ノマド・フーズ（NOMD）2026年第2四半期決算説明会：価格設定、市場シェア回復、デレバレッジ

ノーマッド・フーズ（NYSE: NOMD）は、価格設定が2026年第2四半期における売上総利益率の成長回帰を後押しした一方、ドイツとフランスでの小売の混乱は解消されたと発表しました。経営陣は下半期に売上高および市場シェアのパフォーマンスが改善すると見込んでいるものの、市場シェアの横ばい（中立）への復帰にはより時間がかかる見通しです。

要点

• ドイツとフランスにおける小売の混乱は、一部の小規模小売業者や市場を除き解消されました。経営陣は、2026年第3四半期および第4四半期において売上高と市場シェアのパフォーマンスが改善すると見込んでいます。
• ノーマッド・フーズは、すぐに市場シェアを横ばいの状態に戻せるとは考えておらず、具体的なスケジュールも提示していません。同社の長期計画は、シェアを安定させ、最終的に拡大することです。
• 同社の事業展開市場における冷凍食品カテゴリーは、年初来で金額ベースで3.4%増、数量ベースで1.6%増となりました。直近3カ月間では、金額ベースで2.8%増、数量ベースで1.1%増となっています。
• 2億ユーロ規模の生産性向上プログラムは順調に進展しています。経営陣はコスト削減分を競争力のある価格設定の維持に活用しており、ノーマッド・フーズの価格指数はわずかに低下したと述べました。
• 価格設定が第2四半期の売上総利益率の成長回帰をけん引しました。経営陣はまた、2026年年末に向けて、主に魚介類において原価上昇に見合った追加の価格改定を推進する見込みです。
• 同社は直近の四半期において自社株買いを一時停止し、配当を維持する一方、資本配分の重点をデレバレッジ（負債削減）と利息費用の削減にシフトしました。

主要財務データ

事業・営業業績

経営陣は、第2四半期における市場シェアに対する重大な逆風として小売業者との取引混乱を挙げました。これらの問題は現在ドイツとフランスで解消されたとみなされており、同社は下半期の事業執行改善に向けて有利な状況にあります。

プライベートブランドの価格設定も、ノーマッド・フーズの競争環境にとってより有利になりつつあります。経営陣は、英国の一部の小売業者における20%〜30%の値上げ、フランスのカルフールにおける特定SKUの32%の値上げ、ドイツのアルディ、エデカ、レーヴェにおけるほぼすべての魚介類カテゴリーでの約20%の値上げを挙げました。

ノーマッド・フーズはこの価格環境を一部活かし、自社の価格指数をわずかに引き下げました。しかし同社は現在も実売データを分析中であり、価格弾力性について結論を出すのは時期尚早であるとしています。

生産性向上プログラムには、組織および製造面での施策が引き続き含まれています。経営陣は、マーケティング部門の再編や第2四半期に発表された工場閉鎖に言及しました。

経営見通し

経営陣は、小売業者との取引混乱が後退するにつれて、2026年第3四半期および第4四半期に売上高と市場シェアの動向が改善すると見込んでいます。ただし、市場シェアの横ばい（維持）達成にはさらなる時間が必要であると注意を促し、目標とする四半期は示しませんでした。

小売業者との追加価格交渉が始まっています。値上げは主に魚介類におけるインフレに関連したものであり、経営陣は2026年年末に向けて原価上昇に見合った価格改定を実施することに自信を示しました。

ノーマッド・フーズは、10月に開催予定のアナリスト・投資家向け説明会で、より広範な多年期の価値創造計画を発表する予定です。この計画ではイノベーション、マーケティング、営業執行力、生産性、組織の競争力が網羅される予定です。

リスクおよび注視すべき点

• 主要な小売業者との取引混乱が解消されたものの、市場シェアの回復には2026年下半期より長い時間がかかる可能性があります。
• 直近のプライベートブランドの値上げが市場に浸透し始めたばかりであるため、価格弾力性には不確実性が残っています。
• インフレは主に魚介類や鶏肉を含むその他のタンパク質原材料に集中しています。
• 数百万ユーロ規模の広告宣伝費や一般管理費の発生時期に伴うプラス効果、および100万〜200万ユーロのテクニカルなレシピ関連の差異は、後続の期間で反転や比較対照上の影響を生む可能性があります。
• 水不足による直接的な影響はこれまでのところ出ていませんが、経営陣は収穫への影響については今後の状況を見極める必要があるとしています。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

