アエロメヒコ（AERO）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：過去最高の売上高と12%の営業利益率

アエロメヒコ航空（AERO）の2026年第3四半期決算は、国際線需要、プレミアム商品、ロイヤルティプログラムに支えられ、四半期売上高が過去最高を記録しました。燃料費の高騰、インフレ、為替関連コストの上昇が、引き続き収益性の主な押し下げ要因となりました。

要点

• 2026年第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比13.6%増の16億2,000万ドルとなり、四半期として過去最高を記録しました。一方、供給能力（キャパシティ）の伸びは約1%にとどまりました。
• 調整後EBITDAは3億8,900万ドル（マージン24%）、営業利益は1億9,000万ドル（営業利益率12%）に達しました。
• プレミアム収入は売上高全体の42%を占め、前年同期から1ポイント上昇しました。また、「Aeromexico Rewards」の浸透率は8ポイント上昇し40%に達しました。
• 国際線収入は長距離路線や米国地域の好調に牽引され17.4%増加しました。国内線収入はワールドカップに伴う一時的な影響が和らいだことで6.7%増加しました。
• 燃料費は、前回発表された四半期見通しの想定を約9,300万ドル上回りました。それにもかかわらず、燃油除く座席キロあたりコスト（CASM）は前四半期比で改善し、上期の前年同期比約15%増に対して、第3四半期は7%増に縮小しました。
• 経営陣は第4四半期の見通しとして、売上高成長率を約14%〜16%、調整後EBITDAマージンを19.5%〜21.5%、営業利益率を7.5%〜9.5%と提示しました。

主要財務データ

アエロメヒコ航空はまた、ロイヤルティプログラムにおける失効（ブレイキッジ）見積もりの更新に伴い、繰延負債の調整と合わせて4,900万ドルの売上高を計上しました。

事業・運航実績

国際線収入は長距離路線や米国地域の好調により前年同期比17.4%増となりました。国内線収入はワールドカップに関連する一時的な混乱から四半期を通じて業績が回復し、6.7%増となりました。

ロードファクター（座席乗車率）は8月に90%、9月に87%に達しました。経営陣は、先行き予約状況が引き続き好調であり、供給増加計画にもかかわらず、第4四半期の予約率指標は前年同期を約2〜3ポイント上回っていると説明しました。

「Aeromexico Rewards」は引き続き商業面の強力な牽引役となりました。特典交換に伴う収入は27%増加し、全社売上高成長率の約2倍のペースとなりました。同プログラムの浸透率は過去最高の40%に達し、再買収およびブランド再編を行った2023年時点の21%から大幅に上昇しました。

自社オンライン直販チャネルの比率は売上の48%を占め、前年同期比で2ポイント上昇し、過去最高水準を維持しました。経営陣は、ブランド運賃設計の見直しや、プレミアム商品と価格感応度の高い顧客向け商品の差別化強化が要因の一部であるとしています。

第4四半期の供給増加は、モンテレイ〜パリ線の通年運航化やメキシコシティ〜バルセロナ線の通年化など、主に欧州およびアジア路線のワイドボディ機による運航が牽引します。国内線の供給量は、メキシコシティ国際空港の発着枠（スロット）が1時間あたり44枠から46枠に拡大されたことに支えられ、3%〜4%増加する見込みです。

米国運輸省（DOT）による従来の規制撤廃により、アエロメヒコ航空は規制当局の承認を前提として、米国路線の増便や新規開設において柔軟性を高めることが可能となります。経営陣は、これに関連する供給拡大の開始時期は早くても2027年以降になると述べました。

業績見通し（ガイダンス）

第4四半期の見通しは、総燃料価格を1ガロンあたり平均約4.50ドル、為替レートを1米ドル＝18メキシコペソと想定しています。

経営陣は、為替影響により第4四半期の売上高成長率見通しが報告ベースで約2ポイント押し下げられたと説明しました。7月時点で想定していた為替レートを適用した場合、第4四半期の売上高成長率は約16%〜18%になると指摘しました。また、追加の燃油コスト転嫁策（燃料リカバリー策）は公式ガイダンスに織り込まれておらず、需要が堅調に推移すれば上振れ要因となり得ます。

リスクと今後の注視点

燃料費は依然として足元で最大の圧迫要因です。第3四半期の燃料費は前回ガイダンスの想定を約9,300万ドル上回り、経営陣は直近のジェット燃料価格が1ガロンあたり5ドルに迫る水準について異例の高値であると述べています。

