, compared to $386 million at 9/30/2025. Asset quality continues to be strong with nonperforming assets representing only 14 basis points and 16 basis points of total assets at September 30, 2026 and September 30, 2025, respectively.

Past due loans stand at just 3 basis points of total loans as of September 30, 2026. C&I and owner-occupied commercial real estate remain near our target of 55% of the commercial portfolio with appropriate granularity relative to loan type classifications. These solid metrics reflect continued discipline in underwriting standards, a strong credit culture and the quality of our client base.

On the funding side, our focus on deposits continues to produce results. Total deposits increased 17% over the last 12 months ending September 30, 2026, including 22% growth in noninterest-bearing deposits and 15% growth in interest-bearing deposits. This growth principally reflects growth in commercial relationships, the development of relationships in the public funds markets and, of course, the acquisition of Eastern Michigan Bank.

Importantly, overall deposit growth occurred as certificates of deposit declined by approximately $180 million over the same period. This decline primarily represents brokered CDs. And as a result, the overall quality of our funding mix continues to improve, while our reliance on higher cost term funding continues to decline.

Noninterest income in total increased 16% during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the respective 2025 period, including a 34% increase in service charges on accounts, a 22% increase in credit and debit card income and an 11% increase in swap income, in large part reflecting growth in commercial relationships. We have characterized 2026 as a year of investment around people and technology, including a change in our core systems provider, which is reflected in our noninterest expense.

Investments in people include additional costs around the company in general and particularly in Southeast Michigan as we take the opportunity afforded by disruptions in that market. Chuck will comment on what our normalized run rate will look like in upcoming quarters. We remain excited about our combination with Eastern and the opportunities to add customers and employees to our bank as we capitalize on disruptions to markets in Michigan, particularly Southeast Michigan. That concludes my remarks.

I will now turn the call over to Chuck.

Charles Christmas

Thanks, Ray. Good morning, everyone. This morning, we announced net income of $24.1 million or $1.39 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2026 compared with net income of $23.8 million or $1.46 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2025. Net income during the first 9 months of 2026 totaled $72.7 million or $4.21 per diluted share compared to $65.9 million or $4.06 per diluted share during the first 9 months of 2025.

Growth in net income during both time frames primarily reflected increased net interest income and noninterest income that more than offset higher noninterest expenses and federal income tax expense. Excluding nonrecurring costs associated with the year-end 2025 acquisition of Eastern Michigan and the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and the impacts of smaller onetime items, adjusted net income was $24.5 million or $1.42 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2026, $24.3 million or $1.50 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2025, $76.1 million or $4.41 per diluted share for the first 9 months of 2026 and $66.4 million or $4.09 per diluted share for the first 9 months of 2025.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share decreased $0.08 or approximately 5% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025 and increased $0.32 per diluted share or approximately 8% during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the first 9 months of 2025. We believe using these non-GAAP measurements reflects our core earnings performance and provides for a more accurate current period versus prior period comparisons.

Interest income on loans increased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, primarily reflecting loan growth that was partially offset by a lower yield on loans. Average loans totaled $4.97 billion during the third quarter of 2026 compared to $4.6 billion during the third quarter of 2025, an increase of $300 million. Mercantile Bank experienced robust commercial loan fundings throughout 2026, but also received significant payoffs and partial paydowns of certain larger commercial loans aggregating $448 million.

Our yield on loans during the third quarter of 2026 was 23 basis points lower than the third quarter of 2025, primarily reflecting the 75 basis point aggregate decline in the federal funds rate during the last 4 months of 2025. Interest income on securities increased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, reflecting growth in the securities portfolio and a higher yield. The growth in higher yield reflect the acquisition of Eastern Michigan, along with ongoing portfolio expansion and the reinvestment of matured lower-yielding investments at Mercantile Bank. Average balances were up $284 million and the average yield increased 53 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

Interest income on other interest-earning assets, a large portion of which is comprised of funds on deposit with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, declined during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025, but increased during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025. The average yield decreased 67 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 75 basis points year-to-date over year-to-date, largely depicting the 75 basis point decrease in the Fed funds rate during the last 4 months of 2025. The average balance was $9 million lower in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025, but was $110 million higher during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the first 9 months of 2025.

