Aebi Schmidt（AEBI）2026年第2四半期決算説明会：EBITDAは22%増、受注残高は13億ドル近くに

主要なポイント

• 2026年第2四半期の受注高は前年同期比16%増の5億1,600万ドルとなり、受注残高はほぼ20%増の約13億ドルに拡大しました。
• 売上高はオーガニックベースで前年同期比9.4%増の4億9,600万ドルとなりました。北米が11%増、欧州およびその他の地域が7%増となりました。
• 調整後EBITDAは売上高の伸びを上回る前年同期比22%増の4,200万ドルとなり、調整後EBITDAマージンは8.5%に達しました。
• 純負債は4億5,000万ドルとなり、3月末から500万ドル減少しました。レバレッジ倍率は2.7倍に低下し、2025年6月時点の水準を0.5倍以上下回りました。
• 経営陣は2026年通期の売上高および調整後EBITDAの見通し（ガイダンス）を据え置いたものの、年度末のレバレッジ目標を従来の「2倍前後またはわずかに下回る」から「2倍またはわずかに上回る」へ修正しました。
• ザ・シフト・グループ（The Shyft Group）の買収に伴う年間シナジー創出目標（ランレートベース）は4,000万ドル以上に引き上げられました。経営陣は2026年末までに3,700万ドル、2027年にさらに約500万ドルが実現すると見込んでいます。

主要財務データ

事業および業績のハイライト

北米部門は、売上高が11%増、調整後EBITDAが約22%増となりました。ウォークインバンの受注残高の売上換算が主な成長要因となったほか、空港関連および自治体向けの生産も改善しました。ロイヤル（Royal）部門は四半期として過去最高を記録し、サービスボディの生産量は過去平均を20%以上上回りました。

同社は、米国の戦略的顧客との間で7年間・9,600万ドル規模の包括協定（フレームコントラクト）を締結しました。この協定はウォークインバンにとどまらず、貨物バンにも拡大されます。経営陣は、この包括協定が四半期末時点の受注残高には含まれていないことを明確にし、注文書（PO）を受領した時点で初めて受注残高に計上されると説明しました。収益認識は2027年に開始される見込みです。

ジョリエット（Joliet）の改装（アップフィット）センターにおける自治体向け車両の生産は立ち上げを完了し、納入は計画通り進んでいます。アイオワの拠点では商用車の改装を開始しており、続いて自治体向けの活動も開始される見通しです。経営陣は、現在の事業拠点の規模は概ね十分であるものの、さらなる合理化とコスト削減の余地を残していると述べました。

欧州およびその他の地域では、受注高が約20%増、オーガニック売上高が7%増、調整後EBITDAが25%増となりました。業績は、南欧および中欧における需要、粗利益率の向上、アフターマーケット事業、ならびに規律あるコスト管理の恩恵を受けました。

主な受注実績としては、ドイツの高速道路に関する1,100万ドルの契約や、英国の大手空港グループにおける冬季メンテナンス作業用および飛行場清掃機器の優先サプライヤー権の獲得が含まれます。また同社は、空港向けのLADOG車両のクロスセリングや、新型Aebi Terratracの市場投入後の高い顧客関心についても言及しました。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、電話会議において具体的な数値レンジは示さなかったものの、2026年通期の売上高および調整後EBITDAガイダンスを再確認しました。この見通しは、地政学的混乱、関税に関する議論、およびインフレが引き続き正常化に向かうことを前提としています。

2026年末のレバレッジ目標は、従来の「2倍前後またはわずかに下回る」から「2倍またはわずかに上回る」へ修正されました。経営陣は修正の理由として、供給の継続性を維持し材料コストのインフレを軽減するために、安全在庫への一時的な投資や大口発注を行ったことを挙げました。これらの投資は2027年初頭まで続くと予想されています。

直近で実施した値上げの粗利益率への寄与は、膨大な受注残高の存在によって報告上の売上高への反映が遅れるため、主に2026年末および2027年初頭になると見込まれています。