メキシコペソ高、インフレ、航空機フリート関連費用の増大も、燃料以外の費用を押し上げました。アエロメヒコ航空は自然体での為替ヘッジ機能を有しているものの、為替レートの変動は報告ベースの米ドル建て売上高や費用に影響を与えるほか、メキシコからのアウトバウンド需要にも影響を及ぼす可能性があります。

同社は、米国連邦航空局（FAA）によるメキシコの航空安全基準格付け審査と、カテゴリー2への格下げリスクを注視しています。経営陣は、本件はメキシコと米国の両政府間の協議次第であるとしています。

アエロメヒコ航空はまた、ボラリス（Volaris）とビバ（Viva）の統合提案の動向を注視し続けています。経営陣は、規制当局の決定や想定される是正措置についての予測を控えました。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

• 為替影響：経営陣は、ペソ安は米ドル換算の売上高と費用の双方を押し下げるため、損益への直接的な影響は概ね中立であると述べました。改定された為替前提により、第4四半期の燃油除くCASMは前回ガイダンス比で約2%〜3%改善する可能性があります。
• 燃料コストの転嫁：同社は、第3四半期の売上増加が燃料価格の前年同期比の上昇分を十分に相殺したと説明しました。経営陣は現在の第4四半期の燃料コスト転嫁率を約90%〜93%と試算しており、追加の価格設定および収益施策を通じて100%に近い水準を目指しています。
• 需要の内訳：国際線需要は依然として国内線需要よりも堅調であり、特に欧州、アジア、米国路線が好調です。出張および高級レジャー需要も、ワールドカップに関連する一時的な影響が緩和された後は同様に力強いと説明されました。
• 競合他社の供給能力：経営陣は、第4四半期の業界全体の供給成長率は控えめであり、国内線は1桁台前半の増加にとどまると見込んでいます。アエロメヒコ航空自体の7%〜8%の増加は、発着便数の増加ではなく、主に長距離路線におけるワイドボディ機の運用増によるものです。
• 米国路線の拡大：同社はDOTの決定を受けて新たな米国路線の供給拡大を検討していますが、FAAによる審査のタイミングも考慮しています。経営陣は、新規就航が2026年中に開始されることはないと説明しました。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Aeromexico's Third Quarter 202 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Now I would like to hand the conference over to Ms. Lucio Medina, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Medina, you may begin.

Lucero Angélica Medina González

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today to discuss our results are Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer; Aaron Lure, Chief Commercial Officer; and Ricardo Sanchez Breaker, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we will present results that are based on our unaudited consolidated financials. Accordingly, the financial results discussed today are based on information available to us as of the date of this call and are not a comprehensive final statement of our financial results for any period presented. We may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act regarding future events and our company's future performance. We caution you that several important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from any plans and expectations expressed in this call, including the risk factors disclosed in our SEC filings.

During this call, we will present certain non-IFRS financial measures. We have included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS measures in earnings release. Both our call and the earnings release are available on our website.

It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Andres Conesa.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Thank you, Lucero, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. We delivered strong third quarter results, reflecting once again the resilience and unique strengths of Aeromexico's business model. These results also demonstrate the significant progress we have made in recent years to build a stronger and more flexible company, better positioned to navigate periods of uncertainty, including today's high fuel cost environment. I would like to thank the entire Aeromexico team for their commitment and discipline in executing through a challenging environment. By putting our customer first, while maintaining strong cost control, the team continues to protect the quality of our service and capitalize on attractive revenue opportunities. EBIT margin reached a strong 12%, supported by record quarterly revenue that came in above the midpoint of the June guidance range.

In a quarter defined by higher-than-expected and volatile fuel prices, delivering a double-digit EBIT margin is a significant achievement. It demonstrates the strength of our business, our ability to capture premium revenues and the disciplined execution of our teams. Demand remains healthy, supported by a successful peak season that extended through September and delivered outstanding load factors. We also continue to see strong contributions from our premium products and loyalty program, which enhance our offering and reinforce customer preference for Aeromexico. Premium revenue represented 42% of total revenue, up 1 percentage point year-over-year, while loyalty penetration reached 40%, an 8-point increase versus last year. Total revenue grew 14% year-over-year, driven by premium and other revenue streams, including cargo and loyalty.

