Largest IPO Roadshow in History Sets Sail. Wall Street Touts SpaceX AI Revenue to Grow Hundredfold as S&P Denies Fast-Track Index Entry

As the largest IPO in history officially launches, Wall Street is drumming up enthusiasm for SpaceX with unprecedented fervor, and the roadshow events have been spectacular. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley have hosted major client roadshows to attract investors for SpaceX. Two top SpaceX executives—President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen—have been shuttling between major investment banks to personally pitch the deal to wealthy investors.

On that day, Elon Musk himself also participated via video link in an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, engaging with the bank's clients.

Currently, a total of 23 banks and brokerages are involved in the IPO sales efforts, with underwriting fees alone expected to exceed $500 million.

According to people familiar with the SpaceX IPO roadshow, market subscription demand for the offering is "extremely robust." Analysts leading the IPO are fielding up to 20 calls per day from investors, whereas even for high-profile IPOs in the past, there were typically only 10 to 15 daily inquiries.

Goldman Sachs' research team is extremely optimistic about the performance of SpaceX's artificial intelligence division, projecting that SpaceX's total revenue will reach $474 billion by 2030, with AI revenue surging approximately 100-fold to nearly $322 billion by then.

Research analysts at Evercore ISI expect SpaceX's AI division to generate $755 billion in revenue by 2031, compared to just $3.2 billion for the division last year. The firm's research team believes that by 2031, SpaceX's total revenue will surpass the $1 trillion mark, compared to 2025 revenue of just $18.7 billion.

Meanwhile, S&P Dow Jones Indices released its consultation results, announcing that it will maintain existing rules and rejecting the request to shorten the 12-month "seasoning period" for newly listed companies; it will also not exempt profitability thresholds or public float requirements based on company size.

This means that SpaceX, which is preparing for an IPO with a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, will be ineligible for the S&P 500 for at least one year after listing and must still satisfy profitability and float requirements.

On April 30 this year, S&P Dow Jones Indices launched a public consultation regarding the "treatment of mega-cap companies." According to the consultation document, "mega-cap" is defined as a total market capitalization no lower than the 100th largest constituent of the S&P Total Market Index, or approximately $112 billion.

The consultation proposal suggested shortening the seasoning period to six months and providing full exemptions from profitability and float thresholds for mega-cap companies. The consultation period ended on May 28, and had the rules been approved, they were set to take effect before the market open on June 8—at which time SpaceX planned to list on Nasdaq on June 12.

However, S&P ultimately chose to maintain its regulatory baseline, making no exceptions for massive valuations. S&P Global stated clearly in its announcement: "Exemptions for financial viability, listing duration, and investable weight factor requirements should not be granted based solely on market capitalization."

The decision came as a surprise to the market, as Nasdaq and FTSE Russell had previously led the way in adjusting rules to cater to giant IPOs. Nasdaq modified its rules to allow large IPOs to join the Nasdaq-100 Index after just 15 trading days, while FTSE Russell reduced the waiting period to five trading days.

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: "I am indeed surprised, but S&P is the market leader and has the power to swim against the tide."

SpaceX's IPO plans happen to cross every one of the three "red lines" in S&P 500 rules. In 2025, despite the company's revenue growing 33% to $18.67 billion, it recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion, failing to meet the profitability requirement. The company expects to float only about 5% of its shares, far below the 10% minimum threshold. Furthermore, based on the standard seasoning period, SpaceX will be unable to join the S&P 500 for at least a year post-IPO.

In fact, not only SpaceX, but also OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing for IPOs while currently in a loss-making state. All three companies are expected to rank among the largest U.S. companies by market cap after listing, yet none meet current S&P standards for profitability and public float.

Furthermore, SpaceX has officially launched a dedicated IPO website, spacexipo.com, for all retail investors, a move that marks a new step in the space exploration company's listing process.

In addition to the prospectus and an investor Q&A section, SpaceX has provided roadshow presentations on the website for investor review, ensuring that retail investors have information access equal to that of large institutional investors.

On the new website, SpaceX emphasized: "We are building the systems and technologies necessary to achieve global connectivity across Earth and the wider universe, to explore the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars."

Notably, this practice breaks from traditional IPO disclosure conventions. Generally, a company's IPO information is disclosed via exchange or regulatory websites; SpaceX's creation of an independent IPO website specifically for retail investors highlights Elon Musk's efforts to ensure a smooth listing and raise the targeted capital.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.