Intel (INTC) Price Forecast: Two Days From Earnings; 317% YoY Gain, 12% Options Swing

The latest positive Intel story is that Apple and Microsoft have officially joined Intel Foundry's 18A process early design partners. HSBC analyst Frank Lee, who has a $200 price target on Intel, thinks that Intel will get formal design commitments in the second half of 2026 and that Intel should not miss the chance to take advantage of foundry at these valuations. For Intel, this is a bigger story than just a normal foundry partnership. Apple and Microsoft are the top two buyers of custom silicon in the West. 

Apple designs custom chips for its Mac and iPhones, and Microsoft designs its Azure Maia AI chips. If either of those companies designs chips with Intel's 18A and places a commercial order, Intel Foundry will go from being a cost center to a profitable external revenue stream. That is the most important driver of Intel's long-term valuation.

18A-P is Intel's most advanced version of its best process technology, and it entered the risk production phase of its production cycle this week. Risk production comes after development but before high-volume manufacturing and is essentially Intel making production-quality wafers and looking for potential yield and process-variation problems across larger production volumes. It is a necessary step before Intel will be able to ship chips to commercial customers. The process has already started to get used commercially, with the 18A process being used to manufacture Intel's Core Ultra Series 3 AI PC chips. 

That is a product that is currently being sold. 18A-P improves on that with better performance and better thermal characteristics. Taken together, Intel has 18A that is ready for commercial production, a potential upgrade to 18A-P, and a design partnership with the two largest buyers of silicon in the Western world. It adds up to the main pillar of the reason why Lee has a $200 price target for Intel and why a turnaround seems possible in the semiconductor maker's long-term outlook.

Intel management is guiding to second-quarter revenue of between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion, non-GAAP earnings of about $0.20 a share, and adjusted gross margins of 39%. Consensus estimates second-quarter revenue at $14.4 billion and non-GAAP earnings at $0.22 a share. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue came in at $13.6 billion, a 7% increase year over year, non-GAAP earnings of $0.29 a share, and Data Center and AI revenue of $5.1 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase. 

The bar on revenue is higher in the second quarter with the consensus estimate midpoint implying a 12% increase, but the consensus estimate is for a lower non-GAAP earnings figure. That is consistent with the seasonal nature of Intel's business and the investment cycle Intel management has discussed in the past.

While investors should be watching earnings-per-share results, the most important number for Intel this week could be the gross margin number and whether it meets the guidance of 39%, as well as Data Center sales versus the $5.5 billion mark required for sustained 20%+ expansion. Intel could also get some commentary around its potential foundry revenue in the third quarter or when its new commercial-foundry customers could be locked in. 

With the SOXX in a bear market and Intel down 32% from its recent highs of $142.35, an asymmetric trade is setting up this week. Intel could rally sharply if it simply hits the $14.4 billion consensus revenue estimate and provides constructive commentary around its foundry business. 

Prior to earnings, Jim Cramer expressed a preference for Intel over Nvidia, citing Intel's compressed valuation and improved foundry prospects. The 12% implied move that options are pricing in suggests that investors see both the upside potential and the downside risk inherent in this scenario.

INTC, which trades at $97.50, sits inside a descending channel on the 4-hour chart. The 50-period EMA at $107.39 is above the price and also falling. The 100-period EMA is at $108.72, which is also above the price and also falling. The RSI is hovering around 40, just below the 50 midpoint, after bouncing up from recent lows. $98.97 is the resistance level that INTC will need to breach and hold above to give the initial signal for a breakout of the channel.

This level also acts as the first resistance level that needs to be broken. 

INTC Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The first key resistance level to keep in mind is $107 to $109, which is where the EMAs are converging. This is considered a major resistance level on this chart and for price action to be bullish it needs to break and hold above the EMAs. $94 to $95 acts as the immediate support levels. If the price falls below the $89.45 level, it will test the next support level at $82.72.

Key Data Summary

• Earnings Date: Thursday, July 23, After the Close
• Conference Call Time: 2:00 PM PDT
• Street Expectations: Revenue $14.4B (+12% Year Over Year) | Non-GAAP EPS $0.22 | Gross Margin ~39%
• 18A - Apple and Microsoft are the official confirmed 18A Design Partners for Intel Foundry. 18A-P in risk production
• Options Implied Move: 12% Up/Down, The historical average after earnings is 15.4%
• Resistance Levels: The first resistance level to look out for is $98.97. The next resistance level is the EMA cluster ranging from $107 to $109. The trend will need to hold above the EMAs in order for a trend reversal.
• Support Levels: $94 to $95 Support Level. Below $89.45 and the next Support Level is $82.72.

What Is Intel 18A and Why Do Apple and Microsoft Matter as Partners?

The 18A process is Intel's most advanced process node. It is based on RibbonFET gate-all-around transistors and the PowerVia backside power delivery technology. Currently, this process is commercially producing Intel’s Core Ultra Series 3 AI PC processors. On this week, 18A-P went into risk production. This process will give better performance and thermal behavior. 

It is very significant that Apple and Microsoft are Intel Foundry's first official design partners for this process. Both companies have very significant volumes of their proprietary silicon in development. Apple has a huge silicon volume, for example, in its Mac and iPhone platforms. Microsoft also designs silicon for data center chips supporting its Azure AI infrastructure.

This announcement does not necessarily commit to any production volumes, yet Frank Lee from HSBC says that it is very possible that Intel Foundry will enter into formal customer commitments by the second half of 2026, and then Intel Foundry can finally transition from being a company cost center to being a profitable growth engine.

With Intel selling at $97, Intel is still 32% off its high of $142.35 for this fiscal year. But the stock is up 317% over the past 12 months. Intel is reporting second quarter earnings tomorrow, Thursday. Intel has two positive stories over this past week. Apple and Microsoft were announced as Intel Foundry 18A initial design partners, and 18A-P is in risk production on schedule. 

The 12% expected price swing that the options market is pricing in seems to reflect actual asymmetric upside expectations, now reset but with a better Intel Foundry narrative to support the bullish thesis. Intel's earnings report tomorrow, Thursday, is going to be pivotal. 

The stock is going to need to at least break even on revenue expectations with $14.4 billion or above, gross margin needs to at least meet expectations at 39%, the Data Center report needs to at least be $5.5 billion or above, and there needs to be at least an external foundry commitment announced this quarter. The stock will need to trade above $98.97 to break the channel. The EMA cluster between $107 and $109 will be the next significant hurdle. If the stock drops below $89.45, the stock is on its way to $82.72.