2030年に向けて、経営陣は年間売上高30億ドル以上、調整後EBITDAマージン13%超を目標としています。同社は、製造拠点の最適化、アフターマーケットの成長、買収に伴う残余シナジー、価格設定、製品ミックス、および業務改善に支えられ、マージンの拡大が概ね直線的に進むと見込んでいます。

経営陣は、追加のM&Aを推進する前にデレバレッジ（負債削減）を最優先課題とし続けると述べました。潜在的な分野には、冬季需要への依存度が低い欧州事業、商用車業界の再編機会、米国の清掃車（スウィーパー）資産などが含まれます。

リスクと注視事項

• サプライチェーンの混乱と材料コストのインフレが一時的に粗利益率を圧迫し、在庫投資の増加をもたらしました。
• 経営陣は、イランでの戦争に関連するエネルギー価格の上昇が一部の材料コストに影響を与えたと述べました。
• 同社は「地産地消（ローカル・フォー・ローカル）」の事業モデルを採用しているものの、関税は間接的なリスクとなっています。
• 多額の受注残高が存在することにより値上げの効果発現が遅れ、短期的には仕入れコストの変動に利益率が晒されるリスクがあります。
• シャシーの供給は、ウォークインバン業界にとって引き続き極めて重要です。経営陣は、フォードによるシャシー生産のブルーバード（Blue Bird）への移行計画を前向きに捉えていますが、2028年の開始スケジュールや顧客のFCCCシャシーへの移行状況を注視していく方針です。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

• 9,600万ドルの包括協定：この7年間の協定は現在、受注残高には含まれていません。収益認識は2027年に開始される見込みであり、注文書（PO）を受領した時点で初めて受注残高に計上されます。
• フォードおよびブルーバードのシャシー移行：経営陣は、この取り決めによりシャシー供給が安定し、EPA 27規制対応に伴う大きな供給の停滞リスクが軽減されると考えています。同社はブルーバードと密接な連携を維持しつつ、顧客のFCCCシャシーへの移行状況も注視しています。
• シナジーの創出時期：経営陣は2026年末までに3,700万ドルの統合シナジーを見込んでいます。残りの約500万ドルは、主に2027年にXP Service Body PROの自社生産およびクロスセリングによる収益から発生すると予想されています。
• 2030年に向けたマージン達成の道筋：経営陣は単一の大幅な飛躍（ステップアップ）は想定していません。複数の業務上および商業上の施策を通じて、調整後EBITDAマージン13%超に向けて概ね直線的な進捗を見込んでいます。
• 運転資本：売上高対運転資本比率は2パーセントポイント改善して23.0%となりました。経営陣は、一時的なサプライチェーンの防衛投資を行っているものの、今後2年から2年半以内に約20%を目指す目標を維持しています。

決算説明会 文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Aebi Schmidt Group Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Simone Grancini, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

Simone Grancini

Thank you, Sharon. Good morning, and welcome to the Aebi Schmidt Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

Joining me on the call today are Barend Fruithof, Chairman and Group CEO, who will provide the highlights of the second quarter and outlook and concluding remarks. Steffen Schewerda, CEO, North America; and Henning Schroeder, CEO of Europe and Rest of World, who will detail the performance in the respective segments; and Marco Portmann, Group CFO, who will provide a financial overview.

Today's comments include forward-looking statements subject to the safe harbor language contained in this morning's press release and in Aebi Schmidt's filings with the SEC. And as a reminder, all 2025 comparative figures referenced in today's material, like all figures prior to the July 1, 2025 acquisition, are presented on a combined basis for Aebi Schmidt and the acquired Shyft Group.

Accordingly, all year-over-year comparisons are based on combined 2025 financial information of both companies rather than stand-alone historical results.

And with that, I hand the call over to Barend.

Barend Fruithof

Good morning, everyone. Our second quarter 2026 results are another substantial step forward with significantly improved profitability.