Together, these factors, along with [ cost ] [indiscernible] revenue management initiatives supported our performance during the quarter. Capacity increased by around 1% year-over-year in the third Q and as the temporary negative impact of the World Cup in June and July normalized, we saw a clear improvement in those factors. August reached 90% and September recorded 87%, which is a very strong level for a shoulder season month following the summer peak. More importantly, forward bookings remain strong, supporting a constructive outlook for the remainder of the year. This gives us confidence that underlying demand trends remain solid and that our capacity is well aligned with market conditions. Revenue growth more than offset the year-over-year increase in fuel costs despite jet fuel prices being generally above our guidance. Fuel costs increased by approximately $170 million year-over-year in the third Q, including nearly $93 million above the guidance we shared with you in early July. However, revenue growth was not enough to offset the combined increase in fuel and nonfuel costs.

In addition to the higher-than-expected sale expense, we experienced an anticipated increase in nonfuel costs derived on inflationary pressures and unexpected cost pressures resulting from the appreciation of the Mexican peso. Even so, our teams responded to revenue initiatives, [ fee ] recapture actions and disciplined capacity deployment enabling us to deliver a very strong level of profitability in the quarter. This third Q also show early signs of a better cost ex-fuel trajectory. Some pressures including FX started to normalize, and our teams continue to manage the cost base with discipline. Looking ahead, as operating leverage yields, [indiscernible], excluding fuel is expected to continue to improve. This is important because it demonstrates that beyond the temporary impact of fuel, we believe that the underlying business is moving [indiscernible] in the right direction, with improving cost momentum and a stronger foundation for sustainable profitability.

As a result of this structural resilience, we ended the quarter with a cash position across the level reported in the third quarter of 2025. Financial debt, including leases, continue on [ LATAM ] trajectory, while we maintain our investment program without raising additional debt. Our focus remains on investing for the future while protecting liquidity and preserving the financial strength of the business. Our network -- we continue to grow through the recently announced routes launching in 2027, including Mexico City to Milan, Guadalajara to Paris, Nassau and [ Monterrey ]. This expansion reflects our confidence in the long-term demand outlook and our disciplined approach to growth, adding capacity selectively in markets where we see attractive opportunities to generate profitable returns. The U.S. Department of Transportation decision immediately revoked its prior order disapproval circle scheduled by Mexican carriers, marks a very positive development for Aeromexico. It removes an important restriction on our ability to add frequencies and launch new scheduled services between Mexico City and the United States, subject to applicable regulatory requirements.

This gives us greater flexibility to capture attractive growth opportunities, strengthen our transborder network and offer our customers more connectivity between Mexico and the United States. Taking care of our customers also delivering a reliable operation, every day in every market we serve. This is something our teams have been focused on and the results are clear. Cirium once again recognized Aeromexico as the most on-time airline in the world during the third quarter. Together with our performance in the first and second quarters, this positions us very strongly to receive this [ recognition ] for the third consecutive year, a feat that no other airline has achieved in history.

Building on our strong third quarter results and solid outlook, we plan to remain focused on operating reliably, protecting revenue performance, managing costs with discipline and further strengthening our balance sheet. Ricardo will provide more detail on our 4Q and full year outlook shortly. Before that, I want to highlight the positive opportunities ahead with resilient demand and a favorable fare environment supporting continuous revenue momentum. We also see full operating leverage and better in our existing fleet. At the same time, we anticipate continuing to invest electively to the customer experience and in the network that makes Aeromexico, the preferred choice for charters. We are confident that this combination of strong execution and disciplined growth and our resilient business model will continue to differentiate Aeromexico and create long-term value for our customers, employees and shareholders.

With that, I will turn it over to Aaron to discuss our commercial performance in more detail. Thank you very much.

Aaron Murray

Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. I want to thank the entire Aeromexico team for their hard work and dedication to our customers for their continued loyalty. As Andres mentioned, we delivered the strongest quarterly revenue performance in Aeromexico's history with total revenue of $1.62 billion, up 13.6% year-over-year. This performance reflects strong demand across the network and the benefits of the commercial initiatives we are executing. International revenue showed strength across all entities, increasing 17.4% year-over-year, led by long-haul markets in the U.S. region. Growth in the U.S. region was especially notable given the high comparison base as last year's third quarter marked the inflection point in U.S. demand recovery.

In domestic, performance strengthened throughout the quarter as we distance ourselves from the World Cup, resulting in domestic revenue growing 6.7% year-over-year. Turning to commercial initiatives. Aeromexico Rewards continued to be an important driver of customer engagement and revenue quality. As Andres mentioned, program participation reached a new record in the third quarter of 40%, up 8 points year-over-year and 19 points since the program's reacquisition and rebranding in 2023.