In total, interest income was $4.6 million and $14.5 million higher during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the respective prior year period. Interest expense on deposits decreased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, reflecting a lower cost of deposits that more than offset interest-bearing deposit growth. The growth in interest-bearing deposit balances and the lower cost of these funds reflected the acquisition of Eastern Michigan, along with growth and lower deposit costs at Mercantile Bank. Cost of interest-bearing deposits at both banks were positively impacted by the decline in the Fed funds rate in the latter part of 2025.

Average interest-bearing deposits totaled $4 billion during the third quarter of 2026 compared to $3.61 billion during the third quarter of 2025, an increase of $389 million. The cost of all deposits was down 51 basis points during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2025 and down 49 basis points during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025.

Interest expense on Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis advances declined during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, largely reflecting a lower average balance that more than offset a higher average cost. Interest expense on other borrowed funds increased during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods, largely reflecting the impact of a term loan we obtained in late 2025 to assist in the cash portion of the Eastern Michigan acquisition. In total, interest expense was $4.3 million and $9.6 million lower during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to the prior year periods.

Net interest income increased $8.9 million and $24.0 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, compared to the prior year periods, primarily reflecting growth in earning assets and a higher net interest margin. Average earning assets totaled $6.52 billion during the third quarter of 2026, compared to $5.94 billion during the third quarter of 2025, an increase of $575 million. Average assets increased $664 million during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to the same time period in 2025. The growth in average earning assets during both time periods largely reflects the acquisition of Eastern Michigan at year-end 2025, along with loan and investment growth at Mercantile Bank.

The net interest margin was 3.73% during the third quarter of 2026 compared to 3.49% during the third quarter of 2025 and was 3.62% during the first 9 months of 2026 compared to 3.48% during the first 9 months of 2025. The improvement during both time periods is largely due to the Eastern Michigan acquisition. The yield on earning assets declined 22 basis points and 29 basis points during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, while the cost of funds declined 46 basis points and 43 basis points during the same 2026 time periods.

We recorded provisions for credit losses of $0.7 million and negative $2.9 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively. The third quarter provision expense mainly reflected a net increase of $1.7 million in specific allocations and an increase of $0.6 million associated with net loan growth which was partially offset by a $1.5 million reduction resulting from faster prepayment speeds on the residential mortgage loan portfolio.

The reserve balance increased $1 million during the third quarter of 2026, reflecting the $0.7 million provision expense and net loan recoveries of $0.3 million. The reserve balance equaled 1.14% of total loans as of September 30, 2026. Our sustained strength in loan quality metrics continues to be impactful to our loan loss reserve calculations. The baseline allowance, largely determined from historical net loan charge-off activity represents only 1/3 of our current reserve balance, reflecting a low level of net loan charge-off activity during our look-back period from the beginning of 2011 through the end of the third quarter of 2026.

Specific reserve allocations totaled just $2.6 million or about 5% of the reserve balance as of September 30. Noninterest expenses were $8.8 million and $25.8 million higher during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, compared to the prior year periods. Excluding onetime costs associated with the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and year-end 2025 acquisition of Eastern Michigan that aggregated $0.6 million and $4.4 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, and $0.6 million during both the third quarter and first 9 months of 2025, noninterest expenses increased $8.8 million and $21.9 million compared to the prior year periods.

Eastern Michigan Bank's noninterest expenses totaled $4.1 million and $12.1 million during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively. The increase in core operating costs largely reflects higher salary and benefit costs, including expenses associated with personnel investments in Southeast Michigan and incentive accruals related to the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and the integration of Eastern Michigan Bank. The remaining growth generally depicts inflation impacts and a larger balance sheet.