アナリストは市場シェア回復の時期に注目しました。経営陣は下半期に業績が改善するとの見解を再強調したものの、ノーマッド・フーズがシェアの横ばいまたは拡大にいつ復帰するかについては言及を避けました。

利益率に関して、ルーベン・バルデュー最高財務責任者（CFO）は、売上総利益率の改善要因は時期的な要因ではなく価格設定であると述べました。一時的な時期差による影響は、広告宣伝費、一般管理費、テクニカルなレシピ関連の差異にとどまりました。

資本配分に関して、同社は目標とするレバレッジ比率や時期を設定しませんでした。経営陣は直近の四半期に自社株買いを行わなかったことを確認した一方、配当は継続しており、現在は負債削減が最優先事項であるとしました。

ドミニク・ブリスビー最高経営責任者（CEO）は、同カテゴリーの金額・数量ベースでの継続的な成長とノーマッド・フーズのブランド力は力強い材料であると述べました。また、同社の競争力を高めるため、リーダーシップ、企業文化、オペレーション面の改革が必要であると強調しました。

決算説明会 文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Nomad Foods Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Q&A Session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jason English, Head of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Jason English

Thanks, Max. Hello, and welcome to Nomad Foods Second Quarter 2026 Earnings question-and-answer session. We've posted the associated press release, prepared remarks and investor presentation on Nomad Foods website at nomadfoods.com. I hope you all had a chance to review them.

I'm Jason English, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, and I'm joined by Dominic Brisby, our CEO; and Ruben Baldew, our CFO.

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about performance that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations and intentions at this time. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release, our filings with the SEC and our investor presentation, which includes cautionary language.

We will also discuss non-IFRS financial measures during the call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with IFRS results. Users can find the IFRS to non-IFRS reconciliations within our earnings release and in the appendices at the end of the slide presentation available on our website.

Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represents adjusted figures. All adjusted figures have been adjusted primarily for, when applicable, share-based payment expenses, related employer payroll taxes, exceptional items, foreign currency translation charges or gains and hedge ineffectiveness. Unless otherwise noted, comments from here will refer to those adjusted numbers.

With that, Matt, let's open the line to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

質疑応答

Andrew Lazar

Maybe to start, Dominic, I guess, as you think through the back part of the year and the cadence of how you expect sort of market share to unfold because I guess that's the one area where as you note in your prepared remarks that some of the disruptions and whatnot in the first half led market share not to be where you wanted despite the category obviously accelerating nicely.

So I guess, is it unreasonable to expect market share to be more neutral by year-end? Or is there something else that would prevent this now that much of the retail disruption is behind you, competitors are also sort of starting to take price. I'm really just trying to get a sense of whether there is something more structural regarding the ability to hold or gain share as you go forward.

Dominic Brisby

So Andrew, thanks for the question. So the retail disruptions were a meaningful headwind to our share in the quarter. And we certainly expect our performance to improve in the second half. As you pointed out, those disruptions are now behind us. And we're also encouraged to see the recent pricing actions of private label. That said, we still have more work to do to improve our competitiveness. We're making significant progress.

We expect to deliver better sales and market share performance in the third and fourth quarter, but it's probably going to take more time to get back to market share neutrality. I don't, however, see any reason that we cannot get there over time. In fact, we've developed what we think are very compelling plans that are designed to achieve just that. And we're looking forward to sharing those plans with you at our Analyst Day in October.

Andrew Lazar

Got it. And then what sort of elasticity are you seeing thus far on your sort of more recent pricing actions? And just how do those compare relative to maybe historical levels?

Dominic Brisby

So it's a little early to talk about where price elasticity is. Of course, in most cases, private label have only just increased prices, although we are starting to see quite meaningful price increases coming through. For example, in the U.K., certain retailers increasing 20% or 30% mid-July, Carrefour increasing on certain SKUs in France by 32%. In Germany, Aldi, Edeka and Rewe all raised prices by about 20% in most of the fish categories. However, we're still analyzing what the real sell-out data is. So at this point, it's a little too early to draw any meaningful conclusion.

Andrew Lazar

But it sounds like you're being at least, correct me if I'm wrong, prudent with respect to elasticity assumptions in the way that you sort of guided to for the full year around organic sales.

