金価格見通し：ウォーシュ氏のジャクソンホール講演を前に、金の次のターゲットは4,500ドルか4,700ドルか？

From a fundamental perspective, the primary variable affecting gold's trajectory today is Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

According to the Fed's official schedule, Warsh will deliver a keynote address at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28. This marks Warsh's first major speech at Jackson Hole since becoming Fed Chair. As the Fed is currently in a phase of clear policy division, the market will likely search for further clues regarding September rate policy and the Fed's future policy framework.

The latest US PCE data for July showed that headline PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%, while core PCE remained around 3.3%. With inflation persistently above the Fed's 2% target, markets cannot entirely rule out a further rate hike in September. Following the PCE release, the US dollar and US Treasury yields temporarily surged, applying pressure on gold.

Meanwhile, several Fed officials who have arrived in Jackson Hole continued to emphasize inflation risks. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid stated that inflation remains "sticky" and that the Fed must continue working to bring it back to the 2% target. Other officials similarly warned that recent price pressures in energy, housing, and goods mean the Fed cannot prematurely declare victory over inflation.

If Warsh emphasizes in his speech that PCE remains too high and signals that the Fed needs to take further action to ensure inflation returns to 2%, the market could rapidly scale up expectations for a September rate hike. In that scenario, US Treasury yields and the US dollar could rise in tandem, putting notable pressure on non-yielding gold and potentially pushing gold prices below key recent support levels.

Another possibility, however, is that Warsh maintains a cautious stance. Compared to previous Fed Chairs, Warsh has noticeably reduced direct guidance regarding the future policy path since taking office. He previously expressed a reluctance to influence markets through frequent forward guidance, preferring instead to let the bond market play a larger role in shaping financial conditions. If Warsh does not further bolster rate-hike expectations today, hawkish bets previously built up by the market could partially unwind, while weaker Treasury yields and a softening US dollar would favor a gold rebound.

金価格 日足チャート 出所：TradingView

金価格の日足チャートを見ると、足元のローソク足は高値と安値をともに切り上げる明確なパターンを示しており、短期的なトレンドが明確に強気であることを物語っています。また、5日移動平均線と10日移動平均線が144日移動平均線を上抜けてゴールデンクロスを形成したことで、市場の強気モメンタムは一層強化されています。

現在、金価格は2,700ドルを下回る水準で上値の重さに押されて反落しているものの、10日および20日移動平均線は強気の配列を維持しており、短期トレンドが依然として強気であることを示しています。

上値で注目すべき主要なレジスタンスラインは4,700ドルです。金価格がこの水準を上抜けて維持することができれば、4,800ドルやさらには4,900ドルに向けたさらなる上値余地が開けることになります。

下値で注目すべき主要なサポートラインは4,530ドルで、ここは10日移動平均線付近にも位置しており、重厚なサポート帯を形成する可能性があります。この水準を割り込んだ場合、金価格はさらに反落し、4,450ドル付近のサポート水準を試す展開となる可能性があります。

このコンテンツはAIを使用して翻訳され、明確さを確認しました。情報提供のみを目的としています。