Is Rigetti Computing a Buy in 2026? Analyzing Volatility and Valuation

Rigetti Computing, a vertically integrated quantum computing provider, approaches quantum computing from an overall perspective. Therefore, instead of being a separate designer of the quantum software, or a separate builder of quantum hardware (chips), Rigetti does both by creating all the components of quantum computing - the QPU, the hardware systems that operate the QPUs, and the cloud software that allows users to interact with QPUs.

The two primary construction work architectures have emerged thus far: IonQ utilizes laser-controlled trapped ions, while Rigetti utilizes superconducting qubits, which are microwave-frequency circuits that leverage the tunneling of Cooper pairs within anharmonic LC oscillators.

On one hand, superconducting (SC) qubits should allow access to much faster operations and (in principle) easier and cheaper building of computers on a larger scale without having to use expensive cryogenic cooling. However, on the other hand, it introduces many additional costs and complexities due to the need for cryogenic cooling.

As for trapped Ions (T-I) systems, however, it could conceivably allow for higher levels of operations fidelity and lower error rates but require the constant influx of exact laser calibration by specialists and are generally slower in the completion of all normal tasks compared to SC qubits.

The timeframe for determining which type of architecture will prevail is still many years away. Both architects (IonQ and Rigetti) have to contend with the same industrial realities. 

Quantum machines are much larger in size, much more expensive to manufacture, require far more energy to operate, and generally have a much larger number of errors than classical computers, meaning that the majority of machines currently installed belong mostly to universities or to companies producing research-grade workloads rather than companies operating on traditional high-volume production workloads. 

There will not be clarity for some time; the field of quantum computing remains crowded with early adopters (many single private companies like RGTI or IonQ), activities led by incumbents (Microsoft and Alphabet) with many resources at their disposal, and we will likely see many failures among those companies that are focused on just one area of development. 

Monetary investments in diversified portfolios, regardless of whether they are pre-existing technology companies or those focusing on quantum, are better than investing directly into equities of a single quantum company like RGTI.

Attraction to the quantum computing sector is driven by the growth opportunities available to investors. A recent estimate from Grand View Research projects that Quantum Computing will experience a CAGR of 20.5% from 2025-2030, while McKinsey further estimates that the Quantum Computing market could exceed $100 billion by 2035. With these estimates of tremendous opportunity for growth, the stock of RGTI is still a consideration for investment.

Investing in RGTI has felt like being on a roller coaster. While Rigetti's prospects were promising after an increase in the quantum computing market in late 2024, entering 2025 with strong momentum due to optimism in the quantum computing sector, that momentum quickly vanished. 

Following a statement from Nvidia's CEO in January 2025 indicating that Quantum computing would take many more years before being practical, RGTI stock price fell almost 60% in January from its opening price for 2025. Following the retraction of that statement by the CEO, the stock price of RGTI once again participated in the overall rise of all stocks in the sector by hitting an October high, only to be subsequently affected once again by a macro environment that caused RGTI stock to decrease in value.

RGTI stock currently is about 60% below that October high but is still up approximately 45% during 2025. RGTI shares had soared about 3,056% over a three-year period by the belief that billionaire hedgies were taking positions during Q3 2025. The tale of RGTI’s stock price is more about incredibly high gains over several years being pulled back by periods of severe volatility outlining the risk versus potential reward for RGTI investors heading into 2026.

In 2025, Rigetti's Novera system orders that total $5.7 million have been placed, with delivery to occur in early 2026. A new 3-year, $5.8 million contract has been awarded to Rigetti by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory for the development of a superconducting quantum network using QphoX. RGTI became an early participant in Nvidia's new NVQLink program for the integration of quantum computing with artificial intelligence.

Rigetti's vertically-integrated approach to quantum computing provides them with a means of experimenting much more effectively & expediting their overall process through the ability to control more of the production process. Their vertically-integrated method of production allows Rigetti to develop products more rapidly than most other quantum computing companies.

However, the fact that Rigetti was not selected to move onto Phase B of the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative does pose some concerns. As noted previously, they did not make it onto DARPA's shortlist for Phase B whereas major competitors IonQ and IBM did. For a company like Rigetti that is so heavily dependent on funding from outside sources, this is a significant issue. This isn't parametric of Rigetti's long-term success, but it is going to create a substantial challenge and barrier for them in the immediate and will have a negative impact on their potential to attract new investors in the future and the "story" regarding them due to how many investors see the DARPA initiative as a valuable means for establishing the top contenders in the market and those in the lower-tier.

In 2025, Rigetti made significant advances with its hardware. It showed that it built the largest multi-chip quantum computer to date and rolled out a 100+ qubit chiplet setup that had a 99.5% fidelity rating. Speed-wise, superconducting qubits, when compared to trapped ions, are said to operate up to 10,000 times faster for certain algorithm types, which is a tremendous advantage for implementing a specific type of algorithm.

Rigetti has explicit targets. By the end of 2026, its goal is to have a 150+ qubit configuration with 99.7 % fidelity and by the end of 2027 to anticipate a 1,000+ qubit configuration with 99.8% fidelity.