As shown on Slide 5, order intake increased by 16%, order backlog grew 20% and net sales rose by 9% compared with the second quarter of 2025. Most importantly, we delivered a substantial improvement in profitability. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 22% and net income increased by $18 million year-over-year. In other words, profitability increased over proportionally compared to sales, reflecting production ramp-ups and other operational efficiency, the accelerated realization of acquisition synergies and strict cost control.

On Slide 6, I would like to briefly summarize some of our key achievements. First of all, we have now passed the first anniversary of The Shyft acquisition, and we are very proud of what we have accomplished over those last 12 months. In connection with the anniversary, we released our updated Group Strategy 2030, setting out a clear road map towards our ambition of becoming the global leader in specialty vehicles.

On the top line, we continued to build momentum across all major business lines in the second quarter, including securing important orders. In North America, we secured a landmark $96 million walk-in van frame contract, achieved a record quarter at Royal with our service bodies and continued to benefit from strong momentum in airport and municipal.

In Europe, we secured a major German motorway contract, expanded our cross-selling success with leading airport customers and successfully launched the new Aebi Terratrac in our agricultural business.

Turning to Slide 7. One year after the acquisition of The Shyft Group, I'm very happy with our progress. Comparing the 12 months before and after the acquisition, order intake has increased by 26%, adjusted EBITDA has grown by 22% and our EBITDA margin has improved by approximately 120 basis points. We have successfully integrated our operations, expanded our American footprint, simplified our brand architecture and increased our synergy target to more than $40 million on an annual run rate. At the same time, we continued to invest in innovation to strengthen our competitive position across all business lines. This progress reinforces our confidence in the long-term value creation potential for the combined company.

Slide 8 highlights our continued innovation across the group. We recently introduced multiple new products and technologies including the Cleango 550 compact sweeper, our next-generation Terratrac, expanded electric vehicle offerings and importantly, new airport equipment solutions. At the same time, in partnership with Yeti Move, we continue to develop autonomous airport operation solutions for our customers. Together, these initiatives strengthen our market leadership and support our organic growth.

And now I turn the call over to Steffen.

Steffen Schewerda

Thank you, Barend, and good morning, everyone. We are on Slide 10. North America delivered a strong quarter characterized by 3 elements: the top line execution, backlog conversion and overproportional profitability improvement. In Airport and Chassis, order momentum remained robust. This was supported by major project awards. We also continued the expansion of the AtlasCare service network through our partnership with Love's Travel Stops.

Within Goods Transport, we secured a significant 7-year $96 million frame contract with a strategic U.S. customer. This customer has been a partner for more than 2 decades. For the first time, the agreement includes cargo vans in addition to walk-in vans. We view this expansion as a clear sign of trust and a validation of the broader capabilities of the combined portfolio.

Our commercial business continues to benefit from healthy backlog levels. Royal had a record quarter. Here, service body production increased by more than 20% compared to historical averages.

In municipal, we secured multiple Swenson awards. In addition, we successfully completed the Joliet production ramp-up with customer deliveries progressing as planned. Overall, demand remains healthy, and our execution continues to improve across all major product categories.

Turning to Slide 11. Order intake remained strong, and you can see the backlog increased around 27% year-over-year. Sales increased 11% year-over-year. This was driven primarily by successful walk-in van backlog conversion. In addition, we continued to see strong airport and improved municipal output.

Adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately 22%, substantially outperforming sales growth. This reflects improved operating efficiency, completed ramp-ups and strong contributions from both Airport and also Royal.

Overall, we are pleased with the quarter and remain confident in the growth outlook for North America.

And with that being said, I hand the call over to my colleague, Henning Schroeder. Henning?

Henning Schroeder

Thank you, Steffen, and good morning. Europe and Rest of World delivered another strong quarter, driven by exceptional order intake momentum and continued profitability improvement. Our result reflects the strength of our market position and commercial execution.

In Airport, a major U.K. airport group selected Aebi Schmidt as its preferred supplier for winter maintenance and airfield sweeping equipment. In addition, we successfully cross-sold LADOG vehicles into the airport segment. This underlines the potential to penetrate new customer segments, expand the addressable market and unlock additional growth opportunities.