Redemption revenue grew 27% year-over-year, 2x more than total revenue growth for the quarter as investments in the program continue to bring value to customers. Regarding modern airline retailing, our redesigned branded fare structure is driving significant incremental revenue by better aligning our product offering with different customer needs and willingness to pay. This enables us to more effectively position our premium offering while expanding our ability to compete from our price-sensitive demand. These capabilities continue to support growth in our direct online channel, where in the third quarter, direct online share remained at an all-time high of 48%, up 2 points year-over-year and 23 points versus 2019.

These initiatives are giving us greater control over how we present, differentiate and monetize our products, enabling more disciplined execution of our premium strategy while giving us the flexibility to compete across a broader range of customer segments.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Ricardo will provide details of our guidance. We continue to see strong demand trends across all geographies. In September, our fall sales campaign generated 45% more revenue than the previous year. In response to rising fuel costs, Aeromexico remains focused on deal recapture initiatives and maintaining flexibility and capacity management. Regarding capacity, fourth quarter growth will be driven primarily by wide-bodies as Aeromexico continues expanding its long-haul network in Europe and Asia enabled by recent 787 deliveries. This wide-body growth reflects a continued [indiscernible] of demand in traditionally weaker periods, particularly in European markets, and includes the extension of Monterrey Paris to year-round and the annualization of our recently launched Mexico City Barcelona service.

In addition, in the fourth quarter, we plan to grow domestic capacity between 3% and 4%, enabled by the increase in Mexico City slots from 44 to 46 per hour. We expect this growth to enhance our leading domestic position at our hub.

In closing, we believe Aeromexico is well positioned to deliver a strong finish to the year, supported by continued revenue momentum, growing customer engagement and a disciplined approach to growth.

I'll now turn the call over to Ricardo.

Ricardo Sánchez Baker

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. First, I would like to join Andres and Aaron impacting the entire Aeromexico team for its outstanding efforts and execution during the quarter. Our results reflected [indiscernible] to remain focused, responsive and discipline for navigating significant fuel volatility, foreign exchange movements and a more demanding than expected cost environment. Our results demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business model and the durable structural advantages we have been [indiscernible]. In the third quarter, total capacity measured [indiscernible] sense, increased 1% year-over-year generally in line with our guidance. We manage capacity carefully by raising profitability. International ASMs grew 3%, [ or domestically ] event declined 3%, aligning supply with demand. As Aaron mentioned, revenue reached $1.6 billion, [ 40% ] year-over-year and a record for any quarter. [indiscernible] increased 12% driven primarily by passenger revenue and cargo and other commercial initiatives. Total revenue increased by $194 million more than offsetting the $121 million year-over-year increase in fuel prices. This [indiscernible] performance was driven by resilient demand, strengthened international markets, targeted revenue management initiatives and continued growth in our premium products and reality programs. The result was particularly significant given that fuel costs were approximately $93 million above the level contemplated in the guidance provided last quarter.

During the third quarter of 2026, Aeromexico based [indiscernible] program breakage, the first such alignment in 2018. To date reflects current member activity and long-term program trends. This update resulted in the recognition of $49 million in revenue for the period, together with an adjustment to our deferred liability. More importantly, this affected breakage establishes the rate bank that we expect to drive sustained growth in our annual revenue moving forward.

Our revenue growth fully offset the year-over-year increase in fuel prices. The combined impact of higher fuel costs anticipated increases in other operating costs and the impact of the stronger Mexican peso continues to pressure profitability. Despite the broader cost pressures, our disciplined execution and strong revenue performance supported an EBIT margin that remains among the strongest in the industry. Total operating expenses increased 22% year-over-year, primarily due to a 58% increase in TL expense, our fuel prices averaged nearly $4 per gallon compared with [indiscernible] in the third quarter of 2025. Our efficient fleet help mitigate this impact with fuel consumption down 2% and fuel bond for [ AM ], including [indiscernible]. Excluding fuel, operating expenses increased 10%, primarily reflecting the stronger Mexican peso, inflationary pressures and costs associated with fleet growth. CASM ex fuel increased 7% year over year, the improvement over the approximately 15% increase recorded during the first half of the year. This progress reflects decal discipline, operating efficiency and a more stable foreign exchange environment. As we continue to capture operating leverage opportunities by generating more [ licenses ] with our existing assets, we expect our half next year to turn more favorable.

Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $389 million, representing a strong 24% margin, while operating income reached $190 million, resulting in a robust 12% operating margin. The strength of our financial results underscore the structural durability of our business model and our ability to preserve healthy profitability despite a challenging cost environment. In our view, however, the most important financial results of the first 9 months of the year has been our strong cash flow generation. Aeromexico generated $542 million in net cash from operating activity through September 30, 2026. Enabling loss to from our planned investments are continued to reduce financial debt. During the third quarter, we repaid an additional $7 million of debt, further strengthening our balance sheet despite elevated fuel prices and other cost pressures. We ended period with $965 million in cash and cash equivalents, up $31 million year-over-year. We also renewed and upsized our revolving base facility from $200 million to $250 million, giving total liquidity to $1.2 billion, equivalent to 21% of last 12 months revenues. This decree position provides a strong foundation to continue investing in the business or preserving financial facility.

Looking ahead, our updated guidance reflects a late assumptions for fuel prices, foreign exchange and inflation-related expenses. For the fourth quarter, we expect capacity to increase between 7% and 8% year-over-year. The rating leverage that began to emerge in the third quarter should become more visible in the fourth quarter and continue to build in the years ahead. We expect fourth quarter revenue growth of approximately 14% to 16%. This outlook reflects robust demand, the strength of our network and disciplined commercial execution. With the strong demand, a stronger revenue base and high limitation of our assistant fleet, we expect generate more revenue and use our existing cost base more efficiently, supporting the stronger margins over time. More importantly, we expect to achieve this without having incremental fleet or taking on additional debt to fund growth. We anticipate further cash on fuel to remain double flat year-over-year. For the fourth quarter, we expect an adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 21.5% and an operating margin between 7.5% and 9.5%. Taken together, this will take us to our full year 2026 capacity growth of approximately 2% to 3% and year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 13.5% to 14.5%.

We expect full year adjusted EBITDA margin between 21.5% and 22.5% and full year operating margin between 8.5% and 9.5%. Our guidance assumes an average all [indiscernible] price of proportionately $4.5 per [ gallon ] for the fourth quarter and an exchange rate of approximately [ 18 pesos ] per pole. We cannot predict how fuel prices will moderate, but we believe they will eventually inclusion. When that happens, our ability to capture premium revenue together with our operating leverage embedded in the existing platform that we have should be able to unlock additional profitability opportunities. In the meantime, we remain focused on strengthening Aeromexico in a maturing environment. Our structural advantages and a strong cash generation should continue to report our competitive position, and we believe that the assets in Aeromexico and its competitors should continue to item in the following months.

With that, we will open to call for questions -- thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question is going to come from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth Worth with Evercore.

質疑応答

Duane Pfennigwerth

Can you just remind us, just play back for us the impacts from changes in FX. Our understanding is a modestly soft peso will lower or help your unit cost slightly lower your unit revenue, but be net neutral or maybe even a slight tailwind to margins. Can you just speak -- just remind us if we're now, say, modeling 18% or 18.5% instead of 17% how that impacts your revenue, costs and margins?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Thank you, Duane. Let me make some comments and then maybe Ricardo will dig a bit deeper. So as you know, we have a natural hedge on the currency. So basically, this movements do not affect the P&L. However, they have an impact on demand, like a second order impact were a stronger peso means stronger demand for [ Mexico ] flying abroad and the other way around. With the peso at these levels around between [ 18 and 19 ], we feel that the demand for -- to travel from Mexico abroad continues to be solid. We are in a good spot. Obviously, when the peso was -- it starts below MXN 17 per dollar. It was even stronger during the summer. But again, we see at these levels of the currency, very strong demand for Mexican struggling [ abroad ]. So a weaker peso that we are expecting versus the July guidance means lower costs in dollars and lower revenues in dollars. So even though we kept the total revenue projections in the guidance, flat versus what we were expecting in July, we see there is an impact of this weaker peso, which is equivalent to around 2 percentage points. So that's really, really important.

If you consider that the expected growth in revenues for the 4Q is between 16% and 18% versus the 4Q of 2025. So it's very, very solid. And we continue to take additional steps to strengthen revenue. Aaron can we discuss that in more detail. But again, this -- the new level of jet fuel that we are seeing, for example, is relatively new is the past 3 weeks or so, we get full approaching $5 per gallon its growth. It's a new norm. We are, as Ricardo explained for the quarter, expecting a way higher jet fuel price, which means around $170 million of pressure. And we are acting. So hopefully, with these actions, plus what I adjusted for this peso effect, we can even get closer to a growth rate of around 20% in total revenues for the quarter.

Again, this [ would ] to say today, but we're working on that direction. Ricardo?