Dominic Brisby

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

Stephen Robert Powers

Going back to the retailer disruptions in Germany and France. I guess in the prepared remarks, you talked about them as being behind you being resolved as you did in response to Andrew's question, but then you also used language that alluded to like largely resolved. So I guess the question is just can you be a little bit more specific on exactly where we are today versus full resolution? And if not fully resolved, how much allowance that you've made for carryover disruption in the third quarter and second half?

Dominic Brisby

So I think with the exception of certain tiny retailers and tiny markets, these are fully resolved. So certainly, in the case of Germany and France, we're now in good shape. So I think you can consider these as resolved.

Stephen Robert Powers

Okay. Very good. Maybe you could also just talk a little bit about the ongoing productivity work that is going on within the business. As I think about the early earnings bridge into '27, I guess, I'm trying to get a sense of the biggest contributors to profit growth. And just, I guess, the ability of you to drive incremental productivity as part of that bridge, just how you're thinking about that and how your plans are evolving on that front?

Ruben Baldew

No. Thanks, Steve. It's a good question. And let me also make the link to the question Andrew just made. So we are on track with our EUR 200 million productivity program. Also, if you look what we post in terms of our nonrecurring spend, you see, by the way, that, that has gone down. But what we are spending, we're spending on programs linked to productivity. We announced a restructuring in some of our marketing function.

You have seen that in quarter 2, we announced a factory closure. So we are moving ahead, and it is in line with the planning. And I think the other point to make is also linked to the elasticity is we're not pricing as much as what we used to do like '22, '23. We're using our productivity program to have competitive pricing to make sure that our price index doesn't go up further. We actually have seen our price index going down a bit, and that is because of that productivity program. So I think the overall message is we will continue to drive it, and it is on track, and we'll use it to be competitive in terms of pricing, and we're seeing the first results of that in the market.

Operator

Our next question is from Scott Marks with Jefferies.

Scott Marks

First thing I wanted to ask about, in the prepared remarks, you called out some of the things that helped support your margin expansion in the quarter, and you actually spoke to some, I think, one-time benefits or phasing benefits that might reverse that later this year. So wondering if you can help us understand maybe what those are, what the magnitude is? And how should we think about timing for those to reverse?

Ruben Baldew

Yes. I think -- thanks, Scott. I think the main message is you see a return to gross margin growth. That is driven by pricing kicking in. That's what we also said after our quarter 1 results. So that's fully going to plan. That's it. There's a bit of phasing. So we see a couple of million of phasing in our phasing of A&P and overheads, and we had a bit of variances on some technical stuff related to variances to your recipes, which is also EUR 1 million or EUR 2 million. But overall, I think the gross margin improvement is coming through to pricing, and there's nothing of a phasing effect there.

Scott Marks

Okay. Understood. Appreciate the thoughts there. And then regarding the pricing actions, I think there were some comments in the prepared remarks about your team feeling confident in being able to take incremental pricing as we get to Q4 and into next year, just given what competitors have been doing, what you're seeing on the inflationary front. So just wondering if you can help us understand maybe have you started having those conversations yet? And if so, what's been the response from retailers?

Dominic Brisby

Yes. So we have started having those conversations. And of course, it's worth saying that most of the inflation that we're seeing, so hence, most of the pricing is centered around fish. As I pointed out, we've started to see private label increase already over the past few weeks in a number of countries. And we've used some of this opportunity to allow our own price index to go down slightly. So the price increases we're talking about are cost-justified price increases. And so we feel fairly confident in our ability to take these successfully towards the end of this year.

Scott Marks

Understood. And then maybe if I could just sneak in one more just on capital allocation. You noted a suspension of share buybacks to pay down debt. What leverage ratio do you believe is appropriate in the current environment? And do you have a time line to get there?

Ruben Baldew

Yes. So we're not putting out a leverage ratio. As Dominic said also, when you go look ahead of the next years, we'll come back with our Analyst and Investor Day, which will be this fall. So allow me not to answer that fully. But I just want to be clear also what we made in our prepared remarks that we haven't done buybacks in the last quarter. We continue to do the dividends. We just announced that again, and we made it clear that we now will focus on deleveraging also to bring the interest payments and the interest cost down.

Operator

Our next question is from Jon Tanwanteng with CJS Securities.

Jonathan Tanwanteng

I was wondering if you could go a little bit more into detail on your market share expectations. I think you said it might take a while to get back to neutral in terms of market share. I was wondering when you -- if you have any more specificity on when you expect to get there? Is it Q1 of next year? And is it in your plan at some point to start retaking market share and have growth above market?