Within municipal, we secured a significant $11 million German motorway contract, strengthening our position with one of Europe's key clients. At the same time, we continue to benefit from increasing demand for electrified municipal vehicles.

In agriculture, the launch of the new Aebi Terratrac generated strong customer interest and highlighted our continued innovation leadership.

Across the region, we continue to see healthy demand levels and strong customer engagement.

Turning to Slide 14. Order intake increased approximately 20% compared with last year, supported by strong demand across Southern and Central Europe as well as several significant contract wins.

Net sales increased by approximately 7%, reflecting continued operational discipline and strong production performance.

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% for the quarter and marked another step forward in our profitability improvement journey. The key drivers remain higher gross margins, strong aftermarket performance and disciplined cost management. I'm proud of the progress our teams continue to deliver.

That concludes my comments, and I'll now turn the call over to Marco.

Marco Portmann

Thank you, Henning, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 16. Order intake increased 16% compared with the second quarter of 2025 and reached $516 million. This performance was supported by growth in both our segments, particularly in Airport and Chassis, municipal and the continued recovery of walk-in vans.

Order backlog increased nearly 20% year-over-year to approximately $1.3 billion and provides good visibility for the remainder of 2026 and beyond.

Moving to Slide 17. Group net sales reached $496 million, representing an impressive organic growth of 9.4% compared with the second quarter of 2025. North America was the main driver with sales up 11% versus last year with walk-in vans as a major driver alongside growth -- strong growth nearly throughout.

Europe and Rest of World delivered a strong 7% organic growth through continued sales execution, further expanding its already strong market share. Overall, the second quarter demonstrates our ability to convert our substantial backlog into profitable revenue growth.

And looking at profitability on Slide 18. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter reached $42 million, representing growth of 22% year-over-year. Group adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 8.5%, reflecting an improvement of around 19 basis points.

Now given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and continued discussions on trade tariffs, which are triggering supply chain disruptions and material cost inflation, we continue to be very cautious in our spending. This tight cost management allowed us to mitigate temporary pressure on our gross margin and supported our realized adjusted EBITDA in this quarter.

Looking ahead, we also expect our recent sales price increases to improve gross margins, which were executed swiftly but are realized with some delay due to the substantial order backlog we carry.

Looking at our reporting net sales segments, North America benefited from improved operating efficiency, complete ramp-ups and stronger backlog conversion. Europe and Rest of World continued its profitability trajectory on a strategic path to expand realized margins. This demonstrates the earnings potential of our platform as net sales continue to grow.

Finally, having a look at our balance sheet on Slide 19. Net working capital improved year-over-year to $449 million despite continued strong sales growth, reflecting ongoing efficiency improvements and disciplined working capital management.

Net debt stood relatively flat at $450 million at quarter end, down $5 million from March with a leverage of 2.7x, down more than half a turn compared to the end of June 2025.

With our profitability and working capital improvements, we are well on track towards our leverage target of 2x by year-end 2026. However, temporary investments in securing our supply chain and protecting our margins, including avoiding outsized material cost increases will slightly impact us through year-end and into the first quarter 2027. Accordingly, we are slightly updating our leverage target for year-end 2026 from previously 2x or slightly below to 2x or slightly above at year-end '26. These temporary investments allow us to continue to support our strong and profitable growth while retaining our path to deleverage the balance sheet, consistent with our capital allocation strategy.

That concludes my comments, and I hand it back to Barend for the closing remarks.

Barend Fruithof

Thank you, Marco. Turning to Slide 21. We are pleased with our second quarter's performance and the continued progress across all areas of our business. Order momentum remains strong, further supporting an already strong order backlog.

Net sales continued to increase with an impressive organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA is growing significantly faster than revenue, demonstrating the benefits of operational improvements, realized synergies and disciplined execution. Based on this performance, we confirm our full year 2026 guidance for net sales and adjusted EBITDA. We remain confident in our ability to deliver profitable growth while advancing our long-term ambition of becoming a $3 billion revenue company with a mid-teen adjusted EBITDA margin.

