US November Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data both loom【The week ahead】

U.S. stocks retreated last week due to Fed hawkishness and growing AI bubble concerns. This week, key U.S. jobs and inflation reports, plus central bank rate decisions from the UK, Europe, and Japan, are poised to trigger significant market volatility.On the corporate earnings front, Micron Technology, Nike, Accenture, and FedEx are slated to release results. Micron's performance, in particular, will be under intense scrutiny following recent volatility in AI-related stocks.

Key Events Ahead

First Non-Farm Payrolls Report Post-Government Shutdown Due

On Tuesday, December 16, the U.S. will release its first non-farm payrolls report since the government shutdown, reportedly encompassing partial October and full November data. Subsequently, the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in nearly two months will be published on Thursday, December 18, also covering partial October and full November figures.

Economists, based on consensus estimates, anticipate 35,000 new jobs created last month, signaling a continued slowdown in the labor market. Concurrently, the CPI is projected to increase by over 3%.

It's Super Central Bank Week! What Moves Will Japan, Europe, and the UK Make?

On Thursday, December 18, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decisions. Following this, the Bank of Japan will deliver its rate decision on Friday. Meanwhile, central banks in Thailand, Indonesia, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Russia, and Hungary will also release their latest interest rate decisions.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates on Friday (19th), extending its tentative monetary tightening policy. Bank of England (BoE) policymakers are sharply divided on whether to cut rates to stimulate the economy and combat job losses, or to raise them further to fight stubborn inflation. The market anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold rates steady and maintain this stance into next year, primarily because inflation has largely aligned with the 2% target in recent months, and the economy has shown signs of recovery.

Micron Technology, Nike, and Others to Release Earnings

Micron Technology, Nike, Accenture, and FedEx are scheduled to report earnings next week. Micron's performance, in particular, is drawing significant market scrutiny following recent notable volatility in AI-related stocks.

The market expects Micron's DRAM revenue to reach $10.02 billion, a 57% increase, driven by robust data center demand. NAND memory revenue, conversely, is projected at $2.44 billion, growing only 4%. NAND memory refers to storage used in hard drives or memory cards.

Selected Economic Data

Tuesday: US November Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment Change

Thursday: UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (as of December 18)

Thursday: Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate (as of December 18)

Thursday: US November Core CPI Year-on-Year (Unadjusted)

Friday: Japan BOJ Target Rate (as of December 19)

Featured Events This Week

Monday: FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers remarks.

Thursday: ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference.

Friday: BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference.

Corporate Earnings

Wednesday: Micron Technology (MU.O)

Thursday: Nike (NKE.N)

Thursday: FedEx (FDX.N)