Rivian Stock Forecast: RIVN Bounces Off $11.37 After Q3 Beat, With $12.65 the First Test

Revenue rose 38% to $2.16 billion, above the roughly $2 billion analysts expected. The adjusted loss, which excludes items such as stock-based pay, narrowed to $0.48 a share from $0.65 a year ago, against expectations of about $0.61 to $0.62. Adjusted EBITDA, a rough measure of operating cash profit, was a loss of $435 million, better than the roughly $576 million loss expected. The net loss narrowed to $913 million from $1.17 billion.

Deliveries rose 46% to 19,248 vehicles, and production reached 19,751. CEO RJ Scaringe said the R2, Rivian's cheaper midsize SUV, was its best-selling model by volume in the quarter.

Automotive revenue rose 36% to $1.55 billion, helped by about $80 million more in regulatory credit sales, credits Rivian sells to other carmakers that need them to meet emissions rules. The car business still posted an $80 million gross loss, though that was narrower than $130 million a year ago despite about $120 million of extra costs from ramping the R2.

Software and services revenue rose 45% to $605 million, about 28% of total revenue, with a $256 million gross profit. More than half of that revenue, $354 million, came from Rivian's joint venture with Volkswagen. That profit lifted consolidated gross profit to $176 million.

Rivian raised its 2026 delivery outlook to 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles from 65,000 to 70,000. It improved its adjusted EBITDA loss forecast by $100 million at the midpoint, to about $1.8 billion, and cut its capex plan by $300 million at the midpoint. Interim CFO Derek Mulvey said the company expects the R2 "will help us achieve a positive automotive gross margin exit rate for the year."

Free cash flow, the cash left after operating costs and capital spending, was negative $1.12 billion in the third quarter, worse than negative $421 million a year earlier. Operating cash outflow of $758 million reflected lower deferred revenue and higher R2 inventory purchases. Rivian says it has about $13 billion of total available liquidity, including targeted future capital commitments, to fund the R2 ramp and its Georgia factory.

Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $17 target, calling the recent decline an attractive entry point as Rivian moves toward positive automotive margins. Mizuho cut its target to $10 from $13 and kept an Underperform rating.

That shift in sentiment shows clearly on the daily chart. Buyers firmly defended $11.37, the bottom of the recent selloff and close to the 52-week low, after RSI dipped into oversold territory. Even so, RIVN still trades below the 50-day EMA at $13.98 and the 100-day EMA at $14.80, exponential moving averages that give more weight to recent prices, so the bigger trend remains bearish.

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, has climbed to about 37, and the MACD, another momentum indicator, is nearing a bullish signal-line crossover while remaining below zero. Both suggest selling pressure is easing.

RIVN Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The first hurdle is $12.65, near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the first Fibonacci level of the recent decline, where a bounce often meets selling. A daily close above it could open $13.45, followed by the 50-day EMA at $13.98. On the downside, a drop below $11.37 would cancel the rebound and could send RIVN toward $10.38.

I'm cautiously bullish in the short term while RIVN holds $11.37, with targets at $12.65 and $13.45.

Key Levels

• Last close: $12.16, up 6.20% on October 30
• Support: $11.37, $10.38
• Resistance: $12.65, $13.45, $13.98, $14.80
• RSI: 37.45, rising from oversold
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $12.65
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $11.37

Why did Rivian stock rise after earnings?

Rivian beat estimates with revenue up 38% to $2.16 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.48 a share, raised its 2026 delivery guidance to 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles, and said the R2 was its best-selling model. Jefferies also upgraded the stock to Buy.

What is the Rivian stock forecast now?

The short-term bias is cautiously bullish above $11.37 on the daily chart. A daily close above $12.65 targets $13.45 and $13.98, while a drop below $11.37 opens $10.38.

Rivian's quarter showed real progress, and the stock rose on a day the wider market fell, but cash burn worsened and the car business still loses money. The level that matters is $11.37. In my view, holding it keeps the rebound alive toward $12.65 and $13.45, while a break below it would put $10.38 in play.