At the same time, our working capital management continues to improve, supporting cash flow and deleveraging with more than 0.5 turn reduction in leverage year-over-year. We expect at least another 0.5 turn improvement by the end of 2026. That being said, our guidance assumes that geopolitical turmoil, tariff discussions and inflation continues to normalize.

As Marco mentioned, we faced temporary pressure on our gross margins due to unexpected supply chain challenges and material cost pressure. But with our resilient business model and cautious approach, we are able to compensate for these impacts with strict cost management. Additionally, executed price increases will mostly come through by year-end and early 2027.

Now beyond the second quarter update, let me also take a moment to summarize why we believe Aebi Schmidt is uniquely positioned for long-term value creation as shown on Page 22. Our investment case rests on 4 key pillars: First, we are a global leader in specialty vehicles. We have built long-standing customer relationships across our 2 home markets, supported by a portfolio of leading brands and a continuous focus on strengthening our product offering.

Second, we see a compelling growth opportunity today. We have a backlog of almost $1.3 billion, giving us strong visibility. At the same time, we continue to benefit from exposure to attractive end markets, the expansion of our aftersales business and additional opportunities to grow through M&A.

Third, we have multiple levers to drive profitability. We expect to further optimize our manufacturing footprint and improve operational efficiency across the group. These initiatives support sustainable margin expansion over time.

Finally, we have a resilient business model, our local-for-local operating model, geographically diversified platform and strong balance sheet helps us to navigate challenging market environments. These strengths support our 2030 ambitions to delivering over $3 billion in annual sales through organic growth, a market recovery and disciplined M&A while increasing our adjusted EBITDA margin to above 13% through synergies, pricing and mix and continued operational improvements.

That concludes our presentation. I now turn it over to our operator to open up the line for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And our first question today comes from the line of Michael Shlisky from D.A. Davidson.

質疑応答

Michael Shlisky

The large order that you mentioned in the quarter, did you say it was a 7-year order or $96 million order, maybe that was. Was that all in the backlog as of the end of the quarter? Is that entirely for shipment in 2026? And how common is a $90 million-plus order? Is that something that would happen every quarter? Or is this just a very, very unusual onetime thing?

Marco Portmann

Mike, this is Marco. Just quickly repeating the question. We had a bit of an interruption in the line. So the question is the $96 million frame work order, whether that's on backlog by the end of the quarter, how much of that is realized in '26 and whether it's a normal size order or not, if I got that correctly? Yes, definitely.

Michael Shlisky

Yes.

Steffen Schewerda

Michael, this is Steffen. So this is -- yes, this is a 7-year order, $96 million. We will see the first revenue realization in 2027, okay? What is a little bit unusual is that it is not from the big parcel delivery companies. So we are broadening our portfolio here. So we are basically the segments, we see improved order entry from other segments as well. And on top of that, this is more than just walk-in vans. So there were cargo vans added. So we are broadening the portfolio here when we are offering to the customers.

Barend Fruithof

So Mike, and to add one point here, you asked also if that is booked into our backlog, which is not the case. So we have here a very cautious model. Normally, we don't book any frame contracts in our backlog. We just book it once we have received the PO.

Steffen Schewerda

Thanks, Barend. Yes. It's a general rule in our company.

Michael Shlisky

Got it. That's a very important detail. I really appreciate that. And then maybe my follow-up will also be on the walk-in van chassis area. I'm sure you've heard this, there was an announcement last week with about Ford transitioning a good portion of that -- of their walk-in van chassis business. It will still be a Ford powertrain, but most of the design, sales assembly will be handled by Blue Bird going forward.

Can you maybe share on this call, what are your impressions of that deal? Can you tell me what if anything might change at Aebi Schmidt in respect to how you upfit in the step van market? And from what you've heard about their transition plan throughout 2027 and 2028, do you look to see any temporary disruption on your step van business as they change over?