Federal income tax expense was $1.2 million and $3.2 million higher during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026, respectively, compared to the prior year periods, largely reflecting a higher level of pretax net income and a lower level of net benefits from transferable energy tax credits. The effective tax rate was 16.8% during both the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 compared to 13.4% and 14.9% during the respective time periods in 2025. The 2025 periods had higher levels of transferable energy tax credit activity given carryback opportunities.

Additional acquisitions of transferable energy tax credits may be made from time to time, subject to our investment policy, tax credit availability and tax credits derived from our low-income housing and historical tax credit activities. Both Mercantile and Eastern Michigan Bank have strong and well-capitalized regulatory capital positions. Mercantile Bank's total risk-based capital ratio was 13.4% at September 30, $200 million above the minimum threshold to be categorized as well capitalized. Eastern Michigan Bank's total risk-based capital ratio was 23.9% as of September 30, $39 million above the minimum threshold to be categorized as well capitalized.

We did not repurchase shares during the third quarter of 2026. We have $6.8 million available in our current repurchase plans. In regard to the fourth quarter, on Slide 27 of the investor presentation, we share our latest assumptions on the interest rate environment and key performance metrics for the fourth quarter with the caveat that market conditions remain volatile, making forecasting difficult. The forecast is predicated on no changes -- in the federal funds rate during the quarter, although we believe our net interest margin will remain relatively stable in a changing interest rate environment.

We are projecting net loan growth in a range of 5% to 7% annualized, which encompasses a strong commercial loan pipeline as well as expected commercial loan payoffs. We are forecasting a higher net interest margin during the quarter as we benefit from commercial loan growth, lower levels of moneys at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and maturing low-yielding fixed rate commercial real estate loans and investments. We are projecting a federal tax rate of approximately 17%, which encompasses continued growth in net benefits from our low-income housing and historical tax credit activities, along with additional transferable energy tax credit investments.

Expected quarterly results for noninterest income and noninterest expense are also provided for your reference. Noninterest expense projections reflect ongoing personnel investments made in Southeast Michigan as well as to support operational areas as we switch core and digital banking providers to enhance the durability, efficiency and experience for our customers and employees. Nonrecurring costs associated with the core and digital banking system conversions are not included.

Onetime expenses associated with the recent personnel investments in Southeast Michigan and incentive accruals related to the ongoing core and digital banking system conversion and the integration of Eastern Michigan Bank totaled $2.4 million during the third quarter of 2026. These costs are projected to aggregate $1.2 million during the fourth quarter of 2026 and $0.7 million during the first quarter of 2027.

Starting April 1, 2027, we project a $0.6 million quarterly reduction in our data processing and statement processing costs. In closing, we are very well -- very pleased with our operating results during the third quarter and first 9 months of 2026 and continued strong financial condition and believe we remain well positioned to continually successfully navigate through the myriad of challenges and uncertainties faced by all financial institutions. That concludes my remarks.

I'll now turn the call back to Ray.

Raymond Reitsma

Thank you, Chuck. That concludes the prepared comments from management. We will now move to the question-and-answer portion of the call.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Brendan Nosal with Hovde Group. [Operator Instructions]

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Race with Piper Sandler.

質疑応答

Nathan Race

Chuck, I was hoping to just start on the margin outlook. I appreciate the guide for 4Q. But as you look out to next year, I think in your comments, you alluded to 25 basis points of rate cuts to the extent they occur next year, should be pretty margin neutral. I'm just curious, underpinning that, are you expecting pretty similar betas on both loans and deposits, just perhaps given that some of the strong deposit growth you guys have generated over the last several quarters is maybe coming from some higher -- from some clients that maybe demand more around rate hikes? Or just any thoughts on just kind of deposit loan expectations into next year?