Rigetti was added to the NVQLink platform, which is intent on connecting quantum computers to artificial intelligence supercomputers. This would create a viable pathway to deliver solutions on real production jobs, pending maturing of both hardware technologies. 

Fidelity is the problem. Data scientists view systems at 99.5% as incredibly unreliable due to the number of errors; thus any increase in error-correction must be greater than ~99.9% in order for the additional cost to be 'worth it.' Rigettis Cepheus-1-36Q, with its 36-qubit, multi-chip configuration and 99.5% fidelity, is an example of both progress and the significant distance to achieving fault tolerance. 

Therefore, the narrative for RGTI Investors must be clear: there is undeniable momentum within RGTI; however, the thresholds necessary for RGTI to be deemed useful in a manufacturing environment are extraordinarily high.

The story of the share price of RGTI turns ominous when it comes to the valuation of the shares. RGTI is currently valued based on the hopes of the investors rather than through traditional measurements or metrics. 

The trailing twelve-month sales for RGTI is approximately $7.5MM and has decreased 43% over the last three years. In Q3 2025, RGTI earned $1.9MM in revenue, a decline of 18% over the previous year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $5.2MM, a 39% decrease from the same period during 2024. The net income (GAAP) for the first three quarters of 2025 was $198MM, excluding one-time charges and non-cash items, the net income loss was $39MM.

On November 6, 2025, the company's cash and short-term investments were $600 million and provide plenty of time to operate at the current rate of loss. However, the company could face dilution if it is unable to grow going forward.

The company's market cap has fluctuated between $7 billion and $8.5 billion in 2025.

The price-to-sales ratio remains extraordinarily high, greater than 1,000 times the company's trailing sales. This multiple is much higher than Nvidia's ~24x price-to-sales ratio; in fact, the company's multiple is also higher than Palantir's multiple of ~127x price-to-sales ratio.

Fast-growth companies have high valuations, but Rigetti's 2025 revenues dropped, meaning that the majority of the premium attached to Rigetti's shares should be due to anticipated future growth. Hence, many believe there will be a Rigetti valuation reset in 2026. Rigetti's shares have decreased by 53% since the stock price reached its all-time high in October and would need to fall a significant amount more before it could compare to its most aggressive peer companies.

The investment outlook for Rigetti (stock ticker RGTI) could further improve if Rigetti delivers the Novera systems on schedule during the first half of 2026; as well as converting pilots into follow-on contracts, thereby growing recognized revenue. On top of that, there are other positive indicators which may improve Rigetti (RGTI) stock price, such as meeting or exceeding the goal of 150+ qubits with 99.7% fidelity by year-end, moving closer to achieving 1,000+ qubits by 2027, or securing marquee contracts to compensate for the DARPA miss and solidifying the value of the roadmap, or achieving a more positive macroeconomic environment (i.e., renewed risk appetite) which may result due to growing interest in quantum-AI narratives via NVQLink.

Loss of credibility damages commercialization timelines and investor enthusiasm when the fidelity and scale targets slip. Rising operational expenditures create a need for capital raises and dilution while revenues remain minimal. Phase B not being funded by DARPA may act as an indicator of selection-related risk for all DARPA sponsored programs/Agencies. Other more successful players in this space (IonQ, IBM, etc.) will continue to take greater shares of the market while, as previously discussed, multiple compression from 4-digit price/sales ratios down to "expensive only" will continue to negatively affect the stock price of RGTI regardless of the progress made with the technology.

Investors generally believe that, by 2026, the sector's risk appetite will be reflected in RGTI's performance. RGTI will likely go up or down with other companies in the sector according to positive or negative press, but once there is a regular cadence of contract awards and improved demo quality, the valuation of RGTI will stabilize.

You believe that in the next 10 years, quantum will become commercially viable and superconducting architectures will soon start scaling successfully, therefore RGTI has an asymmetric upside, provided that you can handle the potential for a significant drawdown and have patience over an extended time period. Most should size positions small, and patience should be measured over years, rather than quarters.

If this sounds like too much risk for you, you may want to consider Diversified Quantum ETFs or exposure through established technology companies with greater and more stable cash flow that are developing quantum programs. Most investors do not have sufficient time or background to adequately compare error rates, compilation stacks, and benchmarking details; using programs such as DARPA to filter out potential candidates will help save you time in selecting names, even though it won't give you a 100% accurate representation of the potential winners of the future.

Rigetti has the components for accelerated development - in terms of vertical integration, strategic roadmap and clear evidence of commercial interest - however there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding execution, due to the need for higher fidelity, larger-scale systems as well as more contracts. RGTI is valued at a very high multiple and this is based on expectations without the benefit of a revenue stream or even a small portion of profitability; therefore, 2026 will be a testing ground for RGTI. If RGTI executes well, they will continue to retain this high multiple, if they do not execute, they will lose the premium associated with having a high multiple.

Rigetti is a good speculative investment for investors who are willing to accept the inherent risks involved. Most investors, however, will want to monitor the fidelity prints and the cadence of contracts being signed and the delivery of the company’s Novera systems in the first half of 2026; these will ultimately be the most telling indicators of how well Rigetti has executed on their strategy.