Barend Fruithof

So first of all, thank you very much for this question. So chassis supply remains a critical topic for our industry and for us, and we see the announced move to the Ford chassis production Blue Bird as positive. It stabilizes chassis supply and removes risk of a bigger supply gap linked to necessary EPA 27 certification.

So we have been in close contact with Blue Bird, and we deepen our relationship, and we see that as a support also going forward. What we have seen so far that some of our clients moved from the Ford chassis to the FCCC chassis. So we have to aggressively watch the situation, how that will develop because they have quite an aggressive plan to launch that new chassis in 2028.

But overall, we see that as a positive development also that we still have then 2 providers in the chassis market. So that is it from our perspective. And as you know, we have quite a good momentum in the walk-in van business. And as I said, we see big movement towards the FCCC chassis.

Operator

Our next question today comes from the line of Ben Sommers from BTIG.

Benjamin Sommers

So I wanted to ask a little bit on the 2030 strategic target that you guys gave. It seems like there's an M&A baked in there. Just curious kind of what you're seeing in that market? And just if you could talk a little bit about what's baked into that assumption.

Barend Fruithof

Okay. So thanks a lot for this question. So first of all, it's clearly our goal to first deleverage the company as we have also outlined in our presentation. And then we see a few areas where we can further grow our company through an M&A.

First of all, in Europe. So there, we are still being a bit winter dependent. So there we see opportunities more as we call it, into the summer business.

Secondly, the commercial business is still very much in transformation and consolidation. There we see some opportunities.

And the third point is we still believe that we should have a similar business model in the U.S. And there, we see some opportunities also in the sweeper area.

Benjamin Sommers

Super helpful. Then just kind of wanted to ask a little bit about production or manufacturing capacity. I know we mentioned the new upfit center in Iowa and with Chicago, that now fully operational, and we've had some strong backlog growth here. So just kind of how do you think about manufacturing capacity moving forward? And is there any specific markets that maybe you're targeting moving forward in North America?

Steffen Schewerda

Ben, this is Steffen. So the Joliet upfit center is operational and did ramp up very successfully. So we are on track with our customer deliveries. The one in Iowa, you were referring to, we started the commercial business, the commercial upfitting there that is operational.

Municipal will follow. So we start to utilize our upfit centers more and more for commercial and municipal on the combined base. Despite the geographical white spots, and we elaborated that in previous calls, we are working on, we are pretty well set with our operational footprint, but I want to say that there might be future and there is future potential for more rationalization and cost reductions when it comes to the footprint. Does that answer your question?

Benjamin Sommers

Yes. Super helpful.

Operator

Your next question today comes from the line of Matt Koranda from ROTH Capital.

Matt Koranda

Maybe just could you first unpack some of the temporary impacts that you're investing in, I guess, in the supply chain that are driving the slight shift in the leverage target at the end of the year?

Marco Portmann

Sure. This is Marco speaking, Matt. Well, look, I mean, we have seen that supply chain has been a bit distorted, not in the sense that you would see, let's say, like with pandemic times where things are not available. So that's not the case. We have seen that there's a high risk. There's alongside the high risk also quite a material cost inflation pressure, which was to some degree also a little bit unexpected, right? So because we talk about previously steel, alu lock-ins, how we have essentially also surcharged in certain areas to cover that.

But there are suppliers of suppliers to now come through with some price increases. And you see that also in the gross margin reflected. And to secure that position there, we have slightly increased our safety stocks. We have some elements where we buy a little bit in bigger batches than we would usually do just to get better discounts and things like that. And so that's a bit of a combination of measures that's just making sure that this pressure is countered and mitigated. And it will however lead to some temporary investments, as mentioned, for the next 3 quarters-ish, so basically until early 2027 is what we can see so far.

And despite progressing very nicely with the working capital efficiency, I mean, I should point out, right, if you look at working capital ratio to net sales, a year ago, we were at 25.0% in that ratio in that perspective. Now we are at 23.0%. So we made 2 full percentage points in progress in just a year. The midterm target, I should add as well, which we have given out in the equity story here is to get to 20-ish percent within another 2, 2.5 years. And so we feel we're well on track to that, but this is a temporary hiccup that we're going to take just to make sure the profitability stays where we need it to be.

