Joby Aviation Stock (JOBY) Analysis: Why 2026 is the Ultimate Catalyst

An investment thesis can be established by first understanding the company's primary identity, which is to create a new mode of transportation through the development of an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for passenger use. Joby Aviation based in California was founded in 2009 by JoeBen Bevirt and has spent more than 10 years creating this new class of vehicle.

The cornerstone of their innovation lies in the Joby S4 aircraft, which is based on several major technologic advantages:

Extreme Quietness: With six tilting rotors, the S4 is about 100 times quieter than a standard helicopter at takeoff and landing (averaging ~65 decibels). Because of this extreme quietness, the S4 can be used in urban environments without disturbing nearby residences.

Zero-Emission Performance: As a completely electric vehicle, the S4 is a zero-emissions operating environment and helps to support global sustainability objectives, placing Joby in the forefront of the green aviation sector.

High-Speed Connectivity: The airplane can carry a pilot and up to four ideally placed passengers at speeds of up to 200 mph (~322km/h). Its maximum range is more than 100 miles on one charge.

The Service Ecosystem: In addition to making their aircraft, Joby is also creating a complete Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) System. Part of this system includes their proprietary software for ridesharing and the creation of a multi-stacked network of vertiports for the app-to-passenger experience.

In addition to being an aircraft manufacturer, Joby is creating an entirely new form of transportation through flight, which will allow millions of people to spend less time in traffic-free areas and more time in their cities.

Joby’s main competitor in this space is Archer Aviation. Unlike Archer, Joby is not just planning to become an eVTOL OEM; it envisions itself as a complete transportation service provider, meaning that Joby will provide its services directly to customers or end-users and/or through government contracts such as contracts with the United States Air Force (as noted in the company’s SEC filings).

The company has set 2026 as the year in which it expects to achieve its first certification, which is only the initial step toward achieving all required certifications. Joby must also create a full transportation ecosystem and develop or extend a transportation system so that the company will be able to sell the required number of transports to meet expected customer demand. This is the reason for Joby's nickname, "Uber of the Sky." However, this nickname only provides a glimpse into Joby's entire business model and the growth potential associated with it.

Through the partnership between Uber and Joby, Uber made a $125 million investment in Joby's air taxi service and transferred its aerial taxi division, Uber Elevate, to Joby as part of a broader strategic expanded partnership, which included a significant investment from Uber into Joby's future. This transaction gave Uber an opportunity to capture a portion of the market share for this industry, which is expected to be rapidly growing. Moreover, Joby will leverage its long-term agreement with Blade Air Mobility, an air mobility services provider, and integrate its own services into the Uber application allowing Joby access to a much larger audience than just early adopters.

In addition to being a provider of air taxi services, Joby also designs and manufactures its eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft for its aviation network. Therefore, Joby represents a completely vertically integrated company allowing it the ability to create innovative solutions that include its own aircraft specifically designed to support their aviation services.

Additionally, Joby has an approach that includes a new form of vertical integration called Dual Vertical Integration. Joby is trying to control not only the manufacturing of the Aircraft used in its Air Vehicle Operations but also the Services of those Air Vehicles, by manufacturing the Aircraft itself and working closely with its partner/investor Toyota; rather than outsourcing the manufacturing process for multiple suppliers in the aerospace sector.

Because of this dual vertical approach Joby would likely have a longer wait time for regulatory certification than other players like Archer, which are utilizing third-party manufacturers. However, in actuality, Joby is in the lead when it comes to obtaining certification, and this should be seen as a positive sign for Joby.

FAA Type Certification Progress

On the certification clock, Joby Aviation is now in the final stage of FAA type certification. The company has begun power-on testing of its first conforming aircraft, and management expects FAA test pilots to begin flying that aircraft early next year. That’s a critical catalyst that keeps Joby on track for commercial operations in 2026. 

The successful overseas flight demonstrator events in Japan represent a significant step toward supporting air taxis around the World Expo 2025 in Osaka, and have also given Joby the opportunity to showcase its operational maturity. By December 31, 2025, Joby performed an impressive 850 flights, with a flight distance of just over 65,000 statute miles (approximately 104,600 km). Due to these accomplishments, 2026 appears to be a likely year for Joby's entry into commercial operations.

Furthermore, Joby has demonstrated that international interest is growing (before any FAA approval has been granted), with the announcement of a $250 million aircraft sale in Kazakhstan.