Ricardo Sánchez Baker

Yes. Just to complement, Andres, and respond about the revenue side. Looking at the cost side, if you look at the anticipated or estimated as ex fuel for the 4Q versus the previous guidance. obviously is that cases can be better in around 2% to 3%, given also this FX impact. So yes, we have some impact on the revenue side that Andres already described. And on the cost side, we see some positive impact on past year. Go ahead. Sorry.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Yes.Just a follow-up kind of on fuel recapture initiatives. We've obviously been a difficult year in terms of needing to recapture cost of fuel. We have had a lot of success, though, and even in recent weeks, continue with the rising fuel to find regional success in passing those costs on. So our revenue guidance is in no way an indication that we feel like we've hit the end of that. In fact, with all these initiatives that have been deployed this year, we haven't seen any signs that there's any cracks in demand that maybe we've gone as far as we can.

So I think implicit in our guidance is not too much more recapture for the quarter. But we do feel like as we deploy those initiatives that could be upside. SP-4 Detailed response. And then just for my follow-up, -- can you speak to competitive capacity trends that you're seeing here into the fourth quarter? It does look like the capacity picture gets a bit tighter sequentially from 3Q to 4Q domestically in Mexico. I wonder if you could speak to that as well.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Well, what we are seeing, if you look at the capacity projections for the other 2 carriers in Mexico, they are down, they have been revised down, particularly for 1 of them, which is even projecting high single-digit contraction for the first Q. So we are not anticipating the pressures on the capacity side in the domestic market. There is an increase in the loss in Mexico City are mentioned from 44 we are covering our fair share of that, and we expect other airlines to follow. We yet having seen too much activity, but it's rational to anticipate that those will be covered, and that is what partially explains our growth for the 4Q.

What I want to stress, as Aaron mentioned, that this growth of between 7% and 8% that is driven by widebody flying, right? Again, those flights that we started after the 4Q of 25 that year-on-year and the plus some additional narrow-body flying, particularly in the domestic market as we catch up versus the previous actions before it's sustainable growth, it's disciplined growth. And it doesn't consider any additional flying to the U.S. because the VLT order was lifted just at the end of last week. So we are analyzing our options, and we soon will hear positive rules on network expansion to the U.S., but it will not happen this year.

It will be -- if anything, it will be at the start of 2027. Duane, a few more details on that. First of all, our 7% -- 7% to 8% capacity growth, as Andres mentioned, super efficient growth, almost all driven by state Engage versus departure growth. So that's, I think, important context. And then when you look at -- just to give you some specifics on OA capacity growth for the fourth quarter, some modest growth domestically, low single digits, 3 points of growth. a little bit more on international for points, but much below our growth in the quarter. So I look at the OA industry capacity growth in the fourth quarter to be favorable.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

Shannon Doherty

This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. So we saw the headline come through about Volaris and [ Viva's ] expected merger approval by the end of this year. We're anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts on what they could be and if Aeromexico would benefit from potential revenues?

Operator

Shannon, I'm sorry, we didn't hear that very well. Could you please repeat?

Shannon Doherty

Yes. Just on Volaris and Viva's expected merger approval by the end of this year, and we're anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts there? And would Aeromexico potentially benefit from remedies?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Thank you for the question. We are waiting for the decision of the authorities. As we mentioned before, -- our job is to continue strengthening our business. We continue to invest in our line to continue differentiating ourselves, our model from the to ULCCs. So that's our job. And I think, again, as I mentioned in our remarks, we have a very positive trend. We are very happy where the business is going. And so we have been obviously the contact with the authorities sharing our views. And we cannot comment if it's going to be approved or not, but certainly, -- in the past, many locations in other parts of the world when this type of lorry, they are usually come with remedies, which ran if it's approved, we do not know yet. -- and we are not now we will show and explain our position.

But again, I think we are in a good spot with where we are today and going forward.

Shannon Doherty

And if I may follow up, with the increase in slots from 44 to 46 per hour, -- do you think that this number increases further? I know the pre-pandemic airport is running in the low 60s. So I'm just wondering if there are any conversations about raising the slot limit further given the DOT's revocation, which would support further service to the U.S.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Yes. Again, this increase was in Yesterday, our Secretary of Transportation, we are in the unperforming this rise in Mexico City. He participated and she was that question and he did mention -- but going forward, by the end of this decade, we can expect to see a larger number of operations in Mexico going to high 40s. That was a thesis we were in line with what we are projecting.

Operator

And our next question is going to come from Guilherme Mendes with JPMorgan, your line is open.

Guilherme Mendes

Yes. Andres, Ricardo, Aaron. I have a follow-up on the fee recapture and demand trends. I guess the initial remarks on the strong demand environment was very clear. But just wanted to better understand the breakdown between leisure, corporate domestic and international, which segments are you seeing another performance in which segments are you seeing underperformance?