Dominic Brisby

So it's absolutely in our plan ultimately to start taking market share. We also -- and we'll be talking through those plans as we come to our Analyst and Investor Day in October. But as I said before, whilst we're making good progress and we certainly expect to be able to deliver better share performance in the third and fourth quarter, it's going to take a little more time to get back to market share neutrality. Of course, that's against the backdrop of very strong category growth as well.

So it is also worth pointing out that if you look at the category, the frozen category in our markets year-to-date, it's up 3.4% in value terms and up 1.6% in volume terms. Even in the last 3 months, by the way, up 2.8% in value and 1.1% in volume. So once we do get to that point that we're holding share or indeed growing share, it can have a significant impact. What we're not doing today is giving clarity about when that will be.

Jonathan Tanwanteng

Okay. Fair enough. And then I was wondering if you could talk about any potential impacts from things like weather or other external issues like water shortages and how that might be impacting supply or demand in the current quarter, if that's anything more than you normally see.

Ruben Baldew

I think Dominic just said it that the last 3 months, we've seen actually the category roughly in line where it is year-to-date. I think 3.4% versus maybe now the last 3 months, 2.8%. So it has come down a bit, but I wouldn't say it's a big difference. So that is one category remains strong. Second point is water shortages, we're not seeing that directly. We're having the harvest now. It's to be seen what that will mean. And again, I need to also come back to the point. The additional inflation we're seeing this year is some fish. If you also look at our cost of goods, a big part is there is related to proteins, which is basically chicken and fish, and that is less related to kind of water shortages.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Peter Saleh with BTIG.

Peter Saleh

Great. Dominic, I wanted to ask, you've been in the seat for a couple of quarters now progressing through this turnaround. What, if anything, has surprised you as you progressed? And maybe how has your thinking changed on the turnaround over the past couple of quarters? Anything you can share would be helpful.

Dominic Brisby

Yes, happy to. I think a couple of things which I was aware of before, but have really been clear over the past couple of quarters. Firstly, the robust health of the category is in. So the fact that the category is in very decent levels of both value and volume growth. I think I was aware of it to some extent before I came, but actually, the fact that this has continued through all the geopolitical uncertainty that we had, the consumer uncertainty we've had and so on, that's been something which has been a very positive thing, which has come through.

Secondly, of course, during this time, I've had the chance to get to know the brands well. I've always known the brand as the consumer, but getting to see the real data behind the brand, the strength of the brand equity versus our competitor brands versus our private label brands has also been a very positive. So essentially, we're in a very strong category, and we have the best brands in the category. So those things are great.

It's also been clear to me though that within Nomad, to make ourselves a much more competitive company and a much more successful company, there have been significant changes which have had to come through. And you'll have seen, particularly in terms of the changes I've made to the leadership team and the executive team of the business. There was a need to bring in some very strong new talent whilst keeping the existing very strong talent that we had. And that's meant making a number of quite significant changes to the top of the organization. And that will also have corresponding changes to the culture that we bring about in the organization. But overall, I've been pretty happy with what I've seen, great category, the best brands in the category and now starting to get the organization to where we need to get to, so we can be really competitive in the market in a way that perhaps we haven't been so much historically.

Peter Saleh

Yes. And then just -- my second question, the retail disruptions appear to be behind you. You've implemented some more price. You've changed some of the leadership. I guess, over the next couple of quarters, what's the next area of focus for you? Is it more around innovation, the marketing side? Just help us understand where you'll be focusing your attention over the next 6 months or so.

Dominic Brisby

So we've now produced what we think is a pretty compelling value creation plan for Nomad for the following years. And that includes really every aspect of the business from innovation to how we manage our marketing approach, how we drive our sales organizations across the business, how we improve our productivity and so on. As you can imagine, there's been an enormous amount of very, very intense work that we've put into this over the past 6 months.

And I think we've got to a point where we consider the plan we've got is a very good one, a plan that we're excited about and makes us quite excited about the future of the business. And that's what we're going to be presenting when we have our Analyst Day in October. But this will cover really every aspect of the business. So it's not the fact that we've had some things to cover for the moment, then we're going to cover others. This will cover the entire spectrum of what we're doing, and we hope that you'll be as excited about it as we are.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Dominic Brisby for closing comments.

Dominic Brisby

Thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in Nomad Foods. I look forward to speaking with many of you in the days and weeks ahead and then seeing many of you at our Analyst Day this October.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.