Strategic Alliances: Toyota, Nvidia, Delta, and the Autonomy Edge

The partnerships illustrate the long-term strategy of Investment to succeed Joby stock. Moreover, Toyota has put almost $900 million towards investment in Joby, with active engagement in ramping up the manufacturing of Joby's products. Additionally, Nvidia selected Joby to be the launch partner for its IGX Thor platform in late October, making Joby the only member of Nvidia's autonomous aviation partners in its portfolio. The IGX Thor platform was built to provide the capability to process onboard sensor data in real time, and therefore enhance safety and reliability within the autonomous aviation market.

The sale of its eVTOL research division to Joby has maintained Uber's position as a strategic partner with plans to add air taxis to its existing platform. Likewise, with regard to the mobility aspect of air travel, Delta's collaboration with Joby shows the opposite side (from an airline standpoint) of that relationship. In both cases, the alliances established are examples of the type of relationships you would want when creating an entirely new category.

As of this writing, Joby's stock price is down approximately 26% from its 52-week high around $21, putting Joby's market cap at approximately $14 billion. This is quite expensive for a company generating almost no revenue, and the most difficult challenges of certification, scaling up production and finally getting consumers to adopt the product are yet to be tackled by Joby.

As of Q3 2025, Joby has approximately $978M in cash. Additionally, on October 4th, 2025, Joby raised $576M through an underwritten equity offering, extending Joby’s runway. Joby's available cash is essential because Joby reported a total of about $888M in net losses over the last three quarters and is also spending actual cash developing its pre-profit eVTOL.

If you’re researching whether to invest in Joby in 2026, you’re doing your due diligence because this is not a time to decide about investing in Joby.

The concept of a flying car has historically been the butt of jokes, but aviation technology, particularly eVTOLs, has progressed from theoretical to practical applications, as evidenced by the innovations from both Joby and Archer, who have innovated or advanced rapidly in taking their products to market, therefore potentially providing an entry point to those willing to be patient until the market stabilises.

There are significant risks associated with the eVTOL industry, including delays in obtaining regulatory approvals, continuing production issues, and the possibility that consumer acceptance of eVTOL products may take longer than is generally predicted by most industry analysts.

Additionally, there is a considerable upside associated with this potential market opportunity. It may be worth billions of dollars by the end of the decade with the right partners and funding to take advantage of it. 

While many of the companies within this space have great short-term volatility their stock prices offer strong long-term potential and are often great opportunities for investors willing to hold through volatility.

Joby’s fourth-quarter 2025 Shareholder Letter and Investor Reports confirmed that Joby is on its way to commercialising by the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, which would only be achieved by completing its FAA requirements including demonstrating its ability to fly safely in New York before repeating that demonstration in Los Angeles, while also propagating rapid momentum in Dubai.

Each of these requirements must be completed successfully before Joby can achieve its goal of launching commercial operations by the end of 2025 or early 2026. Initial ticket prices for hub-to-hub air taxis will likely be a couple hundred dollars per person, which is similar to that of some current premium ground transportation services in major congested travel markets.

As is typical of most companies creating new industry categories, Joby may face initial challenges with low revenues and unfulfilled demand while potential customers wait to see evidence of this service’s value before committing to trying it out themselves. However, if they provide an air taxi experience which saves people significant time on their typical daily commute by car, from 1 hour to 10 minutes, it is possible that the switch to the air taxi will happen quickly.

So is this “sell on the news” in 2026? The partnerships that Joby has established with companies such as Uber and Delta, and the double vertical strategy that Joby has with Toyota suggest Joby is not yesterday’s news. If anything, certification could be the starting gun for what matters most to the joby stock price over the following decade: execution as a transportation services company.

For Joby Aviation’s stock price by 2030, use caution with any specific values. Still, it’s relatively straightforward to envision a scenario where if everything falls into place as expected, with their first-mover advantage, successful scaling of their operations or capacity, regulatory victories in strategic locations, significant utilization, and adding routes, this can be one of those names that turn $1,000 into $5,000 by 2030. The 5X multiplier on investment reflects a very high level of risk and potential for transformational returns.

In reality, Joby Aviation is not a stock to trade in and out of, but rather a longer-term thesis to support. In addition, it has meaningful “catalysts” that will unfold in 2026 and later that will confirm whether Joby Aviation’s vision of being the “Uber for the sky” is more than just a cute tagline.