Charles Christmas

Yes. Nathan, great question. I think what we look at is the asset side is pretty easy to model out when you're looking at rate changes. It's obviously the nonmaturing deposits, which is the tricky part in trying to understand what the betas are going to look like. And I think those -- quite frankly, I think those change over time. And I think the attitudes change a lot in regards to how aggressive or nonaggressive the Fed is. If they kind of do a drip, drip, say, 25 basis points, these are all examples, each quarter.

I don't think the depositors and the markets are as sensitive to changing rates. But if the Fed gets aggressive, maybe 2 changes, 2 increases a quarter or maybe throwing a 50 basis point out there. I just think it makes more attention, and I do think it has an impact on the betas. So that's one of those things that just is impossible to really model accurately. I think there's really two areas that we've seen most of the deposit growth, and this is obviously excluding the Eastern Michigan deposit portfolio that came over, which is fantastic, both in cost as well as durability.

Noninterest-bearing checking accounts, which is primarily related to continued expansion of the commercial loan portfolio, including those that maybe get a line of credit, but are generally net depositors. The bank, obviously, we love those. And then the money market accounts. I would certainly -- would agree with the spirit of your question that the rates on money market accounts are probably going to be the most sensitive and certainly the most immediate that we have out there. We do have a product where some of our bigger customers are actually -- their rate is actually tied to the Fed funds rate. So those do immediately reprice. So those are pretty easy to model.

But our money market product is tiered based on balance and obviously, different rates for different balances. I will say that the -- at least in the first increase here in September, the changes that we actually made were a little bit less than what we had beta'd out. So a little bit of a benefit to the margin there. But it's early yet. Everybody is trying to dissect within our markets of what's going on and looking at their own balance sheet. So it's a very dynamic. Hopefully, we can -- our betas -- our actual betas are going to be less than what we modeled. But it's way too early to tell. And actually, I think it's subject to ongoing change anyways.

But on an overall basis, the way we model it out, the way that we balance -- have managed our balance sheet, it is certainly our goal and our expectation that certainly over several quarters that our margin would remain relatively stable, maybe a small increase. We do show in our results a model of a slight increase in our margin if rates do go up. But on an overall basis, we're trying to be agnostic to rate changes. We can't control interest rates. Nobody can predict interest rates. So our goal is to make, I won't say bulletproof, but make ourselves very durable in any changing interest rate environment and not having to hope because obviously, that is not a good strategy for long term in regards to our margin. Hopefully, that helps you, Nathan.

Nathan Race

Yes, absolutely. That's really helpful. And maybe a larger broader question for Ray. Just thinking about operating leverage for next year. I think over the last couple of years, there's been some substantial investments on the personnel side, particularly on deposit gathering and you've obviously had success kind of getting the loan-deposit ratio well below where it's been historically. So just curious, as you think about kind of investments in personnel or additional production hires, do you see additional opportunities on the horizon? Or do you think 2027 is going to be more of a year of kind of just realizing some of the investments that you've made and just generating overall more positive operating leverage into 2027?

Raymond Reitsma

Yes. That's a great question as well. And we're always trying to balance the investment with the anticipated return. But when there's what you might call a high level of disruption, there's quite a bit of opportunity both to hire people and to add new customers. So we have added a number of experienced commercial bankers around the corporation in the last quarter, really outstanding talent from the super regional and national banks that we compete with. We hired our succession leadership person for our treasury management group, and we have a 1-year transition where both of those people are on the staff, lots of support people around the growth, including credit and risk management and the like.

So your assessment is correct. And we could slow down and reap more than if we continue to invest. But for the long haul, if the opportunities are there to add people that we think will really do a great job for us, we'll continue to invest. So it remains to be seen a little bit. We're very pleased with the level of success that we've had in adding talent to the bank. And when we're convinced of its long-term positive effect, we'll continue to do that.

