SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: SpaceX Short Bets Surge, Musk Warns Short Sellers May Pay the Price, Can the Stock Price See a Reversal?

TradingKey - Recently, SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk publicly warned investors shorting the company, stating that institutions holding large short positions in SpaceX for the long term have an "extremely low probability of survival." Musk also noted that if SpaceX achieves its established development goals, the company's long-term value still has substantial room for growth.

Musk's remarks come as bearish bets against SpaceX are rising rapidly. According to estimates by financial data firm S3 Partners, approximately 206 million SpaceX shares were shorted this week, representing about 32% of the float, with the short position valued at around $25 billion. In comparison, the number of shorted shares was about 185 million last week and only about 40 million a month ago, reflecting a significantly widening divergence among investors regarding the company's current valuation and short-term stock price outlook.

SpaceX's stock price once rose above $225 after its listing in June, but has since steadily declined, nearly halving from its peak and briefly dipping below its IPO price of $135. Market concerns are mainly focused on the progress of Starship testing, the company's high valuation, and the potential selling pressure from the upcoming expiration of post-IPO lock-up shares.

Going forward, both bulls and bears will focus on two major catalysts. SpaceX plans to attempt another Starship test flight on July 23 and will release its first quarterly earnings report since listing on August 4 after the U.S. market close. This debut report will, for the first time, present to the public market a comprehensive view of Starlink revenue, launch business growth, capital expenditures, and losses, which could also determine whether the market is willing to continue granting the company a premium valuation.

In terms of stock price impact, if the Starship test flight or earnings report significantly beats expectations, forced short covering could drive a rapid rally in the stock price. However, if the test flight is delayed again, earnings miss expectations, or the lock-up expiration increases market supply, the stock price could remain under pressure. Musk's warning has heightened market attention, but SpaceX's subsequent performance will ultimately depend on whether its operational data and major projects can progress as scheduled.

SPCX Daily Stock Price Chart, Source: TradingView

According to the daily chart of SPCX, after breaking below the key support level of $150, the stock price has recently been consistently suppressed by the 5-day moving average. Although it snapped a seven-day losing streak on Tuesday, it failed to break through the resistance of the 5-day moving average, indicating that while market sentiment has recovered somewhat, it remains tilted toward the bears.

Currently, the primary resistance level to watch on the upside is $130, followed by $133. If the stock price can break through and hold above this level, further room for a rebound will open up, with the potential to test the $150 resistance level on the upside.

On the downside, if the stock price falls below its previous low of $119.68, it may test the support level at $110. A further decline could push the stock price toward the $100 psychological level.