Tesla's Dual Bets: Robotaxis and Optimus Could Define Its Next Decade
Key Points
- The robotaxi industry could reach hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue.
- Humanoid robots could lift Tesla’s market cap to $25 trillion.
- Neither will contribute meaningful revenue in the short term, but each could be transformative over the next decade.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has long been recognized as a pioneer in electric vehicles (EVs), but founder and CEO Elon Musk's ambitions extend far beyond selling cars.
Two of Tesla's most audacious projects -- fully autonomous robotaxis and the humanoid Optimus robot -- could reshape the company's long-term growth trajectory.
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While both are still in development, their potential markets are enormous, and success in either could materially shift Tesla's business model from car manufacturing to high-margin services.
Image source: Getty Images.
The robotaxi opportunity
Tesla has promised that once its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology reaches true autonomy, it will launch a fleet of robotaxis -- either operated by Tesla itself or run by owners on a ride-hailing network. The appeal is obvious: eliminate the human driver, and the economics of ride-hailing change dramatically. Margins could jump, utilization rates could soar, and the addressable market could rival that of the world's largest mobility companies.
According to MarketsandMarkets, the global robotaxi market is expected to grow from approximately 617 units in 2021 to roughly 1.45 million vehicles by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 130%. In terms of revenue, Fortune Business Insights projects that the market will grow from approximately $1.7 billion in 2022 to around $108 billion by 2029, representing an 80.8% CAGR over the forecast period.
While these figures reflect long-term ambition more than near-term earnings, they underscore the potential scale Tesla is chasing. Moreover, the tech company has taken steps to reach its long-term ambition. In June of 2025, Tesla quietly launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Rides cost $4.20, the fleet is composed of modified Model Ys, and -- for now -- human safety monitors sit behind the wheel.
Still, the road ahead presents challenges. Tesla still requires regulatory approval, a flawless safety record, and customer trust before it can operate robotaxis at scale. Besides, competitors like Waymo and Cruise have already deployed limited fleets. For instance, Waymo has partnered with Uber to offer autonomous rides in a few cities.
While Tesla is late to the party, it does have an advantage over its peers: vertical integration from AI training to manufacturing, giving it complete control of its services. Additionally, millions of Tesla cars are already running on FSD, providing the necessary data to help train its autonomous driving software.
Optimus: A bet on general-purpose robotics
While robotaxis are an extension of Tesla's autonomy work, Optimus is an entirely different bet: a humanoid robot capable of performing general-purpose tasks. First revealed in 2021, the prototype has progressed from a static concept to a walking, functioning machine that can manipulate objects. Tesla's stated goal is for Optimus to handle repetitive, dangerous, or mundane tasks -- starting in Tesla's factories before being rolled out to other industries.
If successful, Optimus could open a market even larger than the mobility sector. Industrial automation, elder care, hospitality, and household assistance are just a few potential applications. Founder and CEO Elon Musk has even suggested the humanoid robot could eventually outnumber Tesla's cars, becoming the company's most valuable product line. He also predicted that Optimus could lift Tesla's market cap to $25 trillion.
While it's still early days, the economics for this business could be compelling. Tesla could sell Optimus units directly or lease them on a subscription model, generating recurring revenue streams. And because much of the core technology -- batteries, actuators, sensors, artificial intelligence (AI) -- overlaps with Tesla's existing products, the company can leverage its supply chain and engineering talent without starting from scratch.
In other words, there are good reasons for investors to be optimistic about this moonshot project.
What it means for investors
Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus bets share a common thread: both hinge on AI-driven autonomy and Tesla's ability to execute at scale. Neither will contribute meaningful revenue in the next year or two, but each could be transformative over the next decade if the technology matures as planned.
Investors should weigh the high risk against the equally high potential reward. Tesla's core EV business already gives it a strong foundation, but if even one of these moonshots pays off, the company's long-term growth curve could steepen dramatically.
For now, both are speculative -- but they're also the kind of asymmetric bets that have defined Tesla's history. If successful, these new businesses could propel Tesla to become the world's most valuable company.
Investors should closely monitor Tesla as it executes its ambitions.
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Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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