Andres Castañeda

Yes, I can take that. Yes, in terms of performance and where we're seeing strength and as we look out into the fourth quarter, -- we're super optimistic on the wide-body fleet, Europe and Asia, in particular, because that's where all our growth is coming. So with the capacity expansion, we're going to daily in intron later in the winter to period. And then we're up 25% or so in Europe. -- in the fourth quarter. And given that capacity growth, we're really happy with the increases in fares and traction we're seeing demand were booked ahead in terms of load factor and really across the board in all geographies. We sit here for the quarter, up about 2 to 3 points in book load factor with that kind of capacity increase.

So I think strength generally across the board, more international than we are in domestic. And I think that follows in addition to just performance overall, where we're seeing fuel recapture maybe highlighting another entity would be the U.S. You may recall, fourth quarter U.S. was quite strong in the comp. And even on top of that, we're seeing strong fuel recapture that's been seen and demand that really hasn't slowed down.

Again, while [indiscernible] echo Andres' excitement about the DOT resuming the order and us being able to grow into the U.S. in the future. So if those would be the geographies where we're seeing strength no real weakness is, I mean, domestic market is a little different and the competitive set is a little different. So your process for getting fuel recapture isn't the same. But generally speaking, across the board, we're pretty optimistic within all geographies.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Let me to complement what Aaron mentioned. Gener -- if you look at the numbers, revenue growth offset the fuel pressure. So we were able to recapture more than 100% of the future pressure, again, not enough to consider the growth in other costs associated with inflation in Mexico like labor costs, but it was a very strong performance. for the 4Q in the guidance that we gave, a few recaptures tell today at 90, 92, 93 with the initiatives that we described that we are not included, but may result in better revenue numbers. We feel confident that we can get close to 100% offset of the fuel. And I don't think many airlines in the industry can have this type of results.

Guilherme Mendes

Very clear. If I may follow up on breaking down between corporate and leisure, corporate continues to be relatively stronger?

Aaron Murray

Yes, we're seeing strength of Boston across both those segments. We just did a corporate survey, a little pulse survey, and the vast majority of corporates are looking at fourth quarter demand at stable or slightly up. Corporate -- where we did see some corporate impact was during the World Cup, there was definitely, and this was not surprising. But as hotel and fair prices were hydro in the cup in addition to just people the excitement around the cup, we did see corporate not grow at the same pace as the leisure business. But that's really -- as we've transitioned and distance ourselves from the top, both corporate and high-end leisure are behaving at a similar clip year-over-year. So both real strong demand.

Operator

And our next question is going to come from the line of Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley.

Jens Spiess

So yes, my first question is on the fourth quarter guide, specifically how it changed versus your previous 4-quarter guide? -- right? If we look at it, obviously, the biggest variable to change this is obviously the fuel price assumption. But at the end of the day, your revenue guidance was slightly declined despite the higher fuel. I mean some of it might be due to FX, right? But I was wondering, are you not -- didn't -- haven't you raised fares versus what you're expecting within your previous guidance to offset that higher fuel option.

And also trying to understand how this will impact like the next year, right? I mean, Andres, you already mentioned some metrics on fuel recapture. But assuming that fuel remains at this elevated level, I don't know, 4.3%, 4.5% whatever. But should we expect more pronounced fair increases in revenue growth in the first quarter next year?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Yes. Thank you, Jens, for your question. When we did the guidance, July and we expressed that we were expecting despite there was a piece announcement Jet fuel went down we were expecting as to speak at least for the -- until the end of the year, and that was reflected in the guidance. only the fires didn't even stick, jet fuel prices went up. But, this -- we're paying, as you know, historically high jet fuel prices. We've never say this jet fuel in history, not all the earnings, right? Even though crude oil is up 10%, and we touched 180 back 15 years ago, the jet fuel only for a couple of days when the comp either in the train started -- we didn't -- it was these levels. But what we are seeing today is a Spain is the first time in history. We are adjusting -- we have many initiatives in place every day in the we take this is, again, new the last 3 weeks.

It's not reflected these initiatives on their items. Hopefully, they will see -- we see very strong demand. Today, we are not in a position to review the guidance because, again, they are very new. We need to wait a little bit more time. but we are working on it. And again, let me stress once again the strong dollar versus the peso, reflected 2% lower growth in revenue for the 4Q. So if you adjust for that, if you go back to the July exchange rate. Growth for 4Q would be between 16% and 18% versus the 4Q of 2025. So adjusting for the peso and again, these initiatives that we are taking, we could be close to the 20% year-on-year growth for the 4Q, which would be outstanding and would put us, again, in a full position in the industry. And that's where we want to be, and we're working on that direction.

