Travel Investing Outlook: Airlines Set Records as Global Travel Accelerates

The earnings report for U.S. airline companies clarifies what we know about airports today: increasing numbers of travelers and increasing amounts spent by those travelers will lead to even further growth.

Delta (DAL) reported that for the year 2025, it had record revenue and was the top-performing airline with revenues of $58.3 billion. 

United (UAL) had similar strong performances to Delta; it reported revenues of $59.1 billion and therefore is in the same situation.

American Airlines (AAL) exceeded all analysts’ projections for fourth quarter revenues of $14 billion.

Southwest (LUV) had a one-month activity record for October to December with 3.8 billion of revenues attributable to travel, resulting in a quarter-over-quarter increase from the prior year of 7.6 percent.

Increasing shopping volumes are attributed to business travelers as well as general business travel, and therefore, it is no surprise to airline management that the travel sector remains a good investment.

Airlines continue to report hard data that mirrors their experience of recovering from the impact of COVID-19. 

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), there will be an estimated 1.52 billion international tourist arrivals in 2025, an increase of nearly 60 million visitors over 2024 and an increase of 4% relative to 2019, and will return to an approximate 5% compound rate of growth for the next several years after experiencing that growth from 2009 through 2019. 

The World Travel / Tourism Council (WTTC) is projecting an economic contribution from the Travel & Tourism sector of an estimated $11.7 trillion in 2025 (equivalent to 10.3% of global GDP), while total international travelers' expenditures will be projected to be an estimated $2.1 trillion, exceeding the previous record spending level of $1.9 trillion recorded in 2019. 

This volume of business is not indicative of a fragile recovery; rather, it demonstrates that Travel & Tourism businesses have returned to normal operations and are beginning to compound.

As we look ahead, the future of travel on a global scale will be driven by Asia.

According to a recent research report from both Google and Alvarez & Marsal, worldwide international travel will triple by 2050, growing from 1.7 billion to approximately 3.5 billion international trips annually and resulting in $6 trillion of total spend and $4.2 trillion of additional economic value created over the next 25 years.

The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is the focal point.

APAC will see more new middle-class (totaling 3.2 billion out of an estimated 5 billion worldwide) than any other region in human history, and will take under 2035 to do so. Higher incomes lead to increased mobility. 

APAC will surpass Europe as the world's largest provider of international tourism, as recently evidenced by flights booked for this year's Chinese Spring Festival compared to the previous year, increasing nearly 400%.

Demand has not only increased in terms of quantity; it has also improved in terms of quality. 

In Europe, visitors from abroad have increased by 3.2% in 2025, while visitor spending has increased by close to 10% in the same timeframe. 

This large difference in increases shows how travelers have changed recently. They are not just returning; they are returning with large amounts of money, staying in premium cabins, in better hotels, and participating in more activities, all of which would create margins and improve the case for investment in travel.

A notable exception to the above trends to pay attention to is Canadian visitors to the U.S., who reported an approximate decrease of 20% during January through October of 2025.

However, based on the release of 2026 data from Statistics Canada in January of this year, the decline for Canadian visitation to the U.S. is actually much steeper, reporting a 28% decrease compared to 2024 visitation levels. 

Furthermore, according to a survey released by Blue Cross, approximately 76% of Canadians are now less likely to travel to the U.S., and many of the individuals who responded attributed this to President Trump's negative political rhetoric directed towards Canada.

Real dollars (i.e., cash) are being used by institutional capital to vote for investment via their financial commitments toward hotels in the United States, which we estimate will total approximately $24 billion in transaction volume in 2022, an increase of 17.5% compared to last year, indicating strong confidence in cash flows and growth potential of the sector. 

Analysts predict that the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will take place in every U.S. city that has a significant airport, will serve as a timing catalyst for room revenue generation in host cities. Analysts | predict that room revenue will increase at host cities by way of a variation of mid-double digits. 

According to projections made by experts on the tourism industry in Europe, international visitor arrivals are estimated to grow by approximately 6.2%. In addition, the long-haul travellers arriving in Europe are expected to grow by 9%, providing an additional boost to the European region's leadership position in total amount of visitor expenditure.

The throughline is evident when you consider the enormous multi-decade rise of the APAC middle class, record amounts of visitors travelling to Canada, record airline profits, and forecasts for the future indicating an unprecedented travel investment opportunity. 

The macro environment is not just a temporary spike in boom times; it represents a breakdown in travel as we know it. This breakdown in travel is a long-term occurrence and will continue to grow substantially through the coming generations as a result of an increasing number of people travelling internationally and spending money to do so.