Matt Koranda

Okay. Very helpful. And then for my follow-up, just looking at the long-term outlook, and the margin target in 2030, it looks like about 400 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion basically over the next 4 years if we're using the midpoint of your guidance this year. How should we think about the step-up through 2030? Is that a linear sort of step-up in progression that you envision? Or is there something a little bit lumpier that we should be taking into account, maybe synergies realized earlier in the period or anything else that we should be thinking about as we look at the track toward the 2030 margin target?

Marco Portmann

Yes. I mean, very good question. And look, the thing is in single measures, there are partly some step-ups, yes. But overall, because it's such a combination of measure, right? It's the operational footprint, it's the extension of the aftersales market. It is the continuation of the final synergies to come in. And I should add on synergies, as we spoke about also today, we have accelerated that further to some degree, we're now nearly done.

We expect to be at $37 million by year-end 2026 with roughly [ $5 million ] to come still in 2027. And the gist of it all, if you put it all together is that no, there's no big step-up through that next couple of quarters and years because the combination of the measures basically means that it's pretty much linearly going to develop until that 13-plus percent that we are giving as a midterm guidance by 2030.

Operator

Our next question today comes from the line of Dave Storms from Stonegate.

David Joseph Storms

Marco, I wanted to hold on that last synergy comment for a second there. I saw that you did increase that target to over $40 million. Could you maybe just help us understand where that's coming from, what that should look like on the ground and maybe any timing around that increase?

Marco Portmann

Yes, sure. I mean, look, we spoke about it before, right? So the initial target was $25 million to $30 million. We rather quickly were able to increase that in 2025. That was mostly driven from additional OpEx. So we essentially have additional potential identified in the organization, but also just with the base OpEx spending that was executed fairly quickly. Again, that's also part of what helps us now to mitigate a little bit that gross margin pressure we see.

And as just mentioned, right, we now expect to see $37 million realized by year-end. The piece that's still to come, that's now ramping up in the third quarter is the XP Service body PRO. That's the service body that we now produce in-house. That was a key consideration of our merger.

And then we also heard examples as well today in the call from Steffen. We see that the cross-selling is now also coming in, right? So that's the piece we expected last, the revenue synergies, the cross-selling synergies that takes its time, getting those new customers, so we are now a nationwide player. But it is coming in exactly as expected, and that's then the part that we expect to see really not just with the momentum and orders coming, but really with revenue and profitability in 2027 as the last piece of it. That's then the roughly $5 million or a big part of the $5 million for the 2027 final upside, how does that Shyft synergy -- merger synergies.

David Joseph Storms

Understood. Very helpful. Maybe switching over to the guidance. I think it was pretty well laid out what could push you on the lower end of the guidance being the geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, inflationary pressures. Just thinking about what you can control in-house, where do you see the greatest leverage points to maybe push you on the higher end of that guidance going into the last few quarters of the year?

Barend Fruithof

Thank you very much for the question. So I mean, the tariffs at the end of the day, you cannot control. But with our resilient business model, which is based on a local-for-local model, I mean, we're not heavily impacted. So we are just indirectly impacted and our competitors as well. So there, we have some challenges because of our big backlog, and that leads then also a bit to a lower gross margin at the moment.

And we are more impacted to be very honest by the Iran war because energy prices went up and that impacted some of our material costs. At the same time, we started to increase our prices. And as I mentioned in my presentation, that will kick in by the end of 2026 and then also beginning 2027. So we will see definitely then also an improvement on the gross margin longer term.

Operator

This concludes the Q&A for today. And I will now hand the call back to Simone Grancini for closing remarks.

Simone Grancini

Thank you, Sharon. I thank everyone for joining today's call and your interest in the Aebi Schmidt Group. As always, please reach out to investor.relations@aebischmidt.com if you have any follow-up questions. And with that, Sharon, please disconnect the call.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.