Aaron Murray

Yes, I would just add to Andres' comments. And as I mentioned before, I wouldn't dismiss the headwind that FX has on revenue. But implicit, I think, in our guidance, and the expectation is not that we're going to have significant movements on the fair recapture side. So it's conservative from that regard. With that being said, we are seeing no signs of demand cracking, right? And we're going to go back like we do every week and look for opportunities to pass the cost of fuel on to consumers.

And we're pretty optimistic that at this point through the year we've had to not have any signs of weakness in demand. I think that bodes well for us to continue to push on fuel recapture.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

The additional fee impact versus the July guidance it's $170 million. It's around 11% of margin points. So -- if you adjust for that in the guidance that we gave, EBIT margins are close to 20%. Again, with already high fuel prices, which are the ones that we were expecting in July, not the same level that we were seeing in 2025. So that's where you can then how structurally the companies.

Jens Spiess

All right. Perfect. And one additional question. On the DOT ruling and the lifting of the restriction in Mexico City. I mean you already mentioned that you plan to deploy additional capacity to the U.S. in mainly Next. But given the current FAA review and the potential like I mean downgrade to Category 2. Isn't there like a window of opportunity to anticipate those capacity deployments just to raise your capacity ahead of any potential downgrade?

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Yes. On the FAA review, as you know, the Mexican government provider statement last week where they stress that the old very well. Obviously, there are in many of its some observations, much lower number of observations versus the last FAA-that was done a few years ago. I mean we are very close to the authorities. We heard that they will be able to renovate those observations. Again, in the Alarm that was held for the our Secretary of Transportation, he stressed because one of the concerns that the FDA had was the budget for the civil aviation authority in Mexico. So he mentioned that the budget considered for 2026, an increase of close to 60% in the resources to the attack, which is a civilization authority.

The FAA the tranport was there. And they got together, they mentioned they have productive meetings teas in the unperforming as well. So we did 60% that will strengthen the capacity of the civil aviation authority to regulate the industry. They plan to higher mentioned around 500 more people we did 100 in 2026. So things are looking fine on that front. Again, it doesn't depend on us. It's an issue between the 2 governments. But we have that in mind, things look well and our decisions to expand the labor to the U.S. Obviously, we consider that. Aaron?

Aaron Murray

Yes, I'll just add too. There was the window that you discussed in the back and forth, it was I guess a follow-up happening in February. So we're definitely, as we think about deploying capacity and expanding to new markets in the U.S. We have that window of mind.

Operator

And our next question is going to come from the line of Ernst Anton, Morgan Cotter, eras with GBM.

Unknown Analyst

Just a quick one. I was wondering if anything related with the recent events in Europe and specifically in France have as us any maybe change in the demand for some regions or affecting some of your long-haul travel.

Operator

I'm sorry, I didn't hear you very well. Could you please repeat? Maybe get a little away from the phone.

Unknown Analyst

I was asking if anything related to the events that recently happened in France and Europe has maybe impacted negatively any of the demand that you're seeing in your long haul?

Aaron Murray

Yes, we haven't seen any impact due to that. Obviously, watching closely as those events unfold. But so far, no impact on demand.

Andrés Conesa Labastida

We started, as you know, the new flight between Monterrey and Paris. And it's been -- the performance has been very solid since the start. So we were keeping it going forward. And we are launching, as I mentioned before, Guadalajara Paris. So like Madrid, where we expanded from Guadalajara and Monterrey, Paris is the next point in Europe where we will deploy that strategy and looking the clients have not affected -- this is Ricardo. We have a couple of questions from the webcast that we would like to respond. The first question is related to the implications of our guidance for the fourth quarter in terms of our cash flow performance.

As we described in our remarks, we are convinced that first of the year, we have been able to flow of last year. So this has been really a remarkable achievement we expect that this trend will continue for the fourth quarter. So overall for the full year, we expect that strong [indiscernible]. The second question that we have in the webcast is related to our [indiscernible], in the third quarter we reported in [indiscernible]. We already have the aircraft in our fleet and the assets [indiscernible].

Thank you again for your time for being able to join the call. We continue to strengthen revenue to contain costs to continue providing the outstanding levels of profitability. We keep you posted on any relevant issue that we face. And we look forward for a very solid 4Q and then of this challenging year. Thank you very much again. And any follow-up questions, please let us know. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.