Nathan Race

Okay. Great. And maybe one last one just for Chuck, just to maybe put a finer point around what we can kind of think about a range for expenses for next year. I appreciate the guide for $600,000 of costs coming out in 2Q of next year. But just overall, just given that there could still be some opportunistic hires, kind of any thoughts on just kind of overall expense growth into next year? Any particular guideposts that you could point us toward?

Charles Christmas

I guess my general thought is that budgeting for overhead cost is going to be difficult for next year. And to be honest, we're just in the initial stages of that, obviously, working through core and quarter end here. We'll get busy putting the budget together, obviously, give guidance in January for 2027. I'm hesitant to give too much out there. Obviously, we have merit increases and promotions and those types of things that will result in increased salary and benefit expense.

Obviously, we're a service company. That's our -- one of our biggest expenses on the income statement besides interest expense and federal income tax expense. Kind of echoing what Ray was saying is like we want to continue to be very opportunistic -- based on what we've seen so far, I would say, late last year into this year and what's going on in the markets, we certainly see an opportunity to be opportunistic. But obviously, it's all about the people and finding them and certainly would be happy to bring them on if it makes sense.

I would say from a real estate standpoint, we are making -- we have been making some investments in real estate and continue to do so, especially in Southeast Michigan as we build out that market. I would say the actual costs are going to be somewhat limited in 2027, maybe in the back half as whether we do some new construction or maybe buy an existing or lease an existing facility that needs some build-out, that's going to take a few quarters to get done. So you might see some investments on the balance sheet, but I don't think the expenses will be very much, if any, maybe in the fourth quarter of next year.

And then just kind of everything else that's in the cost of running a bank. But I think certainly, our biggest expense is the one that at this point is somewhat of an unknown, given some opportunities that may be presented between now and the end of next year. But definitely, we'll be happy to give guidance in January when we've completed our budget process and gone through that thoughtful considerations.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Brendan Nosal with Hovde Group.

Brendan Nosal

Can you hear me now?

Charles Christmas

Yes, we can.

Brendan Nosal

All right. Sorry about that. Apologies. Chuck, just to kind of circle back to maybe the balance of liquidity. I think you noted in your prep remarks that part of next quarter's margin expansion would come from holding less cash at the Fed. Can you just help us with kind of where you see the average cash balance coming in, in the fourth quarter versus this quarter's level of like $425 million?

Charles Christmas

Yes. I think we're hopeful to see that go down, quite frankly. And obviously, it will help the margin. I would say it's going to be a little bit lower than that based on what we see and our expectations going forward. But I would say it's probably going to be still in the upper $300s for the fourth quarter on an average basis, trending down during the quarter, but starting from a pretty high point.

Brendan Nosal

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. Maybe kind of digging into Southeast Michigan a little bit more. Could you just kind of give us more of like kind of a full play by play on where you started, where you are today and then what you're still hoping to accomplish down in that market in terms of personnel additions? And then just any thoughts on kind of timelines to get that group additive to the bottom line?

Charles Christmas

Yes. I appreciate that question. It's a very difficult thing to predict exactly when we'll be able to make talent acquisitions in the market. But we're very happy with the volume and the quality of the discussions that we have right now to add people to the team in addition to the ones that we've already added. We had a fairly small number of commercial people in the Southeast Michigan say, 2 years ago. And we've ramped that team up to a good half dozen commercial callers in that market now and expect that number to continue to increase over the next year, the pace of which is almost impossible to predict.

But again, we feel very good about the discussions that we have ongoing, the quality of those and the probability of success. But to quantify that is a nearly impossible task.

Brendan Nosal

Yes, that's fair, but it's still helpful to kind of hear where you started and where you are now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Damon DelMonte with KBW.

Damon Del Monte

So first one, just on the outlook for noninterest income, obviously, a step down here from the third quarter. So just wondering if you could give a little bit more granularity on that. Is that kind of reflective of a more challenging mortgage banking backdrop? Or is it maybe more from like swap fee income? Or just any color on that would be great.

Charles Christmas

Well, I think you hit both items. But I think from a mortgage standpoint, I think it's more seasonal than anything else. We're actually very pleased with our mortgage group. If you look at our production in a very tough environment, it's actually been going up. And so incredible work by the entire team. And as we continue to gain -- we look at that as gaining market share, in again, a very tough environment. So I think that there is a decline in expected mortgage banking income, but I think it has more to -- I know it has -- as far as projections go, it has more to do just with the seasonality and the set on of snow starting to fall here relatively soon.

And I think we had a solid swap quarter in the third quarter. We would like to duplicate that. I'm not sure we're going to get there. I think as rates have popped up and the market has been pricing in additional rate cuts, it has certainly had a noticeable impact on 5, 7-year rates in the swap market. So it appears that our customers are a little more hesitant than they have been, say, typically in the past to get into the swaps. But if they want a fixed rate, it's obviously a product that we can offer them that will give them their desired fixed rate.

But again, that's one of those things that's also very difficult to predict not understanding what's going on in the marketplace, but just from timing as we're making commercial term loans and from quarter-to-quarter, there's some lumpiness in there. But it's -- you're spot on. It's those two items that are causing the expected reduction in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

Damon Del Monte

Got it. Okay. And then with regards to the 5% to 7% loan growth here in the fourth quarter, do you guys feel like the bulk of the payoff activity that you've been dealing with is kind of like peaked and is subsiding now? I guess do you have good visibility on that at this point in the quarter?

Raymond Reitsma

So this is Ray. To answer that question, I think you have to break down what some of those payoff components are. When there is a sale of a company or an asset, there is really nice visibility to that, and we can predict what's going to happen in a quarter fairly accurately. The one that is very difficult to predict is the paydowns that come from excess cash flow, and those have ramped up quite a bit in the quarter that we just completed. So if that continues to be true, that will be the toughest one to nail down.

We feel good about our backlog. You can see it's at a 5-quarter high. And so the level of originations we are very comfortable with. The asset sale, piece of it is, I would call, moderate compared to recent experience. So the variable that will be toughest to define and will surprise us the most between here and the end of the year is what happens with excess cash flow generation.

Damon Del Monte

Okay. That's great color. And then just one last quick one. Chuck, do you happen to have the spot margin for September 30?

Charles Christmas

The spot margin for September 30. I can give you what it was in September. How is that?

Damon Del Monte

Okay. Fair enough.

Charles Christmas

It was 3.74% -- but I would make the comment that it would have been higher as of September 30.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.

Matthew Breese

I hear you loud and clear on some of the loan growth components. I guess my question is just given some of -- given the pipeline and payoff dynamics, if you think the projected level of loan growth in 4Q spills into 2027 and whether you expect deposit growth to continue to outpace loan growth near term?

Raymond Reitsma

Yes. I think those originations will come to rest at some point. So I guess the answer of will it spill? I would anticipate that it would. I think deposit growth should roughly parallel loan growth, and that would be the desired outcome.

Charles Christmas

Yes. The one caveat there is with the public unit deposits, which obviously is seasonal for all banks, we get some really solid inflows with tax collections here in Michigan in the third quarter, and we see some of the outflow already took place in September, but that will continue in October, November. But even excluding that, the deposit growth that we've had so far in 2026 is really strong growth in regards to business. And the pipeline on the deposit growth for businesses, to Ray's point is, I would say, in general, it is just as strong as the loan pipeline.

Matthew Breese

Yes. Okay. And then maybe just touch on securities. Securities portfolio yields are still pretty far off from current market rates. Can you help me out with near-term kind of cash flows on the securities portfolio and when we might see a more kind of significant shrinking of the gap between current yields and yields on the book?

Charles Christmas

Yes. I would say on an overall basis, our duration of our portfolio is about 4 years, and we stick and have always stick to a laddered maturity approach. Now there's a lot of calls in there. And we definitely have set up the securities portfolio over the last few years to protect us, excuse me, in a significant down rate environment of buying very discounted agency bonds, say, between $0.85 and $0.95 on the dollar that it would take probably 200 to 300 basis point rate reductions for those to start getting called, which would be a good insurance policy, at least for a limited time in regards to what we would see in interest income on our commercial loan portfolio.

So we feel really good about that. So that's the major interest rate risk tool that we do with our securities portfolio. I would say here in the fourth quarter and into of next year, we've got some really solid repricing opportunities, some solid dollars at low rates. And I think on Page 11 of the deck, we have that spelled out for you. We've got $16 million at an average rate of 1.5% here in the fourth quarter and then another $100 million at 2.5% average rate next year. And that's added on top of the fixed rate CRE loans that another almost $60 million this quarter and another almost $200 million next year with rates that are just under 5%.

So we've been getting that benefit, especially throughout this year, I would say even last year, but definitely throughout this year. Clearly, where rates are today, any bond that's going to be maturing and any loan that's going to be maturing is going to be refinanced or renewed at a higher rate. So there's going to continue to be some head or some tails -- tailwind there as long as rates stay where they are now. And we'll just see up from specifically to the investment question you had, we'll let the laddered maturity approach do what it's supposed to do and improve yields as we go forward.

Matthew Breese

Okay. Last one for me. If I look at -- If I look at the charge-off kind of patterns, the last couple of years have been really solid in the first 3 quarters of the year, but a little bit of a pickup in the fourth quarter. And I'm curious if there's any strategy or intention to that. A lot of banks will kind of kitchen sink or clean up stuff in the fourth quarter and whether or not that is expected to play out again this year?

Charles Christmas

No, that is total coincidence. I mean we work each credit. It seems like we have incredibly strong asset quality, obviously. But like all banks, you're always kind of chasing 1 or 2, I would say, larger-sized credits around on the commercial side. And it's just been total coincidence as far as when the charge-off has taken place. I think if you go back a quarter or 2 quarters or 3 quarters prior to the charge-off, you would have seen us establishing the specific reserve and then obviously going through the collection period.

And then when we get to the end of that collection period or towards the back half of the game, of the baseball game, we're going to take the charge once things become a little bit more finalized. So total coincidence that they've taken place in the fourth quarter.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] your next question comes from the line of Nicholas Holowko with Raymond James.

Nicholas Holowko

Maybe just one follow-up on the lending environment. Obviously, it sounds like you guys are seeing some pretty good growth in your pipeline, which should be encouraging for loan growth going forward. But maybe just in terms of the lay of the land, what you're hearing in terms of overall business confidence from your borrowers and their willingness to invest and expand at this point, especially given the recent rise in interest rates. If you could just give us an updated perspective on that, that would be great.

Raymond Reitsma

Sure. I don't think confidence has changed materially. There's been a bit of uncertainty in the environment that we've been talking about for a number of years. And I think that persists, but I wouldn't say that there's been a marked decrease in willingness to invest or a decrease in optimism about the future. So I think it's just more of the same.

Nicholas Holowko

Okay. Great. And then obviously, you just kind of touched on credit right before this. But just with the small pickup in nonperforming loans this quarter, anything to call out there? Obviously, they remain at relatively low levels overall. But if anything to call out there, that would be great.

Raymond Reitsma

Yes. I'd just underscore your observation that it's relatively low levels. And if we have any activity at all, it shows up as a change to a relatively low level. And so every once in a while, a few drops of rain fall from the sky, and that's what happened here. So -- we just continue to have similar experience where there's no systemic issues in the economy or our portfolio. Just from time to time, there's a management failure or a particular company becomes under a unique bit of stress that leads to those kinds of recognitions in our loan quality metrics.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference call over to Ray Reitsma for any closing remarks.

Raymond Reitsma

I'd just like to thank you for your participation in today's call and for your interest in Mercantile Bank Corporation. And this concludes the call. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.